▪ Economics is not a precise science. Economists use decimal points in their forecasts to show they have a sense of humor. Economic data is almost impossible to survey in a lockdown. But we do need to find out how much economies are slowing.
▪ A good rule of thumb is that every month of lockdown will cut a country's GDP by 2% to 3% each month.
▪ About 60% of what people spend will not change or will rise in a lockdown (e.g. food at home). If we cut spending on three quarters of everything else we buy, that is close to 2% of GDP every month.
▪ Shutting down parts of an economy in the summer is quite normal in France or the Nordic region. Large parts of these economies close for four to six weeks. Before seasonal adjustments, these shutdowns cause private sector GDP falls of 1.5% to 3.5% over the summer.
▪ The International Labour Organisation estimates global hours worked will fall by a very precise 6.7% in the second quarter. Hours worked are not quite the same as GDP. Some workers do more in an hour than others. However, that fits with lockdowns cutting GDP by 2% to 3% a month.
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Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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