Nomura became the first bank to announce the early redemption of its VIX-linked ETN, the aptly named "Next Notes S&P500 VIX Short-Term Futures Inverse Daily Excess Return Index ETN", which would be redeemed at a 96% discount, i.e., a complete wipeout for investors.
"We sincerely apologize for causing significant difficulties to investors,"
50 dma s&p initial res. if they get abv there no falling back today. so its a potential selling point for those wanting to get out.
Livingston nh 18:30:04 GMT - 02/06/2018
The market internals are much better -- I wonder if anybody has algos turned on w/all the whipsaw moves // Look at February 2016 or August 2015 for a double bottom pattern on a LOG chart -- Bottom #1 may be in and a close tomorrow above 2700 might carry into Thursday// BUT everybody has a different CAUSE of this so there will be no Bells ringing "ALL CLEAR" on Friday // the 40 dma is probably the resistance to set up a test of the lows
This may take a while but as long as the Panic doesn't spread to FX or FI the ranges 2500 to 2800 will hold
(as always CAVEATS apply)
Israel Dil 18:18:00 GMT - 02/06/2018
conclusion: US trade deficit is good news for stocks
dc CB 18:12:13 GMT - 02/06/2018
that use first, second, third MONTH Forward etc VIX futures.
Mtl JP 18:10:41 GMT - 02/06/2018
Post-fact advice, explanation or rationalization here there everywhere
It is only generational
(so insures that trade opportunities repeat)
there were 2 ETF/ETNs based on a Short VIX formula that "rebalanced" the fund at the end of each day. In other words more or less, if the VIX rose the Fund had to Buy to cover short exposure. These are complicated instruments that use first, second, third etc VIX futures.
XIV,the Credit Suisse product went to 0
What they really were was a way for retail to make a Bet. similar to the way CDS, CDS squared, cubed, etc were designed to allow "sophisticated investors" to bet on the mortgage market way back before the implosion in 2007-2008
Mtl JP 18:02:02 GMT - 02/06/2018
Abelask yourself who is paying the old wolf to lend his name to the headline or what is his interest that stox do not continue to crap
Mtl JP 17:58:51 GMT - 02/06/2018
with "one still standing" do you think it is only the crappier - like say 3-rd tier - quality "investments" that are tasting market's vaccination ?
dc CB 17:48:16 GMT - 02/06/2018
one still standing
Mtl JP 17:42:33 GMT - 02/06/2018
Perfect example of the negativity of verbs in past tense:
typically feeling(s) of vague or regretful longing, sad or melancholic wistful expression(s) about nostalgia for the old days
if the next crash is scheduled for potus 45th term, I am almost certain the algos chief cpu to be named Hillary :-)))
dc CB 16:50:42 GMT - 02/06/2018
"Ths is the way the next crash will likely come. The need for yield for pension funds to actually pay their retirees makes them prime targets for bank ideas to create yield. Ideas like "just sell vol". And like those old school sellers of strangles to capture premium, they have been right almost 5 years running. But it takes only 1 time to be wrong, and that pension will blow up."
Yr 13:58 GMT
see that they rolled out Bullard...going for Bullard's Bottom v.02_18????
Mtl JP 15:15:52 GMT - 02/06/2018
"acceleration event" haha who is the literary genius that coined the term ?
more importantly: "Credit Suisse .CSGN.S, the issuer of the VelocityShares ETN (XIV.P), in which it has a 32 percent stake, said it had not suffered any loss on the product." - rtrs
dc CB 15:09:58 GMT - 02/06/2018
dc CB 22:13 GMT February 5, 2018
I SCREAM --- multi Levered most like Flavor of 2017-2018. Baskin and Robbers
XIV, SVXY Halted, News Pending
"ETPs had to buy 282,000 VIX futures to rebalance their short gamma: this is the largest VIX buy in history, dwarfing Friday’s previous record of 78,000."
Credit Suisse: "Since the intraday indicative value of XIV on February 5, 2018 was equal to or less than 20% of the prior day’s closing indicative value, an acceleration event has occurred."
It took 6 years for XIV to go from $11 to $144 and one day for it to implode to zero
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 00:34:52 GMT - 02/06/2018
DC your post was deleted in error. Just did the same to one of mine on the GVI side. It's been a long day.
dc CB 00:21:00 GMT - 02/06/2018
sure Jay anything you say.
Politics has nothing to do with this recent market action.
See you around.
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 00:08:46 GMT - 02/06/2018
DC, let's keep politics off this forum unless it has market impact
dc CB 22:58:49 GMT - 02/05/2018
Israel Dil 22:32 GMT
leave long order ~ $3.50
missing the point about Short Vix ETF/ETN aka I SCREAMS
POOF IT'S Gone --- just like the Cryptos...
'splained on ZH last July.
XIV hit the "termination event"
Combined: Trump will be in office for at least one term.???????
Bet 1:100 he will be reelected!!!!!!
Israel Dil 22:32:07 GMT - 02/05/2018
leave long order ~ $3.50
dc CB 22:25:01 GMT - 02/05/2018
dropping like a rcok
dc CB 22:15:46 GMT - 02/05/2018
SVXY after hours
dc CB 22:13:37 GMT - 02/05/2018
Robo-Adviser Websites Crashed, Cutting Clients Off From Accounts: BBG
I SCREAM --- multi Levered most like Flavor of 2017-2018. Baskin and Robbers
dc CB 21:58:07 GMT - 02/05/2018
a couple of things that the writer fails to mention.
The Democrats have nothing other than We Hate Trump.
The have no viable candidates, Oprah? Joe Kennedy III, Maxine Waters?, Adam Schiff?, Nancy Pelosi? (and after all it's been well over a year since Hillary Lost)
The Anti Trump Memes - Russian Agent, Impeach, Mentally Unstable arguments have been blown out of the water.
Crash the Stock Market and the country will turn against Trump and and and What...throw him out of office because the Voters lost money?
Combined: Trump will be in office for at least one term. Add that to the fact that the Opposition have Nothing to Offer bodes Ill for the future of the US.
Why would you bet money-"invest" (lol) on an ecomony run by a bunch of Idiots.
Israel Dil 21:57:59 GMT - 02/05/2018
sub 30k looks so close
Mtl JP 21:42:27 GMT - 02/05/2018
A really fun piece to read , cynicism n sarcasm and told you so's just oozing from PAUL BRANDUS'
That was fast - all open gaps on SPX into early December are now filled and the 100 dma held // The NYSE declining volume exceeds advancing volume by 32 to 1 on heavy VOLUME (personal note - past two days makes amends for Election Night reversal)
Lucky better than Smart - FX charts were still showing simulations from w/e with wrong/different MAs -- didn't shut down last night and plunged right in this AM
The 10 yr yield dropped so much that the treasury/bund spread is back to 200 - a modest stox rally tomorrow should push the spread higher
london red 20:39:19 GMT - 02/05/2018
when we went under last years high the mkt suddenly no longer was a breakout mkt but a mkt that was actually normal and normal meanings backfilling IS possible. 2600 is an inital sup for a still v strong bull trend. so its the v first real level in terms of end of year thinking. below there you probably have 22/2300 as a major sup.
lkwd jj 20:28:54 GMT - 02/05/2018
looks like large stops were under 2675
london red 20:27:40 GMT - 02/05/2018
s&p was a whisker frm 100dma and a channel from 2016. big hourly tail suggests they will work higher tomorrow
dc CB 20:07:53 GMT - 02/05/2018
Jan's gains POOF GONE
1000 and counting on DJIA....
Livingston nh 20:07:27 GMT - 02/05/2018
SPX wiping out January gains - money flows into "safe haven" treasurys - Mkt internals worse than Friday
dc CB 20:01:03 GMT - 02/05/2018
Jan 2 ESH - Emini March Opened the year at 2675 - Opened Jan 29 at 2874....current 2684
Israel Dil 19:38:06 GMT - 02/05/2018
nice trading combo nh you run there
Livingston nh 19:07:16 GMT - 02/05/2018
SPX making a run-up towards 40 day MA after breaking morning low - chop-chop into 3:30 and then set-up for Turnaround Tuesday (still gaps below tho)
Treasurys holding onto slim gains as yields slip - the EUR trying to close above the 21dma but the 4 hr chart has 1.2350 (89 ema)
WTI below 64 w/ CAD and NOK responding accordingly
Mtl JP 15:13:26 GMT - 02/05/2018
dc CB stunning .. someone like sensationalism ya ?
WFC has around 270,000 overhead employee liability
Pundits are frothing that janet's "punishment" is an equivalent to $400,000,000 fine
Do you think WFC can not find 6500 $60,000/yr overhead turfees to just b/even ?
dc CB 15:12:00 GMT - 02/05/2018
HvyWt APPL bounces off 200dma up over $3...
turns all three indexes
dc CB 15:01:05 GMT - 02/05/2018
Following Friday's stunning announcement by the Fed penalizing Wells Fargo, and effectively quasi-nationalizing America's largest mortgage lender (or maybe not largest any more), ordering it to "stop growing" until its gets its criminal house in order
ask yourself... where will the 3, 4 directors recycle themselves next to spread their operating dna code ?
u want to clear of TB infection u got to disinfect until all the bacteria are dead.
dc CB 14:05:56 GMT - 02/05/2018
Livingston nh 12:53 GMT
jp - this replacement of directors seems pretty extreme interference.
They screwed their own customers!!!!
The Fed is forcing Wells to find three new directors by April and one more by year end, following through on a threat made last July. That is a necessary but far from sufficient condition for effecting real change at the bank, which has the hallmarks of having created a toxic culture that will take a concerted effort to change. However, with a CEO who was promoted internally, Tim Sloan, there’s every reason to expect that all will happen are cosmetic changes, and Sloan’s conduct to date is consistent with that.
CNN reported last fall:
Wells Fargo now says it has found a total of up to 3.5 million potentially fake bank and credit card accounts, up from its earlier tally of approximately 2.1 million. In other words, there are two-thirds more fake accounts than previously realized.
anyway to know if some hedge funds to be exposed for less supply due to Wells Fargo "affair"?
Livingston nh 13:42:50 GMT - 02/05/2018
and unlike a FINE it is still tax deductible
Mtl JP 13:39:49 GMT - 02/05/2018
again... the short-term "indirect FINE" can be viewed as a consulting "fee" in the longer term, but in the market's myopia that view's time has not yet come.
Livingston nh 13:26:16 GMT - 02/05/2018
jp - reorganization of assets (in order to make new loans) will cost them so it is an indirect FINE - the timing as Yellen bows out is "unusual"
Mtl JP 13:16:22 GMT - 02/05/2018
nh right now market players fuss over that the Fed is preventing the bank from growing assets, meaning WFC cannot write any new loans.
However, that janet and gang decided to limit growth until things like risk management catch up .... is doing the bank an unwitting favor of improving (or at least not worsening) its at risk profile.
Israel Dil 12:56:19 GMT - 02/05/2018
the reaction (or no reaction) from Wells Fargo makes them look like kid caught with his hand deep inside the candy jar.
Livingston nh 12:53:49 GMT - 02/05/2018
jp - this replacement of directors seems pretty extreme interference - a warning shot or a NEW policy?
Mtl JP 12:50:55 GMT - 02/05/2018
as the hyenas are out
07:47 Wells Fargo stock price target cut to $50 from $65 at RBC Capital MarketWatch
07:47 Wells Fargo downgraded to underperform from outperform at RBC Capital MarketWatch
07:46 Wells Fargo downgraded to underweight at J.P. Morgan
Mtl JP 12:49:20 GMT - 02/05/2018
Janet's BTFD parting gift ?
Wells Fargo's stock plunges 7.9% premarket after Fed sanctions
Livingston nh 12:18:12 GMT - 02/05/2018
Sorry - 10 yr spread should read 218 not 118
Livingston nh 11:52:00 GMT - 02/05/2018
Maybe fade the gap open for an attempt to fill the gap before lunch time (London close) - then another downmove to test the low
The 2yr treasury has been relatively stable but yield is still below 3 Fed hikes -- ISM services (prices and employment) might light the fire // meanwhile the 10 yr treasury v. bunds spread has widened again - a move above 118 should help dollar
Cable coming up to March anniversary w/ little to show from brexit confusion as the clock ticks - 1.3860 first target
Mtl JP 11:33:34 GMT - 02/05/2018
Wall Street selloff spreads to Asia; Nikkei has worst day in more than a year
FTSE 100 heads for 2-month low as global stock rout continues
U.S. stocks poised for fresh selloff as Dow futures slide over 100 points
this round I bet on ccys, commodities and VIX to generate much better equity gain than stocks. the geopolitical "money values" do not mirror well anymore through stocks, US stocks stocks are total hoax and their "value" is no longer picture of reality. politicians worldwide with their central bankers picked stocks to act as evidence to serve their narrative. useless (no money) in trading US stocks as ccys movement to wipe the net/net changes in stocks pricings.
btw, NOK vs (almost) all is buy on dips.
dc CB 03:17:28 GMT - 02/03/2018
the 5ver. vely low margin/buck like $600+/-per
Trendy Friendy...like PeeWee's PlayHouse...Hello Trendy Frendy how much Money have you made for us today?
Mtl JP 00:01:26 GMT - 02/03/2018
CB the better news in that cnbc link is that "The benchmark 10-year yield rose to 2.85 percent." Hava Nagila !
dc CB 22:21:33 GMT - 02/02/2018
Dow plummets 666 points, capping worst week in 2 years
dil - this is the first SPX close below 21 dma since mid- November and it bounced off the 40 day -- now the 40 day is a bit below 2740 and just below a gap ~2740// the big gap is the opening rally of the New Year down at 2680 w/i range of the rising 100 dma // a lot of chop before that and then a test of the low w/ a higher MACD -- 3 to 4 weeks?
The Millenial Plunge Protection Team --triggerd and last seen clutching stuffed bears and sucking on Janet Yellen commemorative "binkies" that were handed out this morning at her retirement party, with a note attached:
if ~2750 acts as base for rally towards 3k then it's probably a new world we live in...
dc CB 21:09:59 GMT - 02/02/2018
dc CB 20:08 GMT January 27, 2018
COT - Commitment of Traitors.
(a Play on WORDS) --- coming to a head soon, as the seige on the Trump presidency enters the End Game phase (chess reference here)
dc CB 03:16 GMT January 29, 2018
This week shud be a wild ride. Perhaps the only thing that cud be a sure-bet is that Volitility will rise - may spike - may go to the moon, crushing all the Short Vol positions out there in all those ETFs ETNs double and triple scoops of the many flavors of Shrt Vo---I SCREAMS that your local confectioner offers.
Israel Dil 21:03:24 GMT - 02/02/2018
potus 45th gonna tweet soon, who is going to get the blame for today's stox down day?
london red 20:53:15 GMT - 02/02/2018
simply...s&p needs to trade within last years range...thats below 2700. initial sup which is prob the only area to buy is c. 2600.
Livingston nh 20:51:33 GMT - 02/02/2018
Into the close the market internals ARE EXTREMELY NEGATIVE -- A/D line is 9 to 1 favor decliners and the volume figures are at Extreme Deadly 10 to 1 (this kind of figure is RARE and usually portends extended period of choppiness and correction)
Yellen leaving Dodge - timing is everything
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