one ignorant question:
is there a time we know price will not return to expiry price at cut time? .... for example if price goes away certain no. of pips after which we can know it's too far for price to return to the expiry one?
london red 13:43:57 GMT - 06/01/2018
sorry didnt notice...its all a question of feel, picking up on whats going on. on nfp day you get straddle plays and these are defended by the writers giving you natural buying and selling at the extremes of the straddle spread. if data is near f/c and if theres a large expiry somewhere in the middle then the odds are market gets shackled until expiry unless the straddle spread is bust and the mkt moves to another range. also earlier this week you had some brave 1 and 2 wk euro 117 call buyers so writers will have been buying dips to hedge that out.
london red 13:45:57 GMT - 06/01/2018
put it another. pre trump tweet euro was a few pips abv 117. add the straddle spread and it takes you to the days flash low on data. throw in the big expiry at 117 and u see itll take a lot to move away from this zone. same goes for topside. reckon will be hard to move abv 11756 fib today.
Belgrade Knez 13:58:41 GMT - 06/01/2018
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