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Dillon AL  23:56:25 GMT - 09/21/2018  
something they should have done 2 years ago. All my posts both sides of The Forum have been about how The EU were not negotiating and now its out in the open. Whats crazy is the total silence. Silence comes from fear. The UK will not just be better off being outside the club but clearly the club feels stabbed in the back however they forget one thing ....The People requested this when they were asked the question....IE The peasants revolted. More fool The EU for around the corner there are a couple of former Eastern Bloc countries who may get fed up with Brussels and then there s always that thorny question..... Italy....They are right to be afraid but they are wrong to blame The UK

Mtl JP  23:33:56 GMT - 09/21/2018  
U.K.’s Theresa May Says Brexit Negotiations Have Reached ‘an Impasse’ - wsj

The prime minister said it was now up to the European Union to provide an alternative Brexit deal

dc CB  19:02:35 GMT - 09/21/2018  
But the New Yawk Times now sez it happened --- "so it mus' be da trooot"

Mr. Rosenstein made the remarks about secretly recording Mr. Trump and about the 25th Amendment in meetings and conversations with other Justice Department and F.B.I. officials. Several people described the episodes, insisting on anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The people were briefed either on the events themselves or on memos written by F.B.I. officials, including Andrew G. McCabe, then the acting bureau director, that documented Mr. Rosenstein’s actions and comments.

None of Mr. Rosenstein’s proposals apparently came to fruition. It is not clear how determined he was about seeing them through, though he did tell Mr. McCabe that he might be able to persuade Attorney General Jeff Sessions and John F. Kelly, then the secretary of homeland security and now the White House chief of staff, to mount an effort to invoke the 25th Amendment.

Mr. Rosenstein then raised the idea of wearing a recording device or "wire," as he put it, to secretly tape the president when he visited the White House. One participant asked whether Mr. Rosenstein was serious, and he replied animatedly that he was.

dc CB  18:57:35 GMT - 09/21/2018  
yup, anyone calling what has been going on for the last two years "an attempt at a soft coup" is obviously bonkers, crazy, looney tunes and a Conspiracy Wacko, spreadin FAKE NEWS.

GVI 18:06:22 GMT - 09/21/2018  
Deputy AG Rosenstein reportedly suggested that he secretly recorded Pres Trump to expose chaos in administration; discussed seeking to recruit cabinet members to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office - NY Times - Rosenstein reportedly talked to other officials about wearing a wire to record the President and discussed invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump in the days after Comey was fired in May 2017- He also reportedly said that Rosenstein thought he was being used by Trump in Trump's reasoning to fire former FBI head Jim Comey

- Source

GVI Trader john  17:14:14 GMT - 09/21/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 1052 vs. 1055 (-3) prev.
Oil: 866 vs. 867 (-1) prev.
Canada: 197 vs. 226 (-29)

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GVI 16:51:41 GMT - 09/21/2018  
Senior White House Official: we're still optimistic that US can reach a trade deal with Canada but it's up to Canada - We're sticking to our guns on dairy in the NAFTA talks- Hopeful Canada deal can be reached by Sept 30th- There's reason to believe US lawmakers would support a Mexico-only deal - Source

GVI Trader john  13:45:34 GMT - 09/21/2018  
U.S. flash Markit Mfg & SVC PMI September 2018

mfg: 55.6 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 54.7 prev.
svc: 52.9 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.8 prev.

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GVI Forex 13:39:48 GMT - 09/21/2018  
USDCAD pops on this

09:38 (US) White House Chief Economist Hassett: we're very, very close to having to go forward on a trade deal with Mexico and not Canada - TV interview

- Source

GVI 13:04:56 GMT - 09/21/2018  
PM May: we've always said Brexit talks would be tough; toughest moment will be the final strait; both sides still want a deal - Brexit negotiations statement **Reminder earlier in session we saw conflicting reports on whether or not PM May would make a statement. The Times tweeted she had 3 options (suspend negotiations, ramp up 'no deal' planning, ramp up linguistically without substance ). Shortly afterwards the BBC reported PM May will not change tack on Brexit - Source

GVI 13:04:55 GMT - 09/21/2018  
PM May: we've always said Brexit talks would be tough; toughest moment will be the final strait; both sides still want a deal - Brexit negotiations statement **Reminder earlier in session we saw conflicting reports on whether or not PM May would make a statement. The Times tweeted she had 3 options (suspend negotiations, ramp up 'no deal' planning, ramp up linguistically without substance ). Shortly afterwards the BBC reported PM May will not change tack on Brexit - Source

GVI Trader john  13:03:05 GMT - 09/21/2018  
UK blaming PM May delay on "Technical Difficulties". If you believe that...

GVI Trader john  12:41:57 GMT - 09/21/2018  
PM May announcement due in 5mins delayed. >>

GVI Trader john  12:33:34 GMT - 09/21/2018  
Canada: CPI (August) Retail Sales (July) 2018

Headline CPI
mm: -0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
yy: 2.80% vs. +2.80% exp. vs. +3.00% prev.

Retail Sales
Headline: +0.30% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
X-Autos: +0.90% vs. 0.60% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.

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GVI 08:48:04 GMT - 09/21/2018  
PM May’s team are exploring ways to insert the “consent principle” into the EU’s proposed Northern Ireland backstop - Politico article - The move is part of a two-pronged diplomatic assault to heavily modify the backstop — which both sides agreed to in principle last December — so that May can sell it to her own party and to the Democratic Unionist MPs whose votes prop up her government. - Source

GVI Trader john  08:03:08 GMT - 09/21/2018  
Mixed PMIs Mfg readings weak. Services mixed.

GVI Trader john  08:02:12 GMT - 09/21/2018  
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash PMIs September 2018

mfg: 53.3 vs. 54.5 exp. vs. 54.6 prev.
svc: 54.7 vs. 54.4 exp. vs. 54.4 prev.

mfg: 53.7 vs. 55.7 exp. vs. 55.9 prev.
svc: 56.5 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 55.0 prev.

mfg: 52.5 vs. 53.3 exp. vs. 53.5 prev.
svc: 54.3 vs. 55.4 exp. vs. 55.4 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI 14:59:57 GMT - 09/20/2018  
British and French military jets reportedly were scrambled to respond to potential Russian jets over the North Sea - UK press - Source

GVI Trader john  14:33:40 GMT - 09/20/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts

(BCF) +86 vs: +83 expected

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GVI Trader john  14:01:07 GMT - 09/20/2018  
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) August 2018


p.a. s.a.: 5.340 vs. 5.380 exp. vs 5.340 (r. ) prev.

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U.S. Leading Indicators August 2018
U.S. Data Charts

+0.40% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.60% (r) prev.

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GVI 13:54:06 GMT - 09/20/2018  
Prime Min May: we had a productive summit; EU's Tusk confirmed commitment to reach a deal - post Salzburg meeting comments - UK's white paper is the only serious proposal on the table; I am confident we will reach a deal- Reiterates can be no withdrawal agreement with backstop in Ireland; backstop cannot divide UK into two separate parts - Source

GVI 13:21:29 GMT - 09/20/2018  
EU President Tusk: reiterates there will be no Brexit agreement without an Irish backstop - Salzburg press conf - PM May's Chequers framework for economic cooperation will not work- Oct 18th summit will be a moment of truth for Brexit; maximum progress is needed in Oct - Source

GVI Trader john  12:30:42 GMT - 09/20/2018  
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Philly Fed Index September 2018


+22 vs. +16.0 exp. vs. +11.0 prev.

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US Weekly Jobless Claims


201K vs. 210K exp vs. 204K (r. n/a ) prev.

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Mtl JP  11:41:47 GMT - 09/20/2018  
alternately, he could stop "protecting" them.
and how are they supposed to pay for all the personnel and toys that "protect" them with 10-40 dlr barrel ?

GVI 11:29:49 GMT - 09/20/2018  
US President Trump tweets "We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now! - Source

GVI 10:55:57 GMT - 09/20/2018  
UK PM May said to indicate no backstop deal in time for October deadline - press - Source

GVI 10:55:56 GMT - 09/20/2018  
UK PM May said to indicate no backstop deal in time for October deadline - press - Source

GVI Trader john  08:42:11 GMT - 09/20/2018  
Retail Sales Better than expected.

GVI Trader john  08:41:32 GMT - 09/20/2018  

U.K. Retail Sales August 2018


mm:+0.30% v -0.10% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.90%) prev.
x-fuel & autos
mm: +0.30% v -0.40% exp. vs. +0.90% (r +1.10%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales

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Dillon AL  22:18:28 GMT - 09/19/2018  
EU needs to understand that The UK is a major source of tourism into The EU. UK families could easily be persuaded to go elsewhere. Then how would The Costas and Balearic isles look relying solely on Germans with beach bagging towels

Tourism stats

GVI 21:33:23 GMT - 09/19/2018  
Prime Min May reportedly told EU leaders that extending Brexit talks is not an option; there will not be a second referendum; Northern Ireland cannot have a separate customs regime - Prepared to tell EU leaders to drop the unacceptable Brexit demands and the onus is on all of us to get deal done - Source

GVI 18:10:54 GMT - 09/19/2018  
Brexit Minister Raab: need to see EU move in our direction in Brexit talks, if we don't get that it will be a lose-lose situation - Brexit negotiations can be intense but have been professional - Source

PAR 17:35:40 GMT - 09/19/2018  
Brexit . There is just NO Brexit deal .

May just wants to stay in Europe club without paying membership fee.

It makes no sense. Go and enjoy the Commonwealth . Please leave Europe asap .

GVI 17:27:09 GMT - 09/19/2018  
Irish PM Varadkar: we are no closer to a Brexit deal than we were in March - Ireland would suffer in a no-deal Brexit situation - Source

GVI 17:22:26 GMT - 09/19/2018  
Prime Min May: reiterates EU will need to evolve its position, too, like the UK has done; will talk to EU leaders about the Chequers plan, believes it is the right proposal - Chequers is the only credible plan to ensure frictionless trade and no hard Irish border - Welcomes EU's Barnier's recognition that a new proposal on Irish border is needed; original EU plan was not acceptable - My govt will never accept a second referendum on Brexit - We cannot accept Northern Ireland being carved away- Our proposal is a fair arrangement that will work for EU and UK economy without undermining single market - Source

GVI 17:21:40 GMT - 09/19/2018  
EU's Juncker: EU and UK are still far away from a Brexit deal - press - Germany Chancellor Merkel: There won't be any decisions made at the Salzburg summit; hopes there will be a Brexit in a good atmosphere with mutual respect- We're slowly moving into Brexit's final phase of negotiations - Source

GVI 15:00:27 GMT - 09/19/2018  
Austria Chancellor Kurz: we need to reach a Brexit agreement; anything else would hurt both sides

- EU Negotiator Barnier has made a step toward the UK; we expect a reciprocal action from the UK

- Both sides will need to try to find compromise; I'm still optimistic

- Source

GVI Trader john  14:31:27 GMT - 09/19/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -2.100 vs. -0.800 exp vs. -5.300 prev.
Distillates: +0.800 vs. +0.200 exp vs. -5.300 prev.
Gasoline: -1.700 vs. -0.500 exp vs. +1.300 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI 13:04:19 GMT - 09/19/2018  
EU's Tusk: Brexit negotiations are entering a decisive phase - UK must rework proposals on Northern Ireland and future trade- There is more hope but less and less time - There is readiness to cooperate closely on certain issues

- Source

GVI Trader john  12:33:26 GMT - 09/19/2018  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) August 2018

Starts: 1.280 vs. 1.230 exp. vs. 1.170 (r 1.303) prev.
Permits: 1.230 vs. 1.300 exp. vs. 1.310 (r 1.311) prev.

New Residential Construction

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U.S. Current Account 2Q18 (USD bln)

-101.5 vs. -103.0 exp. vs. -124.0 (-121.7) prev.

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GVI 11:11:36 GMT - 09/19/2018  
UK PM May reportedly rejecting EU Barniers improved Irish Border offer - press - Reportedly set to reject as Mr Barnier has not dropped his insistence that NI to be treated as a separate customs jurisdiction from the rest of the UK.

- Source

GVI Trader john  08:34:10 GMT - 09/19/2018  
CPI much hotter than expected. GBP higher.

GVI Trader john  08:32:30 GMT - 09/19/2018  
U.K. CPI August 2018
U.K. Charts


CPI m/m: 0.70% vs. 0.50% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.
CPI y/y: +2.70% vs. +2.40% exp. vs. +2.50% prev.

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Mtl JP  18:10:35 GMT - 09/18/2018  
President Trump is such an under-appreciated uniting consensus builder:

'Another trillion in debt, here we come': Cohn sees Trump working with Democrats on infrastructure - CNBC

Mtl JP  17:53:46 GMT - 09/18/2018  
in another version of the "news"
Freeland said Tuesday she was not aware of a “threat letter” from a Republican politician calling on Canada to cooperate with NAFTA negotiations, saying they have been “extremely cooperative.”

GVI 17:21:42 GMT - 09/18/2018  
(CA) Canada Foreign Min Freeland: Canada is being extremely cooperative in the NAFTA discussion with the US - Source

Mtl JP  14:02:49 GMT - 09/18/2018  
not so breaking anymore as few hours old so only fwiw:

Donald Tusk: Responsible action needed to avoid Brexit 'catastrophe'
EU leaders will meet later this week to review the progress being made in negotiations

"Let me recall that limiting the damage caused by Brexit is our shared interest. Unfortunately, a no deal scenario is still quite possible. But if we all act responsibly, we can avoid a catastrophe."

GVI Trader john  14:00:16 GMT - 09/18/2018  
U.S. NAHB Index September 2018

67.0 vs. 66.0 exp. vs. 67.0 (r) prev.


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PAR 09:18:36 GMT - 09/18/2018  
European rules are created to be broken .

Remember deficits of 3 % of GDP and total debt of 60% of GDP .
Rules not worth the paper written on . Broken by everybody .
ECB does what it wants . Breaks every possible monetary rule . Organizes massive transfers.

Et alors .

Macron is like Trump . A president for the rich , elected with promises to help the people .

jkt abel  09:15:49 GMT - 09/18/2018  
French and Brits like water and oil

Mtl JP  09:09:53 GMT - 09/18/2018  
re nh 12:12 GMT September 17, 2018
A note of caution

your linked piece now refers to some new french concept, viz:
"the political declaration was not legally binding, its terms should be clear and that they would be held to by the EU during the trade deal negotiations in the possible 21-month transition period after Brexit.”

there is a reason the french have a reputation for pomposity

Mtl JP  08:49:38 GMT - 09/18/2018  
nh courageous BUT nameless/faceless "senior EU diplomats" have predicted...
good for trading while it lasts

Livingston nh  08:33:36 GMT - 09/18/2018  
Daily dose of BREXIT -
"The British government will have to experience its “darkest hour” and stare into the abyss of a no-deal Brexit before it will cave in to Brussels demands, senior EU diplomats have predicted."

Still talking past each other - more a food fight than a negotiation

GVI 21:39:40 GMT - 09/17/2018  
EU officials reportedly are insisting that the UK can't renegotiate Brexit - UK press

- Source

GVI 19:57:37 GMT - 09/17/2018  
UK Prime Min May: under a no-deal Brexit, there would be disruptions but UK has to make success of a potential no-deal Brexit - BBC interview

- Source

GVI 14:11:28 GMT - 09/17/2018  
EU Brexit Negotiator Barnier: Brexit deal is possible if integrity of single market is preserved - EU offers full support to Spain in Gibraltar Brexit discussions; talks must conclude as soon as possible - Source

Jkt Abel  13:52:27 GMT - 09/17/2018  
Above 13150 heading to 13290

Dubai MA  13:40:41 GMT - 09/17/2018  
Red, if you are around, is brexit on the road to a solution and is gbpusd headed for 1.32-1.35? TIA for your opinion.

Mtl JP  12:50:38 GMT - 09/17/2018  
in principle means only that they express a will to come back to negotiate again / some more while nothing specific has been agreed on.
GBP 1.3135 still some ways under its 100day
so until it breaches that and stays there = I call gbp mildly bullish

GVI 12:46:58 GMT - 09/17/2018  
Northern Ireland's DUP Official: DUP won't countenance anything that creates barriers to and within UK's internal market or erects barriers in customs or regulation

- Source

GVI Trader john  12:40:08 GMT - 09/17/2018  
GBP running with the "agreement in principle" on Brexit. Often an agreement in principle can be meaningful even if it is not binding.

GVI Trader john  12:34:32 GMT - 09/17/2018  
Empire PMI September, 2018

19.0 vs. 23.0 exp. vs. 20.6 prev.

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Mtl JP  12:19:33 GMT - 09/17/2018  
agreement in principle = basically meaning-less; no legal weight

Livingston nh  12:12:32 GMT - 09/17/2018  
A note of caution -- there is a world of difference in the meaning of an agreement in principle between the Franco-Prussian (EU) concepts of legal detail and Anglo Saxon Common Law concepts of legal intention

PAR 12:08:37 GMT - 09/17/2018  
Brexit looks like a done deal without much economic impact .

The more things change the more they stay the same .

GVI 12:01:47 GMT - 09/17/2018  
EU Council: Some parts of draft withdrawal agreement have already been agreed in principle by the UK and EU negotiators, although nothing is agreed until everything is agreed - Source

Livingston nh  11:40:33 GMT - 09/17/2018  
jp - the OWB (Older, Wiser, Better) folks will fight for status quo to your last farthing // they just don't get it

Mtl JP  11:34:05 GMT - 09/17/2018  
nh 11:23 were u typing that with a straight face or tears in your from agony or laughter ?

Livingston nh  11:23:36 GMT - 09/17/2018  
Elites are gathering the Clans as IMF chimes in on Brexit to assist Carney and Hammond - "Lagarde said the IMF’s forecast of 1.5% growth next year was based on a smooth exit from the EU. Her remarks were seized upon by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, as evidence that the UK had to strike a deal that would safeguard jobs and prosperity." GUARDIAN

GVI 10:58:54 GMT - 09/17/2018  
Govt spokesperson Slack: UK is making progress in talks with EU, reiterates confidence in reaching a Brexit deal - Chequers provides a basis for stable relationship with EU

- Source

GVI 10:17:29 GMT - 09/17/2018  
ECB's Vasiliauskas (Lithuania): No ground to talk about extension of ECB stimulus - speaks on pension reform -

-- Source

GVI Trader john  09:10:43 GMT - 09/17/2018  
Eurozone final HICP (CPI) August 2018

yy: +2.00% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.
yy: +1.00% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.

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EZ final August 2018 HICP (CPI) unrevised.

final Eurozone HICP Chart

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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