Tue 27 Feb 2018 A 08:55 DE- Jobless B 13:30 US- Durable Goods A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony Wed 28 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP AA 13:30 US- GDP A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 1 Mar 2018 A All Day final Mfg PMIs A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Fri 2 Mar 2018 AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Fed 25bp hike odds for Mar 21: 98% (98%)
10-yr 2.864% +0.5bp
Fut (FV) imp open
SP -6.8 (-5.5) -1.3
DJ -41 (-64) -22.7
10-yr 2.857% -0.9bp
GVI Trader john 10:21:19 GMT - 02/27/2018
Today sees a slew of U.S. economic data, but the Powell testimony will dominate. Markets will be wanting take the measure of the man. the prepared text (13:30 GMT) should tell tell us what we need to know about policy. I expect a signal of continuity.
GVI Trader john 10:56:12 GMT - 02/27/2018
10-yr 2.873% +0.7bp
Mtl JP 13:49:44 GMT - 02/27/2018
biased to sell euro rallies while under 1.2345
and trying to keep it simple
Mtl JP 14:18:47 GMT - 02/27/2018
GVI Trader john 10:21 re "Powell testimony will dominate. Markets will be wanting take the measure of the man."
And the market measure is:_
incompetent... ... smart ... ...giant
Mtl JP 14:31:27 GMT - 02/27/2018
ok... maybe wait for his testimony at top of the hour for the measure
Mtl JP 14:36:19 GMT - 02/27/2018
coincidental at 10am
Conference Board Consumer Confidence 126.5 vs 125.4
gv risk A rating
Mtl JP 14:51:47 GMT - 02/27/2018
200 day 131.23 - still support
london red 15:09:21 GMT - 02/27/2018
euro channel line by 12234, likely to shelter stops. below 12200/05. bigger interest to buy begins 12165 down towards 120. topside 12365 caps the upside short term. abv 12435/40 points to 125. v lrg 2 wk euro calls bought today with a 125 strike, likely a play on ital elction at wkend.
london red 15:12:54 GMT - 02/27/2018
dxy channel 90.19. significant.
london red 15:14:25 GMT - 02/27/2018
Mtl JP 19:19:07 GMT - 02/27/2018
For the record:
..."what we’ve seen is incoming data that suggests that strengthening in the economy. We’ve seen continuing strength in the labor market. We’ve seen some data that will, in my case, add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target. We’ve also seen continued strength around the globe, and we’ve seen fiscal policy become more stimulative."... powell Feb 27 2018
Number of times past tense verbs (we’ve seen) appears: 5x
I challenge jerome and gang to a consistent steady reduction of their $4.4 trillion balance sheet
GVI Trader john 19:19:51 GMT - 02/27/2018
Equities have sold off on Powell. I doubt this was his intention. Chatter he opened the door to four rate hikes. This strikes me as a stretch. He testifies again on Thursday and will have a chance to "correct" any misconceptions he feels the market has taken from from his first appearance.
Unrelated, imho, the EUR is in a liquidating market.
Mtl JP 19:44:18 GMT - 02/27/2018
so john u ready to pronounce on Markets measure of the man or wait till Th ?
GVI Trader john 19:59:14 GMT - 02/27/2018
Let's wait until Thursday to see how reacts to the market reaction to his testimony. So far he has not knocked my socks off, but he had been well prepared.
Mtl JP 20:33:42 GMT - 02/27/2018
Equities may have sold off on Powell ....
Fed Chairman Powell: Market volatility won't stop more rate hikes
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplays concerns over market volatility and says the central bank remains on course for more interest rate hikes -
He appears to heed "Major central banks should press ahead with interest rate increases, the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday, while recognizing that some turbulence in financial markets will have to be negotiated along the way. ... Even if there are some short-term bumps in the road ... whatever we do, we will have to do it in a very careful way,� BIS�s head of research, Hyun Song Shin, told Reuters. JP 09:32 GMT September 18, 2017 link
but he appears to have been well prepared - indeed
thing that remains to be seen is how ready to stick it out he will be on the next market puke
Mtl JP 13:13:37 GMT - 02/23/2019
john 21:52 Feb 19, 2019
Fed Meeting Minutes Wednesday
I believe they are sincere in their intentions, however I have my doubts about their competency to execute their goals.
Trivia about Federal Reserve the responsibility to conduct monetary policy "so as to:
1) promote effectively the goals of maximum employment,
2) stable prices, and
3) moderate long-term interest rates."
That is THREE. Not TWO.
Below is link to Clarida s recent speech in which he makes plenty of mistakes not least of which is his sticking to the concept of centering policy s focus on the 2% inflation - a mistake as a sign of economic growth and not rising prices.
The other issue of course is whether clarida / powell and their over 2000 economist confederates are incompetent as you suspect or if they are just naturally and deliberately evil by misrepresenting inflation.
As I see it offers two things:
a) opportunity for more academic debate by economists
b) elements on which to formulate trading / investment strategies by market participants.
For me b) has more interest.
According to BBGs Jeanna Smialek
Fed Superstars Lay Out a Map for the Central Bank’s Big Rethink
Basically a propaganda planning exercise whereby the Fed Superstars scheming how to bamboozle business and consumer expectations or how to propagandize so that "People would believe that the Fed was willing to leave rates on hold, the idea goes, so growth and inflation wouldn’t drop as much, and voilà. Crisis averted." ... "with simpler policies might be easier to explain to the general public -- and better communication leads to better outcomes." the last according to Jeanna
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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