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Mtl JP  19:20:08 GMT - 01/18/2020  
MacroMicro 08:51 and u call me brute ? haha
or is that some version on m/eastern expression of affection / love ?

I dont dare say respect

Andorra la Vella 12:34:46 GMT - 01/18/2020  
Sorry. I don't catch it.

Israel  MacroMicro  08:51:15 GMT - 01/18/2020  
CB - your reply is not in context of my post, too much ZeroHedge I assume. hehehe

must be you CB

dc CB  23:05:05 GMT - 01/17/2020  
the COLA increase for Social Security monthly payments for 2020 is 1.6%. The increase began with the Jan checks/electronic transfers.

dc CB  22:18:16 GMT - 01/17/2020  
Israel MacroMicro 21:31
something serious to think about in regards of CPI data, officially health insurance went 20.4% up during 2019. official government data.
now, something is extremely cooked and definitely not the tasty way.

You snagged the Homer Simpson "D'OH" award --- late on a Fri before a 3 day weekend.

The Main Purpose of the CPI is to set the COL(Cost Of Living) increases Y-Y for Social Security monthly payments for the following year. The Unfunded US Gov Pension Fund that pays out to every US citizen past the age of 65/66.
All these people are on Medicare -- as soon as you claim your are "retired" a start collecting benefits you no longer pay for private health insurance.

That is the Only role for the CPI Statistic.

Mtl JP  22:00:03 GMT - 01/17/2020  
EURO 1.1089 Fr Close

yupee .. garlic worked

Israel  MacroMicro  21:31:39 GMT - 01/17/2020  
something serious to think about in regards of CPI data, officially health insurance went 20.4% up during 2019. official government data.

now, something is extremely cooked and definitely not the tasty way. this hoax with US statistics is about to burst the ugly way. I assume GOLD and/or YIELDS to have their say sooner than later.

have a great weekend

Mtl JP  21:05:59 GMT - 01/17/2020  
MacroMicro 20:41
- ref yellow line in my 13:34 and 18:29

I am keeping garlic on my keyboard
trying to ward off playful yet evil NJubbs

(euro 1.1092 atm)

Israel  MacroMicro  20:53:13 GMT - 01/17/2020  
The GBP/USD has been pivoting around the 1.30 area since mid-October and technical charts suggest that it could be fast approaching a break-out according to analysts at Rabobank.

Key Quotes:
“Price action implies that GBP/USD is in a consolidation period. Movement in both directions is contained by two tradelines forming a triangle. The ongoing convergence of those trendlines can be compared to squeezing a spring until we cannot hold it any longer and the compressed energy is released. Neutral momentum indicators (the RSI is almost in the middle of the 30 and 70 range) resemble calm before storm. Essentially, GBP/USD may produce potentially explosive move in the coming weeks - perhaps at the end of January/early February.”

“Given that the symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern, the odds are skewed in favour of GBP/USD breaking higher towards the December high at 1.3514. Conversely, a break below the trendline support currently at 1.2988 would be a bearish signal for cable and would favour retracement towards the November low at 1.2769.”

“Looking from a very wide perspective, it is worth pointing out that GBP/USD has been in a downside trend since 2008, as the monthly chart illustrates. Cable would have to rally well above the 1.40-1.44 area to adopt a long-term constructive view. If the UK leaves the EU without any trade agreements at the end of 2020, GBP/USD is likely to revisit the support area around 1.22.”

“It is our view that the BoE is likely to cut rates twice this year. This supports our central view that GBP/USD is likely to be trading below the 1.30 level on both a 3 and 6 month view. Our forecast that cable will end the year higher assumes the EU/UK future arrangement talks make progress by the end of 2020. Technicals, however, paint a contrasting picture.”

Israel  MacroMicro  20:41:54 GMT - 01/17/2020  
oh ja
no survey to take so you agree to share the bonanza making idea?

Mtl JP  19:31:26 GMT - 01/17/2020  
MacroMicro u r asking for an AI EA that re-calculates the past in order to identify the future (aka crystal ball)

I have one but it is sooooo propritary that it shows its calculation to me alone - like an enigma

Israel  MacroMicro  19:12:55 GMT - 01/17/2020  
the coming long weekend, what would be profitable afterwards when carried into the weekend?

Mtl JP  18:29:46 GMT - 01/17/2020  
EURO 1.1093
close around 1.1102 will be interesting
see if Nigel Jubbs has something to say about it in the meantime

Mtl JP  16:03:56 GMT - 01/17/2020  
EURO 1.1092
fwiw the numerical value in my 13:34 pic is 1.1102
yours may be slightly different

Mtl JP  15:53:18 GMT - 01/17/2020  
some folks claim to run two distinct accounts
as a hedge against losses / wipeout

dc CB  15:48:30 GMT - 01/17/2020  
they have been saying that since it started. All thru Oct, Nov, in Dec they said just thru the end of the year. Now it's just thru April 15 - aka Tax Day.
IMO - it will go will not end until at least Nov. then depending on how the country responds to the results... thru the end of 2020 and the "Turn" (I thot that was a good moniker).

also IMO, the dirty little secret is that most of it's going to prop up the european DB.
I agree with Zeus, parity is on the way, but you can go broke betting on the timing with a leveraged Forex acct.

Mtl JP  15:40:17 GMT - 01/17/2020  
CB 14:09 according to this morning yaks from harker, fed's repo medling is temporary

Mtl JP  15:31:17 GMT - 01/17/2020  
GBP 1.3020
Bingo !

Mtl JP  14:57:07 GMT - 01/17/2020  
lets see it can take out 1.3020

Mtl JP  14:55:53 GMT - 01/17/2020  
here goes the GBP ying-yang/ing the 50day again

Mtl JP  14:36:58 GMT - 01/17/2020  
euro's down current obstacle at 50 day


dc CB  14:16:12 GMT - 01/17/2020  
fwiw. for the second day the Treas market is being Sold on the Cash Open -- 8:20ET

dc CB  14:09:22 GMT - 01/17/2020  
Today's REPO
1 day, tho it is actually a 4 day since it comes due on Tues $52.63Bln

Also Missed by GVI---Treas will issue a 20Y bond


Mtl JP  13:45:36 GMT - 01/17/2020  
GBP 1.3050
back above 50day 1.3034 S
another S at 1.3020

Mtl JP  13:34:06 GMT - 01/17/2020  
EURO 1.1105
conditional "I predict"

Mtl JP  13:24:33 GMT - 01/17/2020  
looking at DLRX , heading into NY session USD has a slightly firmer tone.

GV Calendar -> MONDAY -> 20/01/20 0:00 US Holiday

Mtl JP  13:13:34 GMT - 01/17/2020  
Issued on: January 16, 2020
"Today, President Donald J. Trump announced his intent to nominate the following individuals to key positions in his Administration:

Judy Shelton of Virginia, to be a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for the remainder of a 14-year term expiring January 31, 2024."


Mtl JP  11:15:40 GMT - 01/17/2020  
... if I ran the BOE ...
like a country fire department: arriving to save the basement
what is the point .. highlighting embarassement of PhD'd meddlers

AT Trader john  11:12:44 GMT - 01/17/2020  
red- UGE = Huge? I changed your 11:04 GMT post. Hope that was ok?

AT Trader john  11:08:00 GMT - 01/17/2020  
After the shocking UK retail sales data today, if I ran the BOE I would cut rates immediately. What is gained by waiting two weeks? Just get it done and move on... There is no reason to manage monetary policy on a rigid arbitrary schedule determined years ago. Preemptive cut possible?

london red  11:04:31 GMT - 01/17/2020  
Huge 85 cent expiry today no doubt influenced play this week

AT Trader 10:59:41 GMT - 01/17/2020  
DJ: +67
SP: +8.0

2-yr 1.557% -1.1
Spread 10s-2s +27.1.7 (+23.7 bp)
US: 1.828% +1.9
UK: 0.638% -0.7
DE: -0.220% -0.7

Spot Rate (Pivot Point)
EURUSD 1.1120 (1.1145)
GBPUSD 1.3052 (1.3059)
EURGBP 0.8520 (0.8530)
USDJPY 110.12 (100.06)

this week 1.1105-1.1173 (45) pips

fri: 1.1119-1.1143 (24)
thu: 1.1128-1.1173 (45)
wed: 1.1119-1.1164 (45)
tue: 1.1105-1.1145 (40)
mon: 1.1113-1.1147 (34)

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20-day avg: 1.1135
50-day avg: 1.1092
100-day avg: 1.1065
200-day avg: 1.1136

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

AT Trader john  10:30:06 GMT - 01/17/2020  
For once it is pretty clear UK retail sales data did NOT leak. IMO a BOE rate cut on 30 Jan is now close to a sure bet. There has been an apparent large buyer of GBP vs the EUR and other currencies most of the week. No idea if he/she appears again today. GBP buyers ahead of an expected STRONG retail sales report have been reducing their longs in the wake of the data. Fridays can be like that.

AT Trader 09:48:28 GMT - 01/17/2020  
U.K. Retail Sales December 2019


x-fuel & autos
mm: -0.80% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. -0.60% (r ) prev.
mm: -0.60% v +0.50% exp. vs. -0.60% (r ) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales

AT Trader john  09:18:06 GMT - 01/17/2020  

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 17 Jan 2019
A 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 13:30 US- House Starts/Permits
A 14:15 US- Industrial Production
A 15:00 US- JOLTS
AA 15:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan

AT Trader 21:03:53 GMT - 01/16/2020  
LATE Thursday
DJ: +269
SP: +27.7

2-yr 1.576% +1.4
Spread 10s-2s +23.7 (+22.9 bp)
US: 1.813% +2.5
UK: 0.648% +0.2
DE: -0.215% -0.1

Spot Rate (Pivot Point)
EURUSD 1.1134 (1.1145)
GBPUSD 1.3066 (1.3059)
EURGBP 0.8520 (0.8530)
USDJPY 100.12 (100.06)

this week 1.1105-1.1173 (45) pips

thu: 1.1128-1.1173 (45)
wed: 1.1119-1.1164 (45)
tue: 1.1105-1.1145 (40)
mon: 1.1113-1.1147 (34)
fri: 1.1086-1.1130 (44)

Sign up now for your invaluable report

How To Turn Your Forex Trading Into A Business

20-day avg: 1.1135
50-day avg: 1.1092
100-day avg: 1.1065
200-day avg: 1.1136

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

AT Trader 20:58:15 GMT - 01/16/2020  

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Fri 17 Jan 2019
A 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 13:30 US- House Starts/Permits
A 14:15 US- Industrial Production
A 15:00 US- JOLTS
AA 15:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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