DRS2 alternately a trader could "imagine" that the move is not about "demand" for the euro but a distaste for the dollar: a shark "gastric eversion" of the dollar. (not it is not an A/T trading pattern term - yet)
HK Kevin 17:50:13 GMT - 07/30/2020
Put my casino chip on the table. Short EUR at 1.1832 with tight stop.
Minneapolis DRS2 17:33:57 GMT - 07/30/2020
I agree with EUR/USD eventually retesting 1400. Looking on a daily chart, price has gone up and up and up since 1400 without any retrace. I have no evidence, but personally I attribute this latest move more to a stop run than to actual "demand", whatever that means these days.
Judging from the AT daily chart, various stops are shown until 1850. I don't know where the stops are after that, but I imagine 2000 is a real popular target for a stop hunt? Just guessing. If there is still a bear case to be made for EUR, then I imagine 2000 would be a great selling level too.
Fortunately, there is increasing room for both the bear and bull cases, with the caveat that the bull case is still more profitable right now. However, the bear case can be a money maker, as long as you are happy with singles and not home runs. The latest moves over the past couple of days show 1770 to 1720 (down 50 pips), 1720 to 1800 (up 80 pips), 1800 to 1730 (down 70 pips), and the current run of 1730 to 1830+ (up at least 100 pips). This bias will eventually flip, but for now you can be either a bull or a bear and still make money. Just don't be a pig.
Mtl JP 17:23:25 GMT - 07/30/2020
back from a little roadtrip and ohlalaahh... it was not so long ago euro was tilting sub 1.08 or... it is the USD that continues to not be wanted
swiss frank 16:13:12 GMT - 07/30/2020
Forgot to mention that gold, silver, and eur crosses which have all been rising in tandem are not exactly bid at the moment... Not trying to convince anyone. Just pointing out what could be... Maybe.
swiss frank 15:57:00 GMT - 07/30/2020
SC 13:41 GMT 07/30/2020
eur$ bears change your minds yet?
Personally it has not been a particularly good few days since the clearance of 1.14 for me. Longer term I am more usd negative than positive. That said at these levels there is a lot of good news in the price of the eur (imo). Not in any particular order:
- EU data has been pretty crap.
- Covid cases are rising the same as everywhere.
- Debt to gdp ratios are high and going way higher.
- Equity markets are underperforming
- yields are getting more negative.
- Technically I'd call it a little stretched on the 4 hour chart basis and due for some mean reversion.
- Startegically I'm ok with setting structural shorts between here and 1.20 (I know thats a big window for some but...) for a move back down to and validation of 1.1400 support.
Singspore SC 13:41:03 GMT - 07/30/2020
eur$ bears change your minds yet?
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