I wrote this article six years ago and it is still relevant in today’s forex market, especially in the current politically driven GBP currency.
I define a “political market” as one that is being driven by events other than economic and monetary policy. Some may call it crisis trading but I prefer the term “political markets” as it covers positive as well as negative events although the latter tends to be the more dominant. Political markets can see some significant forex market and other global markets moves so the question is how do you trade them?
Nations far poorer and less technologically advanced have no problem holding quick, efficient elections. Distrust in U.S. outcomes is dangerous but rational.
‘A political powder keg’: Voters in the Washington region face an Election Day like no other
Threats of violence, mistrust in the integrity of the election and a deadly pandemic that makes voting physically risky have conjured a bleak mood among those casting ballots in the District, Maryland and Virginia.
By Lola Fadulu, Laura Vozzella, Ovetta Wiggins, Rachel Chason and Peter Jamison ●
_____________________________________________
Maryland voters turn out in force for election: ‘He needs to go’
More than 2.3 million people voted early in deep-blue Maryland, which is expected to support Biden.
in the interest of trading (volatility is good)
the prefered result tonite would be:
Disputed Outcome
Mtl JP 17:11:14 GMT - 11/02/2020
EURO 1.1631-ish
-
unenthusistically bullish
Resisted 1.1650 already
S at 1.1620/10/00
Mtl JP 15:35:53 GMT - 11/02/2020
FWIW AND FYI
biden - covid - scientist
-
just in case biden takes the presidency
biden is on record claiming he would listen to Dr. Ezekiel J. Emanuel
-
Below link to op by BETSY MCCAUGHEY at BostonHerald:
in general, the markets waiting to results much more than they wait to know who is to be the president.
as once you have results you can apply a theme, so far there is no theme to apply in time frame longer than 12hrs without rechecking the theme R/R ratio.
imo
Mtl JP 00:49:52 GMT - 11/02/2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
-
Biden leads Trump by 10 percentage points in latest national poll
- MarketWatch
- The 2020 election race is still tight between Trump and Biden - cnbc
Sprinkle a bit of scientist's powder:
‘We’re in for a whole lot of hurt,’ Fauci says, warning U.S. needs ‘abrupt change’ to avoid winter coronavirus disaster - MarketWatch
Sam Stovall, never encountered a president who was mad and a mass murderer.
Mtl JP 23:39:22 GMT - 10/31/2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
The “Presidential Predictor”
‘implies, but does not guarantee’ popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 index’s SPX, (-1.21%) presidential election-year performance from July 31 to Oct. 31. Going back to 1944, it’s found that a positive move over that period usually corresponds to a presidential victory by the incumbent party, while a negative move signals a loss.
some of US MainStream news org are starting to get the idea that Biden may lose....perhaps because of, well the stuff that can't be mentioned(censored Russian election influence). Then what happens to their business model then. 4+ years of OrangeManBad and current All In for Biden.
Where will the butter come for their toast? if that happens.
Because when it comes down to it - It's All Abou the Benjamins.
So they reluctantly let some 'reporting' slip out past the gatekeepers. After all, this is just the biggest story of this election cycle.
__________________________________________________
Update (1030ET): Now that the dam has broken, more MSM "journalists" are jumping on the Hunter Biden story, including CNN's Jake Tapper, who acknowledged on Saturday that Hunter Biden's relationship with Burisma - initiated just weeks after his father became the top US diplomat responsible for purging corruption in Ukraine - "stinks"
one one side, a candidate who allowed himself to get bankrupt in billions (some took a real heat!) and got billionaire again. clear sign for zero integrity as a person.
on the other side, a candidate who was busy using much lower profile to make "big ones" all around the places that were willing to accept his access to political brewing schemes. also not a signal for integrity.
the deciders (aka voters) are 100's of millions of people being told they are part of the richest nation on earth and still got no clue how to survive 3 months further without selling their souls.
outcome: no changes, 100's of millions of Americans still will not have a clue how to survive 3 months ahead without keeping selling their souls to law system they actually cannot change. keep them busy with amendments and right of abortion as never dying issue.
now, calculate the levels to buy the dips and sell the blips. I guess there is not other way for a trader to keep himself out the 3 months (or 3 decades) equation without trading the right levels.
have a great weekend
haifa ac 06:37:53 GMT - 10/31/2020
Trump may just keep campaigning after Election Day
Lets hope this creature disappears into the trash bins of history.
dc CB 01:15:19 GMT - 10/31/2020
Rasputin follow-up:
Cause(s)????
Following contentious Congressional testimony this week from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and a 22% drop on Friday, the social media giant finally decided to unlock the New York Post's account just days before the general election - after more than two weeks in Twitter jail for posting a negative article on the company's preferred candidate, Joe Biden. (ZH)
Effect - (chart.)
******Warning this implied correlation is Russian influenced 'disinformantion' that has been Debunked. ********##trendingTwitter
Earlier in the day, CNN's Jake Tapper suggested the Post simply bend the knee and delete the offending tweet.
want to go shopping next week to get one og those outfits AOC(tax the rich) wore for the Vanity Fair piece ($14,000 worth of clothes and shoes to choose from). Might be tuff to do at the designer shops.
_______________________________________________
the San Francisco Business Times posted a photo of the Salesforce Tower, which was also boarded up.
"Bracing for potential violence after next week's election, several landlords near Salesforce Tower and Union Square freshly boarded up their storefronts this week," the Times said.
***********************************
HKD (Harmeet K. Dhillon)
@pnjaban
Shops in San Francisco’s now-joyless shopping destination, Union Square, are boarding up this week in anticipation of opportunistic rio-looting. Some thugs got started early at Coach earlier this week, which was boarded up today.
Image
Image
12:00 AM · Oct 30, 2020
dc CB 17:47:16 GMT - 10/30/2020
I was a nobody tending bar few short years ago, then I won a casting call for The Apprentice THE WHITE HOUSE Season 2, as a member of the Resistance Team. since then it's been quite a ride.
____________________________________________________
AOC’s Next Four Years
The history-making congresswoman addresses her biggest critics, the challenges that loom no matter who wins, and what she’s taking on next.
By Michelle Ruiz
Photography by Tyler Mitcel
October 28. 2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
the shower of headlines and opinions is bound to thicker
-
Why Europe Puts Economic Hopes on a Biden Presidency - Barron's
The stock market’s ‘presidential predictor’ is on cusp of delivering bad news to the Trump campaign - MarketWatch
A Biden win could be good news for Europe. These stocks will benefit the most, strategists say - MarketWatch
About 1,190,000,000 results (0.62 seconds)
How Trump Could Shock the World Again
US election live polls tracker 2020: Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden win the race to be president?
How Trump Can Win the 2020 Election
'People Are Going To Be Shocked': Return of the 'Shy' Trump“Will Biden win the popular vote? Probably. I'm not even debating that. But I think Trump is likely to have an Electoral College victory.”
What are the latest odds on winning? Joe Biden remains the favourite in the next US president betting as he and President Trump enter the ...
Biden vs. Trump: Live Updates - The New York Times
Recent polls suggest Joe Biden has a significant and steady lead over Republican Donald Trump in this year's presidential race in both ...
US election 2020 polls: Who is ahead - Trump or Biden
Biden is favored to win the election - 2020 Election Forecast ...projects.fivethirtyeight.com
At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win.
Trump can still win the US election, despite lagging in the polls
--
So... How to Trade a Political Forex Market ?
"Don't Overstay Your Welcome" - Jay
Mtl JP 17:06:04 GMT - 10/30/2020
trade political
Mtl JP 14:25:10 GMT - 10/24/2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
-
When the U.S. Vote Looks This One-Sided, Contrarian Bets Pay
- Aberdeen’s Athey is buying Treasuries and is long the dollar
- JPMorgan’s risk scenario is a contested vote on Nov. 3
us yields cannot go up much it will be too expensive to service the debt. the fed will keep a cap on yields. only inflation can beat the fed here, but they see what they want to see and will alter baskets to keep it so. big inflation is the kryptonite. otherwise fed wins again.
Israel MacroMicro 08:43:52 GMT - 10/22/2020
with the 10yr
Israel MacroMicro 08:43:35 GMT - 10/22/2020
1%-1.25% spike uP region for the rest of this year?
Mtl JP 08:37:36 GMT - 10/22/2020
for some folks this is how:
Big U.S. Treasuries Wagers Bet Against Election Fireworks
- New Treasury volatility trades bet against significant moves
- Trades pay out if yields are little changed following the vote
The latest big options wagers on Treasuries are bucking the trend of betting on a tempestuous U.S. election. .../.
how the h3ll does one trade (preferably profitably)
"European stocks weakened Thursday after the U.S. accused foreign rivals of election interference, even as progress appears to be made on a new round for stimulus for the U.S. economy and earnings have largely been better than anticipated." .../.
..."A general election nationwide poll by RCP shows a wider 8.6 percentage-point lead for Biden, but the tightening of the race in battleground states may be reviving some anxieties for investors,
I wrote this article six years ago and it is still relevant in today’s forex market, especially in the current politically driven GBP currency.
I define a “political market” as one that is being driven by events other than economic and monetary policy. Some may call it crisis trading but I prefer the term “political markets” as it covers positive as well as negative events although the latter tends to be the more dominant. Political markets can see some significant forex market and other global markets moves so the question is how do you trade them?
ya.. How to Trade a Political Forex Market
zat iz zee kwesh-tion. preferably profitably
-
DLRx 93.27 as I type
i.e still abouve 93.
one of two ways of looking at it:
either political uncertainty drives the DLR uP or
DLR's priceaction reflects micro-adjustements in mood swings about politics - i.e. perception odds of so-called fiscal relief
Mtl JP 07:59:01 GMT - 10/14/2020
Poloz: Bank of Canada close to its policy limits
Bloomberg
Pandemic exposes need for basic income program, expert says
The Canadian Press
China Stocks Stall Near 5-Year High After Xi’s Big Address
(Bloomberg) -- Xi Jinping failed to provide any fresh incentives for stock traders to push Chinese shares to a 5-year high when he delivered a much-anticipated speech in Shenzhen.
Saudi Prince and Putin Urge OPEC+ Compliance as Oil Prices Sag
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, and Russian President Vladimir Putin urged other OPEC+ oil producers to stick with agreed production cuts, as energy prices come under renewed pressure ...
PAR07:32:40 GMT - 10/14/2020
"The focus of global investors is on activity and the way it is potentially affected by the most recent rise in infections, not on price data. ECB president Lagarde, Chief economist Lane, and ECB’s Villeroy will speak. Fed speakers include Clarida, Quarles, and Kaplan. More cautious risk sentiment is driving a ST flattening trend on core bond markets. This (technical) move can still go a bit further especially in the US. EUR/USD is consolidating in a ST 1.1612/1.18 range. In case of a more cautious global sentiment, some further downside EUR/USD drift might be on the cards in a day-to-day perspective. It’s also money-time for the Brexit-negotiators (and thus for sterling) as the October 15 deadline is coming very closer. We stay cautious on sterling as there is no guarantee on meaningful process as this deadline expires.
Mtl JP 07:13:59 GMT - 10/14/2020
this is good one ...
-
Justin Baragona
@justinbaragona
Nancy Pelosi loses it after CNN's Wolf Blitzer grills her on why she can't just call up Trump and hash out a stimulus package.
"With all due respect... you really don’t know what you’re talking about!"
Multiple Virginia state websites shut down because of severed cable, affecting last day of voter registration
Officials said the cable was accidentally struck overnight during work related to a roadside utilities project.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/virginia-state-websites-shut-down/2020/10/13/8e4443d8-0d5d-11eb-b1e8-16b59b92b36d_story.html?
______________________________________
MS-13 members charged in ‘random’ killings of four people in Va., officials say
All those charged were allegedly members of a Prince William County-based clique.
more moRE ... free advice
DLRx 93.13
-
Goldman Sachs says sell the dollar due to the increasing odds of a Biden-led blue wave and progress on COVID-19 vaccine
Here’s why ‘believers in a blue wave’ should dive into junk bonds, says JP Morgan Investment-grade bonds are vulnerable to rising rates
----
Wall Street hopes fade for coronavirus aid before election, but trillions in new spending expected next year
21 protesters arrested in D.C. on first day of Barrett’s Supreme Court confirmation hearings
Protesters on both sides painted a bleak and desperate picture of what would happen if the other side got its way.
... on plastic banknotes ...
one more good reason for digital ????
dc CB 21:56:12 GMT - 10/12/2020
'the fear is great in that one' Yoda (StarWars Episode...)
_____________________________________________________
Reuters: MELBOURNE/SYDNEY (Reuters) - The virus that causes COVID-19 can survive on banknotes, glass and stainless steel for up to 28 days, much longer than the flu virus, Australian researchers said on Monday, highlighting the need for frequent cleaning and handwashing.
Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, appear to show that in a very controlled environment the virus remained infectious for longer than other studies have found.
CSIRO researchers found that at 20 degrees Celsius (68 Fahrenheit), the SARS-CoV-2 virus remained infectious for 28 days on smooth surfaces such as plastic banknotes and the glass found on mobile phone screens. The study was published in Virology Journal.
1)Fifty people were shot, four fatally, since Friday evening across Chicago, according to local police. Five of those, as explained by Chicago Sun-Times, were teenagers.
2)City of New [email protected]
Oct 11, 2020
To keep all of New York City safe, we must work together. The recent COVID outbreaks in Brooklyn and Queens will continue to receive additional FREE resources and strong enforcement.
City of New York
@nycgov
From Friday to now, over $150,000 in fines from 62 summonses were handed out by City agents in the Red, Orange and Yellow zones, including 5 to non-compliant religious congregations.
HK Kevin 18:31:54 GMT - 10/12/2020
Israel MacroMicro 12:05 GMT, better sell USD/CNH above 6.75 (100 pips stop) for 6.7 before the US Presidential Election. Dual wins with price and interest.
Israel MacroMicro 12:05:30 GMT - 10/12/2020
cheers and good luck
let's make some little money
HK Kevin 12:01:48 GMT - 10/12/2020
A market mover for the HK and China stock markets, but not fx.
Israel MacroMicro 11:44:25 GMT - 10/12/2020
thanks Kevin,
what about Wednesday's yakking festival in Shenzhen?
a market mover?
HK Kevin 11:39:27 GMT - 10/12/2020
Israel MacroMicro 10:36 GMT, CNY/CNH is a ccy highly manipulated by the Chinese govt instead of market forces. The latest measure of PBOC may be a signal that the govt don't like CNY/CNH to appreciate too rapidly against USD. I don't think it has any meaningful impact on FX market.
Israel MacroMicro 10:36:57 GMT - 10/12/2020
Kevin, am I looking to the right direction in a search for market moving event?
context of Shenzhen coming Wednesday
Israel MacroMicro 10:22:50 GMT - 10/12/2020
USD/CNH 6.7000 proven to be important junction for medium term.
are we about to break under or to remain within 6.7-7.2 ?
Israel MacroMicro 10:21:00 GMT - 10/12/2020
dual market moving event expected Wednesday China time out the city of Shenzhen. AAA volatility event.
may start strong movement to a direction for some time.
dc CB 19:45:30 GMT - 10/11/2020
Hello Ontario.
“We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,”
WHO urges World Leaders To Stop Using Lockdowns To Fight COVID Contagion
dc CB 15:59:41 GMT - 10/11/2020
Ontario is forcing businesses to close or reduce operations in three major cities after COVID-19 cases hit a record high on the eve of the Canadian Thanksgiving weekend.
Canada’s largest province ordered indoor businesses including bars, gyms, casinos, movie theaters and restaurant dining rooms to close for 28 days, starting Saturday at 12:01 a.m. The measure applies to Toronto, Ottawa and Peel, a suburban region west of Toronto.
The government is also asking residents to leave their homes only for essential trips, Premier Doug Ford said at a news conference that followed an emergency cabinet meeting. He said the province would set aside $300 million (US$228 million) to help affected companies.
“It was the single toughest decision I’ve made since taking office, bar none,” said Ford, who added he was up all night thinking about it.
13 Action News Anchor Ross DiMattei told Biden during a campaign stop in Las Vegas “I know that you said yesterday that you aren’t going to answer the question [about packing the SCOTUS] until after the election, but this is the number one thing I’ve been asked about from viewers in the past couple of days.”
Biden replied. “Well, you’ve been asked by the viewers who are probably Republicans who don’t want me continuing to talk about what they’re doing to the court right now.”
DiMattei replied “Well, sir, don’t the voters deserve to know where you stand…” before he was cut off by Biden, who said “No, they don’t deserve — I’m not going to play his game.”
Mtl JP 08:59:15 GMT - 10/11/2020
this is good one ...
-
"The US federal budget is on an unsustainable path, has been for some time," Powell said. But "this is not the time to give priority to those concerns." - October 6, 2020
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
6 oct.
... "I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business." ...
Trump Says He Now Wants Bigger Stimulus Than Democrats Offering BBRG October 9, 2020
Israel MacroMicro 19:18:37 GMT - 10/10/2020
hopefully POTUS to have a response to a teenager about that. to make clear POTUS is not the real position that makes a difference.
Mtl JP 17:26:19 GMT - 10/10/2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
-
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
The Gallup Poll has just come out with the incredible finding that 56% of you say that you are better off today, during a pandemic, than you were four years ago (OBiden). Highest number on record! Pretty amazing!
11:10 PM · Oct 8, 2020
==
Greta Thunberg
@GretaThunberg
I never engage in party politics. But the upcoming US elections is above and beyond all that.
From a climate perspective it’s very far from enough and many of you of course supported other candidates. But, I mean…you know…damn!
Just get organized and get everyone to vote #Biden
dc CB 13:56:04 GMT - 10/10/2020
PS: a big thing is made of the mail-in voting regarding the Presidential vote, but the real issue/damage/rigging is in the Down Ballot votes, which are won/lost by 10,000 or less.
House of Representatives, state govs, reps, senators, judges, sheriffs, school board members(win/loss less then 500 votes) ***the very people who decide what kids are taught in K-12 schools and with Covid IF schools can even open... with sports, county commissioners, county executives...all these positions that have a dierct effect on people's lives, much more than who gets to sit in the Oval Office.
dc CB 13:25:18 GMT - 10/10/2020
'manufactured chaos' or 'too stupid to be stupid'
24days away.
This week is another OPEX week in Stocks. not as yuge as Septs QuadWitch, bu since Options have now been recognized by the FinPress as movers the underlying, worth noting.
__________________________________
Just under 50,000 voters in Ohio received incorrect absentee ballots, according to a Friday announcement by elections officials.(ZH)
According to Franklin County, 49,669 voters out of 237,498 - or just over 20%, received ballots which contained an incorrect congressional race. Others had the correct information but were inadvertently mailed to voters in the wrong precinct, according to Politico.
"The process to print, stuff the replacement ballots in envelopes and mail them was underway Friday, the Franklin County Elections Board announced.
The board also said it will mail postcards to all affected voters detailing the situation and highlighting voters’ options moving forward. Those options include voting in-person at the board’s offices on the city’s north side.
The elections board said multiple checks are in place to ensure only one voter can cast a ballot, including rejecting any replacement ballots if someone went ahead and voted in person." -Politico
Mtl JP 11:41:56 GMT - 10/10/2020
CB 23:57 and DJT prognosticates:
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
19h
Crazy Nancy Pelosi is looking at the 25th Amendment in order to replace Joe Biden with Kamala Harris. The Dems want that to happen fast because Sleepy Joe is out of it!!!
Mtl JP 11:34:28 GMT - 10/10/2020
Gold 1929.60
DLRx 92.99
-
d'u need essplaining ?
Mtl JP 10:42:37 GMT - 10/10/2020
United States' indirect democracy:
total of 538 electors make up the Electoral College
getting 270 or more votes makes a winner
dc CB 15:42 GMT 10/09/2020
Update (1015ET): Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Raskin unveiled new legislation that would create a standing commission of lawmakers which would help Congress and the Vice President handle the invocation of the 25th amendment when the president isn't able to serve.
___________________________________________________
Thought on the Pelosi/Raskin Legislation - 25th Amend...'fitness of the President.
The initial reaction is that this is about removing Trump because of his Covid infection.
Perhaps this is actually about Biden, when the Bdien/Harris ticket takes the Oval Office prize. The standing 'Commission' would make the removal of Biden and the install of Kamila Harris as President.
Worst script for that movie: Kam Harris then steps aside and Nancy Pelosi becomes POTUS - a the Speaker of the House is the Third in line.
Good WE al
Cheersl
Mtl JP 22:44:54 GMT - 10/09/2020
(CNN 6:38 PM ET, Fri October 9, 2020) The Commission on Presidential Debates on Friday canceled the second debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden after the President declined to do a virtual debate despite concerns over his Covid-19 diagnosis, a source familiar with the plans told CNN.
dc CB 18:06:29 GMT - 10/09/2020
MacroMicro
rally the markets now when it is clear
___________________
PS a better question to ask is Why are 'they' destroying NYC--home to millions of liberal democrats---solidly Blue to put it in political jargon.
"Absolutely Crushed" - Broadway Theater Shutdown Extended Until Next Spring "...a different kind of painful."
dc CB 17:03:09 GMT - 10/09/2020
MacroMicro
rally the markets now when it is clear as the sun that next 2-3 to bring lower levels than March
_______________________________
???????????????????????????????
I guess you mean 2-3 Years there.
Maybe because...the market does not reflect reality(see TSLA Wirecard,etc)- it is a propaganda tool. They are makeing boatloads of money Now. They will make boatloads more on the downside. Downside means More Free Money = boatloads....
2-3 years is a long long long time --- unless you are a worker bee who needs to save to buy stuff, like a house and college for your kids, a car, and fuel...etc. Then you will be hosed.
dc CB 16:46:53 GMT - 10/09/2020
Update (1215ET): The White House has reportedly increased its COVID-Aid package total size to $1.8 trillion (compared to Democrats' $2.2 trillion, down from their earlier $3.5 trillion offer).
Mitch McConnell says he "doesn't know if there'll be a deal or not."
Politico says The White House and Congress will work on the deal through the weekend.
Mtl JP 16:07:31 GMT - 10/09/2020
kudlow schmudlow
Forex 12:33 scooped it first
GVI Forex15:56:18 GMT - 10/09/2020
Stocks pop after Kudlow says Trump wants a stimulus deal.
Israel MacroMicro 15:50:27 GMT - 10/09/2020
I cannot imagine that anyone believes to Trump and/or Pelosi, this surrealistic situation is seconds from the end. imo
Israel MacroMicro 15:48:25 GMT - 10/09/2020
2-3 years
Israel MacroMicro 15:47:49 GMT - 10/09/2020
CB
serious question from someone (me) not familiar so well with the dynamics of US politics.
I think it is very clear that taxes will get raised in USA, so why the "whales" prefer to rally the markets now when it is clear as the sun that next 2-3 to bring lower levels than March 2020?
dc CB 15:42:31 GMT - 10/09/2020
Update (1015ET): Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Raskin unveiled new legislation that would create a standing commission of lawmakers which would help Congress and the Vice President handle the invocation of the 25th amendment when the president isn't able to serve.
The proposed panel, called the Commission on Presidential Capacity to Discharge the Powers and Duties of Office, would be "the body and process called for in the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution," Pelosi and Raskin's offices said in a joint statement.
Insisting that this is "not about Trump" (the voters will judge him imminently, Pelosi said), she nevertheless claimed that Trump's infection set off a "crisis" which has underlined just how critical this type of a commission is. She added that it would be
"This is not about Trump...but he shows the need for us to create a process for future presidents."
dc CB 15:40:36 GMT - 10/09/2020
Pelosi's friday presser ----Yah now it's the 25th Amendent (wasn't that tried before, like a couple of years ago.??)
Jake Sherman
@JakeSherman
>@mkraju just asked pelosi if it was time to invoke the 25th amendment
@SpeakerPelosi said she’ll talk about that tomorrow
Stay tuned, i guess?
CSPAN
@cspan [email protected]: "Tomorrow, by the way, tomorrow, come here tomorrow. We're going to be talking about the 25th Amendment."
Full video here: https://cs.pn/33Gx7B1
In an email to Congressional reporters, Pelosi advised them of a press briefing that will be held at 1015ET on Friday to introduce a new bill called the Commission on Presidential Capacity to Discharge the Powers and Duties of Office Act.
Manu Raju
@mkraju
New - Pelosi and Raskin to introduce bill creating a commission to review President’s health and fitness for office. This is what she was referring to when she referred to 25th Amendment. She’s having a press conference tomorrow
dc CB 20:26:46 GMT - 10/08/2020
Oct 08, 2020 3:30 PM
........... rioters did not just target stores.
A small apartment complex was then targeted, with people again throwing rocks through the windows. This time other people in the crowd begged the agitators to stop because that was too far even for them. It only stopped after some ran up to prevent more destruction, but by then the damage was already done.
October 08, 2020 04:09 PM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country is preparing for potential disruptions if the winner of the U.S. presidential election is not immediately clear.
“What happens in the United States is going to be impacting Canada after the election, but our job is to be ready for all outcomes,” Trudeau said Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
While focusing on the US trade deficit, Trump at the same time exploded the budget deficit during the best economy the US has ever seen.
Is Trump planning a US debt restructuring
Argentinian style during his second term?
dc CB 16:22:03 GMT - 10/07/2020
James Rickards,
If Trump wins, he may actually be able to finish his task of cleaning out Deep State actors, reducing regulation and taxes, securing U.S. energy independence, facilitating peace in the Middle East and finally bringing U.S. troops home from multi-decade wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If Biden wins, brace yourself for higher taxes, the end of fracking, the Green New Deal, free tuition, free healthcare and free child care (of course, none of this is truly “free,” it’s just paid for with more debt financed by higher taxes or more money printing).
In a Trump administration, the decoupling from China will continue, and China’s ability to spy on the U.S. and steal our best ideas will be curtailed.
If Biden wins, it will be back to business as usual with China stealing U.S. jobs, stealing U.S. intellectual property and cheating on their obligations to the World Trade Organization and the IMF.
________________________________________________
As Ed Sullivan used to say, every Sunday night on his Sheo 8PM CBS Television Network....'a really BIG SHOW'
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Move Fast, I Am Waiting To Sign! @SpeakerPelosi
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy? @MarkMeadows @senatemajldr @kevinomccarthy @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer
9:11 AM · Oct 7, 2020
dc CB 16:13:01 GMT - 10/07/2020
The View
@TheView [email protected] tells @TheView Pres. Trump made a “terrible mistake” when he announced he was calling coronavirus relief negotiations off until after the election and changed course because he “saw the political downside of his statement of walking away.” https://abcn.ws/33Ejsu9
11:34 AM · Oct 7, 2020
dc CB 15:49:25 GMT - 10/07/2020
Two people 'we wish would just go away': Boris and The Donald.
So far no luck, for the People Who Pull The Strings. Even COVID failed to do the trick.
Brexit and The US Election, four years is a long time to wait to correct that slip-up, failing to stop these two from coming into power, but soon-soon-soon, it may all get back on track to One-World-Landia.
Warms your heart, does it not?
dc CB 15:26:17 GMT - 10/07/2020
Trump's top reTweet of the day.
(it's all part of the show...or said in the style of Ed Sullivan: 'we've got a really big sheeeooo for you'
Trump earned the honor to get volatility indicator on his name
Mtl JP 08:55:06 GMT - 10/07/2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
- Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
7h
I have fully authorized the total Declassification of any & all documents pertaining to the single greatest political CRIME in American History, the Russia Hoax. Likewise, the Hillary Clinton Email Scandal. No redactions!
---
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
6h
If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?
How? "go with the flow but DON'T OVERSTAY YOUR WELCOME" - Jay
Mtl JP 23:40:17 GMT - 10/06/2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
OR
how a politician's statement can either take from or add to one's account
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DJ: 27,773 -376 -1.34%
SP: 3,661 -48 -1.40%
in other words: fast as a cobra's strike
"go with the flow but DON'T OVERSTAY YOUR WELCOME" - Jay
dc CB 22:57:38 GMT - 10/04/2020
US Auctions this week.
3s, 10s, 30s. 52, 35, 23Bln. Tues, Wed, Thurs
Mtl JP 22:38:32 GMT - 10/04/2020
current stocks geopolitical pricing
Mtl JP 21:36:59 GMT - 10/04/2020
Investopedia:
Systemic Risk vs. Systematic Risk: What's the Difference?
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Systemic risk describes an event that can spark a major collapse in a specific industry or the broader economy. Systematic risk is the pervasive, far-reaching, perpetual market risk that reflects a variety of troubling factors.
Systematic risk (often used interchangeably with "market risk") is the overall, day-to-day, ongoing risk that can be caused by a combination of factors, including the economy, interest rates, geopolitical issues, corporate health, and other factors.
Benny
@bennyjohnson
New York is closing down again.
Just a preview of what Biden would do.
NBC New York
@NBCNewYork
#BREAKING: Mayor de Blasio, pending approval from state, announces plans to close non-essential businesses, public and private schools in nine ZIP codes starting Wednesday in an attempt to contain COVID clusters http://4.nbcny.com/z9RzsN8
1:43 PM · Oct 4, 2020
Mtl JP 19:39:56 GMT - 10/04/2020
How to Trade Political Market
with Navy Cmdr. Dr. Sean Conley
and as confused as a fart in a fan factory
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... "I was trying to reflect the upbeat attitude of the team, that the president, that his course of illness has had. Didn't want to give any information that might steer the course of illness in another direction," Conley said. "And in doing so, came off like we're trying to hide something, which wasn't necessarily true. The fact of the matter is that he's doing really well." ...
dc CB 20:28:31 GMT - 10/01/2020
oeing's decades-long ties to Washington state could soon be numbered.
In a massive blow to Seattle, labor unions and the liberal run state of Washington, Boeing is moving its 787 Dreamliner production to South Carolina in an effort to cut costs, Bloomberg revealed on Thursday.
It is a move that is raising questions about how long Boeing may remain at its massive plant in Everett, where it has produced planes since the 1960s.
__________________________________________________
Golly gee, ys think this has anything to do with CHAZ/CHOP, defunding the police, hiring an exPimp for $150K a year(plus an office) by the mayor/Seattle City Council...nah.
dc CB 17:10:13 GMT - 10/01/2020
Benny @bennyjohnson
REMINDER: Twitter Censored the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES for saying he would Enforce the Law.
Meanwhile this is the Former CEO of Twitter
at least Biden get to hawk his new T-shirt design---hot seller, no doubt.
Israel MacroMicro 17:04:20 GMT - 09/30/2020
to be sharper, there was no single moment they both discussed anything that impacts lives of 300++ million Americans.
they both were busy about own poor selves. tragedy for Americans when you think bit further.
Israel MacroMicro 17:00:21 GMT - 09/30/2020
CB 13:28
no value for analysis about opinions that change with the direction of the wind.
I still cannot realize any of the two executing a policy with lifespan longer than of a fart.
dc CB 16:29:53 GMT - 09/30/2020
('teach your children well' CSNY song from the 70's)
Lower the voting age to 16!
Meet the Future Leaders of Our Country/World.????
Ohio’s Case Western Reserve University (CWRU), the site of last night’s Presidential debate has set up dedicated ‘support spaces’ for students who have been triggered by the tense exchange.
The University says “students can discuss the impact of recent national events, including the presidential debate and upcoming election.”
There are eight “presidential debate support spaces” available for students to attend, according to the university which asks that everybody use “respectful dialogue.”
The spaces will remain active from Monday through to next Friday, for ‘virtual counselling sessions’.
The university announced that the “Support Space is not a substitute for psychotherapy and does not constitute mental health treatment.”
.
HK Kevin 14:29:33 GMT - 09/30/2020
Save my bullets in this manipulated market
dc CB 13:28:40 GMT - 09/30/2020
Israel MacroMicro 11:19 GMT
am I the only one still trying to understand what actually said
____________________________
one view(and one thing I caught), which together do not bode well for things getting back to 'normal' ---whatever normal means anymore.
_______________________________________________
In sum, amid all the sound and fury of the debate, these two important points emerged:
(1) If he wins, Biden will almost certainly sign off on ending the filibuster to pack the courts and add two new states for a permanent Democrat majority that will leave the Constitution behind.
(2) Trump may have announced that he's about to reveal that the Democrats, from Obama on down, engaged in a coup against an American president.
am I the only one still trying to understand what actually said in the debate as policy planning for the next presidency term?
Mtl JP 03:14:33 GMT - 09/30/2020
Proof of Jay's "go with the flow but DON�T OVERSTAY YOUR WELCOME" concept. Half hour later.
Mtl JP 02:48:24 GMT - 09/30/2020
How equities were pricing the debate right up to the last minute.
How enduring it will be is to remember Jay's "go with the flow but DON’T OVERSTAY YOUR WELCOME" i.e. the effect on one's betting's success
Mtl JP 23:38:49 GMT - 09/29/2020
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
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1) one has to figure out if the market is indeed Political
so the burning question ahead of biden / trump debate is:
Is the Market Political ?
2) we ll probably know either at some point during or post the spectacle in the form of uP or DOwn reaction in "risk" assets
an uP reaction - IF it occurs - should be reflective of market perception of biden scoring a K.O. win on trump - i.e. a Dem seizing power.
S&P500 at 3335.00 currently.
Mtl JP 22:45:29 GMT - 09/24/2020
CB 21:20 whatever happened to biden so as not choose best possible brain ability for the best interest of the country regardless of gender or race ?
dc CB 21:20:57 GMT - 09/24/2020
Bloomberg reports that Joe Biden is focusing on Fed governor Lael Brainard as his Treasury Secretary pick "a choice that would keep both Wall Street and progressives in line." Lael's political bias first emerged in early 2016 when it was revealed that she had donated repeatedly to the Hillary Clinton campaign, rather odd for an "apolitical" Fed governor but sufficient to telegraph her ideological affiliation to the Biden campaign.
Biden's focus on Brainard is further prompted by his desire to signal his sexual equality virtue: as Bloomberg notes, "the former vice president wants to make a historic choice for the job that has always been held by a White man, some of the people said."
(ZH)
dc CB 21:15:15 GMT - 09/24/2020
Trump anncs his nominee for the SCOTUS ---This Saturday.
dc CB 21:11:55 GMT - 09/24/2020
IMHO - the first big Test will come after Trump anncs his nominee for the SCOTUS ---
The worst case for the Markets?
If ANY nomination is successfully blocked and the Court goes into the contested election with 8 justices rather than the full 9 on the bench when the contested election goes to the Supreme Court .....
So Risk is on for Friday and Monday --- the NUZ will be screaming high-pitched all weekend...esp the Sunday Show 'expert' hystericals.
dc CB 20:57:12 GMT - 09/24/2020
Mtl JP 18:08 GMT
Jay... are we in a Political Market yet ?
Why stock-market investors are starting to freak out about the 2020 election
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Early mail-in voting 'sheitstorm' preview....yes, it's still only September.
______________________________________
Police in the swing-state of Wisconsin are investigating how three trays of mail which included absentee ballots ended up in a ditch, after the mail was found at 8 a.m. Tuesday morning near a highway before it was immediately turned over to the US Postal Service, according to Fox 11.
"The United States Postal Inspection Service immediately began investigating and we reserve further comment on this matter until that is complete," said USPS spokesman Bob Sheehan in a statement.
The incident comes a mere five weeks before the presidential election, which has been steeped in partisan bickering over the system of mail-in and absentee ballots and wavering trust in the alternate system.
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, which marked a grim milestone this week of over 200,000 deaths in the U.S., voters are expected to cast ballots by mail in record numbers.
“We expect more than 3 million Wisconsin residents to vote in the November election, which means even more first-time absentee by mail voters,” Meagan Wolfe, the elections commission’s administrator, said in a statement earlier this month.
Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, the FBI and the office of the United States Attorney found nine discarded mail-in ballots from members of the military, all cast for President Trump.
According to the DOJ:
Since Monday, FBI personnel working together with the Pennsylvania State Police have conducted numerous interviews and recovered and reviewed certain physical evidence. Election officials in Luzerne County have been cooperative. At this point we can confirm that a small number of military ballots were discarded. Investigators have recovered nine ballots at this time. Some of those ballots can be attributed to specific voters and some cannot. All nine ballots were cast for presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Jay... are we in a Political Market yet ?
- goldman "explains" stocks are heaving because of lack of clarity about "support"
- jerome claims approximtely the same thing
- and various FED lower mandarins claiming conflicting "visions" about policy/economy
=
‘Vote him out!’ President Trump booed during visit to RBG’s casket
- MarketWatch
How to Trade a Political Forex Market
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Here is an added element ("the largest election protection program in presidential campaign history"):
the Biden campaign is bracing for an extended legal battle and hoping to maintain trust in the electoral process.
Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s campaign is establishing a major new legal operation, bringing in two former solicitors general and hundreds of lawyers in what the campaign billed as the largest election protection program in presidential campaign history.
Update (1130ET): For the first time in nearly 100 years, New York City will not play host to the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. The iconic parade, which draws tourists from all over the world to pack the streets of Manhattan with its floats and performances, has officially been cancelled by Mayor Bill de Blasio.
The mayor announced the decision during a Monday press conference
Mtl JP 14:58:02 GMT - 09/14/2020
PAR would you say that they are rather competent at masking their alleged incompetence from everyone except your eagle eye ?
PAR14:51:53 GMT - 09/14/2020
With an internal market of 450 million people most of the European trade is in Euro and the impact of the rise of the EURO on those activities is NIHIL.
All those speeches about the strength of the Euro are just another smokescreen to mask incompetence.
Mtl JP 14:42:42 GMT - 09/14/2020
most
- ..." most politically driven markets tend to have short shelf lives."...
"To keep it simple, the answer is to go with the flow but DON’T OVERSTAY YOUR WELCOME. This means don’t hold out for the last pip for when the focus shifts, the reaction can be swift."
GBP 1.2874
and ref my JP 09:17 for my "keep it simple: don’t hold out for the last pip" tactical:
I note friday 1.2763 low and 200 day 1.2731 as Support
GVI Forex Blog 11:22:43 GMT - 09/14/2020
I wrote this article six years ago and it is still relevant in today’s forex market, especially in the current politically driven GBP currency.
I define a “political market” as one that is being driven by events other than economic and monetary policy. Some may call it crisis trading but I prefer the term “political markets” as it covers positive as well as negative events although the latter tends to be the more dominant. Political markets can see some significant forex market and other global markets moves so the question is how do you trade them?
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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