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Tallinn viies  15:34:07 GMT - 07/23/2021  
hedge funds have been selling their long euro positions from last FOMC meeting. this selling has been met by central banks and national wealth funds who are reducing their extra dollar longs from extraordinary winnings from US stock markets.
so that is why so tight range.
If I were central bank I would take off the euro bid for a while. until FOMC meeting next week. if hedge funds wants to get rid their long then central could buy euro later next week below 200 points lower at least.


Mtl JP  15:29:25 GMT - 07/23/2021  
YAaaaa !
"American Express Stock Is Jumping Because Earnings Show Consumers Keep Spending" - Barron's

on the other hand ...

"The majority of U.S. parents are worried about their kids’ financial future"

what is the solution to the worry - don't propagate ?


Mtl JP  15:21:20 GMT - 07/23/2021  
debt / stupid things ...
-
Biden administration is seeking to keep more borrowers in their homes by extending the length of mortgages and lock in lower monthly payments.

the national foreclosure ban is set to expire July 31.

The relief is meant for borrowers preparing to exit forbearance programs but who can’t resume their normal mortgage payments because they earn less now than before the pandemic.


Mtl JP  15:09:11 GMT - 07/23/2021  
1.1765
-
euro gets the "dog trade" award of the week


Mtl JP  15:04:54 GMT - 07/23/2021  
 
snp at all-time high


Mtl JP  14:45:50 GMT - 07/23/2021  
1.17545 recent low
and sofar 2x bottom
maybe on the 3rd try it crack
maybe not


Mtl JP  14:36:32 GMT - 07/23/2021  
"U.S. economy cools a bit after rocketing higher in second quarter, IHS Markit PMI data show"

-

"Is there a way to avoid doing stupid things in your old age?"
- MarketWatch

darn !
"Biden to introduce new aid for mortgage borrowers at risk of foreclosure"
joe mitigating / delaying opp to buy property on the cheap(er)


Mtl JP  14:12:22 GMT - 07/23/2021  
re FED next week
-
DLRx 92.96 atm
IF the puppy can close th week on the uP
posi-perception about growth and FED's policy percolate
ie that all is well


london red  14:05:13 GMT - 07/23/2021  
sold the clf trade earlier but will be back. looking to go into ford and dow, but not yet. sticking with mcd while above 239.


Mtl JP  13:56:07 GMT - 07/23/2021  
"I didn't feel comfortable taking a commitment for such a long period."
-
FRANKFURT, July 23 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Friday he was uncomfortable with the ECB's new guidance, which financial markets have taken as a commitment not to raise interest rates for "five or six years". .../..

ECB's Wunsch uncomfortable with multi-year commitment on rates -CNBC



Mtl JP  13:32:59 GMT - 07/23/2021  
EURO 1.1765
-
FLAVOR: bearish
S 1.1760/50
R 1.1800/25-30


Mtl JP  13:11:40 GMT - 07/23/2021  
 
10-yr 1.302%
DLRx 92.85
EURO 1.1775
-
USD uP some; FED next week
euro looks like it wants down BUT ... still inside range
"risk" appears to have slight bid


Mtl JP  18:27:24 GMT - 07/22/2021  
EURO 1.1769
BOUNCING OFF ~1.1755
odds are now for stop hunt to 1.18ish


london red  13:10:54 GMT - 07/22/2021  
ft100 sup by 6950/60
snp if goes much below 4340 then could test 4300/4280.
all ops to buy if seen.


Mtl JP  12:31:40 GMT - 07/22/2021  
"I m a believer"
like the 0.01 that "kills 99.9%" does not
-
"The vast majority of the experts, including Wall Street, are suggesting that it's highly unlikely that it's going to be long-term inflation that's going to get out of hand. There will be near-term inflation, because everything is now trying to be picked back up." - biden

Joe Biden town hall in Cincinnati: Here's the full CNN transcript
July 2, 2021



Mtl JP  20:54:20 GMT - 07/21/2021  
snp 4350+
sans commentaire, but admittedly I am pleased
-
euro just keeps on being lame dog to trade
maybe just shooting it would give it a bit jolt


london red  14:06:19 GMT - 07/21/2021  
the 10 kissed its 200dma and a slight pullback off it for now. first chance if someone wants to buy bonds. lets see if anyone comes in here. but if they break 1.28 it should move to 1.33 same day given recent vol.


Mtl JP  12:54:07 GMT - 07/21/2021  
EURO 1.1760-ish
-
ECB in two-day policy session. odds are zero of "surprise"

Technically puppy is bearish
S 1.1750, 10/00
R 1.1775/80/00/ 1.1850

interesting 50 / 200day phenomenon developing on daily


london red  12:29:44 GMT - 07/21/2021  
snp sups by 4275 4290. res by 4375. the 4275 needs to hold or rally over. the 10 res by 1.28 and 1.33. while below those can still go down.


Mtl JP  12:29:39 GMT - 07/21/2021  
10-yr 1.234% - slightly uP off low
DLRx 93.04 - slightly off high
EURO 1.1769 - confused
-
Key , again, looks like to correctly chose the one driving price-moving energy vector.


Mtl JP  12:22:47 GMT - 07/21/2021  
 
"risk"'s mood heading into NY


Mtl JP  01:27:44 GMT - 07/21/2021  
AUD 0.7330-ish
-
DON’T ACT LIKE A HUMAN. DON’T TALK TO YOUR FRIENDS, EVEN WHEN MASKED. DON’T BE FRIENDLY. THIS IS NOT THE TIME. - .vid

Dr. Kerry Chant, chief health officer of New South Wales, Australia



Mtl JP  20:40:01 GMT - 07/20/2021  
that "Lot of Very Young People’ Are Going to Buy the Dip in Stocks" did not dis-appoint: us stocks ended day uP ~1.5/6

lets see how asia - Nikkei 27710 - trades next


london red  19:30:31 GMT - 07/20/2021  
clf fills gaps to just under 20 bucks where there appears to be res on chart. however with results due this week, i doubt there is much pullback. after results who knows but these guys are at 2x and throwing off so much cash they dont know what to do with it. whats not to like cept for fact the meme censored0s got hold of it a few times and risk capsizing the boat post results. but even so, u collect them up with both hands


Mtl JP  16:04:59 GMT - 07/20/2021  
EURO 1.1777
-
piece of work this puppy
just as players collective watches the same nega-bias tech indicators
puppy plays a tease n jerk game


london red  16:03:49 GMT - 07/20/2021  
xpo has used second week of july to build up for a nice move higher. probably means new highs.


london red  15:12:57 GMT - 07/20/2021  
spx almost filled gap to 4322. hourly chart. if they chose to pullback, maybe 4280-88. but most likely pullback will be shallow and will move higher still.


london red  15:11:19 GMT - 07/20/2021  
both statements may be right as they are not mutually exclusive, they can coexist together.


Mtl JP  14:38:38 GMT - 07/20/2021  
jeffries vs gottlieb
chose your poison:
-
"Delta variant will be the ‘most serious virus’ the unvaccinated ever get, says ex-FDA head Gottlieb"

Dr. Scott Gottlieb urges social media platforms to curb Covid vaccine misinformation - told CNBC on Monday


Mtl JP  14:23:08 GMT - 07/20/2021  
 
red I favor round numbers
50 (green priceline); and 00


london red  14:13:43 GMT - 07/20/2021  
snp 4320/22. lets see what happens there. if doesnt pull back there then theres too much money...and u know the rest


Mtl JP  13:52:39 GMT - 07/20/2021  
1.3610
red 13:34 u r already "non-wrong" (i.e right) *-^


london red  13:52:22 GMT - 07/20/2021  
fwiw jefferies has a note out saying delta less lethal. probably shouldnt be news that as viruses mutate they tend to get less deadly but in spoon fed society maybe needs to be said.


Mtl JP  13:37:42 GMT - 07/20/2021  
GBP getting somewhat stretched under its 200day
odds of speed of further down diminishing on N.I. priced in
if not outright screetch n bounce


london red  13:34:56 GMT - 07/20/2021  
they are selling gbp due to covid policy. uk has opened up fully depsite rising cases. selling gbp is a bet that deaths go up masively and they lockdown again. i think that bet will be wrong.


Mtl JP  13:25:34 GMT - 07/20/2021  
USDCAD 1.2778
-
Puppy looking ready to make lunch of 1.2780 Res


GVI Forex 13:25:34 GMT - 07/20/2021  
GBPUSD: 1.3580

In this regard, GBP is softer after a headline that the UK is set to make a statement on the N Ireland protocol tomorrow. Note this on your blotter..


Mtl JP  13:09:43 GMT - 07/20/2021  
ECB Th, PMI Friday
-
EURO 1.1773
Bearish bias
75/65 s/t Supp; 1.1710/00 below that
Res around 1.1825/50 (20day)


london red  12:55:39 GMT - 07/20/2021  
regardless of why the 10 looks like it cannot stop til 1.0275 channel with bigger support by 0.96-0.99


Mtl JP  12:55:04 GMT - 07/20/2021  
10-yr 1.159%
DLRx 93.095
-
heading for 1% ....
as janet will peddle off 20 billion later today ?


london red  10:48:41 GMT - 07/20/2021  
tiktok and instagram should not be used in the same breath as investment. they will deserve everything that will sooner or later come their way.


haifa ac  09:24:04 GMT - 07/20/2021  
"A Lot of Very Young People’ "
I hear about a group of four years old who formed an investment group. They use tick tok and Instagram,

They decided to retire at 27.


Mtl JP  09:12:31 GMT - 07/20/2021  
published around 1600hrs yesty
-
Bloomberg
‘A Lot of Very Young People’ Are Going to Buy the Dip in Stocks


Mtl JP  07:06:46 GMT - 07/20/2021  
Bloomberg
"Dog-Walking App Booms as Workers Return to the Office and Travel"


Mtl JP  21:03:20 GMT - 07/19/2021  
4261 as I type
-
red still a few hours to midnite nyt and
only 40 points to 4300
"they" may have senior crew on duty this eve

I note that we have not yet seen "babson break" (-3 or >)
so the natives should not be too freak-outy


london red  20:37:48 GMT - 07/19/2021  
JP, it goes like this. if they can give us one or two more down days like today, then you will get two months of pretty much uninterrupted gains. quick down leads invariably to slow run higher. chop leads to more chop.


Mtl JP  20:10:21 GMT - 07/19/2021  
or if
S&P 500 closes 1.6% lower;
Nasdaq Composite falls 1.1%;
Dow down 2.1%
headline will trump


Mtl JP  20:06:48 GMT - 07/19/2021  
be interesting to case asia's reaction
to NY's last ~30 minutes

and then London's later


Mtl JP  20:02:16 GMT - 07/19/2021  
 
4250+
-
crazed dogs, rippin' tearin' n' not even chewing


Mtl JP  19:58:00 GMT - 07/19/2021  
no analysis red, just rapider than rapid scalping
dog eat dog frenzy


Mtl JP  19:55:10 GMT - 07/19/2021  
snp 4244 ,
next is 4246 ahead of 4250


london red  19:47:28 GMT - 07/19/2021  
snp looking heavy. but it can just go up anyway, so thats no analysis. would be cleaner to see 4160/4140 tomorrow and then bounce. but i guess there can be those more desperate to put their money to work and rule that out.


Mtl JP  19:36:40 GMT - 07/19/2021  
tyler on the Clown for All Amricans' confidence in what
we are not seeing:

"to the immortal words of George Orwell that "War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength", we can now add that inflation is deflation."


Mtl JP  19:15:34 GMT - 07/19/2021  
 
snp 4238
-
right on R line
puppy probably will need N of 4250
to make fun of players


Mtl JP  18:51:41 GMT - 07/19/2021  
so now 10-yr is giving up 1.196% and I am supposed to thing snp is going to bounce off its 3x testing of 4225 LoD


Mtl JP  18:45:11 GMT - 07/19/2021  
snp 4225 = 3x return to test
I dont have a bead w/ppt
so 50/50 odds from me


Mtl JP  18:02:03 GMT - 07/19/2021  
10-yr 1.193%
swimming near LoD

there is one woman I - we - know is thrilled w/ how little she is paying


Mtl JP  17:39:33 GMT - 07/19/2021  
EURO 1.1794
-
makes me chuckle .... oasis of relative stability
as profits being made elsewhere


london red  17:08:36 GMT - 07/19/2021  
big tech has been rolling lower again over the last hour. this likely will surpress the main indices but you will see other sector stocks either staying flat or gently moving off lows. eg fedex now up. apple under 141.75 will open up levels close to 137.


london red  15:12:01 GMT - 07/19/2021  
initial selling in us over. they may now look to 4274-89 res. if that caps then can move to lows late session. but if breached then they can close by 4320 today. but in that case pullback would be over. if they can stay under 4274 then still chance to see lower levels later in week.


london red  14:26:44 GMT - 07/19/2021  
aapl touched touched first sup at 141.75. could bounce here but not low enough to buy and hold. that might be 137 or worst case 124-130.


london red  14:22:17 GMT - 07/19/2021  
spx 50dma touchdown


london red  14:12:12 GMT - 07/19/2021  
ft100 trying to close below may low of 6821. if does so then like 6720 tomorrow. that is first op to put in a base off channel sup. the 200dma will be some 50 points lower.


london red  13:56:07 GMT - 07/19/2021  
the 10 looks like 1.1850 before respite


GVI Forex 13:55:18 GMT - 07/19/2021  
UK yields down sharply as well, narrowing vs bunds


london red  13:49:22 GMT - 07/19/2021  
looking to buy at f near 12 and cof near 140.


london red  13:45:33 GMT - 07/19/2021  
tapped into some mcd and cleveland cliffs here. mds chart looks constructive and stock is traditionally defensive. and aside from that you cannot buy a mcd site for $hit, they are selling their family members rather than parting with drive thru mcd or even kcf or anything of that ilk. while cleveland is at 100dma which halted 3 past declines. the stock has not closed below 100dma since 6 bucks. further erosion means 200dma and 16 bucks which would be where id add.


london red  13:34:23 GMT - 07/19/2021  
amzn fills gap. but i would wait. not down enough to jump in for anything more than a few minutes


GVI Forex 13:32:28 GMT - 07/19/2021  
No news to trigger the dollar (metals as well) turnaround (as I have noted to subscribers, beware of fading straight line moves as seen on AT charts). Only thing I have seen besides risk off is narrowing yields with US yields narrowing vs bunds for example). EURUSD also seeing demand from firmer EURGBP.

The Amazing Trader



london red  12:29:09 GMT - 07/19/2021  
here is 4276 on s&p. nxt sup is 4238 which is 50dma where mkt correction has stopped the last 4 times. but even if sup doesnt hold, at v min 4276 should print in cash mkt once mkt opens. more likely there will be some backfill in attempt to close gap abv.


jkt abel  11:36:02 GMT - 07/19/2021  
yeah, endless covid mutations and more money to the vaccine producers will mean print more and more and more


london red  11:16:50 GMT - 07/19/2021  
he said he wanted to buy V on a pullback. what is a pullback say V stockholders. V and MA two of about 10 stocks you buy and leave certificates somewhere where you will never go eg your mother in laws.
but you can dream 215-230 would be nice. as would cap one at 140.


Mtl JP  10:59:16 GMT - 07/19/2021  
 
DLRx 93
-
abel 10:28 dlr uP = print more moRE ?


Mtl JP  10:54:59 GMT - 07/19/2021  
historical note
fwiw
-
market retreat of 3% (in one day) - "Babson Break" - was just a warning


Mtl JP  10:47:30 GMT - 07/19/2021  
red I am eyeballing outfits w/brand recognition, deep market penetration, pricing power and (hopefully) secure income stream: Visa, utilities, P&Gs of the world


london red  10:41:53 GMT - 07/19/2021  
JP, its still early even for premkt but im not seeing too many bargains in big tech yet, although some of the other sectors are beginning to look ok. certainly in the uk i am ready to begin picking up this week across the board. but back to us, i was hoping to buy back appple microsoft and amazon than i recently took off but only the later is making much downside headway. msft would be nice to pick up 260 and lower, aapl 137 (141 maybe if mkt doesnt fall much) and amazon 3200/3300 area. these would be trades that id add to on further falls, but would also expect to close out on rebounds towards or at new highs.


london red  10:37:24 GMT - 07/19/2021  
if stock fallout continues euro could visit the 38.2 by 11692 and usdpln 4.0. theres a double top on the euro chart which would target 1.11 but i think you need to see a return to pre vaccine panic to see those levels. the delta is infectious but few are dying, certainly in the uk. the 50% comes in v close to a prev high of 11496. maybe you could get there is stocks sell off sharply to 4k but realistically you guess it stops not far under 1.17. however the trend is your friend and it they dont reverse once down there, you could start to see the double top begin to partial play out. its not my base case though. as i say too much money in system and you suspect that jackson hole will be used to underline free money rather than begin taking it away given the delta spread.


Mtl JP  10:35:46 GMT - 07/19/2021  
DJ looking pukey-sick atm, if players collective turns late friday tilt going into panic exit certain "bargains" would appear. The trap though would be to BTFD of first puke-out.


jkt abel  10:31:56 GMT - 07/19/2021  
just need to make a weekly closing above 93.50 for DX, then we may get lucky and hit the jackpot


jkt abel  10:28:42 GMT - 07/19/2021  
JP, looks like usd will make big run to the upside now


Mtl JP  10:27:58 GMT - 07/19/2021  
us 10-yr: 1.255%
DLRx 92.97

something s going on


london red  08:26:59 GMT - 07/19/2021  
i think 4275 will provide a bounce. you cant know for sure until its turned but that could be as low as it goes. if not then 4165. it would require something new ie. policy change, significant us restrictions to get more. if we saw levels just above 4k that would be around 10%. i cant see any more realistically as there is just too much money. you still cant buy anything off grid with a yield for anywehre near reasonable money.


Mtl JP  08:06:12 GMT - 07/19/2021  
 
calling crystal ball


Mtl JP  05:32:16 GMT - 07/19/2021  
 
USDCAD 1.2642
-
well ... that much for price-reaction to +400,000 barrles
there is a lesson in there somewhere


Mtl JP  21:06:50 GMT - 07/18/2021  
Bloomberg

• Central bankers in Russia, South Africa, Indonesia also meet
• Weekly take on events in the world economy and their fallout

European Central Bank officials are poised to reveal just how their new monetary strategy, unveiled with fanfare earlier this month, will actually make a difference to investors.

At their decision on Thursday, policy makers will tweak their stance to reflect changes ranging from a slightly higher inflation goal of 2% to an explicit allowance that they might overshoot it for a while. ECB President Christine Lagarde has already primed financial markets, saying they should prepare for new guidance on stimulus “given the persistence that we need to demonstrate to deliver on our commitment.” .../..

Lagarde’s Big Change Means ECB Has a New Message: Eco Week Ahead
By Craig Stirling, Jill Ward, and James Hirai
July 18, 2021



Mtl JP  17:26:47 GMT - 07/18/2021  
the ramp-up is worth 400,000 brls/day


Mtl JP  17:03:58 GMT - 07/18/2021  
It appears that
"OPEC+ agrees to boost oil production, ending standoff between Saudi Arabia and U.A.E." - MarketWatch

My last Fr prices were:
Brent 73.13
WTI 71.46
USDCAD 1.2618


Mtl JP  20:36:26 GMT - 07/16/2021  
 
USDCAD 1.2613
-
Expecting 1.2600/1.2650 to offer Res
to the current rally.
C u next week


Mtl JP  18:45:58 GMT - 07/16/2021  
10-yr 1.308
-
"As inflation surges, BlackRock’s iShares investment strategy pro says clients ‘confounded by the move in interest rates’ "

is that not what jerome's gang wants : confuse them with b/s?
good job

---
here we go 4327 lets how deep


london red  18:34:30 GMT - 07/16/2021  
whole lotta room down to 4286 channel, which next week will match july 8 and 9 lows of 4289. if they drop quick, thats where you buy. if its a slow drift, it may need to do a bit more work on downside. but we'll see.


Mtl JP  18:06:49 GMT - 07/16/2021  
lots of space under 4332 snp


london red  17:35:50 GMT - 07/16/2021  
amazon close to testing prev highs by 3550. some folks will buy that or the gap by 3510 with a stop under 3400. but you want to wait for that to get gunned and buy 3200/3300


london red  17:33:55 GMT - 07/16/2021  
theyll run the bitch down into the close. too many complacent bulls around. big tech is always the last to go but once it goes it drags the mkt down. at that point, cos all the other $hit has already moved lower, its the bottom.


Mtl JP  17:07:07 GMT - 07/16/2021  
 
IMO snp will need to clear the red price-line in order to nix the current nega-sentiment


Mtl JP  16:11:57 GMT - 07/16/2021  
lets see
several (4) month of 4% (call it "rapid") inflation:
(100+4)+4+4+4 = $116.98
ffwrd to "medium" term (between 1 - 3yrs) and "back toward normal levels" (assuming 2%) ...

so brutally speaking something that costs $100 today would be expected to c0st >$120-125+ say by 2022-end

ya think - odds? - biden is going to release jerome and install janet ?


Mtl JP  15:45:26 GMT - 07/16/2021  
she thinks. I, too, think.
-
...“We will have several more months of rapid inflation,” Yellen told Sara Eisen during a “Closing Bell” interview. “So I’m not saying that this is a one-month phenomenon. But I think over the medium term, we’ll see inflation decline back toward normal levels. But, of course, we have to keep a careful eye on it.” ... - Jeff Cox 16/07/2021


london red  15:24:19 GMT - 07/16/2021  
4340 is the key for today. if they accelerate lower it could get to 4275 next week. thats quite close to where the 50dma will be then. beyoned that there the last low prior at 4165 close to where the 100dma will be end of next week. not sure can go much lower. too much money looking for a return.


Mtl JP  15:17:36 GMT - 07/16/2021  
the runs up take long time (13hrs)
the whack downs take less time (3hrs)
almost 80/20 rule


HK Kevin  15:10:05 GMT - 07/16/2021  
For day trade, my chart reading is buy against yesterday's low, buy 4335 and s/l 4330


Mtl JP  15:04:53 GMT - 07/16/2021  
 
rolling over ... tired ... or maybe just an early summer cyclical turn down

chart showing only some "what if" (things go to h3ll in handbasket) price levels




london red  14:29:26 GMT - 07/16/2021  
ft100 on verge of rolling over


Mtl JP  12:59:02 GMT - 07/16/2021  
EURO 1.1800
-
dreadful priceaction, slightly bearish
1.1820 & 50 Res
1.1770/50 Sup; below low 1.17 trgt


Mtl JP  10:16:40 GMT - 07/16/2021  
(AP) "California lawmakers on Thursday approved the first state-funded guaranteed income plan in the U.S., providing $35 million for monthly cash payments to qualifying pregnant people and young adults who recently left foster care with no restrictions on how they spend it."


Mtl JP  10:13:02 GMT - 07/16/2021  
EURO 1.1815
-
some data on NY calendar w/potential for some price-reaction from players

williams yak on deck


Mtl JP  22:34:28 GMT - 07/15/2021  
Tweet
Bloomberg Economics
@economics

LIVE: Powell says that current inflation "is not moderately above 2% by any stretch. This is well above 2%. And it's also not tied to the things that inflation is usually tied to which is a tight labor market, a tight economy, that kind of thing"

to hear jerome actually say it
is different from the written word
makes me wonder if he believes his own bs



Mtl JP  21:05:43 GMT - 07/15/2021  
schadenfreude
when dog eats monkey
-
"There’s blood on the floor for holders of popular meme stocks, but some bleeding retail traders only see a dip to buy."

Bloodied but unbowed, some retail traders holding meme stocks are fighting back after brutal week
By Thornton McEnery



Mtl JP  19:48:32 GMT - 07/15/2021  
almost as if to answer my Qtn:
-
“The bond market seems to be thinking that the Fed is going to get religion…about inflation,”

Bond King Jeff Gundlach says there is a simple reason Treasury yields are so low even as inflation surge
By Mark DeCambre



Mtl JP  19:28:25 GMT - 07/15/2021  
10-yr 1.30 (day range: 1.295 - 1.351)
-
on "inflation"
“This is a shock going through the system associated with reopening of the economy, and it has driven inflation well above 2%. And of course we’re not comfortable with that,” Powell

So with bond yielding 1.3 going forward my Qtn is:
buy or sell the bond ?


Mtl JP  18:50:42 GMT - 07/15/2021  
evans , like a good company boy
-
Fed's Evans says need more progress on employment before taper
- “Given the more recent months of lower employment growth than I was expecting, I would say that there are still things to assess in terms of substantial further progress that needs to be met for us to make adjustments in our monetary policy stance,”

- It will take “more than a couple of months” to sort out timing on when tapering will be appropriate - By Reuters Staff

Fed's Evans: taper bar could be met later this year - rtrs
- the bar for tapering asset purchases could be met "later this year."
- promised to continue to buy Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at its current pace of $120 billion a month until there is "substantial further progress" toward the Fed's goals of 2% inflation and full employment.
- still believes a first rate hike could be appropriate in early 2024

Inflation is going to ease. Just be patient, Chicago Fed’s Evans says - marketwatch
- thinks a surge in U.S. inflation this year will largely fade away by 2022
- compagnies are going about in “clever” ways to limit the long-term increase in their labor costs. Onetime bonuses have been particularly common
- “I am comfortable with where we are going and markets seem comfortable too,”


Mtl JP  12:55:24 GMT - 07/15/2021  
bunch of data this morning largely ignored

powell yaks again at 09:30. players may react to something that jerome may utter during the Qtn period that would qualify "surprise" (unlikely imo)

11:00 - evans yaks on the economy
unlikely to contradict jerome

with 10-yr yield at 1.326 and DLRx 92.52ish I am looking for dlr to pull down some

EURO 1.1802
S 1.18/1.1772
Res 1.1850/80
I am only slightly biased down


Mtl JP  11:50:46 GMT - 07/15/2021  
..."we are now in the early stages of a third wave. .. . .. The Delta variant is now in more than 111 countries and we expect it to soon be the dominant COVID-19 strain circulating worldwide, if it isn’t already. " ...

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the 8th meeting of the IHR Emergency Committee on COVID-19
14 July 2021
Professor Houssin,



Mtl JP  18:50:54 GMT - 07/14/2021  
looks like a concensus of perception of what powell said
-
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the economy is “a ways off” from where it needs to be for the central bank to change policy.

• “Conditions in the labor market have continued to improve, but there is still a long way to go,” he said, adding that inflation has “increased notably” due mostly to temporary factors.

Powell says the Fed is still a ways off from altering policy, expects inflation to moderate
Jeff Cox



Mtl JP  18:36:16 GMT - 07/14/2021  
Powell plays down direct link of Fed’s purchases of mortgage bonds and the spike in home prices
- Fed’s bond buying was not to blame and was only “a factor among factors.” Both supply and demand reasons were pushing home prices up

- “Mortgage backed security purchases really work a lot like Treasury purchases. They are not especially important in what is happening with housing prices,”

- the good news” on higher home prices is that “this is not driven by the kind of reckless, irresponsible lending that led to the housing bubble that led to the last financial crisis. Those kinds of things are not happening at least so far.” he said.


Mtl JP  17:11:57 GMT - 07/14/2021  
 
EURO 1.1833ish
-
currently I am considering the lower of the two red lines as Res


Mtl JP  16:29:35 GMT - 07/14/2021  
 
stocks not crazy enthusistic about powell's prognostications


Mtl JP  16:12:19 GMT - 07/14/2021  
transitory inflation according to powell
-
“will likely remain elevated in coming months" before “moderating."

about the economy: on track “to post its fastest rate of increase in decades.”

re hiring: “robust" but “is still a long way to go,”


Mtl JP  15:29:16 GMT - 07/14/2021  
the I know what is good for you globalists are out to get you
-
...“We’re not just faced with an industrial revolution, we’re also faced with an existential threat which is the climate crisis,” European Commission executive vice president and climate chief Frans Timmermans said a news briefing. “So you don’t have the luxury to say let’s very smoothly develop toward this change. We have to do it quite radically.” ...

(bbrg) EU’s Bold Climate Plan Targets Cars, Planes and Trade



Mtl JP  14:28:36 GMT - 07/14/2021  
a rouse ?
-
powell says

according to zh



PAR 13:56:53 GMT - 07/14/2021  
Powell as a real cheerleader will talk the stock market higher otherwise granny could fire him.


Mtl JP  13:28:13 GMT - 07/14/2021  
EURO 1.1818
-
Res 1.1820/40
Sup 1.1770, 40, 20, 00

Grand trend: still down


Mtl JP  12:48:17 GMT - 07/14/2021  
I am expecting
-
that players are expecting powell to keep to his general meme that
current price-inflation is transitory and that tapering the minimum 80 and minimum 40 monthly billions is far far away

Bottom Line
little more down for the usd
unless powel slips


Mtl JP  12:36:49 GMT - 07/14/2021  
USDCAD 1.2450
-
puppy rushing tackle old Support
break down --> 1.23x


Mtl JP  12:22:30 GMT - 07/14/2021  
timeline today
-
10am - BoC
12am - powell


Mtl JP  00:26:11 GMT - 07/14/2021  
how did she ever make it to Venice: sailboat ?
how will she make it back: row / swim ?
-
..."U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signaled she’ll prod multilateral development banks to rein in their lending for fossil fuels, part of a global effort to make the financial system greener.

Yellen said she will convene the heads of such institutions “to articulate our expectations that the MDBs align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement and net-zero goals as urgently as possible,” according to the text of a speech she was set to deliver at an international climate conference in Venice, Italy." .../..

globalists create new profit opportunities - currently brent at $76.30-ish, transocean at $4.26

Yellen Targets Curbs on Development Bank Support for Fossil Fuel
By Christopher Condon
July 11, 2021, 6:25 AM EDT



london red  18:07:20 GMT - 07/13/2021  
aapl msft looking to do the roundturn today. amzn already done it, in gravestone doji territory. first two have some work to do. would be nice to add to all three again but a bit lower.


Mtl JP  17:55:11 GMT - 07/13/2021  
I remember vividly when DJ was going for 10K
no other reason then than mass mania n euphoria


london red  17:37:18 GMT - 07/13/2021  
JP cos its the truth. everybody knows. but PAR might be on to something. that 15k deserves a pullback. its such a nice round number.


Mtl JP  15:54:44 GMT - 07/13/2021  
red 13:40 one thing I do not like is that players collective assumes that the FED gang does not want to upset the market, at least not willfully


Mtl JP  15:47:35 GMT - 07/13/2021  
USDCAD 1.2513
-
BoC tomorrow; looks like they ll be peddling more tapering.
I am biased DOwn and not only because USD rally has pettered out

1.2450 not too far;
below another ~100pips plus-ou-moins


PAR 14:07:01 GMT - 07/13/2021  
Inflation is a problem for the poor and the US middle class.

Not for Wall Street and speech-giving central bankers.

So who cares?


Mtl JP  13:44:29 GMT - 07/13/2021  
red I concur


london red  13:40:17 GMT - 07/13/2021  
JP, mkt looking for powell to say tomorrow "we aint doing $hit" "transitory" etc


Mtl JP  13:31:55 GMT - 07/13/2021  
at noon nyt: FEDs on Racism and the Economy

might be a hint on what jerome is going to utilize to re/explain their "subtle" difference why their pursuit of "maximum" employement is better than persuit of "full" employment (one of the 2 alleged mandates)


Mtl JP  13:21:16 GMT - 07/13/2021  
looks like 10-yr has seen its HoD yield
as "risk" trying to make a come back up


Mtl JP  12:39:56 GMT - 07/13/2021  
10-yr 1.373

some parts of ecomy's players like the prospect of (price) inflation no doubt , as pricing power is highly desired


london red  12:37:12 GMT - 07/13/2021  
rotation v. 134589 says ft100


Mtl JP  12:36:21 GMT - 07/13/2021  
 
initial stocks reaction is to not like prospect of higher cost of money


HK Kevin  12:32:25 GMT - 07/13/2021  
US annual CPI inflation jumps to 5.4% in June vs. 4.9% expected


Mtl JP  12:29:29 GMT - 07/13/2021  
10-yr 1.353%

just ahead of CPI, I dont care about the long details
algos likely react to headline


Mtl JP  09:42:07 GMT - 07/13/2021  
US 10-yr 1.369%
CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern
-
"Economists polled by FactSet anticipate a 4.9% increase in overall CPI for June from a year earlier and a 0.5% increase from a month earlier. That’s down a touch from the 5% and 0.6% respective increases reported in May.

Excluding food and energy, economists see a 4% year-over-year rise and a 0.4% month-over-month gain in consumer prices. The so-called core numbers rose at 3.8% and 0.7% clips, respectively, during May."

Of more importance than correctly anticipating the CPI is to correctly anticipate player reaction (by way of attitude change toward the 10-yr, for exmpl)


Mtl JP  09:11:48 GMT - 07/13/2021  
watson to sherlock:
-
June Inflation Figures Are Coming Later This Morning. Here's What to Watch. Barron's

European stocks tread water after French and German data release, as eyes turn to key U.S. inflation measure MarketWatch

good. but not good nuff to not get caught and punished:
“Motivated by greed, this defendant attempted to use digital advances to hide his old-fashioned fraud,” said Tessa Gorman, the acting U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Washington state “At all phases — from accessing the dark web, to loading stolen data onto digital wallets, to acquiring prepaid anonymous phones, to adopting aliases, to laundering money through anonymous cryptocurrency accounts — his operation was sophisticated and difficult to detect. But ultimately law enforcement stopped him in his tracks.”

Identity thief used burner phones and Apple Pay to buy diamond-encrusted bitcoin medallion — and actual bitcoin too MarketWatch

now if only law enforcement would go after ____ ...


Mtl JP  00:33:29 GMT - 07/13/2021  
re powel's ... "until �substantial further progress� is made" ...

Jon Hilsenrath and Sarah Chaney Cambon WSJ ask:

"Millions of Americans say they can’t find a job. Millions of employers say they can’t find workers. A reason for this mismatch is that people are leaving cities or industries where businesses need them most."

Job Openings Are at Record Highs. Why Aren’t Unemployed Americans Filling Them?



Mtl JP  21:31:54 GMT - 07/12/2021  
 
SPX 4383.63 (-20% = __)
needs some reliable indicator:

As some of the pundit quotes Jeff included, powell's delivery is not really for congress rather cypher message communication to players: ..."does not expect, that Powell will provide some clear path to the exit from the current level of policy support."
-
Jeff Cox:
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to Congress this week in an update on monetary policy.
• Part of his task will be selling the Fed’s still-easy policies in the wake of a strong economy and surging inflation.
• Powell has vowed that the current stance will remain intact until “substantial further progress” is made towards the Fed’s employment and inflation goals.

Fed Chair Powell charged with convincing Congress this week that easy policy is still needed



Mtl JP  20:37:25 GMT - 07/12/2021  
10-yr 1.366%, DLRx 92.215
-
CNBC:
• Inflation expectations surge, hitting new high for New York Fed survey
• ‘Inflation is the silent killer,’ as many retirees are feeling the sting
• Fed Chair Powell charged with convincing Congress this week that easy policy is still needed
• Homebuyers are finally catching a break as new listings rise and mortgage rates drop


Mtl JP  20:18:01 GMT - 07/12/2021  
"Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite post another trifecta of record closes Monday"

34996,18: "Dow narrowly msses first finish above 35,000"


Mtl JP  13:26:01 GMT - 07/12/2021  
10-yr 1.348
DLRx 92.28
EURO 1.1855
-
I am assuming market trades around the 10-yr's yield
For USD to materially pop uP yield will have to rise. Currently puppy looks like it has topped out, looking at last week's priceaction.
IF USD pops uP, it ll do it relatively to the Euro.

CPI tomorrow, powell on Wed & Th

EURO - slightly bearish.
Res 1.1880/1.19
Sup 1.1825ish, 1.18


Mtl JP  22:36:31 GMT - 07/11/2021  
EURO 1.1872
-
slightly off its 1.1880 high
I maintain a down bias, beyond a possible stop-hunt / cantankerous probe of 1.19 I see no sustaining energy for higher

-----

"G-20 signs off on tax crackdown, warns on virus variants" cnbc 10/07/2021

then on cue - Yellen (she did not take a sailboat):
"We are very concerned about the Delta variant and other variants that could emerge and threaten recovery," she told reporters following a G20 meeting in Venice, Italy, on Sunday, according to Agence France-Presse.

**

Bloomberg
"S&P 500 Perfect Earnings Record Is on the Line With Peak Growth"

Bloomberg
"Biggest Bond Rally in a Year Stalls With Short Wagers Washed Out"
(help 200day Sup)

Bloomberg
"Wall Street’s Math Whizzes Are Racing to Wire Up the Bond Market"


Mtl JP  07:16:02 GMT - 07/10/2021  
greed still alive and apparently doing well
-
"Crypto Scammers Rip Off Billions as Pump-and-Dump Schemes Go Digital
Billions are getting pilfered annually through a variety of cryptocurrency scams. The way things are going, this will only get worse."
bbrg

parasites, too, apparently having a good year (while they can)
-
"Real Estate Agents Target Record $100 Billion as Home Sales Boom"
bbrg


Mtl JP  18:10:35 GMT - 07/09/2021  
 
EURO 1.1873
-
hunter and huntee
dog eat dog


Mtl JP  17:53:05 GMT - 07/09/2021  
Next week
-
June CPI print (likely show cooling)
a deluge of Fedyakkers
Powell on Th - baffle Congress w/blsht


Mtl JP  17:34:08 GMT - 07/09/2021  
sooo ... what numbers would you like sir, madame ?
-
Inflation. Consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12-month change in the PCE price index, moved up from 1.2 percent at the end of last year to 3.9 percent in May. The 12-month measure of inflation that excludes food and energy items (so-called core inflation) was 3.4 percent in May, up from 1.4 percent at the end of last year. Some of the strength in recent 12-month inflation readings reflects the comparison of current prices with prices that sank at the onset of the pandemic as households curtailed spending—a transitory result of “base effects.” More lasting but likely still temporary upward pressure on inflation has come from prices for goods experiencing supply chain bottlenecks, such as motor vehicles and appliances. .. . .. are in a range that is broadly consistent with the FOMC’s longer-run inflation objective."

Monetary Policy report July 9, 2021
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System



Mtl JP  15:29:50 GMT - 07/09/2021  
EURO 1.1864
-
mini-rally appears over against 1.1867 inside overall and still prevailing down trend - no rocket fuel , not this week, not next week, to power the euro higher

Res 1.1870/1.19
Sup 1.1825/20, 1.18, 1.1780


Mtl JP  10:51:17 GMT - 07/09/2021  
US 10-yr 1.338%
-
headlines screaming "rates stabilize"
ok. "risk" should respond positively


Mtl JP  09:08:45 GMT - 07/09/2021  
SnP 4328
-
a slight bid tone as 4300 - sofar - held overnite

headlines:
"Asian stocks track losses on Wall Street with investors wary"
"Dallas Fed Chief Robert Kaplan on Why the Fed Should (Slowly) Back Off"


PAR 06:47:29 GMT - 07/09/2021  
As expected PPT did a good job.

Raise stop on long S&P to 4310.

We'll see.



Mtl JP  01:43:14 GMT - 07/09/2021  
SnP at 4300 ...
FTSE down in sympathy


Mtl JP  00:57:00 GMT - 07/09/2021  
 
once burnt twice shy
-
looking at SnP -- puppy tried - apparently tentatively - to pop N of 4315
but at now 4306 is awful close to 4300 and then 4280 which was prev day low


Mtl JP  20:20:29 GMT - 07/08/2021  
10-yr 1.297%

DAY RANGE: 1.246 - 1.323


Mtl JP  20:06:56 GMT - 07/08/2021  
for the record
-
Nasdaq Composite ends down 0.7%
S&P 500 finishes 0.9% lower
Dow sheds 263 points, ends off 0.8%
- MarketWatch


Mtl JP  17:40:07 GMT - 07/08/2021  
hear her scream
-
"Elizabeth Warren warns crypto ‘scams continue to surge’ on exchanges, calls for SEC regulation"


london red  15:50:30 GMT - 07/08/2021  
JP, in uk most infections now are yound and or unvaccinated. so extrapolate that...delta will effect those not vaccinated. so emerging market. if you take usd as vaccination trade, then short em currencies where not vaccinated in large numbers.


Mtl JP  15:23:25 GMT - 07/08/2021  
IF the delta variant goes wildfire globally, that should consequate in non-negligible global risk to global overall econ growth.

which raises the Qtn of how to position for profit on the theme.
I am thinking long DLR; views welcome, tia


london red  15:18:26 GMT - 07/08/2021  
uk has 30k a day infected, yet less than 40 dead. go back a year ago and when there were 30k infected it was 700 dead a day. what changed? vaccine came in. so delta may not be a non event as a few will still die, but it will not lead to fresh lockdowns where the vaccine is prevalent. fwiw uk has about 80% of adults vaccinated at least once and 65% twice.


Mtl JP  15:14:06 GMT - 07/08/2021  
"Delta Variant Is The Dominant U.S. Covid-19 Strain "

how convenient ...
and so "there is more to do"
... it never ends


Mtl JP  15:08:12 GMT - 07/08/2021  
out earlier so just for the record:

"Initial Jobless Claims Tick Up, but the Layoff Trendline Still Points Down"


london red  13:30:35 GMT - 07/08/2021  
f 13.90. fills gap


Mtl JP  12:52:07 GMT - 07/08/2021  
EURO 1.1850-ish
-
current rally reflects stress in market inside still overall nega-trend

Res here at 1.1850, then 1.1880 and 1.19
Sup 1.1810/00/~1.1780


Mtl JP  11:15:15 GMT - 07/08/2021  
"European Central Bank sets its inflation target at 2% in new policy review

... The ECB currently works to achieve an inflation level of “below, but close to, 2%.” Going forward, the official inflation goal will become 2% with possible overshoots allowed." ...


Mtl JP  11:07:03 GMT - 07/08/2021  
FED's "modestly compensated" agent:
-
"BlackRock: Neutral on U.S. stocks, likes cyclicals, Europe and Japan markets - CNBC


HK Kevin  09:37:21 GMT - 07/08/2021  
london red 09:13 GMT, agree today's close is crucial. I wonder this wave of falling bond yield is due to capital from developing countries seeking for safe heaven, fueled by FOMC minutes yesterday. IMVHO, US continues to dictate the world with higher US dlr, lower bond yield and ever-rising US stock prices.


london red  09:13:10 GMT - 07/08/2021  
Kevin, i see your gap so its a poss tgt but it looks like a return to breakout level 0.95-1.00 is on the cards. its such a strong move lower regardless of economic data beating or missing. its just relentless. you need to see a move of at least 10 points off the low and a strong close to the week to call a bottom otherwise it will just keep going down. its a head scratcher as to why its going but why isnt a requirement for direction. while its falling best not to call bottom until it stops.


HK Kevin  08:51:31 GMT - 07/08/2021  
london red 08:14 GMT, does 12 Feb high 1.2130 a key support for 10 year bond yield? I see a gap high opening on 15 Feb. 


PAR 08:38:43 GMT - 07/08/2021  
Don't panic. Don't panic. Don't panic.... Panic. GET ME OUT.


PAR 08:16:39 GMT - 07/08/2021  
Looks like ECB is buying stock index futures for the PPT to stabilize markets as US futures drop almost 1%.


london red  08:14:33 GMT - 07/08/2021  
yield on the 10 is still crashing and now at a key point. soon there will be a 1.00 target is doesnt find support soon. so ft100 being value based gets double timed. they are trying to avoid hrly close below 7065. if fails then 7k next


Mtl JP  08:10:55 GMT - 07/08/2021  
 
London appears to "understand" FOMC minutes differently


Mtl JP  07:23:56 GMT - 07/08/2021  
 
NY giveth
London taketh

fratelli di profitto


Mtl JP  00:49:44 GMT - 07/08/2021  
post-minutes
-
Fed's Bostic says tapering will be gradual, and that central bank is watching progress of delta variant - MarketWatch

Fed's Bostic Says Time to Taper Is Growing Nearer, but Won't Put Date on It - The Wall Street Journal


Mtl JP  23:42:51 GMT - 07/07/2021  
cnbc headline:
-
"Biden’s plans to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy are losing momentum"


I guess it is better

to be wealthy or corporation


Mtl JP  21:06:52 GMT - 07/07/2021  
here comes the gimme gimme gimmetoo crowd
-
"As stimulus check petition hits 2.5 million signatures, Americans ask: ‘Will there be a fourth payment?’" - cnbc


GVI Forex 14:41:24 GMT - 07/07/2021  
 
Here is what I mean by signs of an AT bottom (eurgbp)


GVI Forex 14:34:51 GMT - 07/07/2021  
 
Look at this AT chart - choices are either short or step aside if you do not want to sell until AT tells you a bottom is in.

Whatever the case, the blue lines indicate an imbalance to the downside. Note similar charts in other pairs.

AT Strategies



GVI Forex 13:41:13 GMT - 07/07/2021  
Newsquawk reported talk of stops below 1.1795 area AT charts show a void of key levrls until lower 1.17s, which means LOD takes on added significance.


Mtl JP  13:37:05 GMT - 07/07/2021  
EURO 1.1806
-
technically oversold
looking to challenge 1.1800 Sup
bellow 1.1775-ish zone trgt
Res 1.1835/50


Mtl JP  12:04:35 GMT - 07/07/2021  
 
RISK 4343
-
climbing n climbing on small pullbacks
climbing the proverbial wall-o-worry ?

otherwise have lurking suspicion players are gunning for 4400


Mtl JP  11:52:34 GMT - 07/07/2021  
14:00est - FOMC Minutes
-
could make for long day bit like war:
long moments of boredom, short period of desperation


Mtl JP  10:37:38 GMT - 07/07/2021  
10-yr 1.345; DLRx 92.53
-
Bloomberg
Fed Minutes of June FOMC Under Scrutiny for Taper-Timing Hints

..."Fed has been buying $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month. ... ..."Analysts will be combing through the minutes for details on tapering, including when it could start and what the pace might be -- though that level of discussion might be more likely at upcoming Fed meetings, including its gathering later this month."...

and players will be trying to skin profits from market reaction
fratelli di profitto


Mtl JP  09:48:44 GMT - 07/07/2021  
ahead of NY session
-
Bloomberg
Futures Rise With Stocks Ahead of Fed Minutes


Mtl JP  07:40:28 GMT - 07/07/2021  
10-yr 1.349%
DLRx 92.53
EURO 1.1813
-
Puppy continues to be lacking enthusiasts after the clear n quick rejection against 1.19.
Sideways wallow currently, bound by Res 1.1845 and Sup 1.18

Sentiment around the dollar is the dominant driving energy;
player mood towards the euro appears one of ambivalence, needs new catalyst


Mtl JP  23:22:50 GMT - 07/06/2021  
Biden says
global ransomware attack had minimal impact on U.S. businesses


Mtl JP  22:07:53 GMT - 07/06/2021  
between CB 21:34 and red 19:27 it appears only a matter of timing of a shift of buying by enthousiastes answering "who is left to buy?"

"cycles".. "episodes" .. rotation .. timing


dc CB  21:34:40 GMT - 07/06/2021  
 
just took 10 mins after it opened at 9:30AM EDT.
Rain in the Plains.
(The Weather Channel)


london red  19:27:00 GMT - 07/06/2021  
dont think especially short. its coming out of a long sidewaysd pattern and today is the break day that algos buy. of course to best way to approach these big tech sleepy periods is buying the mid to bottom of range and holding.


Mtl JP  19:04:52 GMT - 07/06/2021  
 
red was the market short ?


london red  18:42:37 GMT - 07/06/2021  
with just over an hour to go looks like amzn finally breaking out. a close above its previous past peak targets a move to over 4k. last time it made a break higher from a similar consolidation period it was over 10% higher after 3 days and almost 50% higher 3 months later


Mtl JP  18:09:10 GMT - 07/06/2021  
 
well well well, what a flexible mind


london red  14:54:29 GMT - 07/06/2021  
HK Kevin 14:38 GMT 07/06/2021
big tech helping mine today but if they spin by the close then we are looking at bigger falls as a few are them are ready to pullback and or will show break failures in case of amazon.


Mtl JP  14:44:46 GMT - 07/06/2021  
I can see some freaking out over disastrous price action at the sight of US long term yields in the toilet


Mtl JP  14:42:37 GMT - 07/06/2021  
 
stock pukeout over


HK Kevin  14:38:22 GMT - 07/06/2021  
london red 14:26 GMT, NKE & SPEC save my stock portfolio


london red  14:26:50 GMT - 07/06/2021  
but amazon breaking out to a new high from a long sideway trend. unless this reverses by end of day, its unlikely there will be a huge sell off (fangs 25% of s&p) but rather more rotation from value into tech.


GVI Forex 14:21:19 GMT - 07/06/2021  
Risk off...


Mtl JP  14:06:41 GMT - 07/06/2021  
lower cost of money and snp heaving some
is incongruent
one is wrong


london red  14:01:43 GMT - 07/06/2021  
1.3670 is where the 10 should bounce. if not is likely to crash thru recent low of 1.35 and test 1.25. that would prob mean lower stocks for a day or two but hard to see that unless big tech which is up 1-3% on day reverses by end of day.


GVI Forex 13:58:19 GMT - 07/06/2021  
Oil is down and US yields continue to slip (1.382% 10 year) - fx is not sure what to do with it, watch AT for guideance.


GVI Forex 12:51:08 GMT - 07/06/2021  
Look at EURGBP as the real money flow driving it today.

How do we know there are real money flows? When currencies move in the opposite direction (eurusd down, gbpusd up), we can infer that real money flows are behind the moves.

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  12:46:07 GMT - 07/06/2021  
EURO 1.1845-ish
DLRx allover the place uP here Down there
-
ISM at 10am (FOMC mins tom likely more important to players)

Euro Res:1.19; Sup 1.1830/00
feels to me like another ying-yang waste of time trading day


Mtl JP  11:34:14 GMT - 07/06/2021  
10-yr 1.427%
-
should favor more UP in "risk"
should see DLR down some
(and euro uP some, relatively speaking)


kl fs  05:03:00 GMT - 07/06/2021  
looks like gold has made bottom last week for the second half of the year?


Mtl JP  14:24:50 GMT - 07/05/2021  
EURO 1.1858
-
unexciting session as puppy holds under 1.19
DLRx generaly and ever so slightly down on reletive basis


Mtl JP  09:36:54 GMT - 07/05/2021  
... could ...
-
• The Fourth of July holiday week looks like a sleeper for stocks, with little data and quiet pre-earnings season trading.

• But the Fed releases the minutes from its last meeting where it revealed it was starting to talk about cutting back on its bond buying. If there are more details, it could move markets.

• Stocks gained in the past week, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record highs after Friday�s employment report showed 850,000 payrolls were added in June.

Fed could be a surprise catalyst for the markets in holiday week
Patti Domm



Mtl JP  15:55:47 GMT - 07/04/2021  
some headlines
-
Bloomberg
ECB’s Schnabel Says Temporary Inflation Overshoot Necessary

Bloomberg
Investors Don’t See End to Record-Breaking Equity Rally Just Yet

Bloomberg
It’s the Beginning of the End of Easy Money

Bloomberg
Treasury Traders Brace for Volatility With Debt-Limit Chaos Near


Mtl JP  10:52:38 GMT - 07/04/2021  
CCP's 100th
claim to fame:
-
5.8 million dollar-millionaires,
approximately 21,000 proud material owners of $50,000,000 or more


Mtl JP  20:17:21 GMT - 07/02/2021  
Is the stock market closed for the July Fourth holiday?

Here’s what you need to know



Mtl JP  20:01:32 GMT - 07/02/2021  
red some stocks are societally as essential as - for example - water


london red  19:26:47 GMT - 07/02/2021  
fwiw msft i dont think its a short. maybe theres 10% downside. im still long just less so. you gotta take em from time to time that is all. maybe it sees 250-260 before it sees 300 is all.


london red  19:24:44 GMT - 07/02/2021  
cut some msft here by 278. top of channel. mad run from mean to where we are today suggests either top today or a bear candle false break tuesday. good news is if i am wrong, the mkt is about to begin a massive run higher short squeeze type run.


Mtl JP  17:23:36 GMT - 07/02/2021  
EURO 1.1852-ish
-
atm back to what previously was Sup level
by one tech indicator below 1.1840 puppy is "oversold"

Sup 1.1810/00; Res 1.1860/85


Mtl JP  00:16:09 GMT - 07/02/2021  
maybe why the deficit is considered just a temporary transitional tool , like a bridge, until

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund raised its 2021 U.S. growth projection sharply to 7.0% due to a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and an assumption that much of President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and social spending plans will be enacted."



Mtl JP  20:27:34 GMT - 07/01/2021  
"U.S. budget deficit will hit $3 trillion this year, CBO projects"

also a "$ucce$$"


Mtl JP  20:17:09 GMT - 07/01/2021  
"S&P 500 books 35th record close of 2021 while the Dow marks fourth-highest finish in its history" - MarketWatch

some would call it "$ucce$$"


GVI Forex 17:50:55 GMT - 07/01/2021  
The CB party line

Pound Declines As BoE Bailey Dismisses Inflation Concerns


GVI Forex 17:33:28 GMT - 07/01/2021  
AUD/USD extends slide to fresh 2021 low


Mtl JP  17:14:46 GMT - 07/01/2021  
DLRx 92.50
-
appears good Res
famous last words


Mtl JP  11:36:59 GMT - 07/01/2021  
inflation // transitory or
sufficiently high prices are self correcting
-
"Lumber prices dive more than 40% in June, biggest monthly drop on record" - cnbc


dc CB  18:03:51 GMT - 06/30/2021  
Today's RevRepo
the last one in June, the quarter and the half

Just shy of the One Trillion Dollar mark...Golly, there seem to be a ton-o-treasuries in the hands of "certified counterparties", along witha growing number of 'sainted ones/aka Cardinals in the Church of Ponzi.

Accepted Counterparties: 90
991.939 Billion dollars


Mtl JP  17:01:53 GMT - 06/30/2021  
10-yr 1.444
-
lower yield should help usd dip some
but no guarantee


Mtl JP  16:47:56 GMT - 06/30/2021  
EURO 1.1849ish
-
betting the dip is mostly over; going long here
see if DLRx holds 92.50 Res


GVI Forex 13:48:55 GMT - 06/30/2021  
Weaker than expected Chi PMI . No Fx reaction.


Mtl JP  09:03:50 GMT - 06/30/2021  
 
SnP at Sup here
-
old 80/20 Natural law at work ?
80% of time to build
20% of time to destroy

In Nature, bones are usually the last thing to "dis-appear"


Mtl JP  08:44:00 GMT - 06/30/2021  
DLRx ~92.10
10-yr 1.469%
-
dlr uP and N of its 200-day
does not look like dlt uP motivated by return
maybe trying to price NFP miss vs exp'tion

***
FED's experts' outlook and reflation yapping on the line


Mtl JP  02:11:20 GMT - 06/30/2021  
to h3ll with contract
-
(wsj) Supreme Court Declines to Lift National Eviction Moratorium
The high court rejected landlords' emergency request to suspend enforcement of the moratorium imposed by the CDC.


GVI Forex 14:11:59 GMT - 06/29/2021  
US bond yields are not reacting to stronger US consumer confidence. 10 year last 1.485%


GVI Forex 12:06:42 GMT - 06/29/2021  
Keep an eye on EURGBP — off its high has seen EURUSD extend its low while GBPUSD lags

The Amazing Trader



GVI Forex 11:12:27 GMT - 06/29/2021  
Look at EURGBP (I strongly suggest getting access to AT), as a driver of GBPUS (Down) and EURUSD (down with a lag)

The Amazing Trader



GVI Forex 11:12:27 GMT - 06/29/2021  
Look at EURGBP (I strongly suggest getting access to AT), as a driver of GBPUS (Down) and EURUSD (down with a lag)

The Amazing Trader



GVI Forex 11:12:27 GMT - 06/29/2021  
Look at EURGBP (I strongly suggest getting access to AT), as a driver of GBPUS (Down) and EURUSD (down with a lag)

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  10:10:32 GMT - 06/29/2021  
Brent 73.98 says dlr's purchasing power is uP some


Mtl JP  08:40:47 GMT - 06/29/2021  
and , according to Dow Jones, "China’s central bank to make monetary policy more targeted, flexible" to boot

how "more targeted" is "flexible" escapes my non-PhD cerebrum


Mtl JP  08:33:46 GMT - 06/29/2021  
in the meantime
"World Bank raises China growth outlook to 8.5%"


Mtl JP  21:30:58 GMT - 06/28/2021  
US 10-yr: 1.478%
at end of day about 17:30 NYT


Mtl JP  16:37:02 GMT - 06/28/2021  
10-yr 1.473%
around time of the lack of faith survey
for reference


Mtl JP  16:29:34 GMT - 06/28/2021  
oh oh-ooohh ...
there probably is no worse news for the FED peddlers and purveyors of bullsh!t

• CFOs at companies around the globe are worried about input costs and wage inflation, according to the Q2 CNBC Global CFO Council survey, and in the U.S., more financial officers say price hikes may be needed if the inflationary trends remain in place.

• North America-based CFOs express little confidence in the Fed to control inflation, but their view of the near-term future for stocks is more optimistic, with the majority expecting the Dow to reach 40,000 rather than sell off, and bond yields expected to rise moderately into the end of the year.

Corporate America lacks faith in the Fed to control inflation as prices peak: Survey
JUN 28 20211 by Eric Rosenbaum



Mtl JP  16:07:23 GMT - 06/28/2021  
would a purely technical trader suffer same agony as baird ?

"Baird suspends GameStop stock coverage, citing continued Reddit influence and lack of company plan" - cnbc


Mtl JP  13:48:09 GMT - 06/28/2021  
 
having fun yet ?


Mtl JP  13:24:38 GMT - 06/28/2021  
williams ycurrently akking at a BIS pannel yikyak

at noon nyt yaks barkin
about "inflation risk"
that should be fun


Mtl JP  13:12:40 GMT - 06/28/2021  
EURO 1.1920,
bouncing off 1.1900, does not mean it reacted to some weidmann hawkyak

so puppy is now prancing essentially in a 50-pip range.
In a longer than 5-60min time frame I am tilting towards the 1.1950 breakout side. eventually.


Mtl JP  11:29:39 GMT - 06/28/2021  
more bullsh.t about 2 percent inflation target
-
“It’s very important for us to get back to our 2 percent inflation target but the goal is for that to be sustainable. And for that to be sustainable, we can’t have a boom and bust cycle in something like real estate.”—

Greg Robb asked Fed Chair Jerome Powell in April about the fact the central bank was buying mortgage-backed securities, which was helping to boost the housing market.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren



PAR  18:08:38 GMT - 06/27/2021  
Private equity is even crazier then the stock markets.
Free money created unicorns as never seen before.


Mtl JP  14:38:43 GMT - 06/27/2021  
apocalypse in UK ?
britts going to don goat or sheep costume and go grazing ?
-
U.K. Faces Food Shortages as Worker Scarcity Gets Worse

(Bloomberg) -- From abattoirs to restaurant kitchens, the U.K. food sector is facing a massive challenge this summer: there just aren’t enough workers.

The food industry, already facing labor shortages because of Brexit and the pandemic, is now being stretched to capacity as the country reopens. Meat processors are cutting production and a “catastrophic” dearth of drivers is disrupting food deliveries to supermarkets. Warehouses and farms are short of labor too, threatening to choke food supply flows, while local pubs and Michelin-starred restaurants are having to restrict service and boost wages for chefs and waiting staff. .../.


Mtl JP  11:16:22 GMT - 06/27/2021  
Near-term global bond market correction likely-strategists: Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters June 24 2021) - A significant global bond market correction is likely in the next three months as central bankers eye the exit door from pandemic emergency policy, according to a Reuters poll of strategists who also forecast modestly higher yields in a year. .../.

Reuters Poll: Major sovereign bond yields outlook



Mtl JP  11:07:37 GMT - 06/27/2021  
Haters Everywhere in Stock Market After S&P 500’s Big First Half

(Bloomberg June 25, 2021) -- People were already worried about equities six months ago. Now, after the S&P 500 Index defied everything from nosebleed valuations to inflation to post one of the best first halves ever, they’re downright paranoid.

Wall Street strategists, never ones to restrain their enthusiasm when it’s warranted, warn that the gains have played out. Short sellers are circling, with wagers against the largest equity exchange-traded fund rising to the highest level this year. Star investors like Michael Burry have warned of the “mother of all crashes” in meme stocks .../..


Mtl JP  15:37:31 GMT - 06/25/2021  
"We should see a lot more labor supply in the fall," Kashkari

**

"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has received the public backing of a majority of colleagues for his view that the recent inflation surge will fade, even as some policy makers question that stance and see the need for interest-rate hikes next year.

Remarks by numerous officials since the U.S. central bank’s June 15-16 meeting show a debate over how long inflationary pressures will last. For now, the coalition around Powell’s position appears to have the upper hand." .../..

Powell Inflation View Backed by Fed Majority in Rate Debate




Mtl JP  14:19:11 GMT - 06/25/2021  
yet SnP is rising


GVI Forex 14:16:26 GMT - 06/25/2021  
10 year is back above 1.50% (1.505%)


PAR  13:56:49 GMT - 06/25/2021  
This week all US economic numbers were a little softer
than expected. I don't see a booming US economy.
I think more helicopter money will be needed.
It looks rather bad for the June unemployment figures contrary to Powell's predictions of a strong labor
market.

Stock market moves higher on low rates forever.


Mtl JP  13:54:20 GMT - 06/25/2021  
EURO 1.1968

so far attempt at 1.1970 Res repulsed

DLRx 91.53 needs to rip down below 91.50


Mtl JP  13:02:49 GMT - 06/25/2021  
If not when , maybe at least where

Wouldn’t it be great to know when financial crises are about to happen?

The U.S. is the country most vulnerable to a new financial crisis, Nomura warns



Mtl JP  12:52:10 GMT - 06/25/2021  
..."legally obliged to align its policies with the Paris Agreement" ...

Big Oil’s increasing number of climate lawsuits draws parallels to Big Tobacco



london red  12:38:34 GMT - 06/25/2021  
a lot of data to chew through but sometimes first look first assumption is the correct one. everyone expecting hyperinflation but the data is reasonable. bonds are not going to be seeing 1.50 today if anything they will had lower. i dont think they can retest 1.35 today but that should be the direction after the data. as for stocks, techs to do better than value again today. infrastructure has been higher since last night, but will it be better to travel than arrive given value is weak generally. a reason to sell maybe.


Mtl JP  12:38:26 GMT - 06/25/2021  
fwiw
-
12-month rate of change in PCE core advances to 3.4% from 3.1%
12-month rate of PCE index climbs to 3.9% from 3.4%
- MarketWatch


GVI Forex 12:24:54 GMT - 06/25/2021  
From the AT Forum

Friday
GVI Forex 11:50 GMT 06/25/2021 - My Profile
The main flow seems to be in EURGBP (up) after the BOE dented the GBP balloon yesterday.Watch your AT charts.


GVI Forex 10:38:36 GMT - 06/25/2021  
JP, The Amazing Trader (AT) will give a clue when an imbalance is building and signal when there is a directional risk = opportunity to trade .

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  10:03:38 GMT - 06/25/2021  
Jay "Stay alert." sounds like a trade opp for gain instead
which side is most vulnerable ?

8:30 - PCE for May
-- UofM (cons sentiment)
--- plus a rainshower of FED's "truth" propaganda peddlers on deck
--- (notably NyFed's williams)


GVI Forex 09:02:29 GMT - 06/25/2021  
Is it a summer Friday or the chop this week that has turned it quiet. As I have said in the past and repeated recently,

Stay alert. Markets move when least expected. In other words, complacency can be a trader’s worst enemy.


Mtl JP  00:58:29 GMT - 06/25/2021  
yess !
-
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday released the results of its annual bank stress tests, which showed that large banks continue to have strong capital levels and could continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession

Federal Reserve Board releases results of annual bank stress tests, which show that large banks continue to have strong capital levels and could continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession
June 24



GVI Forex 14:52:44 GMT - 06/24/2021  
18 years later and one our GV star traders words still resonates and describe the earlier price action. I have taken this one step further using AT

LA Mel 15:04 GMT February 26, 2003 Reply
euro seems bid in an offered market now....



Mtl JP  10:08:16 GMT - 06/24/2021  
free profit opportunity suggestion:

"Gun Sales Are Coming Under Scrutiny. Smith & Wesson Stock Is Poised to Pop Higher." - Barron's

SWBI $28.76 (June 23)


Mtl JP  09:45:31 GMT - 06/24/2021  
DLRx 91.73
euro 1.1938 , basically limping atm
-
bit of a risk-on this morning
SnP all-time high 4,257.16
sofar


Mtl JP  20:30:03 GMT - 06/23/2021  
there was a time he was revered
-
(Reuters) John McAfee found dead in prison after Spanish court allows extradition


Mtl JP  20:22:05 GMT - 06/23/2021  
EURO 1.1923
-
lagarde's yak - whatever it was - passed by the market like a ship at night


dc CB  17:45:30 GMT - 06/23/2021  
today's Treasury auction of $61BN in 5 year paper, has come in quite weak in the aftermath of last week's hawkish FOMC pivot.

One day after we got a tailing, disappointing 2Y auction, we got a carbon-copy only this time at the 5Y tenor, when the US sold the latest batch of 5Y paper at a high yield of 0.904%, a sharp jump from last month's 0.788%, the highest 5Y auction yield in 16 months since the pre-covid Feb 2020 auction, and a 0.2bps tail to the When Issued 0.902%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/disappointing-5y-auction-tails-yield-jumps-16-month-high


dc CB  17:42:29 GMT - 06/23/2021  
Today's RevRepo
Accepted Counterparties: 73
813.573 Billion Dollars
Rate 0.05%
__________________________
Breaking NEWS
... a pedestrian bridge across I-295 in Northeast Washington, DC has collapsed.
The bridge collapsed around 1230ET, leaving 6 injured - 4 of which were rushed to hospital while 2 were treated at the scene.

NBC



Mtl JP  16:52:43 GMT - 06/23/2021  
GBP 1.3966
-
looks like nigel jubbs is romping around today
in gbp's case 1.40 un-equivocally rejected
see if yesty's 1.3965 holds S, below 25ish S



Mtl JP  16:47:02 GMT - 06/23/2021  
I think

Syd wr 07:19 GMT June 17, 2021 ... I am privy to the flows.

is a definite advantage


PAR 15:20:18 GMT - 06/23/2021  
Mtl. Thanks


Mtl JP  15:06:21 GMT - 06/23/2021  
PAR 14:16 around some cardinal price points my robot uses rate of price change - bit like an ABS - to gage to leap on the movement or not


PAR  14:16:46 GMT - 06/23/2021  
Mtl. Why didn't you buy Euros?


HK Kevin  14:11:29 GMT - 06/23/2021  
Think EUR 1.1985-95 and GBP 1.4040-60 are the targets of this round upmove


Mtl JP  14:01:25 GMT - 06/23/2021  
EURO 1.1967
-
Bull tone on break N of 50.
some Res around 85 +
S 1.1910/00


Mtl JP  13:33:57 GMT - 06/23/2021  
I too may speculate
-
Fed's Bowman:

Bottlenecks, high inflation, may take time to ease



Mtl JP  12:56:12 GMT - 06/23/2021  
DLRx 91.62

puppy now looking weak as players were nursed back from their enthusiastic delusional rally (by powell mester williams)

PMI in about an hour
bunch of "taper" erasers scheduled to yak some more
also lagarde at noon nyt


I am biased usd (down)


Mtl JP  11:31:41 GMT - 06/23/2021  
"We can and must safeguard the financial system
-- yellen October 9, 2013"

so ... that is how they do it :
-
WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - The country's largest lenders are poised to start issuing as much as $130 billion in dividends and stock buybacks from next month after the U.S. Federal Reserve gives them what is expected to be a clean bill of health on Thursday, said analysts. .../..

U.S. Fed bank stress tests pave way for stock buyback, dividend bonanza



HK Kevin  16:50:30 GMT - 06/22/2021  
Basically, both EUR and GBP are in buy mode after breaking ytd high.


Mtl JP  16:36:42 GMT - 06/22/2021  
EURO 1.1927
-
lets see if Nigel is trying to be funny


Mtl JP  16:26:30 GMT - 06/22/2021  
EURO 1.1915
-
Puppy looks hesitant bullish while above 1.1850 Supp.
To run uP it needs to pop N of and hold 1.1925
says watson


Mtl JP  16:18:24 GMT - 06/22/2021  
DLRx 91.93
-
Puppy looks as if it has seen its top (reached the 18th), currently panting and resting after last week's euphoric rally.

**
At top of hour Fed peddles off 2yr bonds.


Mtl JP  15:27:26 GMT - 06/21/2021  
bullard says

- first interest rate hike could come before tapering has ended but not what he wants now

- he doesn't think tapering will be on auto-pilot

- it is up to FOMC when to start tapering asset purchase, says it takes time to organize

- economy is booming and strong growth may last for several years

srce.: MarketWatch


Mtl JP  15:14:17 GMT - 06/21/2021  
The un-spoken awkwardness in market is lack of confidence in and quiet worry for the outlook for US economy as the Fed gang gingerly attempts to broach the tapering topic. Maybe that is why USDis off some this morning.

Outside the rainfall of various FED gang members yakking, chief mushroom farmer yaks tomorrow. (officially to politicians)

Bottom Line propaganda message:
tapering economic "support" remains a handle with care like early versions of nitroglycerin with plenty advance trumpeting.

USDx 91.865; 10-yr 1.426%


Mtl JP  14:25:37 GMT - 06/21/2021  
DLRx 91.885 (down a bit)
EURO 1.1913
-
Puppy mildly bullish.
S 1.1850; puppy popping N of 1.1925 and holding it should open 1.1950/75 in the short term


Mtl JP  14:11:45 GMT - 06/21/2021  
lagarde yaks again at 10:15 - ~5 mins


Mtl JP  21:41:58 GMT - 06/20/2021  
Euro 1.18584

Liquidating Market
How long does liquidating market take to liquidate ?
-
Presumably started after wednesday's jerome act.
then bullard's act II clobbered the market puppies some more.

subsequent kashkari act IIb did little if nothing to market nega-sentiment sofat.

Some bets:
very s/t:
"euro will be back at 1,21 next week." - Tallinn viies 06 -17-2021

bit more out:
"The Fed has penciled in two rate hikes for 2023, but by the time they get around to hiking, they will instead be cutting." Mike Shedlock - from GVI Forex 10:40 linked piece


Mtl JP  07:02:23 GMT - 06/11/2021  
SnP 4238
futures are flat after new high and nevermind rising inflation


Mtl JP  07:26:12 GMT - 06/10/2021  
 
London is betting that
1) CPI is coming in "hot" OR
2) pushing price lower ahead of a benign CPI to get in at better price

I am leaning to #2


dc CB  18:52:00 GMT - 06/09/2021  
10Y Auction US Treas.
Today's high yield was 1.497% (almost 20bps below the 1.684% at the last auction), trading through the WI yield by a very significant 1bps

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/surge-foreign-demand-sparks-stellar-10y-treasury-auction-ahead-tomorrows-cpi

AND 15 mins later
RevRepo
Counterparties 59
502.904 Billion------------AKA Half-a-Trillion Dollars


Tallinn viies  13:45:08 GMT - 06/09/2021  
pain trade would be if it will fall below 1,25% or 1,00%.
there is no reason why it should be between 1,50-2,00 % when front end struggles not to move below 0,00%.

The Treasury’s net issuance of bills has been negative in recent months, putting downward pressure on yields.

JP Morgan’s client survey points to deeper bets against Treasuries. The risk to yields is to the downside.

so keep buying the stuff! US indexes or whatever.


Mtl JP  13:41:08 GMT - 06/09/2021  
10-yr 1.486%
DLRx 89.83
-
when (and under what circumstance) was 1.5% yield seen last eh koko ?

Odds are tom's CPI print ("what would you like it to print") will be made to help stop if not reverse the perversity in yield.


Mtl JP  22:25:16 GMT - 06/08/2021  
bing bang and ... POOF !
did you feel the earth move (besides some pork-related stocks) ?
me neither:

• Infrastructure negotiations between the White House and a small group of Republican senators have collapsed.

• With no deal in sight, President Joe Biden spoke by phone Tuesday with senators who are part of a bipartisan group that has been quietly working on a backup infrastructure plan.

• In addition to bipartisan options, Biden also spoke to the top two Democrats on Tuesday, and gave them a green light to begin crafting an infrastructure bill that can pass without any Republican votes.

Biden seeks new coalition for infrastructure bill as talks with key GOP senators fall apart



Mtl JP  15:22:55 GMT - 06/07/2021  
is this a hint:
-
Energy Secretary Granholm Says Hackers Could Shut Down the U.S. Power Grid - Barron's ?


Mtl JP  14:59:12 GMT - 06/07/2021  
some might argue euro enthusiasm (HoD 91 sofar) is the fault of eurgbp


Mtl JP  14:47:18 GMT - 06/07/2021  
this is where some sort of privileged knowledge about order line could come in handy


Mtl JP  14:45:16 GMT - 06/07/2021  
euro 1.2185/7
-
d-moment here
sharks nibbling at stops


Mtl JP  14:32:48 GMT - 06/07/2021  
EURO 1.2181
near Res at 1.2185
-
Can the puppy be lamer than lame ?
still inside the 1.2150-1.2250 corridor.
st S at 1.2150/45, more likely at 1.21
To show some spunk it will need to breach and stay N of 1.22 at least


London  Trader  13:32:39 GMT - 06/07/2021  
Is anyone playing the short USD side or just the range?


NY JM  12:14:40 GMT - 06/07/2021  
This feels like the calm before key events/data mid week onwards.


Mtl JP  12:03:58 GMT - 06/06/2021  
Bloomberg
-
ECB Isn’t About to Flinch at First Sign of a Recovery: Eco Week
(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank officials will debate whether to prolong their elevated pace of emergency bond-buying this week, a judgment that rests on how fragile they determine the economy’s recovery to be. ... A lively debate is likely though, in a possible precursor to the discussion the Federal Reserve will have the following week on whether to keep up its own stimulus or start paring it back. ../.

***
Bank of Russia holds a rate-setting meeting Friday

U.K.’s monthly GDP, industrial production and trade figures due Friday.

U.S. CPI on Thursday; April job openings and report on jobless claims
Fed are in blackout this upcoming week ahead of their next meeting on June 15-16.

Bank of Canada rate decision Wednesday


Mtl JP  11:05:05 GMT - 06/06/2021  
the ties that bind
-
AMC Drama Is Exposing Risks in $11 Trillion World of Indexing - bloomberg

... "Once the rules have been drawn up in the land of indexing, once the play has been called in the huddle, you don't have that ...


Mtl JP  18:10:37 GMT - 06/04/2021  

Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
SnP 4225.25
it is a dare, maybe a lure: usually asia apes US

ps - risk control is individual responsibility


Mtl JP  17:35:12 GMT - 06/04/2021  
to borrow from a famous advertisement
"do you know what is your wallet"
-
FINRA and the SEC are going after brokers who don’t do enough to protect their customers

Americans face mounting risk of hackers taking over brokerage accounts, regulators say
June 4, 2021 By Chris Matthews



Mtl JP  17:26:53 GMT - 06/04/2021  
DLRx 90.12
-
Abel I wish me luck as I continue 2 b dlr-bear biased. Even IF puppy closes N of 90.05 it ll close uP on the week.

With NFP having come in yet again crappy (+559K vs +675K xpct'd) odds of FED gang yik-yak to quell their minimum $120bln QE and/or hiking yield are currently POOF! and off the table. (Mester says "We want to be deliberately patient here because this was a huge, huge shock to the economy," "Bottom line, I would like to see further progress than where we are right now." - on cnbc)

In aggregate I read that as dark clouds for this week's DLR flop-uPs.


Jkt Abel  16:50:18 GMT - 06/04/2021  
Gold will close below 1900, top for today is in. Same with other usd cousins.


Jkt Abel  16:47:45 GMT - 06/04/2021  
Well gold very much off the high and no sign of returning high. Usdx also holding key 90 level. Betting on usd to hold ground here.


Mtl JP  14:51:05 GMT - 06/04/2021  
new (but old at the same time) from the admirer of chinese dictatorship:

Quote
“Now more than ever, world leaders need to come together to tackle the challenges of today and tomorrow. Canada will continue to work with our global partners to keep our people healthy, create jobs and opportunity, grow the middle class, fight climate change, and strengthen democratic values. Only together can we bring an end to this pandemic and build a future that works for everyone.”

The Rt. Hon. Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada



Mtl JP  14:45:19 GMT - 06/04/2021  
I suggest that it is not a good idea to dismiss even slightly the evil intent of the globalists to corral, to control, to squeeze and, if necessary, to punish.


PAR 14:21:48 GMT - 06/04/2021  
G7 has become a little irrelevant in the current economic world.


Mtl JP  14:17:42 GMT - 06/04/2021  
Note about elites, rulers, planners, schemers and assorted globalists:
-
LONDON, June 4 (Reuters) - Finance ministers from the G7 group of rich nations are meeting in London on Friday for two days of talks aimed at .../..

Then next week:
G7 Leaders' Summit in Carbis Bay, United Kingdom from June 11 to 13, 2021

(all of them travelling to shindig either by sailboat or hot-air balloon. sarc)


Mtl JP  10:09:21 GMT - 06/04/2021  
first wh let it be know that sleepy joe "will raise cyberattacks with Putin"

now a cnbc headlines that
"Biden administration mulling cyber attacks against Russian hackers"

haha, just keep mulling joe


Jkt Abel  02:08:21 GMT - 06/04/2021  
Gold rose, ab disappeared..gold down, kwun disappeared


Mtl JP  00:25:35 GMT - 06/04/2021  
maybe it is the hot ADP as the wall-of-worry
that is making yield go uP


Mtl JP  00:19:37 GMT - 06/04/2021  
10-yr 1.630
-
there is something stocks don't like
nikkei is off, us snp continues to slide as well


Mtl JP  18:00:09 GMT - 06/03/2021  
scared what vlad may have on him ?
-
"Biden will raise cyberattacks with Putin at meeting, White House says"


Mtl JP  17:55:03 GMT - 06/03/2021  
US 10-yr 1.623
-
some are probably asking:
Is this the start of a fresh climb in US yields?


Mtl JP  16:05:15 GMT - 06/03/2021  
10-yr giving only 1.619%
and does not look like it is in a hurry to give more


Mtl JP  15:05:55 GMT - 06/03/2021  
euro 1.2135ish
-
Looking for a turn North.
Sub 1.2150 looks over-extended


Mtl JP  14:56:48 GMT - 06/03/2021  
US 10-yr 1.622
DLRx 90.43
-
Bottom Line
DLR still inside range.
Rallies, sofar, have been clubbed.

IMHO, even if NFP comes in hotter than experts' opinion, DLR's rally risks a Jubb's rampage - nless.... yield blows North


Mtl JP  14:56:34 GMT - 06/03/2021  
US 10-yr 1.622
DLRx 90.43
-
Bottom Line
DLR still inside range.
Rallies, sofar, have been clubbed.

IMHO, even if NFP comes in hotter than experts' opinion, DLR's rally risks a Jubb's rampage - nless.... yield blows North


Mtl JP  06:52:00 GMT - 06/03/2021  
 
SnP 4201.5-ish
-
it is dump risk time in Ldn


haifa ac  06:13:11 GMT - 06/03/2021  
"Lapid announces: I succeeded in forming a coalition"

LOLOL
Leberman (russian thug)////Zandberg (communist)////Michaeli (Leftist) ////Mansur Abas (Arab head of ISLAMIC party who vows to exterminate Israel) Bennet (supposedly rightist)////Lapid (The Mayor of the State of Tel-Aviv)
Like a bunch of monkeys trying to form an orchestra ("The Quartet" by Krylov).
The only glue that holds this group is HATRED towards Bibi (who world leaders regard as great as Churchill as far as leaders go)/ Now that the single glueing factor is gone--what is holding them together?! N A D A.
We shall see how long this fictional government holds.


Mtl JP  01:12:40 GMT - 06/03/2021  
netanyahu
at first painfully slowly. then ... suddenly and definitely poooOOF!
onto garbage heap of history
-
Lapid announces: I succeeded in forming a coalition

Lapid Announces: I Have Succeeded in Forming a Government



Mtl JP  22:35:10 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Stealers Wheel
Clowns to the left of me Jokers to the right Here I am Stuck in the middle ...
-
SEC’s efforts to rein in Elon Musk’s tweets have been largely toothless - MarketWatch

no chit sherlock, just entertaining to some and profitable to others


GVI Forex 16:17:03 GMT - 06/02/2021  
 
I do not like to critique trades after the fact but with that siad, I wish you guys would take me up on getting access to the Amazing Trader.
'
See 15-minute AUFUSD chart

The Amazing Trader



HK Kevin  15:17:19 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Stopped out at 0.7753.
HK Kevin 14:51 GMT 06/02/2021
Sell again AUD/USD at 0.7746 earlier with very very tight stop.


HK Kevin  14:51:59 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Sell again AUD/USD at 0.7746 earlier with very very tight stop.


Mtl JP  14:41:50 GMT - 06/02/2021  
EURO 1.2199
-
it should be clear to most that puppy is prancing inside 1.2250 and 1.2150
with a tint of hint of trying to instill that its bull run is ...
huff n puffing

lagarde yak at some ceremony today but the bigger piece is ECB's meeting next week


PAR 14:19:06 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Dovish Fed minutes. What did you expect?


Mtl JP  14:15:11 GMT - 06/02/2021  
DLRx 89.95
-
pops N of 90 are feeble. feeble as ...
what more do you need ?

****
all day FED mushroom feeders on deck
(they appear to have found a new meme - racism between their yakking about outlook for economy)

lat 14:00 NYT - beige book


Mtl JP  09:56:21 GMT - 06/02/2021  
 
EURO 1.2180
-
patience and reward


haifa ac  07:48:04 GMT - 06/02/2021  
"London pikoo0201 06:31 GMT 06/02/2021 - My Profile
EURJPY"

It is amazing how much garbage the internet spews. Puke!


Mtl JP  00:56:20 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Qtn: in whose pocket is it better for the money to be in:

(Fortune) - A 21% global tax floor would mean $140 billion more for Europe and U.K., think tanks claim

corporations' OR governments' ?


Mtl JP  00:52:41 GMT - 06/02/2021  
PAR 17:46 - gov'ts don't like and don't have competition.

and they won't self-eliminate voluntarily:
“We're shifting from risk to opportunity and, as I say, aligning value in the market with what we want in society,”

in other words old Marketing 101 "deliver that which the customer wants" mantra is out the window.

want to know who is who in "We're" ?



Mtl JP  22:46:17 GMT - 06/01/2021  
 
4193
-
lets see if ~4190 holds Sup


PAR  17:46:18 GMT - 06/01/2021  
Factories are making more money selling fewer products at higher prices and material shortages are just an excuse.

Problem is that the companies became too big have too much money and power and don't tolerate any competition.

Governments should stimulate competition and destroy monopolies, duopolies and any excessive power in whatever sector.

But that would lower prices, lower profit margins and crash the stock market.

For the real economy that would be a huge plus.


Mtl JP  17:24:34 GMT - 06/01/2021  
 
remember the GAP
-
almost - if not as I type - POOF !


Mtl JP  16:46:42 GMT - 06/01/2021  
PAR if "Products are too expensive" how is it that "factories are humming, with strong demand for products" while "labor is not adequately compensated" ? (assuming labor that actually holds a job)
tia


PAR 16:39:42 GMT - 06/01/2021  
Labor vs Capital

In the past 67% labor 33% capital.

Nowadays 59% labor 41% capital.

Products are too expensive and labor is not adequately compensated.

So employees loose twice.

Profit marges are excessive as there is less and less competition.

Apple just increases its prices instead of selling more phones. So they need less labor to make those phones and make more money.


Mtl JP  15:54:35 GMT - 06/01/2021  
YESS!
-
on one hand: every "green" screams curb consumption, reuse and recycle
on the other: ..." factories are humming, with strong demand for products supporting activity that would be even stronger if the resources were available to expand production,”... but one is encouraged not to fear as "in time as millions of unemployed Americans are incentivized to fill a flood of job openings"

incentivized, that is the ticket

U.S. stocks turn mostly lower as ISM reading underlines bottlenecks



Mtl JP  15:07:57 GMT - 06/01/2021  
copy paste
saves me typing
-
10:54 S&P 500 down 0.1%; Nasdaq Composite drops 0.4%
10:53 Dow industrials up 104 points, or 0.3%
10:53 Stocks erase opening gains; S&P 500, Nasdaq turn negative
10:49 U.S. manufacturers have tons of demand, ISM finds, but they’re handcuffed by labor and supply shortages
- MarketWatch

the solution to "tons of demand" is ....
raise prices. more. and if still "tons of demand" -> means prices still too low so raise prices. more. and moRE.
until demand balances supply


Mtl JP  15:01:30 GMT - 06/01/2021  
 
Dog eat Dog
-
going after the gap


Mtl JP  14:16:24 GMT - 06/01/2021  
... am enthusiastic... s/be am not enthusiastic


Mtl JP  14:15:00 GMT - 06/01/2021  
10-yr 1.640%
DLRx 89.72
-
as long as yield is tamped (say under ytd's high)
USD is in sell bias.

additionally, higher commodities means lower usd
which plays with commodity ccies

EURO 1.2245
I am enthusiastic about the puppy, stuck as it is between 1.2150 and 1.2250 currently
Sup 1.22/2180-ish
Res 1.2250/1.23/2349 (or targets)


Mtl JP  16:02:50 GMT - 05/31/2021  
• The May jobs report looms large for markets in the week ahead, with 674,000 jobs expected, after last month’s disappointing 266,000 payrolls.

• Stocks turned in a mixed performance in May, and according to Bespoke, June can be weak, with the Dow down on average 0.7% for the month over the last 20 years.

• The focus will largely be on the economy and the Fed in the coming week, after another hotter-than-expected inflation report was released Friday.

A big jobs report looms in the week ahead, as markets enter the often-weak month of June
Patti Domm



Mtl JP  14:15:06 GMT - 05/31/2021  
DLRx 89.96
-
with UK and US closed, market is drifting.

later in the week potentially market dynamic will change on US employment and PMI releases

EURO 1.2205
appears to be getting somewhat lame: not expecting much enthusiasm for the puppy in light of the steep plunge on Fr.

Sup 1.2180/75/50-ish; Res 1.2215 and around Jay's magical figure.


Mtl JP  07:53:59 GMT - 05/31/2021  
ahead of holiday monday NY
-
"Asian markets fall after disappointing economic data from Japan, China"

"(Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe struggled for traction along with U.S. futures after signs China’s economic recovery may be leveling out and as investors continue to weigh global inflation risks.

Here are key events to watch this week:

U.S. markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.
U.K. markets will be closed for the Spring Bank holiday
Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision Tuesday
OPEC+ meets to review oil production levels Tuesday
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speak Wednesday
U.S. employment report for May on Friday"


Mtl JP  05:52:56 GMT - 05/31/2021  
 
EURO 1.2195-ish
-
H&S in the making ?
is that what is next ?
tia !


Mtl JP  22:46:02 GMT - 05/30/2021  
 
Reuters - Rapid appreciation of China's yuan not sustainable, says former PBOC official

BEIJING, May 30 (Reuters) - The rapid appreciation of China's yuan against the U.S. dollar may have overshot and will not be sustainable, a former central bank official said in an interview with state media Xinhua News on Sunday. .../.


Mtl JP  22:37:01 GMT - 05/29/2021  
 
10-yr 1.581
-
USDCNY 6.3590
Is the low yield on the dlr a / the factor ?
Is sub 6.40 a trap ?
Seeking comments, postulations, trade ideas

tks !


Mtl JP  16:45:41 GMT - 05/28/2021  
Perro Come Perro
-
Opinion: The Theory at the Heart of Modern Portfolios Is Leading Investors Astray

By Jon Lukomnik and James P. Hawley



PAR 15:36:46 GMT - 05/28/2021  
US stock markets boosted by a weaker US dollar and lower rates.


haifa ac  14:36:10 GMT - 05/28/2021  
You forgot this:
After more than a year of social isolation during the pandemic, the sentiment may perfectly encapsulate the purported vibe of the coming months – a period in which people are swapping masks for a different kind of protection. Welcome to summer 2021: the summer of sex."

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210525-are-we-heading-towards-a-summer-of-sex


Mtl JP  14:30:40 GMT - 05/28/2021  
for reference
-
U.S. heads into holiday weekend with 51% of adults fully vaccinated and COVID cases down 35% from two weeks ago - MarketWatch


Mtl JP  14:21:01 GMT - 05/28/2021  
10-yr 1.597
-
post PCE - a sleeper report it turns out - nothing fundamentaly new in the deck.

Bottom Line: keeping sell-dollar-rallies.
this pig looks like it ll bleed some more

likely short day; players likely to focus on NFP next Fr


Mtl JP  09:04:38 GMT - 05/28/2021  
"stable prices" mandate
-
Treasury Secretary sees ‘high rates of inflation through end of the year’

Yellen’s high inflation forecast translates into a communication headache for the Fed
May 27, By Greg Robb



Mtl JP  07:22:14 GMT - 05/28/2021  
10-yr 1.622 (vs ytd 1.765 high)
-
Nikkei ... is on fire. FIRE !


Mtl JP  06:43:42 GMT - 05/28/2021  
 
GAPS
two same direction gaps
raise the Qtn: belief or fact ?
-
discounting economic re-opening: belief or fact ?


PAR 06:40:50 GMT - 05/28/2021  
Before and during a long US holiday weekend US stock markets always move higher.

A long-established Wall Street tradition.


Mtl JP  15:35:07 GMT - 05/27/2021  
DLRx 90.05 - definitely undecided
euro 1.2187 - puppy definitely undecided as well bouncing inside 1.2210 / 1.2180

the buffalo herd needs a pistol crack


PAR 12:39:31 GMT - 05/27/2021  
World markets rise on strong economic data and on Biden's plan to spend, spend and spend trillions and trillions.

Typical pre-US holiday markets.


Mtl JP  09:21:06 GMT - 05/27/2021  
 
10-yr 1.588
EURO 1.2188
DLRx 90.04
-
DLR s up against l/t Res live.
Breach N opens 90.40
and euro should ploink correspondingly
near S (and trgt): 1.2150-ish


PAR 07:34:38 GMT - 05/27/2021  
Before and during a US holiday US markets almost always move higher.


PAR 07:16:12 GMT - 05/27/2021  
Looking forward to along weekend in the USA.

KBC Economics

" The US remains in focus today with a $62 bln 7y auction, April durable goods orders and the weekly jobless claims. We doubt though whether they will be pivotal for trading. The overarching feeling over the past few days is one of doubt and not knowing where to go from here. In the run-up to the long US weekend (May 31, Memorial Day) we don’t expect to see large directional moves. Both US and German (10y) yields are near or have hit first support levels. These should hold as long as the big picture of the economic reopening remains intact. The dollar’s downside got a little more protection after yesterday’s price action. That said, we see no reason for a protracted USD revival either. EUR/USD touched 23.6% Fibonacci support (Nov 20 – Jan 21 upleg) near 1.217 this morning. Some sideways consolidation might be in the making. EUR/GBP continues a choppy upward sloping path."


Mtl JP  16:36:59 GMT - 05/26/2021  
It is my premise that it is the DLR that sets the dancing tone
i.e dlr leads, euro follows


Mtl JP  16:32:44 GMT - 05/26/2021  
EURO 1.2200x
-
coincident with DLRx 90
euro should find Sup around here


Mtl JP  16:18:25 GMT - 05/26/2021  
DLRx 90.05
-
above 90 puppy should find Res


Mtl JP  10:02:31 GMT - 05/26/2021  
 
USDx 89.68
-
sitting on Sup line
the trend is still strong
waiting
for what I do not know
you ?

tia


Mtl JP  07:52:19 GMT - 05/26/2021  
10-yr 1.572
-
AP
Asian markets rise as inflation fears ease
Stocks edge higher in Tokyo, Hong Kong

..."Investors also have been encouraged by stronger U.S. corporate profits and consumer spending. That has kept the U.S. stock market near record highs and boosted optimism in global markets.

Data due out Thursday are expected to show the biggest global economy accelerated in the first three months of this year after expanding at an annual rate of 4.3% in 2020’s final quarter. Economists expect a huge rebound this year following the deepest slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s." .../.


Mtl JP  14:29:31 GMT - 05/25/2021  
... ++ ...
-
..."FBI said the cybercriminals using the malicious software dubbed 'Conti' have targeted law enforcement, emergency medical services, dispatch centers, and municipalities." .../.

RTRS - FBI says Conti ransomware gang has hit 16 U.S. health and emergency networks



Mtl JP  14:11:22 GMT - 05/25/2021  
GOLD 1893
flying...
-
folks dumpin' crypros ?


Mtl JP  13:54:13 GMT - 05/25/2021  
and it is not cost of money us 10 yr 1.583


Mtl JP  13:51:15 GMT - 05/25/2021  
suddenly stocks are not liking something


Mtl JP  09:57:47 GMT - 05/25/2021  
temporary deflation
-
Bloomberg May 25, 2021
Obese Pigs in China Are Fueling Relentless Slump in Pork Prices



Mtl JP  09:45:40 GMT - 05/25/2021  
10-yr 1.591%
DLRx 89.58
Gold ~1883 (basing)
BTC $37,921

German 10-yr -0.15%
UK 10-yr 0.81

nothing worthwhile on today's calendar


Mtl JP  19:43:38 GMT - 05/24/2021  
10-yr 1.607
sell ... or .... buy
and the difference in argument for either is the reason
why markets exist
-
... “That inflation shock fear eased over the past week,”

Now, investors are watching the Fed to see how quickly it will respond to the inflation.

The point is that investors are now expecting interest rates across the board to rise sooner rather than later. Don’t be surprised to see significant stock-market volatility as the Fed story unfolds. ...

The Inflation Scare Is Over. The Fed One Is Just Getting Started.



Mtl JP  14:07:21 GMT - 05/24/2021  
 
USDx 89.72
-
puppy not getting much love
I continue to prefer selling pops uP / rallies


Mtl JP  07:23:32 GMT - 05/24/2021  
 
USDCAD 1.2056
GAP
---
Hello ! Now POOF!


Mtl JP  23:55:12 GMT - 05/23/2021  
... central bankers are already wondering ...
-
Bloomberg
Global Rebound Euphoria Tests Central Bankers’ Nerves on Risk
Craig Stirling, Sun., May 23, 2021

Global Rebound Euphoria Tests Central Bankers’ Nerves on Risk
(Bloomberg) -- With the world barely through the worst of an unprecedented crisis, central bankers are already wondering if the next one is around the corner. .../..

From Washington to Frankfurt, what began months ago as a murmur of concern has morphed into a chorus as officials ask if a risk-taking binge across multiple asset markets might presage a destabilizing rout that could derail the global recovery.


Mtl JP  23:51:59 GMT - 05/23/2021  
.. ..
The Independent
Home Office considers charging EU citizens to visit Britain
The new Electronic Travel Authorisation scheme would be based on the US model, which costs £9


Mtl JP  23:42:35 GMT - 05/23/2021  
 
usdcad 1.2066
gap
-
As I am still USD nega-biased ...


Mtl JP  15:54:47 GMT - 05/21/2021  
12:15 - Kaplan (non-voter), Barkin & Bostic (voters) yak

13:30 - Daly yaks (voteress)


Mtl JP  13:51:48 GMT - 05/21/2021  
DLRx 89.85
-
range getting tighter and while S at 89.65 tested multiple times the fact that puppy trades under 90 and when it pops gets pushed back under suggets no enthusiasm for it.

DLRCAD - 1.2050
-
puppy likely slave overall to mood around the USD
close under 1.2050 should open low 1.20 trgt
Res 1.2080/1.21


Mtl JP  09:33:57 GMT - 05/21/2021  
$1877
-
Gold Heads for Third Weekly Advance as Inflation, Fed in Focus

(Bloomberg) -- Gold headed for a third straight weekly gain as the dollar continued to trend down, with investors weighing signs of inflation and economic recovery. .../..


Mtl JP  07:02:59 GMT - 05/21/2021  
 
DLRx 89.755
-
the crux price line


Mtl JP  22:59:40 GMT - 05/20/2021  
USDCAD 1.2060
-
Maclem's BoC next rate: June 9


Mtl JP  22:57:13 GMT - 05/20/2021  
Biden orders federal climate-risk financial strategy, with implications for homeowners, pensions and government contracts

President directs agencies to analyze and mitigate the risk climate change poses to the financial system, and he’ll use the findings in the budget process - MarketWatch

-

Robinhood Plans to Give Access to IPOs to Everyone - Barron's

-

Macklem's Bank of Canada Warns Home Buyers Rates Will Eventually Rise

“Interest rates are unusually low, borrowers and lenders both have a role in ensuring that households can still afford to service their debt at higher rates. Counting on ever-higher house prices to build home equity that can be used to refinance mortgages in the future is a bad idea."

no sh.t sherlock. I can hardly wait for manifestation of "The central bank found there are signs of more speculative activity in some key markets that could post financial stability concerns." and "concerns associated with any repricing globally of risky assets with stretched valuations." Who likes exhuberant pricing ? And who likes lower prices (i.e repricing) ?


Mtl JP  16:00:37 GMT - 05/20/2021  
DLRx 89.76
-
puppy just floating abouve 89.66 3x Support

puppy 's proving sofar that there is little appetite for it
the yield would have to change
in the meantime I am keeping nega bias
prefer trading pops from short side


Mtl JP  10:03:12 GMT - 05/20/2021  
May 20: 4-, 8-week bills; 10-year TIPS reopening

"Inflation Angst Turns TIPS Into Must-Watch $1.6 Trillion Market" - bbrg


dc CB  21:13:10 GMT - 05/19/2021  
 
follow-up on previous- tip of the day .

New tip of the day---You figure out why this is Back.

Watch this Space



PAR 19:37:25 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Nothing looks ugly about the markets.
It's screaming higher and higher. New records are coming.
Just buy any dip as Biden, Powell and Yellen will not allow a 5% correction. That would look ugly.


HK Kevin  15:46:20 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Mtl JP 15:12 GMT, USD/CAD will retrace back to 1.2080 before resuming upward momentum.


Mtl JP  15:12:18 GMT - 05/19/2021  
USDCAD 1.2108
-
puppy would need to plow N thru 1.2125/30 for more usd momentum
odds, imo, are against it.
I remain usd bear


HK Kevin  14:10:17 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Show me US500 below 4050 for my debit put spread position to be in-the-money.


haifa ac  13:43:38 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Beware of Nasdaq monthly reversal. it can develop into something ugly


Mtl JP  13:29:05 GMT - 05/19/2021  
EURO 1.2214
-
floating just above 1.22 Sup
qtn now is ... is its just taking a breather ahead of 1.23
below 1.22 1.2180/75 Sup


Mtl JP  13:21:58 GMT - 05/19/2021  
some potential notables coming up
-
10:00 - Bullard (on Economic Outlook)
11:35 - Bostic

14:00 - minutes


Mtl JP  12:15:52 GMT - 05/19/2021  
HUH ?!
“This is healthy, but I think we all wish this didn’t happen.”
some "senior trader at Wave Financial"

Bitcoin Chartists See Rout Worsening With $40,000 in Focus



Mtl JP  12:03:49 GMT - 05/19/2021  
heading into NY

10-yr 1.655
and stocks look like they ll be puking


Mtl JP  10:53:44 GMT - 05/19/2021  
 
can someone disprove the 1-> 2-> 3 theory that the squid has the market by the ballz when it dumps GOLD ?
-
1) GOLD 1856 from 1874
2) just in time for DLRx 89.655 to hold S and
3) EURO 1.2240 hold Res

tia !


Mtl JP  06:15:22 GMT - 05/19/2021  
 
a bit of history according to Bloomberg
-
Stocks in Asia declined with U.S. and European equity futures Wednesday as concern about faster inflation overshadowed the economic recovery from the pandemic. A dollar gauge traded near the lowest level this year.

DLRx 89.675


dc CB  01:25:40 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Pre 1990 Used Farm Tractors and Combines will double or triple in price.
__________________________________________
Hoosier Ag Today reports, "The biggest factor impacting the ability of US farmers to produce the food we need has nothing to do with the weather, the markets, trade, regulations, or disease. The worldwide shortage of computer chips will impact all aspects of agriculture for the next two years and beyond... farm equipment manufacturers have halted shipments to dealers because they don't have the chips to put in the equipment... not only have combine, planter, tillage, and tractor sales been impacted, but even ATV supplies are limited. Parts, even non-electric parts, are also in short supply because the manufacturers of those parts use the chips in the manufacturing process. As farmers integrate technology into all aspects of the farming process, these highly sophisticated semiconductors have become the backbone of almost every farming operation."

https://hoosieragtoday.com/commentary-chip-shortage-forcing-farmers-to-plan-ahead/



Mtl JP  22:38:24 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Is it hacker-proof ?
-
Why China’s digital yuan is ‘largest threat to the West’ in past 30 or 40 years, according to Kyle Bass

Of course, not everyone agrees with Bass.

Just like not everyone may agree with me that chinese communists are not to be trusted.


Mtl JP  22:28:18 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Nikkei 28050
-
so us stocks did a somersault puke into the close
in board diving score: a 7
lets see how asia trades


dc CB  15:39:04 GMT - 05/18/2021  
July Lumber on CME Limit DN again----


dc CB  15:36:46 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Quoth the Raven
@QTRResearch
This is what happens you pay ransom

*COLONIAL SHIPPERS SAY PIPELINE COMMUNICATION SYSTEM IS DOWN
10:27 AM · May 18, 2021


PAR 15:00:54 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Time to buy S&P before Europe closes.


Mtl JP  14:29:27 GMT - 05/18/2021  
just like chinese communists
-
WEF Cancels Singapore Meeting as Pandemic Haunts Global Event - bbrg
-
just because they are out of spotlight , or especially because they are out of spotlight, are not to be trusted.


Mtl JP  14:15:08 GMT - 05/18/2021  
USDCAD 1.2159
-
Not a fan of USD bid so looking for when dlr buyers will tame their enthusism or dis-appear altogether.

Odds of N of 1.2225 low.
maybe my "famous last words"


PAR 14:12:03 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Just trying to limit the ECB losses on its multitrillion bond holdings.


Mtl JP  13:52:02 GMT - 05/18/2021  
EURO 1.2215
-
N of 1.22 thnaks to players dumping the dollar, just like the FED gang wants

s/t Res around 1.2242

monkey see monkey do:
ECB's Villeroy plays down inflation risks, says ECB ... - Reuters
“As of today, there is no risk of a durable return of inflation in the euro zone and therefore, it goes without saying, there is no doubt that the monetary policy of the ECB will remain very accommodative,” Villeroy

lets go VOLATILITY !


Mtl JP  06:22:39 GMT - 05/18/2021  
 
EURO 1.2180
-
ding ding ding ding

time for yet another executive decision


Mtl JP  06:18:30 GMT - 05/18/2021  
 
DLRx 89.975
-
it is time


for an executive decisions


Mtl JP  01:21:47 GMT - 05/18/2021  
EURO 1.216X
-
puppy probably looking to tag Res 1.2180
above that 1.2242

On downside Sup in the 1.2125/00 zone


dc CB  00:41:39 GMT - 05/18/2021  
leftist politics v Greeny Deal dreams.
watch SQM --(NYSE)

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile SA (SQM), the world's largest producer of lithium.
do your own research


Mtl JP  23:29:29 GMT - 05/17/2021  
jounalists are masters at sensationalizing
they get paid for bringing in eyeball clicks
and details ... what details


dc CB  23:00:13 GMT - 05/17/2021  
 
Mtl JP 22:13 GMT 05/17/2021
"famed investor"

Another case of not reading 'the daily racing form'.
Burry also shorting .......


Mtl JP  22:13:02 GMT - 05/17/2021  
"famed investor"
-
Reuters
Firm led by famed investor reveals short position on Tesla

CNBC
Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla

***
Ok so journalists get eyeballs.
"famed investor" lays his ballz on the line.

others, not so famed invetsors, are now scratching theirs contemplating do I follow or not.


Mtl JP  17:53:01 GMT - 05/17/2021  
At first rapid read I read "pets" as "pips"
similar to "sharks" eating stops
-
Bald eagles are back. And they want to eat your pets. - MarketWatch



Mtl JP  17:02:42 GMT - 05/17/2021  
why only 7% with all the trillion$ booster support
why not to the moon ?


Mtl JP  16:51:31 GMT - 05/17/2021  
helter skelter hallucinations
from clarida
-
(Reuters) Fed's Clarida: U.S. growth could hit 7% this year

"It looks like the economy if anything can pick up speed this year...We could have growth north of 6%, possibly 7%," Current labor and supply bottlenecks, he said, are likely to pass, and evidence that "it may take more time to reopen a $20 trillion economy than it did to shut it down."


Mtl JP  16:47:38 GMT - 05/17/2021  
PAR 14:38 that could be valuable tactical information


PAR 14:38:52 GMT - 05/17/2021  
Guess stocks will move higher once Europe is closed. Typical algorithmic
scenario.


Mtl JP  14:34:50 GMT - 05/17/2021  
stocks, sofar at least, not exactly enthusisatic about clarida "providing expert perspectives on emerging financial market issues and their monetary policy implications."


Mtl JP  14:27:53 GMT - 05/17/2021  
IF u r inclined to listen to clarida and his sidekick
sitting comfortably in their chairs bubbling about

"Fostering a Resilient Economy and Financial System: The Role of Central Banks"

clarida and sideckick live



Mtl JP  14:21:27 GMT - 05/17/2021  
DLRx 90.25
-
no demand , just no demand for the old buck
just as Clarida and Bostic are about to start their
mushroom feeding at bottom of hour


Vienna GD  10:35:47 GMT - 05/17/2021  
Mtl JP 09:59 GMT 05/17/2021

JP - that, just like the recent BT rout - is just nothing else but a straight and really really rare once in a lifetime opportunity to get back into the supercycle sky wave!

And boy - eventually you even can meet a Tesla and Musk on the moon! Waoh I have no words left.


Mtl JP  09:59:42 GMT - 05/17/2021  
 
duh ! asia no like covid vaccination prospects ?


Mtl JP  09:20:17 GMT - 05/17/2021  
..."bragging about the car driving unaided" ...
-
no more.
darwin rules

Tesla driver killed in crash posted videos of himself driving hands-free



Mtl JP  08:18:56 GMT - 05/17/2021  
revolt. disobedience. disrespect. discredit. central banks
follow. or anticipate.
-
Bond Vigilantes Swarm European Economies Where Inflation Is Hot

"(Bloomberg Sun., May 16, 2021) -- Bond markets are famous for pushing their agenda, and in east Europe right now, they’re pushing for rate increases, never mind what central banks have to say on the matter.

Yields on bonds of Hungary and Poland are rising faster than anywhere else in Europe. Hungary’s jumped 32 basis points last week, signaling traders are primed for rate liftoff as inflation roars back to life ahead of widespread economic re-openings this summer." ... .


Mtl JP  00:29:08 GMT - 05/17/2021  
 
10-yr 1.634%
-
DLRx 90.355
ya I am biased: this puppy is heading into the toilet


Mtl JP  21:52:10 GMT - 05/16/2021  
Colonial Pipeline says ‘normal operations’ have resumed following hack


Mtl JP  17:51:28 GMT - 05/14/2021  
after 10am on Friday
trading against Knez
-
euro 1.2134 -> unlikely puppy will go much lower from here
S at 1.2130

avagoodonemeout


Belgrade Knez  14:22:59 GMT - 05/14/2021  
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.214x Target: south Stop: 1.215x
-------------------------------------------------
Friday high at 1.2152..... probably will test that level and few pips above until/if goes down again


Mtl JP  14:13:11 GMT - 05/14/2021  

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.214x Target: south Stop: 1.215x
10am
those who needed to trade into the 10am time point are now likely done


Mtl JP  13:55:55 GMT - 05/14/2021  
USDCAD 1.208x
-
sub 1.2120/00 Sup puppy looks hungry for that previously pointed out 1.204x low, at least


Mtl JP  13:50:19 GMT - 05/14/2021  
 
and stocks ?
eye-catching: decisive players / robots filling pockets


Mtl JP  13:12:18 GMT - 05/14/2021  
 
DLRx 90.38
-
flood of FED mushroom feeders with same "not to worry" formulation appears to have gained control over player schizzo emotions.
I maintain my nega-bias on the USD, just more prudently.
1:0 for the FED

***
EURO 1.213x
has bullish overtone above its 100-day
close above 1.21 would support the bullishitude
Res at 1.2150/80, S 1.21 and ~1.2080


Mtl JP  11:16:50 GMT - 05/14/2021  
and stocks ?
what will they do OR have they done their thing already


GVI Forex 11:12:28 GMT - 05/14/2021  
US yields slippoinmg, dollar following


dc CB  17:47:51 GMT - 05/13/2021  
''horse that won the Kentucky Derby and then Failed '''


dc CB  17:46:33 GMT - 05/13/2021  
the Preakness runs this Sat.
The horse that one the Kentucky Derby and the Failed the post race drug test.....Will be running.

Got to keep the Triple Crown 'hope' alive. Def can't void the chance after the first race.

very similar to SToX


dc CB  17:40:56 GMT - 05/13/2021  
 
When genius? fails

Genie



Mtl JP  15:35:31 GMT - 05/13/2021  
as janet's department peddles off 27 billion worth of 30-yr bonds at 13:00, waller yaks about economy at same time, follows bullard at 16:00 on essentially same topic but also on policy outlook as if one mushroom feeding were not nuff

**

EURUSD 1.2070
-
puppy looks like it needs an electroshock wallowing as it is just above its 100-day.
Sup at 1.20, Res 1.21 & 1.2150


Mtl JP  08:42:04 GMT - 05/13/2021  
one more moRE "fear"-based profit opp trading headline:
-
"Inflation fears grip markets as European stocks and U.S. equity futures slide" - authored by none other than Barbara Kollmeyer

this kind of reporting is symptomatic


Mtl JP  08:27:55 GMT - 05/13/2021  
 
10-yr 1.694 (spiki uppi)
DLRx 90.65 (also spiki uppi)
what some jounalists term "worries", some players see and play profit opportunities. headlines:
-
What does inflation mean for the stock market? It’s supposed to be a positive —but investors are spooked now

Inflation is climbing, but it isn’t blasting past its 30-year range — yet

Asian markets follow Wall Street lower as inflation worries mount
*****
Bitcoin bulls on social media reject Musk’s reasoning for halting crypto-based car sales

Government reminds anxious gas customers: ‘Do not fill plastic bags with gasoline’ (dummy asks: why not? smart one says: it may mean you never get laid. ever)


Mtl JP  23:17:47 GMT - 05/12/2021  
I have two questions.
-
Is the "it" transitory: y/n

What is good way to trade it: ___

(such as betting on risk off/on or that yields are going to fly higher)

TIA!


Mtl JP  15:42:03 GMT - 05/12/2021  
about CPI clarida communicates that:
-
"the rise in inflation is largely due to transitory factors. He speaks at a National Association for Business Economics virtual event." (Source: Bloomberg)

"is not concerned a coming expected rise in prices will persist, he said the accelerating recovery is not shifting the Fed’s commitment to keeping low interest rates and a $120 billion pace of monthly bond purchases until the labor market is fixed.

“Notwithstanding the recent flow of encouraging macroeconomic data, the economy remains a long way from our goals,” Clarida said. “It is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved.” via Reuters


Mtl JP  15:09:19 GMT - 05/12/2021  
 
EURO 1.2080
-
puppy overshot 1.2070 by only ~5pips
no dlr buyers usd, only sellers


Mtl JP  14:28:59 GMT - 05/12/2021  
EURO 1.2085ish
-
odds are 1.2070 will hold S on next appraoch


Mtl JP  14:22:36 GMT - 05/12/2021  
PAR 07:36 - it is better to consider CPI, GDP, unemployement, inflation etc etc as just words - vocabulary - in a specialized language used to communicate amongst specific groups of folks such as policy-makers, economists, financial elite, speculators and opportunistic traders, politicians or peasants. Same sentence is not necessarily aimed at all groups with same intention of understanding.


GVI Forex 13:51:25 GMT - 05/12/2021  
US 10 year 1.675%, +5.1 bp


Mtl JP  10:15:07 GMT - 05/12/2021  
 
huh what is this about ?


PAR 07:36:34 GMT - 05/12/2021  
CPI calculations are more modern arts than economics.

Nothing scientific about it.

An NFP-like surprise may not be excluded


Mtl JP  02:02:59 GMT - 05/12/2021  
on deck: CPI
10-yr 1.629%
-
economists expecting +3.5%
***
Fed's Harker says
- 3% inflation is the maximum he would like to see
- it is 'premature' to talk about tapering asset purchases


Mtl JP  17:59:15 GMT - 05/11/2021  
transitory
from moderate to ... de or hyper / inflationary ?
-
CNBC’s Steve Liesman reports on commentary from the Federal Reserve’s Brainard on the economic outlook.

Fed’s Brainard says there are reasons to believe the increase in inflation is transitory



Mtl JP  17:35:36 GMT - 05/11/2021  
sounds like an investment hint
-
Climate change means water and sewer utilities will need billion of upgrades over the next decade, report says - MarketWatch

cement, cement and plistic pipes and conduits, construction equipement, engineering firms ...etc


Mtl JP  16:03:55 GMT - 05/11/2021  
 
just look at then (JP 15:11) and now

u a good bottom picker viies. like the teamwork


Mtl JP  15:11:47 GMT - 05/11/2021  
 
viies --- u a buyer around here ?


Mtl JP  15:07:38 GMT - 05/11/2021  
EURO 1.2159
-
puppy's just a pain-in-donkey with its +/- ~30pip range around 1.2150

it's the DLR leg that needs to jolt in my optique
I just can't trade on some vaccination reports from europe vs us


Mtl JP  14:49:05 GMT - 05/11/2021  
communication evolution
about this morn's stocks
-
down -> extends decline -> off -> skid lower

currently things not serious just yet as the moves are not anywhere near Babson Break (defined as ~ -3% decline)


Mtl JP  14:34:03 GMT - 05/11/2021  
all mushroom feeders are voters
except harker and kashkari


haifa ac  14:33:22 GMT - 05/11/2021  
Spx just punctured last week low-- dark clouds are gathering.

aerial combat between good and evil


Mtl JP  14:30:59 GMT - 05/11/2021  
my suspision is players are trading the famous wall of worry
probably trying to discount CPI's massive price moves-uP

williams about to yak at bottom of hour
follows brainyard at noon
and bosti, harker and cashncarry in the aft

in case players should be getting wrong ideas


haifa ac  14:29:09 GMT - 05/11/2021  
Nasdaq' Nikkei' Dax made today lower monthly low. I wonder why Tallinn viies did not mention this yet,


Mtl JP  14:22:33 GMT - 05/11/2021  
what do they know
-
players sellind dlr, bond and stocks ahead of tom's CPI ?


Mtl JP  13:59:54 GMT - 05/11/2021  
GVI Forex 10:16 - thky - looks like I did not clear my cache.
that would make it mea culpa.
-
1.620% or so still likely tolerable by "authorities", probably till 1.9-ish
as FED gang continues happily purchasing "minimum $120 billion/month"


GVI Forex 10:16:31 GMT - 05/11/2021  
JP, check your source for US bond yields. US 10 year is 1.611%


Mtl JP  09:56:09 GMT - 05/11/2021  
sherlock says
-
Stocks fall across Europe and Nasdaq futures tumble 1%, as inflation concerns and selloff sentiment spread
- MarketWatch

10-yr 1.573% atm

more FED "mass communicators" on deck today


Mtl JP  09:28:20 GMT - 05/11/2021  
do you get the impression that the FED and players are like a he says she says couple having communication issue ?

but divorce is not an option
(except for the crypto crowd. maybe)


Mtl JP  09:13:50 GMT - 05/11/2021  
The Society of American Business Editors and Writers (SABEW) is an association of business journalists. Its headquarters is at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University in Phoenix, Ariz

mass communication ... mushroom farming

evans could not have chosen better venue.
next, soon should be clarida


Mtl JP  09:04:57 GMT - 05/11/2021  
what more does the market need to know ?

charles 'substantial progress' evans:
several months of 1 million jobs added
more wage growth
higher inflation

CNBC
Fed's Evans says employment and inflation need to pick up before policy changes

Wall Street Journal
Fed's Evans Says It Is Too Soon to Talk About Fed Aid Pullback


(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials would like to see higher inflation, more wage growth and several months of strong employment gains averaging 1 million jobs added before they would consider adjusting monetary policy, Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday.

“We just want to be sure that monetary policy doesn’t get in the way of a vibrant labor market,” Evans said during a virtual conversation organized by the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing. “I think accommodative monetary policy will continue to be appropriate ... We’ve got, you know, some room to overshoot inflation.”

Fed's Evans: Accommodative monetary policy will continue to be appropriate



Mtl JP  14:28:27 GMT - 05/10/2021  
DLRx 90.04
10-yr 1.565%
-
at 2pm NYT evans will be feeding the mushrooms
with something he calls "economic outlook"
-
EURO 1.2164
s/t S 1.2140/35 bit more out 1.21
Res 1.22


GVI Forex 12:55:16 GMT - 05/10/2021  
As posted on the AT Forum

Monday
GVI Forex 12:24 GMT 05/10/2021 - My Profile
To state the obvious, it has so far been a EURGBP sell order driven day.

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  09:59:20 GMT - 05/10/2021  
(Bloomberg Sun., May 9, 2021) -- The U.S. labor market remains in a “deep hole” and needs aggressive support to speed its healing from the Covid-19 pandemic, said Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari.

“We are still somewhere between 8 and 10 million jobs below where we were before the pandemic,” Kashkari said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” .../..

Yellen: I believe we will reach full employment in 2022
CNBC 2 days ago

Yellen: Biden's plan could restore full employment by 2022
Feb. 8, 2021


Mtl JP  09:01:25 GMT - 05/10/2021  
fwiw:

Bond Traders See a Path to 2% Yields Lurking in U.S. Jobs Miss

"(Bloomberg) -- The prospect of a rebound to 2% yields on the world’s benchmark bond is alive and well.

Treasury-market bears found a deeper message within Friday’s weak employment report that’s emboldened a view that inflationary pressures are on the rise, and could boost rates to levels not seen since 2019." .../..



Mtl JP  08:45:28 GMT - 05/10/2021  
 
ahead of NY
pulse:
-
10-yr 1.577 (52 WEEK RANGE 0.502 - 1.778)
DLRx 90.10


Mtl JP  08:28:21 GMT - 05/10/2021  
but we all knew / know it.
right ?
-
(Bloomberg) -- Global central banks are starting to wind down the trillion-dollar money printing machines set in motion to rescue their economies in 2020. Getting ahead of them is becoming this year’s biggest currency trade.

Global Race to Tapering Ignites Hunt for Next Currency Winners



Mtl JP  22:47:05 GMT - 05/09/2021  
GAP
why ?
-
because ... "Colonial Pipeline said Sunday that it was still developing a plan for restarting the nation’s largest fuel pipeline -- a critical source of supply for the New York region -- and would only bring it back when “safe to do so, and in full compliance with the approval of all federal regulations.” Gasoline futures surged by as much as 4.2% in early electronic trading on Sunday"...

all that is mising is ___ for $3 per


Mtl JP  17:42:35 GMT - 05/08/2021  
some weekend reads
-
Bloomberg
Fed Warns of Peril for Asset Prices as Investors Gorge on Risk

Investors Prepare Taper Tantrum Plan as Fed Demurs On Timing

U.S. Consumer Borrowing Rose More Than Forecast in March

Traders Ramp Up Bets on a Hawkish Fed Surprise at Jackson Hole

Europe’s Banks Cash In on Lagarde’s Billion-Euro Loan Sweetener


dc CB  18:14:20 GMT - 05/07/2021  
nobody goes to the track anymore

Tips-R-Us



Mtl JP  15:23:06 GMT - 05/07/2021  
euro 1.2150
-
looking for tradecalls w/ballz


Mtl JP  15:17:47 GMT - 05/07/2021  
euro 1.2147
- sharks trying to take out s/l around 1.2150
-- courageous types re-loading short on the pop

lets c who laughs last


Mtl JP  15:08:37 GMT - 05/07/2021  
USDCAD 1.2145
- decisive push under 1.2150 ---> see 75/85 nega-pips pronto


Mtl JP  14:55:05 GMT - 05/07/2021  
10-yr 1.547% (off 1.489 low)
-
EURO 1.2140
high for the day against 1.2150 Res already likely in

on the downside is that by now famous 100-day Sup
should be good trgt for the "smart" ones next

with that crappy nfp print vs expectations - i.e. a "surprise !" - for now the score is: jerome 1 : janet 0


Mtl JP  14:40:50 GMT - 05/07/2021  
 
what was that nfp print again ?
-
looks like not many employers eager to pay $15+/hr


Mtl JP  10:13:31 GMT - 05/07/2021  
...musk's "lucky people"...
-
If you see a video after clicking the link, you are one of the 30 lucky people who will get to try the software for free.”

Musk’s new innovation is meant to give financial freedom to the common people



Mtl JP  07:27:11 GMT - 05/07/2021  
EURO 1.2080-ish
-
currently 1.2050 seems to have repulsive characteristic.
DLRx popping uP off 90.70 should help cap euro


Mtl JP  22:28:48 GMT - 05/06/2021  
 
DLRx 90.86
sitting just abouve its S at 90.82 prev day low
staying alert and staying short


Mtl JP  22:10:59 GMT - 05/06/2021  
 
so the next thing that comes to mind is ...
will asia ape the late surge
only the brave will find out


Mtl JP  22:05:46 GMT - 05/06/2021  
 
I ll be darned - a catalyst
or someone decided nuff of waiting I believe jerome


Mtl JP  17:54:14 GMT - 05/06/2021  
GBPUSD 1.3890
-
is another puppy stuck in a twilight range (50 pips worth)


Mtl JP  17:46:20 GMT - 05/06/2021  
anyone want to take a stab:

BARRON'S - Volkswagen Profit Jumps and EV Sales Double. Why the Stock Is Falling

why indeed ?


Mtl JP  17:14:55 GMT - 05/06/2021  
EURO 1.2050
-
looks like the 100day 's got a solid grip on the puppy atm doesn't it


Mtl JP  08:48:47 GMT - 05/06/2021  
eat this greta:
-
Biden Leans Into Plans to Tax the Rich
“We’re not going to deprive any of these executives of their second or third home, travel privately by jet,” the president said
- NYT


Mtl JP  08:27:05 GMT - 05/06/2021  
10-yr 1.582 (vs 1.573 overnite)
USDx 91.09
-
DLR down -> euro uP ...
simple as uno dos


********
"Relations sour further between China and Australia as Beijing suspends economic dialogue"

Not the first time CCP having behavioral trouble


Mtl JP  23:32:55 GMT - 05/05/2021  
The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended May 1: 538,000 expected vs. 553,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended April 24: 3.620 million expected vs. 3.660 million during the prior week


Mtl JP  22:18:19 GMT - 05/05/2021  
DLRx. 91.22
10-yr 1.608 (+0.014)
-
a nebulous day about the dollar but
91.50 holding Res so far after 3 days of ~91.45
still holding nega-bias on the dlr


dc CB  19:58:11 GMT - 05/05/2021  
COVID vaccine business, which Pfizer said just yesterday will likely be a "durable revenue stream" as COVID vaccines likely become an annual dose like the flu vaccine.

OOOPS
__________________________________

Stocks Tumble As White House Backs WTO Plan To Waive IP Protections For COVID Vaccines



Mtl JP  17:23:18 GMT - 05/05/2021  
cohesion from the yakkers:

Mester:
Will be 'deliberately patient' regarding inflation

More progress needed in job market before forward guidance conditions met

Not too concerned that inflation will get out of hand

***
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
― Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds


Mtl JP  17:12:17 GMT - 05/05/2021  
GBPUSD 1.3900
-
Bank of England Expected

to Send Tapering Signal



Mtl JP  17:01:45 GMT - 05/05/2021  
same old same old ....
bad managers: what would they be without fiat ?
-
WSJ - Treasury (that is janet's departement) Urges Congress to Raise Debt Ceiling This Summer

The federal government could run out of cash much sooner than in previous debt-limit episodes, officials say.


Mtl JP  16:55:43 GMT - 05/05/2021  
Rosengren says it is 'premature to focus' on tapering


Mtl JP  16:52:34 GMT - 05/05/2021  

Ruling negates program that has helped millions of tenants who have fallen behind on rent during the coronavirus pandemic

Federal Judge Invalidates National Eviction Moratorium - wsj



Mtl JP  16:49:10 GMT - 05/05/2021  
DLRx 91.30
-
Rosengren says higher inflation will be as temporary as last year’s toilet-paper shortage


Mtl JP  15:10:24 GMT - 05/05/2021  
DLRx 91.23
-
goodi-good, 91.50 holds Res

evans (policy likely on hold for some time), rosengren (currently yakking) and mester (yet to yak at top of the hour) on economy and policy




Israel MacroMicro  13:14:24 GMT - 05/05/2021  
Vienna GD 06:22 GMT May 5, 2021

the beauty of trading is thanks to different definitions by participants to the term PROCESS

all see the same, not all capable to see and ride the roadmap of the journey to see


Mtl JP  10:13:29 GMT - 05/05/2021  
..... ****......
-
Dubai tapped to host Germany’s canceled Oktoberfest, upsetting some traditionalists

****.....****


Mtl JP  08:26:55 GMT - 05/05/2021  
 
DLRx 91.38, HoD 91.415
doom doom , doom doom ...

powell FED gang's independence credibility is on the line


Mtl JP  08:26:51 GMT - 05/05/2021  
 
DLRx 91.38, HoD 91.415
doom doom , doom doom ...

powell FED gang's independence credibility is on the line


hk ab  06:30:55 GMT - 05/05/2021  
GD//JIMVHO, fears are often "unexpected".


hk ab  06:30:55 GMT - 05/05/2021  
GD//JIMVHO, fears are often "unexpected".


Vienna GD  06:30:01 GMT - 05/05/2021  
and BTW a few indices are already close or already have met the minimum of 5%. But (highly) likely there is more to come (for most indices and also for PMs).

Of course in an orderly way. As everything is under control. So nothing to see, nothing to fear. As after that everything again to da moon.
For a while.


Vienna GD  06:22:51 GMT - 05/05/2021  
Israel MacroMicro 17:44 GMT 05/04/2021

"Blow off top" and "5-15%" correction "into June" - READs somewhat different than what might happen thereafter (where BTW I also expect higher ATH across several assets) - NOT?

Have a nice day.


Mtl JP  22:53:52 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Jay ... now that yellen has gone "trump" on powell
IF powell is not pissed with yellen, he needs to publicly come out - probably multiple times and in various forms - and say that he is pissed with her contrary meddling to what he and his minions have been clearly saying about QE and interest rates steadfastedly and over and over.


NY JM  22:05:01 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Yellen tempered her comments and voiced the Fed’s inflation is transitory party line.


Mtl JP  18:02:44 GMT - 05/04/2021  
so yellen's interest spew cost gold to lose $15.80 (nearly 1%)

I suppose the next "message" will be what they chose to print in next few CPI (4% ??) -- and how housing reacts. housing is probably the risk lynch pin. and inflation expectations


Israel MacroMicro  17:52:56 GMT - 05/04/2021  
there must be a reason and someone got well served by CME raising the maximum size of positions that "institutional" are allowed to hold.

FWIW


PAR 17:48:37 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Israël

Agree. Don't spoil the holidays of the super rich.
They all want to come to the South of France.

What did you expect.


Israel MacroMicro  17:44:35 GMT - 05/04/2021  
that's all gloom and doom gurus can do?!

week or two and we may see for real how "blow off top" process happens, noticeable higher ATH with all indices before end of October of this year.

from there, trade with helmet on :)

gl / gt



Mtl JP  14:15:17 GMT - 05/04/2021  
10-yr down -0.04 to 1.563
sofar stocks(down) saying not good nuff


PAR 12:43:13 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Israel

Biden is and always has been a Pentagon man. He is a bellicose president and only listens to his generals.

Biden = Lord of Wars


Israel MacroMicro  12:16:38 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Chinese air-force jets feeling very comfortable about being inside Taiwanese air-space. S/T spike down (of few minutes ago) in risk or developing RISK OFF theme for few sessions.


Mtl JP  09:48:57 GMT - 05/04/2021  
ahead on NY
10-yr 1.621%


Mtl JP  09:18:24 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Aaaach hhhh ....
Germany's Oktoberfest canceled again in 2021 due to coronavirus - DW

Is that optimism looking 6 months out ?


Mtl JP  09:03:24 GMT - 05/04/2021  
EURO another try at 1.20

DLRx Res zone 91.36/91.40 ahead of my 91.50


Mtl JP  07:52:50 GMT - 05/04/2021  
fs 07:21 I am using the 100day


Mtl JP  07:49:21 GMT - 05/04/2021  
EURO 1.2010/00 ...
bingo !

DLRx 91.33 high
I am nega biased on DLR, 91.50 Res



kl fs  07:21:40 GMT - 05/04/2021  
JP, where is the resistance for euro do you think today? 12040 can cap for lower?


Mtl JP  07:14:37 GMT - 05/04/2021  
EURO 1.2013 -> 1.2031


Mtl JP  07:05:17 GMT - 05/04/2021  
EURO 1.2013
-
Smack on Sup atm
break would trgt 1.2012/00


Israel MacroMicro  19:11:20 GMT - 05/03/2021  
USD/CAD: whenever EOD > 1.2310 it may mean 210/250 pips uP mover from there using fast lane.


Mtl JP  17:46:24 GMT - 05/03/2021  
oxymoron: one expert speculates
-
By Mark DeCambre:
Can Ethereum prices hit $5,000 in a week? That’s what one crypto expert speculates as Ether mints records

Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group



Israel MacroMicro  16:46:47 GMT - 05/03/2021  
for the current week, all is depends on single simple level. USD/JPY 110.50


bye
Ahmed


Mtl JP  16:05:40 GMT - 05/03/2021  
some headlines
no specific trade suggestion
-
10:38 The stock market is ‘inching toward euphoria’, warn analysts at BofA

10:34 Why giving felons a second chance is the key to economic prosperity for America - too bad madeof is poof, ya

10:29 ‘Crazy’ prices and rampant shortages frustrate U.S manufacturers, ISM shows probably not high nuff yet; only sufficiently high self-correct. sooo more ... higher
-- MarketWatch


GVI Forex 15:49:41 GMT - 05/03/2021  
As postedCorrekation
GVI Forex 15:30 GMT 05/03/2021 - My Profile
FX and US yields correlating

Yields just popped and files moved higher
on the AT Forum

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  14:20:39 GMT - 05/03/2021  
10-yr 1.606
DLRx 90.90
-
new week, new month.
I don't expect the pop uP in DLR to have legs (i.e. N of 91.50)

EURO 1.2071 is prancing above its 100day w/next Res at 1.21
Sup in the 1.2015 / 1.1990 zone


Mtl JP  03:46:29 GMT - 05/03/2021  
 
USDCAD 1.23
steep trend
-
Puppy is sitting right on l/t Sup
It is a relatively low risk price point to trade either side (hold or break S) as one will know if the bet is winner or loser soon enuff - bar whipsaws.


Jkt Abel  00:54:47 GMT - 05/03/2021  
JP, do you see loonie at 1.18-1.20xxx as attractive enough for long play?


Mtl JP  00:46:52 GMT - 05/03/2021  
heeerrre pigeons .... over heeerre ...
-
..."The Honest Company (HNST) is looking to raise as much as $439M in an IPO next week that could give co-founder Jessica Alba a stake valued at about $96M. Jessica Alba (Honest Company (HNST)) - doesn't plan to sell any of her shares. them in the offering, according to the filing. The Los Angeles-based company had a net loss of $14.5M on revenue of $301M in 2020, compared with a loss of $31M on revenue of $236M the previous year."... - seekingalpha


Mtl JP  18:05:52 GMT - 04/30/2021  
euro needs to hold S 2018
else ... lights will go out


Mtl JP  15:36:11 GMT - 04/30/2021  
10-yr 1.636, near its day's low
-
sometimes ... dlr and yield do not correlate


Mtl JP  15:01:06 GMT - 04/30/2021  
 
EURO 1.2039
-
Fib Sup & Trgt ... BINGO !


Belgrade Knez  09:39:43 GMT - 04/30/2021  
JP,
absolutely, just sharing different levels so it might be useful


Mtl JP  09:35:10 GMT - 04/30/2021  
Knez how we die is a function of the poison we chose *V^


Belgrade Knez  09:31:16 GMT - 04/30/2021  
Mtl JP 08:38 GMT April 30, 2021

to calculate fib on daily eu I am using 1.23439 - 1.17041
hence fib support on my chart bit different.....



Mtl JP  08:38:34 GMT - 04/30/2021  
 
ahead of last NY session of the month
-
10-yr 1.656% (ie. below its recent hight)
DLRx 90.74 - uP off its yesty 90.38 low)

Euro Sup / Trgt at 61% Fib - c chart


dc CB  20:15:11 GMT - 04/29/2021  
 
'say no more, wink wink. say no more'
Monty Python


PAR 17:33:17 GMT - 04/29/2021  
Next month US rates to go negative?


dc CB  17:07:20 GMT - 04/29/2021  
The Treasury just sold $40BN in 4-week bills at a price of 100.000% representing a rate of 0.00%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-sells-treasury-bills-0-first-time-covid-crash


Mtl JP  16:32:29 GMT - 04/29/2021  
legalese , subpeona , (non / encrypted email
-
using email or textos ... that can

be subpoeaned



Mtl JP  16:04:22 GMT - 04/29/2021  
apparently
"12:00 The resurgent U.S. economy grew 6.4% in first quarter and even faster growth lies ahead" - MarketWatch


hk ab  13:59:43 GMT - 04/29/2021  
when radio+TV+taxi-drivers tell u to go for stox, you know what to do.

The boat is too tilted and for too long.....






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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