dc CB 03:31 - DAVID DAYEN = greta II
365 words ... haha -- “prophets of doom”
what IF it is a stock-pickers environment instead ?
Minneapolis DRS2 03:51:47 GMT - 02/15/2020
The virus outbreak is a tragedy for China, but economically speaking it only continues a trend that started before the outbreak started...the moving of critical supply lines out of mainland China. The geopolitical bet by Nixon and Kissinger (remember him?) was that in return for access to the US market, China would open their markets to the world and adopt democratic governing principles for its people.
It didn't happen. China maintained its ways of authoritarianism and corruption, and started broadcasting its dreams of eventually running the world.
In a roundabout, stumbling way, Trump is putting an end to it all. He doesn't have Ronald Reagan's oratory skill ("Tear down this wall!"), but his ways are proving effective just the same.
The world will survive, and even prosper. The Chinese people may even come out of this all right. Xi Jinping's fate as leader is not so clear, nor is the fate of the CCP..."mandate of heaven" and all that.
dc CB 03:31:45 GMT - 02/15/2020
if you’ve been following the business press, this has been the only story in town for the past couple weeks, as everyone tries to game out whether the epidemic is a “black swan” event that could radically change economic fortunes, or just an opportunity to buy the dip. Even the normally prudent Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell highlighted Tuesday at a Congressional hearing that the Fed was “closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.”
The way this could spill over is simple, and terrifying: A substantial amount of what the world produces originates in or is reliant on China. The nation’s presence as a major market, a manufacturing hub, and a source of materials and components can make any shock of this magnitude catastrophic. For decades, world leaders have allowed multinationals to chase lower labor costs, thereby centralizing production and fixing supply lines. We’re now seeing the tragic fragility associated with that decision.
Perhaps the biggest concern is over medical supplies. China produces and exports a large amount of pharmaceuticals to the U.S., including 97 percent of all antibiotics and 80 percent of the active ingredients used to make drugs here. Penicillin, ibuprofen, and aspirin largely come from China. Last month, the medical supply firm Cardinal Health recalled 2.9 million surgical gowns “cross contaminated” at a plant in China; the blood pressure drug valsartan also saw shortages recently, thanks to tainted active ingredients at one Chinese plant. The combination of supply chain disruptions and increased demand at hospitals if coronavirus spreads to the U.S. could prove devastating.
In a dark irony, most of the world’s face masks—now ubiquitous in China as a precaution—are made in China and Taiwan, and even for those made elsewhere, some component parts are Chinese-sourced. Shortages have led China to declare the masks a “strategic resource,” reserving them for medical workers. U.S. hospitals are “critically low” on respiratory masks, according to medical-supply middlemen. Lack of protective gear could increase vulnerability to the virus, and the one place on earth suffering from production shutdowns is the one place where most of the protective gear originates.
“We wanted to let you know that we have had a confirmed case of coronavirus from a patient who self-presented at the A&E department of University hospital Lewisham (UHL) last Sunday (9 February).
Hospital personnel were concerned when they became aware that a coronavirus carrier had been on the premises. However, Travis emphasised that members of the public were not put at risk because she was taken to be tested by a route that avoided patients.
The Uber driver has little chance of contracting the infection because he was not with the woman long enough, Public Health England said. “As the journey was less than 15 minutes the driver did not have close sustained contact with the individual and is not considered high risk,” said Dr Rachel Thorn Heathcock, a PHE consultant.
Here is a story from the AppleInsider website. It promises what appear to be good trading opportunities if you understand the industry implications of what they are saying:
"As Apple deals with interruption of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, its Android competitors face all the same issues. Except that they make far less money and operate on much thinner margins across fragile shipment volumes. They were also hoping for a leg up on Apple provided by early support for 5G and new folding screen form factors, both of which are complicated by production interruptions related to factory closures and delayed promotion due to canceled industry events."
It would be nice if a future China government adopted a more open policy of reporting public health incidents. This business of concealing the true numbers will only provide temporary respite for the CCP. The real story is known...not just to the rest of the world, but to the Chinese citizenry as well.
GVI Forex15:04:05 GMT - 02/13/2020
FBN's Lawrence says Admin sources believe China is under reporting the number of coronavirus cases by at least 100K in China. Sources add the administration believes China is "severely" under reporting the number of deaths from the virus.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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