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Mtl JP  18:34:29 GMT - 03/17/2019  
Pivots:
GBPUSD 1.3265
EURGBP 0.8532

DUP demands seat at the table in future EU trade talks as price for backing May's deal



GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:22:20 GMT - 03/15/2019  
Knez. This has been discussed on the AT forum about a change in the market where liquidity providers, who are the pricing for fx, tend to pull back on bids or offers more quickly when they sense a large order going through. This is why you get this sudden spikes up or down and no follow through, which are like mini air pockets..


Belgrade Knez  12:13:47 GMT - 03/15/2019  
NY JM 09:47 GMT 03/15/2019 - My Profile

JM, I didn't talk about pre-scheduled news but about sudden move of 25-50 pips ..... as such moves usually doesn't continue unless backed up by important data or so....JMO


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:21:51 GMT - 03/15/2019  
JP, we cannot compete with the news algos as to getting the news first. All we can do is be aware of what triggered a move and then decide whether to go with it or fade it.

Bali made a good point and that is AT more often than not shows what side is mist vulnerable to news before it comes out. Also when news comes out most of us are trading rather than posting. GV does a good job posting breaking news/

AT also gives you levels to trade after news comes out. I can show you countless examples but you will then say it is posted after the fact.



Mtl JP  11:20:25 GMT - 03/15/2019  
Sja 10:37 plz fell free to live-demonstrate
at next opp


Bali Sja  10:37:47 GMT - 03/15/2019  
JP, AT can do it easily, beating everyone and every news beforehand


Mtl JP  10:32:44 GMT - 03/15/2019  
JM 09:47 respectfully I dis-agree
-
can u please point to one real-time post on GV calling a trade in real-time as news was coming out and beating the news algo i.e. profitably ?

tia


NY JM  09:47:40 GMT - 03/15/2019  
Knez

I disagree. We live in a headline driven trading world. It is important to be aware of what news is triggering a move. You can then make a reasonable assessment whether what you see on charts will follow through. Exsmples are the last ECB meeting and Brexit votes this week.


Belgrade Knez  08:16:59 GMT - 03/15/2019  
Singapore SC 07:56 GMT 03/15/2019
Brexit news? Gbp down

why do you always need to know the reason why market moved!?

someone buying someone selling ..... market goes up/down ....25-50 pips doesn't mean something major happen ..... watch the charts and trade accordingly


Sydney ACC  08:12:10 GMT - 03/15/2019  
Reuters reports UK Deputy PM Lidington stating UK wants orderly Brexit but default is to exit on March 29


london red  08:11:02 GMT - 03/15/2019  
you may be able to find some bits such as tory brexiteers lawyers rejecting AG Cox's fresh advice, but that facts are mkt is looking for a reason to take profit given that key vote is middle of next week. sterling wont go under 1.30 but it will drift lower. eugbp ~86 worth a fade, cable 13125-13175 likely sup also.


Singapore SC  07:56:45 GMT - 03/15/2019  
Brexit news? Gbp down


Bali Sja  00:06:35 GMT - 03/15/2019  
Yes JP, what a pathetic beggar mentality, keep begging brits.


Sydney ACC  21:59:15 GMT - 03/14/2019  
UK Telegraph reports Attornwey General Cox's new legal advice that UK can break Irish backstop unilaterally under Vienna Convention.

This assumption was raised earlier this week but discounted at the time.


Mtl JP  21:40:46 GMT - 03/14/2019  
gee-ziss, what did the britts sign themselves up for when they first joined the EU princes in their union. I still have "EU ? Lets get shot of it" coaster around... wistful memorabilia

So now the govvy can go beg for extension to Article 50 from March 29th . Exactly what that will be is not clear but what is apparently sure is that it will need to be unanimously approved (oh yo-yoy, ouch this hurts) by the EU27.

well at least this circus is providing volatility and so trading opps
besides continued humiliation


london red  18:46:02 GMT - 03/14/2019  
with not much going on now we may see some profit taking over next 24 hours. Levels around and abv 8600 worth fading. Cable 13125-13175 likelt to attract bids.


london red  17:12:18 GMT - 03/14/2019  
nh, correct. the irony is no deal gets us to a fta faster...


Mtl JP  16:56:15 GMT - 03/14/2019  
red 16:08 when it comes to co-mingling politics and FX
I try to remind myself that priceaction in FX can be is bi-directional
---
as 1.3286 holds


Livingston nh  16:30:00 GMT - 03/14/2019  
With respect only to the POUND (not politics or economy) a No Deal in two weeks is better than the Withdrawal Agreement -- The WA keeps the issues alive for two more years of uncertainty -- NO Deal may spike down but by Summer the Pound will be near these levels


Mtl JP  16:15:48 GMT - 03/14/2019  
guess the emotions are more pent-up than I appreciate


Mtl JP  16:14:10 GMT - 03/14/2019  
ieegadz.. I was thinking on drip drip 1.33 - 1.3350
not 1.37
not that I would not be happy


london red  16:08:21 GMT - 03/14/2019  
JP re your cliff dive, this can only happen on negative brexit related news, something which takes us away from soft brexit/extension to which we are currently going. otherwise, the drips of news will see a continued drift higher. a soft brexit is probably worth aroun 135-137 on cable, while euregbp around 8333 (1.20)


Mtl JP  16:05:52 GMT - 03/14/2019  
no need to watch the theatrics
magnitude and direction of priceaction
will tell how they r voting


Mtl JP  15:52:59 GMT - 03/14/2019  
GBP 1.3280-ish
current s/t bias setter point


Mtl JP  14:58:15 GMT - 03/14/2019  
GBP 1.3240-ish
-
seeing as gbp is currently allergic to testing 1.32
only reinforces red's earlier musing

which would imply that IF suddenly
GBP slumps to and does not firmly hold 1.32,
a cliff-dive to low 1.31 should not take long


GVI Trader john  13:42:20 GMT - 03/14/2019  
at this point, not much. Problem is finding someone who wants the job.


Mtl JP  13:30:41 GMT - 03/14/2019  
what would it take for Theresa to POOF! her leadership ?


london red  13:27:50 GMT - 03/14/2019  
no deal can be ruled for good if they go for WA. it can be ruled out for a period of time, the length of any extension they agree, but since it remains default option, it would still linger in such a case unless a trade agreement is made by the end of the extension period.
today they will be voting on extension which is certain to pass unless some amendments such as 2nd ref get thru, although highly unlikely to do so. but also will vote to have indicative votes in coming days on direction uk should take once extension decided.


Belgrade Knez  13:09:10 GMT - 03/14/2019  

hope EU will not allow extension of Brexit date and end this circus that UK politicians doing for last 2 years.


Mtl JP  13:05:38 GMT - 03/14/2019  
but a no-deal Brexit can not be 100% ruled out
at this time just yet


Mtl JP  12:24:43 GMT - 03/14/2019  
red thank you for that cheerful note

(10:39)


london red  12:12:24 GMT - 03/14/2019  
pressing for long extension is such a great play for eu. it gets 2 more years for uk to "rethink" its choice as well as getting money in the meantime out of the uk, while it also pressures the hrad brexiteers in tory party to accept the WA which puts the eu on higher ground in terms of future trade arrangements.


Mtl JP  12:08:14 GMT - 03/14/2019  
Brexit Article 50: Tusk to ask EU to consider long extension - BBC

Brexit extension beyond May means UK participation in EU elections: Commission

bite me



Mtl JP  11:46:47 GMT - 03/14/2019  
Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
22m22 minutes ago
More
My Administration looks forward to negotiating a large scale Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. The potential is unlimited!


Mtl JP  10:54:42 GMT - 03/14/2019  
UK lawmakers seek to force indicative votes on Brexit next steps
- Reuters·7 mins ago


Dillon AL  00:40:48 GMT - 03/14/2019  
Since when did Blair care about that. Remember Iraq


Mtl JP  00:07:04 GMT - 03/14/2019  
reports out that

Tony Blair has been advising Emmanuel Macron about how to keep Britain in the European Union, it has been reported.
- various news wires

Isn't conspiring with a foreign power to subvert the will of the people a capital offense ?


Mtl JP  20:50:54 GMT - 03/13/2019  
Brexit vote: May to promise delay until June or beyond after no-deal blow — live
Financial Times
9 mins ago


Livingston nh  20:44:10 GMT - 03/13/2019  
UK is now wholly dependent upon the kindness of strangers -- MAY is either delusional or devious beyond comprehension // either is unfit to lead


Mtl JP  20:22:39 GMT - 03/13/2019  
next shark trgt could be 1.3350


Mtl JP  20:15:34 GMT - 03/13/2019  
1.3287 res now POOF !


Mtl JP  20:06:23 GMT - 03/13/2019  
current GBP res at 1.3287


london red  19:46:40 GMT - 03/13/2019  
gov telling its mps to vote against motion given the spelman amendment passed earlier.


london red  19:46:05 GMT - 03/13/2019  
no cant say i am. main vote now.


Mtl JP  19:43:10 GMT - 03/13/2019  
red r u surprised ?


london red  19:38:22 GMT - 03/13/2019  
wow just listening to bbc rees-mogg interview now and they are so biased against no deal.


london red  19:35:15 GMT - 03/13/2019  
eu should just grow balls and not grant extension. its the only why the jump over exit and get str8 to fta talks. which would happen rather quickly then i would suspect.


PAR 19:27:32 GMT - 03/13/2019  
No to NO DEAL

NO to DEAL

Crazy BREXIT. Looks like UK can only vote NO, NO NOOO


london red  19:21:41 GMT - 03/13/2019  
amendment a has passed, expect some resignations tomorrow from tory cabinet, as some have gone against the government.


london red  18:51:39 GMT - 03/13/2019  
in a nutshell


Mtl JP  18:32:52 GMT - 03/13/2019  
It is easier to "get it" if you accept that the EU has two goals:
1) try to get UK to have a 2nd vote
and
2) IF UK is going to Brexit, EU wants to make an example of the exercise so as to intimidate any such future follies:
we are the EU. resistance to assimilate is futile


PAR 15:58:52 GMT - 03/13/2019  
I don't get it . No Deal is the best deal . Just get out . Europe will come back begging .


london red  15:34:42 GMT - 03/13/2019  
JP, tonite MPs are certain to vote to take no deal off the table, but until its replaced by an alternative (they will need ed to be accepted by the eu if involves a delay), then no deal is not truely off the table.


Mtl JP  14:43:36 GMT - 03/13/2019  
GBP and Brexit
for GBP to rock uP again
all it would take is a headline about parliamentarians taking no-deal off the table.

in the meantime looks like gbp riding on hope-timism


PAR 14:42:11 GMT - 03/13/2019  
No Deal Brexit could create a deflationary spiral in the UK . Tariffs go down , GBP hits new all time record high , Carney introduces NIRP ?






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