2:46 All three U.S. stock benchmarks have turned positive for the week with Friday's rally - MarketWatch
GVI17:47:05 GMT - 05/04/2018
Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): jobs report today was consistent with what we've been seeing; wage growth is on an upward trend - CNBC interview - Does not see any rapid inflation on the horizon - His view on neutral Fed funds rate is 2.5% - Sees inflation dropping to 3.5% and inflation modestly overshooting target- Happy to see volatility turn up this year - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trader john 17:04:29 GMT - 05/04/2018
Baker Hughes Rig Count
Total: 1032 vs. 1021 (+11) prev.
Oil: 834 vs. 825 (+9) prev.
euro earlier briefly printed a marginal new low for 2018 before rebounding. cable hasnt yet (13457), but it does have elections going for it today. i thing we've washed out longs for now and we will build tails on the dailies today. weve done nearly ten figs in cable without a proper bounce. we are probably due. elections helping also fact that boe meet is close. they wont hike but that means they can be more hawkish with their tone.
Mtl JP 16:24:53 GMT - 05/04/2018
red 13:37 .. 13535 would ease downside pressure
here we are ...
lets see 1.3540 200day close
dc CB 15:01:29 GMT - 05/04/2018
Apple's hedge fund Reno NV
Mtl JP 14:56:03 GMT - 05/04/2018
apple should become a lending bank
put their cash hoard out at risk and for interest
dc CB 14:50:07 GMT - 05/04/2018
TRUMP SAYS HAS DATE, LOCATION SET FOR MEETING WITH NORTH KOREA'S KIM, WILL ANNOUNCE SOON - RTRS
dc CB 14:46:29 GMT - 05/04/2018
dow futures UP 250pt in 45minutes
dc CB 14:40:25 GMT - 05/04/2018
Buffett Bought 75M Apple Shares During Q1; Total Stake Now Worth $42.5B
APPL up over $6.50 ---- big driver across the indices
Mtl JP 14:28:39 GMT - 05/04/2018
red re GBP (atm 1.3519)
200 day 1.3540 - makes it easy to trade
as risk is well and easily defined
for uP I d need to see 1.358x ++
Mtl JP 14:21:12 GMT - 05/04/2018
usdcad - the "more" words:
if it wont go uP
it ll go down
trgt: apprx pink line
U r n adult. Risk control is your resp *v*
Mtl JP 14:07:06 GMT - 05/04/2018
pic worth 1000 words
london red 13:37:37 GMT - 05/04/2018
poss we have seen the highs for usd on euro and cable pairs. a lot seems to have been washed out on this leg lower. recovery abv 11936 and 13535 would ease downside pressure. a yard of 119 expiries at the cut today.
Mtl JP 13:27:12 GMT - 05/04/2018
would try a careful usdcad short on break down of 1.29
london red 13:26:24 GMT - 05/04/2018
cable barrier at 135 busted. support by 13480. euro sup 11910 held for now further by 11895/97, old fib by 11936 caps
Mtl JP 13:07:57 GMT - 05/04/2018
almost looking like heros pussygrabber and munchkin "stand ready to impose further trade tariffs on Chinese products if Beijing walks away from agreed-upon commitments, according to a reporter at the Wall Street Journal."
Mtl JP 13:03:03 GMT - 05/04/2018
munchkin - waving to the media - claiming good conversations in China... reporting word is that big trade deal "is unlikely to happen," as
some profit taking took place yest by 11936 fib but reaction so far suggestive of little spec short euro possies to be cleared. there are lot of 11950-120 expiries today esp lrg 1.20 around 1.5 yards. may draw. think while 11936 holds euro has chance to do topside stops. mkt clearly has other ideas right now/dont fight the tape.
london red 12:40:25 GMT - 05/04/2018
Mtl JP 12:37:48 GMT - 05/04/2018
short eur 1.1995 for 1.1940/20
aboe 1.20/2020 kills it
GVI Trader john 12:35:03 GMT - 05/04/2018
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Employment April 2018
+164K vs. +185K exp. vs. +103K (r +135K) prev.
Rate: 3.90% vs. 4.00% exp. vs. 4.10% prev.
"On the price front, input cost inflation picked up in April. The rate of increase was strong overall and the second-quickest since June 2015."
“Perhaps the most important development, however, is the upturn in price pressures. Survey evidence indicates that rising demand has allowed increasing numbers of companies to raise prices for both goods and services in recent months." Markit PMI
"National shortage of Class-A drivers and the increased demand for logistics is resulting in an increase in the cost of goods." ISM PMI (Prices 61.8)
The Fed always panics -- anecdotal Beige Book is showing price concerns --- higher employee costs, input costs and rising prices to client/customers (Note -- AMZN Prime)
london red 15:01:19 GMT - 05/03/2018
stops below 200dma cable 13535. barrier at 135 the start of supportive band 13460-135
GVI Trader john 14:38:33 GMT - 05/03/2018
Service PMI sub-component SOMETIMES provides a hint about NFP (due tomorrow)
ISM Employment sub-component
53.6 vs. 55.0 prev.
GVI Trader john 14:38:09 GMT - 05/03/2018
Service PMI sub-component SOMETIMES provides a hint about NFP (due tomorrow)
U.S. Trade Deficit better in March 2018. Good for next GDP revision.
nw kw 12:49:44 GMT - 05/03/2018
--Canada posted its largest trade deficit on record in March, as a surge in imports -- in particular motor vehicles and parts -- more than offset a solid gain in exports.
cad or world fixing books unreal crap to trade///
Livingston nh 12:45:42 GMT - 05/03/2018
Unit Labor Costs rose 2.7% in Q1 - 'real' hrly compensation was -0.1% (inflation is best measured by recent quarter or 2 rather than rear view year) -- so larry lunchpail had his compensation increase fall victim to the Fed's idiot inflation target
GVI Trader john 12:33:05 GMT - 05/03/2018
U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade March 2018
-49b vs. -55.6b exp. vs. -57.6b (r -57.7b) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-4.10 vs. -2.24 exp. vs. -2.70 (r )prev.
So will the EU have 2% inflation by September when purchases will cease? or will the program be extended thru December? will interest rates be hiked before the balance sheet is reduced? -- the rate gap just keeps growing for the next two years
Mtl JP 11:34:50 GMT - 05/03/2018
ECB: "we have expressed our intention to continue with our chosen pace of monthly purchases until we see �a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with our inflation aim�
Our assessment will be based on three criteria for the inflation outlook: convergence, confidence and resilience." praet 29 January 2018
GVI11:16:29 GMT - 05/03/2018
ECB's Praet (Belgium, chief economist): Reiterates council view that have seen a moderation in data; temporary factors might be at work - Cannot declare mission accomplished on inflation
- Source TradeTheNews.com
PAR09:05:39 GMT - 05/03/2018
ECB policies are not working . Mario should try something else .
Gasoline and gasoil prices hitting record highs cutting purchasing power of European citizens .
Real estate prices are so high even the rich have problems buying a house .
And they keep publishing declining inflation figures ? Give me a break .
GVI Trader john 09:03:29 GMT - 05/03/2018
Big miss on EZ HICP. Headline HICP not even close to target.
GVI Trader john 09:01:17 GMT - 05/03/2018
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) April 2018
yy: +0.70% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.
yy: +1.20% vs. +1.30% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.
jobs: everybody else in this country doesnt have to suffer for the few that will be without. share the pain, how many jobs can one work to feed the family? the reason why unemployment claims are so low is nobody is getting laid off and if they are, not all jobs are eligible to claim. most have restrictions as to how long you must work to be eligible. minimum wage is what killed this country... you get paid what your worth to the company. whatever your skin color or ethnicity is. im for equal rights, but companies should also have right to pay what they can afford. how many people are really unemployed? much higher than the govt will admit to. jobs went to china, india, and the mexicans living here. why ? because they have no benefits and get paid in cash. true they quit without 2 weeks notice, but they are not lazy .when they work , theyre highly qualified. diligent, responsible.
dc CB 19:59:42 GMT - 05/02/2018
Trump Formally Nominated For Nobel Peace Prize
A group of 18 GOP lawmakers led by Rep. Luke Messer of Indiana, have signed a letter formally nominating President Trump for the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.
Mtl JP 19:35:51 GMT - 05/02/2018
john 18:28 - I think the pundit dom collective is mis-defining symmetric - particularly in light of Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. B A L A N C E D.
When something is a symmetric objective it means it is equally subject to a response when - in this case inflation - is too low OR too high.
So ... the original 2 rate hikes are now equally subject to become zero as four. (2 +/- 2) as jerome and gang appear keen on makinging dunces out of willing pundits.
Livingston nh 19:25:29 GMT - 05/02/2018
SPX at low of the day - if the buyers of FI turn on the Fed we can have a Summer meltdown
Mtl JP 19:11:41 GMT - 05/02/2018
jj re thank you saudi arabia: u r barking at useful idiot tree
just few days ago CNN wolf lamented: But there's a lot of jobs at stake, if we stop selling warplanes...
just as shameful as that goul =500000 dead Iraqi Children was "worth it"= albright . and probably more.
Livingston nh 19:05:51 GMT - 05/02/2018
Tomorrow morning the Service sector of the ISM is reported and the Q1 Productivity/Costs report -- if services report follows Mfg w/ higher costs and tight labor we can't blame commodities - markets are fickle
CPI @2.4% still ahead of the FED - so 3 hikes just to get even
PAR19:02:54 GMT - 05/02/2018
FED to hike in June as US economy is booming and inflation to move above FED target.
ECB should follow FED example . French fuel prices are hitting new record highs every week.
lkwd jj 18:53:09 GMT - 05/02/2018
hard to see inflation stay down. last time fuel costs went up, ups and fedex and everybody else jumped on the wagon and passed the cost on to either buyers or sellers of goods.granted oil was above a buck , but relative to where it was its up alot. free shipping was a thrill ! we havent gotten to memorial day and gas is bumping up to 3 bucks.thank you saudi arabia. get your wallet ready not for the pinch but the squeeze.
Belgrade Knez 18:46:32 GMT - 05/02/2018
london red 18:45:18 GMT - 05/02/2018
absolutely ahe. cos of the supposed wages&inflation relationship. a soft ahe on friday and usd likely lower even if nfp headline 200k. it probab wont change trend but will be an excuse to run weak shorts/take profit. we will see tho as just a rumour.
Mtl JP 18:44:15 GMT - 05/02/2018
red so can we safely (haha) eliminate 5 hikes and adopt - maybe - 2 ?
no whisperer but I am leaning to think jerome delivers appro 0 hikes this yr
Belgrade Knez 18:43:00 GMT - 05/02/2018
which one more important: ahe or nfp?
london red 18:41:18 GMT - 05/02/2018
some whispers that fridays data may disappoint. not so much nfp but ahe. they get some of this in advance dont they.
Mtl JP 18:37:37 GMT - 05/02/2018
or jerome s gang is using The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for March of 1.5%
london red 18:36:48 GMT - 05/02/2018
i remember the days when you could hear the uk rate decision, go for a cup of tea, come back then make the trade. plenty of time. these days its fade the fade. but today usd had nowhere to go on this statement. they are lining up to sell any blip but nothing new in statement so little noise. still, we got noses abv 200dma for a short while which is better than you US session folks got to see today. but does indicate (little bounce) mkt ready to dump more.
dc CB 18:32:32 GMT - 05/02/2018
fast and furious 30mins of Algos "without the benefit of the thought process", trading on code written by teenage wiz kids.
back in the day when meat-brains rather than silicon made trading decisions, the rule of thumb was that the first 30mins was always the wrong way to go.
GVI Trader john 18:29:08 GMT - 05/02/2018
Focus of the analysts on the word "symmetric". Suggesting no rush to tighten aggressively and that inflation will be permitted to run "hot"...
GVI Trader john 18:28:38 GMT - 05/02/2018
Focus of the analysts on the word "symmetric". Suggesting no rush to tighten aggressively and that inflation will be permitted to run hot...
london red 18:25:53 GMT - 05/02/2018
the fact that there is no presser prob won it. i think otherwise they would be a bit more hawkish. but at risk of being misread, they stood still, while mkt poss slightly ahead, so a little pullback. so far contained. but we have move a long way in usd and its nfp wk. some profits will be taken ahead of a tricky number (goes for headline as well as ahe)
Mtl JP 18:21:20 GMT - 05/02/2018
reading the release one could think janet wrote it: overly prudent and gutless OR
did not get the green light from soldmanygaffs
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.
Implementation Note issued May 2, 2018
london red 18:08:40 GMT - 05/02/2018
maybe if below 2.959 on the 10 can accelerate
london red 18:03:56 GMT - 05/02/2018
wkly kijun and fib by 12054 which is still below yest high yet enough to take london am high. key is close +/- 200dma
london red 18:01:47 GMT - 05/02/2018
doesnt appear to kick us on rather keeps track. whether its enough for mkt we shall see, but risk of some profit taking
GVI Trader john 18:00:21 GMT - 05/02/2018
U.S. Fed Policy Decision May 2, 2018
Fed Funds Target Range unchanged at 1.50-1.75%
UK core cabinet said to make no decision on post-Brexit customs during ministers meeting - press
- Prime Min May during meeting told minister that the UK will leave customs union - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI17:39:52 GMT - 05/02/2018
UK core cabinet said to make no decision on post-Brexit customs during ministers meeting - press - Prime Min May during meeting told minister that the UK will leave customs union - Source TradeTheNews.com
uk cons pmi soon. weather in uk last month was colder than average, so some talk of a miss but after last months 47 print, it will take some doing to go lower. anything below 50 however wont help the tone for gbp. still 8835/40 is the initial key topside level.
GVI Trader john 08:01:45 GMT - 05/02/2018
EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs April 2018
mfg: 56.2 vs. 56.0 exp. vs. 56.0 flash
mfg: 58.1 vs. 58.1 exp. vs. 58.1 flash
mfg 53.8 vs. 53.4 exp. vs. 53.4 flash
APPLE REPORTS NEW $100B BUYBACK PROGRAM,
BOOSTS DIVIDEND BY 16%
everthing else takes a back seat to this
GVI19:30:37 GMT - 05/01/2018
Bank of Canada's Poloz: current policy rate is well below neutral rate; moving too slowly on rate hikes would mean further accumulation of household debt and rising vulnerabilities
- Higher rates will cool demand more effectively than before
- More confident that less stimulus will be needed over time
- NAFTA talks and tougher mortgage rules won't last forever; as they fade the need for stimulus will shrink
- Outlook for inflation is good in spite of household debt; good reason to think we can continue to manage risks of debt successfully
- Policy stimulus leads to a buildup of debt over time, whether public or private; excessive debt levels create a vulnerability
2.00% is the target for PCE deflator, not the limit. The Fed has gone to great pains to make clear that 2.00% is a symmetrical target (above or below). Furthermore it was a base (y/y) change that boosted the data. Fed will not respond at this level.
GVI15:10:54 GMT - 04/30/2018
Atlanta Fed forecasts initial Q2 GDP at 4.1% - The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on April 30. - Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 14:53:46 GMT - 04/30/2018
re Core PCE Defl +2.00% vs. +2.00% = RATE HIKE !!!
or .... ?
GVI Trader john 14:02:04 GMT - 04/30/2018
U.S. Pending Homes Sales March, 2018
0.40% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +3.10% (r +2.80%) prev.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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