User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?
FOREX Forum

Forex Forum     ← Back to Forums


Sort Order: Latest Post on Top - Latest Post Last            Post Reply

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  08:24:51 GMT - 09/26/2018  
As you can tell by the quiet in the market and here as well. especially after more choppy trading yesterday, many are sitting on their hands waiting for the Fed,

It is hopefully the quiet before the next storm so let's take the time during this lull to post some scenarios for the Fed.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  08:43:11 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Posted overnight on the GVI/Amazing Trader Forum

FED
Dillon AL 02:54 GMT 09/26/2018 - My Profile
Assuming that the prognosticators are correct, and the Fed hikes short-term rates by 1/4% when they finish their 2 day meeting tomorrow. What questions does that leave us with?
Will the Fed hint about whether there will be a 4th rate increase next year? and what kind of surprise could the Fed have in store?

Surprises could consist of the Fed not hiking rates or moving rates by 1/2% instead.
There is no way to predict how the markets would react to either surprise and these hypotheticals are not likely if you believe most analysts.
How would the markets react to the expected increase?
Typically long-term rates moving up several days or a few weeks before the meeting. That has already happened. Then rates move down a bit right after the announcement. Markets often move in anticipation of an event.....Reality vs Perception....

Where do we go from here?
There's no indication that the Fed feels that we are close to a neutral range with regard to short-term rates.
The economic news from now through the end of the year will give the Fed enough clues as to whether to act again or hold off.
Next week we have another jobs report and that data will be an important factor the Fed considers.
Most areas of the economy continue to be moderately strong

FX impact likely more of the same anti-Usd after an initial pro-Usd knee jerk
The question that should be asked is where are ma & pa s break even in terms of mortgage rates. Once that is known then we can predict the housing market rolling over due to a full valuation and that in turn producing a peak in Fed rates
Reply


UK JY  08:53:41 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Barring a surprise it is the first move that counts. EURUSD is the anti dollar so will set the tone. If first move is down expect a bounce and run towards 1.18 again, If first move is up, then harder to make the call.

Risk is everyone sees it the same way.

Anyone see it different?


hk pw  09:04:57 GMT - 09/26/2018  
how about buy 1,17 sell 1,18 stops 20 pips either side?


bali sja  09:10:01 GMT - 09/26/2018  
bad idea for 20 pips stop either side, knee jerk reaction will take those timid stops even if you are right


UK FX  09:36:46 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Price action before the announcement will give a clue to how traders are positioned. usd should be higher but it isn't.


singapore td  09:43:48 GMT - 09/26/2018  
yes, and therefore you sell usd on blips


UK FX  09:48:23 GMT - 09/26/2018  
td, any suggested levels?


UK FX  09:48:24 GMT - 09/26/2018  
td, any suggested levels?


singapore td  10:03:24 GMT - 09/26/2018  
still 11680-11730 buying zone, i'll let you figure out your own risk tolerance


Cape May  jb  10:52:50 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Fed has become very transparent on policy. I don't know of this is going to last much longer. A +25bp hike today is a sure bet and a December hike is highly probable. From there on, it really doesn't matter today. Lots of chatter they will drop the word "accomodative" as they move away from providing forward guidence. On that we will see.

Markets always react to the Fed decision, not always because its a surprise, but often just because they can. A big focus now is ECB policy. This has been a source of EURUSD demand as German bond yields have started to move higher. That could be the next focus once the Fed decision is out of the way.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:32:46 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Feel free to add your trading scenarios for after the Fed meeting.


Mtl JP  13:40:22 GMT - 09/26/2018  
after jerome & gang macro will prefer trading DLR with bias: down
possible exception: usdyen


Mtl JP  13:40:35 GMT - 09/26/2018  
after jerome & gang macro will prefer trading DLR with bias: down
possible exception: usdyen


london red  17:35:44 GMT - 09/26/2018  
my 2 cents euro down then up. yes hike but poss fed less hawkish than mkt expects.


Chicago AGA  17:48:32 GMT - 09/26/2018  
... and if it goes up first. Sell above 1.18?


Mtl JP  17:49:09 GMT - 09/26/2018  
DLRX 03.73
EURDLR 1.1764

Statement at 2pm
jerome yaks at 2:30pm
-------------------------
IF jerome comes out perceived less hawk than is currently priced in
DLR will sell off


Bali Sja  17:54:45 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Usd will rally big time


Bali Sja  17:55:49 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Watch usdjpy and loonie, thats the clue


PAR 18:05:23 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Powell is a great lawyer .


PAR 18:06:12 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Stop hunting.


PAR 18:07:52 GMT - 09/26/2018  
Sell VIX .


Bali Sja  18:18:05 GMT - 09/26/2018  
It is all about keeping the stox bid


GVI Trader john  18:41:38 GMT - 09/26/2018  
September 26, 2018

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Implementation Note issued September 26, 2018

Last Update: September 26, 2018


Mtl JP  18:57:06 GMT - 09/26/2018  
what a relief it is to listen to jerome not so much on substance but just on style compared to that unbearably boring tone of voice and loquence of his miserably uncomfortable predecessor janet


PAR 19:14:08 GMT - 09/26/2018  
As a lawyer Powell has problems defining the word accommodative .


Mtl JP  19:27:01 GMT - 09/26/2018  
I believe jerome is a former lawyer.

Think I hear him say that absence of "accommodative" does not a signal a policy change.

how should , pray tell , he be defining "accomodative" when it is no longer in the gang's statement ?


Bali Sja  19:28:26 GMT - 09/26/2018  
You dont argue with a lawyer


Mtl JP  19:31:16 GMT - 09/26/2018  
but jerome is just a former lawyer
what is the relevance ?
to trading ?


Mtl JP  19:44:38 GMT - 09/26/2018  
while u figure things out
post jerome eurdlr action:
tested 1.18 and failed to breach it
crapped to a low of 1.1730
to currently settle around 1,1750

Bottom Line
jerome succeeded causing only minor damage to some and small gains to others in the last hour or so.

The other Bottom Line
No new trend has been set off.
Protecting against Euro's weakness costing less.


Mtl JP  09:56:55 GMT - 09/27/2018  
Winners and Losers
---------------------
jerome, belated savior ?
more moRE MORE , lots of catch-up to do

Blast from the past:
Raise Interest Rates, Make Grandma Smile - wsj Nov. 19, 2014

With the Fedís near-zero policy, households headed by someone 75 or older have lost $2,700 annually in interest income.



dc CB  19:24:03 GMT - 09/27/2018  
Mtl JP 09:56 GMT September 27, 2018
With the Fedís near-zero policy, households headed by someone 75 or older have lost $2,700 annually in interest income.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Reality is a way way way larger Theft than that.
A person 75 or older wud in all likelyhood, live a frugal life, and Saved for reitrement at 65- so from today - minus 10 Years that wud be 2008. Full on march to 0%.
Prior to that, the individual who Saved $400K --- reasonable amt for a Lifetime of work-- wud have been collecting in the most basic of safe savings 5% per year. $20,000. Not even taking into accnt the "miracle" of compounding, that individual has had ---$20K x 10Yrs - $200,000 Coercively removed by the FED and given to the BigBanks/Corps, etc.
All because they refused to Play in the risky MarKIts.

The really really odd thing, is the No One bit(hes about this.






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube




pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
The Amazing Trader
Forex Opportunities
Forex Affiliates
Forex CopyTrading
GVI Forex