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GVI Trader john  17:08:30 GMT - 07/27/2018  
Before the data (unrelated?). CO fell sharply. Oddly USDCAD has tumbled.

GVI Trader john  17:06:22 GMT - 07/27/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 1048 vs. 1046 (+2) prev.
Oil: 861 vs. 858 (+3) prev.

Canada: 223 vs. 211 (+22)

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Mtl JP  16:18:31 GMT - 07/27/2018  
nowcast schmowcast...
may.. may not ...

Now S&P trying to be pre-emptive :

...Investors are showing trepidation over a potential wave of rating downgrades for the lowest tier of investment-grade debt, but fears those bonds will turn into “fallen angels” might be overblown, at least for now, according to analysts at S&P Global Ratings. ...

Don’t fear a coming wave of corporate bond-rating downgrades, says S&P

GVI 15:31:30 GMT - 07/27/2018  
New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q3 GDP model to 2.83% v 2.38% prior (UPDATE)

- Today's advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2018:Q2 from the Commerce Department was 4.1%. The latest New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q2 was 2.8%.

- Source

Mtl JP  14:03:58 GMT - 07/27/2018  
President Trump continues to be enthusiastically excited about more GDP growth as he cuts more new trade deals

GVI Trader john  14:01:31 GMT - 07/27/2018  
University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final July 2018

97.9 vs. 97.1 exp. vs. 97.1 preliminary

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

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GVI Trader john  12:35:26 GMT - 07/27/2018  
U.S. GDP 2Q18

+4.10% vs. +4.10% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special

Livingston nh  03:44:41 GMT - 07/27/2018  
The pound will be the subject if Carney's "Merve the Swerve" moment takes hold

Livingston nh  02:56:38 GMT - 07/27/2018  
TRUMAN lost his nerve after Berlin -- there would have been no NORTH korea if either had decided to make a statement == 50k NK and probably 50K In Vietnam

No Senator's sons

Livingston nh  02:44:19 GMT - 07/27/2018  
EISENHOWER's worst decision

dc CB  02:23:57 GMT - 07/27/2018  
July 27, 1953
Korean War - Cease Fire

Mtl JP  23:32:06 GMT - 07/26/2018  
Often , it is not the news that you see that matters as the discreet news that appears ever so innocent:

Putin arrives in Johannesburg for BRICS summit - TASS
...On Thursday, BRICS leaders will participate in private and expanded meetings and sign documents. (private only because ... some stuff is just not your business)

On the same day, Putin is scheduled to hold talks with the summit’s host, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, as well as bilateral meetings with the leaders of Argentina, Angola, Turkey, Zambia,


and India

Livingston nh  19:43:06 GMT - 07/26/2018  
this is why the Russian sanctions are so "important" - LNG pipelines are easy - LNG imports via tanker, not so much

Do gooders end up starving in the cold caves - see Neanderthal

Commodities are fungible - demand is not as elastic as supply

Mtl JP  19:33:04 GMT - 07/26/2018  
Reuters had this to say

Trump's plan for U.S. LNG in Europe to face reality check

and bbrg' s Anna Shiryaevskaya , Elena Mazneva , and Mathew Carr wrote: Trump Says Europe to Buy Boatloads of U.S. LNG. Don’t Bet on It

GVI Trader john  19:21:17 GMT - 07/26/2018  
nh- you are the first person I have heard mentioning GMO's. I had thought they were effectively banned throughout Europe?

Who is going to buy those soybeans?

Mtl JP  19:21:12 GMT - 07/26/2018  
it is said the harsher the lesson the better it is learnt

According to Martin Armstrong,
Governments now assume ALL money is illegal gains and they will confiscate 100% forcing the burden to you to PROVE it is yours and was obtained legally. If you are ever going to send money to someone overseas, you can mail a check from your account, but NEVER get a bank check/draft. If you are in the USA and try to wire money to an individual overseas, you will quickly discover the limit is not $10,000, but $3,000.

NEVER send anything of value internationally using FedEx.

US Border Seizes $500,000 Inheritance Mailed from Canada to USA

Livingston nh  19:13:07 GMT - 07/26/2018  
The EU do gooders like Macron want no GMO and Paris Climate signatory -- and where is the US LNG going to be offloaded?

So if you think the silly spike in stox from yesterday was real you might want to hedge that at SPX 2830

GVI 19:07:01 GMT - 07/26/2018  
France Pres Macron: Doesn't currently favor a vast trade agreement with the US because context isn't right at the moment; opposes discussing agriculture as part of trade talks with US - press - Some points in the Juncker-Trump trade deal need clarification

- Source

Livingston nh  18:55:13 GMT - 07/26/2018  
Food Stamps are a lot more cost effective than Medicaid and it doesn't enrich the 20% GDP "healthcare providers"

Mtl JP  18:51:45 GMT - 07/26/2018  
socialists to left...
socialists to the right ....

Most American voters don’t want food stamps to be stamped out.

Some 61% of registered voters say they are against reducing funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps. That’s according to a survey commissioned by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for a Livable Future, in June.

Of those who were opposed, 73% said they were “strongly opposed” to any cuts in funding.

About 1,000 registered voters responded to the survey in total.

GVI Trader john  18:51:34 GMT - 07/26/2018  
We wonder what Kudlow means by "big".

He has set up the markets short EURUSD.

1) Does Kudlow know the actual number?
2) if so, what are the market and Kudlow definitions of "big"?

GVI 16:02:32 GMT - 07/26/2018  
White House Econ Adviser Kudlow: Number on US GDP growth due on Friday 'will be big'

- Source

GVI 14:35:21 GMT - 07/26/2018  
Atlanta Fed cuts Q2 GDP forecast to 3.8% from 4.5% prior

- Source

GVI Trader john  14:33:35 GMT - 07/26/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts

(BCF) +24 vs: +40 expected

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GVI Trader john  13:17:51 GMT - 07/26/2018  
Press Conference done. Surprisingly little news.

Mtl JP  13:12:53 GMT - 07/26/2018  
john plz keep an ear out for mario swapping long / short term debt
I suspect 2yr spread dynamic is going to determine which way euro takes off
tia !

GVI Trader john  13:11:46 GMT - 07/26/2018  
ECB meeting over.

Mtl JP  12:42:13 GMT - 07/26/2018  
mario smiling as data matching w/forecasts (ieeha high 5)

also "growth" should continue as buying overpriced LNG from Trump-nation likely to contribute to GDP growth (GDP = sumtotal monetary measure of the market value of all goods and services in a period of time)

GVI Trader john  12:34:07 GMT - 07/26/2018  
Nothing surprising out of Draghi yet...

Mtl JP  11:51:32 GMT - 07/26/2018  
now some players wait for the
12:30 AA EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a

GVI Trader john  11:47:20 GMT - 07/26/2018  
European Central Bank (ECB) July 26, 2018


Refi Rate Steady at 0.00%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.25%
Deposit Rate steady At -0.40%

Asset Purchases (QE) per mo unchanged at 15bn

Press Release: ECB Decision

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Mtl JP  21:19:55 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Min Altmaier,,, hehe not just juncker who stains his pants
saving millions of jobs worthy of sainthood next, Min Altmaier?
news algo power of Altmeir: -3 pips

GVI 21:14:44 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Germany Econ Min Altmaier: breakthrough achieved with the US on trade will save millions of jobs and be great for the global economy

- Source

Mtl JP  21:09:29 GMT - 07/25/2018  
another version of presser"
President Donald Trump said he and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to work toward "zero tariffs" and "zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods." At an unscheduled news conference following a joint meeting, Trump also said the EU would buy more U.S. soybeans almost immediately and that he and Juncker would work to resolve tariffs on European steel and aluminum. U.S. stocks DJIA, +0.68% jumped on reports that the U.S. and EU had reached a deal to resolve trade tensions. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on European autos but said he'll hold off on any retaliation as long as talks are taking place. - by ROBERT SCHROEDER

GVI Trader john  20:38:14 GMT - 07/25/2018  
nothing new announced. Frankly "agreement" sounded pretty vague.

GVI Trader john  20:19:48 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Press Conference underway

Mtl JP  19:52:42 GMT - 07/25/2018  
ieeha ... agrees to take more US LNG exports
at what multiple price to that from Vladimir ?
rofl President Trump is showing his deal-making mettle
OR juncker is pulling a fast one
next remains to be seen if europeans actually do buy overpriced murrikan LNG

Mtl JP  19:47:14 GMT - 07/25/2018  
SnP going vertical euphorically applauding President Trump's trade and tariff negotiating skill

USDCAD plumetting (as prescribed by gv chartpoints earlier)
1.3030 new LoD

GVI 19:39:55 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Pres Trump reportedly has received concessions from Europe to avert trade war; Europe agrees to lower industrial tariffs - press - EU agrees to import more US soybeans; agrees to take more US LNG exports- EU agrees to cooperate on regulatory medical products standards

- Source

GVI 19:30:31 GMT - 07/25/2018  
White House press corps indicating Pres Trump to hold an unscheduled 'press availability' in the Rose Garden **NOTE: earlier today Trump met with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss trade and other matters. He also met with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen for lunch. - Source

Dillon AL  19:02:25 GMT - 07/25/2018  
John quite right and The Drunk who uses the excuse of a sciatica - I ve had one of those and yes they are painful but they dont make you wobble and fall over - is a hasbeen retiring in March or thereabouts next year. So even if he could deliver then it will all be for nought
Trump says he is a deal maker. Trump says he wants a deal but when you are dealing with The President of the European Commission you are actually dealing with the wrong person

The European Commissioner for Trade is the member of the European Commission responsible for the European Union's common commercial policy. The portfolio has been held by Cecilia Malmström since November 2014

Mtl JP  18:22:50 GMT - 07/25/2018  
the disgusting juncker may deliver a yellow stain on the front of his pants - hopefully without heaving on W/H parquetry as a bonus
Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, has said he expected Juncker to come with a “significant” trade offer, but the Commission on Monday that would not happen.

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will not arrive in the United States for talks with U.S. President Donald Trump with a specific trade offer, the Commission said on Monday.

GVI Trader john  18:16:26 GMT - 07/25/2018  
It takes a lifetime for the EU to decide on anything. What can Junker deliver?

Mtl JP  18:07:20 GMT - 07/25/2018  
..."reciprocal trade at a minimum"...
what would "at a medium" or "at a maximum" be ?
US in union with EU under Brussels diktat ?
juncker cant do anything. he is as impotent to cut a deal as when he is suffering a sciatic attack: the eu decides on things by consensus of the 28 members. all juncker can do is blab platitudes.

In the meantime SnP likes what it sees/hears

GVI 17:48:36 GMT - 07/25/2018  
President Trump: EU's Juncker is 'smart' and 'very tough'; we're looking to have a good US-Europe trade deal - comments at meeting with EU Commission President Juncker and Trade Min Malmstrom - We want reciprocal trade at a minimum with our allies - We expect something 'very positive' over European trade - Source

GVI Trader john  14:53:58 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Now crude corrects and then USDCAD. You need to be nimble on your feet for this trade

GVI 14:45:07 GMT - 07/25/2018  
White House advisers think Pres Trump plans to impose 25% tariff on $200B in foreign made automobiles later this year - Wash Post - " Trump has become increasingly defiant in his trade strategy, following his own instincts and intuition and eschewing advice from his inner circle. He has told advisers and Republicans to simply trust his business acumen, a point he tried to reinforce Wednesday morning in a Twitter post."

- Source

GVI Trader john  14:41:24 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Clear AT Picture USDCAD following data

GVI Trader john  14:36:36 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Draws in Products (higher energy prices) weighing on USDCAD

GVI Trader john  14:30:54 GMT - 07/25/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -6.200 vs. -3.200 exp vs. +5.800 prev.
Distillates: -2.300 vs. +0.200 exp vs. -0.400 prev.
Gasoline: -0.100 vs. -0.800 exp vs. -3.200 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI 14:15:07 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Prime Min May: reiterates end to free movement following Brexit is non-negotiable - People should be reassured by 'responsible, sensible' planning for a no-deal Brexit - Source

Mtl JP  14:08:50 GMT - 07/25/2018  
blame powell... the killer of murrican dream

GVI Trader john  14:02:56 GMT - 07/25/2018  
Big miss. Higher mortgage rates...

GVI Trader john  14:02:10 GMT - 07/25/2018  
U.S. New Home Sales June, 2018

631K vs. 670K exp. vs. 695K (r 666K ) prev.

New Residential Sales

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GVI Trader john  08:03:34 GMT - 07/25/2018  
German IFO barely mixed

GVI Trader john  08:01:32 GMT - 07/25/2018  
German IFO Survey July 2018


Climate: 101.7 vs. 101.5 exp. vs. 101.8 prev.
Current: 105.3 vs. 104.8 exp. vs. 105.1 prev.(105.2)
Expectations: 98.2 vs. 98.3 exp. vs. 98.6 prev.(r 98.5)

IFO Climate Survey

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dc CB  21:23:46 GMT - 07/24/2018 helmets.
tradiing without stops?
No longer allowed. LOL

Mtl JP  21:20:02 GMT - 07/24/2018  
next... farmers stop feeding cops ?

dc CB  21:05:19 GMT - 07/24/2018  
dc CB 19:51 GMT
1982 --- sans teargas

Farmers’ revolt, 1982, by Harry Gruyaert.

Here, the riders are forced to take a break because of protesting farmers. Officials had stopped the race at the start of stage 16 in the French Alps, which finished on Alpe d’Huez. It wasn’t the first time stoppage happened that year: On stage 5, striking factory workers got onto the course and forced the team time trial to be abandoned.

Tour 82

GVI 20:41:25 GMT - 07/24/2018  
EU finds evidence of automakers manipulating emissions tests ahead of new climate rules - FT

- Source

GVI Trader john  20:40:25 GMT - 07/24/2018  
CO -3.2m
D -1.3m
G -4.9m

dc CB  19:51:25 GMT - 07/24/2018  
speaking of farmers.
(And they drummed Lance Armstrong out of the sport for doping)

great pix

Tour de France halted after riders sprayed with tear gas by cops trying to disperse protesting farmers on stage 16

Mtl JP  19:36:21 GMT - 07/24/2018  
personally I prefer it in the hands of farmers

dc CB  19:31:41 GMT - 07/24/2018  
well he cud have just given it directly to the Banks... as the FED continues to do, upping the Vig everytime they "raise rates" on the Excess Reserves...Give me a break ----Mr Financial Wizzard.

Mtl JP  19:13:01 GMT - 07/24/2018  
CB 18:16 so w/that he is setting precedent
for many many hundreds of billions in "support" more

think venezuela's inflation is funny ?

dc CB  18:16:53 GMT - 07/24/2018  
Facing the brunt of President Trump's trade war with China, which threatens some $34 billion of US products and agriculture with duties, the White House has announced a $12 billion "short-term" stimulus plan to help US farmers hurt by China's "illegal" retaliatory tariffs.

Mtl JP  16:45:19 GMT - 07/24/2018  
Trump Administration to Offer About $12 Billion in Farm Aid to Ease Concerns Over Trade Disputes - wsj

Mtl JP  15:56:52 GMT - 07/24/2018  
did president Trump postulate who / what would the Russian favour if not him : stronger dollar ? just as I am getting jubbed on the post

GVI 15:53:14 GMT - 07/24/2018  
Pres Trump tweets he is concerned about Russian interference in 2018 elections, "They definitely don’t want Trump!" - Trump tweets: "I’m very concerned that Russia will be fighting very hard to have an impact on the upcoming Election. Based on the fact that no President has been tougher on Russia than me, they will be pushing very hard for the Democrats. They definitely don’t want Trump!"

- Source

GVI 14:38:00 GMT - 07/24/2018  
UK PM May representative Robbins: have sounded out EU officials on Chequers proposal, but have not gotten a firm answer on whether it is acceptable or not

- Source

Mtl JP  14:30:31 GMT - 07/24/2018  
what is become patently - embarrassingly ? - obvious from player reaction is that about only thing overvalued is Lagarde

GVI Trader john  14:28:48 GMT - 07/24/2018  
Its give Trump cover for pushing the USD vs. The other major currencies if he feels he needs it Keep in mind, when the US. pushes the EURUSD lower it is also pushing the EUR higher There are two sides to every forex transaction (movement)

Mtl JP  14:17:29 GMT - 07/24/2018  
and the So-What of the alleged IMF pretext: players zzzz
eurdlr range: 1.1713-1.1708

Q: who is getting filthy rich ?

GVI Trader john  14:10:41 GMT - 07/24/2018  
IMF giving Trump a pretext for a weak USD policy.

GVI 14:09:13 GMT - 07/24/2018  
IMF sees US dollar roughly 8-16% overvalued compared to levels warranted by medium term fundamentals

- Persistent excessive current account surpluses and deficits cold put global growth at risk and aggravate trade tensions; 40-50% of global current account balances are now deemed excessive

- Yen valuation broadly in line with expectations

- Source

GVI Trader john  14:04:09 GMT - 07/24/2018  
U.S. Richmond Fed Index July 2018

+20 vs. +18 exp. vs. +20 prev.

TTN: Live News

GVI Trader john  14:02:48 GMT - 07/24/2018  
U.S. flash Markit Mfg & SVC PMI July 2018

mfg: 55.5 vs. 55.1 exp. vs. 55.4 prev.
svc: 56.2 vs. 56.6 exp. vs. 56.5 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Markit PMI Press Release

GVI 12:40:27 GMT - 07/24/2018  
UK Brexit Department Document (White Paper details): Will Be Necessary to ensure EU laws continue to apply to Britain during Post-Brexit transition period; new Brexit laws will modify parts of the act to reflect the departure of the UK - Source

Mtl JP  11:30:54 GMT - 07/24/2018  
Turkish CB stays pat at 17.75%
USDTRY reacts massively uP

GVI Trader john  08:02:46 GMT - 07/24/2018  
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash PMIs July 2018

mfg: 55.1 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.9 prev.
svc: 54.4 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 55.2 prev.

mfg: 57.3 vs. 55.5 exp. vs. 55.9 prev.
svc: 54.4 vs. 54.5 exp. vs. 54.5 prev.

mfg: 53.1 vs. 52.5 exp. vs. 52.5 prev.
svc: 55.3 vs. 55.7 exp. vs. 55.9 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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