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bali sja  04:10:08 GMT - 05/28/2018  
yes, for sure...Mario will send Italy's economy into Zimbabwe


lkwd jj  03:52:09 GMT - 05/28/2018  
maybe super mario should leave ecb and become president in italy, hes doing a great job for the euro.......


GVI Trader Jay Meisler  00:49:12 GMT - 05/28/2018  
As I posted earlier on the GVI Forex (Amazing Trader) Forum

Market expected the worst from Italy over the weekend and what it got is uncertainty.

So a bit of a surprise so far benefiting the EUR


GVI Trader 23:51:00 GMT - 05/27/2018  
ROME (Reuters) - Italy’s president is expected to ask a former International Monetary Fund official on Monday to head a stopgap government amidst political and constitutional turmoil, with early elections looking inevitable.

President Sergio Mattarella has called in Carlo Cottarelli after two anti-establishment parties angrily abandoned their plans to form a coalition in the face of a veto from the head of state over their choice of economy minister.

In a televised address, Mattarella said he had rejected the candidate, 81-year-old eurosceptic economist Paolo Savona, because he had threatened to pull Italy from the single currency.

Italy's president calls in former IMF official amid political turmoil



GVI TRADER 20:31:04 GMT - 05/27/2018  
ROME (Reuters) - Italy’s efforts to form a government broke down on Sunday after the president rejected a eurosceptic pick for the key economy ministry, triggering a potential constitutional crisis and opening the prospect of fresh elections.


Bali Sja  15:42:10 GMT - 05/27/2018  
So what...so you sell euro forever!


Mtl JP  14:00:58 GMT - 05/27/2018  
DLR/X 94.18
-
Thanks for that timely Moody's seeks ... Moody's Warns ... Moody's cautions ... of "significant risk of a material weakening"

But what does it practically mean for :
- risk of contagion
- implications for the euro
- implications for the usd
- potential for repricing of current 100% odds of jerome hiking rate on borrowing usd in june

In other words: So-What __


GVI Trader 11:09:24 GMT - 05/27/2018  
26 May 17:20 (KR) North Korea state news: leader Kim expressed "his fixed will" for a summit with Pres Trump; Kim and S Korea Pres Moon agreed to high level talks on June 1st

- Kim and Moon had in depth discussions about 'denuclearization' and agreed they should have frequent meetings in the future; reached a "satisfactory consensus" during talks

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader 11:08:23 GMT - 05/27/2018  
26 May 15:30 (IT) Moodys puts Italy's Baa2 rating on downgrade review Moodys says Italy faces "significant risk of a material weakening" in its fiscal strength given the plans of the new anti-establishment coalition government, which threatens to reverse some prior reform efforts. Moody's seeks more clarity on the new government's plans, which include a flat tax, increased spending and challenging the EU's budget rules.

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader 18:33:40 GMT - 05/25/2018  
13:46 (IT) Five Star Party source: there are no disagreements with the Northern League over potential cabinet team - press
- League source: affirms League position that Savona should be Econ Min; there's no dispute with FIve Star party

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader john  17:07:52 GMT - 05/25/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count


NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total: 1059 vs. 1046 (+13) prev.
Oil: 859 vs. 844 (+15) prev.

Canada: 81 vs. 83 (-2)


TTN: Live News Special Offer



GVI Trader john  14:01:12 GMT - 05/25/2018  
University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final May 2018



ALERT
98.0 vs. 98.8 exp. vs. 98.8 preliminary

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer


london red  13:57:53 GMT - 05/25/2018  
hey just be happy u got to sell 11685 from the blip. nxt sup 11625/35 maybe yet see 11665 to fade during nxt hr for that 25/35 tgt. a channel sits around 18 if overshoot.


dc CB  13:55:08 GMT - 05/25/2018  
JP
10Y ---ZNM8 -10Y futures ---current 119'31

W/ $TYM8 break 119-18 on NK "news," targeting 27+, then 120-07. Move by Fri would put 91% of put expiries OOTM and 40% calls ITM.

TWEET



GVI Trader Jay Meisler  13:53:23 GMT - 05/25/2018  
Italy 10 year now 2.54% (Spain 1.504%) --> driving EUR lower

US and German yields are seeing the flight to safety as well as EURCHF and EURJPY


Mtl JP  13:38:41 GMT - 05/25/2018  
re in relative agreement:

"Our assessment will be based on three criteria for the inflation outlook: convergence, confidence and resilience." praet 29 January


GVI Trader Jay Meisler  13:35:04 GMT - 05/25/2018  
This was a case where news algos reacted to the headline and details were less definitive.

The pop setup the new low that is probably dependent on 1.1650 holding to check the downside.

Next Amazing Trader target remains at 1.1552

The Amazing Trader


GVI Trader Jay Meisler  13:03:13 GMT - 05/25/2018  
EURUSD popped on this:

08:54 (EU) ECB sources: ECB policymakers are in relative agreement over ending QE this year, despite slower growth and worries about Italy - press

- Pace of rate hikes could be affected by weaker growth; sluggish data raises the risk of delays in raises
- Could raise headline inflation forecast in June on higher oil prices and weaker Euro; growth seen cut and core inflation unchanged

- Source TradeTheNews.com


Mtl JP  12:35:56 GMT - 05/25/2018  
10yr at 2.95 % but looks like folks running towards liquidity


GVI Trader john  12:31:22 GMT - 05/25/2018  
Durable Goods Orders April 2018




NEWS ALERT
Headline: -1.70% vs. -1.40% exp. vs. +2.60% (+2.70) prev.
Ex-Trans: +0.90% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.10% prev(+0.40%).






TTN: Live News Special Offer



Livingston nh  12:27:10 GMT - 05/25/2018  
IMF popping up on radar screen in Argentina, Turkey - next look for banks and other holders of debt/currency to show up as scramble to get out begins

Strengthening dollar, rising rates and oil price are hitting EM despite Powell's complacent attitude

Erdogan likely to respond to domestic turmoil by blaming "outsiders" - see who he picks for the Donkey tail


GVI Trader Jay Meisler  12:12:16 GMT - 05/25/2018  
08:04 (ES) Spain PM Rajoy: No intention to call for a snap election at this time; motion of no-confidence goes against Spain's political stability, economic recovery; based upon a falsehood
- Want his govt to complete it 4-year mandate
- No govt members was among the corruption convictions
- Recent budget approval gives the country stability

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader Jay Meisler  12:03:52 GMT - 05/25/2018  
TTN reporting that the Spanish PM is due to speak, presumably on the no confidence talk


Mtl JP  12:00:32 GMT - 05/25/2018  
USDX back N of 94
says where the bid is


UK JY  11:58:27 GMT - 05/25/2018  
Look at the EZ peripheral bonds


london red  11:53:26 GMT - 05/25/2018  
after top of hour shud be able to fade 11680/85 test with modest stop abv days high


Singapore SC  11:51:44 GMT - 05/25/2018  
Any news? out?


dc CB  10:35:07 GMT - 05/25/2018  
Khalid Al-Falih said OPEC and Russia are prepared to adjust policy in June...
"The anxiety of consumers is now a concern to us"

FALIH: LIKELY TO BE A GRADUAL OIL SUPPLY BOOST IN SECOND HALF
FALIH: `WE WILL DO WHAT IS NECESSARY IN JUNE' OPEC MEETING


dc CB  10:06:18 GMT - 05/25/2018  
NORTH KOREA SAYS CURRENT SITUATION REFLECTS DESPARATE NEED FOR SUMMIT

NORTH KOREA SAYS TRUMP'S SUMMIT CANCELLATION IS UNEXPECTED
NORTH KOREA SAYS IT'S WILLING TO MEET WITH U.S. AT ANY TIME
NORTH KOREA SAYS IT IS STILL WILLING TO RESOLVE ISSUES WITH UNITED STATES WHENEVER, HOWEVER


Mtl JP  09:57:09 GMT - 05/25/2018  
CB take a bow
kudos


dc CB  09:50:14 GMT - 05/25/2018  
dc CB 12:13 GMT May 24, 2018
Thursday Trading Checklist For 24 May 2018: Reply
At exactly 7AM the Crude was hit with selling knocking it into the 70 handle - 50 cents in 15 mins.
Will we see the 69 handle before the end of trading Friday.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WTI Crude
6940


GVI Trader 09:46:48 GMT - 05/25/2018  
Crude oil is lower:

05:29 (SA) Saudi Oil Min Falih: Smooth raise in production needed to avoid shocking the market; anxiety level of consumers is a concern to us - St Petersberg conference comments
- Looking at various scenarios for increasing supply

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader john  08:35:33 GMT - 05/25/2018  
U.K. 1Q18 GDP unrevised..
U.K. GDP chart


GVI Trader john  08:33:11 GMT - 05/25/2018  
UK GDP-- 1Q18



-- NEWS ALERT --

QQ +0..10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
YY +1.20% vs. +1.20% exp. vs. +1.20% prev.


RELEASE: U.K. GDP


TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Trader john  08:04:13 GMT - 05/25/2018  
IFO beats expectations.


GVI Trader john  08:00:59 GMT - 05/25/2018  
German IFO Survey May 2018



NEWS ALERT

Climate: 102.2 vs. 102.0 exp. vs. 102.1 prev.
Current: 106.0 vs. 105.5 exp. vs. 105.7 prev.
Expectations: 98.5 vs. 98.5 exp. vs. 98.7 prev.


IFO Climate Survey



TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Trader john  14:30:34 GMT - 05/24/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
(BCF) +91 vs: +90 expected

TTN: Live News Special Offer



Mtl JP  14:28:24 GMT - 05/24/2018  
CB 14:10 in the peddler of used homes world often the gross qtn asked is not what can the aspiring buyer afford but a more refined one asking what monthlies can the prospect afford . gimme $1/week payments and I sign an infinite deal type thing. But it is not exclusive to just home peddlers - recently some country issued 100-yr bond *-*
and found takers


dc CB  14:10:22 GMT - 05/24/2018  
D'OH!!!!!

NAR: "home prices keep climbing above what many home shoppers are able to afford.”


GVI Trader john  14:01:39 GMT - 05/24/2018  
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) April 2018



ALERT

p.a. s.a.: 5.460 vs. 5.660 exp. vs 5.600 (r. ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer



HK [email protected]  13:56:49 GMT - 05/24/2018  
*
Anyone who has this medal now... wow. Commemorating a non existing event.


HK [email protected]  13:54:42 GMT - 05/24/2018  
 
*
So what will happen with the commemorative medal.


GVI Trader 13:46:30 GMT - 05/24/2018  
09:44 (KR) Pres Trump sends letter to North Korea's Kim: says inappropriate to have summit at this time; looks forward very much to meeting some day
- Says Kim should call or write if he changes his mind


- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader john  12:31:26 GMT - 05/24/2018  
US Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT

234K vs. 220K exp vs. 222K (r. 223K ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer




GVI 11:47:21 GMT - 05/24/2018  
ECB ACCOUNT OF THE MONETARY POLICY MEETING (APR MINUTES): Broadly agree that inflation progress was insufficient; caution needed as economic outlook is more uncertain - Q1 slowdown partly due to one-off factors but broad-based - More pronounced weakening of demand cannot be ruled out as capacity constraints are more pronounced - Reiterates view that inflation to rise towards target in the medium term; strengthening nominal wage providing some comfort - Trade woes could trigger disorderly FX moves and volatility - Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader john  08:31:22 GMT - 05/24/2018  
U.K. Retail Sales April 2018



-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: +1.60% v +0.70% exp. vs. -1.20% (r -1.10%) prev.
x-fuel & autos
mm: 1.30% v +0.40% exp. vs. +1.10% (r +1.30%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer


PAR 19:01:23 GMT - 05/23/2018  
FED more interested in a booming stock market than in fighting inflation .


Livingston nh  18:54:45 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Fed promises for one year out but confidence exceeds competence - "this time is different" (yield curve) - Dudley's next meeting is his last, replaced by R* Guru Williams


"accommodative", "gradual" and lower for longer -- snowflakes that may not survive the Summer


GVI 18:21:31 GMT - 05/23/2018  
FOMC MINUTES FROM MAY 2ND MEETING: FEDERAL FUNDS RATE COULD REACH NEUTRAL LEVEL 'BEFORE TOO LONG' IF RATE HIKES CONTINUED; OFFICIALS SAW TRADE AND FISCAL POLICIES AS SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY
- Modest inflation overshoot 'could be helpful'- See above trend GDP growth through 2020- It's important to monitor the yield curve slope
- Officials saw trajectory of fiscal policy difficult to forecast
- Participants generally viewed the risks to the economic outlook to be roughly balanced.
- Most participants judged that if incoming information broadly confirmed their current economic outlook, it would likely soon be appropriate for the Committee to take another step in removing policy accommodation

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader john  18:13:07 GMT - 05/23/2018  
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. May 2, 2018 Fed Policy Minutes



NEWS ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Mildly dovish


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Mtl JP  17:42:06 GMT - 05/23/2018  
will seek to affirm Italy's place in Europe:
haha NO getting rid of the leach of EU
give me giveme gimmee !


GVI 17:36:30 GMT - 05/23/2018  
taly Pres Mattarella gives PM mandate to Giuseppe Conte; asks Conte to form govt (as expected) - press - Conte: accepts mandate to attempt to form govt; will be a govt of change; will seek to affirm Italy's place in Europe

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI 16:45:33 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Pres Trump: Mexico and Canada have been very difficult in NAFTA negotiations ** NOTE: 05/17 (US) US Trade Rep Lightizer: NAFTA countries are nowhere near close to a deal; will continue to engage in negotiations - Source TradeTheNews.com


dc CB  14:35:30 GMT - 05/23/2018  
and so ends the dream of $90 Crude
And ss the Hi for Gasoline clicks in on schedule ---just in time for Memorial Day Weekend driving.


GVI Trader john  14:31:15 GMT - 05/23/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +5.800 vs. -2.830 exp vs. -1.400 prev.
Distillates: -1.000 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -3.800 prev.
Gasoline: +1.900 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -0.900 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer





Livingston nh  14:03:31 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Although the "flash" releases are usually marketing ploys the ISM and PMI have been reporting accelerating inflation pressures -- today's flash release "May data revealed a sharp and accelerated rise in operating expenses across the private sector economy. The latest increase in average input prices was the fastest since July 2013. Anecdotal evidence mainly cited higher prices for metals (especially steel) and increased oil-related costs during the latest survey period."

The ISM inflation gauges have been signalling 4+% CPI inflation for months - the maladjusted BLS says "no problem"

The CPI (unadjusted) is the single most important financial inflation gauge and the broader GDP deflator is the most important economic inflation gauge

The FED target is based on a narrow insignificant subset of inflation - last Spring May CPI was 1.6% (ar) with declining monthly energy costs - see if Powell stands by his wonky predecessors


GVI Trader john  14:03:04 GMT - 05/23/2018  
U.S. New Home Sales April, 2018



ALERT
662 vs. 680K exp. vs. 694K (r 672) prev.


New Residential Sales



GVI Trader john  13:45:56 GMT - 05/23/2018  
U.S. flash Markit Mfg & SVC PMI May 2018





ALERT
mfg: 56.6 vs. 55.3 exp. vs. 55.6 prev.
svc: 55.7 vs. 54.1 exp. vs. 54.0 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Markit PMI Press Release


kl shawn  09:44:06 GMT - 05/23/2018  
cable below 13370 will take us to 13150-70 by week's close


london red  09:35:49 GMT - 05/23/2018  
coeure on the wires, confident on inflation. hes right of course with higher crude and lower euro its a double tail wind for inflation but will take a period of time to feed thru. nice wick on hourly cangle with high made off former channel. looking good for 117 retest while wick unbeaten.


bali sja  09:25:01 GMT - 05/23/2018  
thanks red, just closed some positions for reload later


london red  09:13:23 GMT - 05/23/2018  
set up could be fade 10dma/tenkan or any intrday rallies abv with stop over 200dma tgt wkly channel under 133.


london red  09:12:03 GMT - 05/23/2018  
going to hard a hard time getting abv 200dma bali, which is by 13565. u will prob get some brexit related headlines over next few days they could spur a rally which can be faded.


bali sja  08:49:52 GMT - 05/23/2018  
any such levels for cable for consideration?


london red  08:44:03 GMT - 05/23/2018  
euro fade 40-50 stop over 118 should work if trend to continue. if euro cannot fall on italy and poor data, then not going to fall is the argument for your stop abv key old fib at 11790.


london red  08:42:57 GMT - 05/23/2018  
there are always idiots on the wrong end of the brexit spectrum, so you need to watch for that if short. better to fade rallies than chase lows.


bali sja  08:36:04 GMT - 05/23/2018  
red, no more reason for cable to rally for the rest of this month then?


GVI Trader john  08:34:07 GMT - 05/23/2018  
UK inflation misses.


london red  08:33:53 GMT - 05/23/2018  
ppi prices saving sterling a bit, clearly crude driven. poss nxt month inflation moves higher.


GVI Trader john  08:32:18 GMT - 05/23/2018  
U.K. CPI April 2018
U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

CPI m/m: +0.40% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
CPI y/y: +2.40% vs. +2.50% exp. vs. +2.50% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer




GVI Trader john  08:02:22 GMT - 05/23/2018  
EZ Flash PMIs May 2018




ALERT
EZ
mfg: 55.5 vs. 56.1 exp. vs. 56.6 prev.
svc: 53.9 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.9 prev.

German
mfg: 56.8 vs. 57.9 exp. vs. 58.2 prev.
svc: 52.1 vs. 53.7 exp. vs. 53.9 prev.

France
mfg: 55.1 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 53.7 prev.
svc: 54.3 vs. 56.5 exp. vs. 56.9 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


london red  14:35:57 GMT - 05/22/2018  
*11773


london red  14:27:49 GMT - 05/22/2018  
former upper channel now sacting as sup at 11873 on the hourlies. thats the downside pivot, but mkt may be waiting for key pmis tom.


GVI Trader john  14:09:38 GMT - 05/22/2018  
U.S. Richmond Fed Index May 2018




NEWS ALERT
+16 vs. +10 exp. vs. -3 prev.


TTN: Live News



GVI 09:35:54 GMT - 05/22/2018  
BOE Gov Carney with members Ramsden, Saunders and Vlieghe - Treasury Select Committee Gov Carney:
- Economy did not evolve in-line with Feb forecasts; reiterates view that Q1 economic slowdown was likely temporary
- Guidance is conditional based upon economic outlook - Households and businesses understand that rates are likely to gradually rise
- MPC has had rigorous discussion of publishing the interest rate path, majority is not in favor as it might feel committed to follow through for credibility reasons even if no

- Source TradeTheNews.com


Livingston nh  15:24:30 GMT - 05/21/2018  
Iran has the NK Playbook - the die is cast // see if NK pulls another rabbit out of the hat in Singapore


Mtl JP  15:21:13 GMT - 05/21/2018  
and what might those pompeo demands be inquiring minds might ask:

{American exceptionalism representative} Pompeo vows US won't allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon: 'Not now, not ever' - on cnbc


GVI 15:13:43 GMT - 05/21/2018  
Iranian Parliament Member: US Sec of State Pompeo demands on Iran are US 'dreams' - press - Another Iranian official says the Pompeo statement shows the US is seeking regime change - Source TradeTheNews.com






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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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