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GVI Trader john  17:37:06 GMT - 06/22/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 1052 vs. 1059 (-7) prev.
Oil: 862 vs. 863 (-1) prev.

Canada: 160 vs. 139 (+21)

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Mtl JP  16:56:58 GMT - 06/22/2018  
WTI now at 68.38
some guatemalan mother of a kid named Darwin (not a joke) sued Trump administration and ... won re-unification !

Maybe Trump himself will one day be glad the two Koreas remain separated so that he will be to seek and receive sanctuary in Kim's kingdom

GVI 16:09:33 GMT - 06/22/2018  
New York Fed Nowcast: cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% prior; cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 2.6% from 2.8% prior

- Source

PAR 15:58:26 GMT - 06/22/2018  
Trump is a barking dog . So happy to meet the Queen of England .

dc CB  15:27:36 GMT - 06/22/2018  
A 25% tariff would add around €10,000 to the sticker price of a European built car: BBG

Mtl JP  15:17:22 GMT - 06/22/2018  
President Trump - FYI
Vehicles made in Canada 2017

Vehicles made in Canada 2017

dc CB  14:52:27 GMT - 06/22/2018  
Canada dosen't have any car companies.
Mercedes, BMW, and Volvo all have plants in the US.

Mtl JP  14:41:12 GMT - 06/22/2018  
President Trump : that is discriminatory !!!!

What about tariff-icating autos made-in-canada ?! chrystia has been working really hard for the last two days on a "detailed response" to such ... is her good diligence not worthy of being rewarded and is it to be left for naught ??

GVI Trader Jay Meisler  14:29:49 GMT - 06/22/2018  
Risk off, eurusd lower after this latest tewwet

10:25 (US) Trump tweets: "Based on the Tariffs and Trade Barriers long placed on the U.S. and it great companies and workers by the European Union, if these Tariffs and Barriers are not soon broken down and removed, we will be placing a 20% Tariff on all of their cars coming into the U.S. Build them here!"

** NOTE: 6/20 (US) Commerce Sec Ross: to hold hearings on Section 232 probe on auto tariffs on July 19-20th

- Source

GVI Trader john  13:45:22 GMT - 06/22/2018  
U.S. flash Markit Mfg & SVC PMI June 2018

mfg: 54.6 vs. 56.2 exp. vs. 56.4 prev.
svc: 56.5 vs. 56.8 exp. vs. 56.8 prev.

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Markit PMI Press Release

GVI Trader john  13:19:42 GMT - 06/22/2018  
Belgium Confidence implies a stronger German IFO on Monday.

GVI 13:18:12 GMT - 06/22/2018  
(BE) Belgium Jun Business Confidence: 0.6 v 0.0e - Source

Mtl JP  12:53:58 GMT - 06/22/2018  
the beyond reach of anti-collusion laws,
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in principle Friday to a deal that would lift output by a nominal 1 million barrels a day, though the effective increase would be smaller, reports said. According to The Wall Street Journal

GVI Trader john  12:32:30 GMT - 06/22/2018  
Canada: CPI (May) Retail Sales (April) 2018

Headline CPI
mm: +0.10% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
yy: +2.20% vs. +2.50% exp. vs. +2.20% prev.

Retail Sales
Headline: -1.20% vs. +0.00% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.
X-Autos: -0.10% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.

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Livingston nh  11:07:39 GMT - 06/22/2018  
Good news on a Friday - WOW!

"Greece will leave its financial rescue on August 20 and finance ministers from the 19 countries that use the single currency were under pressure to offer Athens a goodbye deal that left it strong in the eyes of the financial markets.
"The Greek crisis ends here tonight," said EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, after marathon talks in Luxembourg." Dly Telgrph

PAR 10:43:58 GMT - 06/22/2018  
If they keep supporting Merkel then SPD party is toast .

Just like the French socialists SPD will be destroyed .

GVI 10:04:22 GMT - 06/22/2018  
German SPD party official Klingbeil said to have held preparation meeting on new Federal election - financial press

- Source

PAR 08:12:53 GMT - 06/22/2018  
#Euro jumps following recovery in #Eurozone PMI. Eurozone Composite PMI unexpectedly rises to 54.8 in June vs 53.9 expected. But worrying divergence between manufacturing PMI (hit 18mth low) and services PMI (hit 4mth high).

GVI Trader john  08:04:32 GMT - 06/22/2018  
EZ Flash PMIs June 2018

mfg: 55.0 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 55.5 prev.
svc: 55.0 vs. 53.8 exp. vs. 53.8 prev.

mfg: 55.9 vs. 56.2 exp. vs. 56.9 prev.
svc: 53.9 vs. 52.2 exp. vs. 52.1 prev.

mfg: 53.1 vs. 54.0 exp. vs. 52.1 prev.
svc: 56.4 vs. 54.3 exp. vs. 54.3 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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Mtl JP  20:27:26 GMT - 06/21/2018  
yak sofar a money-making dud

GVI 20:25:14 GMT - 06/21/2018  

Mansion House Address

Mtl JP  20:24:03 GMT - 06/21/2018  
oh mark... what has become of you ...

p. #3 // The major UK banks now have the balance sheets to withstand a disorderly cliff-edge Brexit, however unlikely that may be.

wishful thinking or resignation to it ?

The major UK banks now have the balance sheets to withstand a disorderly cliff-edge Brexit, however unlikely that may be.

GVI 20:16:44 GMT - 06/21/2018  
BOE Gov Carney’s annual Mansion House speech: preparing for new global financial system - Source

GVI Trader john  14:34:39 GMT - 06/21/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts

(BCF) +91 vs: +90 expected

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GVI Trader john  14:01:02 GMT - 06/21/2018  
U.S. Leading Indicators May 2018
U.S. Data Charts

-0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% (r n/a) prev.

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GVI Trader john  12:32:10 GMT - 06/21/2018  
Phiily Fed big miss

GVI Trader john  12:31:11 GMT - 06/21/2018  
US Weekly Jobless Claims


218K vs. 220K exp vs. 218K (r. 221K) prev.

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U.S. Philly Fed Index June 2018


+19.9 vs. +28.2 exp. vs. +34.4 prev.

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Mtl JP  11:33:59 GMT - 06/21/2018  
john 11:02 -- ... one more dissenter...
what a charade... at least players do not seem to be swallowing the codswallop wholesale

GVI Trader john  11:02:15 GMT - 06/21/2018  
one more dissenter. GBP up.

GVI Trader john  11:01:28 GMT - 06/21/2018  
June 21, 2018 Bank of England Policy Decision


Policy: Repo rate unchanged 0.50%
Vote: 6-3
Bank of England

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GVI Trader john  14:40:22 GMT - 06/20/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -5.900 vs. -2.700 exp vs. -4.100 prev.
Distillates: +2.700 vs. -0.400 exp vs. -2.100 prev.
Gasoline: +3.300 v. -0.500 exp vs. -2.300 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI Trader john  14:00:47 GMT - 06/20/2018  
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) May 2018


p.a. s.a.: 5.430 vs. 5.540 exp. vs 5.546 (r. ) prev.

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Mtl JP  13:48:48 GMT - 06/20/2018  
more of Powell says

U.S. economy not on verge of repeating the inflation of the 1970s

GVI Trader Jay Meisler  13:31:36 GMT - 06/20/2018  
09:30 (US) Fed Chair Powell: gradual rate hike case is broadly supported on FOMC ; inflation has moved up close to Fed's 2% target - Some asset prices are high but does not see excessive leverage
- US fiscal policy will add to demand over next few years
- US economy performing very well

- Source

GVI Trader 13:30:48 GMT - 06/20/2018  
09:26 (CN) China govt plans strong countermeasures against US tariffs - Chinese press

** NOTE: 06/19 (CN) China prepares retaliatory tariffs against US energy; US oil, gas and coal face 25% levy in threatened second wave of duties - press
- 06/18 (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): US threats on $200B tariffs list disobeys negotiation and consensus reached previously between the two countries: to take qualitative and quantitative measures if US publishes additional tariffs list

- Source

Mtl JP  12:33:51 GMT - 06/20/2018  
c/a does not appear to be an issue to players
muted reaction

GVI Trader john  12:31:31 GMT - 06/20/2018  
U.S. Current Account 1Q18 (USD bln)

-124.1 vs. -129.0 exp. vs. -128.0 (r -116.1) prev.

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GVI Trader john  20:37:57 GMT - 06/19/2018  
API Crude -3.0mln

GVI 20:02:15 GMT - 06/19/2018  
France and Germany joint statement: banks should cut gross non performing loans by 5%; reject proposal for sovereign-backed securities (SBBS) ** NOTE: In May, the European Commission proposed a new class of Sovereign Bond-Backed Securities (SBBS) meant to encourage investors and banks to diversify holdings of euro zone bonds. The SBBS would be comprised of bonds from all 19 euro zone countries, with the aim of reducing risks to the banking sector that was exposed during the euro zone debt crisis when banks' problems were exacerbated by their high exposure to their own sovereigns.

- Source

GVI 15:10:47 GMT - 06/19/2018  
Atlanta Fed cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 4.7% from 4.8% prior - The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.7 percent on June 19, down from 4.8 percent on June 14. - Source

GVI Trader john  12:31:27 GMT - 06/19/2018  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) May 2018

Starts: 1.350 vs. 1.350 exp. vs. 1.290 (r 1.286) prev.
Permits: 1.301 vs. 1.315 exp. vs. 1.350 (r )prev.

New Residential Construction

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Mtl JP  11:48:57 GMT - 06/19/2018  
haha "positive pricing dynamics" = lower purchasing power of one's savings.

amuzing how the peddlers of fiat are artistically creative wordsmiths.

GVI Trader john  11:47:12 GMT - 06/19/2018  
Good point about forex. By definition leveraged trading is buying and selling at the margin. That means the focus is on marginal CHANGES. I have observed that this is the nature of the market and even those who have tried to trade without leverage soon discover this. Many very big players e.g. Bill Gates and Warren Buffet, have learned the hard way that a buy (or sell) and hold strategy can have disastrous consequences.

Forex trading requires ongoing vigilance.

Mtl JP  11:32:07 GMT - 06/19/2018  
UK JY 11:00 - good sound not so much on paper as in theory.
Not nuff discussion about hedging here.

One does not need to be "better capitalized" . One needs to be better manager of risk regardless of size of wallet be it 1000 or 10,000 or a 100 million --- all can blow up equally easily.

UK JY  11:10:02 GMT - 06/19/2018  
I was not talking about me personally but making a blanket statement is not a trading strategy. Forex is rarely a buy and hold due to leverage.

Bali Sja  11:05:16 GMT - 06/19/2018  
Then our league is different. Sorry about your loss. Get better capitalised and money management next time.

UK JY  11:00:31 GMT - 06/19/2018  
Bali. That sounds good on paper but tell that to shorts who got stopped out overnight. In the real trading world it is a matter of getting into a level you time right and can defend so you can protect your capital.

Bali Sja  10:45:37 GMT - 06/19/2018  
Great, keep selling euro buying usd. ECB will never ever raise rates. Euro to parity and below by year end

GVI 09:35:07 GMT - 06/19/2018  

ECB President Draghi: ECB to be patient in determining the timing of the 1st potential rate hike; to take a gradual approach after the 1st rate hike - comments from Sintra, Portugal - Reiterates Council view that inflation is gradually returning toward target and that significant monetary accommodation is still needed - Economy developing underlying strength; growing evidence that broad-based growth is beginning to generate positive pricing dynamics - Downside risks to growth include increased protectionism threats and persistent heightened market volatility - Upside risks to growth include US fiscal stimulus -


GVI 09:10:20 GMT - 06/19/2018  
Liikanen: Could hold rates steady even longer than summer 2019 if necessary - Source

Mtl JP  00:55:41 GMT - 06/19/2018  
US imported approx $500 billion worth of chinese teddy bears in 2017
China imports approx $170 billion from the US

Xi will thus not be able to match Donald. Xi ll have to find another way to play the tit-for-tat game.

Mtl JP  00:24:46 GMT - 06/19/2018  
200 and potentially another 200 billion (= 400) worth:


Office of the Press Secretary


June 18, 2018

Statement from the President Regarding Trade with China

On Friday, I announced plans for tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports from China. These tariffs are being imposed to encourage China to change the unfair practices identified in the Section 301 action with respect to technology and innovation. They also serve as an initial step toward bringing balance to our trade relationship with China.

However and unfortunately, China has determined that it will raise tariffs on $50 billion worth of United States exports. China apparently has no intention of changing its unfair practices related to the acquisition of American intellectual property and technology. Rather than altering those practices, it is now threatening United States companies, workers, and farmers who have done nothing wrong.

This latest action by China clearly indicates its determination to keep the United States at a permanent and unfair disadvantage, which is reflected in our massive $376 billion trade imbalance in goods. This is unacceptable. Further action must be taken to encourage China to change its unfair practices, open its market to United States goods, and accept a more balanced trade relationship with the United States.

Therefore, today, I directed the United States Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent. After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced. If China increases its tariffs yet again, we will meet that action by pursuing additional tariffs on another $200 billion of goods. The trade relationship between the United States and China must be much more equitable.

I have an excellent relationship with President Xi, and we will continue working together on many issues. But the United States will no longer be taken advantage of on trade by China and other countries in the world.

We will continue using all available tools to create a better and fairer trading system for all Americans.

GVI Trader 00:07:05 GMT - 06/19/2018  
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Monday to impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods, escalating a tit-for-tat trade war with Beijing...

PAR 17:20:14 GMT - 06/18/2018  
VIX hitting sessions low.

GVI Trader john  17:14:12 GMT - 06/18/2018  
So here is a "dove" supporting higher interest rates.

GVI 17:13:04 GMT - 06/18/2018  
Fed's Bostic (voter, dove): I don't think we are quite at neutral interest rate; not certain how many more hikes it will take to get there - Sees output growing moderately above trend this and next year - Business confidence is fading on tariff worries - Inflation and wages don't seem to be headed for unsustainable pace of increase; inflation will likely stay around 2% target - Recent strength tied more to temporary factors; does not see major shift in momentum - Source

GVI Trader john  14:00:35 GMT - 06/18/2018  
U.S. NAHB Index June 2018

68 vs. 70.0 exp. vs. 70.0 (r) prev.


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Livingston nh  12:52:42 GMT - 06/18/2018  
The good and the great have always misunderstood the motivations of the Great Unwashed - change is disruptive

GVI 12:38:07 GMT - 06/18/2018  
Germany Chancellor Merkel: We agree CSU and CDU have common goal of better organising immigration into this country and significantly reducing number of people entering Germany
- Supports 62 of 63 points of Seehofer's plan- We believe that unjustified turning away of people at our borders could lead to undesired domino effects
- I have been assured support for seeking bilateral agreements ahead of the end-June EU summit
- Got strong negotiating mandate from CDU and CSU today
- Has been a serious debate, but we want to act together with the CSU

- Source

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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