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GVI Trader john  17:04:10 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 1059 vs. 1062 (-3) prev.
Oil: 863 vs. 862 (+1) prev.

Canada: n/a vs. 112 (+13)

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PAR 14:09:08 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Kim Jong UN hyper boosting US consumer confidence . Well done Mr. president .

GVI Trader john  14:02:52 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index May, 2018

99.3 vs. 98.5 exp. vs. 98.0 prev

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

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GVI Trader john  13:17:15 GMT - 06/15/2018  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization April 2018

Ind Production: -0.1% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.9%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 77.9% vs. 78.2% exp. vs. 78.0% (r ) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

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Mtl JP  13:07:29 GMT - 06/15/2018  
nh above 1.3120 looks to steam uP

Livingston nh  13:03:28 GMT - 06/15/2018  
jp - I have an extra ticket on the 1.40 express - any interest?

Mtl JP  12:59:39 GMT - 06/15/2018  
one angry pair: usdcad
export-oriented poloz polishing woody

Livingston nh  12:49:52 GMT - 06/15/2018  
STOX have bought into the DOOMSTERS mantra about inversion - ANTICIPATION hahaha

Mtl JP  12:36:31 GMT - 06/15/2018  
2,915% down 2.8bps

Livingston nh  12:33:25 GMT - 06/15/2018  
John - all the EXPERTS seem to be so gloomy that it's getting easier to exceed the expectation

GVI Trader john  12:30:48 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Empire PMI June, 2018

25.0 vs. 18.5 exp. vs. 20.1 prev.

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PAR 11:02:05 GMT - 06/15/2018  
German President to mediate . German president says Merkel must stay .

Livingston nh  10:33:29 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Don't believe any rumor until it's OFFICIALLY denied

GVI Trader 10:31:01 GMT - 06/15/2018  
News whipsaw just now

EURUSD fell on this

06:26 (DE) German coalition partner said to have broken alliance in Merkel govt - financial press

and then bounced on this

06:27 (DE) Senior CSU lawmaker refutes press speculation of coalition at risk

- Source

GVI Trader john  09:00:39 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Eurozone final HICP (CPI) May 2018

yy: +1.90% vs. +1.90% exp. vs. +1.90% prev.
yy: +1.10% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.10% prev.

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GVI Trader 16:33:24 GMT - 06/14/2018  
GBP weaker on this headline:

12:20 (UK) Leading pro-EU Tory lawmaker Grieve: govt compromise on Brexit meaningful vote is 'unacceptable'
- Says it was 'inexplicably changed' at last minute, and was not agreed by him

**NOTE: earlier: Reportedly pro-EU Tory rebels propose Grieve amendment in the House of Lords in the event that the govt compromise deal is insufficient - press

- Source

Mtl JP  12:32:30 GMT - 06/14/2018  
..."The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflation remains aligned with the current expectations of a sustained adjustment path."... Monetary policy decision 14 June 2018

GVI Trader john  12:30:58 GMT - 06/14/2018  
U.S. Retail Sales May 2018

Headline: +0.80% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.20% (r +0.40%) prev.
Core (x-autos): +0.90% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +0.30% (r +0.40$) prev.

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US Weekly Jobless Claims

vs. 222K exp vs. 222K (r. ) prev.

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london red  12:03:01 GMT - 06/14/2018  
close below 200hma but 21dma more of a struggle. some room to move further lower given the lrg expire but now depends on draghi.

GVI Trader john  11:57:56 GMT - 06/14/2018  
10yr bund 0.468% -0.7

london red  11:57:46 GMT - 06/14/2018  
200hma 11763. recovery to, yest, triggered rebound. so watch the close in nxt few mins.

london red  11:56:11 GMT - 06/14/2018  
21dma 11725 supported mkt over last wk. shud hold into draghi. lrg 3+ yards expire at the cut however so may draw.

Livingston nh  11:55:21 GMT - 06/14/2018  
Rates steady thru Summer 2019? -- pretty clear FG

Mtl JP  11:48:58 GMT - 06/14/2018  
red 08:51 excellent tactical call
as usual

GVI Trader john  11:48:26 GMT - 06/14/2018  
QE cut to 15bln October to December unexpected.

london red  11:46:35 GMT - 06/14/2018  
11854 caps into draghi. if not 11908 b4/after draghi. then dwn.

GVI Trader john  11:46:32 GMT - 06/14/2018  
European Central Bank (ECB) June 14, 2018


Refi Rate Steady at 0.00%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.25%
Deposit Rate steady At -0.40%

Asset Purchases (QE) per mo cut to 15bn

Press Release: ECB Decision

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GVI Trader john  10:45:46 GMT - 06/14/2018  
EARLIER: Australia May 2018 Employment data missed forecasts. Headline +12.0K with Full-time Employment down 10.6K . Unemployment rate lower at 5.40%.
Australia Employment data chart

PAR 08:55:53 GMT - 06/14/2018  

london red  08:51:52 GMT - 06/14/2018  
euro key fibs today at 11854 and 11908. may overshoot first but later should cap. even if seen mkt could still end up lower. it could be one of those days where its better to travel than arrive. needs to close abv 11854 today to avoid downside and only abv 11908 can you consider a 200dma test. i will be looking to fade rallies today if seen.

london red  08:44:19 GMT - 06/14/2018  
cable res by 13478-80

london red  08:40:07 GMT - 06/14/2018  
cable. 30dma 13423. has kept cable honest over last wk. now abv may be able to biuld. long on test 13423 stop 13396 may work into ecb but profits may need to be taken once presser begins as statement may be hawkish but explaination dovish.

GVI Trader john  08:35:37 GMT - 06/14/2018  
U.K. Retail Sales beat. Keep alive hopes for an August rate hike.

GVI Trader john  08:34:28 GMT - 06/14/2018  
U.K. Retail Sales May 2018


mm: +1.30% v +0.50% exp. vs. +1.60% (r +1.80% ) prev.
x-fuel & autos
mm: +1.30% v +0.30% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.40%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales

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Mtl JP  19:27:56 GMT - 06/13/2018  
probably a good reason jerome casually threw in the "balance sheet shrinking is going smoothly" comment. imagine if reverse were true

Mtl JP  19:24:48 GMT - 06/13/2018  
some define / grade financial stability risks as the degree of ability of the meddlers actions getting (or not) traction in the market

example: imagine ... FED losing control over rates

Mtl JP  19:16:59 GMT - 06/13/2018  
Powell says financial stability risks are 'roughly at normal'
probably best news of the day IF true

but would he publicly and loudly say run for the hills if banking system were about to collapse ??

london red  19:11:50 GMT - 06/13/2018  
dc, usually...but yes more times than not youll get fed, no pun intended!
looks like we stay within triangle (hourly) far attempts on both side to close outside failing

dc CB  19:06:56 GMT - 06/13/2018  
I did not watch presser.
Treas futures bouncing back stox futures too
All is good, I guess.
But as is said The First Move is Always Wrong ---on FOMC days.

Mario gets to put foot-in- mouth, is the next mover?

Tom: Flag Day, US Army Birthday, Trump's birthday. THE 500 page long awaited Inspec Gen's Report. Quad Witching minus 1

london red  18:58:34 GMT - 06/13/2018  
em easing back earlier moves...mkt appears not to be concerned regarding fed overdoing it after powells more dovish conf compared to a hawkish headline.

london red  18:56:58 GMT - 06/13/2018  
euro saving 200hma, long tail on hourly coupled to a few more earlier suggests now mkt focusing on ecb where we may get the opposite reaction. first up then down.

Mtl JP  18:54:37 GMT - 06/13/2018  
Powell: Lot of uncertainty about fiscal policy
says data show no negative impact on economy from trade dispute
Stock market cuts loss as Fed's Powell says central bank 'not read to declare victory' on inflation
declines to comment on ongoing G-7 trade tensions
backs 2% inflation target policy framework, saying hurdles to change it would be high (probably at risk to his job lol)

Mtl JP  18:47:15 GMT - 06/13/2018  
Fed getting closer to neutral policy stance, doesn't know when they will reach it

Mtl JP  18:44:41 GMT - 06/13/2018  
Powell says
- tweak of IOER rate has 'no bearing' on future path of short-term interest rates
- balance sheet shrinking is going smoothly

also downplays projection of four interest rate hikes this year, saying expectations did not change much

Mtl JP  18:42:21 GMT - 06/13/2018  
aha ... reason for lack of enthusiasm about 2%:
Powell says Fed not ready to 'declare victory' on inflation

Mtl JP  18:41:03 GMT - 06/13/2018  
Powell says oil prices will likely push inflation above 2% target, but increase should be 'transitory'

darn ... where is his excitement about banging 2%

Mtl JP  18:39:04 GMT - 06/13/2018  
Fed will hold press conferences after every meeting starting in January, Powell says
02:32 Powell says Fed doesn't want to hike interest rates too quickly or too slowly
02:32 Treasury yield curve flattest since August 2007 after Fed raises interest rates
02:31 Fed's Powell says economy is 'doing very well'

london red  18:34:00 GMT - 06/13/2018  
euro taps sup by 11722/25, a break yields 11682. hourly close at 200hma or higher tgts 118. powell decides

Bali Sja  18:29:47 GMT - 06/13/2018  
More hikes to come. What else you gonna wait? Buy usd

Mtl JP  18:26:56 GMT - 06/13/2018  
the con:

The Fedís dot plot now shows it raising rates three times in 2019 and one time in 2020. The terminal rate remains at 3.4%.

Bali Sja  18:25:41 GMT - 06/13/2018  
Usd is great, just great. Sell euro, buy usd.

dc CB  18:07:39 GMT - 06/13/2018  
RedLined Statement via ZeroHedge

what's different

GVI Trader john  18:01:18 GMT - 06/13/2018  
U.S. Fed Policy Decision June 13, 2018

Fed Funds Target Range raised +25bp to 2.00%-1.75%

RELEASE: Policy Statement

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GVI Trader john  14:39:34 GMT - 06/13/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -4.100 vs. -2.900 exp vs. -2.100 prev.
Distillates: -2.100 vs. -0.100 exp vs. +2.20 prev.
Gasoline: -2.300 vs. +0.100 exp vs. +4.600 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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PAR 12:46:50 GMT - 06/13/2018  
Mama mia .

GVI Trader john  12:32:50 GMT - 06/13/2018  
PPI hotter than expected.

GVI Trader john  12:31:16 GMT - 06/13/2018  
U.S. PPI May 2018

Final Demand: +0.50% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.
Core: +0.30% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% (r. ) prev.

RELEASE: Producer Price Index

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london red  08:37:09 GMT - 06/13/2018  
headline f/c were actually 2.5%, although core hit tgt. yes input prices firmer but often overlooked as not a boe powerpoint fav unliker the cpi.

london red  08:34:50 GMT - 06/13/2018  
eurgbp appears to struggle for air close to 88.5 so fading 8820-30 with a stop abv 8850 may work for a return back to 88

GVI Trader john  08:33:26 GMT - 06/13/2018  
UK inflation data mixed to hotter.

GVI Trader john  08:32:36 GMT - 06/13/2018  
U.K. CPI May 2018
U.K. Charts


CPI m/m: +0.40% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
CPI y/y: +2.40% vs. +2.40% exp. vs. +2.40% prev.

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Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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