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SaaR KaL  20:57:52 GMT - 06/15/2018  
What it boils to guys;
If you do not like it...do not do it!!
Met so many managers and Ministers that look at the glass half empty...so not surprised here today


SaaR KaL  20:52:07 GMT - 06/15/2018  
LOL...Red...
What do you exactly do when you trade?...Not Forecast?
your anticipation of what will happen to the level is not forecasting?...Sorry Red!!


london red  20:30:22 GMT - 06/15/2018  
forecasting and trading r two diff things Kal. if ur tech works for u thats great. i am talking about using robots 4 trading. i prefer to open/close myself, pick ops myself. when hammer goes dwn (and often it does these days thx to algos pulling all the bids at first sign of trouble) u cant beat good old experience. the ability to stay frosty and make the right trade when its gone fast. and i'll tell u something else, at the end of one of those days, u cant get a better feeling. u shudnt like it, but u do.


SaaR KaL  20:14:20 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Look at the glass half empty ...
Is fine...and i really do not care
It is there if you want to use it...ignore my posts if you like... that wont make me upset


SaaR KaL  20:09:09 GMT - 06/15/2018  
 
If you disagree with this cable forecast for this time frame
then do not do it...it is fine!!
the thing is...i can do this in 30 seconds for anything
This is not about cable....it is for anything!!



SaaR KaL  20:05:41 GMT - 06/15/2018  
JP... not about what they can not...maybe just about what they can
A Car a robot...why use it?
You can walk if you like
do your for forecasts then smell all the blood you want
:)


Mtl JP  20:01:17 GMT - 06/15/2018  
re "robots cant smell blood" maybe true in literal sense but a lurking robot, watching for impulses in digits has decent chances of jumping on to lap up some when a jugular opens up and starts to spurt blood.
like a gun that can fire using a motion detector turning on - no need to ask qtn what and why something just happened: just pure pouncing reaction


SaaR KaL  19:56:21 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Sure Red
But why not if it helps?
Give you an idea ... then use your own way to add to it
40 years ago there was no auto pilot on aircraft, does not mean no pilot
So many accountants in companies with General ledger books...no relational database...it is fine!!
:)


Mtl JP  19:53:39 GMT - 06/15/2018  
red no qtn that diff strokes work for diff folks. I even expressed envy re your nose... if only I could clone it *v* . but I consider it a privilege to read your voluntary posts re "smells" in market

to think I started out programming in 0s and 1s (fortran)...
but vulgarization of technology has descended into trading world so that folks like me (the not-in-the-circle types) now pit wits with more savvy technicians and programmers than myself.



london red  19:37:12 GMT - 06/15/2018  
over 2 decades in the game...you can't beat a good nose...robots cant smell blood...maybe old fashioned but it works enough for me in that i cant be bothered to look elsewhere


Mtl JP  18:42:40 GMT - 06/15/2018  
What works for me: I was inspired pickup coding and to robotize my trading by
gc sf 01:44 GMT March 10, 2015
...Personally I have mentioned it a few times - I make next to no trading decisions any more sitting here watching the markets- I have EA's that generate the trades based on my strategies .. I just monitor the size + direction ..... I prefer it this way in a more modern trading environment.... there is no extra reward for experience any more.
post.

A big weakness I used to have was that I would put on trades without SL or have a tendency to move it.

Being focused on technicals of my comp system (stability and speed primarily) and robot "I just monitor the size + direction".


Livingston nh  18:24:41 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Never - oil is like the EUR -fade the headline


SaaR KaL  18:06:59 GMT - 06/15/2018  
They got Displaced Moving average?
Most people have no idea how to use this
DMA is excellent only if you use half the periods as displacement
if using 50 periods sma...displace by 25...will give you a good picture


SaaR KaL  18:00:49 GMT - 06/15/2018  
nh you have a put on that strike?


Mtl JP  18:00:19 GMT - 06/15/2018  
just MQL4


SaaR KaL  17:59:02 GMT - 06/15/2018  
It will go there after it visits 74
cause after 74... 54 is among 74 to 30
It wont touch 54 this coming 1-3 months
if it does...ignore my posts


Livingston nh  17:55:26 GMT - 06/15/2018  
KAL - how about its goin to 56 and THENWHAT?


Livingston nh  17:55:18 GMT - 06/15/2018  
KAL - how about its goin to 56 and THENWHAT?


SaaR KaL  17:53:34 GMT - 06/15/2018  
You code JP?if so...what language?


SaaR KaL  17:51:25 GMT - 06/15/2018  
meaning lots of work JP
... took a while to code all this though


Mtl JP  17:50:12 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Kal how serious stuff?


SaaR KaL  17:36:06 GMT - 06/15/2018  
within reason ref to sigma...More sigma the more conservative
use normsdist function
if you use 1 you get 88%
1.4 near 90...etc


SaaR KaL  17:32:54 GMT - 06/15/2018  
JP
Those charts are output of thousands of models BTW...Some serious stuff ha?


SaaR KaL  17:30:33 GMT - 06/15/2018  
from here (67.2...to lower than 63)
Pick near 61 to 74...than crashes to 30


SaaR KaL  17:28:50 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Cov=Stdev/ average for anything
in my case...it is the simulated estimates...each day roughly 20 to 50 simulation estimates for high / low and close

all Stdev and averages (20 to 50 for each day) are used to estimate each day's COV of the high and low


Livingston nh  17:22:40 GMT - 06/15/2018  
OIL - how about its goin to 56 - and then we figure out why!!!


lkwd jj  17:21:18 GMT - 06/15/2018  
so i use vertical line on the date to see where the levels are at. high/low. whats the middle one ?


Mtl JP  17:19:00 GMT - 06/15/2018  
jj ref KaL 16:00
-----------------
basicaly COV (coefficient of variation) is Excel formula for standard deviation and mean in a column of data.

... the flaw (weak spot) is that it analyzes past gambling results for - again - ref KaL 16:00 . within reason: it is a noble effort useful in day-to-day activities such as scheduling production or staffing. BUT NOT gambling result in Vegas for predicting the next winning combo. IF only...


SaaR KaL  17:09:39 GMT - 06/15/2018  
JJ Date related ranges
ie Oil
63 you start thinking of taking pos for 72
or next date upper level
like 68 on on 20th
estimates error is about 3-4 bucks
so enter below 63 to 60
on 20th exit 68 to 72...so on


lkwd jj  17:01:15 GMT - 06/15/2018  
i dont know how to read that


SaaR KaL  16:48:09 GMT - 06/15/2018  
 
This is what I call a trend
COV 0.035
60 is min


SaaR KaL  16:43:41 GMT - 06/15/2018  
a visual is nice ha?


SaaR KaL  16:42:19 GMT - 06/15/2018  
 
USDJPY if you want 112
must wait for 109

COV near 0.01



SaaR KaL  16:39:08 GMT - 06/15/2018  
 
Cable
with COV of about 0.014


SaaR KaL  16:35:28 GMT - 06/15/2018  
 
USDCAD Chart
Max / Min and average Close (Yellow)
COV about 0.008




Livingston nh  16:06:47 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Fair enough -- but I
disagree


SaaR KaL  16:06:22 GMT - 06/15/2018  
JP
MBA program is worthless
Branded Education that offers nothing


SaaR KaL  16:00:45 GMT - 06/15/2018  
nh
I try to estimate where mkt Can not do..(Within reason)
If they do it...the other way is very likely

USDJPY
Date Max of High Min of Low
6/15/2018 111.0887 108.9047
6/16/2018 111.0203 109.1274
6/17/2018 111.0708 109.2288
6/18/2018 110.9510 109.3440


Livingston nh  15:58:06 GMT - 06/15/2018  
I'm not
smart enough to figure out why smart guys ignore rates


Mtl JP  15:56:54 GMT - 06/15/2018  
few that MBA ..
before I saw finance tot married by accident


SaaR KaL  15:56:28 GMT - 06/15/2018  
For those interested
16th monday...etc
They are sells
the problem from where?

Cable
Date Max of High Min of Low
6/15/2018 1.3467 1.3227
6/16/2018 1.3472 1.3232
6/17/2018 1.3437 1.3153


eurusd
Date Max of High Min of Low
6/15/2018 1.1864 1.1568
6/16/2018 1.1874 1.1576
6/17/2018 1.1821 1.1524
6/18/2018 1.1784 1.1433


SaaR KaL  15:50:15 GMT - 06/15/2018  
IE BS (Oregon St University)
+MBA Finance (U of O)


SaaR KaL  15:48:03 GMT - 06/15/2018  
nh...lets say goes south fast
that low estimate has 0.0024 COV
Min=1.2953/(1+2*0.0024)



Mtl JP  15:47:22 GMT - 06/15/2018  
time will tell
I am curious so will keep an eye
and making notes on chart
-
ur BS eng in what ?


SaaR KaL  15:42:01 GMT - 06/15/2018  
These are estimate of each array
These estimates do have a stdev..I use Coefficient of variation COV (Same thing but Multiple..Not additive )
16th is Monday
1.3152 is our high est w/ 0.00300 COV

1.3152*(1+2*.00300)
I use 2 sigma for 98.5% of max

Good enough?

Date Max of High Min of Low Average of Close
6/15/2018 1.3152 1.2953 1.3051
6/16/2018 1.3150 1.2950 1.3070
6/17/2018 1.3108 1.2927 1.3053


Livingston nh  15:29:50 GMT - 06/15/2018  
kal - but why? based on what?


SaaR KaL  15:27:59 GMT - 06/15/2018  
nh I am shorting it
just giving the highest possible
1,3229
short more there


Livingston nh  15:26:04 GMT - 06/15/2018  
kal - CAD?


SaaR KaL  15:21:17 GMT - 06/15/2018  
nh
gold or Oil?
Oil will short above 66.5
67 is possible


Livingston nh  15:18:43 GMT - 06/15/2018  
WHY? - based on what?


SaaR KaL  15:15:51 GMT - 06/15/2018  
USDCAD Shorts
tops 1.3229


SaaR KaL  15:01:15 GMT - 06/15/2018  
JP..LOL...I know
but options do not


closed Oil shorts
reshort later


Mtl JP  14:57:57 GMT - 06/15/2018  
kal but account margin does not care about time


SaaR KaL  14:54:38 GMT - 06/15/2018  
USDCAD coming drop is a 2 week one
1.280 in 2 weeks


SaaR KaL  14:28:05 GMT - 06/15/2018  
AUDJPY Longs
84.5553 82.8608
CADJPY Longs
85.1728 83.3575


SaaR KaL  14:20:54 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Shorts
GBPNZD
1.9111 1.8742

GBPAUD
1.7773 1.7316


Mtl JP  14:20:48 GMT - 06/15/2018  
KaL 13:46 currently that is cajones trade (while above 1.3120)
what sl pray tell


SaaR KaL  14:11:26 GMT - 06/15/2018  
could long Gold here for 1303 tgt


SaaR KaL  13:46:22 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Oil still short tgt 62.5 area
looking forwards to long it near 62 area
to tgt 72 to 74

shorting USDCAD to 1.2970


SaaR KaL  13:44:05 GMT - 06/15/2018  
nh
I am technical only
I do not believe any politician anywhere


Livingston nh  13:36:18 GMT - 06/15/2018  
Swissy no longer safe - they caved a few years back - no hiding there plus there is no premium to US Treasuries


SaaR KaL  13:34:27 GMT - 06/15/2018  
0.9974 0.9763
is ok


lkwd jj  13:29:04 GMT - 06/15/2018  
leaning to think with politics in play merkel , trade wars, that safe haven flows will start.... usdchf hod in ? would sell closer to 80 with 89 stop. what do you think ?


SaaR KaL  13:24:05 GMT - 06/15/2018  
IMO Cable now into at least 1.335 will short near 1.3450 tgt 1.3000

EURUSD to above 1.1720 possible 1.1850






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