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GVI Forex Blog  08:57:35 GMT - 11/26/2018  

AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 26 Nov 2018
AA 09:00 DE- IFO Climate
Tue 27 Nov 2018
A 15:00 US- CB Cons Confidence
Wed 28 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- GDP
A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 29 Nov 2018
A 09:00 DE- Employment
A 13:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
A 19:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Fri 30 Nov 2018
A 07:00 DE- Retail Sales
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP


Monday Trading Strategy 26 November 2018



GVI Trader john  09:45:54 GMT - 11/26/2018  
For AT Trading
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GVI EURUSD MACRO TREND Bias:
Neutral
Spot EURUSD: 1.1380
Pivot Point: 1.1361

Last Week: 1.1332-1.1472
Mon: 1.1326-1.1382

Fri: 1.1332-1.1421
Thu: 1.1364-1.1433
Wed: 1.1364-1.1425
Tue: 1.1358-1.1482

20-day avg: 1.1368
50-day avg: 1.1490
100-day avg: 1.1551
200-day avg: 1.1787

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points


Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 76% (76%).

10-yr Bonds
US: 3.059% +1.8bp
DE: 0.359% 0.0
GB: 1.393% +0.9
JP: 0.089% -0.7

DAX: +144
Implied Open
DJ: +270
SP: +39.0



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Livingston nh  10:19:05 GMT - 11/26/2018  
1. Before December's update it may be too early for Draghi to expand his headwind concerns and EUR is riding the Italian budget "offer" -- but Winter is coming

2. With the Brexit Finish Line in sight GBP seems to have found its footing - if markets fear uncertainty the weekend seems to have brought a simple current choice for investors - "Commons YES or NO"

YES is "Same old Same old" but NO is expected -- the lack of volatility so far indicates that little concern is expressed for the TOTAL uncertainty following a NO -- at the end of a long race Deep Snow usually appears just before the Finish Line so its rarely an easy trip

3. Powell speaks and like his ECB counterpart he awaits December update -- see if he tries to rein in the "irrational exuberance" for a 2019 pause before it gets out of control - yields need to pop to support the STOX rally


GVI Trader john  11:46:10 GMT - 11/26/2018  
DJ +240
3.061%
CO $50.88


Mtl JP  11:52:43 GMT - 11/26/2018  
Winners and Losers
----------------------
Goldman Models Impact of Rate-Shock Scenarios on Markets

Surprise hikes would hurt stocks, boost yields and dollar
Goldman model shows recession risk has increased over 2018



GVI 13:03:01 GMT - 11/26/2018  
Praet: the ECB may provide clarity on their reinvestment policy in December https://reut.rs/2KBHCKY

Praet: the ECB may provide clarity on their reinvestment policy in December --Reuters



GVI Trader john  13:33:46 GMT - 11/26/2018  
DJ +239
10s 3.059%
CO $51.34

Risk-On early Monday in pre-Open NY trade. Should be EURUSD positive if risk-on trading persists.

ECB's Draghi speaks shortly. Very recently he has been cautious about the EZ economy...


GVI Trader john  14:38:53 GMT - 11/26/2018  
As expected Draghi cautious on EZ economy, but so far saying nothing really new.

We continue to monitor equities. We often see buying on the NY open. Key is whether it follows through. DJ last +270.


GVI Trader john  14:55:27 GMT - 11/26/2018  
Risk On

DJ +224
10s 3.075%
CO $52.05


GVI Trader john  19:01:21 GMT - 11/26/2018  
DJ +258

CO 51.90

10s 3.072%

Equities off their HOD.
EURUSD and GBPUSD both looking heavy. Often a clear trend does not emerge until Wednesday.


Livingston nh  20:38:15 GMT - 11/26/2018  
Away from Europe - the USD grinds higher against MXN and pops against BRL -- Mexico may be the Turkey solution for US (maybe cheaper than a WALL) and Brazil gets a new sheriff, bracketed by two basket cases (Venezuela and Argentina) so maybe some foreign intervention in 2019 to the north (refugees/migrants)

Aussie poised to break below the rising 21 dma (crossing the 55 ema) -- MACD rolling over -- Finally?? back below 72






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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