It is very simple. If a few Irish politicians can't approve this deal, it will be over and out. Minorities can't rule the world.
Europe further extending this Commedia dell Arte makes no sense.
Billions of European taxpayer's money has been spent in crazy nightly negotiations. It's up to the UK.
Approve this deal or leave without a deal.
Israel MacroMicro 13:24:06 GMT - 10/17/2019
london red 13:13 GMT
trader brings three things into his trade/position:
when the 2nd and 3rd are overvalued than the ones with more money to turn his money to less money.
does the category on this event worth 1.23-1,38 run in two weeks?
not fair actually as I am talking with a stop deep inside the money, and you?
london red 13:13:50 GMT - 10/17/2019
not sure what liberal coolaid they are serving you in israel but there will be no double digit falls in gdp or recession in the uk in the event of a no deal. a technical recession is possible, although unlikely, given pent up demand over the last 3 years of uncertainty. much of the uk is for getting brexit done in any shape way or form. after a run up from 122 to 130 in 5 days, you cannot expect folks to hold onto longs in the face of bad news. very easy to take profits ahead of a binary outcome on saturday.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:02:54 GMT - 10/17/2019
Move down clear on the 5 minute chart (falling blue lines) until same support held
exiting without a deal means recession immediately and GDP turns negative in double figures also immediately
now attach odds to such scenario to get triggered by politicians that need to be elected.
by the way, 1.2780 longs looking good already so trading wise no loser with this trade
Israel MacroMicro 12:54:36 GMT - 10/17/2019
GBP trading wise
just because no deal is no option and extension means UK still in the EU. not a rocket science.
london red 12:54:05 GMT - 10/17/2019
extension is bullish at 120 but not at 130. as for enough votes, its looking clear that there are not enough votes to pass this. also johnson may be able to avoid asking for an extension on a technicality in that the benn act forces him to ask for en extension if there is no deal, but if there is a deal that is rejected by parliament, he is no longer obliged to ask for an extension.
Israel MacroMicro 12:38:35 GMT - 10/17/2019
is that actually relevant?
there are enough mega interests involved to pass the deal with votes also from the "opposition". no deal not to happen and extension means they still in the EU. so, why not buy the dips?
london red 12:22:41 GMT - 10/17/2019
dup unhappy with 2 major parts of deal, its as simple as that. cable will probably be supported at 12710 the 200dma, u will see players late to game buying into idea of deal at that point but given saturday debate is taking the shape of this deal or its no deal, i wdont think many will want open positions thru wknd.
GVI Forex12:20:32 GMT - 10/17/2019
GBPUSD fell off a cliff after DUP said it will not abstain from Saturday's vote (suggesting a vote against) - still not clear whether this is a negotiating ploy, which would make sense.
In any case, more headline roulette.
Israel MacroMicro 11:53:32 GMT - 10/17/2019
from my perspective, the most important outcome of the last 48hrs is not the details of the"deal" but the clear loud and clear message from all sides involved saying 'we are not on the road to wipe investments made, the money/assets of the whales is much stronger than any of our yakking statements'... that's what I understand from the saga
Israel MacroMicro 11:43:17 GMT - 10/17/2019
my take about GBP and UK assets is that long term positioning exited state of hedge around 1.28 and that started 1.23-1.38-1.45-1.53 range for the coming 18-24 months. of course, this is only my own analysis
london red 11:36:05 GMT - 10/17/2019
yes they wont vote no confidence because this is followed by a GE, but opposition are 15 pts behind and cannot win, hence they wont go for a confidence vote. corbyn will simply spout empty rhetoric in the direction of johnson and little else. as for the benn law, the eu may do johnsons dirty work for him in theory, but they would still prefer to extend ad infinitum in the hope the uk eventually changes its mind - until they leave, they always can. if they kick them out, thats no longer an option.
Livingston nh 11:28:54 GMT - 10/17/2019
There is another wrinkle if the Deal fails in Parliament on Saturday - MPs believe the Benn Act compels the Gov't BUT like the child who kills his Parents and then pleads for Mercy as an Orphan most Courts would adjudge (especially in political matters) that Parliament created the condition from which it seeks relief so PM may just ignore the Benn Act - of course, Parliament would in normal times likely vote No Confidence but that has been ruled out by the current batch
london red 11:14:11 GMT - 10/17/2019
cable now seen its high this side of a passed deal. you are going to have further comments on the deal from all sides and while cable will be supported lower down given a draft has been done, it will not break its recent high unless a deal is passed or looks like passing, which, at this stage, it doesnt. also now that you have got a draft, mkt players will need to hedge option sales by selling sterling, another reason it will now find it difficult to sustain further gains.
GVI Forex11:12:41 GMT - 10/17/2019
More headline roulette.
DUP party officials say they will not be voting for the Brexit deal - is this a negotiating ploy but does restore a two-way risk?
Livingston nh 11:08:16 GMT - 10/17/2019
There's a tweek in the GFA in the 4 yr review by NI (simple majority not community consent) - another layer of bureaucracy in a Joint Committee to assess risk/nature of goods imported to NI that can move to Ireland - EU VAT applies in NI
We'll see how this flies - hmm
Israel MacroMicro 11:00:32 GMT - 10/17/2019
AT Trader john 10:54:29 GMT - 10/17/2019
Suggests to me that a lot more volatility is in store.
Mtl JP 10:54:17 GMT - 10/17/2019
from an entertainment point of view
the brits have a unique talent
now the brexit mud headlines likely to beat anything
from Yes Prime Minister
week-end Parliament session vote = high risk holding GBP in either direction (like russian roulette)
Mtl JP 10:45:27 GMT - 10/17/2019
important points ... indeed
relating to trading potential to make / drop a bag of pips
AT Trader john 10:39:07 GMT - 10/17/2019
JP- You make important points. Any deal has to be approved by the EU and Parliament. Its premature at this point to be popping the Champagne corks a this time even though this is a major accomplishment. Everybody who has a decisive vote in this deal will be demanding their pound of flesh.
Mtl JP 10:14:31 GMT - 10/17/2019
current brexit is just a political deal
there is nothing technical about it yet
made-in-brussels has yet to be put to UK politicos for a vote
likely on the week-end in a special session
Sydney ACC 10:07:40 GMT - 10/17/2019
After hitting a high of 1.2992 cable back to 1.2907 and briefly recorded a price below 1.2900.
AUD/USD biggest winner so far up !% on this morning's opening.
london red 10:01:10 GMT - 10/17/2019
deal will not pass as dup still not supportive. Erg support rests on dup.
Sydney ACC 09:52:37 GMT - 10/17/2019
Its got to get through parliament yet.
Kl Fs 09:50:03 GMT - 10/17/2019
Very close to 1.30. Brexit done so easily? I thought it would be more complicated than that. So 1.45-1.50 all the way
GVI Forex09:33:05 GMT - 10/17/2019
News report Brexit deal done — GBP spiked higher
Livingston nh 18:46:33 GMT - 10/16/2019
The ultimate irony if this exercise gets back into the House of Commons may be former PM May voting against new PM's WA because of his concessions on the Irish border issue using the exact speech of Boris condemning the same
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