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GVI 20:48:17 GMT - 11/25/2018  
PM May reiterated next weeks are crucial for country's future, will be one of the most significant votes in Parliament for many year; the best Brexit deal was achieved and in the national interest, there will be no other deal negotiated or second referendum

- Source

Mtl JP  22:13:42 GMT - 11/25/2018  
Winners and Losers
European leaders have finally approved a deal on the UK’s departure from the EU during an emergency summit in Brussels. The agreement now has to be endorsed– or rejected – by British MPs.

Wanna trade the Pound ?

GVI Trader john  09:03:35 GMT - 11/26/2018  
BREAKING NEWS: German IFO Survey November 2018


Climate: 102.0 vs. 102.3 exp. vs. 102.8 prev.
Current: 105.4 vs. 105.3 exp. vs. 105.9 (r. 106.1) prev.
Expectations: 98.7 vs. 99.2 exp. vs. 99.8 prev.

IFO Climate Survey

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GVI Trader john  09:04:30 GMT - 11/26/2018  
Headline Ifo Weaker.

GVI 22:50:26 GMT - 11/26/2018  
Brexiteers to back PM May plan if she says when she is quitting - Times

- Source

london red  09:26:11 GMT - 11/27/2018  
euro. key on close 11300/11315. closing below tgts sub 112

Belgrade Knez  09:45:09 GMT - 11/27/2018  
london red 09:26 GMT 11/27/2018
euro. key on close 11300/11315. closing below tgts sub 112

red, is that closing on daily, hourly ....., please?

london red  10:54:00 GMT - 11/27/2018  
daily. but some will use hourly close if seen to get into trade. a failure to close under this level day after a foray below will lead to a bounce so they must make it stick if goes down.

Belgrade Knez  10:56:57 GMT - 11/27/2018  
london red

thank you.

GVI 11:27:46 GMT - 11/27/2018  

Northern Ireland DUP leader Foster: Cannot support PM May's deal, backstop must go

- Problem is political declarations not binding

- May's visit likely to be waste of time, May is not going to get this deal though

- Offensive to say DUP might be bluffing

- Source

Livingston nh  12:10:57 GMT - 11/27/2018  
The Talk has begun in the UK (was yesterday a holiday?) - two weeks of this and then the EU gets to weigh in - Is this REALLY the "only deal possible"? - Will the notorious CAN KICKERS stay the Course? // More likely the EU's Cunning Plan has always been the implementation of the ever popular "New Referendum until you get it right" strategy

1.25 CABLE and 1.11 EUR on the Radar

GVI 13:29:35 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Fed Vice Chair Clarida (moderate, voter): Policy rate currently just below Fed's longer-run neutral estimates - Source

GVI Trader john  13:48:12 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Clarida VERY mildly dovish. I feel he is pre-saging Powell's comments tomorrow. He used the term "data-dependent". Suggests the upcoming Fed policy strategy.

GVI 13:51:37 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Gradual rate hikes appropriate as data shows way to neutral policy

- Need to be more data dependent as policy moves toward 'neutral'; policy is not on a pre-set course

- Policy rate currently just below Fed's longer-run neutral estimates

- Risks are less skewed to the downside then they were 3 years ago

- Proximity to neutral policy a matter of judgement - Recent weakness in business investment bears attention

- Market based gauges of future prices show inflation may be running below 2%

- Fed balance sheet should be as small as possible while still achieving objectives

- Source

Mtl JP  13:55:37 GMT - 11/27/2018  
The so-what is
that it is dollar supporting

gl trading today guys n gals

GVI Trader john  14:00:41 GMT - 11/27/2018  
U.S. Case Shiller-20 September 2018
U.S. Data Charts

+5.15% vs. +5.30% exp. vs. +5.55% prev.

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GVI Trader john  14:03:20 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Sounds like a more "pragmatic" rather than "dogmatic" Fed, which is a breath of fresh air. They are leaving the door open to different policy paths depending on which direction the data are pointing.

Mtl JP  14:08:53 GMT - 11/27/2018  
john more important is how players digest and react to the FED
THAT is where you or I either win or lose in our betting on player reactionary digestion of FED's pablum - not weather the FED is dogmatik or pragmatik

GVI 14:39:30 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Reportedly US President Trump to impose 25% tax on European carmakers next week after G20 meeting - German press - Source

GVI Trader john  15:01:55 GMT - 11/27/2018  
U.S. Conference Board Survey November 2018

135.7 vs. 135.7 exp. vs. 137.9 (r ) prev.

RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Data

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GVI 15:20:21 GMT - 11/27/2018  
EU spokesperson: Trade Min Malmstrom has no planned meetings with US Trade Rep Lighthizer

** NOTE: Earlier: (EU) Reportedly US President Trump to impose 25% tax on European carmakers next week after G20 meeting - German press

- Source

UK JY  15:24:19 GMT - 11/27/2018  
It doesn't hold together. if Trump was going to impose 25% tariffs then US stocks would not be higher. Only eurusd is lower but off its lows.

GVI 15:25:34 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Ireland PM Varadkar: 'no Brexit' deal is unlikely - Source

london red  15:30:43 GMT - 11/27/2018  
euro res by 11314/15 thats the pivot for next swing. bears need to push on from here else a technical squeeze a big risk.

Jkt Abel  17:31:12 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Euro short squeeze coming...

haifa ac  17:40:16 GMT - 11/27/2018  
"Euro short squeeze coming..."

To a theater near you?!

Jkt Abel  17:45:24 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Stick that up your ass, haifa ac!

london red  18:01:52 GMT - 11/27/2018  
short squeeze only if they recover to 11315 on close, otherwise 11186 looks favourite

haifa ac  18:08:32 GMT - 11/27/2018  
"Stick that up your ass, haifa ac!"

Ahh that beautiful holidays spirit--bless your soul.

Mtl JP  18:09:17 GMT - 11/27/2018  
eur 1.1280/75 = S

I am biased.
that today it will hold

GVI 18:18:52 GMT - 11/27/2018  
White House Adviser Kudlow: Pres Trump and China Pres Xi to meet for dinner on Saturday;

still divided on matters including IP theft - press -

- Trump means what he says; he may raise tariffs on China goods if there's no further through in talks

- Disappointed in China's response so far on trade issues; can't find much change in their approach

- Not sure whether the G20 will result in a joint communique; if we don't get one, there'd be no tears shed

- Source

GVI 19:02:36 GMT - 11/27/2018  
White House National Sec Adviser Bolton: Pres Trump has no plans to meet with Saudi Crown Prince MbS at G20 meeting - press

- Source

GVI 19:39:55 GMT - 11/27/2018  
Hearing reports from congressman currently at Walter Reed Medical that he's been told there is an active shooter on the premises

- Source

GVI 21:58:40 GMT - 11/27/2018  
PM May said to have backed down in Brexit disagreement with Parliament, will allow Parliament to amend the Brexit deal motion - press which would allow the Brexit deal to be amended before vote on Dec 11th

- Source

GVI Trader john  22:04:28 GMT - 11/27/2018  
This suggests to me that May has been told in no uncertain terms that her "Withdrawal Agreement" will not be approved as written. By permitting amendments, it is possible that SOMETHING can be passed. However I doubt the EU will be happy with it.

GVI 12:48:56 GMT - 11/28/2018  
PM May said to have backed down in Brexit disagreement with Parliament, will allow Parliament to amend the Brexit deal motion - press which would allow the Brexit deal to be amended before vote on Dec 11th - Source

GVI 12:50:21 GMT - 11/28/2018  
The next next ECB policy meeting is a week from tomorrow.

GVI Trader john  13:31:37 GMT - 11/28/2018  
U.S. GDP 3Q18

+3.50% vs. +3.60% exp. vs. +3.50% prev.


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U.S. (USD bn) Advance Goods Balance October 2018

-77.38 vs. -76.6 exp. vs. -76.3 prev.
U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

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GVI Trader john  13:32:30 GMT - 11/28/2018  
second reading of 3Q18 GDP unrevised.

GVI Trader john  15:00:17 GMT - 11/28/2018  
U.S. Richmond Fed Index November 2018

+14 vs. +16 exp. vs. +15 prev.

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U.S. New Home Sales October, 2018

544K vs. 583K exp. vs. 553K (r 597K) prev.

New Residential Sales

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GVI Trader john  15:31:38 GMT - 11/28/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: +3.600 vs. -0.800 exp vs. +4.900 prev.
Distillates: +2.600 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -0.800 prev.
Gasoline: -0.800 vs. 0.800 exp vs. -1.300 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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Jkt Abel  17:11:10 GMT - 11/28/2018  
Wonderful, we are watching movie titled AC's sore ass. Keep sticking it up dude! LOL

haifa ac 18:08 GMT November 27, 2018
"Stick that up your ass, haifa ac!"

Ahh that beautiful holidays spirit--bless your soul.

haifa ac 17:40 GMT November 27, 2018
"Euro short squeeze coming..."

To a theater near you?!

GVI 17:15:04 GMT - 11/28/2018  
FED'S POWELL: POLICY RATE IS 'JUST BELOW' ESTIMATES OF NEUTRAL; GREAT DEAL TO LIKE ABOUT THE US ECONOMY - PREPARED REMARKS AT NY ECONOMIC CLUB - No preset policy path; paying very close attention to data - Gradual US rate hikes balance the risks to the forecast - No dangerous excesses seen in the stock market - Fed is balancing risks of shortening expansion on one hand, higher inflation, and instability on the other - Close to mandates on price stability and maximum employment - Expects solid US growth, low unemployment, and near-target inflation - Impact of rate hikes is uncertain and may take year or more to see rate policy impacts - Discussions with contacts currently point to risks emanating from the normalization of monetary policy in the United States and elsewhere, the unsettled state of trade negotiations, Brexit negotiations, budget discussions between Italy and the European Union, and cyber-related disruptions. - Source

PAR 17:28:41 GMT - 11/28/2018  
Powell listens to Trump . Otherwise he will be fired.

GVI 17:51:05 GMT - 11/28/2018  
Fed's Powell: estimates of neutral rate and maximum employment rate are highly uncertain - Q&A at NY Economic Club - When you have a lot of uncertainty, you slow down and you feel your way around more; that's what we've been doing for some time with gradual policy. Gradual policy is meant to keep risks at bay, and we are learning as we go - Source

GVI Trader john  18:02:07 GMT - 11/28/2018  
Pre-Powell 10-yr 3.068%
Post-Powell 10-yr 3.066%

Powell message interest rates are "near-neutral"

PAR 18:21:27 GMT - 11/28/2018  
No more rate hikes ?

GVI Trader john  18:23:15 GMT - 11/28/2018  
Odds on a December rate hike are higher at 82% vs 80%. Otherwise one rate hike in 2019 has been priced out.

london red  18:45:42 GMT - 11/28/2018  
s&p. cash has key res by 2756-60 which they will try to test tomorrow. to avoid some lt death crosses the mkt needs to rally abv this zone by end of week and then carry on higher next. initial res from here 2747/48.

GVI Trader john  09:12:42 GMT - 11/29/2018  
German Unemployment November 2018

Rate: 5.00% vs. 5.10% exp. vs. 5.10% prev.
Change: -10K vs. -10K exp. vs. -11K (r ) prev.

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GVI Trader john  09:57:22 GMT - 11/29/2018  
Hundreds of German prosecutors Have descended on DB offices today for money laundering investigation.

GVI Forex 10:50:08 GMT - 11/29/2018  
05:45 (EU) EU Budget Commissioner Oettinger: Expects US car tariffs before Christmas - press

- Source

Mtl JP  11:13:24 GMT - 11/29/2018  
the so-what of that -> euro wobbled some

maybe worth remembering

Mtl JP  11:39:06 GMT - 11/29/2018  
john 09:57 // POOF DB ?
Poof DBs stock

GVI 12:19:52 GMT - 11/29/2018  
Earlier (about 15 mins ago) --

Russia and Saudis said to still be negotiating details of oil production cut - press - Russia said to accept need to cut in line with OPEC but prefer a more gradual process

- Source

Mtl JP  12:22:13 GMT - 11/29/2018  
normally such discussions would be considered collusion
normally ...

GVI Trader john  12:22:41 GMT - 11/29/2018  
USDCAD sharply lower and AUDUSD up on oil rebound (last $51.35).

GVI Trader john  12:27:27 GMT - 11/29/2018  
JP- those laws do not apply to oil producers...

GVI 12:33:19 GMT - 11/29/2018  
German Chancellor Merkel to have bilateral meetings with Trump, Putin and Xi at G20 - financial press - Source

Mtl JP  12:39:27 GMT - 11/29/2018  
john 12:27 nor to military alliances

GVI 13:01:14 GMT - 11/29/2018  
GERMANY NOV PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.4%E
- CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e

- Source

GVI 13:02:52 GMT - 11/29/2018  
German (and others) flash HICP suggest easier EZ flash HICP tomorrow. Probably due to falling oil prices...

GVI 13:24:26 GMT - 11/29/2018  
Russia Energy Min Novak confirms discussions with OPEC + on considering oil production - Source

GVI Trader john  13:31:36 GMT - 11/29/2018  
U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator October, 2018

Personal Income +0.50% vs. +0.40% exp v +0.20% prev.
Core PCE Defl +1.80% vs. +1.90% exp. vs. +2.00% prev. (r. +1.90%)

RELEASE: Personal Income

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US Weekly Jobless Claims


234K vs. 220K exp vs. 224K (r. ) prev.

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GVI Trader john  15:00:41 GMT - 11/29/2018  
U.S. Pending Homes Sales October, 2018

-2.60% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.05% (r +0.7%) prev.

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GVI Trader john  15:02:56 GMT - 11/29/2018  
Weak housing data.

GVI Trader john  15:32:28 GMT - 11/29/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts

(BCF) -59 vs: -80 expected

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GVI Trader john  15:40:59 GMT - 11/29/2018  
Dip in Nat Gas triggered a decline in CO => USDCAD decline. USDCAD improved as Crude recovered.

GVI 15:42:25 GMT - 11/29/2018  
White House Adviser Navarro reportedly back on guest list for Trump-Xi dinner meeting - Chinese press - Source

GVI Forex 16:23:15 GMT - 11/29/2018  
11:21 (CN) US and China reportedly considering deal to de-escalate trade disputes; likely would focus on delaying US tariffs in return for China policy modifications- press

- Source

GVI 18:19:05 GMT - 11/29/2018  
Reportedly MPs to propose amendment that would block PM May's Brexit deal - UK press

- Source

Livingston nh  18:50:17 GMT - 11/29/2018  
A few Minutes to 'til the MINUTES -- we will see how much of a Message Massage has been applied (compare the Statement to the Minutes) and perhaps a clue as to why R* has gone from far away to just below // Stox turmoil, Presidential tweets, hmmm is there now a Powell Put

GVI 19:05:46 GMT - 11/29/2018  

- Couple policymakers said current policy may be near its neutral level and further hikes could unduly slow the economy

- A few officials saw rising uncertainty in economic outlook

- Future policy statements to emphasize importance of incoming data

- Agreed risks to economic outlook appeared roughly balanced

- Fed officials divided on potential for further increase in labor force participation

- Some officials saw stronger dollar posing a downside risk to domestic growth and inflation

- Source

GVI Trader john  19:12:12 GMT - 11/29/2018  
Yesterday Chair Powell stole the thunder from the Minutes today. Not much new here to chew on.

Livingston nh  19:25:05 GMT - 11/29/2018  
But John what changed? the neutral rate didn't even get a nod in the Minutes or the Statement

GVI Trader john  19:29:28 GMT - 11/29/2018  
nh- Maybe they haven't figured out what a neutral rate is yet? Sounds like a profound idea, but...

london red  19:31:36 GMT - 11/29/2018  
s&p overcome 2746 now faces key battle at 200dma (2761) and bulls will want to avoid crossing dwn thru by 50dma (2773). if we are in a bear market, we will trade up to this cross area and then sellers will come in strongly. if mkt closes abv these and saves the cross, then u can expect a strong move higher to 2810/15 v quickly.

Livingston nh  19:40:13 GMT - 11/29/2018  
Yeah John, it's the ultimate rear view mirror

GVI Trader john  10:01:42 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) November 2018

yy: +2.00% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.20% prev.
yy: +1.00% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.1% prev.

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GVI Trader john  10:03:14 GMT - 11/30/2018  
HICP Core remains soft.

GVI Trader john  10:17:12 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Delayed EURUSD HICP reaction.

GVI 10:18:20 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Russia Energy Min Novak: OPEC and non-Opec members to reach an agreement on oil for 2019
- Will have an agreed position in Dec
- All OPEC, Non-OPEC deal members should comply to deal with no exceptions

- Source

GVI Trader john  10:19:14 GMT - 11/30/2018  
CO $50.87

UK JY  10:44:21 GMT - 11/30/2018  
It is eurgbp buying hitting gbp. May be month end flow.

manila tom  11:07:28 GMT - 11/30/2018  
the only play with cable seems to be sell rallies
whatever pops will be followed by sharp drops very quick
and thus eurgbp buy dips game too

london red  11:22:21 GMT - 11/30/2018  
watch the fixes today. demand may increase into them and tail off afterwards. eu fix 13:15gmt london 16gmt

EU AH  11:36:37 GMT - 11/30/2018  
red, demand for what?

london red  11:39:07 GMT - 11/30/2018  
for euros. uk payments to eu made at end of month. also draws specs due to this

GVI Trader john  14:49:12 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Chicago PMI November 2018

66.4 vs. 58.5 exp. vs. 58.4 prev.

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GVI Trader john  14:49:59 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Big Beat on Chicago PMI volatile series.

GVI 16:00:15 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Russia officials said to believe current oil industry dynamics are working well signaling super-OPEC support is fading - press - Source

Bali Sja  16:13:03 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Cluster of intraday resistance for cable 1.2760-80,anyone selling?

Bali Sja  16:43:59 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Short cable 1.2776

GVI Trader john  18:05:41 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 1076 vs. 1079 (-3) prev.
Oil: 887 vs. 885
(-3) prev.
Canada: N/a vs. 204 () prev.

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Bali Sja  18:06:05 GMT - 11/30/2018  
Out now for +30 pips. Have a great weekend

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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