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GVI Trader john  18:03:51 GMT - 12/14/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 1071 vs. 1075 (-4) prev.
Oil: 873 vs. 877 (-4) prev.
Canada: 198 vs. 186 (+12) prev.

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GVI Trader john  14:50:19 GMT - 12/14/2018  

mfg: 53.9 vs. 55.1 exp. vs. 55.1 prev.
svc: 53.4 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 54.7 prev.

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GVI Trader john  14:22:09 GMT - 12/14/2018  
Mixed Industrial Production data AFTER REVISIONS.

GVI Trader john  14:17:00 GMT - 12/14/2018  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization November 2018

Ind Production: +0.60% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.10% (r -0.20%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 78.5% vs. 78.6% exp. vs. 78.40% (r 78.1) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

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GVI Trader john  13:38:28 GMT - 12/14/2018  
Headline Retail Sales in line. Prior data revised higher.

GVI Trader john  13:34:22 GMT - 12/14/2018  
U.S. Retail Sales November 2018

Headline: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.80% (r +1.10%) prev.
Core (x-a) +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +1.0%)prev.

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GVI Forex 11:32:38 GMT - 12/14/2018  
06:22 (UK) Govt spokesperson Donnelly: Brussels talks are the start of process on Irish backstop
- UK Cabinet to discuss no-deal Brexit planning during week of Dec 17th
- PM May wants a Parliamentary vote on Brexit deal as soon as possible in January

- Source

GVI Trader john  11:06:27 GMT - 12/14/2018  

The BOJ Tankan Survey. Large Manufacturers index was +19 vs. +19 expected.+15 expected for 1Q19. The Tankan Survey is conducted by Bank of Japan on business confidence and the status of the Japanese economy. It is used to guide monetary policy decisions.

GVI Trader john  09:02:52 GMT - 12/14/2018  
EZ flash PMis miss, especially France

GVI Trader john  09:01:52 GMT - 12/14/2018  
EZ Flash PMIs December 2018

mfg: 51.4 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 51.8 prev.
svc: 51.4 vs. 53.4 exp. vs. 53.1 prev.

mfg: 51.5 vs. 51.7 exp. vs. 51.8 prev.
svc: 52.5 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 53.3 prev.

mfg: 49.7 vs. 50.7 exp. vs. 50.8 prev.
svc: 49.6 vs. 54.8 exp. vs. 55.1 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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Mtl JP  23:29:49 GMT - 12/13/2018  
john 16:02 else what - what IF
there is no vote ?

Livingston nh  19:57:01 GMT - 12/13/2018  
OK so what's in a name? -- This is as much about Ireland as it is DUP -- tell EU no backstop -- let Varadkar make the call to his EU buddies// this is pathetic, you would think the UK lost a WAR

GVI Trader john  19:53:39 GMT - 12/13/2018  
Typically vague proposal from PM May.

GVI 19:51:46 GMT - 12/13/2018  
PM May reportedly has suggested instead of an expiry date for the Irish backstop would propose a commencement date for the future relationship to EU27 leaders at the summit - Sky News

- Source

GVI Trader john  16:02:11 GMT - 12/13/2018  
UK Parliament returns from the holidays on Jan 7, 2019. They must vote on Brexit by January 21.2019.

GVI Forex 15:56:17 GMT - 12/13/2018  
10:55 (UK) Gov spokesperson; no vote on Brexit expected before Christmas break

- Source

GVI Trader john  15:31:17 GMT - 12/13/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts

(BCF) -77 vs: -84 expected

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GVI 14:22:44 GMT - 12/13/2018  
France Pres Macron: Brexit agreement cannot be changed; we cannot renegotiate what we agreed to (in line with other European leaders' positions) - Source

GVI Forex 13:51:00 GMT - 12/13/2018  
Look at EURGBP (weaker) for a source of EURUSD selling as Draghi speaks (dovish)

GVI Trader john  13:30:45 GMT - 12/13/2018  
US Weekly Jobless Claims


206K vs. 233K exp vs. 231K (r. 233K) prev.

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U.S. Import Prices October 2018

-1.60% vs. -0.90% exp. vs +0.40% (+0.50) prev.

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GVI 13:02:13 GMT - 12/13/2018  
ECB LEAVES MAIN 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED; Guides Reinvestment of QE to continue for an extended period of time - Source

GVI Trader john  12:45:14 GMT - 12/13/2018  
European Central Bank (ECB) December 13, 2018


Refi Rate Steady at 0.00%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.25%
Deposit Rate steady At -0.40%

Press Release: ECB Decision

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GVI 11:04:54 GMT - 12/13/2018  
House of Commons Leader Leadsom: UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal not scheduled next week but scheduled before Christmas - Vote on Brexit deal by Jan 21st 'At the latest' - Source

Sydney ACC  21:32:14 GMT - 12/12/2018  
Nevertheless the Brexit agreement as it stands is stil toasted.

With over 100 Tories voting for May's removal the bill won't pass the House.

london red  21:28:59 GMT - 12/12/2018  
dup have said they wont support a vote of no confidence in gov. so for now labour cannot make a move. thats supportive.

GVI 21:15:11 GMT - 12/12/2018  
Classic buy the rumor sell the fact reaction to a discounted event.

GVI 21:02:02 GMT - 12/12/2018  
PM May survives the Conservative Party confidence vote (as expected) - Vote was 200 to 117 - Having survived the vote, May cannot be subject to another party challenge for 1 year. She did reportedly promised Conservatives that she would not run as the head of the party in the next election and would step aside after the Brexit process is completed. - Source

GVI 20:29:45 GMT - 12/12/2018  
Reportedly final headcount is 176 Tory MPs declared support for PM May; rest are not known - UK's Telegraph - Source

GVI 20:07:38 GMT - 12/12/2018  
Brexiteers count 86 Tory members as voted that they have no confidence in PM May leadership (far short of number needed to oust May) - UK's Telegraph - Source

GVI Trader john  15:31:21 GMT - 12/12/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -1.200 vs. -2.900 exp vs. -7.000 prev.
Distillates: -1.500 vs. +1.700 exp vs. +3.800 prev.
Gasoline: -2.100 vs. +2.500 exp vs. +1.700 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

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GVI Forex 15:15:58 GMT - 12/12/2018  
10:13 (UK) Reportedly 185 MPs publicly support PM May ahead of the 'no confidence' vote today

*NOTE: PM May would need 158 votes to survive (simple majority out of 315 Conservative MPs). The ballot is secret so MPs may vote counter to their public statements.

- Source

Livingston nh  14:02:36 GMT - 12/12/2018  
A LAME DUCK -- the next election may be sooner rather than later

GVI 13:57:28 GMT - 12/12/2018  
So this is her last shot?

GVI 13:56:11 GMT - 12/12/2018  
Reportedly PM May to tell lawmakers she will not fight the next election - Source

GVI Trader john  13:33:00 GMT - 12/12/2018  
CPI dead on market forecasts.

GVI Trader john  13:31:32 GMT - 12/12/2018  
U.S. CPI November 2018

m/m: +0.0% vs. +0.00% exp. v +0.30% pre
y/y: +2.20% vs. +2.20% exp. v +2.10% pre
y/y: +2.20% vs. +2.20% exp. v +2.50% pre

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index

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GVI Forex 12:58:37 GMT - 12/12/2018  
EURUSD dips on this (more headline whipsaw roulette)

07:54 (IT) Italy PM Office said not will not confirm revised 2019 budget deficit figure

- Source

Livingston nh  12:45:27 GMT - 12/12/2018  
Italy should have waited until it could play the MACRON budget card

GVI Forex 12:39:16 GMT - 12/12/2018  
EURUSD popped on this

07:36 (IT) Italy Govt said to propose 2.0% budget deficit to GDP target in revised budget - financial press

- Source

Livingston nh  12:34:34 GMT - 12/12/2018  
jp - he's probably in the same unknown place as the former Interpol chief

Mtl JP  12:30:29 GMT - 12/12/2018  
nh those who need to understand - like justin - understand

China says it has no information on detained ex-Canadian diplomat

Livingston nh  12:23:15 GMT - 12/12/2018  
jp - Trump has indirectly endorsed "hostage taking" -- is the arrest a "fortunate coincidence" or a negotiating tactic from the playbook of NK and Iran

GVI 12:19:18 GMT - 12/12/2018  
PM May Leadership Challenge: Reportedly 153 Conservative MP's have publicly stated they will back PM May with 3 against - BBC Tweet **Note: PM May would need 158 votes to survive (simple majority). The ballot is secret so they can say anything in public. - Source

Mtl JP  07:09:45 GMT - 12/12/2018  
nh in the justin we are a rule of law society trudeau s world B.C. Supreme Court Justice William Ehrcke ordered Meng Wanzhou be released on $10-million bail while she awaits a formal extradition request from the great indispensable satan.

Funny how a justice can be made sensitive to a political message. I suspect ehrcke is breathing easier to have gotten rid of the mess out of his courtroom.

President Trump said on Tuesday he would intervene with the U.S. Justice Department in the case against a Chinese telecommunications executive if it would help secure a trade deal with Beijing.

“If I think it’s good for the country, if I think it’s good for what will be certainly the largest trade deal ever made – which is a very important thing – what’s good for national security – I would certainly intervene if I thought it was necessary,”

I suspect trudeau s pissing vinegar.

Dillon AL  00:25:44 GMT - 12/12/2018  
$7.5 mio bail


Livingston nh  22:15:38 GMT - 12/11/2018  
"Ten days after Canadian authorities detained a Chinese tech executive that the U.S. wants extradited, China reportedly has detained a former Canadian diplomat — ratcheting up tensions in this diplomatic row."


GVI Forex 20:35:43 GMT - 12/11/2018  
15:31 (UK) Senior govt source: expect confidence vote imminently - Buzzfeed
- Chairman of the 1922 Committee Graham Brady has reportedly asked to meet with PM May on Wednesday - Source

**NOTE: earlier reports have indicated that Conservative Party members believed they were close to the required 48 l

- Source

GVI 19:14:35 GMT - 12/11/2018  
BBC reporter tweets that Conservatives are sounding more confident about reaching threshold for a leadership challenge against PM May, and pressure is mounting to set a Brexit vote before Christmas break - "..senior tories are sounding more and more confident the threshold has been reached - more to the point a Remainer MP has just told me they will submit a letter too if there is not vote on deal by Christmas" - Source

dc CB  16:40:40 GMT - 12/11/2018  
When she was Chief ChairWarmer, and thot she'd be there for another 8 years (of course Hillary will be elected), Gammy assured us all that there wud be no crisis "in my lifetime"

Ooops Trump got in, she got tossed, and now sees a disaster in The Making. And of course it's Trump's fault.

Yellen warns of another potential financial crisis: ‘Gigantic holes in the system’

GVI Forex 16:30:29 GMT - 12/11/2018  
GBPUSD may have popped on this, another exmple opf headline roulette

11:11 (UK) UK BBC Politcal Editor Laura Kuenssberg tweets: And although it might be changing fast, was told pretty reliably an hour ago the level hadn’t been reached yet to trigger a vote "Meanwhile... PM’s spokesperson points out biz in Parliament set out until December 20th , in response to rumours about Parliament packing up early"

- Source

dc CB  16:11:45 GMT - 12/11/2018  
"I’m staying out of it - it’s basically like trying to pick a roller coaster as your commuter," says Loh, who oversees an artificial intelligence-driven hedge fund he jointly set up with former JPMorgan Chase & Co. FX option trader, Atsuo Ogaki.
"It’s so headline driven and everyone feels they’re entitled to give their opinion. So do I really want to be open to the vagaries of someone’s trading opinion right now? Not really.”

"It's A Horrible Mess": Disgusted Traders Refuse To Trade The British Pound Any More


NY JM  16:07:18 GMT - 12/11/2018  
Another example of news algos reacting to keywords in headlines.

Cape May JB  16:06:11 GMT - 12/11/2018  
the 48 letters story has been reported several times recently.

GVI Forex 16:03:14 GMT - 12/11/2018  
GBPUSD drops on but still holding 1.25+

Sky News reporting UK Tory MPs have the 48 letters needed to trigger a leadership no confidence vote.

Livingston nh  13:34:34 GMT - 12/11/2018  
PPI, a modest confirmation of recent ISM/Markit PMIs

GVI Trader john  13:32:26 GMT - 12/11/2018  
PPI hotter than expected.

GVI Trader john  13:31:32 GMT - 12/11/2018  
U.S. PPI November 2018

Final Demand: +0.10% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. +0.60% (r. ) prev.
Core: +0.30% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.50% (r. ) prev.

RELEASE: Producer Price Index

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Livingston nh  13:00:57 GMT - 12/11/2018  
The REFERENDUM wasn't about economic dissatisfaction - it was socio political / negotiations dragged because of the TRADE worries -- it ran afoul at the very end of touchy feely issues (aka principles) -- BOTH sides need to compromise and turn all of Ireland into a Free Trade Zone so Irish ports are ex/im between EU and UK

MAY makes the offer and THE EU rejects it BUT does Vradakar see the advantage -- the EU principles in the way are not based on the GFA

london red  12:08:55 GMT - 12/11/2018  
there is no solution if you want to stay true to the GFA. it means staying in the eu in some form.

NY JM  11:56:25 GMT - 12/11/2018  
So what do you suggest is the solution? If the backstop was a simple solution they would have resolved it a long time ago.

london red  11:41:48 GMT - 12/11/2018  
they cant change the backstop and fix it with a time limit since it will lead to a border in irish sea if no FTA done in time. thats not acceptable for all sides.

NY JM  11:28:03 GMT - 12/11/2018  
One base case view I read is that improving the backstop by making it finite rather than indefinite would eventually see parliament vote for the WA.

london red  11:04:05 GMT - 12/11/2018  
the WA may or may not eventually get thru, but the point is that the MP's have a meaninful vote on whatever the PM gets from Brussels. If they decide to vote against the package in front of them, they can vote to revoke article 50, given the ECJ ruling. The vast majority of MP's are remainers and because of this, will default to revoking article 50, if there is a no deal on the table. I really cannot see us getting to a no deal now, unless the MP's grow a conscience and act in the spirit of the referendum. It would of course mean political suicide to vote aginst the way of the referendum and keep the UK in the EU, but for many it will be a price worth paying, as most will be able to line up city jobs for themselves.

NY JM  10:55:17 GMT - 12/11/2018  
red. Are you saying the WA will eventually be passed as is or will changes be needed to get it through Parliament.?

The former suggests UK MPs will be blink while the latter suggests the EU will need to bend.

london red  10:09:35 GMT - 12/11/2018  
cable. 125 barrier, res by 12660/65 and 127. may set to meet with eu tomo afternoon.

london red  10:05:37 GMT - 12/11/2018  
funds are buying sterling as the plan has always been that the vote doesnt get thru on the first occasion, but eventually the MP's vote thru the WA, so buying dips makes sense for that strat. if it doesnt play out that way and there is no deal (now physically unlikely) then its a losing strat, but after yest ecj ruling and the MP's meaningful vote, the chances of a no deal are close to zero.

GVI Trader john  10:02:06 GMT - 12/11/2018  
ZEW mixed

GVI Trader john  10:01:09 GMT - 12/11/2018  
German ZEW Survey December 2018


Current Situation: 45.3 vs. 55.3 exp. vs. 58.3 prev.
Expectations: -17.5 vs. -28.0 exp. vs. -24.1 prev.

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UK JY  09:55:19 GMT - 12/11/2018  
GBP may also be up on defence as a desperate May heads to Brussels looking for a way out of the mess she created.

GVI Trader john  09:35:51 GMT - 12/11/2018  
u.K. Average yearnings beat estimates.

GVI Trader john  09:34:28 GMT - 12/11/2018  
U.K. Employment Oct/Nov 2018


Claimant Count (000): +21.9 vs. +13.2 exp. v. +20.2 (r 23.2) prev.
ILO Rate:4.10% vs. 4.10% exp. 4.10% prev.
earnings: 3.30% vs. 3.00% exp. vs. 3.00% (r) prev.
earnings x-bonus: 3.30% vs. 3.20% exp. vs. 3.20% (r) prev.

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london red  19:12:01 GMT - 12/10/2018  
double top s&p, they tried to go lower but so far a failed break as rebounded to create a long tail on daily candle. if they hold it into close could see a towel throwing rally to 2700 with 48hrs, maybe 2800 this week before turning lower again. its a tradeable rally where you can buy some of the beaten dwn names.

GVI 18:55:13 GMT - 12/10/2018  
EU's Tusk: decided to call European Council on Brexit Art. 50 on Thurs; We will not renegotiate the deal, including the backstop, but we are ready to discuss how to facilitate UK ratification - As time is running out, we will also discuss our preparedness for a no-deal scenario - Source

GVI Forex 15:55:17 GMT - 12/10/2018  
PM May spoke, GBP collapsed. Gilt yields off sharply, flight to safety.

GVI Forex 15:26:12 GMT - 12/10/2018  
Alert: TTN reporting PM May to speak in 5 minutes. Earlier it was report she was due to speak at 16:30 GMT

GVI Trader john  15:01:38 GMT - 12/10/2018  
October 2018 JOLTS Survey


vs. 7.079 mn exp vs. 7.010 mn (r 6.950) prev.

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GVI Forex 12:11:49 GMT - 12/10/2018  
07:03 (UK) PM May said to make oral statement to House of Commons at 11:30 ET (16:30 GMT) - financial press

- Title of the statement is "exiting the European Union"- labour official
- Brexit sec Barclay and House of Commons Leader Leadsom to also speak

- Source

london red  12:11:08 GMT - 12/10/2018  
problem is MP's will not allow uk to leave without a deal. they will go as far as revoking article 50 which the ecj said today can be done unilaterally. the majority of MP's are for staying in the EU and they are quite capable of doing such a number on the voting public. it would be political suicide, but they will do it anyway. i was expecting a no deal all along but i find it really difficult now to see a no deal scenario happening, unless the eu was to taking returning on present terms off the table, something it probably cannot do given the ecj ruling today. MP's just don't want no deal and will put absolutely anything else forward from their meaningful vote.

USA Trader  12:06:17 GMT - 12/10/2018  
Markets hate uncertainty and this is what we have right now.

EU can't give the UK a sweetheart deal as it would encourage others to leave

Irish-NI border issue is unsolvable,

Both UK and major EU leaders are in weakened political positions.

Conclusion: There is little room for compromise.

Hard Brexit may be on the only solution and amrkets need to factor in this risk.

london red  11:59:53 GMT - 12/10/2018  
now that vote pulled, according to ministers, may is going to go back to the eu, on which the onus is to offer something to avoid a repeat of present situation. there is a high risk play on the table, where the eu could do nothing, knowing that parliament will not allow a no deal exit, preferring to extend article 50 or revoke it completely, with a second referendum on the table. it is however political suicide. but it wouldnt be the eu's suicide, so they could well play hardball again.

Livingston nh  11:48:07 GMT - 12/10/2018  
John - it does seem that way - JY asked about this possibility last week // The FUBAR that PM has made out of Brexit would suggest a much lower Pound

GVI 11:30:27 GMT - 12/10/2018  

GVI 11:22:08 GMT - 12/10/2018  
UK Government Spokesperson: Confident on winning parlimanetary vote on Brexit deal; still going ahead Tuesday, Dec 11 - Source

GVI Trader john  11:04:24 GMT - 12/10/2018  
It smells to me like the BOE must be trying to defend 1.2700. Thoughts?

GVI Trader john  10:52:24 GMT - 12/10/2018  
GBP weaker.

GVI 10:50:24 GMT - 12/10/2018  
PM May to meet with Cabinet officials over the next thirty minutes to decide whether meaningful vote should go ahead as planned - financial press - Source

GVI Trader john  10:49:29 GMT - 12/10/2018  
Reportedly May's cabinet is meeting right now to decide if there will be a Brexit vote tomorrow. Presumably they are counting votes? not much point in voting of she is going to lose?

GVI Trader john  09:35:31 GMT - 12/10/2018  
UK Output/trade October 2018


Industrial: -0.60% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. 0.00% (r) prev.
Manufacturing: -0.90% vs. +0.00% exp. vs. +0.20% prev (r -0.10%)
Visible Trade
Total: -9.8 vs. -10.0 exp. vs. -9.7 (r -10.7) prev

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Dillon AL  06:08:42 GMT - 12/10/2018  
CBK at the bottom of a 52 week range and DBK at an all time low

Yes that would make perfect sense to merge two basket cases
and therefore create the conditions for both entities to literally disappear down the plughole to then find that The BUBA has to launch a lifeboat

The merger idea is the most senseless concoction

GVI 15:30:27 GMT - 12/09/2018  
Germany Finance Ministry said to be willing to manage a merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank - German mag Focus

- Source

GVI 21:29:36 GMT - 12/07/2018  
Labour party lining up rebel Tories for no confidence vote against PM May if the Brexit vote fails in Parliament - UK Times

- Source

GVI Trader john  18:06:45 GMT - 12/07/2018  
Baker Hughes Rig Count

Total: 1075 vs. 1076 (-1) prev.
Oil: 877 vs. 887 (-10) prev.
Canada: 186 vs. 199 (-13) prev.

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GVI 18:01:28 GMT - 12/07/2018  
Largest US banks said to consider challenging Volcker rule regulations based on verbiage in bill passed by Congress in May - Yahoo Finance - "A few double negatives buried in legislative text may have inadvertently freed nearly all U.S. banks from a regulation known as the Volcker Rule, which sought to curb risky behavior in response to the 2008 financial crisis."- "Under the “or” interpretation, an institution would in theory only need to meet one of those standards to get an exemption, meaning that banks above $10 billion could still be freed from the regulation as long as their trading assets and liabilities are below 5% of their total assets."

- Source

GVI Trader john  15:30:12 GMT - 12/07/2018  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts

(BCF) -63 vs: -64 expected

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GVI Trader john  15:02:17 GMT - 12/07/2018  
Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index December, 2018

97.5 vs. 97.1 exp. vs. 97.5 prev

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

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GVI Trader john  13:47:13 GMT - 12/07/2018  
10s 2.908%

GVI Trader john  13:45:05 GMT - 12/07/2018  
CO $54.01

GVI Trader john  13:40:14 GMT - 12/07/2018  
Canada EMPLOYMENT November 2018


Jobs: +94.1K vs. +10.0K exp. vs. +63.3K prev.
Full-Time +89.9K vs. n/a exp. vs. +33.9 exp
Rate: 5.60% vs. 5.80% exp. vs. 5.80% prev.

RELEASE: StatCan Monthly Employment Report

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GVI Trader john  13:38:12 GMT - 12/07/2018  
U.S. Employment November 2018


NFP Jobs:
+155K vs. +200K exp. vs. +250K (r +237K ) prev.
Rate: 3.70% vs. 3.70% exp. vs. 3.70% prev.

Avg earnings: +0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
BLS: Employment Situation Summary

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GVI Trader john  13:07:33 GMT - 12/07/2018  
CO $52.20

GVI 13:03:49 GMT - 12/07/2018  

GVI 11:32:14 GMT - 12/07/2018  
Chatter that talks are deadlocked due to Iran. They will not accept a "symbolic production cut.

GVI 11:30:32 GMT - 12/07/2018  
OPEC Delegate: Iran will not accept a symbolic production cut - Source

GVI Trader john  10:01:14 GMT - 12/07/2018  
EZ 3Q18 GDP 2018


mo/mo 0.20% vs. 0.20% exp. vs. 0.20% prev.
yr/yr 1.60% vs. 1.70% exp. vs. 1.70% prev.

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GVI 09:34:32 GMT - 12/07/2018  
) Saudi Oil Min: No confident of a production cut deal being reached today - Source

Livingston nh  01:16:29 GMT - 12/07/2018  
Powell screwed up when he referenced an unknowable (R*) and said we were far away -- he tried to reverse by saying we were close to an unknowable (R*) -- nobody is willing or able to give the "market" a NUMBER

Meanwhile the economy chugs along

Mtl JP  00:55:35 GMT - 12/07/2018  
Jerome is likely thinking that the - US10YY that reached 2.87, the lowest since Sep - needs correcting.

Possibly thinks that he needs to raise rates to weed out the inefficient, make capital investment/amortisation a priority vs. letting PE firms do self dealing deals by issuing junk bonds from their victims.
This does nothing to prepare for the next wave.

Mtl JP  00:49:44 GMT - 12/07/2018  
The yuan is down 5.5% against the dollar this year, on track for its biggest loss against the U.S. currency since 2016. One dollar recently purchased 6.88 offshore yuan CNHUSD, +0.0465%, compared with around 6.30 this summer.
- marketwatch

Mtl JP  00:42:47 GMT - 12/07/2018  
USDCAD 1.3388
1.3380 s/t support

GVI 23:41:09 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Fed Chair Powell: Reiterates economy currently performing very well overall; US Labor market is very strong by many measures

- Job creation is strong, wages gradually rising.

- Expansion benefits still not reaching some communities

- Source

GVI Forex 20:53:38 GMT - 12/06/2018  
15:25 (US) Fed still expected to raise rates in Dec, but now considering if it should signal a 'wait and see' stance in 2019 - WSJ

- Restrained inflation is decreasing pressure to make quarterly rate hikes
- Recent interviews show Fed officials still see the broad direction of short-term interest rates as higher in 2019, but they are becoming less sure of how fast they will need to tighten rates as they get close to neutral

- Source

GVI Trader john  16:58:53 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Discussion centering on 1mn bbd cut.
-- wire service

GVI 16:57:06 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Saudi Oil Min Falih: OPEC is still deliberating; there is no decision yet. Decision tomorrow.

- Source

GVI Trader john  16:04:36 GMT - 12/06/2018  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: -7.300 vs. -2.300 exp vs. +3.600 prev.
Distillates: +3.800 vs. +1.600 exp vs. +2.600 prev.
Gasoline: +1.700 vs. +1.300 exp vs. -0.800 prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john  15:03:56 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Factory Orders November 2018

-2.10% vs. -2.00% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.20%) prev. rev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john  15:02:01 GMT - 12/06/2018  
U.S. ISM Services PMI November 2018
MORE: U.S. Data Charts

60.7 vs. 59.1 exp. vs. 60.3 prev.
Employment sub-component
58.4 vs. 59.7 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh  15:01:22 GMT - 12/06/2018  
"On the price front, cost burdens faced by service sector firms rose at a strong rate. The pace of inflation was faster than the long-run series average, with greater input prices reportedly linked by survey respondents to higher fuel and labour costs. " PMI service // Inflation comes in different flavors -- companies will raise prices

GVI Trader john  15:01:06 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Canada Ivey PMI (sa) November 2018

57.2 vs. 59.1 exp. vs. 60.3 prev.

GVI Trader john  14:47:28 GMT - 12/06/2018  
U.S. Markit final Services PMI November 2018
U.S. Data Charts

54.7 vs. 54.4 exp. vs. 54.4 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john  13:33:50 GMT - 12/06/2018  
US Weekly Jobless Claims


231K vs. 224K exp vs. 234K (r. 235K ) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade October 2018

-55.5 vs. -55.0b exp. vs. -54.0b (r -5.46b) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-1.28 vs. -0.7 exp. vs. -0.40 (r )prev.
U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance

TTN: Live News Special Offer


U.S. Productivity 3Q18

+2.30% vs. +2.30% exp. vs. +2.20% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john  13:15:38 GMT - 12/06/2018  
U.S. ADP Private Employment October 2018
U.S. Data Charts


+179K vs. +198K exp. vs. +227K (r +225K) prev.

RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh  11:08:58 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Fed follows oil -- risk is oil still below $56 WTI sees FOMC either hold Dec rate hike or issue very dovish Statement -- Kaplan today @ 2pm est (see how he plays the "neutral rate")

GVI Trader john  10:34:53 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Note below that WTI prices falling sharply as OPEC meeting underway in Vienna. Questions being raised about the extent of production cuts. Falling oil prices are positive for consumers but a weight on oil company stocks.

CAD continues to fall after the BOC announcement to keep rates unchanged and weaker oil. Broad global sell-off (risk-off) in shares.

GVI Forex 10:13:58 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Stocks pressured after news that Huawei’s CFO was arrested in Canada earlier this week on request of US for a possible breach of US sanctions on Iran, which raised risk it would impact trade talks with China.

hk fs  10:09:36 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Why stocks selling off?

dc CB  04:49:40 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Earlier today: BeigeBook

Beige Book Confirms US Economy Is Slowing

GVI Forex 01:20:44 GMT - 12/06/2018  
Risk off, US stocks down

Livingston nh  20:56:52 GMT - 12/05/2018  
Until the actual vote MPs could take turns explaining "Who's on first?" (Abbot & Costello)

GVI 18:34:39 GMT - 12/05/2018  
BBC's Kuenssberg tweets: Jacob Rees Mogg has just told ERG meeting that DUP has told him in turn, they’d back the govt in a confidence vote if May’s compromise has been rejected by MPs - if not bets are off

- According to MP Mogg's understanding: If the Brexit deal is voted down, DUP keep the Tories in government; if May's Brexit deal passes, it's the end of the government

- Source

GVI 18:06:04 GMT - 12/05/2018  
Unite union leader McCluskey said to have privately warned Labour MPs against supporting a second Brexit referendum - Guardian

- Source

GVI Trader john  17:46:17 GMT - 12/05/2018  
EARLIER: 3Q16 GDP weaker than expected.

Australia GDP Chart

GVI Forex 17:28:41 GMT - 12/05/2018  
This sounds like desperate attempt to avoid defeat

12:24 (UK) UK Government reportedly seeking compromise to avoid defeat at Dec 11th vote; to include Parliamentary Veto on Backstop - press
- Government seeking to avoid defeat in Dec 11th vote on Brexit deal-

- Source

GVI 15:04:46 GMT - 12/05/2018  
Bank Of Canada

Comments- Rates will need to rise 'into a neutral range'- Low Oil prices reflect Geopolitics, Global growth uncertainty, US Shale Expansion- CPI Inflation just above target, Expected to ease In coming months- Downward historical revisions To GDP Could Mean More Room For Non-Inflationary Growth- Global economic expansion moderating largely as expected- Signs of trade conflicts weighing more heavily on global demand

- Source

GVI Trader john  15:00:31 GMT - 12/05/2018  
December 5, 2018 Bank of Canada Policy Decision

Target Rate unchanged ar 1.75%.

RELEASE: Bank of Canada

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GVI Forex 14:58:52 GMT - 12/05/2018  
BoC decision at the top of the hour.

UK JY  14:22:09 GMT - 12/05/2018  
I can answer. It is like a two ring circus, Tariff Trump in one ring and Brexit with random orders that appear in gbp and drive it up and down in thin liquidity.

The sideshows are central bank meetings (BoC today, ECB tomorrow) and OPEC.

London Trader  13:28:54 GMT - 12/05/2018  
red, jay, jp or anyone else.

Anyone have an idea when the paint will dry on my screen so we can get some movement is rates?

GVI Trader john  11:32:42 GMT - 12/05/2018  
For AT Trading
See the Amazing Trader Live!

Spot EURUSD: 1.1342
Pivot Point: 1.1360

This Week: 1.1317-1.1418
Wed: 1.1317-1.1358
Tue: 1.1319=1.1418
Mon: 1.1319-1.1380

Fri: 1.1305-1.1401
Thu: 1.1348-1.1401

20-day avg: 1.1354
50-day avg: 1.1436
100-day avg: 1.1525
200-day avg: 1.1754

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

Fed 25bp hike odds for Dec 19: 76% (80%).

GVI 11:10:56 GMT - 12/05/2018  
ECB said to be debating ideas for gradual stimulus withdrawal in 2019; new ways out from its easy policy - financial press

- Said to leave door open for new TLTRO

- Source

Dubai MA  11:08:03 GMT - 12/05/2018  
Is there Brexit news out?

UK JY  10:41:03 GMT - 12/05/2018  
This does not seem like a day to make a large wager but ranges seem too tight to last long.

Parliament seems to have reduced the risk of a deal or no deal outcome but it also seems to suggest the May deal will likely be rejected next week as it currently stands.

GVI Trader john  09:31:48 GMT - 12/05/2018  
Much WEAKER than expected.

GVI Trader john  09:31:14 GMT - 12/05/2018  
GB Services PMI November 2018


50.4 vs. 52.5 exp. vs. 52.2 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john  09:28:03 GMT - 12/05/2018  
Latest street UK Service PMI forecasts for higher at 52.5 from a weaker estimate earlier

GVI Trader john  09:01:23 GMT - 12/05/2018  
Mixed to slightly Higher Service PMI Revisions.

GVI Trader john  09:00:15 GMT - 12/05/2018  


EZ- Final Service PMIs November 2018
53.4 vs. 53.1 exp. vs. 53.1 (flash)
53.3 vs. 53.3 exp. vs. 53.3 (flash)

55.1 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 55.0 (flash)

50.3 vs. 49.3 exp. vs. 49.3 (flash)

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red  19:22:33 GMT - 12/04/2018  
MP's are going to get full access to the legal advice tomorrow. as for no brexit, the default is no brexit, so unless MP's vote for the withdrawal agreement or if nothing else gets agreed by BOTH sides, thats what will happen, a no deal brexit.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:52:29 GMT - 12/04/2018  
GBPUSD popped higher on this

12:46 (UK) UK PM May Government defeated 321-299 in Vote on Parliament Brexit Power Otherwise known as a Grieve amendment is meant to increase the power of MPs to decide what kind of Brexit, or no Brexit, will transpire.

- Note: Following this vote a no -deal Brexit is less likely as MPs can vote against a no deal Brexit

- Source

GVI Forex 17:03:23 GMT - 12/04/2018  
12:00 (UK) UK Parliament find Government in contempt over Brexit legal advice; UK Gov defeated in contempt motion 311-293 Related ()

- Source

GVI 15:03:37 GMT - 12/04/2018  
Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): the Fed has attained its dual mandate; many indicators show labor market is quite strong and healthy - Expects economy to growth at 2.5% next year, making for longest US expansion ever - Source

GVI Trader john  10:01:09 GMT - 12/04/2018  
Eurozone PPI November 2018

mm: +0.80% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.50% (r +0.60%) prev.

TTN: Live News Special

GVI Trader john  09:46:48 GMT - 12/04/2018  
GBP resumes its upswing on Brexit unwind.

singapore td  09:36:33 GMT - 12/04/2018  
so brexit-undo is the play?

GVI 09:33:33 GMT - 12/04/2018  

(UK) European Court of justice (ECJ) advisers: UK could pull Article 50 unilaterally (non-binding decision)

- Final ruling will come at a later date (Non-binding opinion which requires full ruling from judges)

**Insight: Ruling theoretically mean Britain could cancel Brexit negotiations and stay in EU without asking any of other Member States

- Source

GVI Trader john  09:31:56 GMT - 12/04/2018  
Construction PMI November 2018


53.4 vs. 52.5 exp. vs. 53.2 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john  15:01:21 GMT - 12/03/2018  
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI November 2018
U.S. Data Charts


59.3 vs. 57.6 exp. vs. 57.7 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI 14:59:44 GMT - 12/03/2018  
Brexit Sec Barclay: it will be challenging to win Brexit vote - Source

GVI Trader john  14:45:20 GMT - 12/03/2018  
U.S. Markit final Mfg PMI November 2018

55.3 vs. 55.4 exp. vs. 55.4 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john  14:30:17 GMT - 12/03/2018  
Canada Markit PMI November 2018

54.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 53.9 (r ) prev.

TTN: Live News Special

manila tom  11:09:59 GMT - 12/03/2018  
sell all cable pops, always the best game

Dubai MA  11:01:55 GMT - 12/03/2018  
ANy Brecit new out? Outside day in gbpusd.

GVI Trader john  10:28:40 GMT - 12/03/2018  
Note the lack of any kind of a meaningful bounce in the GBP following the unexpected gain the UK manufacturing PMI. Focus is on December 11 Brexit vote.

GVI Trader john  09:31:39 GMT - 12/03/2018  
Big beat in UK mfg PMI.

GVI Trader john  09:30:22 GMT - 12/03/2018  
GB Manufacturing PMI November 2018
U.K. Charts


53.1 vs. 51.7 exp. vs. 51.5 (r ) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trader john  09:03:16 GMT - 12/03/2018  
Most mfg PMIs (except Italy) revised higher by a hair.

GVI Trader john  09:00:42 GMT - 12/03/2018  
EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs November 2018

mfg: 51.8 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.5 flash
mfg: 51.8 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.5 flash
mfg: 50.8 vs. 50.7 exp. vs. 50.7 flash
mfg: 48.6 vs. 48.9 exp. vs. 49.2 flash

Markit PMI Press Release

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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