which is why counter trend trades if profitable, need to be closed with a profit before it disappears
Minneapolis DRS2 19:23:46 GMT - 12/03/2020
I agree, on EUR/USD for example the recent "sell" episodes are shorter and weaker than the "buy" episodes.
lakewood jjlkwd 19:19:10 GMT - 12/03/2020
DRS2 i see also counter trend signals are weaker ,last shorter and have less pip potential than the trending ones...so even with AT not all episodes are equal....
lakewood jjlkwd 19:11:08 GMT - 12/03/2020
JP this time its general usd weakness as opposed to euro strength, so ECB is being quiet.
or those bozos are so caught up in the brexit deal to not have noticed....!!!
lakewood jjlkwd 19:11:08 GMT - 12/03/2020
JP this time its general usd weakness as opposed to euro strength, so ECB is being quiet.
or those bozos are so caught up in the brexit deal to not have noticed....!!!
Minneapolis DRS2 18:57:33 GMT - 12/03/2020
The only thing you can really do as a trader under these conditions is to trade your bias and cut off the losers fast. With that said, you really need to be sure of what your bias is and your timeframe. It's all too easy to get your timeframes and episodes (to use an AT term) mixed up. This will really kill your account, especially on anything involving USD, because price is oscillating so much.
Mtl JP 18:33:09 GMT - 12/03/2020
jjlkwd - "had people on the wrong side "
-
not so, imo. DLR's down move has been rather quick and the buck remains under pressure. As Jay keeps pointing out that FX is not a straight line: a risk of yr-end squeeze of DLR shorts cannot be ignored even as I see low odds (little reasons) for a turn uP into yr-end. Including no opposing noises from the ECB about their euro running N of 1.20, at least sofar.
I am using euro 1.21 (close basis) to set my bias.
lakewood jjlkwd 17:50:19 GMT - 12/03/2020
Euro breakout and gold breakdown were both obvious on the charts (in theory gold would/should go up with falling usd), and yet both moves had people on the wrong side so... trade 'em like you see 'em.
Israel MacroMicro 15:55:21 GMT - 12/03/2020
USD sellers and indices buyers much too noisey for my liking, totally defensive from here for 4-6 sessions from now.
Israel MacroMicro 15:51:55 GMT - 12/03/2020
NQ: now @ 12490 (per 12530 shorts) adjusting exposure for risk.
lucky I guess :)
Israel MacroMicro 15:50:07 GMT - 12/03/2020
GBP/AUD @ 1.8140 (per 1.8035 longs)
trailing a stop from here with humbles gains booked
Bali Sja 15:45:32 GMT - 12/03/2020
Buying usd before DX 88 is just absurd.
Israel MacroMicro 15:31:40 GMT - 12/03/2020
sold NQ @ 12530 with 12470 target for the scalp portion
Israel MacroMicro 14:35:26 GMT - 12/03/2020
GVI Forex 14:30
bless you! your opinion is more than enough for me.
the risk management and finding the right levels on me.
thank you again!
GVI Forex14:30:56 GMT - 12/03/2020
Israel MacroMicro 13:17 GMT 12/03/2020
In the good old days, we found breakouts typically lasted 2-1/2 days. That makes mid-day today a pivotal time. Times have changed but something to keep in mind.'
With that said, guessing at a correction is just that, guesswork. I prefer to let the Amazing Trader patterns tell me when the risk has shifted.
I also look at what I call magic levels, which become important when there are no key levels nearby to act as targets. In this regard, watch 1.22 as the upside will stall unless it is taken out.
Israel MacroMicro 13:20:03 GMT - 12/03/2020
let me be bit cleared, the manner gold tested the 200D MA must happen with USD pairs too. why not during Q1/2021 ?
this is nothing to do with scalping :)
Israel MacroMicro 13:17:04 GMT - 12/03/2020
Jay, John,
from your experience with the markets, when all (literally all) saying and advocating for the same theme for 2021 (weak USD), how long it takes until a healthy correction takes place?
the whole world screaming about weak USD during 2021, all recommending to sell USD now and no matter the price. I start to calculate reasonable healthy correction during Q1/2021 with 1.15-1.25 setup for the positional trading. am I dead wrong? am I much too early?
Israel MacroMicro 12:49:16 GMT - 12/03/2020
in general
I am scaling out today from some short USD positions due to currently extreme deviations. just to reload the coming days.
with that said, the greed factor is under control and I avoid going long USD towards those reload levels.
good luck to you all
perth wtr 12:10:45 GMT - 12/03/2020
no doubt, 142-145
Israel MacroMicro 12:06:36 GMT - 12/03/2020
GBP/JPY @ 140+
as long above 139 area, the upside is sole option for now
imo
perth wtr 11:59:11 GMT - 12/03/2020
yeah, the way cable trade, looks like post deal announcement even if there is a dip it will be limited
Israel MacroMicro 11:58:43 GMT - 12/03/2020
sja, why I am near certain that you are not surprised about GBP and you are simply following the PLAN ?
bali sja 11:55:50 GMT - 12/03/2020
even the supposedly unwanted child from the pack, gold, is supported against usd, that tells you everything about usd, follow the trend
bali sja 11:53:01 GMT - 12/03/2020
well new high for cable even without brexit fear
Israel MacroMicro 11:29:10 GMT - 12/03/2020
Israel MacroMicro 09:06 GMT December 3, 2020
Thursday Amazing Trader 3 December 2020: Reply
Buy GBPAUD
Entry: 1.8035 Target: Stop:
Observations:
One of Jay's axioms, most of them are very insightful, is that major FX break-outs tend last 2-1/2 days. So keep an eye on whether the EURUSD MIGHT be getting a bit over extended in the very short run.
Brexit, Brexit, Brexit... Will it ever end? The hard deadline (December 31) is nearly at hand. treat any press comments with care. Everyone is talking their book.
EURUSD is well off its HOD use the 1.2100 line as pivotal. The 0.9000 line is key psychological support in EURGBP.
Keep an eye on U.S. Weekly jobless Claims later as any weakness in the economy should emerge there first. The same is true for the ISM Services PMI today as well.
U.S. equities have been showing some rotation out of the NASDAQ into the S&P. The S&P is the more important index for traders.
USDCAD is up strongly today while the AUDUSD ia a bit weaker.
Thu 3 Dec 2019
Final Service PMIs all day A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 4 Dec 2019 AA 13:30 US/CA- Employment A 13:30 US/CA- Trade A 15:00 US- Factory Orders
Mon 7 DEC 2020
No Major Data Tue 8 Dec 2020 AA 10:00 EZ- GDP A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 9 DEC 2020 AA 15:30 CA- BOC Decision B 15:00 US- JOLTS A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
dc CB 23:05:13 GMT - 12/02/2020
The Bond Market reacted to President Elect Biden naming Janet-not I get to print the money-Yellen as Treasury(the printing press)Secy, pushing yields on the 10Y to 0.948% at the CASH Close.
Thu 2 Dec 2019
Final Service PMIs all day A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Dec 2019 AA 13:30 US/CA- Employment A 13:30 US/CA- Trade A 15:00 US- Factory Orders
Mon 7 DEC 2020
No Major Data Tue 8 Dec 2020 AA 10:00 EZ- GDP A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 9 DEC 2020 AA 15:30 CA- BOC Decision B 15:00 US- JOLTS A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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