FWIW -- Current Odds on a Fed rate cut of 25bp on Oct 30 82.5%. I understand today is the final day before the "Quiet Period", so if the Fed wants to influence market perceptions about the meeting, today is the final day.
Livingston nh 11:42:27 GMT - 10/18/2019
SAMPLE Labor MP - "I’m still undecided whether to support the deal, which in many ways is less attractive than Theresa May’s deal, but I have to think of the counterfactual, which is dangerous and risky.” Guardian
AND after everybody shows their hand to approve the WA bill comes back for a Second Reading (aka VOTE) and things can change
TICK TICK TICK
AT Trader11:36:44 GMT - 10/18/2019
Unusual that there is no key U.S. data due today. Market is buying EURGBP at the moment, but convictions do not appear to be strong..
Livingston nh 11:27:22 GMT - 10/18/2019
MPs of both major parties have the Panic factor weighing on them to vote for this DEAL - consider what if they vote against and NO DEAL occurs to the DETRIMENT of all -- they get the Donkey Tail in the election // this is probably as good as it gets BUT some will doggedly rely on confirmatory vote for the hoi polloi ( a no-win position) -- still too many factions
PM probably goes to Court to prevent Benn Act application so another delay next week - and some in EU think enuff is enuff with NEW characters taking their Seats on NOV 1
AT Trader11:16:04 GMT - 10/18/2019
Getting only pieces, but it appears to me that PM Johnson has been getting increasing support over the day. I gather he still needs 34 votes for his plan to pass in Parliament tomorrow. Keep an eye on the GBP if he gets closer.
AT Trader09:29:02 GMT - 10/18/2019
2-yr 1.604% +0.4 bp
Spread 10s-2s +16.0 bp (+15.7 bp)
US: 1.764% +0.9
DE: -0.387% +1.6
UK: 0.718% +0.4
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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