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london red  15:17:24 GMT - 02/28/2020  
s&p holding on to 50% retracement. while holding chance of opening gap fill rally to 2978


AT Trader john  15:07:45 GMT - 02/28/2020  
University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final February, 2020



ALERT
114.8 vs. 100.6 exp. vs. 100.9 preliminary

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment




AT Trader john  14:54:30 GMT - 02/28/2020  
Chicago PMI February 2019



NEWS ALERT
49.0 vs. 45.3 exp. vs. 42.9 prev.




AT Trader john  13:36:54 GMT - 02/28/2020  
U.S. data generally positive. but markets are trading on Stocks....


AT Trader john  13:33:19 GMT - 02/28/2020  
U.S. Personal Income, Spending, PCE Deflator January, 2020



ALERT
Personal Income +0.60% vs. +0.30% exp v 0.20% (r +1.50% prev.)
Personal Spending +0.10% vs. +0.30% exp v +0.30% () prev.
Core PCE Defl +1.60% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +1.60% (r 1.50% )prev.



HK Kevin  16:55:30 GMT - 02/27/2020  
HK Kevin 15:51 GMT February 21, 2020
BREAKING NEWS: Reply
swiss frank 15:35, thanks.
Any view on eur/chf for mid term trade?
Look attractive to go long at current level with 50 pips stop for position trade
------------------------------------------------------------------
My EUR/CHF long from 1.06 looks safe now. S/L at breakeven, t/p 1.0720.
Also enter short EUR/GBP at 0.8535 earlier today.


Israel  MacroMicro  18:19:21 GMT - 02/21/2020  
sovereign debt crisis, for those who need "educated people" words as reasoning to take simple trades/positions.

$3 trillions to look for yield in new rounds this year. expect the unexpected interesting times :)

bye

p.s. : respect to the few guys with valuable insight they share and they are doing that without dick waving about few pips gained in a trade. you are one of those JP :)


Israel  MacroMicro  18:09:56 GMT - 02/21/2020  
I am expecting wild pullback with gold some when during the coming 3 weeks even if virus panic gets much higher.

DXY: I do expect March to bring a close above 100.10 and exceptional strong USD wave for few months.

meanwhile, don't forget to book little pips to protect from expected unexpected moves :)

have a nice weekend, especially in virus panic areas.


Jkt Abel  16:56:01 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Red, euro has done correction you reckon? It stays below 10863, spot on! Now sell big for a trip to 1.04?


HK Kevin  16:45:20 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Thanks Frank, have a nice weekend in scenic Switzerland. For me in Hong Kong, most important of all is to stay alive amidst the corna virus and enjoy working at home.


swiss  frank  16:11:23 GMT - 02/21/2020  
My view for the year is that its going to be a crazy one. Lots of stuff going on in the background in never ending supply. The economic backdrops of some regions doing worse than others I see as a constant tho. With that, besides occasional blips and wobbles the trends in currencies should see continuation. I think it will be hard, but worthwhile in the end to stay in trend trades. This of course is for me as I'm sure others have other trading styles to suit their own views. In any case- Good Luck!


HK Kevin  16:05:02 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Thanks Frank. It's mid Feb and I still can't figure out the market trend for trading in 2020. May be "be nimble" is the survival kit.


swiss frank  15:57:46 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Chartwise i think it looks like a decent enough risk reward trade to go long from 1.06 for a bounce. That said I think bigger picture it can go to 1.000. Position speak I am currently short usd/chf to protect eur shorts (hopefully). Tricky part will be legging out which I never seem to get right.

SNB has not been as active weakening the chf (so I'm told) as in the past due to fears of being labeled a currency manipulator in addition to their already being pretty long US stocks....

We'll see....


HK Kevin  15:51:30 GMT - 02/21/2020  
swiss frank 15:35, thanks.
Any view on eur/chf for mid term trade?
Look attractive to go long at current level with 50 pips stop for position trade


swiss frank  15:35:13 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Yes Kevin I think negative rates + unlikelihood of changing policy for a long time, and questionable growth potential amongst other issues perhaps makes one wonder why should eur go up. But with eur being one of the main if not the main funding ccy against a lot of things, when things get wobbly it leaves it as the 'unlikely' beneficiary in times of unwinds.


USA ZEUS  15:25:41 GMT - 02/21/2020  
50 year trendline points to super fiat magnet at 0.000000000.

Cheers!


london red  15:24:50 GMT - 02/21/2020  
cos its has big -ve rates


london red  15:24:20 GMT - 02/21/2020  
35yr trendline meanwhile, the big one fwiw, is down by 1.04


HK Kevin  15:23:22 GMT - 02/21/2020  
swiss frank, a silly question. Why EUR is unlikey the favourite ccy in case of unwinding of eur short carry trade?


hk win10  15:22:21 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Euro 20-year trendline supp @1.07, likely to hold


london red  15:21:06 GMT - 02/21/2020  
specs are shrt euro all week, they are close to hitting stops. yen must hold 11.23 or could see a big unwind also. if stocks stay ok, both of these squeezes will pass before close. if not then we need to wait til next week to fade euro.


swiss frank  15:02:30 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Maybe be cautious of carry trade (meaning short eur against everything) unwind potential here. If stocks see a big selloff along with emg ccys (mxn, brl, pln, zar, etc) eur could be the unlikely beneficiary. Might be worth protecting core eur shorts with jpy, chf, or sil longs.... Maybe.


london red  14:50:23 GMT - 02/21/2020  
euro broken fib 10863 a prev low 10879. mkt likely to top below 11050 as long as no close over 10863.


AT Trader john  13:50:51 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Canadian data a mild disappointment.


AT Trader john  13:35:31 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Retail Sales January 2020
Canada Charts





NEWS ALERT
Retail Sales
Headline: 0.0% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.90% (r +1.10% prev.)
X-Autos: +0.50% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.10% (r +0.50% prev.)






AT Trader john  10:02:36 GMT - 02/21/2020  
HICP unrevised no surprise


AT Trader 10:01:06 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Eurozone final HICP (CPI)
January 2020





ALERT
Headline
yy: +1.40% vs. +1.40% exp. vs. +1.40% prev.
CORE
yy: +1.10 vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.10% prev.





AT Trader 09:41:08 GMT - 02/21/2020  
Mixed to better flash UK PMI data vs. estimates.


AT Trader 09:39:47 GMT - 02/21/2020  
GB Flash PMIs February 2020




ALERT
GB 09:30 GMT
mfg: 51.9 vs. 49.7 exp. vs. 50.0 prev.
svc: 53.3 vs. 53.4 exp. vs. 53.9 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release





AT Trader john  09:08:28 GMT - 02/21/2020  
EURUSD liking PMI data, which generally were better, but not spectacular. Perhaps there is some underlying EURUSD demand unrelated to the data?


AT Trader 08:20:13 GMT - 02/21/2020  
EZ Flash PMIs February 2020




ALERT
EZ 08:00 GMT
mfg: 49.1 vs. 47.5 exp. vs. 47.9 prev.
svc: 52.8 vs. 52.3 exp. vs. 52.5 prev.

German 07:30 GMT
mfg 48.7 vs. 44.8 exp. vs. 45.3 prev.
svc: 53.3 vs. 53.9 exp. vs. 54.2 prev.

France 07:15 GMT
mfg: 49.7 vs. 50.7 exp. vs. 51.1 prev.
svc: 52.6 vs. 51.3 exp. vs. 51.0 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release





AT Trader 16:05:06 GMT - 02/20/2020  
US EIA Weekly Inventories






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +0.414 v +3.80 exp v +2.500 prev.
Distillates:-0.636 v -1.700 exp v -2.000 prev.
Gasoline: -1.971 v +0.500 exp v -0.100 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report





AT Trader 14:53:02 GMT - 02/20/2020  
Leading Indicators January, 2020

NEWS ALERT
+0.80% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.30% prev.



AT Trader john  13:43:51 GMT - 02/20/2020  
Some of the key components in the strong Philly Fed were soft...

As for weekly Jobless data this was the period when they were doing the survey for monthly Jobless.


AT Trader 13:33:19 GMT - 02/20/2020  

U.S. Philly Fed Index February 2020



NEWS ALERT


+36.7 vs. +10.0 exp. vs. +17.0 prev.



====================


Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT
210K vs: 212K expected vs. 205K (r )




swiss frank  12:49:59 GMT - 02/20/2020  
Main take aways from the minutes for me

They continuously sited September package pass thru effects and data from Nov and Dec. I wonder if current thinking remains the same.

The overnight index swap forward curve suggested that the markets currently expected the ECB to stay on hold for at least the next two years.

Mr Lane to keep the monetary policy stance unchanged. This entailed reiterating the Governing Councilís forward guidance on policy interest rates, net asset purchases and reinvestments of principal payments. A highly accommodative monetary policy stance for a prolonged period of time was seen as necessary


AT Trader john  12:32:16 GMT - 02/20/2020  
ECB minutes sounding cautiously optimistic to me...


AT Trader john  09:46:31 GMT - 02/20/2020  
U.K. Retail Sales beat estimates.


AT Trader 09:39:49 GMT - 02/20/2020  
U.K. Retail Sales January 2020



-- NEWS ALERT --

x-fuel & autos
mm: +1.60% v +0.90% exp. vs. -0.80% (r ) prev.
Headline
mm: +0.90% v +0.70% exp. vs. -0.60% (r -0.50%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales




AT Trader 19:15:42 GMT - 02/19/2020  
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes



NEWS ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes


Fed sees risks as somewhat more favorable... Current policy stance likely to remain appropriate for a time.



AT Trader 14:08:09 GMT - 02/19/2020  
Canada: CPI January 2020




NEWS ALERT
mm: +0.10% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.
yy: +2.40% vs. +2.40% exp. vs. +2.20% prev.





-----------------------------

U.S. PPI January 2019



NEWS ALERT
Final Demand: +0.50% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.
Core: +0.40% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.


RELEASE: Producer Price Index




-------------------------

U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)
December 2019



NEWS ALERT
Starts: 1.567 vs. 1.425 exp. vs. 1.610 (r ) prev.
Permits: 1.551 vs. 1.450 exp. vs. 1.420 (r) prev.

New Residential Construction



AT Trader 10:00:33 GMT - 02/19/2020  
U.K. CPI January 2020




-- NEWS ALERT --

CPI m/m: -0.30% vs. -0.40% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.
CPI y/y:+1.80% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.





AT Trader 15:00:23 GMT - 02/18/2020  
U.S. NAHB Index February 2020



NEWS ALERT
74.0 vs. 75.0 exp. vs. 75.0 (r) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index





Minneapolis DRS2  13:56:57 GMT - 02/18/2020  
If you're speculating (nothing wrong with that), then buying EUR/USD right now could be very profitable. But instead of guessing about market timing, one could just keep on selling for now, and use stops and money management to determine when to change course.


Israel  MacroMicro  13:51:35 GMT - 02/18/2020  
it's more wisdom than bravery to buy euros under 1.08
imo


london red  13:37:00 GMT - 02/18/2020  
below 10820 we are in gap territory. should now fill to 10777. we may get a bounce here. or it may happen down by 10720. mkt options dont see much risk of sustained move under 107. if you are wanting to sell, it may be worthing waiting for a rebound.


AT Trader 13:36:06 GMT - 02/18/2020  
Empire PMI January, 2019



NEWS ALERT
+12.9 vs. +5.0 exp. vs. +4.8 prev.




swiss frank  13:11:48 GMT - 02/18/2020  
kl shawn 11:07 GMT 02/18/2020
what would possibly the cause for a change though?

1 word: Employment. Just my opinion but as long as there are jobs (job growth) its all good. New jobs / job security -> more money going into 401Ks and people spend. Job growth stops -> game over.


Minneapolis DRS2  13:08:50 GMT - 02/18/2020  
I remember something that red said a week or two ago (I think it was red). What is the easier way to make money (especially for the lazy man like yours truly)?

1. Speculate on when EUR/USD will turn around.

or

2. Sell EUR/USD like everyone has been doing for over 2 years, with an appropriate stop. No speculation. No guessing. The stop will protect your account, but if the trend is still your friend even after 2 years that won't be a problem.


swiss frank  12:51:46 GMT - 02/18/2020  
Don't know man. Maybe. Up to you. Try and see how.


Israel  MacroMicro  12:46:25 GMT - 02/18/2020  
yes Frank, you say it SSSOOO logic, time for brief unlogic?


swiss frank  12:33:48 GMT - 02/18/2020  
I know more people than you'd think that are still long/hedged eur vs usd from 1.12-1.13 from late 2018 early 2019. The thing is the move down has been SOOO SLOOOOW they never felt pressured to doubt the validity of these hedges. Now that the pair is pressuring 1.08 against the backdrop of a slowing EU economy, a central bank focused as much on climate change as anything else, and easier said than done calls for increased government stimulus they're just now starting to question the value of these hedges. I think we see a capitulation type move lower way before any chance of eur recovery with traction.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:48:22 GMT - 02/18/2020  
Those who came into the year buying EURUSD with sights set for 1.15-1.17 only to see hopes dashed will be reluctant to jump in again with both feet unless/until technicals give the green light.

For me, I like to keep it simple and let the Amazing Trader guide me.

The Amazing Trader



London Trader  11:31:37 GMT - 02/18/2020  
If fx risk changes then less incentive to put on carry trades


kl shawn  11:07:56 GMT - 02/18/2020  
unwinding of PPT's work? Trump won't be happy


kl shawn  11:07:19 GMT - 02/18/2020  
what would possibly the cause for a change though?


GVI Forex 11:00:03 GMT - 02/18/2020  
As I said, reaction to news will give the clue.

As Swiss Frank pointed out a few weeks ago, EUR has been the favored carry currency so that would need to change to reverse direction.


kl shawn  10:57:46 GMT - 02/18/2020  
relax, gold is still under 1600...no sign of supporting that idea


london red  10:55:01 GMT - 02/18/2020  
GVI Forex 10:48 GMT 02/18/2020 - My Profile
Does this mean bad EZ economic news is actually good news for the EUR (i.e. greater chance of fiscal stimulus)? Have to watch reaction to news to see if market picks up on this theme.

the euro has tended not to work that way in that bad news has always sent the pair lower. but what you might find is that if there are more such comments, any poor data may see a dip lower which is subsequently bought. i would caution we are a long way of from that however and i would still expect the downside gap to be filled unless they upped the ante and official noises if not actions were made.


Mtl JP  10:49:18 GMT - 02/18/2020  
..."put a floor under the euro and can lead to a multi quarter rally"...
= trump's wet dream, not to neglect my own dlr down bias that I am suffering :(


GVI Forex 10:48:18 GMT - 02/18/2020  
Does this mean bad EZ economic news is actually good news for the EUR (i.e. greater chance of fiscal stimulus)? Have to watch reaction to news to see if market picks up on this theme.

The Amazing Trader



london red  10:45:09 GMT - 02/18/2020  
that can be a big deal. any action of that kind will put a floor under the euro and can lead to a multi quarter rally.


GVI Forex 10:41:17 GMT - 02/18/2020  
EURUSD popped up on this

EZ Finance Ministers, including German Finance Minister,Scholz, have adopted a recommendation for a fiscal boost in the event of a downturn.

Newsquawk



AT Trader 10:05:03 GMT - 02/18/2020  
Weak ZEW data.


AT Trader 10:02:31 GMT - 02/18/2020  
German ZEW Survey February 2020



NEWS ALERT

Current Situation: -15.7 vs. -10.3 exp. vs. -9.5 prev.
Expectations: +8.7 vs. +21.5 exp. vs. +26.7 prev.






GVI Forex 09:48:27 GMT - 02/18/2020  
German ZEW due at 10:00 GMT


AT Trader 09:35:24 GMT - 02/18/2020  
U.K. Employment December-January 2019-20




-- NEWS ALERT --

Claimant Count (000): 5.5 vs. 22.6 exp. vs 14.9 (r) prev.
ILO Rate: 3.80% vs. 3.80% exp. 3.80% prev.
earnings: 2.90% % vs. 3.00% exp. vs. 3.20% (r) prev.
earnings x-bonus: 3.20% vs. 3.30% exp. vs. 3.40% (r) prev.







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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