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haifa ac  07:09:31 GMT - 11/01/2020  
a month and a half ago I wrote:
haifa ac 11:51:21 GMT - 09/18/2020
There must be a number that will finally shake someone.
I bet on 250,000.
This Corona is NOT going away and if we keep ignoring it and scoff at social distancing--it till continue.

well, we are at 230k and the infection rate is indeed exponential.
The virus is going NOWHERE!!! it only multiplies.
If Trump wins--expect millions to die. Simple mathematical progression!
As a poor bridge player I bid you NO TRUMP!


haifa ac  09:38:22 GMT - 09/20/2020  
Turns out it was "predicted" in March:

"In the predawn hours of March 30, Dr. Deborah Birx stepped in front of the camera on the White House lawn and made an alarming prediction about the coronavirus, which had, by then, killed fewer than 3,000 people in the United States.

"If we do things together, well, almost perfectly, we can get in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities," Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, told Savannah Guthrie of NBC News' "Today" show."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/u-s-covid-19-death-toll-surpasses-200-000-n1240034

What the acute doctor did not grasp is that the curve does not stop, only increases exponentially. I still think that there will be a number that will be a game changer.


Mtl JP  16:20:49 GMT - 09/18/2020  
so if I understand it is that those politicians and scientists that are trying to protect the weak and feable ("elderly and those with other triggers") are doing so at great societal cost as the pandemic will eventually naturally peter out as immunity will build up within the communities itself as children are less likely to get infected.

and probably for longer and more excrutiatingly than otherwise nature would take had she been left alone to do its thing.


Johannesburg Hvw  15:32:46 GMT - 09/18/2020  
It depends on the virus and how it is spread i.e. the 2 most virulent (causing death) viruses are Influenza B and -A in that order. They take a 3-week cycle every year and they are gone. People dying from what is now an easily treated disease can also run into thousands and we have never really bothered about that, because vaccines became available, until now that is.
Virologists are convinced that the Coronavirus will be part of the group that re-appear every year and some are saying that it would not go away at all. The general consensus of opinion seems to be that immunity will have to build up within the communities itself as children are less likely to get infected, but the elderly and those with other triggers such as diabetes and being overweight (to name only 2) will be more susceptible and, of course, may succumb from it.
There are trials going on at present and none seem to be effective enough to get to manufacturing stage.


Mtl JP  14:50:14 GMT - 09/18/2020  
why "250,000" ? (is that for Israel?)
-
In Nature, what are the typical numbers that a pandemic goes thru from hatching to growth to pandemic to a decline to ultimately POOF! disappear ?



london red  13:34:44 GMT - 09/18/2020  
these longer term effects are much more likely if there is an underlying condition. obesity is one of those too.


NY JM  13:17:58 GMT - 09/18/2020  
The issue is more than fatalities. Many who had it have had long-lasting lingering effects and I assume this is not reserved for just the elderly.


london red  13:13:13 GMT - 09/18/2020  
while it only affects the old and those with underlying problems, it will be tough to get the majority of folks to fall in line with government regs. uk is locking down a few regions for up to two weeks from tuesday, this may or may not affect sterling.


haifa ac  11:51:21 GMT - 09/18/2020  
There must be a number that will finally shake someone.
I bet on 250,000.
This Corona is NOT going away and if we keep ignoring it and scoff at social distancing--it till continue.






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