revolt. disobedience. disrespect. discredit. central banks
follow. or anticipate.
Bond Vigilantes Swarm European Economies Where Inflation Is Hot
"(Bloomberg Sun., May 16, 2021) -- Bond markets are famous for pushing their agenda, and in east Europe right now, they’re pushing for rate increases, never mind what central banks have to say on the matter.
Yields on bonds of Hungary and Poland are rising faster than anywhere else in Europe. Hungary’s jumped 32 basis points last week, signaling traders are primed for rate liftoff as inflation roars back to life ahead of widespread economic re-openings this summer." ... .
Mtl JP 00:29:08 GMT - 05/17/2021
ya I am biased: this puppy is heading into the toilet
Mtl JP 21:52:10 GMT - 05/16/2021
Colonial Pipeline says ‘normal operations’ have resumed following hack
Mtl JP 17:51:28 GMT - 05/14/2021
after 10am on Friday
trading against Knez
euro 1.2134 -> unlikely puppy will go much lower from here
S at 1.2130
Belgrade Knez 14:22:59 GMT - 05/14/2021
Entry: 1.214x Target: south Stop: 1.215x
Friday high at 1.2152..... probably will test that level and few pips above until/if goes down again
Mtl JP 14:13:11 GMT - 05/14/2021
SellEURUSD Entry: 1.214x Target: south Stop: 1.215x
those who needed to trade into the 10am time point are now likely done
Mtl JP 13:55:55 GMT - 05/14/2021
sub 1.2120/00 Sup puppy looks hungry for that previously pointed out 1.204x low, at least
Mtl JP 13:50:19 GMT - 05/14/2021
and stocks ?
eye-catching: decisive players / robots filling pockets
Mtl JP 13:12:18 GMT - 05/14/2021
flood of FED mushroom feeders with same "not to worry" formulation appears to have gained control over player schizzo emotions.
I maintain my nega-bias on the USD, just more prudently.
1:0 for the FED
has bullish overtone above its 100-day
close above 1.21 would support the bullishitude
Res at 1.2150/80, S 1.21 and ~1.2080
Mtl JP 11:16:50 GMT - 05/14/2021
and stocks ?
what will they do OR have they done their thing already
GVI Forex11:12:28 GMT - 05/14/2021
US yields slippoinmg, dollar following
dc CB 17:47:51 GMT - 05/13/2021
''horse that won the Kentucky Derby and then Failed '''
dc CB 17:46:33 GMT - 05/13/2021
the Preakness runs this Sat.
The horse that one the Kentucky Derby and the Failed the post race drug test.....Will be running.
Got to keep the Triple Crown 'hope' alive. Def can't void the chance after the first race.
as janet's department peddles off 27 billion worth of 30-yr bonds at 13:00, waller yaks about economy at same time, follows bullard at 16:00 on essentially same topic but also on policy outlook as if one mushroom feeding were not nuff
puppy looks like it needs an electroshock wallowing as it is just above its 100-day.
Sup at 1.20, Res 1.21 & 1.2150
Mtl JP 08:42:04 GMT - 05/13/2021
one more moRE "fear"-based profit opp trading headline:
"Inflation fears grip markets as European stocks and U.S. equity futures slide" - authored by none other than Barbara Kollmeyer
this kind of reporting is symptomatic
Mtl JP 08:27:55 GMT - 05/13/2021
10-yr 1.694 (spiki uppi)
DLRx 90.65 (also spiki uppi)
what some jounalists term "worries", some players see and play profit opportunities. headlines:
What does inflation mean for the stock market? It’s supposed to be a positive —but investors are spooked now
Inflation is climbing, but it isn’t blasting past its 30-year range — yet
Asian markets follow Wall Street lower as inflation worries mount
Bitcoin bulls on social media reject Musk’s reasoning for halting crypto-based car sales
Government reminds anxious gas customers: ‘Do not fill plastic bags with gasoline’ (dummy asks: why not? smart one says: it may mean you never get laid. ever)
Mtl JP 23:17:47 GMT - 05/12/2021
I have two questions.
Is the "it" transitory: y/n
What is good way to trade it: ___
(such as betting on risk off/on or that yields are going to fly higher)
Mtl JP 15:42:03 GMT - 05/12/2021
about CPI clarida communicates that:
"the rise in inflation is largely due to transitory factors. He speaks at a National Association for Business Economics virtual event." (Source: Bloomberg)
"is not concerned a coming expected rise in prices will persist, he said the accelerating recovery is not shifting the Fed’s commitment to keeping low interest rates and a $120 billion pace of monthly bond purchases until the labor market is fixed.
“Notwithstanding the recent flow of encouraging macroeconomic data, the economy remains a long way from our goals,” Clarida said. “It is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved.” via Reuters
Mtl JP 15:09:19 GMT - 05/12/2021
puppy overshot 1.2070 by only ~5pips
no dlr buyers usd, only sellers
Mtl JP 14:28:59 GMT - 05/12/2021
odds are 1.2070 will hold S on next appraoch
Mtl JP 14:22:36 GMT - 05/12/2021
PAR 07:36 - it is better to consider CPI, GDP, unemployement, inflation etc etc as just words - vocabulary - in a specialized language used to communicate amongst specific groups of folks such as policy-makers, economists, financial elite, speculators and opportunistic traders, politicians or peasants. Same sentence is not necessarily aimed at all groups with same intention of understanding.
GVI Forex13:51:25 GMT - 05/12/2021
US 10 year 1.675%, +5.1 bp
Mtl JP 10:15:07 GMT - 05/12/2021
huh what is this about ?
PAR07:36:34 GMT - 05/12/2021
CPI calculations are more modern arts than economics.
Nothing scientific about it.
An NFP-like surprise may not be excluded
Mtl JP 02:02:59 GMT - 05/12/2021
on deck: CPI
economists expecting +3.5%
Fed's Harker says
- 3% inflation is the maximum he would like to see
- it is 'premature' to talk about tapering asset purchases
Mtl JP 17:59:15 GMT - 05/11/2021
from moderate to ... de or hyper / inflationary ?
CNBC’s Steve Liesman reports on commentary from the Federal Reserve’s Brainard on the economic outlook.
sounds like an investment hint
Climate change means water and sewer utilities will need billion of upgrades over the next decade, report says - MarketWatch
cement, cement and plistic pipes and conduits, construction equipement, engineering firms ...etc
Mtl JP 16:03:55 GMT - 05/11/2021
just look at then (JP 15:11) and now
u a good bottom picker viies. like the teamwork
Mtl JP 15:11:47 GMT - 05/11/2021
viies --- u a buyer around here ?
Mtl JP 15:07:38 GMT - 05/11/2021
puppy's just a pain-in-donkey with its +/- ~30pip range around 1.2150
it's the DLR leg that needs to jolt in my optique
I just can't trade on some vaccination reports from europe vs us
Mtl JP 14:49:05 GMT - 05/11/2021
about this morn's stocks
down -> extends decline -> off -> skid lower
currently things not serious just yet as the moves are not anywhere near Babson Break (defined as ~ -3% decline)
Mtl JP 14:34:03 GMT - 05/11/2021
all mushroom feeders are voters
except harker and kashkari
haifa ac 14:33:22 GMT - 05/11/2021
Spx just punctured last week low-- dark clouds are gathering.
aerial combat between good and evil
Mtl JP 14:30:59 GMT - 05/11/2021
my suspision is players are trading the famous wall of worry
probably trying to discount CPI's massive price moves-uP
williams about to yak at bottom of hour
follows brainyard at noon
and bosti, harker and cashncarry in the aft
in case players should be getting wrong ideas
haifa ac 14:29:09 GMT - 05/11/2021
Nasdaq' Nikkei' Dax made today lower monthly low. I wonder why Tallinn viies did not mention this yet,
Mtl JP 14:22:33 GMT - 05/11/2021
what do they know
players sellind dlr, bond and stocks ahead of tom's CPI ?
Mtl JP 13:59:54 GMT - 05/11/2021
GVI Forex 10:16 - thky - looks like I did not clear my cache.
that would make it mea culpa.
1.620% or so still likely tolerable by "authorities", probably till 1.9-ish
as FED gang continues happily purchasing "minimum $120 billion/month"
GVI Forex10:16:31 GMT - 05/11/2021
JP, check your source for US bond yields. US 10 year is 1.611%
Mtl JP 09:56:09 GMT - 05/11/2021
Stocks fall across Europe and Nasdaq futures tumble 1%, as inflation concerns and selloff sentiment spread
10-yr 1.573% atm
more FED "mass communicators" on deck today
Mtl JP 09:28:20 GMT - 05/11/2021
do you get the impression that the FED and players are like a he says she says couple having communication issue ?
but divorce is not an option
(except for the crypto crowd. maybe)
Mtl JP 09:13:50 GMT - 05/11/2021
The Society of American Business Editors and Writers (SABEW) is an association of business journalists. Its headquarters is at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University in Phoenix, Ariz
mass communication ... mushroom farming
evans could not have chosen better venue.
next, soon should be clarida
Mtl JP 09:04:57 GMT - 05/11/2021
what more does the market need to know ?
charles 'substantial progress' evans:
several months of 1 million jobs added
more wage growth
Fed's Evans says employment and inflation need to pick up before policy changes
Wall Street Journal
Fed's Evans Says It Is Too Soon to Talk About Fed Aid Pullback
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials would like to see higher inflation, more wage growth and several months of strong employment gains averaging 1 million jobs added before they would consider adjusting monetary policy, Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday.
“We just want to be sure that monetary policy doesn’t get in the way of a vibrant labor market,” Evans said during a virtual conversation organized by the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing. “I think accommodative monetary policy will continue to be appropriate ... We’ve got, you know, some room to overshoot inflation.”
(Bloomberg Sun., May 9, 2021) -- The U.S. labor market remains in a “deep hole” and needs aggressive support to speed its healing from the Covid-19 pandemic, said Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari.
“We are still somewhere between 8 and 10 million jobs below where we were before the pandemic,” Kashkari said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” .../..
Yellen: I believe we will reach full employment in 2022
CNBC 2 days ago
Yellen: Biden's plan could restore full employment by 2022
Feb. 8, 2021
Mtl JP 09:01:25 GMT - 05/10/2021
Bond Traders See a Path to 2% Yields Lurking in U.S. Jobs Miss
"(Bloomberg) -- The prospect of a rebound to 2% yields on the world’s benchmark bond is alive and well.
Treasury-market bears found a deeper message within Friday’s weak employment report that’s emboldened a view that inflationary pressures are on the rise, and could boost rates to levels not seen since 2019." .../..
Mtl JP 08:45:28 GMT - 05/10/2021
ahead of NY
10-yr 1.577 (52 WEEK RANGE 0.502 - 1.778)
Mtl JP 08:28:21 GMT - 05/10/2021
but we all knew / know it.
(Bloomberg) -- Global central banks are starting to wind down the trillion-dollar money printing machines set in motion to rescue their economies in 2020. Getting ahead of them is becoming this year’s biggest currency trade.
because ... "Colonial Pipeline said Sunday that it was still developing a plan for restarting the nation’s largest fuel pipeline -- a critical source of supply for the New York region -- and would only bring it back when “safe to do so, and in full compliance with the approval of all federal regulations.” Gasoline futures surged by as much as 4.2% in early electronic trading on Sunday"...
currently 1.2050 seems to have repulsive characteristic.
DLRx popping uP off 90.70 should help cap euro
Mtl JP 22:28:48 GMT - 05/06/2021
sitting just abouve its S at 90.82 prev day low
staying alert and staying short
Mtl JP 22:10:59 GMT - 05/06/2021
so the next thing that comes to mind is ...
will asia ape the late surge
only the brave will find out
Mtl JP 22:05:46 GMT - 05/06/2021
I ll be darned - a catalyst
or someone decided nuff of waiting I believe jerome
Mtl JP 17:54:14 GMT - 05/06/2021
is another puppy stuck in a twilight range (50 pips worth)
Mtl JP 17:46:20 GMT - 05/06/2021
anyone want to take a stab:
BARRON'S - Volkswagen Profit Jumps and EV Sales Double. Why the Stock Is Falling
why indeed ?
Mtl JP 17:14:55 GMT - 05/06/2021
looks like the 100day 's got a solid grip on the puppy atm doesn't it
Mtl JP 08:48:47 GMT - 05/06/2021
eat this greta:
Biden Leans Into Plans to Tax the Rich
“We’re not going to deprive any of these executives of their second or third home, travel privately by jet,” the president said
Mtl JP 08:27:05 GMT - 05/06/2021
10-yr 1.582 (vs 1.573 overnite)
DLR down -> euro uP ...
simple as uno dos
"Relations sour further between China and Australia as Beijing suspends economic dialogue"
Not the first time CCP having behavioral trouble
Mtl JP 23:32:55 GMT - 05/05/2021
The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:
Initial jobless claims, week ended May 1: 538,000 expected vs. 553,000 during the prior week
Continuing claims, week ended April 24: 3.620 million expected vs. 3.660 million during the prior week
Mtl JP 22:18:19 GMT - 05/05/2021
10-yr 1.608 (+0.014)
a nebulous day about the dollar but
91.50 holding Res so far after 3 days of ~91.45
still holding nega-bias on the dlr
dc CB 19:58:11 GMT - 05/05/2021
COVID vaccine business, which Pfizer said just yesterday will likely be a "durable revenue stream" as COVID vaccines likely become an annual dose like the flu vaccine.
Will be 'deliberately patient' regarding inflation
More progress needed in job market before forward guidance conditions met
Not too concerned that inflation will get out of hand
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
― Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Rosengren says higher inflation will be as temporary as last year’s toilet-paper shortage
Mtl JP 15:10:24 GMT - 05/05/2021
goodi-good, 91.50 holds Res
evans (policy likely on hold for some time), rosengren (currently yakking) and mester (yet to yak at top of the hour) on economy and policy
Israel MacroMicro 13:14:24 GMT - 05/05/2021
Vienna GD 06:22 GMT May 5, 2021
the beauty of trading is thanks to different definitions by participants to the term PROCESS
all see the same, not all capable to see and ride the roadmap of the journey to see
Mtl JP 10:13:29 GMT - 05/05/2021
Dubai tapped to host Germany’s canceled Oktoberfest, upsetting some traditionalists
Mtl JP 08:26:55 GMT - 05/05/2021
DLRx 91.38, HoD 91.415
doom doom , doom doom ...
powell FED gang's independence credibility is on the line
Mtl JP 08:26:51 GMT - 05/05/2021
DLRx 91.38, HoD 91.415
doom doom , doom doom ...
powell FED gang's independence credibility is on the line
hk ab 06:30:55 GMT - 05/05/2021
GD//JIMVHO, fears are often "unexpected".
hk ab 06:30:55 GMT - 05/05/2021
GD//JIMVHO, fears are often "unexpected".
Vienna GD 06:30:01 GMT - 05/05/2021
and BTW a few indices are already close or already have met the minimum of 5%. But (highly) likely there is more to come (for most indices and also for PMs).
Of course in an orderly way. As everything is under control. So nothing to see, nothing to fear. As after that everything again to da moon.
For a while.
Vienna GD 06:22:51 GMT - 05/05/2021
Israel MacroMicro 17:44 GMT 05/04/2021
"Blow off top" and "5-15%" correction "into June" - READs somewhat different than what might happen thereafter (where BTW I also expect higher ATH across several assets) - NOT?
Have a nice day.
Mtl JP 22:53:52 GMT - 05/04/2021
Jay ... now that yellen has gone "trump" on powell
IF powell is not pissed with yellen, he needs to publicly come out - probably multiple times and in various forms - and say that he is pissed with her contrary meddling to what he and his minions have been clearly saying about QE and interest rates steadfastedly and over and over.
NY JM 22:05:01 GMT - 05/04/2021
Yellen tempered her comments and voiced the Fed’s inflation is transitory party line.
Mtl JP 18:02:44 GMT - 05/04/2021
so yellen's interest spew cost gold to lose $15.80 (nearly 1%)
I suppose the next "message" will be what they chose to print in next few CPI (4% ??) -- and how housing reacts. housing is probably the risk lynch pin. and inflation expectations
Israel MacroMicro 17:52:56 GMT - 05/04/2021
there must be a reason and someone got well served by CME raising the maximum size of positions that "institutional" are allowed to hold.
PAR17:48:37 GMT - 05/04/2021
Agree. Don't spoil the holidays of the super rich.
They all want to come to the South of France.
What did you expect.
Israel MacroMicro 17:44:35 GMT - 05/04/2021
that's all gloom and doom gurus can do?!
week or two and we may see for real how "blow off top" process happens, noticeable higher ATH with all indices before end of October of this year.
from there, trade with helmet on :)
gl / gt
Mtl JP 14:15:17 GMT - 05/04/2021
10-yr down -0.04 to 1.563
sofar stocks(down) saying not good nuff
PAR12:43:13 GMT - 05/04/2021
Biden is and always has been a Pentagon man. He is a bellicose president and only listens to his generals.
Biden = Lord of Wars
Israel MacroMicro 12:16:38 GMT - 05/04/2021
Chinese air-force jets feeling very comfortable about being inside Taiwanese air-space. S/T spike down (of few minutes ago) in risk or developing RISK OFF theme for few sessions.
new week, new month.
I don't expect the pop uP in DLR to have legs (i.e. N of 91.50)
EURO 1.2071 is prancing above its 100day w/next Res at 1.21
Sup in the 1.2015 / 1.1990 zone
Mtl JP 03:46:29 GMT - 05/03/2021
Puppy is sitting right on l/t Sup
It is a relatively low risk price point to trade either side (hold or break S) as one will know if the bet is winner or loser soon enuff - bar whipsaws.
Jkt Abel 00:54:47 GMT - 05/03/2021
JP, do you see loonie at 1.18-1.20xxx as attractive enough for long play?
Mtl JP 00:46:52 GMT - 05/03/2021
heeerrre pigeons .... over heeerre ...
..."The Honest Company (HNST) is looking to raise as much as $439M in an IPO next week that could give co-founder Jessica Alba a stake valued at about $96M. Jessica Alba (Honest Company (HNST)) - doesn't plan to sell any of her shares. them in the offering, according to the filing. The Los Angeles-based company had a net loss of $14.5M on revenue of $301M in 2020, compared with a loss of $31M on revenue of $236M the previous year."... - seekingalpha
Mtl JP 18:05:52 GMT - 04/30/2021
euro needs to hold S 2018
else ... lights will go out
Mtl JP 15:36:11 GMT - 04/30/2021
10-yr 1.636, near its day's low
sometimes ... dlr and yield do not correlate
Mtl JP 15:01:06 GMT - 04/30/2021
Fib Sup & Trgt ... BINGO !
Belgrade Knez 09:39:43 GMT - 04/30/2021
absolutely, just sharing different levels so it might be useful
Mtl JP 09:35:10 GMT - 04/30/2021
Knez how we die is a function of the poison we chose *V^
Belgrade Knez 09:31:16 GMT - 04/30/2021
Mtl JP 08:38 GMT April 30, 2021
to calculate fib on daily eu I am using 1.23439 - 1.17041
hence fib support on my chart bit different.....
Mtl JP 08:38:34 GMT - 04/30/2021
ahead of last NY session of the month
10-yr 1.656% (ie. below its recent hight)
DLRx 90.74 - uP off its yesty 90.38 low)
Euro Sup / Trgt at 61% Fib - c chart
dc CB 20:15:11 GMT - 04/29/2021
'say no more, wink wink. say no more'
PAR17:33:17 GMT - 04/29/2021
Next month US rates to go negative?
dc CB 17:07:20 GMT - 04/29/2021
The Treasury just sold $40BN in 4-week bills at a price of 100.000% representing a rate of 0.00%.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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