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dc CB  11:40:14 GMT - 04/01/2020  

april fools? you are joking, right?

Israel  MacroMicro  11:38:19 GMT - 04/01/2020  
ISM data to act as the major volatility provider for today

dc CB  11:17:42 GMT - 04/01/2020  
Gold COMEX Prelim data for 3-31.

April Contract. Deliveres 17,302 (each 100 oz)
Open Interest 7,351 Contracts

CME COMEX Gold Vol and OI

Mtl JP  11:11:01 GMT - 04/01/2020  
Bloomberg April 1, 2020 -- Oil held near $20 a barrel as Saudi Aramco’s output surged above 12 million barrels a day, but Russia said it would refrain from further production hikes. .../..

Mtl JP  11:03:07 GMT - 04/01/2020  
shawn 07:23 *-^
trump likely worried the headcutter stops buying / paying american killing equipement

Israel  MacroMicro  07:57:53 GMT - 04/01/2020  
of course crude prices will rise at certain point in the future. but how lower from current it will go or we seen the low for months/years already?

kl shawn  07:23:07 GMT - 04/01/2020  
JP, Trump is setting up a meeting with Saudi and Russia addressing oil price issue
common sense really...

Mtl JP  23:30:13 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Kl Shawn 15:52 March 31 - Oil will not go lower
I am assuming not much lower than $20
what is your rationale ? tia

Mtl JP  17:00:47 GMT - 03/31/2020  
darn me bad, beg your pardon:
Pivot 1.1064

what more...
do u need
100% guarantee ?

Mtl JP  16:57:54 GMT - 03/31/2020  
EURO 1.0974
20 day 1.1048
50 day 1.0991
100 day 1.1043
200 day 1.1075
srce.: the pros at

Bottom Line
Bias is down while under the MAs

HK Kevin  16:29:25 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Too soon to draw such a conclusion on weak dollar policy until Trump is crying "we favour a strong dollar". Other than USD, which ccy could play the role of a safe heaven while all ccys are at zero interest rate.

london red  16:23:19 GMT - 03/31/2020  
stox making hard work of 2640/46. a double t brewing with 2300/2350 tgt within 48 hrs if they cannot break higher.

london red  16:21:53 GMT - 03/31/2020  
115. really they need euro at partity to 1.05 to suit their needs. but fed doing excellent job of debasing usd with all that rate cutting and liquidity. just compare the two packages and its clear.

Kl Fs  16:18:41 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Where is livingston, nh? Havent seen him for a while.

Belgrade Knez  16:18:13 GMT - 03/31/2020  
london red
............ eu will not start jawboning until euro breaks 115........

did you mean 1.1500 or 1.1150?

thank you.

london red  16:06:54 GMT - 03/31/2020  
fed wants and usa needs weak usd to help recovery. dumb ass europeans and asians rather than fight this will let this run until it boils over in their economies. eu is recession/depression level, they need weak euro. but fed has ensured if u look hard enough u can even find a dollar up ur ass. plentiful usd means weak usd which means usa corps profits higher which means...yes u guessed it...stocks higher. what a surprise. eu will not start jawboning until euro breaks 115.

Kl Shawn  15:54:02 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Yeah JP, broad dollar move, looks like usd to be the funding currency now not safe haven anymore

Kl Shawn  15:52:33 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Gonna watch the close, below 1.42 keep selling rallies. Oil will not go lower

Mtl JP  15:40:55 GMT - 03/31/2020  
he ! its the dlr leg that is crapping

Kl Shawn  15:36:31 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Loonie puppy is killed

HK Kevin  15:29:28 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Hi JP, hopwe we both win in this irrational market
Mtl JP 13:30 GMT 03/31/2020
Kevin 12:13 - dono why not
I am biased uP seeing usd is in demand atm

london red  15:00:00 GMT - 03/31/2020  
twice. fix coming up, will calm after that

london red  14:50:11 GMT - 03/31/2020  
euro tests shs neck and back down half a fig. and who says techs dont work anymore!

Mtl JP  14:49:32 GMT - 03/31/2020  
weasel short trade, N of blue line nixes

Mtl JP  14:27:29 GMT - 03/31/2020  
keeping it tight:
biased to sell euro while under 1.0960/5

trgt 1.0900-ish
not clear to me that 1.09 would pierce on first approach

dc CB  14:27:19 GMT - 03/31/2020  
You will know by their deeds.

Paris ib  14:24:15 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Question for you CB: do you think the powers-that-be have lost control of the market or are at risk of losing control of the market? Or not?

I have no idea but I'd like to know what you think.

dc CB  14:22:24 GMT - 03/31/2020  
will Treas futures follow yest pattern----peaking as Europe closes?
Or will the mid day REV REPO move that forward 2 hours.

Yest the 30 fut went down 3 handles into the 5PM close/pause

GVI Forex 13:52:58 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Key time is usually the 4 PM London fix

Mtl JP  13:50:50 GMT - 03/31/2020  
..."as long as there is demand for USD"...
is key current trading theme imho
and swift like weasel trading tactic

swiss frank  13:44:26 GMT - 03/31/2020  
I don't know why but was told usd demand dries up after next 15 mins. We'll see...

swiss frank  13:43:14 GMT - 03/31/2020  
There's no 'trade' here. Its managed but long term it goes to 1.0000.

Mtl JP  13:40:36 GMT - 03/31/2020  
this puppy is outside of direct usd correlation
looking for trade ideas - TIA!

Mtl JP  13:30:35 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Kevin 12:13 - dono why not
I am biased uP seeing usd is in demand atm

dc CB  12:48:12 GMT - 03/31/2020  
2nd REPO
Single Day 0.00

dc CB  12:40:21 GMT - 03/31/2020  
the CASH trading hours will tell the story.

dc CB  12:37:31 GMT - 03/31/2020  
I posted yest that pension funds, seemingly following the recom of the LosAngeles TeachersPension fund, may be holding off, considering the speed of the market decline---deeming it "not prudent at this time"....

JPM put the number at $100bln left to do.

but who knows?

london red  12:29:39 GMT - 03/31/2020  
so they are done re rebalancing? 2640/46 the zone to beat on a daily close.

dc CB  12:27:11 GMT - 03/31/2020  
1st REPO today

Term 13 days due April 13 0.25bln

dc CB  12:22:17 GMT - 03/31/2020  
S&P futures

Emini chart via ZH

HK Kevin  12:13:38 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Mtl JP 11:36 GMT, I expect USD sell off admist decline of US stock today. Why not sell USD/CAD at around 1.4270/80 for 100 pips profit with a tight stop

Mtl JP  11:36:15 GMT - 03/31/2020  
USDCAD 1.4250
I am gunning for 1.43 ++ 1.45

kl shawn  11:18:44 GMT - 03/31/2020  
JP, loonie has finished correction? resuming up or do you see something else?

Mtl JP  10:59:02 GMT - 03/31/2020  
EURO 1.0952 dingding dingding
Mtl JP 15:14 GMT March 30, 2020
EURO 1.1034
st bias down while under 1.1050
S (or trgt) at 1.10, and 1.0955-50

no "confirmation"
no "100% guaranteed"

Mtl JP  10:57:53 GMT - 03/31/2020  
europeans were higher altho they gave up some of the gain but still in the green atm
US is uP some

Gold is down some $20-ish

AT Trader john  09:30:30 GMT - 03/31/2020  
Early Tuesday
DJ: +123
SP: +14.4

2-yr 0.238% -0.1
Spread 10s-2s +46.7 (+47.4)

US: 0.712% +4.1
UK: 0.370% +3.9
DE: -0.473% +5.4

Spot Rate (Pivot Point)
EURUSD 1.0983 (1.1011)
GBPUSD 1.2348 (1.2390)
EURGBP 0.8890 (0.8921)
USDJPY 108.40 (107.78)

This Week 1.1053-1.0972 (81 pips)

tue: 1.1053-1.0972 (81) fri: 1.1124-1.0993 (131)
thu: 1.1045-1.0870 (175)
wed: 1.0761-1.0883 (123)

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20-day avg: 1.1048
50-day avg: 1.0991
100-day avg: 1.1043
200-day avg: 1.1075

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

AT Trader john  09:15:53 GMT - 03/31/2020  

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 Mar 2020
Final Mfg PMIs some
A 08:55 DE- Employment
Wed 1 Apr 2020
Final Manufacturing PMIs all day
A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 2 Apr 2019
A 08:55 EZ- PPI
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Trade
Fri 3 Apr 2019
Final Service PMIs all day
AA 12:30 US- Employment

Mtl JP  01:06:06 GMT - 03/31/2020  
1.0983 low but ...
looks like some hanki panki probing

Mtl JP  00:54:53 GMT - 03/31/2020  
EURO 1.1005
trying to pierce down lets see

Israel  MacroMicro  22:33:08 GMT - 03/30/2020  
gold 1570/1720 range

Mtl JP  22:16:56 GMT - 03/30/2020  
USDCAD 1.4155
Opportunities r-coming
MNP Consumer Debt Index - March 2020

Against the backdrop of a global pandemic, almost half of Canadians are concerned about their debt, a 10-point jump since December

Our results underscore how vulnerable Canadian households are to income interruption. Over the next few months we’ll likely see an unfolding of two crises: the global pandemic and the bursting of the Canadian consumer debt bubble,

dc CB  20:30:20 GMT - 03/30/2020  
Breaking News from THE DESK. (via ZH)

Shortly before the close on Monday, the New York Fed issued a surprise announcement according to which it pushed forward the start time of tomorrow's month and quarter-end Overnight Reverse Repo operation to 12:30 PM ET from 12:45 PM ET, while keeping the end time of the operation at 1:15 PM ET, effectively increasing the operation time from 30 minutes to 45 minutes.

Why? The Fed explains:

This change has been made to ensure the Desk has sufficient time to obtain all bids from eligible counterparties on quarter end in light of remote working arrangements of eligible counterparties.

Statement Regarding Overnight Reverse Repurchase Operation on Tuesday, March 31, 2020

AT Trader john  20:09:21 GMT - 03/30/2020  
Late Monday
DJ: +690
SP: +85.2

2-yr 0.228% -3.3
Spread 10s-2s +46.7 (+49.9)

US: 0.695% -4.9
UK: 0.331% -0.1
DE: -0.507% +0.2

Spot Rate (Pivot Point)
EURUSD 1.1038 (1.1011)
GBPUSD 1.2380 (1.2390)
EURGBP 0.8906 (0.8921)
USDJPY 107.88 (107.78)

This week 1.1044-1.1010 (27)pips

mon: 1.1044-1.1010 (27)
fri: 1.1124-1.0993 (131)
thu: 1.1045-1.0870 (175)
wed: 1.0761-1.0883 (123)
tue: 1.0721-1.0889 (168)

Sign up now for your invaluable report

How To Turn Your Forex Trading Into A Business

20-day avg: 1.1048
50-day avg: 1.0991
100-day avg: 1.1043
200-day avg: 1.1075

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points

dc CB  19:15:37 GMT - 03/30/2020  
re-thinking the rebalance.

JPM Kolanovic: We estimate that re balance for the month end which is Tuesday could be around $100-$125B now. We think 60% still needs to be done 40% in a relatively short period of time... Trump is now on point risk reward is to be long time to risk some
9:24 PM - Mar 29, 2020

Plus via ZeroHedge:
stock euphoria may have just suffered a potentially terminal blow after "a large California pension has postponed their scheduled quarterly rebalancing" adding that as California pensions are the "thought leaders in the pension community", it is likely that "others will either follow along in postponing or reducing anticipated rebalancing."

......referring to an article in P&I online, according to which "Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System's board temporarily modified its asset allocation and rebalancing policies, which includes allowing the staff to defer rebalancing its asset allocation if deemed appropriate, said Rodney June, CIO of the $15.1 billion pension fund, in an email."

"The market conditions are unusual and volatility is well beyond historical norms," said a staff memo for the board's meeting Tuesday. "Staff believes that while extreme market volatility is present owing to the decline in the total portfolio value ... shoring up liquidity within the UCA (unallocated cash account) is important to ensure that LACERS can readily meet ongoing cash flow obligations of approximately $95 million per month."

The memo also said suspending rebalancing during extreme periods of volatility is prudent.

AT Trader john  16:48:36 GMT - 03/30/2020  

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 Mar 2020
Final Mfg PMIs some
A 08:55 DE- Employment
Wed 1 Apr 2020
Final Manufacturing PMIs all day
A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 2 Apr 2019
A 08:55 EZ- PPI
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Trade
Fri 3 Apr 2019
Final Service PMIs all day
AA 12:30 US- Employment

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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