going for a 1K drop for 'da NUZ reports this evening.
Mtl JP 17:37:47 GMT - 08/14/2019
dc CB 16:08 and players it s a matter of indifference
it will simply be a matter of circumstance
just like to single purpose minded players it is no different whether ECB is mafia or incompetent: just a market circumstance
PAR16:57:20 GMT - 08/14/2019
WallStreet wants another president.
Not at the FED but in the White House.
dc CB 16:08:44 GMT - 08/14/2019
19m19 minutes ago
Trump: the crash will be the Fed's fault
Establishment: the crash will be Trump tariffs' fault
dc CB 16:05:05 GMT - 08/14/2019
to quote George W Bush -- dubya to is buddies.
"This sucker's goin' down"
Mtl JP 13:58:16 GMT - 08/14/2019
how do you trade that ?
dc CB 13:56:51 GMT - 08/14/2019
OPEX week. aug 16
dc CB 13:55:23 GMT - 08/14/2019
Keep in mind this is an OPEX.
Livingston nh 13:52:22 GMT - 08/14/2019
SPX 2880 just broke --last week Monday's low 2820 is the target and a week ago test fail -- as always watch out for FLYING TWEETS
Mtl JP 13:20:01 GMT - 08/14/2019
rather than watch, trade
yesty DJIA close 26,279.91
looking to open over 300pts down
dc CB 12:47:33 GMT - 08/14/2019
Macy's shares are down 14% in the pre-market - the lowest since Feb 2010 - after missing Q2 expectations and cutting its full-year guidance for earnings, blaming weather, fashion, inventory and markdown issues.
Livingston nh 12:10:11 GMT - 08/14/2019
SPX didn't challenge the 40 dma so just a Turnaround Tuesday move - downward pressure on the daily chart remains -- the 21 dma is dropping thru the 40 dma which usually implies a second leg down
The duration of Yield Curve inversion is a contributor to effectiveness of signal -- the context of the economy and the direction of inflation is also an indicator // it is always an indicator of monetary policy
AT Trader john 12:04:17 GMT - 08/14/2019
Risk-off trading into NY..
10s 1.589% -9.1bp
Mtl JP 11:40:25 GMT - 08/14/2019
coz a lot depends on how the recession arbitrator moves the recession defining goal posts
AT Trader john 11:37:34 GMT - 08/14/2019
its a joke in the markets about how a yield inversion does not predict recessions well. It frequently predicts recessions that don't happen.
Mtl JP 11:32:55 GMT - 08/14/2019
what math school is "has predicted 20 of the last 8 recessions" from
maybe somewhere in australia ?
AT Trader john 11:28:35 GMT - 08/14/2019
someone asked me about my math...
"However traders say that an inverted yield curve has predicted 20 of the last 8 recessions. So take this "predictor" with a grain of salt..."
this is sarcasm because the yield inversion indicator is very unreliable...
AT Trader john 10:31:06 GMT - 08/14/2019
AT Trader john 10:28:37 GMT - 08/14/2019
if equities don't like the yield curve inversion, neither should the USD.
AT Trader john 10:27:14 GMT - 08/14/2019
spread 10-2s -0.7bps (inverted)
equity markets not liking the yield curve inversion.
AT Trader john 10:19:57 GMT - 08/14/2019
EURUSD Entry: Target: Stop:
Equities and fixed income markets continue to be inextricably linked. When stox sell off, money has to go somewhere. Usually it gets parked in government bonds. When bond PRICES RISE their YIELDS fall. In the case of the USD, lower interest rates makes the USD relatively less attractive. Thus falling U.S. equities are a positive for EURUSD. On the other hand, rising stocks are a EURUSD negative. Keep in mind this relationship does not always work, but when it does you can use it to your trading advantage.
Today the focus is on the 10-yr-2yr bond spread. It has been especially volatile today. At the moment, it is flirting with parity. When the yield on two year funds rises above the 10-yr yield, Some take this as a recessionary omen. A "normal" yield curve is upward sloping.with longer dated maturities higher than shorter maturities due to the time preference for money. However traders say that an inverted yield curve has predicted 20 of the last 8 recessions. So take this "predictor" with a grain of salt.
Once again keep an eye on stox today and make note of how U.S. stock prices are impacting forex markets, especially EURUSD, USDJPY and USDJPY.
Your trading ideas?
Mtl JP 21:02:06 GMT - 08/13/2019
u n e x p e c t e d l y those
U.S. crude supplies rose by 3.7 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 9 - report
Mtl JP 20:43:34 GMT - 08/13/2019
lots of oil around
not nuff buyer demand
dc CB 20:16:09 GMT - 08/13/2019
time for the weekly Crude game of russian roulette.
If the API chamber is empty, what-if anything is in the EIA/DOE chamber.
of Note. currently front mo price is the Sept Contract in WTI CME.
It Expires tuesday 8/20...so rolling to October is also part of the fun...maybe another loaded chamber.
15min to API
Mtl JP 19:55:05 GMT - 08/13/2019
dc CB 19:41 -- ..."fund suffers"...
thems the thorns of investing / trading in illiquid sh.t
even using mxn to hedge is a dubious and unsettled tactic
dc CB 19:54:42 GMT - 08/13/2019
what happens when the guy who knows how to do it is gone and the "jrs" take the helm.
.. today Bloomberg confirms that the record crash in Argentine assets is "wreaking "havoc on some of the largest U.S. money managers, but none more so than Hasenstab's employer, the $720 billion mutual fund, Franklin Templeton. According to Bloomberg calculations, the biggest loser was the $11.3 billion Templeton Emerging Markets Bond Fund, which fell by 3.5%, a drop that has continued on Tuesday as the selling was nowhere near done.
We are a bit below 40% chance of recession
The yield curve—specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill—is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
Estimated Recession Probabilities for Probit Model Using the Yield Curve Spread Four Quarters Ahead
Recession Probability Value of Spread
(Percent) (Percentage Points)
Note: The yield curve spread is defined as the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill.
AT Trader john 17:45:58 GMT - 08/13/2019
10s -2s 1.7bp
AT Trader john 17:30:51 GMT - 08/13/2019
Livingston nh 17:27:30 GMT - 08/13/2019
SPX 2940 capped (like last week) now we see if STOX drop waiting for next tweet -- MACD on 15 min chart rolling over (ews) // as yields fell yesterday USD got stronger --now tweety sends yields higher but KRW, AUD and SGD rally
AT Trader john 13:52:29 GMT - 08/13/2019
U.S. seen as capitulating on tariffs good for stox.
GVI Forex13:50:22 GMT - 08/13/2019
Also US to delay tariffs until Dec 15 on some items... US equities spiking higher
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:44:05 GMT - 08/13/2019
Ransquawk reporting China Vice premier Liu has spoken with US trade rep Lighthizer and TS Mnuchin and further talks (by phone) are planned in the next 2 weeks.
dc CB 13:39:53 GMT - 08/13/2019
And cue the OOOOOOOOOCHINA Algos
MOFCOM: CHINA, U.S. PLAN TO HOLD TALKS AGAIN IN NEXT 2 WEEKS
Dubai MA 13:38:53 GMT - 08/13/2019
AT Trader john 13:36:23 GMT - 08/13/2019
all the pundits waiting for an inversion.
AT Trader john 13:18:43 GMT - 08/13/2019
10s 1.639% +0.1bp
AT Trader john 11:18:46 GMT - 08/13/2019
EURUSD Entry: Target: Stop:
There is lot of media coverage about the flattening of the yield curve in the 10yr - 2-yr maturities. We have that spread at a recent low of
+5.7 bps a negative spread 2s below 10s is thought by many to be a recession signal, but it often does not work as a reliable predictor of an economic slowdown.
Nevertheless traders tend to watch the yield on the 10-yr yield as a precursor of where the USD is headed next. The EURUSD and USDJPY are often closely correlated to U.S. interest rate movements. I watch them closely but keep closely attuned to when they are working or not.
Today sees U.S. CPI data. Any thoughts?
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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