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Belgrade Knez  07:25:55 GMT - 12/04/2020  
Is brexit deal announcement scheduled for 31st December or some date earlier?

kl fs  07:59:42 GMT - 12/04/2020  
they will leave it till very late, this is all gonna be last minute rush, cant see it coming earlier

kl fs  08:03:31 GMT - 12/04/2020  
testing long cable 13433, previous resistance turned support

kl fs  08:13:18 GMT - 12/04/2020  
lovely, out 13460 for quick 27 pips

london red  08:50:46 GMT - 12/04/2020  
getting closer to no deal. eu officially saying it will not budge (michel). down to the uk. and boris. i doubt he can sell a deal of leaving eu and getting nothing. no deal chance is growing. they cant let it run much past mid dec.

kl fs  09:05:38 GMT - 12/04/2020  
looks like cable's downside reaction is always limited, opportunity to buy every dips
maybe usd weakness is more predominant theme?

london red  09:09:17 GMT - 12/04/2020  
mkt believes there will be a deal til they tell them there isnt. thats how it always works. buying dips will work until they come and and say no deal, then everyone will try to leave longs at once...

kl fs  09:20:35 GMT - 12/04/2020  
red, yes i agree, but if they manage to push it as high as possible say 1.40, then maybe the picture will be different aftermath compared to say if it stays around 1.34?

Mtl JP  09:28:01 GMT - 12/04/2020  
The Guardian
Brexit talks falter as UK claims EU is hardening negotiating stance
22 hours ago

BBC News
Brexit: ‘Breakthrough still possible’ as UK-EU trade talks resume
1 hour ago
Politics latest news: France threatens to veto Brexit deal
15 mins ago

Jay... how do you trade a political ccy again ?

kl shawn  09:28:15 GMT - 12/04/2020  
given the series of headlines we have seen, it should have spooked the market if market has been expecting a deal and we wont be at 1.34, so maybe a worst case scenario has been priced in anyway?

kl shawn  09:30:00 GMT - 12/04/2020  
JP, so the way euro is trading though, it will get the best out of this situation until ECB complains?

AT Trader john  09:34:34 GMT - 12/04/2020  
Maybe I am naďve, but this looks to me like an intentional effort by the EU to sabotage the Brexit talks??

Am I wrong??

london red  09:39:56 GMT - 12/04/2020  
shawn the worst case scenario is euro sterling parity. nothing has been priced in except a deal at around 85-90% probability. even if there is a deal it will be bare bones and sterling will initially climb 3-5% yet finish down on the day as it has already been largely priced in. the downside has not even been looked at. no deal means wto terms and tariffs on goods

london red  09:43:43 GMT - 12/04/2020  
john, the eu is sticking to its 4 pillars and has every right. compromising here will open a can of worms for the future - anyone wanting to leave will know the eu can be compromised. for the good of the future of the eu, the eu cannot budge. as for the uk, it is also within its rights to get what it can. but bare bones is certainly worse than what they have now. so bare bones deal means sterling weakness over next few months relative to euro. a no deal gives you a big mark down at which one can buy give the worst would be in the price. all roads lead to a deal, once you have no deal there is little downside.

kl shawn  09:45:15 GMT - 12/04/2020  
thanks for the insight, red
if 3-5% initial spike to be expected, that will take us to 1.40 first,
most retails will be dead by then even if their short is proven to be right
this is not going to be fun for most sterling traders out there

kl fs  09:49:49 GMT - 12/04/2020  
follow the money trails, sterling is a buy on dips

Mtl JP  09:52:54 GMT - 12/04/2020  
shawn so far I am sticking to my 18:33 Dec 3
john - that same hypothesis crossed my mind.
European princes are a devious and evil genetical pool, historically.

Here is my hope:
Possibly they have internal strife in light of the "democracy":
..."Each country has a veto. .... France will veto a Brexit deal if the EU member state does not like it, the country's European Affairs minister has said." ... - telegraph

PAR 09:58:56 GMT - 12/04/2020  
- EU Official: UK Trade Deal "Imminent", Expected By The End Of The Weekend Barring Last-Minute Breakdown In Talks
- EU Stands Firm On State Aid Demands
- May Have Another Gathering On Brexit After Summit Due Dec.10-11

london red  09:58:59 GMT - 12/04/2020  
eu saying a breakthrough is imminenet yet uk is saying chances are receding. eu wants this put to bed by 10/11 dec eu meet as it wants to focus on budget and help package which the hungarians and poles are blocking. so it has bigger fish to fry. the uk has no rush. covid is already making things pretty bad, brexit is a drop in the ocean. we will see who blinks

Israel MacroMicro  10:14:37 GMT - 12/04/2020  
- pro brexit want UK to go back in time to mid 90's or other point of time in the past.

- anti Brexit want to stay in current times and keep their capital accumulation and growth process remain unharmed.

why the "money" is against Brexit?!
well, global capital distribution is handled from such compressed circles at the present and Brexit is harming them.

this is how I see the narratives around brexit.

therefore, I remain with my stand that no matter if there is a deal or no deal, in reality all to remain the same. more or less check points do not change reality.

Israel MacroMicro  10:20:16 GMT - 12/04/2020  
I shared RAYS cable chart with multiple time frames
I think it is good time to pay it attention again now


Israel MacroMicro  10:25:54 GMT - 12/04/2020  

Entry: Target: Stop:
last one, no deal or deal are great for the "big money" class

great no deal: the short term "chaos" to cause generating a deal in a rush according to their guidance

great deal: it will be according to their guidance

bottom line: cable will trade above 1.5151 during the coming 3 years

just my opinion

Mtl JP  10:26:38 GMT - 12/04/2020  
...."City of London banks have been warned that they need to move jobs and assets to the continent to continue trading post-Brexit. The European Central Bank (ECB) insisted on Wednesday that UK-based financial institutions must not use the coronavirus as an excuse to avoid relocation before the end of the transition period. The ECB, which supervises the eurozone's biggest banks, said that lenders operating in the bloc must move sufficient capital, staff and management expertise to ensure the sort of physical presence required for prudent risk management."

France's 'desire to use Brexit to weaken City of London' exposed in leaked memo

Israel MacroMicro  10:29:48 GMT - 12/04/2020  
John, you are not naive if you survived decades in this business :)

point is, all the roads of deal or no deal leading to the same place trading point of view, buy the dips and sell the blips :)

Israel MacroMicro  10:35:36 GMT - 12/04/2020  
JP 10:26

nonsense in the bad case
funny in the better case

the one writing such articles makes his living from writing.


- who is the one paying for writer's living?

- how much the one paying the writer's living is making from the volatility such articles create?

- Macron used to be an active trader, for who he worked as active trader and how great the relationship with that "paying for Macron living" is today? (or, how very great)

- the former Macron's "living payer" is the master of buy the dips and sell the blips in cycles time frame, not?!

Israel MacroMicro  10:37:21 GMT - 12/04/2020  

Entry: Target: Stop:

I spammed enough
have a great weekend all

jkt abel  10:40:06 GMT - 12/04/2020  
MM, that's very encouraging for cable bulls actually, 1.51 not bad for 1:1 leverage, even considering most only expect it down to 1.20 in worst case scenario, so 1400 pips down or 1700 up, still up is more rewarding, not?

Israel MacroMicro  10:51:38 GMT - 12/04/2020  
abel, for that I must give credit for the great Jay Meisler. as long traders have hope for one or the other side, the bigger traders have stops to trigger :)

1:1 leverage traders have one thing in common, their middle name (which is based on five words) is: "we love and admire drawdowns" :)

jkt abel  11:15:37 GMT - 12/04/2020  
MM, gbpjpy still for 142-145?

Israel MacroMicro  11:24:16 GMT - 12/04/2020  
abel, Cain's plans will be clearer on the 4H candle around the NFP. as you know, Cain is very active with GBP/JPY :)


london red  12:23:57 GMT - 12/04/2020  
why should sterling fall on a bare bones deal? well imagine eu membership as a full option gym pass. you get everything for a monthly fee. now if you leave you still have access to a lot of things in the gym but you must pay your way, inevitably more expensive than a monthly pass. this is the difference between what the uk has now and what it will have from jan 1st 2021. and why sterling will not be rallying more than a few hours after a bare bones deal is announced. remember the uk has already left the eu. and if no bares deal happen, then the uk loses rights to many things and has to pay more those those rights that remain. of course, in time it can build its own gym, to its own requirements (thats the bit about buy the no deal mark down). in laymans terms if u like

london red  12:29:35 GMT - 12/04/2020  
johnson on the wires now telling it like it is.

Israel MacroMicro  12:29:41 GMT - 12/04/2020  
red, the GBP exchange rate is much more than only the GBP/USD exchange rate. I think with that I covered the real important issue.


london red  12:41:47 GMT - 12/04/2020  
eurgbp is a bigger issue rather than cable. and a better comparison since usd doesnt muddy the waters. in any case rising cable is bad for ft100 profits in general so u may even see the ft100 hold up in event of a no deal. one just needs to look back at price action after the referendum to see ft100 wasnt really bothered after a couple of sessions. ft250 is where the pain is felt on no deal but a 15-20% fall in sterling would help no end, but i would also expect a wave of takeover attempts by foreign parties if that were to happen.

Jkt Abel  13:24:16 GMT - 12/04/2020  
There will be a deal. Boris will crack on the last minute.

london red  13:28:39 GMT - 12/04/2020  
i doubt it. not right now. the eu isnt giving them anything at all. no state aid, no self governance, no right to own all their fish. he wont be able to sell leaving the eu with nothing in return. dont forget they are pressing on with internal mkt bill next week, which breaks eu law and the WD agreement.

Jkt Abel  14:08:45 GMT - 12/04/2020  
We are inching higher and higher. 1.35 probed. Not so far from 1.38-1.40

HK OO  14:16:49 GMT - 12/04/2020  
Is there a brexit deal?

Mtl JP  14:26:08 GMT - 12/04/2020  
..." breaks eu law and the WD agreement" ...
That would be a long(er)-term concideration, ya ? But not for FX market. I suspect.

Current state of affairs surrounding brexit yakkings is the short-term energy driving the yo-yoing in GBP.
If my hope for and bet on a no-deal should materialize, both GBP and Euro should tank some.
I am still optimistic that related pops in the DLR would be limited both in scope and in time.

The current trend in the DLR looks well established.

london red  14:32:03 GMT - 12/04/2020  
JP, they are voting on internal mkt bill nxt week. a deal and this are incompatible. hence johnson wants them to accept this. and they wont. and thats one of the reasons they are stuck.

london red  14:34:25 GMT - 12/04/2020  
sterling mkt is v thin. anyone that wanted derivatives bought them when vols where cheaper and only high risk traders doing naked spot here. any deal is largely in the price, certainly on a mkt close basis although intraday should offer a couple of hundred pips. but it will certainly be better to travel than arrive in the case of a deal.

Mtl JP  15:01:25 GMT - 12/04/2020  
thin market has its advantages

Inside of GBP's earlier 1.3410 / 1.3490 chop-chop I am still bearish.
1.35 and 1.3515 Res (now taken), 1.3410 S
Solid break N of 1.35 would trgt some FIB value price points

london red  15:51:11 GMT - 12/04/2020  
daily mail reporter: talks will break up shortly, no white smoke tonight. figures uk housebuilders lower

Mtl JP  15:59:00 GMT - 12/04/2020  
chart illustrating at least tree of Jay's market wisdoms
1) do not overstay your welcome
2) market rarrely moves in straight line
3) forex market lives to run stops - ("our favorite trading strategy")

Mtl JP  16:04:53 GMT - 12/04/2020  
personally I like #3 most.

"the stronger dog gets to f..k"

london red  19:42:15 GMT - 12/04/2020  
sterling eases after talks off for the day. well thank fk for that its late enuff. if u r not up to speed but want to be, the situation is talks are at a stalled point and have been for a long time now. the eu is anxious to move onto budget and recovery fund talks in nxt wks summit meet and is pressuring the uk to fold. the eu is not giving ground on its 4 pillars nor should it. as for the uk they are not backing off either and want control over their own future. also fair enough. folks with at least one brain cell can see where this is going.

FW CS  19:59:02 GMT - 12/04/2020  
So no deal would be bullish Eur and bearish gbp. A compromise would be bullish both gbp and eur. In the middle then nothing.

london red  20:56:42 GMT - 12/04/2020  
no deal. eurgbp rises and both eurusd and cable fall but clearly cable falls much further to allow eurgbp to rise.
bare bones deal. initially cable rises and eurgbp falls (138/0.87 respectively) then a fall over a period of days weeks months for sterling as the reality strike that it no longer enjoys eu terms, but terms barely above wto. mkt has been longer sterling for months. this would need to be unwounded and new shorts would of course take advantage of this.
a comprehensive deal. there is no time to do this but if it were somehow to happen that the eu folds on any of its 4 pillars (this is pretty unthinkable ), then eurgbp can move to initially 0.87 then 0.84/85 over the following days/weeks. cable would outperform the eurusd too. this means doing better on the upside and less bad on the downside. thats all you can say as the usd function is what is going to drive those pairs usually.

Mtl JP  22:29:40 GMT - 12/04/2020  
4 mins ago:
BREXIT talks took a turn for the worse last night after the EU whipped out fresh demands.

(TheSun) EU WHAT? Brexit news live – No deal BOMBSHELL as France forces EU into 11th hour demands that throw trade talks into crisis

FW CS  01:01:31 GMT - 12/05/2020  
Thanks red. Next week got a monkey wrench ECB. If they announce another QE package that could be bearish EUR?

Mtl JP  11:44:40 GMT - 12/05/2020  
GBP Friday close : 1.3432
A PHONECALL between Boris Johnson and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen could make or break negotations.

Brexit news latest- Phonecall with EU chiefs TODAY could make or break trade deals as negotiations put on hold overnight

Mtl JP  22:11:24 GMT - 12/05/2020  
GBP Friday close : 1.3432
..."The EU has warned that no-deal is “feasible” if significant differences with the UK are not resolved at further Brexit trade talks.
( yes yes YES!>

After holding a phone call with Boris Johnson, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said that negotiators would meet again on Sunday in an attempt to salvage an agreement." .../..
(darn darn DARN!)

Brexit news - live: No-deal ‘feasible’ if differences not resolved, says EU after emergency call with Boris Johnson

FW CS  22:43:10 GMT - 12/05/2020  
This Brexit talks will go to the 11th hour always does. Maybe a few minutes past midnight into January 1st for good measure

london red  00:15:00 GMT - 12/06/2020  
has to be voted on by parliament and ratified by eu states too. and since withdrawal agreement states transition cannot be extended, we are in last few days esp since internal mkt bill vote takes place from monday. its tomorrow and monday or bust.

Jkt Abel  01:33:45 GMT - 12/06/2020  
So even if there is a deal this weekend, UK parliament can still reject it? And even if UK parliament approve it, EU states can still block it? Wtf haha

Israel MacroMicro  07:13:07 GMT - 12/06/2020  
volatility ahead with GBP pairs

1.25-1.35 OR 1.3-1.4 for the coming weeks. I go for patience with new trades.

Israel MacroMicro  07:18:51 GMT - 12/06/2020  
GBP/USD: 1.2850-1.3540 the range to calculate retracments and extensions. imo


Mtl JP  08:28:20 GMT - 12/06/2020  
EURO 1.2117 (Friday close)
cobra chart formation
lurking, ready to strike on a "no brexit deal" puppy
strike faster than mammalian can react

Mtl JP  15:41:11 GMT - 12/07/2020  
GBP 1.3310ish
I am bearish on this political puppy. (inside its still prevailing uP trend)
Sub 1.3225 / 1.32 would be - for me - exciting.

Res around 1.3350

london red  15:43:09 GMT - 12/07/2020  
boris and ursula said to be in secret chat at top of hour

london red  15:48:28 GMT - 12/07/2020  
internal mkt bill vote begins from today thru wednesday

refinitiv link

Mtl JP  16:26:10 GMT - 12/07/2020  
yes that call was planned / announced.

I give low odds of some blinding breakthrough

GBP (1.3340-ish) may pop some more IF they announce some extension yet again , potentially right up to Th's summit

Readig for a pounce on a downdraft

Mtl JP  18:27:32 GMT - 12/07/2020  
GBP 1.3325 (1.3372 HoD)
c'mon puppy, puke
gimme 100 more

Mtl JP  18:33:15 GMT - 12/07/2020  
about half hour ago :

UK and EU leaders take break from Brexit deal phone call
By Reuters Staff

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday took a break from a discussion on striking a post-Brexit deal, an EU official said.

The call between the two leaders, which follows an inconclusive one on Saturday, was scheduled to start at around 1600 GMT and about 90 minutes after that time the official said they were taking a break.

The official said it was not clear when they would resume their discussion.

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