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Mtl JP  14:59:49 GMT - 05/15/2020  
..."globalization is doomed"...
- not when it comes to the co-ordinated fake money spraying around at minimum in the G7 if not G20


PAR 14:58:17 GMT - 05/15/2020  
Lobbycracy. Ask some state loan or guarantee when you buy your jet.


haifa ac  14:31:27 GMT - 05/15/2020  
"The use of private jets seems to be booming."

Any where you look--it seems that globalization is doomed for a while.
This was Yuval Harari divine message and the basis of Kai Fu Li investment philosophy.
Seems we are going to kvetch and worry more about our own little community and care less about our fellow man.
I intend to purchase a few private jets myself.


AT Trader john  14:02:19 GMT - 05/15/2020  
Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index May 2020



NEWS ALERT
73.7 vs. 67.5 exp. vs. 71.8 prev


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment



++++++++++++++++++++++++


April 2020 JOLTS Survey



ALERT

6.191 vs. 5.770 exp vs. 6.880 mn (r ) prev.




AT Trader john  14:02:19 GMT - 05/15/2020  
Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index May 2020



NEWS ALERT
73.7 vs. 67.5 exp. vs. 71.8 prev


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment



++++++++++++++++++++++++


April 2020 JOLTS Survey



ALERT

6.191 vs. 5.770 exp vs. 6.880 mn (r ) prev.




AT Trader john  13:21:34 GMT - 05/15/2020  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization April 2020

ALERT
Ind Production: -11.2% vs. -16.30% exp. vs. -5.40% (r ) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 64.9% vs. 56.0% exp. vs. 72.7% (r ) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization





PAR 12:53:23 GMT - 05/15/2020  

UBS Logo
UBS Weekly Blog

By Paul Donovan

Is the economic consensus useful anymore?

▪ Economics is not precise. While the media demand the precision of decimal points, economics is mainly about identifying trends. The virus is making this all the more obvious.
▪ This is not a normal downturn. This is a sudden policy-induced downturn—like turning off a light switch. Consumers and firms may react differently when the “light switch” is turned on again. The causes of this downturn are less complex than normal, and that may alter consumer uncertainty about the recovery. Normal economic models may not work.
▪ In addition, economic data is largely nonsense in a lockdown. Data quality was getting worse before the virus. Now, no one is filling in survey forms. Economists are asked to forecast what statisticians guess is happening in the economy. It is possible that economists are right and statisticians are wrong.
▪ This means a lack of precision, which makes an "economic consensus" a meaningless number. Forecasts for the US April unemployment rate ranged from 11.6% to 22.0%. The US December unemployment range was 3.4% to 3.7%. Estimates for second quarter Euro area GDP range from –1.6% y/y to –19.8% y/y. Describing a number as above or below consensus is not helpful. Economists—and markets—cannot be that precise about today's world.


PAR 12:48:49 GMT - 05/15/2020  
The use of private jets seems to be booming.


PAR 12:46:07 GMT - 05/15/2020  
Mtl

Mastercard record numbers. Worth more than JPM at the moment. Some people keep spending.


PAR 12:40:49 GMT - 05/15/2020  
Everything moved online as people WFH and shops were
closed. These figures are crap.


Mtl JP  12:35:35 GMT - 05/15/2020  
retail sales massively off but Visa steady at $180


AT Trader john  12:32:53 GMT - 05/15/2020  
U.S. Retail Sales April 2020



ALERT
Headline:-16.4% vs. -4.40% exp. vs. +2.00% (r) prev.
Core (x-a)-16.2% vs. -2.00% exp. vs. -4.50%(r)prev.






-------------------


Empire PMI April, 2019



NEWS ALERT
-48.5 vs. -64.0 exp. vs. 78.2 prev.




london red  13:05:41 GMT - 05/14/2020  
spoos lst wk low 2780 a wkly close below would be a bearish outside wk.


Mtl JP  12:41:09 GMT - 05/14/2020  
"shot in the dark" is the new and current mantra by "experts" and gov't types - a convenient, acceptable by the peasants logical n rational "essplainer" by the willy and wolly romping of and by finacial policy and law-making types, in this allegedly "never seen before" situation.


AT Trader john  12:34:42 GMT - 05/14/2020  
Jobless Claims in line. Note there have been no revisions. Suggests data are a shot in the dark.


AT Trader john  12:32:36 GMT - 05/14/2020  
Weekly Jobless Claims



ALERT
+2.980mln vs: +3.0mln expected vs. +3.2mln (r )




-----------------------


Import Prices April 2020



NEWS ALERT
-2.6% vs. -3.10% exp. vs. -2.30% prev.




PAR 11:48:44 GMT - 05/14/2020  
Does Trump wants to go short US stocks?

Then negative rates are a great idea.


Mtl JP  11:37:32 GMT - 05/14/2020  
"worst" is relative
had u been short, u d have been warm and fuzzy in the dome rolling in dough


PAR 11:34:57 GMT - 05/14/2020  
Look what negative interest rates have done to European
stocks. Since negative rates among the worst
performers in the world. Negative rates made European
government debt explode to unseen levels even before Corona.


Mtl JP  11:27:50 GMT - 05/14/2020  
Trump says he won't renegotiate trade deal with China


Mtl JP  11:19:04 GMT - 05/14/2020  
impetuous is President Trump's trademark

drives folks who think of themselves "normal", "rational", who claim his behaviour "non-presidential" nuts, right into a wall


NY JM  11:10:36 GMT - 05/14/2020  
Trump wants negative rates because he was told it would be good for stocks.
'
His strong dollar comments make no sense other than he was told it is needed to be able to fund the ballooning deficit.

All IMHO


Mtl JP  10:46:01 GMT - 05/14/2020  
chinese communists still not getting it; still defiant:
-
Hu Xijin 胡锡进
@HuXijin_GT
·
52 min
I am asked a lot recently: Will a war break out between China and the US? My answer: The two countries increasingly dislike each other, various conflicts are rising, therefore, risk for a military clash is increasing. But meanwhile, they both don't want a war. Am I right?
-
Hu Xijin 胡锡进
@HuXijin_GT
17h
To counteract the abuse of anti-China litigation over COVID-19, Beijing is already preparing to take the necessary punishment measures against some members of the US Congress, the state of Missouri, and relevant individuals and entities, sources told Global Times

Hu Xijin 胡锡进 is
Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times

Hu Xijin 胡锡进 is
Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times



Mtl JP  10:33:00 GMT - 05/14/2020  
 
maybe it is intentional: DLR is uP


Paris ib  10:32:35 GMT - 05/14/2020  
Anyone spot the contradiction between those 2 positions?


AT Trader john  10:15:10 GMT - 05/14/2020  
Trump "good time to have a strong USD"
talks again in favor of negative interest rates

source: Newsquawk.com


london red  16:38:14 GMT - 05/13/2020  
spx stops 2 pts abv last wks low which was 2797. there is a bit of a vacuum to 2750/30/20. seems a bridge too far to go under 2797 today but if it does it could drop dwn there v quickly.


london red  16:18:55 GMT - 05/13/2020  
ndx 8840 gap. may not stop til then


AT Trader john  14:33:20 GMT - 05/13/2020  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil mn: -0.745 v +4.300 exp v +4.600 prev.
Distillates mn: +3.513 v +3.150 exp v 9.520 prev.
Gasoline mn: -3.511 v -2.300 exp v -3.160 prev.



Weekly Petroleum Status Report





london red  13:31:53 GMT - 05/13/2020  
spx gap at 2844 yet to be closed but better if it backfilled yest range a bit first 2880 maybe 2900 then lower as fall to 2844/20 likely to be met with more bulls.


london red  13:25:42 GMT - 05/13/2020  
yields moved back after that, but he will want to finish dovish as lotta debt to go this week and the next. and the next. and the next...


swiss frank  13:21:50 GMT - 05/13/2020  
Not looking at nega rates.


london red  13:18:34 GMT - 05/13/2020  
us rates below zero by 2021 after powell. so how does that tie in with v shape. will they be cutting below zero as the economy booms at the end of q4 2020


PAR 13:08:18 GMT - 05/13/2020  
Problems with his throat. Get a test?


swiss frank  13:06:17 GMT - 05/13/2020  
Seems to have a problem with his throat. Other than that same bla bla bla


HK Kevin  12:45:03 GMT - 05/13/2020  
Any QAs session?


london red  12:43:18 GMT - 05/13/2020  
powell up next. how does he stay dovish yet taken negative rates off the table?


PAR 12:35:57 GMT - 05/13/2020  
Companies have no pricing power at all.


AT Trader john  12:32:21 GMT - 05/13/2020  
U.S. PPI April 2020



NEWS ALERT
Final Demand: -1.30% vs. -0.40% exp. vs. -0.20% (r. ) prev.
Core: -0.90% vs. +0.00% exp. vs. +0.20% (r. ) prev.


RELEASE: Producer Price Index




AT Trader john  09:04:59 GMT - 05/13/2020  
Industrial Production March 2020





ALERT
-12.9% vs. -12.4% exp vs. -1.90% (r -2.20%) prev.





AT Trader john  12:33:02 GMT - 05/12/2020  
U.S. CPI April 2020



ALERT
Headline:
m/m: -0.80% vs. -0.70% exp. v -0.40% pre
y/y: +0.30% vs. +0.40% exp. v +1.50% pre
Core:
y/y:+1.40% vs. +1.70% exp. v +2.10% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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