CB - you're right because nobody understands an unprecedented condition - Bernanke screwed the pooch w/ his purchase of Treasurys - he caused the hoarding (an economic phenomenn that RESULTS from lower/nega rates), killed the multiplier effect and created the deflation he feared (n.b., they still don't get it as they bemoan the absence of productivity (deflationary) as they strive for MORE inflation)
dc CB 19:31:18 GMT - 09/21/2018
I keep postiing about QT and never get a reaction here. I guess you all think it's not impt.
QT - Quantitative Tightening
Well from now until the end of this year Dec 31...the Fed Is NOT rolling over $118Billion in notes and bonds, As they Mature.
(click on the Notes and Bond tab)
ALWAYS been that way - again my opinion the Fed is dehoarding which is PRICE stimulative (I can't think of a monetary precedent - fiscally think the elimination of wage/price control and/or rationing) so the Fed is chasing its own shadow
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:09:52 GMT - 09/21/2018
nh, it is hard to decipher exactly what you are saying but if I read it right, you are saying the Fed will eventually kill the goose. Am I reading you correctly?
Livingston nh 19:04:48 GMT - 09/21/2018
NO - new highs vs new lows "should" confirm new high value (mathematically not required) - Nasdaq leads coming out of Bear Markets while Dow lags, Nasdaq folds first while DOW hangs on // we aren't in BEAR territory but the Fed is not near stopping -- but every Bear Market starts from NEW highs
The election is seen by the fanatical wings of both parties as a DEATH match so the markets will blame the election rhetoric (or the budget or the alignment of Jupiter) -- RATES RATES RATES focus on what they do not what they say
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:51:44 GMT - 09/21/2018
nh, you posted a few times that loser outweighed winners while indicies were marching to new record highs. has your view changed?
Second question is whether markets will shift their focus to the midterms and potential gridlock or more.
Livingston nh 18:43:06 GMT - 09/21/2018
"Last easy decision" won't be seen for a while imo // last year this time was the Financial Conditions Index (Dudley fav) - now the rising unseeable STARS /// Powell seems more grounded in his opinions than relying on a MODEL or Theory -- more a Facts on the Ground type -- they can believe in PCE Core but CPI is embedded in the economy
Mtl JP 17:45:09 GMT - 09/21/2018
"The economy is strong. Inflation is near our 2 percent objective and most people who want a job are finding one. We are setting policy to do what monetary policy can do to support continued growth, a strong labor market and inflation near 2 percent." Jerome in August.
Apparently something - woooo ... Record High Equities ..... are on fire. apes Greg Robb a senior reporter for MarketWatch Joe Lavorgna, chief economist for Natixis CIB Americas.
With its last easy decision, Fed will try to avoid adding fuel to the fire
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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