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GVI Forex Blog  18:46:19 GMT - 04/21/2018  
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Forex trading is all about stops. The Commitment of Traders Report (COT) can be an imperfect, but often useful, "sampling" of market positioning. I would prefer more frequent and precise readings, but we have to live with what we get. The data work for the purpose of getting an idea if traders are positioned long or short and if they are in large or small. Where and how large the stops may be is critical trading intelligence.

The data we monitor are the positioning of large traders who usually are thought of as the "smart money". These data usually may not correlate well with the the various retail trader statistics. Each set of data tells you different things about potential stops.

EUR symbol EURUSD net long positions continue to hold roughly steady above the old 100K ceiling as of Tuesday's close. Over the week the EURUSD has traded a well-worn range. The heavy blue line (once a week spots) provides a useful perspective on the support (or lack thereof) coming from the price action. It traded Friday through its 1.2260 recent low and closed below the psychological 1.2300line.

As the alternate reserve currency twin to the USD, keep in mind EUR positions are not just against the USD. EUR crosses vs. the JPY and GBP are critical. According to EZ PMIs, the European economy might be running out of steam.


EURUSD Commitment of Traders Chart

Commitment Of Traders Report for 17 April 2018 Data






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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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