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Livingston nh  18:06:35 GMT - 06/22/2018  
JP - the REAL longshot is Erdogan screws w/ US at Incirlik - that's the lottery ticket winner if he does that


Livingston nh  18:01:11 GMT - 06/22/2018  
JP - Does the autocrat Erdogan win outright? Probably not on the first ballot so USD/TRY stays under 5 unless his Party loses control -- if the Party loses then IMO he starts to "take measures" and the lira weakens gradually (maybe CHF/TRY to be a good chance) thru the next election

IF he wins on first ballot and Party wins then IMO the USD/TRY pops thru 5 Monday - and continues higher until capital controls come in // what is the Reserve position? how long to move new CB members in?

I don't think this guy goes quietly - investment is at risk, inflation has been jumping as lira weakened and he is breaking ties w/ the West -- barring a military takeover (the usual cure) he will solidify his position

The EU response to his initial moves is key to his continued refugee cooperation - NATO is at risk if our President decides to support him

You pays your money - you takes your chance


Mtl JP  17:21:36 GMT - 06/22/2018  
nh re turk lira
Turkey holds presidential elections this sunday
opening a bet on how the puppy will open on Monday


Mtl JP  13:29:22 GMT - 06/22/2018  
one equalizing feature of trading FX is that rarily does it trade in a straight line (I define straight line as a minimum 1000pip drive with no more than 50pip counterpops - about as rare as pink spotted leapard)

and so ... now that eurdlr (1.1660) has held and bounced off 1,15 looks like odds are this pink leopard will go see what is hiding around approx 1.1850 as "parity next" screamers' vocals cords get ripped out and silenced.



Mtl JP  13:16:14 GMT - 06/22/2018  
munchkin still "getting away with murder"
US 10-YR (US10Y:U.S.) Yield - 9:13:59 AM EDT
2.924 % +0.027


Mtl JP  12:47:38 GMT - 06/22/2018  
nh u still yanking the turklira and / or mexican puppies ?
change your mind about poloz as the nemesis ?


Mtl JP  12:31:29 GMT - 06/22/2018  
KUDOS Kal


london red  12:21:13 GMT - 06/22/2018  
200hma supporting euro on closing basis so far. until close below, not going dwn. dont forget huge buying of 115 puts yest, most running off today at the cut, another reason mkt reluctant to move lower.11640-75 a bit of no mans land, once either side thats where we go.


Mtl JP  12:19:16 GMT - 06/22/2018  
USDCAD 1.3270ish
puppy should see support around 1.3250/25 in ruff round numbers IF it dips on reaction to 8:30 data and an effort to price in a poloz rate hike in july


Mtl JP  12:14:00 GMT - 06/22/2018  
IF u look at the hrly DLRX it is patently obvious that atm USD ...
tud-aaammm .... is offered


Mtl JP  11:19:57 GMT - 06/22/2018  
gl

What time is the OPEC meeting?



SaaR KaL  11:16:24 GMT - 06/22/2018  
JP I am now long USDCAD for 1.3350


Mtl JP  11:12:46 GMT - 06/22/2018  
darn... oil is uP = usd is down -> usdcad DOwn some


GVI Trader john  09:25:09 GMT - 06/22/2018  
AT Trading Tip: Canadian CPI and Retail Sales. Friday @ 12:30 GMT. As with U.K. data, Reactions to Canadian news can be very strong. Canadian CPI is running a bit above target, but headline Retail Sales (m/m) are expected to be on the soft side. So be wary of a possible split verdict.

Heading into Canadian data in about three hours, USDCAD has slipped. Markets setting up for mixed data.


GVI Trader john  16:40:23 GMT - 06/21/2018  
AT Trading Tip: Canadian CPI and Retail Sales. Friday @ 12:30 GMT. As with U.K. data, Reactions to Canadian news can be very strong. Canadian CPI is running a bit above target, but headline Retail Sales (m/m) are expected to be on the soft side. So look be wary of a possible split verdict. USDCAD has been strong recently, so the market bias has could lean for a weaker CAD. This could be upset by better than expected data.

See the Amazing Trader Live!



GVI Trader Jay Meisler  10:09:09 GMT - 06/21/2018  
 
I posted this yesterday and for those who missed it, you can see how it pays not to fight the tape until you get a sign to do so

Don't fight the tape. What this means is when charts tell you one thing do not try to outguess the market until there is a reason to do so.

See the chart (above) for an example

The Amazing Trader



GVI Trader john  09:05:56 GMT - 06/21/2018  
AT Trading Tip: BOE Decision Thursday @ 11:00 GMT. Reactions to UK news are often very strong. No rate change is expected (Repo Rate currently: 0.50%). The MPC vote could be taken as a signal about the August decision. The last vote was 7-2 for no change. Markets could read a higher vote for a change as GBP positive. BOE Governor Carney speaks at 20:15 GMT later Thursday.

GBPUSD lower at this hour, however EURUSD weaker as well. EURGBP weaker, so no obvious market pre-decision bias at this hour.

See the Amazing Trader Live!



GVI Trader john Bland  20:17:45 GMT - 06/20/2018  
AT Trading Tip: BOE Decision Thursday @ 11:00 GMT. Reactions to UK news are often very strong. No rate change is expected (Repo Rate currently: 0.50%). The MPC vote could be taken a signal about the August decision. The last vote was 7-2 for no change. Markets could read a higher vote for a change as GBP positive. GovernorCarney speaks at 20:15 GMT later Thursday.

See the Amazing Trader Live!



GVI Trader Jay Meisler  16:19:51 GMT - 06/20/2018  
 
Don't fight the tape. What this means is when charts tell you one thing do not try to outguess the market until there is a reason to do so.

See this chart for an example

The Amazing Trader






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