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GVI Forex Blog  09:13:00 GMT - 08/20/2018  
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 20 Aug 2018
No Major Data
Tue 21 Aug 2018
No Major Data
Wed 22 Aug 2018
AA 12:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 23 Aug 2018
AFlash Service PMIs
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 24 Aug 2018
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

Monday Trading Checklist 20 August 2018



GVI Trader john  09:43:15 GMT - 08/20/2018  
For AT Trading
See the Amazing Trader Live!


GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:

NEGATIVE-NEUTRAL
Spot EURUSD: 1.1402
Pivot Point: 1.1415

Last Week: 1.1301-1.1442
Mon: 1.1403-1.1440
Fri: 1.1366-1.1442
Thu: 1.1301-1.1409
Wed: 1.1301-1.1355

20-day avg: 1.1562
50-day avg: 1.1624
100-day avg: 1.1816
200-day avg: 1.1972

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Sep 26: 94% (92%)

10-yr Bonds
US: 2.857% -0.4bp
DE: 0.309% +0.3bp
GB: 1.238% +0.9bp
JP: 0.095% -0.4bp

DAX: +114
Implied Open
DJ: +78
SP: +6.7




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Mtl JP  11:58:19 GMT - 08/20/2018  
one of Ergodan gumflaps over the week-end

Some people threaten us with economy, sanctions, foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and inflation. We know your shenanigans and we will defy you



Mtl JP  12:08:54 GMT - 08/20/2018  
more gumflap by erdogan

Turkey's Erdogan says attack on economy no different from attack on flag



Mtl JP  12:13:49 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Reminder :
Donald J. Trump
‏@realDonaldTrump
Follow Follow @realDonaldTrump
Turkey has taken advantage of the United States for many years. They are now holding our wonderful Christian Pastor, who I must now ask to represent our Country as a great patriot hostage. We will pay nothing for the release of an innocent man, but we are cutting back on Turkey! - 4:30 PM - 16 Aug 2018

Now

Turkey's Erdogan says attack on economy no different from attack on flag



GVI Trader john  12:36:49 GMT - 08/20/2018  
10s 2.850%
DJ +62


Mtl JP  12:46:38 GMT - 08/20/2018  
 
96.10
------
Fundamentals to left of me
fundamentals to the right ...
- Xi / Donald tariff spat
- Donald / erdogan
- brexit
- contagion jitters (Italy)
powel vs donald on 24th (re dlr strength vs interest)

Lots the fundamental funnies are known (i.e priced in)

Bottom Line
chart is that of the USDX
Qtn is: what would push the USD higher past its 96.84 high
market old saw: if it wont go uP, it will go down




Mtl JP  12:51:50 GMT - 08/20/2018  
EURO 1.1430-ish
On s/term (5 min bar) preferring selling puppy's pops against 1.1450
using Jay's hit'n run in/out trade tactic


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:55:06 GMT - 08/20/2018  
JP, AT gave you a tighter res level at 1.1434

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  13:19:45 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Jay I also like round numbers


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:30:36 GMT - 08/20/2018  
JP, you know how I feel about the 50 level..

In EURUSD, up AT episode rewards BOD. AT res at 1.1440-44

Posted earlier on the GVI/AT Forum

Monday Trading Checklist GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:38 GMT 08/20/2018 - My Profile
Stops just run at 1.14. 1.1380-00 is an AT support zone.

The Amazing Trader



Kl Fs  13:36:29 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Told you GV bias is lagging. Euro easier BOD


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:42:16 GMT - 08/20/2018  
FS, This is not a contest and depends on your time frame .You said that at 1.1438 and it fell to 1.1394 before bouncing.

Intra-day bias changes often, AT, for example, showed a shift to the upside starting at 1.1415.


Kl Fs  13:47:07 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Jay, why you are always so sensitive about AT?


Kl Fs  13:50:48 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Btw i have been talking about GV bias not your AT. So it is strange to me that you sounded so defensive.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:50:52 GMT - 08/20/2018  
If it comes across that way it is not my intention. I am not sensitive about anything to do with trading - very thick skin - especially AT, which speaks for itself. The beauty of AT is I never have to defend it.

I am just pointing out the difference between John's macro bias and a day trading bias. I took the opportunity to point out what AT was showing as a way to encourage you guys (and gals) to try it.

So rather than defensive it was offensive.


Livingston nh  14:02:41 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Disconnect between FI and Stox in US and Europe -- US 30 yr nipped under 3% and 2/10 at 23// bonds know more than stox
//
S&P kinder to Turkey than expected - the complacency factor is dangerous

Venezuela leaves a lot of bagholders in bonds - USD/BRL above 4 next


dc CB  14:36:57 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Chrome Dome Predicts

Oops



dc CB  14:50:16 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Time to remember that time in September
When life was grand and we tasted the honey
Time to remember that time in September
After Bernanke told us "we'll give you free money"
Time to remember that time in September
When the The Shorts spilled their blood in the streets

Jackson Hole - Aug 23-24 2018
Powell Fri 10AM


Mtl JP  14:51:14 GMT - 08/20/2018  
and poloz on saturday


Mtl JP  15:04:03 GMT - 08/20/2018  
haha... J.P. Morgan slashed its stock price target to $195 from $308

reminds me of Rodney D on the golf course getting a call from broker...
"Everybody's buying? Then Sell, sell, sell."
but in reverse


Mtl JP  15:28:25 GMT - 08/20/2018  
My aversion to verbs is past tense is legend.

Could not say better why than Coreen T. Sol CFA: “A lagging indicator is something that tells you what is going to happen after it already happened.”


lkwd jj  15:38:28 GMT - 08/20/2018  
fade the news ?


Mtl JP  15:45:13 GMT - 08/20/2018  
IF u r refering to JPM/tsl
remember that institutional types do not like risk
at current 302-ish they neither unbridled buyer enthusiasts nor packed sellers - more like deer looking into headlights atm
-
Bottom Line
trading decision (trade or not trade) is yours
try does not count


Mtl JP  15:46:12 GMT - 08/20/2018  
packed = panicked


Mtl JP  16:25:13 GMT - 08/20/2018  
usdcad 1.3050 - 1.3150 range still struggling to break out
just whack-a-mole for now
good luck trading it


Mtl JP  16:40:17 GMT - 08/20/2018  
AT shows 1.1480 IF u want an uP side trgt


Kl Fs  16:54:43 GMT - 08/20/2018  
Trump wants usd become toilet paper, so be it. Cheers.


Mtl JP  17:03:49 GMT - 08/20/2018  
think powell is different ?
He whined to congressional committee that “U.S. fiscal policy has been on an unsustainable path for some time. It continues to be unsustainable.”

But bottom line is that the policy is still on unsustainable path.
When will it hit the proverbial wall: when the debt will equal GDP ?

IF GDP were to remain static at current ~20trillion trump still has 19trillion to play with


Mtl JP  17:15:08 GMT - 08/20/2018  
And so one can take a betting position:

Powell told Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal that he is “not concerned” about political pressure and that he’s keeping his focus on carrying out the Fed’s mandate from Congress:

“We have a long tradition here of conducting policy in a particular way, and that way is independent of all political concerns,” he said. “We do our work in a strictly nonpolitical way, based on detailed analysis, which we put on the record



Mtl JP  20:06:16 GMT - 08/20/2018  
10yr 2.823% = its lowest since May 29






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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