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dc CB  22:12:12 GMT - 05/11/2020  
Crude thots

may be worth paying attention to the US storage numbers this week, along with the CME daily Open Interest stats for the June contract.
That contract LT date is coming up next week...ReDux May's negative price?

That is If you can find a place to trade CL---that dosen't require $30K+++ margin per contract.


dc CB  21:32:12 GMT - 05/11/2020  
 
the only game in town


dc CB  21:29:00 GMT - 05/11/2020  
 
SPX ---- fagedda about that.
The Cubes are in the gap


dc CB  21:22:45 GMT - 05/11/2020  
the Treasury sold a supersized 3Y auction - coming at a record high amount of $42Bn vs $40Bn last month and a record low yield of 0.230%, which also stopped through the 0.231% When Issued, the first non-tailing 3Y auction of 2020.

The bid to cover jumped from 2.27 in April to 2.54, the highest since February and well above the 2.440 recent average,
The internals were quite solid as well, with Indirects taking down 54.4%, while Directs jumped from 4.1% to 13.1%, the highest since February, and leaving 32.6% to Dealers, the lowest since December.

Why the stellar demand? Because all the buyers know they just need to hold on the paper for a few days before they can flip it back to the Fed for some risk-free profits.
(ZH)



Mtl JP  20:55:12 GMT - 05/11/2020  
From NYT:
-
...“Banks entered this crisis in a position of strength,” Mr. Quarles said in prepared remarks released on Monday afternoon, adding that “banking organizations are well-positioned to serve as a source of strength, not strain, in the current crisis.” .../.

According Mr. Quarles, long an ally of the banking industry, said that financial institutions

“now have an essential part to play in addressing that disruption — as a bridge between the start of this crisis and the completion of our economic recovery.”



Mtl JP  20:18:54 GMT - 05/11/2020  
peak -> valley -> zig-zags -> almost back to peak

SPX last ten days



london red  19:26:54 GMT - 05/11/2020  
looks like ndz will do 9406 tomorrow not today. if early fill it sets up for a fall. but dont hold yer breath.


Mtl JP  19:25:01 GMT - 05/11/2020  
yaaa ... do u see / hear /smell buffet throwing around billion$ ?
this bird had few feathers singed in dawn of his life - who d have tot eh - he ll be double prudent now that he got trigger-ritiss


Israel  MacroMicro  19:21:14 GMT - 05/11/2020  
CNBC now screaming it's V shape, time to SHORT most probably


Mtl JP  19:20:23 GMT - 05/11/2020  
Lest there be mis-conception about infrastructure spending:
that sort of spending does not grow the economy.
But it does provide some profit opps for early birds


london red  19:16:00 GMT - 05/11/2020  
CAT and in the UK Ashtead. they always "forget" to do that one but it runs up shortly after


Mtl JP  19:14:35 GMT - 05/11/2020  
re hassett - that would be old "news" (i.e. history) as he started to make those noises a few days ago.
ex.: "Hassett said on CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sunday that he believes the unemployment rate will surpass 20% and peak in May or June"

Money-making Trade Opportunity suggestion (not advice):
IF u see noises being made about some massive infrustructure spending (like DJT s been hinting), load up on cement, rebar and possibly digging eq manufacturers.
ps//own diligence a must


london red  19:07:05 GMT - 05/11/2020  
they are massaging expectations to ensure every number is a beat


Israel  MacroMicro  19:03:50 GMT - 05/11/2020  
BREAKING: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expects the unemployment rate to climb past 20%


______


WOW this must be the trigger to take DOW above 37500


PAR 18:48:26 GMT - 05/11/2020  
Too much liquidity chasing the same tech stocks, too much cash being invested in stock buy backs.


Israel  MacroMicro  17:55:59 GMT - 05/11/2020  
equities are busy to price in inflation as otherwise there is no reason for equities to be so high during global lockdown. imo


london red  16:47:13 GMT - 05/11/2020  
JP, $hit load of paper crap being sold this week so theyll dump to make room and then push em back down.


Mtl JP  16:40:21 GMT - 05/11/2020  
however incompatible that may be with 10-yr yielding 0.712% presently


Mtl JP  16:38:16 GMT - 05/11/2020  
 
enthusiasts (with money ?) trumping
nay-sayers (lacking conviction?)


london red  16:21:24 GMT - 05/11/2020  
looks like ndx fills gap to 9400 today


london red  15:37:05 GMT - 05/11/2020  
LQD fills powell gap


london red  15:35:11 GMT - 05/11/2020  
closed near wks high so early backfilling sets up for gains later in wk if sup is held.


Mtl JP  15:33:48 GMT - 05/11/2020  
just as I read / hear more "stock players are too optimistic" (various headlines/pundits) SnP goes uP ~15-20 points


Mtl JP  14:59:40 GMT - 05/11/2020  
justin trudeau announces additional support for businesses to help save Canadian jobs

the Government of Canada will :



Mtl JP  13:42:45 GMT - 05/11/2020  
Stocks - 10 minutes in
-
DJIA better return than SnP:
DJIA 9:40 AM
24,124.45 -206.87 -0.85%

S&P 500 SPX 9:40 AM
2,912.77 -17.03 -0.58%

better return on %age basis.


Mtl JP  13:11:06 GMT - 05/11/2020  
 
EURO 1.0825
-
Puppy w/ a slight nega-bias.
Probably needs to hold sub 1.0840 to keep it and trgt 1.0726
S at 1.0790/75/67; R 1.0850


HK Kevin  12:34:04 GMT - 05/11/2020  
london red 11:26 GMT, negative rate is just a talk show. Remember this will be a busy week for bond auction, so Powell's top priority is to cap the bond yield.


Mtl JP  11:31:35 GMT - 05/11/2020  
maybe a big NO NO to negarates but I also expect a big NO NO to any thoughts of hiking rates.

Do I dare imagine the FED hinting at tightening except for in some long distant future away ?


london red  11:26:47 GMT - 05/11/2020  
JP, powell will tell his buddies on weds that its a big no no to negative rates
JM, july 1st is brexit extension deadline. if they dont extend transition by then, then uk must leave with whatever has or has not been agreed, on dec 31st 2020. no if buts or maybe. that $hit is written in stone. so far there has been little nterest to price this risk esp in the light of boris saying on a number of occasions post his covid scare, that there will be no extension.


NY JM  11:20:20 GMT - 05/11/2020  
JP, finally some logic as marking yields didn’t ahead of a deluge of auctions this week made no sense.


NY JM  11:18:51 GMT - 05/11/2020  
Red, you have been ahead of the curve citing the Brexit risk. Tks for keeping us on alert.

Also this implies buying EURGBP on sharp dips??


Mtl JP  11:16:58 GMT - 05/11/2020  
One could chose higher yield
(U.S. 10 Yr 0.689 vs 0.620 friday)
as cause of DLR uP


london red  11:14:30 GMT - 05/11/2020  
brexit hoes will be buyers from cloud top 12310 to last low 12247. stops below. they will want to close at 12354 or higher. brexit talks going frm $hit to worse but us cbs will always buy the dip. cos its never diff, but it will be diff for these talks, they just dont know it yet. so sterling is a sell on blips and also a buy on dips for the spritely.LTt tgt eurgbp parity always in play. cable could offer 1.10 but it largely depends on what usd does overall. imp to take away that it will underperform compared to euro, vs the usd once this is all thrashed out.


Mtl JP  11:08:08 GMT - 05/11/2020  
Stocks
-
Asians closed uP
Europeans currently DOwn some
US looking to open DOwn
--
DLR is uP, back N of 100


AT Trader john  09:21:08 GMT - 05/11/2020  
MONDAY
DJ: +28
SP: +1.0

2-yr 0.155% +0.6
Spread 10s-2s +53.6 bps (+52.8bps)

10-yr
US: 0.691% +2.5
UK: 0.261% +2.5
DE: -0.521% +1.1

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.0814 (1.0844)
GBPUSD 1.2364 (1.2412)
EURGBP 0.8748 (0.8738)
USDJPY 106.25 (106.52)

Last Week 1.0975-1.0767 (208 pips)
mon: 1.0851-1.0809 (52)
fri: 1.0875-1.0815 (60)
thu: 1.0834-1.0767 (67)
wed: 1.0848-1.0782 (56)
tue: 1.0926-1.0826 (100)


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20-day avg: 1.0867
50-day avg: 1.0950
100-day avg: 1.0990
200-day avg: 1.1026

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AT Trader john  09:08:36 GMT - 05/11/2020  

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 11 May 2020
No Major Data
Tue 12 May 2020
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Wed 13 May 2020
A 06:00 GB- Output, Trade, GDP
A 09:00 EZ- Industrial Production
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 14 May 2020
B 12:30 US- Import Prices
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
<AA 20:30 AU- Employment
Fri 15 May 2020
AA 09:00 EZ- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
B 12:30 US- Empire PMI
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
B 14:00 US- JOLTS
A 14:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan




AT Trader john  19:47:06 GMT - 05/10/2020  

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 11 May 2020
No Major Data
Tue 12 May 2020
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Wed 13 May 2020
A 06:00 GB- Output, Trade, GDP
A 09:00 EZ- Industrial Production
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 14 May 2020
B 12:30 US- Import Prices
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
<AA 20:30 AU- Employment
Fri 15 May 2020
AA 09:00 EZ- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
B 12:30 US- Empire PMI
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
B 14:00 US- JOLTS
A 14:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan




AT Trader john  21:17:32 GMT - 05/09/2020  
LATE Friday
DJ: +455
SP: +48.6

2-yr 0.153% +1.1
Spread 10s-2s +52.8 bps (+49.6 bps)

10-yr
US: 0.681% +0.5
UK: 0.233% -0.3
DE: -0.530% +0.3

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.0842 (1.0844)
GBPUSD 1.2411 (1.2412)
EURGBP 0.8733 (0.8738)
USDJPY 106.60 (106.52)

THIS Week 1.0975-1.0767 (208 pips)
fri: 1.0875-1.0815 (60)
thu: 1.0834-1.0767 (67)
wed: 1.0848-1.0782 (56)
tue: 1.0926-1.0826 (100)
mon: 1.0975-1.0896 (79)


Sign up now for your invaluable report

How To Turn Your Forex Trading Into A Business

20-day avg: 1.0867
50-day avg: 1.0950
100-day avg: 1.0990
200-day avg: 1.1026

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points







AT Trader john  13:28:54 GMT - 05/09/2020  

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 11 May 2020
No Major Data
Tue 12 May 2020
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Wed 13 May 2020
A 06:00 GB- Output, Trade, GDP
A 09:00 EZ- Industrial Production
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 14 May 2020
B 12:30 US- Import Prices
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
<AA 20:30 AU- Employment
Fri 15 May 2020
AA 09:00 EZ- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
B 12:30 US- Empire PMI
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
B 14:00 US- JOLTS
A 14:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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