Mtl JP 09:56 GMT September 27, 2018
With the Fedís near-zero policy, households headed by someone 75 or older have lost $2,700 annually in interest income.
Reality is a way way way larger Theft than that.
A person 75 or older wud in all likelyhood, live a frugal life, and Saved for reitrement at 65- so from today - minus 10 Years that wud be 2008. Full on march to 0%.
Prior to that, the individual who Saved $400K --- reasonable amt for a Lifetime of work-- wud have been collecting in the most basic of safe savings 5% per year. $20,000. Not even taking into accnt the "miracle" of compounding, that individual has had ---$20K x 10Yrs - $200,000 Coercively removed by the FED and given to the BigBanks/Corps, etc.
All because they refused to Play in the risky MarKIts.
The really really odd thing, is the No One bit(hes about this.
Mtl JP 09:56:55 GMT - 09/27/2018
Winners and Losers
jerome, belated savior ?
more moRE MORE , lots of catch-up to do
Blast from the past:
Raise Interest Rates, Make Grandma Smile - wsj Nov. 19, 2014
while u figure things out
post jerome eurdlr action:
tested 1.18 and failed to breach it
crapped to a low of 1.1730
to currently settle around 1,1750
jerome succeeded causing only minor damage to some and small gains to others in the last hour or so.
The other Bottom Line
No new trend has been set off.
Protecting against Euro's weakness costing less.
Mtl JP 19:31:16 GMT - 09/26/2018
but jerome is just a former lawyer
what is the relevance ?
to trading ?
Bali Sja 19:28:26 GMT - 09/26/2018
You dont argue with a lawyer
Mtl JP 19:27:01 GMT - 09/26/2018
I believe jerome is a former lawyer.
Think I hear him say that absence of "accommodative" does not a signal a policy change.
how should , pray tell , he be defining "accomodative" when it is no longer in the gang's statement ?
PAR19:14:08 GMT - 09/26/2018
As a lawyer Powell has problems defining the word accommodative .
Mtl JP 18:57:06 GMT - 09/26/2018
what a relief it is to listen to jerome not so much on substance but just on style compared to that unbearably boring tone of voice and loquence of his miserably uncomfortable predecessor janet
GVI Trader john 18:41:38 GMT - 09/26/2018
September 26, 2018
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.
Implementation Note issued September 26, 2018
Last Update: September 26, 2018
Bali Sja 18:18:05 GMT - 09/26/2018
It is all about keeping the stox bid
PAR18:07:52 GMT - 09/26/2018
Sell VIX .
PAR18:06:12 GMT - 09/26/2018
PAR18:05:23 GMT - 09/26/2018
Powell is a great lawyer .
Bali Sja 17:55:49 GMT - 09/26/2018
Watch usdjpy and loonie, thats the clue
Bali Sja 17:54:45 GMT - 09/26/2018
Usd will rally big time
Mtl JP 17:49:09 GMT - 09/26/2018
Statement at 2pm
jerome yaks at 2:30pm
IF jerome comes out perceived less hawk than is currently priced in
DLR will sell off
Chicago AGA 17:48:32 GMT - 09/26/2018
... and if it goes up first. Sell above 1.18?
london red 17:35:44 GMT - 09/26/2018
my 2 cents euro down then up. yes hike but poss fed less hawkish than mkt expects.
Mtl JP 13:40:35 GMT - 09/26/2018
after jerome & gang macro will prefer trading DLR with bias: down
possible exception: usdyen
Mtl JP 13:40:22 GMT - 09/26/2018
after jerome & gang macro will prefer trading DLR with bias: down
possible exception: usdyen
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:32:46 GMT - 09/26/2018
Feel free to add your trading scenarios for after the Fed meeting.
Cape May jb 10:52:50 GMT - 09/26/2018
Fed has become very transparent on policy. I don't know of this is going to last much longer. A +25bp hike today is a sure bet and a December hike is highly probable. From there on, it really doesn't matter today. Lots of chatter they will drop the word "accomodative" as they move away from providing forward guidence. On that we will see.
Markets always react to the Fed decision, not always because its a surprise, but often just because they can. A big focus now is ECB policy. This has been a source of EURUSD demand as German bond yields have started to move higher. That could be the next focus once the Fed decision is out of the way.
singapore td 10:03:24 GMT - 09/26/2018
still 11680-11730 buying zone, i'll let you figure out your own risk tolerance
UK FX 09:48:24 GMT - 09/26/2018
td, any suggested levels?
UK FX 09:48:23 GMT - 09/26/2018
td, any suggested levels?
singapore td 09:43:48 GMT - 09/26/2018
yes, and therefore you sell usd on blips
UK FX 09:36:46 GMT - 09/26/2018
Price action before the announcement will give a clue to how traders are positioned. usd should be higher but it isn't.
bali sja 09:10:01 GMT - 09/26/2018
bad idea for 20 pips stop either side, knee jerk reaction will take those timid stops even if you are right
hk pw 09:04:57 GMT - 09/26/2018
how about buy 1,17 sell 1,18 stops 20 pips either side?
UK JY 08:53:41 GMT - 09/26/2018
Barring a surprise it is the first move that counts. EURUSD is the anti dollar so will set the tone. If first move is down expect a bounce and run towards 1.18 again, If first move is up, then harder to make the call.
Risk is everyone sees it the same way.
Anyone see it different?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:43:11 GMT - 09/26/2018
Posted overnight on the GVI/Amazing Trader Forum
Dillon AL 02:54 GMT 09/26/2018 - My Profile
Assuming that the prognosticators are correct, and the Fed hikes short-term rates by 1/4% when they finish their 2 day meeting tomorrow. What questions does that leave us with?
Will the Fed hint about whether there will be a 4th rate increase next year? and what kind of surprise could the Fed have in store?
Surprises could consist of the Fed not hiking rates or moving rates by 1/2% instead.
There is no way to predict how the markets would react to either surprise and these hypotheticals are not likely if you believe most analysts.
How would the markets react to the expected increase?
Typically long-term rates moving up several days or a few weeks before the meeting. That has already happened. Then rates move down a bit right after the announcement. Markets often move in anticipation of an event.....Reality vs Perception....
Where do we go from here?
There's no indication that the Fed feels that we are close to a neutral range with regard to short-term rates.
The economic news from now through the end of the year will give the Fed enough clues as to whether to act again or hold off.
Next week we have another jobs report and that data will be an important factor the Fed considers.
Most areas of the economy continue to be moderately strong
FX impact likely more of the same anti-Usd after an initial pro-Usd knee jerk
The question that should be asked is where are ma & pa s break even in terms of mortgage rates. Once that is known then we can predict the housing market rolling over due to a full valuation and that in turn producing a peak in Fed rates
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:24:51 GMT - 09/26/2018
As you can tell by the quiet in the market and here as well. especially after more choppy trading yesterday, many are sitting on their hands waiting for the Fed,
It is hopefully the quiet before the next storm so let's take the time during this lull to post some scenarios for the Fed.
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.