Data as expected. U.K. Claimant Count higher (lower=better). The unemployment rate steady at 4.20%. Headline Average Weekly Earnings +2.50%.
GVI Trader john 08:43:55 GMT - 07/17/2018
GBP higher despite as expected data
Mtl JP 08:55:49 GMT - 07/17/2018
down to only 1.41 million brittons without a job
GVI11:32:19 GMT - 07/17/2018
Labour Party (opposition) reportedly will back the Tory rebel's customs union amendment - financial press - Source TradeTheNews.com
singapore td 11:39:05 GMT - 07/17/2018
done with cable today, all yours JP ;)
they may take it back near the high later, who knows
GVI Trader14:51:23 GMT - 07/17/2018
10:49 (UK) MPs vote against an amendment to the Trade Bill calling for all free trade deals after Brexit to be subject to Parliamentary scrutiny and approval - Sky news
- Vote was 314 to 284
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI16:58:43 GMT - 07/17/2018
PM May was warned by Conservative Brexiteers that she could be subject to a confidence vote if the 'remain' faction wins in customs bill dispute - UK press **NOTE: Two Brexiteer amendments passed yesterday by a slim margin with the support of PM May
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI17:30:39 GMT - 07/17/2018
Government said to have lost vote on trade bill amendment related to medicine regulation - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trader17:50:28 GMT - 07/17/2018
There is apparently a headline about the govt winning a vote (no details) = GBP spikes higher
Mtl JP 17:53:13 GMT - 07/17/2018
Kids... get your Depends:
White House: President Trump to deliver remarks about Helsinki summit at 18:00 GMT
GVI Trader17:53:39 GMT - 07/17/2018
13:44 (UK) PM May wins vote on Trade Bill amendment, defeating rebellion by pro-EU conservatives; vote 307 to 301
- The amendment had sought to keep the UK in the Customs Union in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 19:56:43 GMT - 07/17/2018
"Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right. Here I am. Stuck in the middle with... "...
‘I SAID WOULD INSTEAD OF WOULDN’T’
Trump said, after reviewing a transcript of his joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he misspoke when he said, on Monday, that he didn’t see any reasons why Russia would interfere.
“I don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t be Russia,” Trump told reporters Tuesday. “Just to repeat it, I said ‘would’ instead of ‘wouldn’t.’”
and with that he is joining that mustachioed turkey who was lost in fog of war and Clinton who "I remember landing under sniper fire."
barrier defence at 130. wkly close below 13060 tgts lvls of 126.
jkt abel 08:46:59 GMT - 07/18/2018
red, we have extension of previous line which is now a support in that 1.26xxx zone too, looks like feasible enough!
london red 08:48:17 GMT - 07/18/2018
thats the one
jkt abel 08:49:22 GMT - 07/18/2018
looks like very painful game for some though as retails showing 74% staled long cable even before this plunge!
GVI Trader john 08:58:07 GMT - 07/18/2018
Odds for an August 2 BOE rate hike ease to 68% from 77% following surprisingly soft CPI. So market odds still favor a hike.
london red 09:02:07 GMT - 07/18/2018
the window to hike appears to close after the august meet given that crude is going to drag down inflation and the october eu meet id do or die for brexit talks for the eu. even on a surprise august hike (surprise since not fully priced in), you would expect cable to rally initially but end up down on the day since it will be a one and done hike. you need to believe eu talks will end positively to think otherwise, but that would require the eu to compromise on its beliefs - as we have seen its willing to cause its member states much harm in defending those beliefs.
jkt abel 09:04:07 GMT - 07/18/2018
this is the key IMHO, cant disagree
"but that would require the eu to compromise on its beliefs"
GVI Trader john 09:07:06 GMT - 07/18/2018
EZ final June 2018 headline HICP (CPI) unrevised. Core HICP falls to 0.9% from flash 1.0%.
UK JY 09:42:17 GMT - 07/18/2018
Risk in cable is a political headline and whether May can hold on as PM.
Mtl JP 09:45:16 GMT - 07/18/2018
red what would be an example of "talks ending positively"
jkt abel 09:47:20 GMT - 07/18/2018
Thatcher stepped down after England reached WC semifinal
May will follow the same route...
it is cyclical...
london red 10:04:33 GMT - 07/18/2018
a positive end for mkts would be a minimal disruption and so a soft brexit, with the eu continuing to have some hold on the UK. however, leaving the CU and ending immigration is not compatible with the EU's four key freedoms. The softer the EU is with the UK the bigger problems it will have down the line with other potential deserters. Hence there will be no last minute softening by the EU, something which the mkt has always counted on in the past. So this time it really will be different.
london red 10:21:22 GMT - 07/18/2018
i always point out the frog in water analogy. where the frog thrown into a pot of hot water will jump out, but if put into cold water which is then heated, it will boil to death. We are 2 years post referendum and with less than 9 months to go to exit time, we have still got no further than a divorce deal (which was supposed to be the easy part), which is dependant on the future trade deal being written pre exit. Discarding everything and looking at it afresh, how likely do you think it is that a deal gets done?
jkt abel 10:26:35 GMT - 07/18/2018
red, maybe when eur/gbp reaches parity
london red 10:54:24 GMT - 07/18/2018
abel it was rhetorical, i think once it reaches parity and beyound, then there will be a will to do a deal from the eu side.
GVI11:16:20 GMT - 07/18/2018
Weekly PM May question time in House of Commons: - Chequers agreement and White paper on Brexit remain the basis for negotiations with EU
- Source TradeTheNews.com
kl fs 11:20:08 GMT - 07/18/2018
reality is there is no way margin traders can survive going short usd for many moons like they think they could, simply because the huge rollover swaps are killing them even IF they got it right, ask those retails going short usdjpy for example
only way to get it working is if they dont use leverage, which is only possible for big fish and big fish simply do not take short usd position because they know the small ones are suffering from it
GVI Trader john 12:13:55 GMT - 07/18/2018
KL- interesting points. I might add that the "big fish" face the same rollover costs that retail traders have to deal with. Rollover costs come from interest rate differentials. That is why central bank decisions, and the outlook for future decisions are central to forex trading.
GVI Trader john 12:31:51 GMT - 07/18/2018
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) June 2018
Starts: 1.170 vs. 1.320 exp. vs. 1.350 (r 1.337) prev.
Permits: 1.270 vs. 1.330 exp. vs. 1.300 prev.
john 12:32 what do u think the "Big misses" reflect:
overly and perennially optimistic govt propaganda apparatchiks or a start of something sinister on the ground or _
GVI Trader john 13:12:19 GMT - 07/18/2018
I think housing has a major affordability problem. Builders have been overbuilding at the high end. If they can't sell them they won't build them.
GVI14:09:36 GMT - 07/18/2018
Former Foreign Min Johnson: PM May's Brexit plan does not take back control from the EU - May's plan makes it harder for the UK to pursue trade deals with other countries- There is no Parliamentary majority in support of a Customs Union with the EU- Have to try and save Brexit now because we will not get another chance
John, agree re. same rollover cost however for big fish the rollover cost is not effecting their capital as much as small fish. For example average small fish may have capital 10-20k, big fish may have millions so same rollover raising from 1 standard lot for example has different percentage in terms of their capital sizes.
GVI Trader john 15:35:20 GMT - 07/18/2018
Its a bit difficult to explain, but when I was an institutional trader I had to borrow funds for trading from our firm and they "charged" me for my trading funds and for use of the firm's capital. There was no "free" money for anyone and costs for the use of company funds and capital was closely accounted for. That is true everywhere for any well run firm. Bottom line there is no free lunch no matter how big you are.
GVI17:46:40 GMT - 07/18/2018
Unnamed UK cabinet minister says Conservatives have come to their senses and will stick together in support of the Chequers deal - press
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI18:17:26 GMT - 07/18/2018
FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ROSE MODERATELY TO MODESTLY IN 10 OF 12 DISTRICTS;
- Dallas had strong growth, St Louis slight growth
- Prices and employment rose at modest to moderate pace - Extent of pass-through from input to consumer prices remained slight to moderate
- Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies
- - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI19:59:46 GMT - 07/18/2018
EU negotiators reportedly are discussing Ariticle 50 extension - press - The UK invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on 29 March 2017, begging the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit). The UK govt has repeatedly said it will leave the EU on March 29th, 2019. - Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 20:12:15 GMT - 07/18/2018
begging .... BEGGING ??
s there some other meaning to that term than what Webster says:
: to ask for as a charity (see charity 1a) ·begging food from strangers
·begged him for some change
2 a : to ask earnestly for : entreat ·beg forgiveness
·I beg your pardon.
b : to require as necessary or appropriate ·a scene that begged to be photographed
3 : evade, sidestep ·begged the real problems
or maybe - for perspective - find out who at tradethenews penned that.
Mtl JP 20:28:13 GMT - 07/18/2018
The So What that "EU negotiators reportedly are discussing Ariticle 50 extension" was worth a Northerly whipsaw in GBP between 1.3059 - 1.3082 and potentially shows markets bias about any minute prospect of UK staying somehow / anyhow tied to the EU (i.e. denied its independence)
GVI Trader john 08:34:17 GMT - 07/19/2018
U.K. Retail Sales June 2018
-- NEWS ALERT --
mm: -0.50% v +0.20% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.4%) prev.
x-fuel & autos
mm: -0.60% v +0.20% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.40%) prev.
Big miss on retail sales. Any impact on BOE after the soft CPIs yesterday? Has to raise more doubts.
Perth WTR 08:37:20 GMT - 07/19/2018
cable 1.30 busted rather easily,wonder if August hike will be cancelled
london red 08:43:43 GMT - 07/19/2018
other than headline miss, which was poss affected by unusually strong may (royal wedding), sales not too bad. however june should have had a good boost from world cup so im not buying that argument. however combined april may june sales were quite strong historically, certainly an improvement on Q1. boe was looking for a rebound from soft q1, in those terms i dont think it will sway them from a hike given they dont have much of a window. but in any case, cable is likely to drop whether they hike or not, unless data improves significantly and or we get a positive development on brexit.
GVI Trader john 08:46:32 GMT - 07/19/2018
Perth- good question any ideas from the forum? Data over the past two days have got to raise doubts for the doves or those on the fence at the BOE.
GVI Trader john 09:02:01 GMT - 07/19/2018
red thanks for your always insightful comments. So you suggest the BOE might just plow through and hike anyway?
london red 09:06:49 GMT - 07/19/2018
it will be a close call but the more imp thing to take from it all it that its likely to be a one and done it at all, hence cable may pop but will likely finish lower on day even if they try to guide higher, because to be believeable, you will need either data or positive brexit news. recent drops in crude will not help the first, while the key date for brexit is october as of now. by the time we get there, they will then push it on, but you would also expect some negative effects into sterling at that time as well.
Mtl JP 09:13:29 GMT - 07/19/2018
so now we have 1.2983 low to trade against
IF one believes the rockstar of banking
GVI Trader john 10:02:45 GMT - 07/19/2018
EARLIER: Australia JUNE 2018 Employment data beat forecasts. Headline +50.9K with Full-time Employment up 41.2K . Unemployment rate unch at 5.40%.
GVI Trader john 10:59:05 GMT - 07/19/2018
Note China yuan weaker as well AUD weaker despite strong employment data today. AUD is the free market proxy for China. Commodity currencies are also on the back foot.
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 11:08:20 GMT - 07/19/2018
As I posted for our AT subscribers,
These are not spec flows driving the dollar higher but my guess is some allocation into dollars that started in the Far East.
Look at your AT charts for clues when these flows are going through the market.
Canada Ambassador: remain confident will end up with a trilateral agreement on NAFTA - Trumps call for bilateral talks not a surrise - Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 14:13:18 GMT - 07/19/2018
ambassador is confident. noted.
that is after reuters report from July 18:
"“We have had very good sessions with Mexico and with the new president of Mexico, who won overwhelmingly, and we’re doing very well on our trade agreement,” Trump said to reporters ahead of a meeting of his cabinet at the White House.
“So we’ll see what happens. We may do a deal separately with Mexico and we’ll negotiate with Canada at a later time. But we’re having very good discussions with Mexico.”
loves me not
usdcad slight bull bias
with current s/t res around 1.3250/60 zone
What does President Trump actually want? Lower interest rate, lower trade deflict, and now weak dollar. That will translate to lower economic growth
HK Kevin 17:19:50 GMT - 07/19/2018
Should be "economic recession"
GVI Trader Jay Meisler 17:24:02 GMT - 07/19/2018
13:03 (US) Pres Trump: Not happy about interest rates going up at the Fed; Strong dollar puts the US at a disadvantage - CNBC taped interview excerpts
- Fed rate hikes may be poorly timed and will put the US at a disadvantage while other central banks maintain loose monetary policy- "I am not happy about it. But at the same time I'm letting them do what they feel is best."
- Fed Chair Powell is a good man
- Chinese currency is dropping like a rock
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 21:01:08 GMT - 07/19/2018
dc CB 16:09 why good luck ?
market makers / dealers lurk for dissertations by politicians / central bank cretins 24/7
think they do that manually ?
one has to get out of prehistoric cave and smoke signals and leap forward and adopt lurking robots variously programmed to watch for and react to price dynamics impulses . It is 2018 afterall.
Dillon AL 22:17:02 GMT - 07/19/2018
Consider this: robotic or automatic cars etc wont be mainstream for imho at least 15 years. GPS cannot distinguish between a floor level nor a lane and is ALWAYS several seconds behind reality.
Consider this: Tesla tried to institute robots for what was considered menial human repetitive tasks however found out 2 things 1. the required programming was too difficult 2. that the human was better at it in the first place so they reverted to using humans.
Consider this: word spell does not know the grammatical difference between there and their and a multitude of other similar.
Consider this: Google translate and similar despite being programmed with the dictionary - by no means a complete version of language it then
- now get this - uses English as on intermediary step language for translations between most language pairs. Now of course there is no way of knowing whether that would be UK US OZ etc versions of what is euphemistically referred to as English. Also the translators whether intentionally or unintentionally often provide sexist translations where, among other things, doctors are men and teachers are women.
Consider this: Google or Siri cannot spell - see previous reference - have difficulty understanding accents in every sense of the word and with their predictive text frequently come up with words 1. that are meaningless to the context and 2. complete and utter different words and on top of every thing think that they know better than I in that they change some of the words that I am typing.
Consider this: we already have people that blindly follow directions on their GPS to the point of going onto trails and up dead ends. IE these people know not how to make a decision for themselves believing everything that they see to be gospel. Well we know how that ends but it starts with.....Have you ever been behind someone in a queue and listened to ..the desk clerk or whomever explain something to these people in front of you and started to get frustrated that they were not actually listening properly and not absorbing the information and requiring everything to be explained several times but then these are the same people to whom one needs to say something like my name is Alex thats aye elle eee x but then for what is a very military nation (The US) very few actually know how to spell using the phonetic language
so it would be pointless saying Alpha Lima Echo Xray.
Consider this: Algos in the financial world make money by virtue of being market makers IE they are all about volume and flow. No volume and no flow they are as dead in the water as any human however ALL Algos have a human behind them whether that be purely a risk manager or just someone who when things gets slow flashes price change. Yep it is illegal but try and catch them especially where the regulatory officers have very little if any market background but being lawyers all think that they can wade through millions of lines of code.
I'll take my chances that as a human I can still outwit a machine for the foreseeable future because I can duck and weave and think on my feet and smell when something does not seem right and make an instantaneous decision but disaster strikes. We are a very very long way away from Kit or Hal.
Dillon AL 00:22:04 GMT - 07/20/2018
but disaster strikes = before disaster strikes
Mtl JP 09:49:17 GMT - 07/20/2018
Dillon AL 22:17 consider anti-lock breaks (ABS)
sampling and reacting to conditions 100s of times per second
vs you pressing manual breaks in a curve on icy road
GVI Trader john 10:18:58 GMT - 07/20/2018
interview over nothing new.
GVI Trader john 10:26:05 GMT - 07/20/2018
The story here is not the interview. The story is HOW, WHEN and IF the Trump statements impact the Fed, other governments and the markets. My view is this is not over.
GVI10:40:34 GMT - 07/20/2018
PM May: Her duty to serve the whole of the UK; need a Brexit agreement for the whole country; EU needs to respond to the White papper - comments from Belfast
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trader john 10:45:01 GMT - 07/20/2018
May rules out any notion of a "hard border" between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland.
GVI Trader john 12:33:29 GMT - 07/20/2018
Canada: CPI (June) Retail Sales (May) 2018
0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: +2.50% vs. +2.40% exp. vs. +2.20% prev.
Headline: +2.0% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. -1.20% prev.
X-Autos: +1.40% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
Pres Trump reiterates his comments on rate policy and FX markets, says China and the EU have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates - Tweets: "China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day - taking away our big competitive edge. As usual, not a level playing field...
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Bali Sja 12:49:42 GMT - 07/20/2018
Whats Bullard gonna say later?Trump just killed Bullard's chance to be today's star
GVI Trader john 12:54:09 GMT - 07/20/2018
Bullard is a lightweight. Don't pay much attention to him.
GVI Trader john 12:55:59 GMT - 07/20/2018
We used to call this "Verbal Intervention".
Singapore SC 13:01:30 GMT - 07/20/2018
Bali is it time to give uo the buy usd on dips strategy?
GVI13:05:21 GMT - 07/20/2018
ECB says "no comment" on President Trump's remarks about currency manipulation in Europe and China - press
White House official: President Trump worries that the Fed will raise rates two more times this year - CNBC
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Mtl JP 18:31:16 GMT - 07/21/2018
This is what we get from a $467,940 and an allowance of $83,760/yr yakker be she right or wrong:
IMF warns G20 that tariffs will harm global economy as Trump threatens escalation
Measures may trim up to 0.5% of global GDP in 'worst case scenario,' Christine Lagarde says - Thomson Reuters · Posted: Jul 21, 2018
loves me not
On the sunny side of the ledger:
America has sold more weapons in six months than in all of 2017
... the U.S. has signed $46.9 billion in weapons sales ... — smashing past the $41.9 billion figure from all of fiscal 2017. ...
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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