JP - the REAL longshot is Erdogan screws w/ US at Incirlik - that's the lottery ticket winner if he does that
Livingston nh 18:01:11 GMT - 06/22/2018
JP - Does the autocrat Erdogan win outright? Probably not on the first ballot so USD/TRY stays under 5 unless his Party loses control -- if the Party loses then IMO he starts to "take measures" and the lira weakens gradually (maybe CHF/TRY to be a good chance) thru the next election
IF he wins on first ballot and Party wins then IMO the USD/TRY pops thru 5 Monday - and continues higher until capital controls come in // what is the Reserve position? how long to move new CB members in?
I don't think this guy goes quietly - investment is at risk, inflation has been jumping as lira weakened and he is breaking ties w/ the West -- barring a military takeover (the usual cure) he will solidify his position
The EU response to his initial moves is key to his continued refugee cooperation - NATO is at risk if our President decides to support him
You pays your money - you takes your chance
Mtl JP 17:21:36 GMT - 06/22/2018
nh re turk lira
Turkey holds presidential elections this sunday
opening a bet on how the puppy will open on Monday
Mtl JP 13:29:22 GMT - 06/22/2018
one equalizing feature of trading FX is that rarily does it trade in a straight line (I define straight line as a minimum 1000pip drive with no more than 50pip counterpops - about as rare as pink spotted leapard)
and so ... now that eurdlr (1.1660) has held and bounced off 1,15 looks like odds are this pink leopard will go see what is hiding around approx 1.1850 as "parity next" screamers' vocals cords get ripped out and silenced.
Mtl JP 13:16:14 GMT - 06/22/2018
munchkin still "getting away with murder"
US 10-YR (US10Y:U.S.) Yield - 9:13:59 AM EDT
2.924 % +0.027
Mtl JP 12:47:38 GMT - 06/22/2018
nh u still yanking the turklira and / or mexican puppies ?
change your mind about poloz as the nemesis ?
Mtl JP 12:31:29 GMT - 06/22/2018
london red 12:21:13 GMT - 06/22/2018
200hma supporting euro on closing basis so far. until close below, not going dwn. dont forget huge buying of 115 puts yest, most running off today at the cut, another reason mkt reluctant to move lower.11640-75 a bit of no mans land, once either side thats where we go.
Mtl JP 12:19:16 GMT - 06/22/2018
puppy should see support around 1.3250/25 in ruff round numbers IF it dips on reaction to 8:30 data and an effort to price in a poloz rate hike in july
Mtl JP 12:14:00 GMT - 06/22/2018
IF u look at the hrly DLRX it is patently obvious that atm USD ...
tud-aaammm .... is offered
darn... oil is uP = usd is down -> usdcad DOwn some
GVI Trader john 09:25:09 GMT - 06/22/2018
AT Trading Tip: Canadian CPI and Retail Sales. Friday @ 12:30 GMT. As with U.K. data, Reactions to Canadian news can be very strong. Canadian CPI is running a bit above target, but headline Retail Sales (m/m) are expected to be on the soft side. So be wary of a possible split verdict.
Heading into Canadian data in about three hours, USDCAD has slipped. Markets setting up for mixed data.
GVI Trader john 16:40:23 GMT - 06/21/2018
AT Trading Tip: Canadian CPI and Retail Sales. Friday @ 12:30 GMT. As with U.K. data, Reactions to Canadian news can be very strong. Canadian CPI is running a bit above target, but headline Retail Sales (m/m) are expected to be on the soft side. So look be wary of a possible split verdict. USDCAD has been strong recently, so the market bias has could lean for a weaker CAD. This could be upset by better than expected data.
AT Trading Tip: BOE Decision Thursday @ 11:00 GMT. Reactions to UK news are often very strong. No rate change is expected (Repo Rate currently: 0.50%). The MPC vote could be taken as a signal about the August decision. The last vote was 7-2 for no change. Markets could read a higher vote for a change as GBP positive. BOE Governor Carney speaks at 20:15 GMT later Thursday.
GBPUSD lower at this hour, however EURUSD weaker as well. EURGBP weaker, so no obvious market pre-decision bias at this hour.
AT Trading Tip: BOE Decision Thursday @ 11:00 GMT. Reactions to UK news are often very strong. No rate change is expected (Repo Rate currently: 0.50%). The MPC vote could be taken a signal about the August decision. The last vote was 7-2 for no change. Markets could read a higher vote for a change as GBP positive. GovernorCarney speaks at 20:15 GMT later Thursday.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.