stupid Iran opened mouth too early, they havent learnt the art of negotiation
Minneapolis DRS2 11:04:25 GMT - 01/11/2020
Up to this point, the "standard response" for Iran would have been to blow something up like a passenger airplane, and then blame the US for "stirring up trouble". It is a model that works quite well when the US president is a Democrat...particularly one like Obama, who had Iran-friendly staff in his cabinet (Valerie Jarrett). The US would take the blame for Iran's actions, offer some kind of payment, and Iran would look like the good guys to the world.
Now that Donald Trump is president, the standard response no longer works. The US under Trump killed Soleimani. Don't go blowing up some other country's people and their stuff, and expect that the blowback will hit the US. Trump ain't Obama, his people aren't a bunch of Valerie Jarretts, and the US ain't responsible for the Ukraine plane. That's on Iran.
haifa ac 10:25:45 GMT - 01/11/2020
"What if one of those missiles destroyed the Ukrainian plane with 180 aboard. All dead. Iran rushed to declare mechanical failure (it was a 737) before any evidence from the ground. Who knows?!"
So far Ukraine is asking reparations.
The important issue today is the widening perception in the world of the answer to the question:
"How can you tell if an Iranian is lying?"
"He opens his mouth!"
dc CB 16:25:22 GMT - 01/09/2020
IRANIAN MISSILE SYSTEM SHOT DOWN UKRAINE FLIGHT, PROBABLY BY MISTAKE, SOURCES SAY
how many Canadians on that flight???
Justin Justin???? anyone home
haifa ac 16:23:56 GMT - 01/09/2020
It WAS a Missile1
Verified account @AmichaiStein1
#BREAKING: Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system - 2 Pentagon officials and an Iraqi intelligence official told @Newsweek
Mtl JP 22:47:38 GMT - 01/08/2020
FBI, Homeland Security warn of Iranian terror and cyber threat in new intelligence bulletin - CNN.com
dc CB 21:35:40 GMT - 01/08/2020
algos saw the headlines and sold.
I think there will be more of these 'spooks'
Attacks may not come from the Iranian Military per se. but there are plenty of other groups, many set-up by Sol the Magnificent. He's be working on this since 1998.
Mtl JP 21:11:48 GMT - 01/08/2020
CB 20:56 ya think that is what spookied the nervous flighty momos ? If so shows how "on the margin" (vulnerable) the market is.
Mtl JP 20:57:35 GMT - 01/08/2020
now that Gold closed the gap
dc CB 20:56:55 GMT - 01/08/2020
*SEVERAL ROCKETS HIT GREEN ZONE IN BAGHDAD: SKY REPORTS
Mtl JP 20:55:09 GMT - 01/08/2020
stocks taking a hit into the close
does not look profit-taking inspired to me
Mtl JP 20:44:52 GMT - 01/08/2020
john 17:02 It all seems almost scripted, a somewhat harsher version of laurel n hardy slapstick style diplomacy
dc CB 18:44:47 GMT - 01/08/2020
After a poorly accepted 3Y auction to start the new decade's issuance of coupon paper, moments ago the US Treasury sold $24BN in 10Y notes (CUSIP YS3) which was a tailing clunker which priced at a high yield of 1.869%, the highest since July 2019, up from December's 1.842%, and tailing the When Issued 1.853% by 1.6bps
CB 17:17 ADP came in 22.5% above estimate
ADP usually (statistically) comes under NFP
haifa ac 17:21:10 GMT - 01/08/2020
That is pretty good:
" For you granted him authority over all people that he might give eternal life to all those you have given him."
dc CB 17:17:50 GMT - 01/08/2020
24bln in 10s for sale by the Treas this hour.
1:30 - 2PM Todays 2nd POMO (there was a small one this morning) 7.5Bln is Bills will be bought back by the DESK.
Wonder which of the most recently auctioned issues will be offered for sale by the Primary Dealer.
And yes this is NOT QE -- it's in-your-face Monetization by the FRBNY Operations Desk. IMHO
Also this scheduled series of POMOs ends on Jan 13. The FED's NY Desk will be issuing another schedule soon. I think they'll wait until after the UnEmployment Numbers ... and if true to form, issue the sched around 5PM ET.
Israel MacroMicro 17:07:10 GMT - 01/08/2020
AT Trader john 17:02:30 GMT - 01/08/2020
In essence, by intentionally missing U.S. personnel in Iraq, Iran has blinked. Now Trump has allowed this episode to go. Unless Iran acts against the U.S. again, imho this entire episode is over.
Note the 10yr note is now 1.860% +3.5bp. this is close to neutrality. The S&P 500 is back in record high territory.
Mtl JP 14:41:40 GMT - 01/08/2020
President Trump to yak at 11a.m.
AT Trader14:20:15 GMT - 01/08/2020
2-yr 1.538% -0.1 bp
Spread 10s-2s +28.3 (+27.9 bp)
US: 1.821% -0.5
UK: 0.796% +0.2
DE: -0.272% +0.1
Wed 8 Jan 2019 A 13:15 US- ADP Payrolls A 16:00 US- EIA Crude Thu 9 Jan 2019 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 10 Jan 2019 A 13:30 US/CA- Employment
haifa ac 08:48:42 GMT - 01/08/2020
Verified account @AmichaiStein1
14m14 minutes ago
Amichai Stein Retweeted Amichai Stein
#BREAKING: Ukraine president says instructed prosecutor general to open criminal proceedings over iran air crash
haifa ac 07:19:48 GMT - 01/08/2020
" So far, so good!"
What if one of those missiles destroyed the Ukrainian plane with 180 aboard. All dead. Iran rushed to declare mechanical failure (it was a 737) before any evidence from the ground. Who knows?!
Mtl JP 05:32:02 GMT - 01/08/2020
Donald J. Trump
All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.
Mtl JP 02:12:56 GMT - 01/08/2020
stocks uP from their earlier bottom
usdjpy back N of 108
looks like iran got its retaliation jollies, trump likely to let it pass (afterall he is a genius - even if only self-proclaimed)
everybody can claim their own sort of victory
too bad for those triggered sls
Mtl JP 00:41:54 GMT - 01/08/2020
just slow moves
dlryen now sub 108 at 107.68
Mtl JP 00:39:19 GMT - 01/08/2020
not so tame reaction afterall
US stocks: -375 -1.31%
GOLD uP ~2.5% N of 1600
Minneapolis DRS2 23:55:34 GMT - 01/07/2020
Heh...follow your own advice!
"alternately ignore what u do not like"
Mtl JP 23:53:22 GMT - 01/07/2020
DRS2 23:46 feel free to start a thread with your own BS
c if it gets traction
Mtl JP 23:50:52 GMT - 01/07/2020
from the one Trump friendly - if there is one - trumpet :
..."The source told Fox News' Jennifer Griffin: "Under missile attack from Iran. These are either cruise missiles or short-range ballistic missiles. All over the country." The missiles struck near Al Assad Air Base in Anbar, among other locations. There was no immediate word on injuries or damage.
Meantime, Iran state TV claimed Tehran launched "tens" of surface-to-surface missiles at Iraq's Ain Assad air base housing U.S. troops"...
Minneapolis DRS2 23:46:43 GMT - 01/07/2020
Instead of all this political talk about flags and stuff, why not focus on trading-related stuff? Like, for instance, the viability of GM on the world market.
Clearly, Iran believes in GM products. (See second picture.)
"Baseball, Hot Dogs, Apple Pie and Chevrolet!" Heh.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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