jp - CPI inflation maybe 4 to 4.5% in six months - markets have been willing to buy out to 30 yr w/ a negative real yield BUT that can turn quickly // Contagion in India and Indonesia currency, Turkey still on the edge
Powell doesn't take the economists' Unknowables too seriously - rates will rise (normal = 10 yr yield 2 above CPI)
so far seems like 1998 not 2008 -- problem is not in US banks (1988 and 2008) but EM --- QE can't fix that
Mtl JP 12:42:18 GMT - 09/06/2018
Livingston nh 11:19 // Despite what jerome's implied concern about USD's and interest rate's effect on EMs may be , I think that the powers that be do have good reason to be concerned about both usd and rates rising. It is called Contagion and it promises to have nega effect on some systemically important financial outfits.
So I keep an alert ear and eyeball on the Fed yikyaking about taming rate hikes - like bullard and kashkari are already - and all that is missing is yikyak about restarting the printer (i.e. QE).
I call it 2008 V.2. - Opportunity to get rich off the "authorities" interventionist solution of only thing they know: lower rates and printing.
On the other hand, in light of President Trump loading up on deficit and military expenditures and involvements here is my Qtn:
Which do you think has better odds of being seen first:
A- lower interest and renewed QE OR
B- 10-15-20% inflation / interest rates
Livingston nh 11:19:51 GMT - 09/05/2018
Every blip in Stox is blamed on TRADE but the EM turmoil is being ignored as "idiosyncratic" not contagion but every day a new patient gets wheeled in // FX is a leading indicator --See if we get a new theme in stox this month as contagion jumps species
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