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london red  07:23:46 GMT - 10/18/2019  
cnbc: dominic grieve, one of the 21 expelled tory rebels, says he won't vote for the deal.


PAR 06:48:21 GMT - 10/18/2019  
A new European bureaucratic monster has been created.

It is just crazy complicated. It makes no sense.


nw kw  02:35:20 GMT - 10/18/2019  
cant hold brits for to long gold steamed, bet 6 am newyork time.


Mtl JP  01:48:20 GMT - 10/18/2019  
BREXIT
-------
Junker - yelling hey hey hey - and shuffling off confused
to me

looks like he has dropped a turd in his pants



PAR 14:05:36 GMT - 10/17/2019  
It is very simple. If a few Irish politicians can't approve this deal, it will be over and out. Minorities can't rule the world.

Europe further extending this Commedia dell Arte makes no sense.

Billions of European taxpayer's money has been spent in crazy nightly negotiations. It's up to the UK.

Approve this deal or leave without a deal.



Israel MacroMicro  13:24:06 GMT - 10/17/2019  
london red 13:13 GMT

trader brings three things into his trade/position:

his money
his analysis
his expectations

when the 2nd and 3rd are overvalued than the ones with more money to turn his money to less money.

does the category on this event worth 1.23-1,38 run in two weeks?

not fair actually as I am talking with a stop deep inside the money, and you?



london red  13:13:50 GMT - 10/17/2019  
not sure what liberal coolaid they are serving you in israel but there will be no double digit falls in gdp or recession in the uk in the event of a no deal. a technical recession is possible, although unlikely, given pent up demand over the last 3 years of uncertainty. much of the uk is for getting brexit done in any shape way or form. after a run up from 122 to 130 in 5 days, you cannot expect folks to hold onto longs in the face of bad news. very easy to take profits ahead of a binary outcome on saturday.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:02:54 GMT - 10/17/2019  
 
Move down clear on the 5 minute chart (falling blue lines) until same support held

The Amazing Trader



GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:01:50 GMT - 10/17/2019  
 
Look at this AT 15 minute chart and the support at 1.2850-54 that checked the downside. This is no coincidence.

The Amazing Trader



Israel MacroMicro  13:01:45 GMT - 10/17/2019  
london red 12:54 GMT

exiting without a deal means recession immediately and GDP turns negative in double figures also immediately

now attach odds to such scenario to get triggered by politicians that need to be elected.

by the way, 1.2780 longs looking good already so trading wise no loser with this trade


Israel MacroMicro  12:54:36 GMT - 10/17/2019  
GBP trading wise

long 1.2780

just because no deal is no option and extension means UK still in the EU. not a rocket science.


london red  12:54:05 GMT - 10/17/2019  
extension is bullish at 120 but not at 130. as for enough votes, its looking clear that there are not enough votes to pass this. also johnson may be able to avoid asking for an extension on a technicality in that the benn act forces him to ask for en extension if there is no deal, but if there is a deal that is rejected by parliament, he is no longer obliged to ask for an extension.


Israel MacroMicro  12:38:35 GMT - 10/17/2019  
is that actually relevant?
there are enough mega interests involved to pass the deal with votes also from the "opposition". no deal not to happen and extension means they still in the EU. so, why not buy the dips?


london red  12:22:41 GMT - 10/17/2019  
dup unhappy with 2 major parts of deal, its as simple as that. cable will probably be supported at 12710 the 200dma, u will see players late to game buying into idea of deal at that point but given saturday debate is taking the shape of this deal or its no deal, i wdont think many will want open positions thru wknd.


GVI Forex 12:20:32 GMT - 10/17/2019  
GBPUSD fell off a cliff after DUP said it will not abstain from Saturday's vote (suggesting a vote against) - still not clear whether this is a negotiating ploy, which would make sense.

In any case, more headline roulette.


Israel MacroMicro  11:53:32 GMT - 10/17/2019  
from my perspective, the most important outcome of the last 48hrs is not the details of the"deal" but the clear loud and clear message from all sides involved saying 'we are not on the road to wipe investments made, the money/assets of the whales is much stronger than any of our yakking statements'... that's what I understand from the saga


Israel MacroMicro  11:43:17 GMT - 10/17/2019  
my take about GBP and UK assets is that long term positioning exited state of hedge around 1.28 and that started 1.23-1.38-1.45-1.53 range for the coming 18-24 months. of course, this is only my own analysis


london red  11:36:05 GMT - 10/17/2019  
yes they wont vote no confidence because this is followed by a GE, but opposition are 15 pts behind and cannot win, hence they wont go for a confidence vote. corbyn will simply spout empty rhetoric in the direction of johnson and little else. as for the benn law, the eu may do johnsons dirty work for him in theory, but they would still prefer to extend ad infinitum in the hope the uk eventually changes its mind - until they leave, they always can. if they kick them out, thats no longer an option.


Livingston nh  11:28:54 GMT - 10/17/2019  
There is another wrinkle if the Deal fails in Parliament on Saturday - MPs believe the Benn Act compels the Gov't BUT like the child who kills his Parents and then pleads for Mercy as an Orphan most Courts would adjudge (especially in political matters) that Parliament created the condition from which it seeks relief so PM may just ignore the Benn Act - of course, Parliament would in normal times likely vote No Confidence but that has been ruled out by the current batch


london red  11:14:11 GMT - 10/17/2019  
cable now seen its high this side of a passed deal. you are going to have further comments on the deal from all sides and while cable will be supported lower down given a draft has been done, it will not break its recent high unless a deal is passed or looks like passing, which, at this stage, it doesnt. also now that you have got a draft, mkt players will need to hedge option sales by selling sterling, another reason it will now find it difficult to sustain further gains.


GVI Forex 11:12:41 GMT - 10/17/2019  
More headline roulette.

DUP party officials say they will not be voting for the Brexit deal - is this a negotiating ploy but does restore a two-way risk?


Livingston nh  11:08:16 GMT - 10/17/2019  
There's a tweek in the GFA in the 4 yr review by NI (simple majority not community consent) - another layer of bureaucracy in a Joint Committee to assess risk/nature of goods imported to NI that can move to Ireland - EU VAT applies in NI

We'll see how this flies - hmm


Israel MacroMicro  11:00:32 GMT - 10/17/2019  
totally agree!
good luck


AT Trader john  10:54:29 GMT - 10/17/2019  
Suggests to me that a lot more volatility is in store.


Mtl JP  10:54:17 GMT - 10/17/2019  
from an entertainment point of view
the brits have a unique talent
now the brexit mud headlines likely to beat anything
from Yes Prime Minister
-
week-end Parliament session vote = high risk holding GBP in either direction (like russian roulette)


Mtl JP  10:45:27 GMT - 10/17/2019  
important points ... indeed
relating to trading potential to make / drop a bag of pips


AT Trader john  10:39:07 GMT - 10/17/2019  
JP- You make important points. Any deal has to be approved by the EU and Parliament. Its premature at this point to be popping the Champagne corks a this time even though this is a major accomplishment. Everybody who has a decisive vote in this deal will be demanding their pound of flesh.


Mtl JP  10:14:31 GMT - 10/17/2019  
current brexit is just a political deal
there is nothing technical about it yet
made-in-brussels has yet to be put to UK politicos for a vote
likely on the week-end in a special session


Sydney ACC  10:07:40 GMT - 10/17/2019  
After hitting a high of 1.2992 cable back to 1.2907 and briefly recorded a price below 1.2900.

AUD/USD biggest winner so far up !% on this morning's opening.


london red  10:01:10 GMT - 10/17/2019  
deal will not pass as dup still not supportive. Erg support rests on dup.


Sydney ACC  09:52:37 GMT - 10/17/2019  
Its got to get through parliament yet.


Kl Fs  09:50:03 GMT - 10/17/2019  
Very close to 1.30. Brexit done so easily? I thought it would be more complicated than that. So 1.45-1.50 all the way


GVI Forex 09:33:05 GMT - 10/17/2019  
News report Brexit deal done GBP spiked higher


Livingston nh  18:46:33 GMT - 10/16/2019  
The ultimate irony if this exercise gets back into the House of Commons may be former PM May voting against new PM's WA because of his concessions on the Irish border issue using the exact speech of Boris condemning the same






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