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GVI Forex Blog  07:47:43 GMT - 05/23/2018  
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Wed 23 May 2018
AFlash PMIs
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 24 May 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Fri 25 May 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Wednesday Trading Checklist 23 May 2018

GVI Trader john  08:54:33 GMT - 05/23/2018  
For AT Trading
See the Amazing Trader Live!



This Week: 1.1699-1.1830
Wed: 1.1699-1.1789
Tue: 1.1757-1.1830
Mon: 1.1717-1.1779
Fri: 1.1789-1.1823

Spot EURUSD: 1.1720
Pivot Point: 1.1789

20-day avg: 1.1930
50-day avg: 1.2164
100-day avg: 1.2226
200-day avg: 1.2024

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Fed 25bp hike odds for Jun 13: 100% (100%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.019% -5.2bp
DE: 0.518% -4.0bp
GB: 1.450% -6.9bp

DAX: -195
Implied Open
DJ: -154
SP: -15.4

GVI Trader john  11:11:21 GMT - 05/23/2018  
DJ -152

US 10-yr 3.0105%, -4.9 bp
DE 10-yr 0.508%, -5.0
UK 10-yr 1.461%, -6.2

Mtl JP  11:18:07 GMT - 05/23/2018  
as DLRX at 93,90 challenging previous high

Dubai MA  11:21:00 GMT - 05/23/2018  
What news just came out?

bali sja  11:33:16 GMT - 05/23/2018  
usd is just unstoppable, DX -->100

Mtl JP  11:53:01 GMT - 05/23/2018  
out of interest:
is lower dlryen a reflection of lower 10-yr yield OR japanese heightened geo-pol fear and thus yen repatriation ?

bali sja  11:55:17 GMT - 05/23/2018  
i think the latter JP, judging from other pairs

Livingston nh  11:56:31 GMT - 05/23/2018  
JP - yen tracking NK (and trade?) - the 4hr shows the rollover on tweety bird

Livingston nh  12:18:40 GMT - 05/23/2018  
US 2/10 spread back down to 44 ahead of the FOMC well scrubbed Minutes

dc CB  12:24:15 GMT - 05/23/2018  
the Yen rally started at 9PM with a 40p pop ---looking at Yen Futures. in 1 and a 1/2 hours. then traded sideways until 2AM --and took off ramping with no real retrace until 5:30 another 80 pips.. thru the European morning session. 120 p

not gopolitic fear ot NK or repat.... hope U got some of it.
The Yen takes the prize so far this year for "Most Trendy"
Jan to the end of March ...End of March to ????? still ongoing ----thru June????

Time for the US now....reverse

dc CB  12:30:04 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Auctioning off the 5ver today.
Yest 2Y went of with a yield highest since 2008.

TinHat...overnight CBs took yields down a notch and gave the BigBanks a better price to clear some shelf space so they can help the 5ver not show Poorly.

dc CB  12:44:45 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Japanese margin traders until recently were doubling down on their Turkish bets. They held 323,537 net long positions on the lira against the yen as of May 15, according to data from the Tokyo Financial Exchange. That was up from 266,955 contracts at the end of December.

Lira Plunges as Japanese Investor Exodus Adds to Turkey's Woes

HK [email protected]  12:59:28 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Japanese investors, do not understand this lunatic Erdogan.
They have to understand too, that the US wants to bring him down by this or that way.
Financial is one way.
Clue for the Turkish people; Vote for this sultan and your country will go to the toilet.

Mtl JP  13:03:18 GMT - 05/23/2018  
post Jon E. Hilsenrath who is the current alleged FED whisperer ?
in the meantime GREGG ROB posits that
Fed may float new ideas to market in its minutes
and that

Central bankers likely focused on bigger picture topics

london red  13:11:46 GMT - 05/23/2018  
euro has tested key wkly channel at 11685, essentially a test of the break higher in dec last year. rebounds shud still be faded. 11750 again seems a good fade.

dc CB  13:26:59 GMT - 05/23/2018  
the WSJ this morning writes that executives at the biggest German lender have "zeroed in" on plans to eliminate close to 10,000 jobs, about one in 10 employees, as part of the bank's epic cost-cutting scramble.

Deutsche Bank

Mtl JP  13:36:04 GMT - 05/23/2018  
wsr / trs on ritalin or some new opioid President Trump has yet to tackle?
26 Apr 2018 ... Deutsche Bank AG is planning to cut more than 10 percent of U.S. jobs as it withdraws from businesses where it can't compete - bbrg, BBC +++...

thing to ask is where will all those unproductive (to be kind) turfees go to ply their craft next

GVI Trader john  13:38:36 GMT - 05/23/2018  
JP- Im not sure the Fed has a "whisperer" anymore. I don't recall Yellen or Bernanke "planting" stories in the press as their predecessors did. Also, Hilsenrath has appeared to be as clueless as the rest of us on policy. If anything, it appears to me that Steve Leismann has become the new "golden boy".

Bali Sja  13:46:10 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Jp, buying usdcad 12850-70 for 13150?

Livingston nh  13:47:19 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Have a care - JP is manipulating CAD

Mtl JP  14:02:57 GMT - 05/23/2018  
ya ... manipulating ... fake news
not sure if I posted before about puppy's range so here is a pic in interest of verbal frugality

I think currently it is better to focus on protecting what I have rather than on making $$

nh and I (exchanging trade idea and tactics)

Livingston nh  14:06:47 GMT - 05/23/2018  
jp - hahahahh (spilled coffee) haahaha

dc CB  14:10:46 GMT - 05/23/2018  
GVI Trader john 13:38 GMT
JP- Im not sure the Fed has a "whisperer" anymore. I don't recall Yellen or Bernanke "planting" stories in the press as their predecessors did.
HUH? Under the Obama Regime, the FED (Bernanke and then Yellen) was a political tool. Keeping rates at 0 way beyond what was required. "we will normalize when Unemp drops below 6%, and other lies we were told.

This is no longer the case. If only for the reason that Trump is seen as an interloper in the grand scheme of the CBankers

Mtl JP  14:14:12 GMT - 05/23/2018  
I used to think the FED was under permission spell of GS to yey/ney ok to hike which took janet some time to "get"

Mtl JP  14:22:14 GMT - 05/23/2018  
so pray tell who and for what purpose uses the

Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

Dillon AL  14:26:08 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Bean Counters

Mtl JP  16:14:28 GMT - 05/23/2018  
market zeees on Coeure.s enthusiastic enthusiasm that eu expansion is strong and everywher.

their attempts at building a general posi-perception as they try to prepare playrs for their ending of meddling in market little comical but they - ecb - do deserve credit for trying

london red  16:19:10 GMT - 05/23/2018  
i think what coeure said is right, or at least in the way he said it. it will take time to feed though.
shot across the bows frm turkey CB, may keep try traders honest but doubt will be much to change sentiment generally.

london red  16:44:02 GMT - 05/23/2018  
try moves beginning to filter into other em, some profits clearly now being taken. lets see if they stick into close as fed still to come.

Mtl JP  16:59:16 GMT - 05/23/2018  
sooo .. . there would, after all, appear to be a practical mathematical point at which interest rate does get a grab:
12:30 Turkey central bank move pushes LLW lending rate to 16.5% from 13.5%
12:32 U.S. dollar retreats from record high versus Turkish lira
12:33 U.S. dollar down 0.8% versus Turkish lira
12:41 Turkish central bank hikes lending rate, halts lira drop - MarketWatch

next we need to see how temporary that (3/13.5=22.2% hike) is

dc CB  17:07:10 GMT - 05/23/2018  
the overnight yield supression bears fruit
Yest afternoon the 5 closed at 2.899

auction results: 5Y High Yield 2.864%, WI 2.864%

Dillon AL  17:20:57 GMT - 05/23/2018  
teen interest rates in Turkey or 40% in Argentina. It matters not

Mtl JP  17:29:46 GMT - 05/23/2018  
AL my point is that at some point of massive and fast enough of rate of change it does assert itself. Remember that as it could come in handy elsewhere at a different time.

Mtl JP  17:49:12 GMT - 05/23/2018  
kids... that time again:
housekeeping reminder IF u trade using MT4

Tactical Stuff for MT4
MT's speed negatively affected by
- Number of MT4 running
- Number of Charts opened
- How long MT4 has been running

Posi-effects on speed:
- reduce number of Max bars in history
- disable news
- restart MT

Mtl JP  17:49:12 GMT - 05/23/2018  
kids... that time again:
housekeeping reminder IF u trade using MT4

Tactical Stuff for MT4
MT's speed negatively affected by
- Number of MT4 running
- Number of Charts opened
- How long MT4 has been running

Posi-effects on speed:
- reduce number of Max bars in history
- disable news
- restart MT

london red  17:58:29 GMT - 05/23/2018  
11710/35 initial fading spots if fed talks about overshoot as reason to hold back for longer. not much sup til 11635

london red  18:01:57 GMT - 05/23/2018  
seems around the edges a bit worried about going overboard on hikes etc nothing to hang a long hat on. if rallies, fade.

Mtl JP  18:05:27 GMT - 05/23/2018  
no raging hike bulls type minutes
turning that mester was da one with a hint:
market has it right expecting 2-3 hikes
players zzzz

Mtl JP  18:16:24 GMT - 05/23/2018  
18:15 kashkari yakking

Mtl JP  18:37:26 GMT - 05/23/2018  
so post-minutes players will have some time to justify-trade on u.s. fiscal structurals / interspersed with reactions to President Trump's bellicose outburst antics.
USDCAD still in old 1.2730 - 1.2930 range as no breakout yet
May 30th: BoC rates
June 12-13 FOMC

odds are puppy oscillates until it does

dc CB  18:47:09 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Fed mins offer nothing to the large number of shorts in Treas futures who must roll out of June contracts and into Septs.

PAR 18:49:32 GMT - 05/23/2018  

Mtl JP  19:26:32 GMT - 05/23/2018  
nh 1.2830 = middle of range I keep pointing out
your move next

Mtl JP  19:47:25 GMT - 05/23/2018  
kids ... it is my increasing perception that the USD rally is close to topping out if it has not done so already.
and odds of a correction r growing
plz mind your risk

Mtl JP  19:56:18 GMT - 05/23/2018  
Yield High Today 3.07%
Yield Low Today 3.00%

US 10-YR (US10Y:U.S.)

GVI Trader john  20:25:33 GMT - 05/23/2018  
10-yr 2.990% last. Key psychological level 3.00%...

Mtl JP  22:40:58 GMT - 05/23/2018  
NZD Trade Balance in 5mins

Livingston nh  01:31:38 GMT - 05/24/2018  
jp - re:CAD - the intraday moves of the past two weeks has been frustrating (and costly for selling/buying around flat 21 dma) - I still believe rates conquer all so 1.31 is still first target

re: USD - the move since April is modest given the decline in 2017 - the earlier taper move was based on talk, now we have a tightening Fed - the wkly chart is still in a strong uptrend (the yen is still a weight but...) -- what can go wrong?

bali sja  03:31:14 GMT - 05/24/2018  
i share your sentiment nh re. usd
ultimately rates are the determining factor, everybody is looking after yield which is a rare thing lately
for buy and hold play and less stress usd is the choice, of course intraday and short term noises at overbought levels can produce some two way action but ultimately usd is still going strong on longer time frame
still looking for DX 100

Mtl JP  04:32:55 GMT - 05/24/2018  
yo kids ... note that :

Follow Follow @realDonaldTrump
Will be interviewed on @foxandfriends tomorrow morning at 6:00 A.M. Enjoy!

Mtl JP  13:09:19 GMT - 05/24/2018  
nh 01:31 basically I figure players have discounted june hike so that being baked in dlr's gains support from that corner should be limited

meaning I ll be needing to see a breakout of that old range I mentioned before (1.2730 - 1.2930) In the meantime I maintain my preferred bias to sell usd rallies

Yield - 9:01:49 AM EDT
2.981 %

US 10-YR (US10Y:U.S.)

dc CB  13:26:35 GMT - 05/24/2018  
7yr on the block today.

as noted Mon ... Treas futures roll this week. tomrw Fri - Option on June Futures Expire.

dc CB  14:02:23 GMT - 05/24/2018  
10Y --- 2.964

so what's more impt to Trump et al. The price of money or talks with a defanged RocketBoy.
Having reportedly seen 200 North Koreans die following the collapse of a tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site earlier in the year, Kim Jong-Un has officially (and intentionally) imploded the mountain-side facility overnight. ZH

Test site no more

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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