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dc CB  18:39:21 GMT - 08/14/2019  
going for a 1K drop for 'da NUZ reports this evening.


Mtl JP  17:37:47 GMT - 08/14/2019  
dc CB 16:08 and players it s a matter of indifference
it will simply be a matter of circumstance

just like to single purpose minded players it is no different whether ECB is mafia or incompetent: just a market circumstance


PAR 16:57:20 GMT - 08/14/2019  
WallStreet wants another president.

Not at the FED but in the White House.


dc CB  16:08:44 GMT - 08/14/2019  
zerohedge @zerohedge
19m19 minutes ago
Trump: the crash will be the Fed's fault
Establishment: the crash will be Trump tariffs' fault


dc CB  16:05:05 GMT - 08/14/2019  
to quote George W Bush -- dubya to is buddies.

"This sucker's goin' down"


Mtl JP  13:58:16 GMT - 08/14/2019  
how do you trade that ?


dc CB  13:56:51 GMT - 08/14/2019  
OPEX week. aug 16


dc CB  13:55:23 GMT - 08/14/2019  
Keep in mind this is an OPEX.


Livingston nh  13:52:22 GMT - 08/14/2019  
SPX 2880 just broke --last week Monday's low 2820 is the target and a week ago test fail -- as always watch out for FLYING TWEETS


Mtl JP  13:20:01 GMT - 08/14/2019  
rather than watch, trade

yesty DJIA close 26,279.91
looking to open over 300pts down


dc CB  12:47:33 GMT - 08/14/2019  
Macy's shares are down 14% in the pre-market - the lowest since Feb 2010 - after missing Q2 expectations and cutting its full-year guidance for earnings, blaming weather, fashion, inventory and markdown issues.


Livingston nh  12:10:11 GMT - 08/14/2019  
SPX didn't challenge the 40 dma so just a Turnaround Tuesday move - downward pressure on the daily chart remains -- the 21 dma is dropping thru the 40 dma which usually implies a second leg down

The duration of Yield Curve inversion is a contributor to effectiveness of signal -- the context of the economy and the direction of inflation is also an indicator // it is always an indicator of monetary policy


AT Trader john  12:04:17 GMT - 08/14/2019  
Risk-off trading into NY..

DJ -312
SP -32.5
10s 1.589% -9.1bp



Mtl JP  11:40:25 GMT - 08/14/2019  
coz a lot depends on how the recession arbitrator moves the recession defining goal posts


AT Trader john  11:37:34 GMT - 08/14/2019  
its a joke in the markets about how a yield inversion does not predict recessions well. It frequently predicts recessions that don't happen.


Mtl JP  11:32:55 GMT - 08/14/2019  
what math school is "has predicted 20 of the last 8 recessions" from
maybe somewhere in australia ?


AT Trader john  11:28:35 GMT - 08/14/2019  
someone asked me about my math...
"However traders say that an inverted yield curve has predicted 20 of the last 8 recessions. So take this "predictor" with a grain of salt..."

this is sarcasm because the yield inversion indicator is very unreliable...


AT Trader john  10:31:06 GMT - 08/14/2019  
Pre-market
DJIA -160
SP -18.2


AT Trader john  10:28:37 GMT - 08/14/2019  
if equities don't like the yield curve inversion, neither should the USD.


AT Trader john  10:27:14 GMT - 08/14/2019  
US
10s 1.628%
2s 1.634%
spread 10-2s -0.7bps (inverted)

equity markets not liking the yield curve inversion.



AT Trader john  10:19:57 GMT - 08/14/2019  

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Equities and fixed income markets continue to be inextricably linked. When stox sell off, money has to go somewhere. Usually it gets parked in government bonds. When bond PRICES RISE their YIELDS fall. In the case of the USD, lower interest rates makes the USD relatively less attractive. Thus falling U.S. equities are a positive for EURUSD. On the other hand, rising stocks are a EURUSD negative. Keep in mind this relationship does not always work, but when it does you can use it to your trading advantage.

Today the focus is on the 10-yr-2yr bond spread. It has been especially volatile today. At the moment, it is flirting with parity. When the yield on two year funds rises above the 10-yr yield, Some take this as a recessionary omen. A "normal" yield curve is upward sloping.with longer dated maturities higher than shorter maturities due to the time preference for money. However traders say that an inverted yield curve has predicted 20 of the last 8 recessions. So take this "predictor" with a grain of salt.

Once again keep an eye on stox today and make note of how U.S. stock prices are impacting forex markets, especially EURUSD, USDJPY and USDJPY.

Your trading ideas?


Mtl JP  21:02:06 GMT - 08/13/2019  
u n e x p e c t e d l y those
U.S. crude supplies rose by 3.7 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 9 - report


Mtl JP  20:43:34 GMT - 08/13/2019  
lots of oil around
not nuff buyer demand


dc CB  20:16:09 GMT - 08/13/2019  
time for the weekly Crude game of russian roulette.
If the API chamber is empty, what-if anything is in the EIA/DOE chamber.

of Note. currently front mo price is the Sept Contract in WTI CME.
It Expires tuesday 8/20...so rolling to October is also part of the fun...maybe another loaded chamber.

15min to API


Mtl JP  19:55:05 GMT - 08/13/2019  
dc CB 19:41 -- ..."fund suffers"...

thems the thorns of investing / trading in illiquid sh.t
even using mxn to hedge is a dubious and unsettled tactic


dc CB  19:54:42 GMT - 08/13/2019  
what happens when the guy who knows how to do it is gone and the "jrs" take the helm.

John Templeton



Livingston nh  19:50:35 GMT - 08/13/2019  
stretching for yield -- this will end badly


dc CB  19:47:51 GMT - 08/13/2019  
 
funny


dc CB  19:41:47 GMT - 08/13/2019  
.. today Bloomberg confirms that the record crash in Argentine assets is "wreaking "havoc on some of the largest U.S. money managers, but none more so than Hasenstab's employer, the $720 billion mutual fund, Franklin Templeton. According to Bloomberg calculations, the biggest loser was the $11.3 billion Templeton Emerging Markets Bond Fund, which fell by 3.5%, a drop that has continued on Tuesday as the selling was nowhere near done.

(en garde ... Oh, it's la?)

Fund Suffers Biggest Crash Since 2008 On Argentina Implosion



Livingston nh  18:10:20 GMT - 08/13/2019  
We are a bit below 40% chance of recession
_____
The yield curve—specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill—is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
ESTRELLA//MISHKIN 1996
____
Estimated Recession Probabilities for Probit Model Using the Yield Curve Spread Four Quarters Ahead
Recession Probability Value of Spread
(Percent) (Percentage Points)
5 1.21
10 0.76
15 0.46
20 0.22
25 0.02
30 -0.17
40 -0.50
50 -0.82
60 -1.13
70 -1.46
80 -1.85
90 -2.40

Note: The yield curve spread is defined as the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill.


AT Trader john  17:45:58 GMT - 08/13/2019  
10s -2s 1.7bp


AT Trader john  17:30:51 GMT - 08/13/2019  
DJ +399
SP +43.4
10s 1.678%
2s 1.658%

spead 2.0bp


Livingston nh  17:27:30 GMT - 08/13/2019  
SPX 2940 capped (like last week) now we see if STOX drop waiting for next tweet -- MACD on 15 min chart rolling over (ews) // as yields fell yesterday USD got stronger --now tweety sends yields higher but KRW, AUD and SGD rally


AT Trader john  13:52:29 GMT - 08/13/2019  
U.S. seen as capitulating on tariffs good for stox.


GVI Forex 13:50:22 GMT - 08/13/2019  
Also US to delay tariffs until Dec 15 on some items... US equities spiking higher


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:44:05 GMT - 08/13/2019  
Ransquawk reporting China Vice premier Liu has spoken with US trade rep Lighthizer and TS Mnuchin and further talks (by phone) are planned in the next 2 weeks.


dc CB  13:39:53 GMT - 08/13/2019  
And cue the OOOOOOOOOCHINA Algos

MOFCOM: CHINA, U.S. PLAN TO HOLD TALKS AGAIN IN NEXT 2 WEEKS


Dubai MA  13:38:53 GMT - 08/13/2019  
News??


AT Trader john  13:36:23 GMT - 08/13/2019  
10s-2s +3.3bp

all the pundits waiting for an inversion.


AT Trader john  13:18:43 GMT - 08/13/2019  
10s 1.639% +0.1bp
DJ -53
SP -8.6


AT Trader john  11:18:46 GMT - 08/13/2019  

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
There is lot of media coverage about the flattening of the yield curve in the 10yr - 2-yr maturities. We have that spread at a recent low of

+5.7 bps a negative spread 2s below 10s is thought by many to be a recession signal, but it often does not work as a reliable predictor of an economic slowdown.

Nevertheless traders tend to watch the yield on the 10-yr yield as a precursor of where the USD is headed next. The EURUSD and USDJPY are often closely correlated to U.S. interest rate movements. I watch them closely but keep closely attuned to when they are working or not.
Today sees U.S. CPI data. Any thoughts?






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