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AT Trader john  09:08:41 GMT - 11/04/2020  
Personal Observations:
There has been no resolution yet to the U.S. Presidential election. We do know for certain that there was no "Blue Wave" victory for the Democrats, because as usual the polls were wrong. Changes in the House and Senate will likely be minimal. The Democrats will continue to control the House while the Republicans are likely to continue to control the Senate. As for the Presidency, that race is too close to call. Hopefully that race could be called by the end of the week. That is by no means certain.

U.S. equity markets are now recovering from losses suffered initially when Biden did not win early last night.

The Risk-ON trade (selling USD) was unwound initially and since then EURUSD had recovered. EURGBP is higher as well.



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PAR 08:17:02 GMT - 11/04/2020  
By Paul Donovan
Wednesday 04 November
The waiting game

There will be a delay before the US election outcomes are known. Pennsylvania may take a couple of days to give its presidential result (because why hurry?), and of course lawyers are getting involved. The composition of the Senate may not be known until the end of today.

Markets are likely to focus on actual votes, and actual law suits, rather than on announcements from either candidate.

Investors should not look to betting markets for guidance. Betting is plutocratic rather than democratic. Betting requires passion (as there is a potential personal loss), while a blasť vote counts the same as a passionate vote at the ballot box.

The election results so far indicate a continued polarisation of US politics. That is troubling for the longer term. Making the US fiscal deficit sustainable will eventually need compromise. Economic success in the fourth industrial revolution needs less prejudice, and thus less polarisation.

Investors' near term focus is around fiscal policy. A fiscal stimulus before the end of this year is plausible if US President Trump is re-elected, unlikely if former US Vice-President Biden is elected. The scale of fiscal stimulus in 2021 is likely to depend on the Senate races and whether there is divided government.


AT Trader john  08:14:27 GMT - 11/04/2020  
Wednesday: MIXED RISK
DJ: 27,370 -284
SP: 3,361 -16
NQ: 11,388 +146

2-yr 0.155% -1.3 bp
Spread 10s-2s +62.0 bp (+70.9)
10-yr

US: 0.775% -1.1 bp
UK: 0.274% +0.1 bp
DE: -0.662% -0.4 bp

EURUSD MACRO TREND: NEGATIVE
Spots (Pivot Point prev day)
EURUSD 1.1658 (1.1693)
GBPUSD 1.2933 (1.3002)
EURGBP 0.8905 (0.8992)
USDJPY 104.57 (104.61)

THIS Week 1.1771-1.1603 (168 pips)
wed: 1.1771-1.1603 (168)
tue: 1.1740-1.1636 (104)
mon: 1.1656-1.1623 (23)
fri 1.1705-1.1640 (65)
thu: 1.1760-1.1650 (110)

20-d avg: 1.1768
50-day avg: 1.1780
100-day avg: 1.1672
200-day avg: 1.1327

Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points







AT Trader john  07:50:33 GMT - 11/04/2020  
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Wed 4 Nov 2020
Final Service PMIs all day
AA 03:30 AU- RBA Decision
A 08:55 DE- Employment
A 10:00 EZ- PPI
A 13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 13:30 US/CA- Trade
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 5 Mov 2020
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 13:30 US- Productivity
AA 19:00 US- Fed Decision
Fri 5 Nov 2020
A 13:30 US/CA- Employment




Israel MacroMicro  19:20:35 GMT - 11/03/2020  
some want the two walking catastrophes and paying for that

no inflation



AT Trader john  18:20:47 GMT - 11/03/2020  
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Wed 4 Nov 2020
Final Service PMIs all day
AA 03:30 AU- RBA Decision
A 08:55 DE- Employment
A 10:00 EZ- PPI
A 13:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 13:30 US/CA- Trade
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 5 Mov 2020
AA 12:00 GB- BOE Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 13:30 US- Productivity
AA 19:00 US- Fed Decision
Fri 5 Nov 2020
A 13:30 US/CA- Employment







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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