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GVI Trader john  12:33:39 GMT - 04/19/2019  
Starts and permits weaker. Starts lowest level since May 2017


GVI Trader john  12:32:18 GMT - 04/19/2019  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) March 2019




NEWS ALERT
Starts: 1.140 vs. 1.220 exp. vs. 1.162 (r 1.142) prev.
Permits: 1.270 vs. 1.295 exp. vs. 1.296 (r) prev.


New Residential Construction



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GVI Trader john  17:19:23 GMT - 04/18/2019  
Baker Hughes Rig Count


NEWS ALERT
U.S.
Total:1012 vs. 1022 (-10) prev.
Oil: 825 vs. 833 (-8) prev.
Canada: 66 vs. 66 (0) prev.


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Mtl JP  15:53:28 GMT - 04/18/2019  
nv bostic yaks in about 15 mins


GVI Trader john  14:44:37 GMT - 04/18/2019  
EIA U.S. Natural Gas
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
(BCF) +92 vs: +88 expected

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GVI Trader john  14:00:40 GMT - 04/18/2019  
U.S. Leading Indicators April 2019
U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+0.40% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. 0.20% (r) prev.


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GVI Trader john  13:54:32 GMT - 04/18/2019  
U.S. flash Markit Mfg & Service PMI. April 2019 data missed estimates. These remain second-tier releases. Final data come out at the start of the new month.

U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI



U.S. flash Markit Service PMI


GVI Trader john  13:47:22 GMT - 04/18/2019  
U.S. flash Markit Mfg & SVC PMI April 2019





ALERT
mfg: 52.4 vs. 52.8 exp. vs. 52.4 prev.
svc: 52.9 vs. 56.0 exp. vs. 55.3 prev.


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GVI Trader john  12:45:14 GMT - 04/18/2019  
Retail Sales February 2019
Canada Charts





NEWS ALERT
Retail Sales
Headline: +0.80% vs. -0.30% exp. vs. (r -0.40% prev.)
X-Autos: vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.10% (r -0.60%) prev.




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GVI Trader john  12:39:04 GMT - 04/18/2019  
U.S. Retail Sales March 2019



ALERT
Headline: +1.60% vs. 0.90% exp. vs. +0.20% (r ) prev.
Core (x-a) +0.60% vs. n/a exp. vs. -0.40% (r -0.20%) prev.




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-------


Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT
192K vs: 205K expected vs. 196K

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----

U.S. Philly Fed Index April 2019



NEWS ALERT

8.5 vs. +11.6 exp. vs. +13.7 prev.



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Livingston nh  12:21:03 GMT - 04/18/2019  
Dead Horse File -- ECB is creation of a flawed monetary system w/ national banks and different regulations -- it is operating inside a bifurcated EU economy consisting of tight fiscal and loose fiscal nations - there is no EU standard bond issuance, ECB purchase of national bonds (aka money) is deflationary (aka hoarding) and the negative interest rates imposed on finacial institutions makes the always dangerous Game of STRETCHING for YIELD a national past time

Saver based economies (JAPAN/Germany) operate differently than Credit based economies (US) -- ECB is not a Central Bank in the modern sense; its a book keeper for a Trade Zone -- it's a flawed system made worse by assuming it is a race horse and not a Donkey


Mtl JP  11:49:10 GMT - 04/18/2019  
did draghi not recently ventilate about some "many instruments" or "many tools" still available to him and his cohorts to screw up things even more ?


GVI Trader john  10:41:02 GMT - 04/18/2019  
JP- Not much the ECB can do. I think the problem more is wih the EU and national governments. They are locked into low growth, low productivity strategies.


GVI Trader john  08:33:29 GMT - 04/18/2019  
Big beat for UK weather was bad a year ago (big snow)


GVI Trader john  08:32:32 GMT - 04/18/2019  
U.K. Retail Sales March 2019



-- NEWS ALERT --

x-fuel & autos
mm: +1.2 % v -0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% (r+0.40%) prev.
Headline
mm: +1.10% v -0.30% exp. vs. +.40% (r +0.60% ) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


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Mtl JP  08:32:24 GMT - 04/18/2019  
john want to join me in nominating Draghi and ECB for nobel prize in market meddling ?


Mtl JP  08:28:32 GMT - 04/18/2019  
10yr german : 0.03%

via bbrg



GVI Trader john  08:28:09 GMT - 04/18/2019  
Data show Draghi and ECB gloom about the economy has been justified.


Mtl JP  08:18:25 GMT - 04/18/2019  
and the so-what of the German manufacturing numbers heading for the toilet = good news for trading opportunities in the EURO


GVI Trader john  08:15:39 GMT - 04/18/2019  
EZ Flash PMIs April 2019




ALERT
EZ
mfg: 47.8 vs. 48.0 exp. vs. 47.5 prev.
svc: 52.5 vs. 53.1 52.7 exp. vs. 53.3 prev.

German
mfg: 44.5 vs. 45.0 exp. vs. 44.1 prev.
svc: 55.6 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 55.4 prev.

France
mfg: 49.6 vs. 50.0 exp. vs. 49.7 prev.
svc: 50.5 vs. 49.8 exp. vs. 49.1 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



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GVI Trader john  07:50:28 GMT - 04/18/2019  
German Prelim Mfg PMI 44.5 vs 45.0 expected. Services PMI 55.6 vs 55.0. expected.

French PMI earlier 49.6 vs.50.0 exp.
Suggests EZ mfg PMI could be weaker as well at the top of the hour.


GVI Forex 18:07:01 GMT - 04/17/2019  
14:00 *(US) FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY EXPANDED AT SLIGHT TO MODERATE PACE
- Labor markets remained tight across districts, restraining growth
- Prices have risen modestly since prior Beige Book
- Consumer spending is mixed; saw sluggish sales for general retailer and auto dealers
- Most Fed districts reported stronger home sales
- Most Fed districts report moderate wage growth

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader john  14:37:39 GMT - 04/17/2019  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -1.400 vs. +2.300 exp vs. +7.000 prev.
Distillates: -0.400 vs. -0.850 exp vs.- 0.012 prev.
Gasoline: -1.200 vs. -2.000 exp vs. -7.700 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report



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GVI Trader john  13:30:58 GMT - 04/17/2019  
Canada: CPI March 2019 About as (y/y) expected.


GVI Trader john  12:37:37 GMT - 04/17/2019  
U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade February 2019



ALERT
-49.4 vs. -53.5b exp. vs. -51.1b (r) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-2.9 vs. -3.5 exp. vs. -4.2 (r )prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


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GVI Trader john  09:15:00 GMT - 04/17/2019  
EZ final March 2019 HICP (CPI) unrevised

final Eurozone HICP Chart


GVI Trader john  09:00:46 GMT - 04/17/2019  
Eurozone final HICP (CPI)
March 2019





ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.80% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.
CORE
yy: +1.40% vs. +1.40% exp. vs. +1.40% prev.



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GVI Trader john  08:34:47 GMT - 04/17/2019  
U.K. CPI March 2018
U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

CPI m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
CPI y/y: +1.90% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +1.90% prev.




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GVI Trader john  14:00:41 GMT - 04/16/2019  
U.S. NAHB Index April 2019



NEWS ALERT
63.0 vs. 63.0 exp. vs. 62.0 (r) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


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GVI Trader john  13:19:47 GMT - 04/16/2019  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization March 2019




ALERT
Ind Production: -0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% (r 0.0%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 78.8 vs. 79.1% exp. vs. 78.2% (r 79.10%) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



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GVI Forex 13:01:45 GMT - 04/16/2019  
Little reaction so far to this

09:00 (UK) UK Labour Party Spokesperson: Not true that Brexit talks have stalled with the UK Government

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI john  12:43:50 GMT - 04/16/2019  
GBPUSD down on this

Cross party talks between Tories and Labour on Brexit path said to have stalled - Source TradeTheNews.com


KL 11:09:26 GMT - 04/16/2019  
Fake econometric models as usual. :-)


London Trader  10:54:05 GMT - 04/16/2019  
At least we got some excitement even though the news headlines were meaningless. . Use 1,13 as a pivot as it is about halfway between 1.1280-1.1320


GVI Forex 10:06:06 GMT - 04/16/2019  
Headline whipsaw. EURUSD pops on this

06:03 (EU) ECB said to lack enthusiasm for sub-zero tiering; have not discussed further deposit rate cuts as have plenty of other tools at its disposal - Some ECB officials doubt tiering will happen, tiering debate is said to underline plenty tools still left - Source TradeTheNews.com


PAR 09:28:37 GMT - 04/16/2019  
Nothing new , these econometric models have been always wrong as have been the ECB policies based on those junk models .


GVI Forex 09:21:35 GMT - 04/16/2019  
EURUSD fell on this

05:14 (EU) Significant minority of ECB policymakers said to doubt projections for growth rebound in H2 2019 - Some even question accuracy of forecasting models

- Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Trader john  09:04:35 GMT - 04/16/2019  
German ZEW Survey April 2019



NEWS ALERT

Current Situation: +5.5 vs. +8.5 exp. vs. +11.1 prev.
Expectations: +3.1 vs. +0.5 exp. vs. -3.6 prev.





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GVI Trader john  08:34:09 GMT - 04/16/2019  
U.K. Employment Feb/Mar 2019




-- NEWS ALERT --

Claimant Count (000):+28.3 vs. +20K exp. v. +27K (r +26.7K) prev.
ILO Rate: 3.90% vs. 3.90% exp. 3.90% prev.
earnings: 3.50% vs. 3.50% exp. vs. 3.40% (r 3.50%) prev.
earnings x-bonus: +3.40% vs. 3.40% exp. vs. 3.40% (r 3.50%) prev.


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Mtl JP  18:09:08 GMT - 04/15/2019  
The Notre-Dame cathedral is burning, and apparently,

‘it feels like the end of the world’



Mtl JP  17:26:46 GMT - 04/15/2019  
Cultivating FED's independence and notions of superiar (expert" knowhow with the peasants is like growing mushrooms: feed them horsesh!t and keep 'em in the dark:

4102 words evans' "guidance" as to how and when they "should ... decide on the best framework that will help us achieve our congressionally mandated goals."

Risk Management and the Credibility of Monetary Policy



Mtl JP  15:19:23 GMT - 04/15/2019  
correction re evans:
---------------------
Monday, April 15, 2019
Speech
New York Association of Business Economists (NYABE) Economic Luncheon
1:00pm EST (12:00pm CST)


Livingston nh  13:57:57 GMT - 04/15/2019  
jp - Draghi will be free to take advantage of all the excess in EU economies -- see if a Northerner gets to sop up the liquidity


Mtl JP  13:55:37 GMT - 04/15/2019  
nh 12:57 fwiw evans will have a 2nd chance to explain himself at noon via his "Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy"


Mtl JP  13:34:13 GMT - 04/15/2019  
nh how entertaining is draghi's coming to defend jerome FED's "independence" attacking President Trump's week-end " If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and bla bla bla ... " tweet ?


Mtl JP  13:22:56 GMT - 04/15/2019  
fwiw saw an earlier headline the EU to release their retaliatory list of promised things to tariff-icate on the 17th


Mtl JP  13:19:13 GMT - 04/15/2019  
nh the FED gang has a different problem than economy this or that. free market economy always takes care of itself.

The FED's problem is to wean the financial types off cheap and accessible money.

such as .... for ex... borrow to pay ... dividends


Livingston nh  12:57:19 GMT - 04/15/2019  
jp - will the Fed draw the wrong conclusion if Q2 is much stronger than Q1?? -- will a "dovish" policy be the reason for a strong Q2? -- misjudgment is the fuel of PANIC


Mtl JP  12:53:10 GMT - 04/15/2019  
haha, to evans current economy looking better than in last Q
BUT will he bet his salary on it ?
perish the thought peasant


Mtl JP  12:34:52 GMT - 04/15/2019  
the so-what of empire manuff
- not a disaster:
just that tiny glimmer of hope
but not worth buying the dlr


GVI Trader john  12:31:44 GMT - 04/15/2019  
Empire PMI April, 2019



NEWS ALERT
10.1vs. 8.0 exp. vs. 3.70 prev.


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Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 22 Apr 2019
AA Various- Easter Monday Holiday
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 23 Apr 2019
A 1:30 AU- CPI
Wed 24 Apr 2019
A 11:00 DE- IFO Survey
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 16:00 EZ- EIA Crude
Wed 24 Apr 2019
A 11:00 DE- IFO Survey
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 16:00 EZ- EIA Crude
Thu 25 Apr 2019
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 26 Apr 2019
A 12:30 US- GDP
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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