Methane warms the planet 20 times faster than carbon dioxide. Cattle account for more than 90 other polluting gases including two-thirds of the ammonia released to the environment. Ammonia is among the causes of acid rain. Ranching is among the major drivers of deforestation on a global scale. Overgrazing is turning ranges and pastures into deserts. Cattle are heavily reliant on water; rivers, lakes, swamps, and water pans are being drained to meet the demand for water considering that it takes 990 liters of water to produce a single liter of milk.
Sorry I forgot to state the point of the cumulative effects.
If a minimum of 5000 homes each got 96 sq ft inside their homes dedicated to philantrophy or simple air purification, then do the math and see how many pounds of pollutants would be stripped from the air and oxygen released back into it as a by product...
The cumulative land area of 5000 homes is massive. And how many pounds of oxygen were being generated (?) in those spaces before being taken over...?.
Caribbean! Rafe... 12:38:50 GMT - 09/18/2021
Global Lockdown... otherwise no use. The problem of low immunity to covid comes about because of air pollution. COVID was created in a lab by scientists who had to go home at the end of the day, so to get around them we purify the air inside our homes.
Pure air builds immunity in a natural way, and is the safest way is to create clean & smog free oxygen which prevents sickness, even when in proximity to herds, if even herds shift to another area is immaterial. A multi tiered flower bunk bed in an 8x4 space with 3 tiers is 96 sq ft of philantrophy and pure profit for farmers, a fruit deck usefully germinating fruit tree seeds into saplings transplanted into backyard farms harvested for commercial farmers, just for philantrophy sake. Tree seeds & saplings transplanted into tree farms growing wood for saw mills creates thousands of jobs, massive profits for tree farmers, might just save forests. Vegetables grown and given away to the farmers out of philantrophy is better for their profit, even homeless shelters would benefit. And I feel it would really and truly solve our global warming problems harmlessly, whilst building immunity naturally, stripping the air we breathe of pollutants & solving the problem of global warming which is most active during waking/sunlight hours. The crub (air pollution, smog, cow crub methane, heat generated by non-biodegradable plastic waste in landfills etc) left behind at the end of 1 day is creating enough waste to feed global warming for 1 week!!.
Mtl JP 09:30:41 GMT - 09/18/2021
On Wednesday September 22 President Biden will convene a virtual COVID Summit on the margins of the UN General Assembly.
This meeting is about expanding and enhancing our shared efforts to defeat COVID-19
FDA Advisory Panel Rejects Pfizer Booster Jabs Scuttling Biden Administration's Plan
Update (1530ET): A panel of senior advisors for the FDA voted against approving a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech jab for every patient over the age of 16, while leaving a door open to approving booster jabs for a more limited portion of the population including the elderly and the immuno-compromised.
The final vote tally was Yes: 2, No: 16, Abstain: 0
White House Plans To Donate Millions Of COVID Shots After Pfizer Says 'Mysterious' White Particles Are 'Safe
***see the news from Japan on vaxes: Pfizer 'white stuff' in doses found. Moderna 'black stuff' found. Metalalic contamination found---not sure which brand.)
Mtl JP 18:19:14 GMT - 09/17/2021
red shutting his trap would be denying one of the two trade-able market tactics: technicals and fundamentals
london red 18:05:59 GMT - 09/17/2021
well since a lot of methane comes from $hit, he could keep his trap closed for a while that would help.
Mtl JP 17:59:56 GMT - 09/17/2021
Like I wonder who exactly holds the on/off button on his microphone I also wonder who exactly is it that choses what sh-t gets typed on the teleprompter for him to read:
"Biden warns climate forum of ‘point of no return’ without bolder action, agrees to methane cuts"
Mtl JP 17:54:40 GMT - 09/17/2021
red 17:16 - maybe not till few fractions of seconds to 4pm EST
dog vs dog
Caribbean! Rafe... 17:16:25 GMT - 09/17/2021
dc CB 16:48 GMT 09/17/2021
FWIW... Money Masters giving 6.xx% p/a on riskless bonds. Pondering if I should bank on them or 91 day T's while waiting for opportunities. It's better than FD's. What say?
london red 17:16:17 GMT - 09/17/2021
bottom is in(?)
i dont claim to have a crystal ball but cnbc talking about 50dma so i will say now its written in stone mkt moves lower. 4415 interim pt or low. if they chose to do more 4300 plus minus 50 pips likely to be total low before move back up. if we see 200dma by 4100 then u wont see that again for another year imo. but i dont think they will let you buy that soon. think 43xx as best as can hope for for to pick up stuff.
dc CB 16:48:16 GMT - 09/17/2021
Clockwork---europe closes noon in NY arrives---bottom is in(?)
ZH: China's junk bond yields not just surged higher overnight, but have just surpassed the 2020 highs, printing 14.34% overnight, and the highest level since the great repo rate crisis of 2011
Tomrow Sept 18---'insurection redux'. Demonstrations in Wash DC, the fence it back up surrounding the Capitol. Trumps warns---
“On Saturday, that’s a setup,” Trump said, referring to the rally.
“If people don’t show up they’ll say, ‘Oh, it’s a lack of spirit.’ And if people do show up they’ll be harassed.”
london red 16:14:28 GMT - 09/17/2021
sellers of the 10 ran out of juice many times here by 1.38%. maybe some bear fireworks from china over wknd. i wouldnt like to be short bonds over wknd.
Mtl JP 16:11:21 GMT - 09/17/2021
10-yr 1.375, off a bit from its HoD
bears watching (like the pun)
Mtl JP 16:07:19 GMT - 09/17/2021
the number of dogs eating dogs is getting less n less:
- Friday, September 17th is a large Triple Witching expiration which means that many stocks/ETFs/Indicies have large options positions that will be closed at 4pm EST on Friday). Specifically, updated open interest figures now show 35% of SPX, 50% SPY, and 35% of QQQ gamma expiring tomorrow. As you can see below we now have 4465/75 as a “pin point” which a sharp drop in the SG Momentum down to 4400.' zh post ref'd by dc CB earlier
Mtl JP 15:47:40 GMT - 09/17/2021
discipline probably the key
Mtl JP 15:32:15 GMT - 09/17/2021
puppy s been there before
like a wolverine I smell evil human machinations
london red 14:41:38 GMT - 09/17/2021
(if you didnt buy the frontruns) remember to avoid the temptation to buy the 50dma. this is what they want you to do. the better r/r is at 4410/15. sometimes better to sit on hands.
london red 13:56:52 GMT - 09/17/2021
4414 a nice quick drop if 50dma touched. they frontran 3 days in a row. the time it touches it cuts thru? blame it on the options
Mtl JP 13:46:49 GMT - 09/17/2021
puppy is frolicking around the 92.50 price point ahead of next week's FOMC.
I am still looking for buying the USD and try to ride it uP on the FED's back. x-fingers
GVI Forex13:19:07 GMT - 09/17/2021
USD is following US yields moving higher
london red 12:26:04 GMT - 09/17/2021
its just a matter of time. if it comes down to losing control, they will light a fire below it. until then they will go to the moon...but will eventaully be worthless/banned.
Mtl JP 09:29 GMT 09/17/2021
disruptive, upheaval, drawbacks vs benefits, governments risk losing control over fiscal and monetary policies if multiple currencies vie for economic activity, None of this appeals to bankers
... "The Fed itself is expected to weigh in with its own report in coming days."...
There�s a Coming War Over Money and Cryptos. Why You Should Care.
By Daren Fonda
Mtl JP 10:20:00 GMT - 09/17/2021
US 10-yr 1.343%
"risk"s not exactly exuberant sofar this morning
Mtl JP 10:07:29 GMT - 09/17/2021
CPI: 4.1% Aug 2021
Federal election vote is on Sept 20
"We are Canada's central bank. We work to preserve the value of money by keeping inflation low and stable. This allows Canadians to make spending and investment decisions with more confidence, encourages longer-term investment in Canada’s economy, and contributes to sustained job creation and greater productivity. This, in turn, leads to improvements in our standard of living.” - BoC
Incumbent Liberal PM Trudeau: “I don’t think about monetary policy.”
Mtl JP 09:29:49 GMT - 09/17/2021
disruptive, upheaval, drawbacks vs benefits, governments risk losing control over fiscal and monetary policies if multiple currencies vie for economic activity, None of this appeals to bankers
... "The Fed itself is expected to weigh in with its own report in coming days."...
And the devaluation of the Euro is reinforcing inflationary pressures in Europe.
Lagarde never gets anything right.
Mtl JP 08:16:38 GMT - 09/16/2021
hump - a noun OR a verb ?
September 15, 2021
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - A spike in euro zone inflation to above the European Central Bank's target is a temporary "hump", the ECB says
Mtl JP 07:42:14 GMT - 09/16/2021
...Plus much attentio has been focused OPEX. ...
corr.: Plus too much attentio has been ...
the more I look at the hype around Q'd rights but no obligation the more all I see is just chop chop / chop chop; no fundamentals to spark a directional price drive. makes me think of ridiculous bar drunks jostling in an alley for a position and opportunity to p-ss on each others shoes while trying to avoid stepping on turds
dc CB 02:35:48 GMT - 09/16/2021
after 6 in a row, it is too obvious. Plus much attentio has been focused OPEX.
So now it's getting front run???
However the Next thing, now that OPEX is done, is not the FOMC, but Earnings Reports, and the Blackout Period for Buybacks. (aka lowering the number of shares outstanding to change the EPS for the report). Watch That space.
That afternoon ramp today...MSFT kicked it off----Buyback.
you do understand the forex trading concept of 'defending an option'. It used to be discussed here. Form Members would post about this or that option expiring at such and such a time...then the currency in question could be 'allowed' to move ---without the battle to hold a price above/below XXX, as Bettors using the option defended their position.
fyi--Vix Options on Vix futures for the front month expiry'd today, before the Cash open. Friday, Options of the SPX will 'settle' on the Opening Range price at the Cash open. As an added twist, the last Trade opportunity is Thursday afternoon.
Mtl JP 23:40:09 GMT - 09/15/2021
no chitt sherlock
"At end of the day, if bitcoin is successful governments will ‘kill it,’ says Ray Dalio" - Sept. 15, 2021
Mtl JP 23:25:05 GMT - 09/15/2021
quadruple witch options expiries
more of a bunch of opposing nervous nellies
trying to snooker each other , mostly trying to come out through
the birthing canal not seriously wrinkled
I am still not clear on what is the - hopefully profitable - trade.
Mtl JP 22:37:21 GMT - 09/14/2021
JM I hoped the quote marks would convey sarcasm *..*
NY JM 18:38:46 GMT - 09/14/2021
JP, old story
Jill Biden is not a medical doctor
lakewood jjlkwd 17:55:33 GMT - 09/14/2021
back to 4444
Mtl JP 17:31:22 GMT - 09/14/2021
where is biden's "doctor" wife ?
"New York hospital to pause delivering babies after workers quit over vaccine mandate"
Mtl JP 17:25:37 GMT - 09/14/2021
4433.75 new LoD
on my toy, fwiw
lakewood jjlkwd 17:14:35 GMT - 09/14/2021
PPT at the ready with the BTFD logo on their hats.
Mtl JP 17:10:37 GMT - 09/14/2021
snp at D price-line
Mtl JP 15:00:59 GMT - 09/14/2021
bearish - I continue to prefer to be buying dollar
starting to turn out 1.18 is a bit of a pivot
Sup 1.18, 1.1770
Mtl JP 14:47:59 GMT - 09/14/2021
some interesting notions about uPs and DOwns of risk markets, also directions. (as always at one own's risk)
around minute 8 of the vid particularly caught my ear if only for the precision. but even that could be water under bridge and is without guarantee
Mtl JP 09:50:23 GMT - 09/14/2021
(Axios) U.S. spy chief: Yemen, Somalia, Syria and Iraq pose greater terror threat than Afghanistan - Zachary Basu
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said Monday that terrorist groups operating in Yemen, Somalia, Syria and Iraq currently pose a greater threat to the U.S. homeland than those in Afghanistan.
Mtl JP 09:42:29 GMT - 09/14/2021
(Bloomberg) -- The world will have to wait until October for additional oil supplies as output losses from Hurricane Ida wipe out increases from OPEC+, the International Energy Agency said.
Mtl JP 09:34:49 GMT - 09/14/2021
for the immediate s/t good summary:
Tue, September 14, 2021
Stocks Waver Before U.S. CPI; Crude Oil Advances: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks and U.S. futures fluctuated ahead of inflation data that could influence expectations about the Federal Reserve’s likely timing for paring stimulus. Treasury yields and the dollar were steady. .../.
Mtl JP 04:43:11 GMT - 09/14/2021
On deck 14 September, Tuesday
CPI - truth (hahaha) about inflation
asia appearing undecided atm
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:48:57 GMT - 09/13/2021
Global computer usage produces twice the greenhouse gases as the aviation industry... Maybe it had been forgotten of all the other dangers and optical illusions caused by involvement in illegal bitcoin mining operations tending to cause... 1 3/4 bottle mustard ringed on a soggy fullhouse pizza (homemade) with double extra cheese ... yeeeuck! That's why many said... half barrel of smarter smelling salts should do the trick.
dc CB 20:10:29 GMT - 09/13/2021
dc CB 18:36 GMT 09/13/2021
"Biden to announce new pandemic steps..
stox slowly getting closer to lows of the day.... this time i dont expect the bounce . going long usdcad . with 30 pip stop
dc CB 18:36:28 GMT - 09/13/2021
"Biden to announce new pandemic steps..
Other headlines not in MSM press:
Panel Of Scientists Determines Most People Don't Need Boosters; Moderna Plummets
Michigan Health Care System Says Workers With Natural Immunity Don't Need Vaccine
Recall election Calif Gov Tues:
California Republicans Shocked To Discover They've 'Already Voted' In Recall Election
Hoppy Quad Witching week
Mtl JP 18:24:39 GMT - 09/13/2021
"Biden to announce new pandemic steps ahead of U.N. meeting Tuesday, as global COVID-19 case tally nears 225 million " - yoo-pee
70.39, HoD 70.95
puppy 's trying ...
Mtl JP 16:41:32 GMT - 09/13/2021
It has been said rewards go to the brave
Online traders are placing little likelihood of a tapering announcement being made at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting in Washington.
The odds of no announcement from the Sept. 21-22 gathering were 93% as of Monday, according to the new online trading platform Kalshi. That is up from roughly 69% on Aug. 30. More than 8,000 contracts were traded on the anticipated outcome, with each contract pegged to one dollar and percentages expressed as cents.
One big question on the minds of investors has been how much the U.S. stock and bond markets can stand on their own once the Fed finally starts to pare its $120 billion of monthly asset purchases. .../..
dc eluded to it last wk. options expiries coming up and that 50dma close by. i would prefer a quick drop thru towards 100dma which would set us up nicely for an undisturbed rally into jan next year. but youll take what you can get and you sure can start buying in some areas from the 50dma.
Mtl JP 14:46:21 GMT - 09/13/2021
bearish under 1.19
currently prancing around it 50-day
IF it can stay under, maybe it ll mozie over to 1.17/1.1650-ish
Mtl JP 14:40:51 GMT - 09/13/2021
EURUSD in near perfect subjugation to the uPs and DOwns (whims) of DLRx
NY JM 14:36:29 GMT - 09/13/2021
Has the pattern shifted?
Pre-US opening stocks marked up and then selling off when US opens??
Mtl JP 10:01:28 GMT - 09/13/2021
First EarthRight (funded by Soros-backed Open Society) got a Dutch court to force Royal Dutch Shell to make deeper, faster cuts to its climate warming emissions on the basis of human rights. Why not go after
Global computer usage produces twice the greenhouse gases as the aviation industry
Emissions, including from phones and other smart technology, account for almost 4pc of all greenhouse gases spewed into the atmosphere
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government has backtracked on controversial plans to introduce vaccine passports domestically and is set to end draconian emergency powers given to the state under the Coronavirus Act, in a major concession to anti-lockdown factions within the Conservative Party.
Appearing on the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme on Sunday, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said in reference to vaccine passports: “I’m pleased to say we will not be going ahead with plans.”
“We shouldn’t be doing things for the sake of it,” Javid added.
The Health Secretary also said that while he currently cannot make any firm commitments, he does not expect another lockdown to be imposed on the country, saying: “I’m not anticipating any more lockdowns… I just don’t see how we get to another lockdown”.
Mtl JP 12:20:46 GMT - 09/12/2021
"Facebook to buy $100 million worth of unpaid invoices from businesses owned by women and minorities" - cnbc
and the lesson is ___
pretend u r a woman, minority or preferably both
Mtl JP 11:27:15 GMT - 09/12/2021
more moRE catching up on some headlines
this time about the FED, taper & preparing
preparing taper, preparing players
Big Rate Increases in Store if Fed Policy Set by Rules Sept. 9, 2021 - WSJ
Fed Officials Prepare for November Reduction in Bond Buying
Phasing out the Fed’s pandemic-era stimulus by the middle of 2022 could clear the path for an interest-rate increase By Nick Timiraos, Sept. 10, 2021 - WSJ
Caribbean! Rafe... 10:53:08 GMT - 09/12/2021
So you see, I told you didn't I?... ROTFL
Thanks to the media, they gave me the JUSTAMENTALS I didn't at that time have.... I'm lauhing like ROTFLMAO!!!!!
Caribbean! Rafe... 10:48:06 GMT - 09/12/2021
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:48 GMT July 26, 2021
Upcoming Global Correction: Reply
I can anticipate an upcoming global correction across all markets in the coming future. And all I will say is don't panic. To get around this I suggest the regulators may wish to take that chance for the implementation of longer market hours by 0.5x, as market dives can be absorbed by smaller upwardly ordered movements, thereby avoiding...
catching up on some headlines
Yellen Warns US on Track to Default in October - Sep 9
Biden Advisor Cedric Richmond on vaccine mandates: "Those governors that stand in the way, I think it was very clear from the president's tone today, that he will RUN OVER THEM." - on CNN, Sep 10
Bitcoin to Bucks: Crypto Fans Borrow to Buy Homes, Cars—and More Crypto - WSJ, Sep 10
Upstart lenders make it easy to take out loans backed by cryptocurrency holdings. Regulators are watching. me too. I envy some of those folks: those making scads of moo-laah
A Stock Market Selloff Needs a Trigger. Here’s What Could Cause the Next One - Barrons Sep 10
More Strategists Say a Storm Is Brewing in the U.S. Stock Market - Bloomberg Sep10
The S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming - Barrons Sept 10
When the Fed finally steps back, can the U.S. stock and bond markets stand on their own legs? - MarketWatch, Sep 11
london red 14:33:20 GMT - 09/10/2021
s&p 4470 on cards then 4444 gap (spx)
london red 14:30:17 GMT - 09/10/2021
many metals up lrg today, despite soft stocks. demand? ppi?
Mtl JP 14:25:06 GMT - 09/10/2021
or maybe the sentiment-lifting (ref PAR 07:01) phone “broad strategic discussion” between biden his boss already reflects either details of the yak or just its half-life
Mtl JP 14:07:27 GMT - 09/10/2021
this puppy needs a jolt
maybe from a sharp object
Mtl JP 14:05:50 GMT - 09/10/2021
snp 4491 and crapping fast
Hod 4517. maybe someone noticed my 23.39
dc CB 02:39:22 GMT - 09/10/2021
Mtl JP 22:59 GMT 09/09/2021
hahaha ! I suppose with their "help"
-Bitcoin could collapse
If you have been paying attention to the pandemic then it should be clear that ''they'' can do anything ""they"" want to Bitcoin.
And the response would be---' so what' or 'what's Bitcoin. Like the vending machine at the supermart, by the checkout. Buy Bitcoin Here.
And then the newscycle would be over....
Mtl JP 23:39:52 GMT - 09/09/2021
bullard in FT a day or two ago
"The big picture is that the taper will get going this year and will end sometime by the first half of next year,"
now that is what I call a clear statement:
- ahead of time
- begining and end time-line
on the other hand ... one needs to decides some things for themselves about what comes out of a FED suit.
Mtl JP 23:20:15 GMT - 09/09/2021
suddenly they get gripped by their sense of "commitment to Fed ethics guideline" . epiphany. rofl.
"Regional bank presidents defend their stock trading over the past year" - By Michael S. Derby
a bunch of clows. but clowns that cost me money.
Mtl JP 22:59:14 GMT - 09/09/2021
hahaha ! I suppose with their "help"
Bitcoin could collapse and isn’t ‘a good safeguard of value,’ warn global central bankers - By Mark DeCambre
Tallinn viies 18:10:47 GMT - 09/09/2021
first of course to Putin.
this guy got good lesson from OPEC+ price management course from last year. How to reduce production to the level to create artificial deficit. and push up prices quickly. double trible whatever you need.
So they decided to to similar trick in europe gas market. few gas producers only. russia, norway and qatar. and then US with LNG.
If Russia producing meaningfully less (Russia in natural gas market in europe is similar to poec in oil world by importance).
nobody knows when they restore normal production. winter is coming, reserves lower than normal going toward winter and here we go.
all trades, long to the neck, hedge funds adding every single day long on paer market and gas is not coming to the market.
so. fingers crossed they do not kill the economy.
lakewood jjlkwd 18:08:13 GMT - 09/09/2021
from 3-4 took 2 months from 4-5 took 2 weeks. what heat source does the white house have ? maybe biden will see the inflation there. its not showing in his diet as hes too old for pork and red meat !!!
Mtl JP 17:56:11 GMT - 09/09/2021
off trading topic
fvck howard's want for his freedom to live:
- Howard Stern to anti-vaxxers: ‘F— their freedom, I want my freedom to live’
when this loudmouth cretin had a short-lived radio stint here in Montreal some time ago, he bombasted that if some medical research on last live animal would mean that it would solve his life-threatening disease he he would be for.
Mtl JP 17:44:56 GMT - 09/09/2021
who gets credit for high(er) natgas price ?
Mtl JP 17:41:16 GMT - 09/09/2021
dc CB 17:25:56 GMT - 09/09/2021
10:35AM low 4.82
10:40AM hgh 5.047
Widow count---45---looking for new husbands...$100K monthly income need only apply.
Mtl JP 17:19:06 GMT - 09/09/2021
- Res 1.1850, more or less 1.880, 1.19
- Sup 1.1810, .1800, 1.1780-ish, 1.1750
today christine and her ecb know how to yank the goat
Mtl JP 16:53:21 GMT - 09/09/2021
bit of a yingyang day around its 55day
london red 07:08:56 GMT - 09/09/2021
ft100 sup 6993 and 6986. prev low and breakout channel retest. quick sharp drop if doesnt hold as nxt sup about a hundred below
Mtl JP 06:55:13 GMT - 09/09/2021
11:45 GMT - ECB. at the same they are sending out some vp to yak
Mtl JP 05:16:49 GMT - 09/09/2021
EURO 1.1810 -- at s/t Support, tested 3x on the hrly sofar
snp ... 4495 so far protecting 4475 and 4460
Mtl JP 18:31:55 GMT - 09/08/2021
Fed's Beige Book says economic growth dropped to 'a moderate pace'
dc CB 18:18:34 GMT - 09/08/2021
The auction priced at a remarkable 1.338% - remarkable not only because the yield was a drop from last month's already stellar 1.34%, making it the lowest 10Y yield since February's 1.155%, but because the auction stopped through the When Issued 1.352% by a whopping 1.4 bps, making this the fifth consecutive stopping through auction, the longest such stretch in recent history
EURO LoD 1.1802 for practical purposes ..
main Support, needs to resolve the next Qtn.
I got this puppy in the bag now, will need to see convincing break or repulse
Mtl JP 10:23:19 GMT - 09/08/2021
oohhhh hohoho ...
piling the pressure on , eh ? wonder who goaded him
"The Fed shouldn’t allow the White House or financial markets to bully it into continuing easy-money policies that could lead to a steep recession or stagflation"
Peter Morici is a columnist for MarketWatch. He is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business of the University of Maryland.
I am happy to partial t/p here.
see what happens around 1.18 or 1.1830
I am like a whore: no commitment. just grab n pocket what I can
Mtl JP 08:02:06 GMT - 09/08/2021
typically but not always (that is why sl discipline is top) lower euro => higher dollar => lower "risk" appetite
Mtl JP 07:58:21 GMT - 09/08/2021
sitting on what should be minor Sup
Mtl JP 07:55:19 GMT - 09/08/2021
snp 4500.75 ... 2nd time around testing round number
at nearly 4am in NY, time is getting short but still enough to try
Mtl JP 07:23:15 GMT - 09/08/2021
London buddies at play again
with Supp price-point
Mtl JP 00:36:37 GMT - 09/08/2021
Fauci on COVID-19 vaccines: ‘The optimal regimen will ultimately be that third shot’
Mtl JP 23:17:26 GMT - 09/07/2021
Da.mn , that was some good volatility violence in bitcoin today
why the disagreement ?
Mtl JP 14:37:18 GMT - 09/07/2021
EURO 1.1840 / 30
Sofar 1.19 appears a bridge too far.
at 40 puppy is closing in on some s/t support price points, namely 1.1830/00
Res 1.19 & 100day
Sup 1.1825/00; below 1.17
Mtl JP 14:26:52 GMT - 09/07/2021
DLRx 92.45 - puppy is stiffening, going uP
typically but not always, higher dollar dampens stock enthusiasts
also higher dollar -> lower euro (that relative thing again)
Looks like players are plinking off crappy friday NFP and focusing on the "taper"-ing race between the FED and ECB gangs.
So far players appear to betting on the FED
Mtl JP 08:20:54 GMT - 09/07/2021
Steven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch's coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities.
You probably could’ve won a nice bet if you had wagered the European Central Bank would start reducing its asset purchases before the Federal Reserve would. ... . .. Still, heading into Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, economists are now expecting a modest reduction in the rate of bond purchases made using the central bank’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program." .../..
Just lets break out strong the 1.19 level and then we can reach 1.20 easly.
PAR13:59:03 GMT - 09/06/2021
A US holiday is always good for US stock index futures.
PAR 13:26:03 GMT - 09/06/2021
Lagarde = Macron poodle
So no tapering till after he is reelected.
That should bring us to may 2022.
Read my lips.
Mtl JP 09:06:35 GMT - 09/06/2021
According to MarketWatch's Vivien Lou Chen:
"In a world filled with plenty of uncertainties, the almost $7 trillion-a-day currency market is being seen as perhaps the best venue for trading the diverging policy paths of central banks worldwide in the pandemic’s delta era. ... . .. Currency players– who are, by nature, acutely aware of what’s happening every day, everywhere around the globe — are used to occasional periods of short-term uncertainty, in which they assess which regions will hold up better than others. What’s unique this time around is that the lack of clarity comes as central banks worldwide are intent on unwinding roughly 18 months of extraordinary stimulus — albeit in a less-than-uniform way." .../..
try ... to chose wisely
(Bloomberg Sept 5, 2021) ECB Dares to Ask If Crisis Stimulus Can Be Pared Back: Eco Week
The European Central Bank will decide this week if it should dare to dial down emergency stimulus while the pandemic still menaces the euro-zone economy.
The threat posed by the delta variant of the coronavirus could yet embolden policy makers on Thursday to keep up the “significantly higher” pace of bond purchases they adopted earlier this year. But advanced vaccination rates, a robust rebound and inflation that is already at the fastest in a decade are all reasons to consider a downward shift in gears.
Until now, the ECB has insisted that any surge in consumer prices is destined to be temporary, allowing officials led by President Christine Lagarde to keep crisis stimulus flowing. That contrasts with global counterparts such as the Federal Reserve, where policy makers may consider a move to scale back asset purchases in November or December, after Friday’s disappointing jobs report made action of this kind unlikely this month.
With inflation now at 3% in the euro region, ECB officials are diverging more on the outlook for consumer prices. Greek central bank chief Yannis Stournaras suggested to Bloomberg last week that officials shouldn’t overreact, advising “caution.”
But in a hint of arguments to come, his Dutch colleague Klaas Knot said that the goal of the ECB’s crisis bond-buying program, of limiting the damage to inflation inflicted by the coronavirus, is almost achieved. He favors a more restrictive approach to stimulus after the measure’s scheduled end in March.
Such remarks suggest that whatever officials determine about bond-buying for the coming months, this week’s decision is only the first of several likely skirmishes on the future of ECB monetary policy.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“The easiest option for the ECB would be to keep buying bonds through PEPP at a ‘significantly higher pace’ until the end of the year. The central bank could begin tapering in January.”
dc CB 00:47:45 GMT - 09/06/2021
this is just one company. not a rec to trade it. there are many.
The Wrath of Ida---energy prices.
Hoppy Labor Day!
HOUMA, La. (AP) — Full restoration of electricity to some of the hardest-hit areas of Louisiana battered to an unprecedented degree by Hurricane Ida could take until the end of the month, the head of Entergy Louisiana warned Saturday.
At least 16 deaths were blamed on the storm in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Ida damaged or destroyed more than 22,000 power poles, more than hurricanes Katrina, Zeta and Delta combined, an impact Entergy President and CEO Phillip May called “staggering.” More than 5,200 transformers failed and nearly 26,000 spans of wire — the stretch of transmission wires between poles — were down.
Mtl JP 23:28:31 GMT - 09/05/2021
minor Res and possible stop hunt as I type
I am biased down euro, uP dlr; looking for opportunistic opps
think 1.19 needs to be tested and hold Res
dc CB 15:49:30 GMT - 09/04/2021
COVID factors in insurance rate bump for some state residents
Will affect those who buy through state health exchange
State regulators say the cost will rise in the coming year for many who buy their own health insurance, largely a result of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
The rates approved Friday are only for those who buy plans through the state’s health exchange or directly from a carrier under the program created by the Affordable Care Act. Most buying this coverage, known as Obamacare, do not get insurance through their employers.
The premium hikes for the nearly three dozen plans offered by three insurance companies on the exchange average about 2.1%. But about two-thirds of people buy the CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield HMO plans, and the average premium for those will rise 6.2%
The plans begin in January and people will be able to re-enroll or pick a new plan soon. Nearly 222,000 Marylanders have plans now, with tens of thousands added during an extended special enrollment period for those who lost insurance during the pandemic.
Birrane noted that 79% of people get some subsidy that was widely enhanced by federal legislation related to the pandemic. So she advised people to shop around for a plan that may cost less. Subsidies are only available for plans purchased through the state online marketplace, not on plans bought directly from a carrier.
Kaiser offers the second most popular plans, with about a quarter of the market. Those plans will rise an average of 5%
Kaiser ended its policy of waiving out-of-pocket costs for COVID-19 treatment at the end of July, and consumers are now responsible for their share of those bills.
Moreover August is the worst month for anything no matter what it is, see CB's post for August 29 and occurence of hurricanes 20 years apart but occuring on the same day...
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:31:50 GMT - 09/03/2021
My answer is acceptance... moreover, usually before holidays markets go a little bit thin... and august is the worst month, usually picks up in september, so don't worry about it.
lakewood jjlkwd 18:19:57 GMT - 09/03/2021
i have the same question. my answer is holiday weekend thin volumes....jewish new year on tue/wed so last trading day for almost a week......even though im bearish usdcad wont hold it over so long unless i really reduce the size and then why bother...throw in bank of Canada on tue for some extra volatility and it makes no sense.
Mtl JP 15:59:51 GMT - 09/03/2021
NFP 235K vs ~750 expectation
I would like a scientific explanation
why is euro not N of 1.19 and close to 1.20
alternately, what what are bond types discounting now ?
Mtl JP 14:37:05 GMT - 09/03/2021
next week is ECB's turn to announce to taper or not to taper.
in my esteemed opinion, I opine that
lagarde the dove will trump the hawks
Mtl JP 23:10:02 GMT - 09/02/2021
can you devine into tomorrow' NFP
WSJ - U.S. Unemployment Claims Fall to 340,000, Remaining at Pandemic Low
Jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 340,000 last week, a new pandemic low as businesses hold on to workers despite the s...
UK DT 19:03:07 GMT - 09/02/2021
1.19 is looking likely imo
lakewood jjlkwd 18:26:54 GMT - 09/02/2021
current target is 1.1907 with 1.2265 after that if it can stay above the 1.1907. the last thing the USA needed was for a big storm to hit a decent swath of the country from LA up to PA,NY,NJ leaving damages all the way.
Mtl JP 18:17:14 GMT - 09/02/2021
puppy may not need an NFP miss to help it on quest to 1.19 handle
I am thinking 1.19 should be decent Res coz even if players gun for it,
soon after they play the fed taper before ecb ticket
ps I may be really really wrong about that
Mtl JP 17:45:08 GMT - 09/02/2021
psychological assessment of me
who wants to have a go at it ?
for I am still looking for signal and opp to long the pig
just as it keeps snaking down lower n lower bit y bit
Mtl JP 16:19:29 GMT - 09/02/2021
puppy starting to take on bullish tone
Mtl JP 16:14:53 GMT - 09/02/2021
looks like 1.2600+ is a bridge too far
Mtl JP 09:38:41 GMT - 09/02/2021
emotions vs rational judgements
Richard Curtin is a research professor at the University of Michigan and has directed the consumer sentiment surveys since 1976. (phew , that is a long time. I d think that by now he d be past "opinion" about the matter)
one's garbage = another's treasure
.."The combination of the fund’s lower-risk profile and owning no fossil fuels has dragged on its year-to-date and one-year returns, Schwab says, as traditional energy yields improved and investors embraced more risk amid the economic recovery this year."..
not missing much to make double top
not close to winter yet
Mtl JP 15:46:52 GMT - 09/01/2021
Kevin - Syd wr 07:19 GMT June 17, 2021 ... I am privy to the flows.
is a definite advantage just popped into my mind
Mtl JP 14:55:02 GMT - 09/01/2021
I am speculating that without more eagerness buy "risk" enthusiasts
dollar's downside is limited against the euro
HK Kevin 14:48:05 GMT - 09/01/2021
Next resistance at 1.1908 following the break of 1.1847.
Mtl JP 14:43:52 GMT - 09/01/2021
Kevin - thks; we ll see shortly I suppose
Mtl JP 14:42:05 GMT - 09/01/2021
lets see how solid or not 1.1850 as Res is
HK Kevin 14:37:51 GMT - 09/01/2021
Mtl JP 14:09 GMT, I have took home 10+ pips from short the EUR at 1.1847 earlier. However no sell signal spotted and can't confirm high of the day has been seen.
Mtl JP 14:36:42 GMT - 09/01/2021
at noon - bostic will into and ventillate on the matter of he calls "inclusive economy". yakking about this topic should not register w/money players
Tallinn viies 14:13:46 GMT - 09/01/2021
not bad bet as expected daily trading range 50 points and it is already 54 points.
Mtl JP 14:09:17 GMT - 09/01/2021
I am betting the HoD has now been seen
Mtl JP 03:45:29 GMT - 09/01/2021
in the meantime snp is uP another 10 pts
lets see what London does w/it
dc CB 02:54:08 GMT - 09/01/2021
so, they actually let you trade with your own money?
Reuters reported on the efforts to restart oil and gas production in the Gulf, which will translate into higher prices at the pump:
Hundreds of oil production platforms remained evacuated and nearly 1.1 million homes and businesses in Louisiana and Mississippi were without power on Monday afternoon. Refineries in Norco and Belle Chasse, Louisiana, remained swamped a day after the storm passed, images showed.
Entergy Corp, the largest power utility in Louisiana, warned there was “catastrophic” damage to transmission lines. One tower that provides power collapsed at the height of the storm and its power lines fell into the Mississippi River, the utility said.
Exxon Mobil Corp halted operations at its 520,000 barrel per day (bpd) Baton Rouge oil processing and chemical complex due to lack of power and raw materials, a spokesperson said. Phillips 66 will conduct a post-storm assessment at a refinery in a hard-hit area of Louisiana “when it is safe to do so,” said spokesman Bernardo Fallas.
Mtl JP 00:06:46 GMT - 09/01/2021
levy held. what is the whine
dc CB 21:45:48 GMT - 08/31/2021
Katrina - august 29 2005...under Pres George W Bush.
Ida - august 29, 2021... under President Joe Biden.
207 transmission lines spanning more than 2,000 miles were knocked out when Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, with 150 mph winds, on Sunday.
from the Louisiana's govenors press conf.
"many of the life-supporting infrastructure elements are not operating right now."
meanwhile---in a parallel universe:
Reporter: so Joe, hows about a trillion or two for some 'infastructure'......ida like to know?
Update (1302ET): Moments ago, Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards spoke with reporters at a press conference. He said following Hurricane Ida, it may take upwards of 30 days to restore power to parts of the state.
wonder exactly what wall of worry Gold is climbing
tia for tots
Mtl JP 18:47:56 GMT - 08/31/2021
that is uP from that weird dunk to 1675 low on aug 8th
Mtl JP 18:38:23 GMT - 08/31/2021
the undeniable age-old attraction of Gold:
"Customs officials in India find smuggled gold in hair, underwear, shoes — and even knitted into handbags"
and one can't even eat it ...
Mtl JP 17:56:11 GMT - 08/31/2021
Biden to address nation
according to Jen Psaki Biden “will lay out his decision to end the war in Afghanistan after 20 years, including the tough decisions he made over the last seven months since he took office to bring the war to a close.”
like parsing through this msm flow of hot/cold headline bs
11:25 ‘Recovery is not yet showing up for people who need it most’: Americans are spending less — and dipping into their savings
11:17 Does stock market volatility freak you out? How to be a calmer — and more successful — investor
11:09 Consumer confidence sinks to 6-month low on delta anxiety and high inflation
11:06 Home prices rise at record pace for third straight month — with 6 cities leading the hot housing market
Mtl JP 15:19:49 GMT - 08/31/2021
with respect to the dollar - and taper
I have only one use of the Fed gang: to game them
On one hand bunch of gang members come out all gung-ho for starting to taper. Then comes out their "leader", putting on an air of solemn prudence and gravitas.
My FED yik-yak AI interpreter says
it means the gang is close to tapering.
maybe somebody is already gaming Friday's NFP (what number would you like sir/madame?)
As per my earlier post:
I keep alert for USD buying opps
as I think nfp will be a signal the gang will like to use in their taper quest
Mtl JP 15:01:24 GMT - 08/31/2021
when dlr goes uP = euro goes down (relativity thing)
Mtl JP 14:59:00 GMT - 08/31/2021
euro 1.1806 - Fib
comeon puppy, rollover
1.18 then 1.1750
Mtl JP 13:11:28 GMT - 08/31/2021
talking of buying the d3vil.. 1.1820 = minor S
letssee how minor
Mtl JP 13:06:53 GMT - 08/31/2021
EURO 1.1836 up a bit
DLRx 92.42 is dumping some
Yeah ! Freedom and Liberty
..."now I don’t have to write investor reports or travel to meet with investors or worry about balancing funds or other people’s tax issues and things like that. So that’s allowed me just to concentrate on investing, which I like doing." - John Paulson
Pending home sales in the U.S. fall 1.8% in July
Mtl JP 13:38:14 GMT - 08/30/2021
Bias: blaahh. tight range,
Res 1.18, 50 day above that
NFP on Friday
Tallinn viies 12:54:51 GMT - 08/30/2021
opec needs more money to buy US weapons so you know the answer what to expect from them.
higher higher as long as economy not starting to feel it and then things turn bad quickly.
Mtl JP 12:03:36 GMT - 08/30/2021
OPEC meeting on wednesday on how to twist the valves
reading conflicting reports:
some to open 'em, others no need for more oil
Mtl JP 00:49:48 GMT - 08/30/2021
snp 4503.25 (slightly off its earlier far east 4513 high)
the game is about dollar's price-prancing
jobs reports this week loom potentially large
Mtl JP 00:21:12 GMT - 08/30/2021
(Bloomberg) - China to Cleanse Online Content That ‘Bad-Mouths’ Its Economy -- Sat, August 28, 2021
China kicked off a two-month campaign to crack down on commercial platforms and social media accounts that post finance-related information that’s deemed harmful to its economy.
The initiative will focus on rectifying violations including those that “maliciously” bad-mouth China’s financial markets and falsely interpret domestic policies and economic data, the Cyberspace Administration of China said in a statement late Friday. Those who republish foreign media reports or commentaries that falsely interpret domestic financial topics “without taking a stance or making a judgment” will also be targeted, it added.
The move is aimed at cultivating a “benign” online environment for public opinion that can facilitate “sustainable and healthy development” of China’s economy and its society, according to the statement. ..../..
Mtl JP 00:07:16 GMT - 08/30/2021
In the pair of legs making up eur/dlr
it is the energy in the dlr doing the driving
Mtl JP 21:15:08 GMT - 08/29/2021
post-powell: into the toilet
good for exports, is what they say
Mtl JP 17:22:08 GMT - 08/29/2021
transitory to what ... $8 - 10 ?
winter better be warm and / or
them windmills and solar panels better perform
Mtl JP 10:46:55 GMT - 08/28/2021
White House More Than Doubles 4th-Quarter Inflation Forecast - wsj
Administration expects consumer prices to rise 4.8% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, and lifts projections for growth this year.
• Household Income Jumps, Spending Slows
--- bad bad bad rotation
Caribbean! Rafe... 09:30:16 GMT - 08/28/2021
Commercial Exports excluding weapons... That is the only solution, but the problem is that cache of weapons left behind worth 85 Billion dollars is more like self-censorship into a cold war type scenario... we won't do business with them we won't export to them blah blah blah... What are interest rates for loans charged by banks to commercial exporters.
PAR 20:45:46 GMT - 08/27/2021
Most of the FED studies are just crap. Everything is transitory. Negative crude prices were transitory.
The war in Afghanistan was hopefully transitory.
If he told the same stuff in a first grade economy exam at a decent university he would maybe get a C minus.
Mtl JP 20:05:33 GMT - 08/27/2021
Par powell's yak was not about interest rates. That is a separate 2nd step issue.
THE issue at hand is that the latest round of QE kicked in last March in response to the COVID shutdowns.
the Fed gang is looking at tapering to signal that the economy has healed from COVID and additional stimulus is not required.
Once they get to that point, they will basically be back to where they were before COVID hit last year.
THEN the Fed can then consider raising interest rates down the road.
So.... you, me... they are looking at a 2 step process with the taper coming first, then potential rate hikes.
They still would want to be making sense with respect to their holdings of crap:
try to reconcile buying bonds with hiking interest rates at same time - rate hikes would suggest that bond purchases are no longer needed.
To keep it simple:
start with the taper. then look at rates
PAR 19:47:30 GMT - 08/27/2021
Powell will never raise US interest rates during his life.
Mtl JP 18:40:27 GMT - 08/27/2021
I ll have to see janet "go big" yellen's face to hopefully discern her (dis)/like of jerome's morning yak
PAR14:10:59 GMT - 08/27/2021
Powell reappointment guaranteed?
london red 14:03:13 GMT - 08/27/2021
powell one leg in one leg out. inflation/jobs.
more hawkish then before but probably not enough to move stocks lower as many were expecting more. so techs should outperform.
PAR13:54:35 GMT - 08/27/2021
Records for all indexes tonight?l
Mtl JP 11:54:48 GMT - 08/27/2021
re Mtl JP 08:27 - in case some think I was jesting
dog eat dog theme
Reuters Fri, August 27, 2021 - "Fed Chair Powell's big moment and 3 ways he could play it"
The stakes for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when he delivers a speech on Friday, his fourth at the influential Jackson Hole economic symposium hosted each August by the Kansas City Fed, could not be much higher.
Investors and traders will hang on his every word ...
Perhaps even more importantly, his words will be scrutinized by a White House considering whether to keep him for another four years, or nominate another leader to take over when his term expires in February.
"It’s an opportunity for him. If he really impresses people that he’s on top of all this, then that could really smooth the way for his reappointment," says Dartmouth College's Andrew Levin, an adviser to former Chair Janet Yellen and who in recent weeks has publicly advocated for a change in Fed leadership." .../..
subtle eh, how jerome is put on notice that the wolves - and their she-wolf - are lurking in the shadow ?
Mtl JP 11:35:41 GMT - 08/27/2021
100yrs ago is 3 generations
and their DNA is waking up
krauts going krazy for Gold
Bloomberg - Inflation-Wary Germans Are Loading Up on Gold
..“We have a long history of inflation fear in our DNA. Now the inflation risk is picking up,” said Raphael Scherer, a managing director at metals dealer Philoro Edelmetalle GmbH, whose gold sales are up 25% on what was already a strong 2020. “The outlook for precious metals is very positive.”
Germany’s love of gold has its origins in the hyperinflation seen under the Weimar Republic a century ago, which saw consumers’ buying power collapse.".../.
Bund 10-YR -0.411% +0.004
Mtl JP 10:27:17 GMT - 08/27/2021
fratelli di profitto
canadian banks qtr report shows ~14 billion in aggregate, uP 53% vs same Q last year
scotia bank the champ
Mtl JP 08:41:25 GMT - 08/27/2021
"Microsoft warns cloud customers of flaw that may have exposed databases: report" - MarketWatch
of how not bright it is to use "cloud" to store a database
Mtl JP 21:07:21 GMT - 08/26/2021
I thought trading money was a sordid (no heart and no soul) business
..."U.S. equity markets ended slightly lower Thursday after the Pentagon confirmed that 12 U.S. service members, and scores of others, were killed in two apparent suicide explosions and under fire from gunmen near Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, amid U.S.-led evacuations from the Taliban-controlled country. .. . ..
U.S. stocks, however, have been mostly unfazed after the Taliban rapidly took control" ...
or are they somehow after clicking headline to read that ", and amid reports that at least 60 Afghans and four U.S. troops were killed near Kabul airport" ... ?
Mtl JP 18:28:23 GMT - 08/26/2021
risk players warning jerome & co
london red 14:09:29 GMT - 08/26/2021
10y if abv 1.38 then 1.4250 test of broken channel line. if channel broken then could see big bond selling. however only likely if powell says tomorrow that they will give taper plan in september which may begin october and finish by march next year. for eg. if taper avoided then you can expect some bond buying but with delta likely at its peak its hard to see long yield under 1.20 this year all things being equal.
Mtl JP 12:49:41 GMT - 08/26/2021
DLRx 92.97 (uP some)
"risk" - looking wishiwashi, almost weak in conviction
EURO1.1760 - still in narrow cage
s/t bias wishiwashi, appears to have tuff time through 1.1780
Res 1.1780/1.18 and 50day
Sup 1.1760/50, 25, 1.17
GVI Forex12:49:08 GMT - 08/26/2021
Bullard repeats hawkish stance.
Mtl JP 12:39:20 GMT - 08/26/2021
viies mine is postulation about "surprise"
yours is a corollary
is slamming stocks as I type
Tallinn viies 12:22:43 GMT - 08/26/2021
exactly opposite view here.
even small hint from him that they are not ready yet to hike rates will push everything higher. from stocks to bonds and commodities. even cryptos jump higher after Powell speech.
Mtl JP 12:01:36 GMT - 08/26/2021
us gdp at 8:30
powell: jerome does not have to be hawkish.
if merely market perceives him even slightly hawkish will likely elicit market to move.
market has got him with his ass puckered over a barrel
Mtl JP 07:11:46 GMT - 08/26/2021
took a while for london to manifest selves
in the meantime might be a good idea to stock up on some medicines / essentials. and never mind the 2ndary issue of "inflation" potential
Mtl JP 00:28:02 GMT - 08/26/2021
like a true, regular general fighting last war that just passed:
Biden tells CEOs to ‘raise the bar on cybersecurity’; Big Tech pledges billions
ya, big tech guys needed that advice. ya, pledge.
I like the "billions" part, pledge ... niaahh
are putin and xi worried ?
Mtl JP 22:34:41 GMT - 08/25/2021
death cross (50x200)
experts forecast 1.80-2.0% by year-end
death cross , often but not always, signals direction lower
Mtl JP 19:02:02 GMT - 08/25/2021
but ... is it rotating ?
U.S. households and small businesses have stockpiled a mind-blowing record cash pile of almost $17 trillion - MarketWatch
is that why janet "go big" is goading biden's democrats to deficit-spend 3 or 4 trillion more if the peasants won't?
Mtl JP 18:44:39 GMT - 08/25/2021
testing 20day Res
Mtl JP 17:06:35 GMT - 08/25/2021
SnP500 cash: 4,501.08 HoD
now it is all about future: where next
that they got their milestone
Mtl JP 16:30:41 GMT - 08/25/2021
so reason , finally, prevails ?
OnlyFans says it will no longer ban porn in stunning U-turn after user backlash - cnbc
Mtl JP 15:49:23 GMT - 08/25/2021
4500 on proximity trgt radar
I have no doubt there are shorts built up into 4500
- Mtl JP 20:56 GMT August 16, 2021
Thing I d like to get some idea about ahead of time is ... how much above 4500 to trigger short giving up and cause a massive rally ?
Belgrade Knez 15:19:19 GMT - 08/25/2021
10 pips at the time .... few times a day .... and you fly first class!
lakewood jjlkwd 15:11:51 GMT - 08/25/2021
chop chop today...keep away from the screen or fingers will get cut
Mtl JP 14:07:53 GMT - 08/25/2021
IF I have to make a choice
I still prefer to sell a dollar rally should it manifest self
Mtl JP 13:39:48 GMT - 08/25/2021
Res 1.1750, 20day, 1.18
Mtl JP 13:34:56 GMT - 08/25/2021
another idle trading day
giving players time to throw around speculations
about what or how jerome will say
time to start looking out for market turning this or that way
in its dove/hawk expectation and then ...
jerome correcting players' "misunderstanding"
Mtl JP 12:41:16 GMT - 08/25/2021
08:34 U.S. dollar 0.3% higher at 109.95 Japanese yen
08:33 Euro down 0.2% versus U.S. dollar at $1.1733
08:33 2-year Treasury note yield up 2.3 basis points at 0.246%
08:32 December gold trade down 0.7% at $1,795.80/oz.
08:32 Gold futures pare losses slightly after data
08:32 10-year Treasury note yield up 2.4 basis points at 1.308%
08:32 Treasury yields remain higher after economic data
Mtl JP 12:26:28 GMT - 08/25/2021
08:30 - u.s. durable goods
GVI Forex11:24:58 GMT - 08/25/2021
US yields rising => usd following
dc CB 01:37:30 GMT - 08/25/2021
Dan Collins, China hand, with Max Keiser. China/Afgan/Iran.
starts - 11:30 in.
obviously I am bored:
Bloomberg - Chip Shortage Set to Worsen as Covid Rampages Through Malaysia
Mtl JP 15:26:15 GMT - 08/24/2021
EURO 1.1748, off its 1.1765 HoD
euro down -> dlr up -> "risk" either hesitates to go up or goes down some
Mtl JP 13:15:49 GMT - 08/24/2021
players are fade rallies -> players are likely to fade rallies
Mtl JP 13:15:24 GMT - 08/24/2021
players are fade rallies -> players are likely to fade rallies
Mtl JP 13:14:02 GMT - 08/24/2021
rest of the week leading to jerome's spot in the light is practically devoid of drivers. odds are players will either loaf around in the sun or, like puppies, playfully bite at each other's tails. Amongst the majors, JPY imo is likely canary . With respect to the DLR, players are fade rallies.
am slightly biased down
Sup 1.17; below 1.1665
Res 1.1775ish; 1.18+
Mtl JP 13:00:41 GMT - 08/24/2021
EURO 1.1749 = 2x top (i.e Res)
see if bid energy peters out around here
Mtl JP 12:28:11 GMT - 08/24/2021
"risk"s risk: 4475
Mtl JP 11:17:21 GMT - 08/24/2021
Should puppy break S around here
92.15-ish becomes trgt
Mtl JP 09:41:17 GMT - 08/24/2021
4491.75 - HoD so far
lets see ... dog eat dog
Mtl JP 06:46:13 GMT - 08/24/2021
chief executives meeting with President Joe Biden
Bbrg - The chief executive officers of Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. plan to attend a White House meeting with President Joe Biden this week to discuss efforts by private companies to improve cybersecurity following a dramatic uptick in ransomware and online attacks over the past year. .../.
they plan to attend ... bowahaha ... a meeting ... hahahaha ... wit ... rotflpmp
Mtl JP 06:34:23 GMT - 08/24/2021
puppy looks bearish
qtn is if the formation will be a H&S amputee (1.26 straight to 1.25) or
is there some dollar demand to see a bounce - say to 1.27-ish
Tallinn viies 06:34:17 GMT - 08/24/2021
wall of worry?
no, it is just night shift keeping things under control.
you do not let them to trade them around in the middle of the night with thousands of lots. just keep it there is a mission.
if you want to trade go and trade cryptos.
Mtl JP 06:23:41 GMT - 08/24/2021
4484.75 wall of worry
lets see what london does w/it
dc CB 17:25:36 GMT - 08/23/2021
a tremor detected?????
***With usage on the Fed's reverse repo hitting daily records as US Treasury supply shrinks as a result of a big drop in Bill sales, supply-demand imbalances continue to weigh on the U.S. dollar funding space as money-market rates, from Treasury bills to repurchase agreements, trade below the new yield on the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility.
As shown in the chart below, most Treasury bills through the 1Y tenor are yielding less than 0.05%, the yield on the Fed's Reverse Repo facility.**
another miserable trading day this lethargique puppy
Mtl JP 13:37:49 GMT - 08/23/2021
risk 4450.75 slight uP tendency
DOLLAR is off and stocks ~flat
players biding time ahead of jerome's diatribe
euro 1.1732 - there is the 5-60min player and the daily player parametriques.
For further encouragement, euro enthusiasts will need to see price prance above 1.1750. 1.18 looks strong Res.
Mtl JP 09:12:08 GMT - 08/23/2021
atypically london did not selloff the puppy
altho, atypically, NY might
Thematically msm hyping the "taper" theme co-blending the covid sh.tshow and
further serious supply chain disruption (about to get "real" again) ,
current market reminds of full-on mirage potemkin village with fake pricing
Mtl JP 08:49:32 GMT - 08/23/2021
TECHNICALLY puppy is bearish, altho not short term
as supposed earlier strong 1.1685/700 zone resistance now POOF!
current s/t Res 1.1730, 1.1750 above that
Biden Set to Raise Food Stamps in Biggest Permanent Boost Ever
Biden is set to announce the largest-ever boost to food stamps on Monday, the NYT reports. The average monthly benefit will rise to $157 per person from $121.
Biden's 2022 budget raises military spending past $750 billion
Today, President Joe Biden unveiled his administration's FY 2022 "skinny budget" .../..
Mtl JP 23:02:47 GMT - 08/21/2021
printer supporting printer
Powell’s Odds for Second Term Boosted by Yellen’s Backing
Bbrg August 21, 2021
- Powell faces battle winning approval from some Democrats
- Biden said to weigh in on Fed chair decision around Labor Day
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet - "go big" - Yellen has told senior White House advisers that she supports reappointing Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that greatly increases his chance for a second term.
Mtl JP 22:50:42 GMT - 08/21/2021
from the alleged presidency for all americans
- Anecdotes signal surprising number of infections in vaccinated
- Officials must formulate plans despite a dearth of hard data
Signs of pressure are already starting to gather around a meeting of vaccine advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that forms a key step in the Biden administration’s plan to give booster shots to most U.S. adults.
... .. ...
Anecdotes tell us what the data can’t: Vaccinated people appear to be getting the coronavirus at a surprisingly high rate. But exactly how often isn’t clear, nor is it certain how likely they are to spread the virus to others. And now, there’s growing concern that vaccinated people may be more vulnerable to serious illness than previously thought.
currency with quasi-appeal, wishiwashi
EURO 1.1680 (at Res point atm)
sentiment bias: down
currently in very narrow range
puppy has no attractants to induce a trade either way
Mtl JP 14:56:01 GMT - 08/20/2021
think about what are current "sensitive" drivers (du jour or of the moment)
- headline / perception about FED's taper
- some headline relating to china's gift (covid)
- relative interest move against / for the dollar
- headline about demand for some commodity/ies
there may be other drivers still
scanning the G10's relative price moves against the dollar (and some crosses) reveals strong winners and losers which, given both the credibility and half-live time decay (flightiness) of the headlines, offer fade-trade opportunities to exploit.
Mtl JP 02:51:53 GMT - 08/20/2021
but next Res would be ~1.2950-ish
Mtl JP 02:39:05 GMT - 08/20/2021
dc CB 20:48:01 GMT - 08/19/2021
Mtl JP 13:08 GMT 08/19
so as I sit, feet on table, chomping of fresh blueberries and scanning my screens ...
As every month surprising volatility into option expiration without any fundamental reason.
Mtl JP 19:52:39 GMT - 08/19/2021
the so-what trillion dollar "support"
srce: st louis fed
August 19: $1,109,938
August 18: $1,115,565
August 17: $1,053,454
August 16: $1,036.418
June 17: $756 billion
Mtl JP 19:27:31 GMT - 08/19/2021
never mind delivering that which the customer wants
(what the cust wants are F-150, Dodge Ram, Chevrolet Silverado)
morons at the wheel (apparently "they are eager") :
..."The learning curve with batteries is steep for traditional automakers, and battery technology remains challenging even for Tesla, which has faced similar issues. But automakers are eager to embrace the new technology with President Joe Biden in the White House pushing for half of new car sales to be electric by 2030, a plan that will likely come with billions of dollars in tax and other incentives." ...
so as I sit, feet on table, chomping of fresh blueberries and scanning my screens ...
DLRx is uP some
crude and other physical things are off some
interest on 10-yr is 1.24% - ~steady
euro 1.1697 only slightly under 1.17 and not showing hunger for "deepah"
gbp 1.3677 down below its 200ma, in sympathy w/euro
odds of a sept some kind of taper appear low if not near zero
- bearish euro, gbp;
- bullish usdcad and DLRx
Mtl JP 12:50:27 GMT - 08/19/2021
what is the market's common perception about "taper"
reduce the "minimum $120 billion/month" to ZERO
take away the word "minimum"
reduce the $120 to some lesser ( _?_ ) number
HK Kevin 09:17:57 GMT - 08/19/2021
NZD looks very attractive with weekly support at 0.6804. Watch closely right now
NY JM 09:08:03 GMT - 08/19/2021
Commodity currencies leading the risk off ssy.
london red 07:11:24 GMT - 08/19/2021
that should be it now that theyve had a chance to dump stocks on open. but as i say not sure will see a huge bounce til us trade. ft100 has sup from 7013-40, its there and also from 100dma, its there, but you can argue for 50dma or a bit more on spx which means 4350 50dma and 4292 channel halfway to 100dma. but i think one can buy worst hit stocks if us opens here, then maybe add more of others as they are hit further if mkt falls tomorrow to 4260 - - some $hit will still be overpriced on todays open and that will need more patience.
Mtl JP 06:59:58 GMT - 08/19/2021
pic for historical archive
(4362 as I type)
london red 06:57:10 GMT - 08/19/2021
those those prev lows relate to 73/72 on cash while gap is at 70. i guess london steps in when futures cross to cash fills gap. may not bounce much til us however. if they cant hold u look lower but only after a bounce. mindset still not change given money onsidelines.
Mtl JP 06:56:56 GMT - 08/19/2021
breaks of 200day can sometimes be powerful
lets see if this puppy is going to 1.36
Mtl JP 06:50:21 GMT - 08/19/2021
10-yr 1.24% only and yet
DLRx 93.435 (Res 93.52)
i.e. higher dlr currently not interest driven
Mtl JP 06:28:03 GMT - 08/19/2021
DOG FIGHT !!
Mtl JP 06:20:03 GMT - 08/19/2021
red 20:31 how exciting pic is this ?
low sofar: 4373.5
Mtl JP 23:18:11 GMT - 08/18/2021
extract from cox' piece:
“Now, it’s like you’re selling the rumor and buying the news,” he - Jim Paulsen - said. “I wonder if that’s what’s going to happen with official tapering.”
excellent postulation imo: adds to market uncertainty and therefor to anxiety
corona schmorona, taper, economy
bullard corecting yellen
“We are very concerned about the Delta variant and other variants that could emerge and threaten recovery,” Yellen Jul 11, 2021
Most Treasury yields remain higher after FOMC minutes and as Fed’s Bullard says delta variant won’t derail the economy.
“The economy has clearly adapted to the pandemic situation. Businesses have found ways to produce their products and services and households have found ways” to continue consumption,” he said. (Watch the interview here.)
“I don’t see the delta variant stopping that process,”
Mtl JP 19:36:36 GMT - 08/18/2021
at first slowly. then raoidly
snp 4413 = old Support price
now tested again
Mtl JP 18:04:44 GMT - 08/18/2021
the minutes should reflect how the FED is looking at tapering as a signal that the economy has healed from COVID and additional stimulus is not required. lets see:
big deal. bullard (and his ilk) will continue getting their th paycheck regardless of how they (mis)manage things
Mtl JP 16:25:07 GMT - 08/18/2021
so this is what it's boiled down to:
FED's trying propagandizing about its tapering.
Those players that are around are not eager to swallow Fed’s codswallop.
No evidence of pointing in one direction and gunning the gas pedal.
Makes me wonder if players actually give a flying-fk about the fed, corona or inflation.
Lets see how wrong I am :
Bullard yakking as I type
minutes at 14:00hrs
sofar market zzzs
Mtl JP 13:49:42 GMT - 08/18/2021
gremlin low interest and stockmarket crap -> s/b .. low interest and buying of stockmarket ..
Mtl JP 13:39:52 GMT - 08/18/2021
thematically the euro leg is the one with no energy (lagarde is on holidays after she set low interest and stockmarket crap for practically ever)
this puppy prances subservient to the tone set by the buck
as a pair it is bear
technically the pair is bearish
Is there a more evil spirited ccy than the euro teasing players as it is with promise of 1.16 ?
Mtl JP 11:53:44 GMT - 08/18/2021
10-yr 1.28 - approximately flat
"risk" - ever-so slightly looking down
08:30nyt housing start
14:00nyt FED's minutes
Mtl JP 11:38:51 GMT - 08/18/2021
ridiculous or awsome
mayhem in the making:
Ford unveils 2022 Lincoln Navigator with hands-free driving - cnbc
Top speed 157 mph (253kmh)
Curb Weight (lbs) 5995 (2719Kg)
Mtl JP 02:04:58 GMT - 08/18/2021
pic worth 1000 words
Mtl JP 01:41:08 GMT - 08/18/2021
RBNZ at top of hour
presser one hour later
Mtl JP 23:31:22 GMT - 08/17/2021
- doesn’t see any use case for bitcoin BTCUSD, the world’s No. 1 crypto, and referred to the broader digital-asset sector as one that is largely tied to fraud and hype.
“Cryptocurrency is 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,” Kashkari said, speaking at the Pacific Northwest Economic Regional Annual Summit in Big Sky, Mont., Aug. 17, 2021
Mtl JP 14:00:24 GMT - 08/17/2021
currently 4445ish looked like s/t S
now poof !
Mtl JP 13:20:56 GMT - 08/17/2021
some things on deck:
13:30nyt powell's Town Hall ... with Educators
15:45nyt kashkari's Town Hall (on Economy)
USD is uP against some, somewhat down against others (whack-a-mole)
10-yr 1.258% ~steady
EURO 1.1733 - on s/t Sup, slightly bearish
- IF no go N of 1.18 lets try 1.17
GVI Forex12:42:50 GMT - 08/17/2021
Weaker US retail sales => but yields up => usd up
Mtl JP 12:32:49 GMT - 08/17/2021
new trade opp
Aug. 17 (UPI) -- Most of New Zealand is going under a new COVID-19 lockdown for three days and two locations, including Auckland, will be under the restriction for a week after health officials found the first local transmission in six months.
Mtl JP 12:27:15 GMT - 08/17/2021
NZDUSD 0.6923 (LoD .6900)
RBNZ later tonite
what do players think they know what are they discounting ?
Mtl JP 12:19:45 GMT - 08/17/2021
viies - thanks for sharing your various "quick 15-20 points" trades
Mtl JP 08:17:00 GMT - 08/17/2021
red 07:26 - daft, beauty (janet) ...
"It is amazing how complete is the delusion that beauty is goodness" - Tolstoy
nothing is off bounds in propaganda
london red 07:26:16 GMT - 08/17/2021
yest low on snp is key cos they bought the dip. if gives way so soon can move a fair bit lower. but powell speaking today and given jackson is in a wk he is unlikely to rock boat today. besides if todays retail sales miss hard (weak cc) then he will look a bit daft talking about tapering maybe.
Mtl JP 07:16:48 GMT - 08/17/2021
red - snp is having yet one more kick at the snp can:
ny pushes it uP; london t/ps
trust (worthy) this guy ?
There’s growing support within the Fed to announce the tapering of bond purchases in September - Aug 16 2021, Steve Liesman - CNBC
Mtl JP 23:42:02 GMT - 08/16/2021
CB 19:57 quick cursory look could have me deduce that to keep millions un-employed and stocks to extend to new highs is a little over a trillion of idle "cash". Every day.
Mtl JP 20:56:55 GMT - 08/16/2021
Thing I d like to get some idea about ahead of time is ... how much above 4500 to trigger short giving up and cause a massive rally ?
HK Kevin 20:13:40 GMT - 08/16/2021
Thanks, red. Weekly chart still see room for 4500.
dc CB 19:57:03 GMT - 08/16/2021
4th day in a row,One Trillion is now "support"
Mtl JP 19:31:19 GMT - 08/16/2021
maybe they want 4500
london red 19:26:58 GMT - 08/16/2021
futs was 4468. they did that last wk. various etf indices prices come in 75-82
HK Kevin 19:25:11 GMT - 08/16/2021
london red 19:01 GMT, does 4475-80 refer to SPX or future ES price?
london red 19:01:33 GMT - 08/16/2021
4475/80 100% off lows.
lakewood jjlkwd 16:41:35 GMT - 08/16/2021
bucket shops using computers......
Mtl JP 15:48:52 GMT - 08/16/2021
puppy is approximately lethargic: nothing going for it in either direction, for now. 1.17/50 - 1.18/50 brackets
london red 15:02:27 GMT - 08/16/2021
JP, notice aapl made and new high and then they ran the bitch down. xx times sales all lower for a few days look at zillow crowdstrike. amazon has just filled gap today so may avoid further losses today but other ready to give up some. no big deal, lets get 5% to wipe out the leverage and start again. looking at ford about 12 and a quarter. also fedez agco and dow when price is right. i doubt msft gives it up but 260-275 would be nice
Mtl JP 14:26:55 GMT - 08/16/2021
snp's next S: 4430
Mtl JP 14:23:34 GMT - 08/16/2021
I am guessing - i.e. no guarantee - that friday's consumer sentiment was a cold shower.. just look at the mix of puppies that are doing uP and which are going dow.
DLRx overall appears to be struggling vs friday's move. Players are likely to keep an eye out for the minutes and jerome's "town hall" (crackling fire, cognac in one stoggie in another) as he ll likely try bamboozel them into thinking that he and his gang are getting closer - ever so slightly, but closer nevertheless, to what they publicly call "tapering asset purchases".
DLR should be snaking uP some in the short-term.
Mtl JP 12:20:24 GMT - 08/16/2021
snp's 2nd time around approaching its s/t Sup price line
feel the tension rising
Mtl JP 11:48:32 GMT - 08/16/2021
8:30nyt NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index
expectation: 31.1 vs prev.: 43.0
SnP - down some at open, little bounce up but so far not rushing uP
yellow line current Sup
Jackson Hole Aug 26-28 (taper pre-announcement?)
next FOMC: Sept 22
10-yr to 1.00 or 1.9 ?
choose side wisely
Mtl JP 09:41:40 GMT - 08/16/2021
Now that current minority gov't leader justin "admirer of chinese dictatorship" trudeau called a federal election (for sept 20) seeking a majority mandate, should he get it I ll expect massive tax increases and along with them nasti/er draconian gov't edicts.
Heel peasants !
Mtl JP 19:22:16 GMT - 08/13/2021
pic about that H&S 0.70 priceline I mentioned earlier
RBNZ next week
Mtl JP 18:54:17 GMT - 08/13/2021
cardinals' yellow line
friday 13th into the close
stock down -> dlr uP -> euro -> down
on circular relative principle
Mtl JP 18:37:44 GMT - 08/13/2021
reminding me of clinton's arguing about defining "is"
jerome powell essplaining "inflation" and "transitory"
what it is because of what it is not:
dc CB 17:51:37 GMT - 08/13/2021
1,050.941 Billion --- aka Day Three in a row of a Trillion Dollars.
Mtl JP 16:32:06 GMT - 08/13/2021
about that Michigan confidence
U.S. consumers suffered a ‘stunning loss of confidence’ in early August, University of Michigan survey finds
Aug. 13, 2021 By Greg Robb
A closely-watched gauge of sentiment plunges to 70.2 in August, lowest since late 2011
Mtl JP 14:57:14 GMT - 08/13/2021
puppy is close to s/t 1.18/1.1825 Res
Mtl JP 14:07:15 GMT - 08/13/2021
"those 65 to 80 Cardinals - to bolster the market, protect their positions in a downdraft, make the market go higher." ?
Mtl JP 13:29:42 GMT - 08/13/2021
fwiw UofM expected flat at 81.2
Mtl JP 13:27:41 GMT - 08/13/2021
on deck at top of the hour
US Consumer Sentiment
Mtl JP 13:22:11 GMT - 08/13/2021
DLR down off recent 93.17 high
euro N of 1.1750 Res
re dollar: price level and sentiment reflection feeling about "tapering" of what "they" call asset purchasing. currently it would appear players are at odds with the FED gang's announced taper messaging
s/t mild bullish
Mtl JP 12:31:36 GMT - 08/13/2021
"risk" - slight tilt uP
"Markets no longer fear inflation and stocks will continue to rally, HSBC says" - cnbc
popular mass illusion of getting rich ?
Mtl JP 08:02:27 GMT - 08/13/2021
PAR 06:28 thank you for kind words.
all I need next is a couple of timely, actionable posi-trade calls from dc CB 20:43
in bonds, fratelli di profitto
PAR 06:28:24 GMT - 08/13/2021
Enjoy the wealth the stock market bubble creates but buy some protection just in case a black swan event happens.
london red 20:41:59 GMT - 08/12/2021
JP, i hear ya. 4475/80 is a 100% move off march 20 lows. i guess they might see some blow back there. personally my cash levels have been elevated this past week. as you, i cannot put my finger on anything. just feels too good. we got 6% in march/april. usually you get a 5-10% once every 6-18 months on average. but then you gotta load up again.
all that said we arent super far stretched away from st averages its just that it feels like it since we had a big quick move off early july 50dma test and since then bumping across the ceiling like a moth. im only looking at special sits right now in deploying cash and it will stay like that until we get that 5-10% be it a month or a year. special sits throw up every week or two in any case. but you gotta stay patient until the time comes to do more.
Mtl JP 20:25:31 GMT - 08/12/2021
at risk of sounding like a zerohedge-ist (i.e dark, cynical or sarcastic)
these new stock records are leaving me, for some imprecise reason, little leery and nervous. It is a gut sentiment rather than cold technicals that could work against me, if only by making me forfeit potential additional gains as I play the 5-60min charts rather than skewer and sit.
Mtl JP 19:27:10 GMT - 08/12/2021
right on the righ shoulder of HRLY H&S
I am biased N here and buy shallow dips under
Mtl JP 18:48:05 GMT - 08/12/2021
just thinking. could be wrong
Say puppy hits 4500 at some point soon.
Will it T/P or
Will it blast past further North
as it triggers shorts' S/L ?
tia for thoughts
Mtl JP 15:00:43 GMT - 08/12/2021
not only did puppy resist pushing N of 93.18, it is pulled back some
means players are likely to continue to argue up or down a bit longer
EURO 1.1729 / not bull nor bear
now that 1.1705-ish been tested AND rejected
what is the puppy's theme that would drive it higher ?
chop chop chop
dc CB 18:09:10 GMT - 08/11/2021
1,000.460 Billion USD
dc CB 17:27:49 GMT - 08/11/2021
Yields Plunge After Strongest 10Y Auction On Record
Mtl JP 14:59:25 GMT - 08/11/2021
LoD 1.1705 on my toy
Puppy not showing much if any appetite for gallop N in a reversal
Action suggests a rest period before down trend resumes
letting the RSI on the daily to come up a bit
“We will take legal actions and we urge the hackers to return the assets,” Poly Network said
What is the point of crypto again ?
Mtl JP 08:24:14 GMT - 08/11/2021
"what number would you like sir/madame" day
CPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.9%
Core CPI m/m 1.2% vs 0.9%
CPI y/y 5.4% vs 5.4%
Core CPI y/y 4.1% vs 4.5%
Mtl JP 06:54:50 GMT - 08/11/2021
I think puppy is in for a pause now against technical Sup.:
1.1704, 1.17 and 1.1695 (Mar-Jan 38.2% Fib)
below: 1.16 without much tech support.
below below: odds are for a taming of down enthusiasm as puppy would be showing "oversold" including on eur/gbp.
Mtl JP 03:04:49 GMT - 08/11/2021
piddly canada <-> giant china: enough
xi's chinese court just delivered a guilty verdict on the 2nd michael.
(11 yrs, ~$10,000 and ... woohoo .. deportation)
the apparent magnanimous chinese diplomatic gesture should not cover over the probability that piddly canada 's pain-in-xi's-donkey has reached its ROI as justin's canada has been able to get a large coalition of countries to embarrass the communists china on world stage.
canadian province quebec just decreed vaccine passport starting sept 1.
plans a) and b) being kept secret sofar in case covpass does not satisfy the overlords
Mtl JP 21:54:47 GMT - 08/10/2021
mushroom farmers and their feeding mixtures
keeping count (earlier vs later):
Associated Press, Aug. 10, 2021 at 8:38 a.m
Fed should begin slowing stimulus efforts by fall, Boston Fed’s Rosengren says
..."Rosengren said in an interview with The Associated Press that the central bank should announce in September that it will begin reducing its $120 billion in purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds “this fall.”"
The Fed - Aug. 10, 2021 at 5:03 p.m
Fed’s Evans indicates he is not in favor of announcing taper plan in September
..."Several other Fed officials — but still a minority of them — agree with Rosengren."...
“There is clearly a gap opening up at the Fed,” said Neil Dutta, an economist at Renaissance Macro Research.
I do not agree with Dutta.
FED's Kabuki (politically: "empty show") getting little thicker.
I fully expect the FED gang is top-drawer Machiavellian, scheming how to lead the market just like one leads a bull with a ring in its nose and how to protect and maintain its credibility, assuming it still has it.
Mtl JP 17:17:49 GMT - 08/10/2021
$1 trillion bill - in
FED's obvious want to reduce adding fiat plan - in
time soon for market to pick the next theme to discount
london red 14:42:14 GMT - 08/10/2021
tech rate tantrum on its way
HK Kevin 14:32:14 GMT - 08/10/2021
Out at 4430.75
HK Kevin 14:23:00 GMT - 08/10/2021
Sold ES at 4437 earlier.
HK Kevin 14:10:53 GMT - 08/10/2021
It's now US stock index rule the forex market. Stock index up and commodity ccys up.
Mtl JP 12:49:46 GMT - 08/10/2021
mester yaks about "inflation" at 10am
Mtl JP 12:40:34 GMT - 08/10/2021
a) members of the FED gang now letting it be known that "taper"ing should be fast. BUT FIRST it has to start.
b) rates tightening ... aww well that, if I am judging their signaling correctly, is out two years
The FED, relatively speaking, is the leading aggressive taper & rate yapping dog
Mtl JP 11:25:28 GMT - 08/10/2021
1.1705/00 should be strong Sup
below looms 1.16
currently stocks looking leery, wary
lakewood jjlkwd 17:57:02 GMT - 08/09/2021
i guess usdcad at 1.2580 is also a candidate for
"old saw says number goes weaker with number of probes" .
Mtl JP 16:15:13 GMT - 08/09/2021
5th time probing 1.1740 Sup
old saw says number goes weaker with number of probes
take it fwiw
GVI Forex15:08:14 GMT - 08/09/2021
Look at US bond yields (up) snd fx correlation
Mtl JP 14:30:00 GMT - 08/09/2021
fwiw and for the record
JOLTS (out at 10am)
"The number of job openings rose to a record 10.1 million in June from a revised 9.5 million in the prior month, the Labor Department said Monday. That’s the fourth straight all-time monthly high.
Economists surveyed by Econoday expected job openings to rise to 9.29 million in June." .../.
Mtl JP 13:41:11 GMT - 08/09/2021
classic jubbs; tug between 4400 or 4500 first ?
Mtl JP 13:13:43 GMT - 08/09/2021
farming mushrooms today:
bostic at 10, barkin at noon
"risk" - in light mood neither up nor down either way
DLR - odds are for an overall trend uP, relatively speaking, in an environment of increased will they wont they taper yikyak environment.
Mtl JP 11:59:23 GMT - 08/09/2021
sometimes last week andy took umbrage
Andrew Bailey argues that using the word in such a way undermines the pain ... attacks peers for calling quantitative easing an 'addiction'.
Mtl JP 23:36:29 GMT - 08/08/2021
snp gaming the fed
(and dogs eating dogs)
for some unknown reason to me NY did not sell off into the close
which just kept up a higher price to sell
odds are puppy will close in on 4400 before NY comes in
Mtl JP 23:22:00 GMT - 08/08/2021
RBNZ on dek later this month
sub .7 makes me suspicious of some dingos
building a posi to attempt to game the CB
Mtl JP 20:36:02 GMT - 08/06/2021
Headlines summing up the week:
Treasury yields notch biggest weekly rise in over a month after Friday’s jobs report comes in hot
Dow, S&P 500 clinch new records after blockbuster jobs report
For the week, Dow climbs 0.8%; S&P 500 books a 0.9% weekly gain
Nasdaq Composite posts 1.1% weekly gain despite Friday's drop
Time to set up to game Asia when they come in on Monday
london red 15:13:14 GMT - 08/06/2021
small mid tech rolled over big tech is prob about to in face of yields holding up today. high beta etf (sphb) breaking above channel line today.
london red 14:00:19 GMT - 08/06/2021
seems like everyone now waiting to see if s&p reversal plays out as all waiting to buy 4400
PAR13:36:14 GMT - 08/06/2021
Reality vs Fantasy
Also worth noting - unadjusted for seasonal factors, employment actually dropped by 133,000. That’s mainly due to a big drop in government jobs. Private payrolls, unadjusted, climbed 779,000.
london red 12:48:39 GMT - 08/06/2021
he still has delta to fall back on. they will wait til november or december unless you get 1m a month from now on. but delta will figure next month so probably he wont need to do anything til november at earliest. also they have learnt not to meddle at year end so any taper will start next year not november or december but he could announce it near end of year.
HK Kevin 12:46:12 GMT - 08/06/2021
How would Powell decline to begin taper with 5.4% unemployment rate?
london red 12:33:35 GMT - 08/06/2021
v strong numbers mostly. lets see if bonds finally give up run to 1.0%. should be breaking 1.3% today. if doesnt then real questions why not.
Mtl JP 10:06:13 GMT - 08/06/2021
"risk" - in the uP mood
NFP consensus expectation: 850K , +/-5K
Player reaction to:
• sub 600K
• 650,000 and 750,000
• 900K +
• 1 million +
Jackson Hole: Aug. 26 to 28
next FOMC Sept. 21-22
Mtl JP 09:26:44 GMT - 08/06/2021
FactSet's of polled econs: estimates range from around 400,000 to as high as 1.5 million; on average, expect a seasonally adjusted gain of 862,500
previous NFP: 850K
Mtl JP 00:36:43 GMT - 08/06/2021
• The economy added 845,000 jobs in July, about the same as June’s job growth, according to economists polled by Dow Jones.
• Economists mostly expect strong growth for the next couple of months, but the delta variant of Covid has become a wild card for both the labor market and economy.
• Uncertainty shows up in the wide range of forecasts for July jobs — from 350,000 to 1.2 million.
if hits or beat 10y 1.30-1.40 tomorrow. but while they pay benefits nobody is looking for work any time soon. i expect 1m jobs maybe in october or november at latest. but until then much much lower prints.
NY JM 13:43:48 GMT - 08/05/2021
Red, and if it doesn’t miss of misses to the upside?
london red 13:22:58 GMT - 08/05/2021
nfp report is in government hands since yesterday. the nearer we get to nfp release, the more people know...
techs look good for yield bottom, but nfp tomorrow will likely miss so doesnt bode well for yields. think they take out 1.125 then go to 1.03 but that can mark a bottom. tomorrows close not necessarily intraday is what is important.
GVI Forex13:02:35 GMT - 08/05/2021
US yields creeping higher
Watch 10 year 1.20% as pivotal
Some Fx correlation but not as strong as yesterday
looks like "they" did not want to see <4370
(altho 4365ish LoD)
london red 14:14:17 GMT - 08/03/2021
4370 gsp spx. if no bounce there can roll over to 4285 this week
HK Kevin 13:25:54 GMT - 08/03/2021
What level will USD/JPY trade if 10-yr bond yield at 1.03?
london red 13:04:00 GMT - 08/03/2021
JP. 1.03 this week after nfp miss. today/tomorrow/thursday 1.125?
Mtl JP 12:47:26 GMT - 08/03/2021
Bias: between blaaah and slightly bull
Res: 1.19 and 50day
Mtl JP 12:42:02 GMT - 08/03/2021
can someone post 10's low yield this week
Mtl JP 12:28:56 GMT - 08/03/2021
10-yr 1.181, up from its ~1.15 low
DLRx 91.96 - laguishing
"risk" - ever so slight bias for uP
econ calendar has nothing of significance
the few players around probably biding time for NFP
Mtl JP 01:35:14 GMT - 08/03/2021
• Wall Street increasingly is talking about peak growth in both the economy and corporate earnings.
• Inflation is running at 30-year highs, while growth lately has been solid but a bit disappointing. Second-quarter GDP rose at a 6.5% annualized pace.
• Brimming investor optimism is flashing warning signs, according to Bank of America.
• However, a slowing economy doesn’t mean negative returns, and the current conditions may be pointing at nothing more than a cooling off.
Stocks finally woke up to a risk off tone, USD getting safe haven bid (jpy as well)
london red 16:08:22 GMT - 08/02/2021
JP if we see 1.03 tomorrow you buy that. id guess it will be a multi day low (as per trend) if we get the velocity down then up. think they need to do 0.96 to clear everything out so maybe not a complete low but it could be so you want to buy 1.03 and give it a chance to prove you wrong after the bounce.
Mtl JP 16:02:11 GMT - 08/02/2021
another one bites the dust
Mtl JP 16:00:13 GMT - 08/02/2021
10-yr 1.155 , LoD 1.153
red - 1.03: at first slowly and then suddenly and massively
Mtl JP 15:48:53 GMT - 08/02/2021
Section 11 of the Federal Reserve Act, as amended by section 1103 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010, requires that detailed operational results, including counterparty names, be released two years after each quarterly transaction period.
Mtl JP 15:10:36 GMT - 08/02/2021
it used to be that the bond market was the biggest market
is it still true , where are the vigilantes ?
Mtl JP 15:03:25 GMT - 08/02/2021
1.10-yr 1.187, LoD 1.182 sofar
red re trigger: ditto search me.
that new domestic / foreign REPO is intriguing
odds are low that this new element was a spontaneous brain flash as for most of their policies are "macro" - altho they are known for snap re/action in the market.
london red 14:11:12 GMT - 08/02/2021
maybe Kevin but i doubt while there is so much money looking for yield. until this stops outside of the stockmarket, it wont get to the stockmarket. folks are buyin g up everything. still. so it would need an event, something new. but even then, youd buy buy buy.
HK Kevin 13:55:57 GMT - 08/02/2021
london red 13:48 GMT , may be a 10-15% downside correction of the stock market.
london red 13:48:46 GMT - 08/02/2021
JP, chart to me says 1.03 but cant see how we get there data?war?new variant? not sure what will trigger but thats what the chart says particularly if under 1.12ish
Mtl JP 13:17:48 GMT - 08/02/2021
below last recent few lows
DLRx still holding 90.0 S atm
Mtl JP 07:08:18 GMT - 08/02/2021
new day • new week • new month
“You have a central bank that’s committed to price stability and has defined what price stability is and is strongly prepared to use its tools to keep us around 2% inflation,” he said. “All of these things suggest to me that an episode like what we saw in the 1970s … I don’t expect anything like that to happen.”
apparently to short bitcoin is through a cryptocurrency margin trading platform
Fed's Brainard: Can't wrap head around not having U.S. central bank digital currency
"The dollar is very dominant in international payments, and if you have the other major jurisdictions in the world with a digital currency, a CBDC (central bank digital currency)offering, and the U.S. doesn't have one, I just, I can't wrap my head around that," Brainard told the Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group. "That just doesn't sound like a sustainable future to me."
(beach time baby, beach time...off to the Hamptons)
Mtl JP 18:22:44 GMT - 07/30/2021
CB and market blissfully zzzs
see it differently ?
players heading out the door for holidays - should make for relatively thin uncommitted market - ahead of a modified, in-person program for this year’s Economic Policy Symposium, "Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy,"
just some days it is more effervescent than others
and always lurking, always ready to bubble up and burst thru the surface
Mtl JP 13:35:21 GMT - 07/30/2021
- he thinks financial markets 'are very much ready for a taper'
Mtl JP 13:30:36 GMT - 07/30/2021
sofar market zzzs
- wants to start tapering in fall, finish by end of first quarter
- sees inflation surge carrying over into 2022
Mtl JP 13:18:45 GMT - 07/30/2021
Bullard sees stronger GDP growth in second half of 2021 than the 6.4% growth rate in first six months - MarketWatch
Mtl JP 12:56:33 GMT - 07/30/2021
looking tired against 1.19-ish
S 1.1875 / 50
Mtl JP 12:48:32 GMT - 07/30/2021
09:00 - bullard w/ a yak
on sexual relations between the economy and monetary policy
Mtl JP 12:37:23 GMT - 07/30/2021
1.1890 - basically flat atm
Last day of the week/ month
dlr does not currently appear to have many enthusiast
london red 08:30:12 GMT - 07/30/2021
iron ore right now is looking great but there is no major supply problem there over next decade. with copper there is. listen to the anglo american cc or ceo interviews from yest. copper will be going to new highs.
HK Kevin 08:26:43 GMT - 07/30/2021
Thanks for your reply, red. Iron ore is the only sector I favour to retest recent high
london red 07:18:01 GMT - 07/30/2021
HK Kevin 14:24 GMT 07/29/2021
Hi Red, have u bought back clf. Up 8% today at $25.5
london red 14:05 GMT July 23, 2021
no didnt get back in. clearly exited to early in hindsight. my assumption was either fed or failure of infrastructure to pass would provide a quick buying op but neither happened. but now its made a new high thats the time to get out as it never follows thru. i expect to pick them up again in 19-22 area. today im looking at amzn 3250-3350.
Mtl JP 19:46:18 GMT - 07/29/2021
"Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are stuck in a so-called “death cross,” or technical pattern that suggests they may keep falling even lower from here.
That’s the view of Dimitri Delis, a senior econometric and macro strategist at Piper Sandler Cos. who is based in Chicago. He points to the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields’ 50-day moving averages, which have now both fallen below their 100-day moving averages." .../.
made higher high but 1.19 and + is elusive. Pop N and hold 1.19 is probably needed to call it a "reversal"
Bellow Sup 1.1850/40, 20dma
Mtl JP 16:32:16 GMT - 07/29/2021
Americans aren’t cutting back on spending — even with rising inflation
Biden to allow eviction ban to expire Saturday
HK Kevin 14:24:38 GMT - 07/29/2021
Hi Red, have u bought back clf. Up 8% today at $25.5
london red 14:05 GMT July 23, 2021
sold the clf trade earlier but will be back. looking to go into ford and dow, but not yet. sticking with mcd while above 239.
Mtl JP 13:08:49 GMT - 07/27/2021
puppy sitting exactly on s/t supp
risk not looking enthusiastic
and euro ... ahhhh the euro
looking unfriendly to attempts to probe sub 1.18
R 1.18 (now poof), 1.1830/50
Mtl JP 12:42:40 GMT - 07/27/2021
key words: too much money, nothing to buy , sucker born every day, ponzi, crypto
DOJ reportedly investigates crypto company Tether for ...
1 day ago The Justice Department is investigating possible bank fraud by executives of Tether Ltd., according to Bloomberg News.
Mtl JP 11:44:22 GMT - 07/27/2021
Is the FED gang going to ape China's Xi ?
it is not as if "they" do not have the power
so likely just a matter of judging the odds
The FED gang is meeting Tuesday and Wednesday
allegedly discussing its monetary policy stance - what they generally call "support of the economy". (min $80 bln here + min $40 bln there) and holding short-term interest rates at near-zero.
Odds are the gang is plotting the wording of their propaganda communication that will have the goal of making players think that they talking about it some more BUT are no-where near an imminent decision.
Anything else and they ll have version of current chinese price action dynamics. imho.
Mtl JP 07:53:33 GMT - 07/27/2021
anyone envy the +5% price-moves in chinese stocks ?
Mtl JP 07:46:17 GMT - 07/27/2021
thanks for that intelligence viies
london dumping risk has been a more than less regular profit bagger
Tallinn viies 07:41:06 GMT - 07/27/2021
Ldn guys do not have funds to keep market up. they do what masters over the ocean tell them to do.
seems small correction before NYC comes in and will buy market to new all time high again.
Mtl JP 07:35:16 GMT - 07/27/2021
london does not appear to like "risk"s prospects
my robot still likes 4363.50-ish trgt
Mtl JP 15:18:29 GMT - 07/26/2021
ahead of and into FOMC just discussing tapering buying of assets , IMHO , should see general player sentiment cooling of "risk" enthusiasm.
after that: a new day and new item to price
Mtl JP 14:19:23 GMT - 07/26/2021
alto puppy looks tired, 92.50 +/- few should see intial Sup
just as euro should see Res around 1.1820
Mtl JP 14:08:05 GMT - 07/26/2021
snp +4400 HoD 4407 (and 2x top from last week)
look at that , but no new record just yet
Mtl JP 12:58:27 GMT - 07/26/2021
early in NY if players focus on "risk" and FED
USD should be S upported
yet euro does not appear to have appetite for >1.18
S (or trgt) : 1.1760/50/00
current energy vectors appear (be they uP or Down) calm
Mtl JP 11:35:41 GMT - 07/26/2021
"About 165 S&P 500 companies are due to report in the biggest week of the season. Tech heavyweights like Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) will take the spotlight, with the five companies comprising more than a fifth of the total market cap of the S&P 500. The results should illustrate how large businesses are withstanding the pandemic and a recent uptick in inflation." - seekingalpha
Mtl JP 11:30:38 GMT - 07/26/2021
by "market" I mean bonds
IF bonds get bought
- -> yield (interest) goes down
IF interest goes down, typically but not always
- -> USD gets sold off and
-- -> "risk" (stocks) goes uP
Mtl JP 11:06:17 GMT - 07/26/2021
see how market digests
"Coronavirus tally: Global cases of COVID-19 top 194 million and Fauci says U.S.' headed in wrong direction' " - MarketWatch
Mtl JP 10:58:46 GMT - 07/26/2021
10-yr 1.246% - off some
after London selling snp to 4375-ish low
market mood says lets look at 4400+ again
Mtl JP 00:57:29 GMT - 07/26/2021
now that it hit +4400 last week,
4363.50-ish looks reasonable
Mtl JP 18:00:11 GMT - 07/25/2021
ECB 2% Goal Must Be 12-18 Months Away Before Hike, Villeroy Says
William Horobin, Fri, July 23, 2021
(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank’s new guidance on interest rates means it won’t consider increases unless its projections show inflation at the 2% target within 12 to 18 months, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday.
His comments are more precise than ECB President Christine Lagarde, who said on Thursday that policy makers want to see inflation at the “midpoint” of their forecast horizon. That horizon is between two and three years -- officials are currently projecting price growth through to the end of 2023.
“To consider raising rates, we must have meeting 2% within close sight. That means to the naked eye rather than long-sighted,” Villeroy said on BFM Business radio. “I’ll be very concrete: The projection horizon is 2 to 3 years so that means in practice 12 to 18 months.” .../.. blabla blaaahh
Mtl JP 16:49:36 GMT - 07/25/2021
puppy is looking like recent 93.19High is it for a while.
since things FX are relative,
IF dlr should go down -> euro uP
Mtl JP 16:31:52 GMT - 07/25/2021
Bloomberg Sat, July 24, 2021
Fed Officials to Meet, GDP Data Coming Globally: Eco Week Ahead
Federal Reserve officials aren’t expected to signal a reduction in support for the U.S. economy when they meet this week, but will debate how to scale back massive bond purchases when the time comes. .../.. blabla blaahh
Mtl JP 16:31:16 GMT - 07/25/2021
re PBS' The Power of the Fed
More like a propaganda pre-emptive blame-deflecting fluff piece: wallstreet bad, FED good ahead of SHTF coming down the pipe.
"Yellen told bipartisan leaders of the House and Senate that she will have to take “extraordinary measures”
which won't include kneeling at the feet of Nancy Pelosi, like my erstwhle predicessor, Hank 'shorts killer' Paulson. That bit of theater is no longer nesessary.
Today's RevRepo $877billion --- and nobody cares. LOL
Mtl JP 18:37:19 GMT - 07/23/2021
cry me a river
"Yellen on Friday turned up the pressure on Congress to tackle the debt limit, saying the pandemic has scrambled accounting tricks the government has used in the past to avoid default on its debt.
A 2019 agreement to suspend the debt limit expires on Aug. 1. and Yellen told bipartisan leaders of the House and Senate that she will have to take “extraordinary measures” to prevent a default." .../..
hedge funds have been selling their long euro positions from last FOMC meeting. this selling has been met by central banks and national wealth funds who are reducing their extra dollar longs from extraordinary winnings from US stock markets.
so that is why so tight range.
If I were central bank I would take off the euro bid for a while. until FOMC meeting next week. if hedge funds wants to get rid their long then central could buy euro later next week below 200 points lower at least.
Mtl JP 15:29:25 GMT - 07/23/2021
"American Express Stock Is Jumping Because Earnings Show Consumers Keep Spending" - Barron's
on the other hand ...
"The majority of U.S. parents are worried about their kids’ financial future"
what is the solution to the worry - don't propagate ?
Mtl JP 15:21:20 GMT - 07/23/2021
debt / stupid things ...
Biden administration is seeking to keep more borrowers in their homes by extending the length of mortgages and lock in lower monthly payments.
the national foreclosure ban is set to expire July 31.
The relief is meant for borrowers preparing to exit forbearance programs but who can’t resume their normal mortgage payments because they earn less now than before the pandemic.
Mtl JP 15:09:11 GMT - 07/23/2021
euro gets the "dog trade" award of the week
Mtl JP 15:04:54 GMT - 07/23/2021
snp at all-time high
Mtl JP 14:45:50 GMT - 07/23/2021
1.17545 recent low
and sofar 2x bottom
maybe on the 3rd try it crack
Mtl JP 14:36:32 GMT - 07/23/2021
"U.S. economy cools a bit after rocketing higher in second quarter, IHS Markit PMI data show"
"Is there a way to avoid doing stupid things in your old age?"
"Biden to introduce new aid for mortgage borrowers at risk of foreclosure"
joe mitigating / delaying opp to buy property on the cheap(er)
Mtl JP 14:12:22 GMT - 07/23/2021
re FED next week
DLRx 92.96 atm
IF the puppy can close th week on the uP
posi-perception about growth and FED's policy percolate
ie that all is well
london red 14:05:13 GMT - 07/23/2021
sold the clf trade earlier but will be back. looking to go into ford and dow, but not yet. sticking with mcd while above 239.
Mtl JP 13:56:07 GMT - 07/23/2021
"I didn't feel comfortable taking a commitment for such a long period."
FRANKFURT, July 23 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Friday he was uncomfortable with the ECB's new guidance, which financial markets have taken as a commitment not to raise interest rates for "five or six years". .../..
Mtl JP 13:11:40 GMT - 07/23/2021
USD uP some; FED next week
euro looks like it wants down BUT ... still inside range
"risk" appears to have slight bid
Mtl JP 18:27:24 GMT - 07/22/2021
BOUNCING OFF ~1.1755
odds are now for stop hunt to 1.18ish
london red 13:10:54 GMT - 07/22/2021
ft100 sup by 6950/60
snp if goes much below 4340 then could test 4300/4280.
all ops to buy if seen.
Mtl JP 12:31:40 GMT - 07/22/2021
"I m a believer"
like the 0.01 that "kills 99.9%" does not
"The vast majority of the experts, including Wall Street, are suggesting that it's highly unlikely that it's going to be long-term inflation that's going to get out of hand. There will be near-term inflation, because everything is now trying to be picked back up." - biden
sans commentaire, but admittedly I am pleased
euro just keeps on being lame dog to trade
maybe just shooting it would give it a bit jolt
london red 14:06:19 GMT - 07/21/2021
the 10 kissed its 200dma and a slight pullback off it for now. first chance if someone wants to buy bonds. lets see if anyone comes in here. but if they break 1.28 it should move to 1.33 same day given recent vol.
Mtl JP 12:54:07 GMT - 07/21/2021
ECB in two-day policy session. odds are zero of "surprise"
Technically puppy is bearish
S 1.1750, 10/00
R 1.1775/80/00/ 1.1850
interesting 50 / 200day phenomenon developing on daily
london red 12:29:44 GMT - 07/21/2021
snp sups by 4275 4290. res by 4375. the 4275 needs to hold or rally over. the 10 res by 1.28 and 1.33. while below those can still go down.
Mtl JP 12:29:39 GMT - 07/21/2021
10-yr 1.234% - slightly uP off low
DLRx 93.04 - slightly off high
EURO 1.1769 - confused
Key , again, looks like to correctly chose the one driving price-moving energy vector.
Mtl JP 12:22:47 GMT - 07/21/2021
"risk"'s mood heading into NY
Mtl JP 01:27:44 GMT - 07/21/2021
DON’T ACT LIKE A HUMAN. DON’T TALK TO YOUR FRIENDS, EVEN WHEN MASKED. DON’T BE FRIENDLY. THIS IS NOT THE TIME. - .vid
that "Lot of Very Young People’ Are Going to Buy the Dip in Stocks" did not dis-appoint: us stocks ended day uP ~1.5/6
lets see how asia - Nikkei 27710 - trades next
london red 19:30:31 GMT - 07/20/2021
clf fills gaps to just under 20 bucks where there appears to be res on chart. however with results due this week, i doubt there is much pullback. after results who knows but these guys are at 2x and throwing off so much cash they dont know what to do with it. whats not to like cept for fact the meme censored0s got hold of it a few times and risk capsizing the boat post results. but even so, u collect them up with both hands
Mtl JP 16:04:59 GMT - 07/20/2021
piece of work this puppy
just as players collective watches the same nega-bias tech indicators
puppy plays a tease n jerk game
london red 16:03:49 GMT - 07/20/2021
xpo has used second week of july to build up for a nice move higher. probably means new highs.
london red 15:12:57 GMT - 07/20/2021
spx almost filled gap to 4322. hourly chart. if they chose to pullback, maybe 4280-88. but most likely pullback will be shallow and will move higher still.
london red 15:11:19 GMT - 07/20/2021
both statements may be right as they are not mutually exclusive, they can coexist together.
Mtl JP 14:38:38 GMT - 07/20/2021
jeffries vs gottlieb
chose your poison:
"Delta variant will be the ‘most serious virus’ the unvaccinated ever get, says ex-FDA head Gottlieb"
Dr. Scott Gottlieb urges social media platforms to curb Covid vaccine misinformation - told CNBC on Monday
Mtl JP 14:23:08 GMT - 07/20/2021
red I favor round numbers
50 (green priceline); and 00
london red 14:13:43 GMT - 07/20/2021
snp 4320/22. lets see what happens there. if doesnt pull back there then theres too much money...and u know the rest
Mtl JP 13:52:39 GMT - 07/20/2021
red 13:34 u r already "non-wrong" (i.e right) *-^
london red 13:52:22 GMT - 07/20/2021
fwiw jefferies has a note out saying delta less lethal. probably shouldnt be news that as viruses mutate they tend to get less deadly but in spoon fed society maybe needs to be said.
Mtl JP 13:37:42 GMT - 07/20/2021
GBP getting somewhat stretched under its 200day
odds of speed of further down diminishing on N.I. priced in
if not outright screetch n bounce
london red 13:34:56 GMT - 07/20/2021
they are selling gbp due to covid policy. uk has opened up fully depsite rising cases. selling gbp is a bet that deaths go up masively and they lockdown again. i think that bet will be wrong.
Mtl JP 13:25:34 GMT - 07/20/2021
Puppy looking ready to make lunch of 1.2780 Res
GVI Forex13:25:34 GMT - 07/20/2021
In this regard, GBP is softer after a headline that the UK is set to make a statement on the N Ireland protocol tomorrow. Note this on your blotter..
Mtl JP 13:09:43 GMT - 07/20/2021
ECB Th, PMI Friday
75/65 s/t Supp; 1.1710/00 below that
Res around 1.1825/50 (20day)
london red 12:55:39 GMT - 07/20/2021
regardless of why the 10 looks like it cannot stop til 1.0275 channel with bigger support by 0.96-0.99
Mtl JP 12:55:04 GMT - 07/20/2021
heading for 1% ....
as janet will peddle off 20 billion later today ?
london red 10:48:41 GMT - 07/20/2021
tiktok and instagram should not be used in the same breath as investment. they will deserve everything that will sooner or later come their way.
haifa ac 09:24:04 GMT - 07/20/2021
"A Lot of Very Young People’ "
I hear about a group of four years old who formed an investment group. They use tick tok and Instagram,
They decided to retire at 27.
Mtl JP 09:12:31 GMT - 07/20/2021
published around 1600hrs yesty
‘A Lot of Very Young People’ Are Going to Buy the Dip in Stocks
Mtl JP 07:06:46 GMT - 07/20/2021
"Dog-Walking App Booms as Workers Return to the Office and Travel"
Mtl JP 21:03:20 GMT - 07/19/2021
4261 as I type
red still a few hours to midnite nyt and
only 40 points to 4300
"they" may have senior crew on duty this eve
I note that we have not yet seen "babson break" (-3 or >)
so the natives should not be too freak-outy
london red 20:37:48 GMT - 07/19/2021
JP, it goes like this. if they can give us one or two more down days like today, then you will get two months of pretty much uninterrupted gains. quick down leads invariably to slow run higher. chop leads to more chop.
Mtl JP 20:10:21 GMT - 07/19/2021
S&P 500 closes 1.6% lower;
Nasdaq Composite falls 1.1%;
Dow down 2.1%
headline will trump
Mtl JP 20:06:48 GMT - 07/19/2021
be interesting to case asia's reaction
to NY's last ~30 minutes
and then London's later
Mtl JP 20:02:16 GMT - 07/19/2021
crazed dogs, rippin' tearin' n' not even chewing
Mtl JP 19:58:00 GMT - 07/19/2021
no analysis red, just rapider than rapid scalping
dog eat dog frenzy
Mtl JP 19:55:10 GMT - 07/19/2021
snp 4244 ,
next is 4246 ahead of 4250
london red 19:47:28 GMT - 07/19/2021
snp looking heavy. but it can just go up anyway, so thats no analysis. would be cleaner to see 4160/4140 tomorrow and then bounce. but i guess there can be those more desperate to put their money to work and rule that out.
"to the immortal words of George Orwell that "War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength", we can now add that inflation is deflation."
Mtl JP 19:15:34 GMT - 07/19/2021
right on R line
puppy probably will need N of 4250
to make fun of players
Mtl JP 18:51:41 GMT - 07/19/2021
so now 10-yr is giving up 1.196% and I am supposed to thing snp is going to bounce off its 3x testing of 4225 LoD
Mtl JP 18:45:11 GMT - 07/19/2021
snp 4225 = 3x return to test
I dont have a bead w/ppt
so 50/50 odds from me
Mtl JP 18:02:03 GMT - 07/19/2021
swimming near LoD
there is one woman I - we - know is thrilled w/ how little she is paying
Mtl JP 17:39:33 GMT - 07/19/2021
makes me chuckle .... oasis of relative stability
as profits being made elsewhere
london red 17:08:36 GMT - 07/19/2021
big tech has been rolling lower again over the last hour. this likely will surpress the main indices but you will see other sector stocks either staying flat or gently moving off lows. eg fedex now up. apple under 141.75 will open up levels close to 137.
london red 15:12:01 GMT - 07/19/2021
initial selling in us over. they may now look to 4274-89 res. if that caps then can move to lows late session. but if breached then they can close by 4320 today. but in that case pullback would be over. if they can stay under 4274 then still chance to see lower levels later in week.
london red 14:26:44 GMT - 07/19/2021
aapl touched touched first sup at 141.75. could bounce here but not low enough to buy and hold. that might be 137 or worst case 124-130.
london red 14:22:17 GMT - 07/19/2021
spx 50dma touchdown
london red 14:12:12 GMT - 07/19/2021
ft100 trying to close below may low of 6821. if does so then like 6720 tomorrow. that is first op to put in a base off channel sup. the 200dma will be some 50 points lower.
london red 13:56:07 GMT - 07/19/2021
the 10 looks like 1.1850 before respite
GVI Forex13:55:18 GMT - 07/19/2021
UK yields down sharply as well, narrowing vs bunds
london red 13:49:22 GMT - 07/19/2021
looking to buy at f near 12 and cof near 140.
london red 13:45:33 GMT - 07/19/2021
tapped into some mcd and cleveland cliffs here. mds chart looks constructive and stock is traditionally defensive. and aside from that you cannot buy a mcd site for $hit, they are selling their family members rather than parting with drive thru mcd or even kcf or anything of that ilk. while cleveland is at 100dma which halted 3 past declines. the stock has not closed below 100dma since 6 bucks. further erosion means 200dma and 16 bucks which would be where id add.
london red 13:34:23 GMT - 07/19/2021
amzn fills gap. but i would wait. not down enough to jump in for anything more than a few minutes
GVI Forex13:32:28 GMT - 07/19/2021
No news to trigger the dollar (metals as well) turnaround (as I have noted to subscribers, beware of fading straight line moves as seen on AT charts). Only thing I have seen besides risk off is narrowing yields with US yields narrowing vs bunds for example). EURUSD also seeing demand from firmer EURGBP.
here is 4276 on s&p. nxt sup is 4238 which is 50dma where mkt correction has stopped the last 4 times. but even if sup doesnt hold, at v min 4276 should print in cash mkt once mkt opens. more likely there will be some backfill in attempt to close gap abv.
jkt abel 11:36:02 GMT - 07/19/2021
yeah, endless covid mutations and more money to the vaccine producers will mean print more and more and more
london red 11:16:50 GMT - 07/19/2021
he said he wanted to buy V on a pullback. what is a pullback say V stockholders. V and MA two of about 10 stocks you buy and leave certificates somewhere where you will never go eg your mother in laws.
but you can dream 215-230 would be nice. as would cap one at 140.
Mtl JP 10:59:16 GMT - 07/19/2021
abel 10:28 dlr uP = print more moRE ?
Mtl JP 10:54:59 GMT - 07/19/2021
market retreat of 3% (in one day) - "Babson Break" - was just a warning
Mtl JP 10:47:30 GMT - 07/19/2021
red I am eyeballing outfits w/brand recognition, deep market penetration, pricing power and (hopefully) secure income stream: Visa, utilities, P&Gs of the world
london red 10:41:53 GMT - 07/19/2021
JP, its still early even for premkt but im not seeing too many bargains in big tech yet, although some of the other sectors are beginning to look ok. certainly in the uk i am ready to begin picking up this week across the board. but back to us, i was hoping to buy back appple microsoft and amazon than i recently took off but only the later is making much downside headway. msft would be nice to pick up 260 and lower, aapl 137 (141 maybe if mkt doesnt fall much) and amazon 3200/3300 area. these would be trades that id add to on further falls, but would also expect to close out on rebounds towards or at new highs.
london red 10:37:24 GMT - 07/19/2021
if stock fallout continues euro could visit the 38.2 by 11692 and usdpln 4.0. theres a double top on the euro chart which would target 1.11 but i think you need to see a return to pre vaccine panic to see those levels. the delta is infectious but few are dying, certainly in the uk. the 50% comes in v close to a prev high of 11496. maybe you could get there is stocks sell off sharply to 4k but realistically you guess it stops not far under 1.17. however the trend is your friend and it they dont reverse once down there, you could start to see the double top begin to partial play out. its not my base case though. as i say too much money in system and you suspect that jackson hole will be used to underline free money rather than begin taking it away given the delta spread.
Mtl JP 10:35:46 GMT - 07/19/2021
DJ looking pukey-sick atm, if players collective turns late friday tilt going into panic exit certain "bargains" would appear. The trap though would be to BTFD of first puke-out.
jkt abel 10:31:56 GMT - 07/19/2021
just need to make a weekly closing above 93.50 for DX, then we may get lucky and hit the jackpot
jkt abel 10:28:42 GMT - 07/19/2021
JP, looks like usd will make big run to the upside now
Mtl JP 10:27:58 GMT - 07/19/2021
us 10-yr: 1.255%
something s going on
london red 08:26:59 GMT - 07/19/2021
i think 4275 will provide a bounce. you cant know for sure until its turned but that could be as low as it goes. if not then 4165. it would require something new ie. policy change, significant us restrictions to get more. if we saw levels just above 4k that would be around 10%. i cant see any more realistically as there is just too much money. you still cant buy anything off grid with a yield for anywehre near reasonable money.
Mtl JP 08:06:12 GMT - 07/19/2021
calling crystal ball
Mtl JP 05:32:16 GMT - 07/19/2021
well ... that much for price-reaction to +400,000 barrles
there is a lesson in there somewhere
Mtl JP 21:06:50 GMT - 07/18/2021
• Central bankers in Russia, South Africa, Indonesia also meet
• Weekly take on events in the world economy and their fallout
European Central Bank officials are poised to reveal just how their new monetary strategy, unveiled with fanfare earlier this month, will actually make a difference to investors.
At their decision on Thursday, policy makers will tweak their stance to reflect changes ranging from a slightly higher inflation goal of 2% to an explicit allowance that they might overshoot it for a while. ECB President Christine Lagarde has already primed financial markets, saying they should prepare for new guidance on stimulus “given the persistence that we need to demonstrate to deliver on our commitment.” .../..
It appears that
"OPEC+ agrees to boost oil production, ending standoff between Saudi Arabia and U.A.E." - MarketWatch
My last Fr prices were:
Mtl JP 20:36:26 GMT - 07/16/2021
Expecting 1.2600/1.2650 to offer Res
to the current rally.
C u next week
Mtl JP 18:45:58 GMT - 07/16/2021
"As inflation surges, BlackRock’s iShares investment strategy pro says clients ‘confounded by the move in interest rates’ "
is that not what jerome's gang wants : confuse them with b/s?
here we go 4327 lets how deep
london red 18:34:30 GMT - 07/16/2021
whole lotta room down to 4286 channel, which next week will match july 8 and 9 lows of 4289. if they drop quick, thats where you buy. if its a slow drift, it may need to do a bit more work on downside. but we'll see.
Mtl JP 18:06:49 GMT - 07/16/2021
lots of space under 4332 snp
london red 17:35:50 GMT - 07/16/2021
amazon close to testing prev highs by 3550. some folks will buy that or the gap by 3510 with a stop under 3400. but you want to wait for that to get gunned and buy 3200/3300
london red 17:33:55 GMT - 07/16/2021
theyll run the bitch down into the close. too many complacent bulls around. big tech is always the last to go but once it goes it drags the mkt down. at that point, cos all the other $hit has already moved lower, its the bottom.
Mtl JP 17:07:07 GMT - 07/16/2021
IMO snp will need to clear the red price-line in order to nix the current nega-sentiment
Mtl JP 16:11:57 GMT - 07/16/2021
several (4) month of 4% (call it "rapid") inflation:
(100+4)+4+4+4 = $116.98
ffwrd to "medium" term (between 1 - 3yrs) and "back toward normal levels" (assuming 2%) ...
so brutally speaking something that costs $100 today would be expected to c0st >$120-125+ say by 2022-end
ya think - odds? - biden is going to release jerome and install janet ?
Mtl JP 15:45:26 GMT - 07/16/2021
she thinks. I, too, think.
...“We will have several more months of rapid inflation,” Yellen told Sara Eisen during a “Closing Bell” interview. “So I’m not saying that this is a one-month phenomenon. But I think over the medium term, we’ll see inflation decline back toward normal levels. But, of course, we have to keep a careful eye on it.” ... - Jeff Cox 16/07/2021
london red 15:24:19 GMT - 07/16/2021
4340 is the key for today. if they accelerate lower it could get to 4275 next week. thats quite close to where the 50dma will be then. beyoned that there the last low prior at 4165 close to where the 100dma will be end of next week. not sure can go much lower. too much money looking for a return.
Mtl JP 15:17:36 GMT - 07/16/2021
the runs up take long time (13hrs)
the whack downs take less time (3hrs)
almost 80/20 rule
HK Kevin 15:10:05 GMT - 07/16/2021
For day trade, my chart reading is buy against yesterday's low, buy 4335 and s/l 4330
Mtl JP 15:04:53 GMT - 07/16/2021
rolling over ... tired ... or maybe just an early summer cyclical turn down
chart showing only some "what if" (things go to h3ll in handbasket) price levels
london red 14:29:26 GMT - 07/16/2021
ft100 on verge of rolling over
Mtl JP 12:59:02 GMT - 07/16/2021
dreadful priceaction, slightly bearish
1.1820 & 50 Res
1.1770/50 Sup; below low 1.17 trgt
Mtl JP 10:16:40 GMT - 07/16/2021
(AP) "California lawmakers on Thursday approved the first state-funded guaranteed income plan in the U.S., providing $35 million for monthly cash payments to qualifying pregnant people and young adults who recently left foster care with no restrictions on how they spend it."
Mtl JP 10:13:02 GMT - 07/16/2021
some data on NY calendar w/potential for some price-reaction from players
williams yak on deck
Mtl JP 22:34:28 GMT - 07/15/2021
LIVE: Powell says that current inflation "is not moderately above 2% by any stretch. This is well above 2%. And it's also not tied to the things that inflation is usually tied to which is a tight labor market, a tight economy, that kind of thing"
10-yr 1.30 (day range: 1.295 - 1.351)
“This is a shock going through the system associated with reopening of the economy, and it has driven inflation well above 2%. And of course we’re not comfortable with that,” Powell
So with bond yielding 1.3 going forward my Qtn is:
buy or sell the bond ?
Mtl JP 18:50:42 GMT - 07/15/2021
evans , like a good company boy
Fed's Evans says need more progress on employment before taper
- “Given the more recent months of lower employment growth than I was expecting, I would say that there are still things to assess in terms of substantial further progress that needs to be met for us to make adjustments in our monetary policy stance,”
- It will take “more than a couple of months” to sort out timing on when tapering will be appropriate - By Reuters Staff
Fed's Evans: taper bar could be met later this year - rtrs
- the bar for tapering asset purchases could be met "later this year."
- promised to continue to buy Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at its current pace of $120 billion a month until there is "substantial further progress" toward the Fed's goals of 2% inflation and full employment.
- still believes a first rate hike could be appropriate in early 2024
Inflation is going to ease. Just be patient, Chicago Fed’s Evans says - marketwatch
- thinks a surge in U.S. inflation this year will largely fade away by 2022
- compagnies are going about in “clever” ways to limit the long-term increase in their labor costs. Onetime bonuses have been particularly common
- “I am comfortable with where we are going and markets seem comfortable too,”
Mtl JP 12:55:24 GMT - 07/15/2021
bunch of data this morning largely ignored
powell yaks again at 09:30. players may react to something that jerome may utter during the Qtn period that would qualify "surprise" (unlikely imo)
11:00 - evans yaks on the economy
unlikely to contradict jerome
with 10-yr yield at 1.326 and DLRx 92.52ish I am looking for dlr to pull down some
I am only slightly biased down
Mtl JP 11:50:46 GMT - 07/15/2021
..."we are now in the early stages of a third wave. .. . .. The Delta variant is now in more than 111 countries and we expect it to soon be the dominant COVID-19 strain circulating worldwide, if it isn’t already. " ...
looks like a concensus of perception of what powell said
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the economy is “a ways off” from where it needs to be for the central bank to change policy.
• “Conditions in the labor market have continued to improve, but there is still a long way to go,” he said, adding that inflation has “increased notably” due mostly to temporary factors.
Powell plays down direct link of Fed’s purchases of mortgage bonds and the spike in home prices
- Fed’s bond buying was not to blame and was only “a factor among factors.” Both supply and demand reasons were pushing home prices up
- “Mortgage backed security purchases really work a lot like Treasury purchases. They are not especially important in what is happening with housing prices,”
- the good news” on higher home prices is that “this is not driven by the kind of reckless, irresponsible lending that led to the housing bubble that led to the last financial crisis. Those kinds of things are not happening at least so far.” he said.
Mtl JP 17:11:57 GMT - 07/14/2021
currently I am considering the lower of the two red lines as Res
Mtl JP 16:29:35 GMT - 07/14/2021
stocks not crazy enthusistic about powell's prognostications
Mtl JP 16:12:19 GMT - 07/14/2021
transitory inflation according to powell
“will likely remain elevated in coming months" before “moderating."
about the economy: on track “to post its fastest rate of increase in decades.”
re hiring: “robust" but “is still a long way to go,”
Mtl JP 15:29:16 GMT - 07/14/2021
the I know what is good for you globalists are out to get you
...“We’re not just faced with an industrial revolution, we’re also faced with an existential threat which is the climate crisis,” European Commission executive vice president and climate chief Frans Timmermans said a news briefing. “So you don’t have the luxury to say let’s very smoothly develop toward this change. We have to do it quite radically.” ...
Powell as a real cheerleader will talk the stock market higher otherwise granny could fire him.
Mtl JP 13:28:13 GMT - 07/14/2021
Sup 1.1770, 40, 20, 00
Grand trend: still down
Mtl JP 12:48:17 GMT - 07/14/2021
I am expecting
that players are expecting powell to keep to his general meme that
current price-inflation is transitory and that tapering the minimum 80 and minimum 40 monthly billions is far far away
little more down for the usd
unless powel slips
Mtl JP 12:36:49 GMT - 07/14/2021
puppy rushing tackle old Support
break down --> 1.23x
Mtl JP 12:22:30 GMT - 07/14/2021
10am - BoC
12am - powell
Mtl JP 00:26:11 GMT - 07/14/2021
how did she ever make it to Venice: sailboat ?
how will she make it back: row / swim ?
..."U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signaled she’ll prod multilateral development banks to rein in their lending for fossil fuels, part of a global effort to make the financial system greener.
Yellen said she will convene the heads of such institutions “to articulate our expectations that the MDBs align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement and net-zero goals as urgently as possible,” according to the text of a speech she was set to deliver at an international climate conference in Venice, Italy." .../..
globalists create new profit opportunities - currently brent at $76.30-ish, transocean at $4.26
might be a hint on what jerome is going to utilize to re/explain their "subtle" difference why their pursuit of "maximum" employement is better than persuit of "full" employment (one of the 2 alleged mandates)
Mtl JP 13:21:16 GMT - 07/13/2021
looks like 10-yr has seen its HoD yield
as "risk" trying to make a come back up
Mtl JP 12:39:56 GMT - 07/13/2021
some parts of ecomy's players like the prospect of (price) inflation no doubt , as pricing power is highly desired
london red 12:37:12 GMT - 07/13/2021
rotation v. 134589 says ft100
Mtl JP 12:36:21 GMT - 07/13/2021
initial stocks reaction is to not like prospect of higher cost of money
HK Kevin 12:32:25 GMT - 07/13/2021
US annual CPI inflation jumps to 5.4% in June vs. 4.9% expected
Mtl JP 12:29:29 GMT - 07/13/2021
just ahead of CPI, I dont care about the long details
algos likely react to headline
Mtl JP 09:42:07 GMT - 07/13/2021
US 10-yr 1.369%
CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern
"Economists polled by FactSet anticipate a 4.9% increase in overall CPI for June from a year earlier and a 0.5% increase from a month earlier. That’s down a touch from the 5% and 0.6% respective increases reported in May.
Excluding food and energy, economists see a 4% year-over-year rise and a 0.4% month-over-month gain in consumer prices. The so-called core numbers rose at 3.8% and 0.7% clips, respectively, during May."
Of more importance than correctly anticipating the CPI is to correctly anticipate player reaction (by way of attitude change toward the 10-yr, for exmpl)
Mtl JP 09:11:48 GMT - 07/13/2021
watson to sherlock:
June Inflation Figures Are Coming Later This Morning. Here's What to Watch. Barron's
European stocks tread water after French and German data release, as eyes turn to key U.S. inflation measure MarketWatch
good. but not good nuff to not get caught and punished:
“Motivated by greed, this defendant attempted to use digital advances to hide his old-fashioned fraud,” said Tessa Gorman, the acting U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Washington state “At all phases — from accessing the dark web, to loading stolen data onto digital wallets, to acquiring prepaid anonymous phones, to adopting aliases, to laundering money through anonymous cryptocurrency accounts — his operation was sophisticated and difficult to detect. But ultimately law enforcement stopped him in his tracks.”
now if only law enforcement would go after ____ ...
Mtl JP 00:33:29 GMT - 07/13/2021
re powel's ... "until �substantial further progress� is made" ...
Jon Hilsenrath and Sarah Chaney Cambon WSJ ask:
"Millions of Americans say they can’t find a job. Millions of employers say they can’t find workers. A reason for this mismatch is that people are leaving cities or industries where businesses need them most."
SPX 4383.63 (-20% = __)
needs some reliable indicator:
As some of the pundit quotes Jeff included, powell's delivery is not really for congress rather cypher message communication to players: ..."does not expect, that Powell will provide some clear path to the exit from the current level of policy support."
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to Congress this week in an update on monetary policy.
• Part of his task will be selling the Fed’s still-easy policies in the wake of a strong economy and surging inflation.
• Powell has vowed that the current stance will remain intact until “substantial further progress” is made towards the Fed’s employment and inflation goals.
10-yr 1.366%, DLRx 92.215
• Inflation expectations surge, hitting new high for New York Fed survey
• ‘Inflation is the silent killer,’ as many retirees are feeling the sting
• Fed Chair Powell charged with convincing Congress this week that easy policy is still needed
• Homebuyers are finally catching a break as new listings rise and mortgage rates drop
Mtl JP 20:18:01 GMT - 07/12/2021
"Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite post another trifecta of record closes Monday"
34996,18: "Dow narrowly msses first finish above 35,000"
Mtl JP 13:26:01 GMT - 07/12/2021
I am assuming market trades around the 10-yr's yield
For USD to materially pop uP yield will have to rise. Currently puppy looks like it has topped out, looking at last week's priceaction.
IF USD pops uP, it ll do it relatively to the Euro.
CPI tomorrow, powell on Wed & Th
EURO - slightly bearish.
Sup 1.1825ish, 1.18
Mtl JP 22:36:31 GMT - 07/11/2021
slightly off its 1.1880 high
I maintain a down bias, beyond a possible stop-hunt / cantankerous probe of 1.19 I see no sustaining energy for higher
then on cue - Yellen (she did not take a sailboat):
"We are very concerned about the Delta variant and other variants that could emerge and threaten recovery," she told reporters following a G20 meeting in Venice, Italy, on Sunday, according to Agence France-Presse.
"S&P 500 Perfect Earnings Record Is on the Line With Peak Growth"
"Biggest Bond Rally in a Year Stalls With Short Wagers Washed Out"
(help 200day Sup)
"Wall Street’s Math Whizzes Are Racing to Wire Up the Bond Market"
Mtl JP 07:16:02 GMT - 07/10/2021
greed still alive and apparently doing well
"Crypto Scammers Rip Off Billions as Pump-and-Dump Schemes Go Digital Billions are getting pilfered annually through a variety of cryptocurrency scams. The way things are going, this will only get worse." bbrg
parasites, too, apparently having a good year (while they can)
"Real Estate Agents Target Record $100 Billion as Home Sales Boom" bbrg
Mtl JP 18:10:35 GMT - 07/09/2021
hunter and huntee
dog eat dog
Mtl JP 17:53:05 GMT - 07/09/2021
June CPI print (likely show cooling)
a deluge of Fedyakkers
Powell on Th - baffle Congress w/blsht
Mtl JP 17:34:08 GMT - 07/09/2021
sooo ... what numbers would you like sir, madame ?
- Inflation. Consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12-month change in the PCE price index, moved up from 1.2 percent at the end of last year to 3.9 percent in May. The 12-month measure of inflation that excludes food and energy items (so-called core inflation) was 3.4 percent in May, up from 1.4 percent at the end of last year. Some of the strength in recent 12-month inflation readings reflects the comparison of current prices with prices that sank at the onset of the pandemic as households curtailed spending—a transitory result of “base effects.” More lasting but likely still temporary upward pressure on inflation has come from prices for goods experiencing supply chain bottlenecks, such as motor vehicles and appliances. .. . .. are in a range that is broadly consistent with the FOMC’s longer-run inflation objective."
once burnt twice shy
looking at SnP -- puppy tried - apparently tentatively - to pop N of 4315
but at now 4306 is awful close to 4300 and then 4280 which was prev day low
Mtl JP 20:20:29 GMT - 07/08/2021
DAY RANGE: 1.246 - 1.323
Mtl JP 20:06:56 GMT - 07/08/2021
for the record
Nasdaq Composite ends down 0.7%
S&P 500 finishes 0.9% lower
Dow sheds 263 points, ends off 0.8%
Mtl JP 17:40:07 GMT - 07/08/2021
hear her scream
"Elizabeth Warren warns crypto ‘scams continue to surge’ on exchanges, calls for SEC regulation"
london red 15:50:30 GMT - 07/08/2021
JP, in uk most infections now are yound and or unvaccinated. so extrapolate that...delta will effect those not vaccinated. so emerging market. if you take usd as vaccination trade, then short em currencies where not vaccinated in large numbers.
Mtl JP 15:23:25 GMT - 07/08/2021
IF the delta variant goes wildfire globally, that should consequate in non-negligible global risk to global overall econ growth.
which raises the Qtn of how to position for profit on the theme.
I am thinking long DLR; views welcome, tia
london red 15:18:26 GMT - 07/08/2021
uk has 30k a day infected, yet less than 40 dead. go back a year ago and when there were 30k infected it was 700 dead a day. what changed? vaccine came in. so delta may not be a non event as a few will still die, but it will not lead to fresh lockdowns where the vaccine is prevalent. fwiw uk has about 80% of adults vaccinated at least once and 65% twice.
Mtl JP 15:14:06 GMT - 07/08/2021
"Delta Variant Is The Dominant U.S. Covid-19 Strain "
how convenient ...
and so "there is more to do"
... it never ends
Mtl JP 15:08:12 GMT - 07/08/2021
out earlier so just for the record:
"Initial Jobless Claims Tick Up, but the Layoff Trendline Still Points Down"
london red 13:30:35 GMT - 07/08/2021
f 13.90. fills gap
Mtl JP 12:52:07 GMT - 07/08/2021
current rally reflects stress in market inside still overall nega-trend
Res here at 1.1850, then 1.1880 and 1.19
Mtl JP 11:15:15 GMT - 07/08/2021
"European Central Bank sets its inflation target at 2% in new policy review
... The ECB currently works to achieve an inflation level of “below, but close to, 2%.” Going forward, the official inflation goal will become 2% with possible overshoots allowed." ...
Mtl JP 11:07:03 GMT - 07/08/2021
FED's "modestly compensated" agent:
"BlackRock: Neutral on U.S. stocks, likes cyclicals, Europe and Japan markets - CNBC
HK Kevin 09:37:21 GMT - 07/08/2021
london red 09:13 GMT, agree today's close is crucial. I wonder this wave of falling bond yield is due to capital from developing countries seeking for safe heaven, fueled by FOMC minutes yesterday. IMVHO, US continues to dictate the world with higher US dlr, lower bond yield and ever-rising US stock prices.
london red 09:13:10 GMT - 07/08/2021
Kevin, i see your gap so its a poss tgt but it looks like a return to breakout level 0.95-1.00 is on the cards. its such a strong move lower regardless of economic data beating or missing. its just relentless. you need to see a move of at least 10 points off the low and a strong close to the week to call a bottom otherwise it will just keep going down. its a head scratcher as to why its going but why isnt a requirement for direction. while its falling best not to call bottom until it stops.
HK Kevin 08:51:31 GMT - 07/08/2021
london red 08:14 GMT, does 12 Feb high 1.2130 a key support for 10 year bond yield? I see a gap high opening on 15 Feb.
PAR08:38:43 GMT - 07/08/2021
Don't panic. Don't panic. Don't panic.... Panic. GET ME OUT.
PAR08:16:39 GMT - 07/08/2021
Looks like ECB is buying stock index futures for the PPT to stabilize markets as US futures drop almost 1%.
london red 08:14:33 GMT - 07/08/2021
yield on the 10 is still crashing and now at a key point. soon there will be a 1.00 target is doesnt find support soon. so ft100 being value based gets double timed. they are trying to avoid hrly close below 7065. if fails then 7k next
Mtl JP 08:10:55 GMT - 07/08/2021
London appears to "understand" FOMC minutes differently
Mtl JP 07:23:56 GMT - 07/08/2021
fratelli di profitto
Mtl JP 00:49:44 GMT - 07/08/2021
Fed's Bostic says tapering will be gradual, and that central bank is watching progress of delta variant - MarketWatch
Fed's Bostic Says Time to Taper Is Growing Nearer, but Won't Put Date on It - The Wall Street Journal
Mtl JP 23:42:51 GMT - 07/07/2021
"Biden’s plans to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy are losing momentum"
I guess it is better
to be wealthy or corporation
Mtl JP 21:06:52 GMT - 07/07/2021
here comes the gimme gimme gimmetoo crowd
"As stimulus check petition hits 2.5 million signatures, Americans ask: ‘Will there be a fourth payment?’" - cnbc
GVI Forex14:41:24 GMT - 07/07/2021
Here is what I mean by signs of an AT bottom (eurgbp)
GVI Forex14:34:51 GMT - 07/07/2021
Look at this AT chart - choices are either short or step aside if you do not want to sell until AT tells you a bottom is in.
Whatever the case, the blue lines indicate an imbalance to the downside. Note similar charts in other pairs.
Newsquawk reported talk of stops below 1.1795 area
AT charts show a void of key levrls until lower 1.17s, which means LOD takes on added significance.
Mtl JP 13:37:05 GMT - 07/07/2021
looking to challenge 1.1800 Sup
bellow 1.1775-ish zone trgt
Mtl JP 12:04:35 GMT - 07/07/2021
climbing n climbing on small pullbacks
climbing the proverbial wall-o-worry ?
otherwise have lurking suspicion players are gunning for 4400
Mtl JP 11:52:34 GMT - 07/07/2021
14:00est - FOMC Minutes
could make for long day bit like war:
long moments of boredom, short period of desperation
Mtl JP 10:37:38 GMT - 07/07/2021
10-yr 1.345; DLRx 92.53
Fed Minutes of June FOMC Under Scrutiny for Taper-Timing Hints
..."Fed has been buying $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month. ... ..."Analysts will be combing through the minutes for details on tapering, including when it could start and what the pace might be -- though that level of discussion might be more likely at upcoming Fed meetings, including its gathering later this month."...
and players will be trying to skin profits from market reaction
fratelli di profitto
Mtl JP 09:48:44 GMT - 07/07/2021
ahead of NY session
Futures Rise With Stocks Ahead of Fed Minutes
Mtl JP 07:40:28 GMT - 07/07/2021
Puppy continues to be lacking enthusiasts after the clear n quick rejection against 1.19.
Sideways wallow currently, bound by Res 1.1845 and Sup 1.18
Sentiment around the dollar is the dominant driving energy;
player mood towards the euro appears one of ambivalence, needs new catalyst
Mtl JP 23:22:50 GMT - 07/06/2021
global ransomware attack had minimal impact on U.S. businesses
Mtl JP 22:07:53 GMT - 07/06/2021
between CB 21:34 and red 19:27 it appears only a matter of timing of a shift of buying by enthousiastes answering "who is left to buy?"
"cycles".. "episodes" .. rotation .. timing
dc CB 21:34:40 GMT - 07/06/2021
just took 10 mins after it opened at 9:30AM EDT.
Rain in the Plains.
(The Weather Channel)
london red 19:27:00 GMT - 07/06/2021
dont think especially short. its coming out of a long sidewaysd pattern and today is the break day that algos buy. of course to best way to approach these big tech sleepy periods is buying the mid to bottom of range and holding.
Mtl JP 19:04:52 GMT - 07/06/2021
red was the market short ?
london red 18:42:37 GMT - 07/06/2021
with just over an hour to go looks like amzn finally breaking out. a close above its previous past peak targets a move to over 4k. last time it made a break higher from a similar consolidation period it was over 10% higher after 3 days and almost 50% higher 3 months later
Mtl JP 18:09:10 GMT - 07/06/2021
well well well, what a flexible mind
london red 14:54:29 GMT - 07/06/2021
HK Kevin 14:38 GMT 07/06/2021
big tech helping mine today but if they spin by the close then we are looking at bigger falls as a few are them are ready to pullback and or will show break failures in case of amazon.
Mtl JP 14:44:46 GMT - 07/06/2021
I can see some freaking out over disastrous price action at the sight of US long term yields in the toilet
Mtl JP 14:42:37 GMT - 07/06/2021
stock pukeout over
HK Kevin 14:38:22 GMT - 07/06/2021
london red 14:26 GMT, NKE & SPEC save my stock portfolio
london red 14:26:50 GMT - 07/06/2021
but amazon breaking out to a new high from a long sideway trend. unless this reverses by end of day, its unlikely there will be a huge sell off (fangs 25% of s&p) but rather more rotation from value into tech.
GVI Forex14:21:19 GMT - 07/06/2021
Mtl JP 14:06:41 GMT - 07/06/2021
lower cost of money and snp heaving some
one is wrong
london red 14:01:43 GMT - 07/06/2021
1.3670 is where the 10 should bounce. if not is likely to crash thru recent low of 1.35 and test 1.25. that would prob mean lower stocks for a day or two but hard to see that unless big tech which is up 1-3% on day reverses by end of day.
GVI Forex13:58:19 GMT - 07/06/2021
Oil is down and US yields continue to slip (1.382% 10 year) - fx is not sure what to do with it, watch AT for guideance.
GVI Forex12:51:08 GMT - 07/06/2021
Look at EURGBP as the real money flow driving it today.
How do we know there are real money flows? When currencies move in the opposite direction (eurusd down, gbpusd up), we can infer that real money flows are behind the moves.
red some stocks are societally as essential as - for example - water
london red 19:26:47 GMT - 07/02/2021
fwiw msft i dont think its a short. maybe theres 10% downside. im still long just less so. you gotta take em from time to time that is all. maybe it sees 250-260 before it sees 300 is all.
london red 19:24:44 GMT - 07/02/2021
cut some msft here by 278. top of channel. mad run from mean to where we are today suggests either top today or a bear candle false break tuesday. good news is if i am wrong, the mkt is about to begin a massive run higher short squeeze type run.
Mtl JP 17:23:36 GMT - 07/02/2021
atm back to what previously was Sup level
by one tech indicator below 1.1840 puppy is "oversold"
Sup 1.1810/00; Res 1.1860/85
Mtl JP 00:16:09 GMT - 07/02/2021
maybe why the deficit is considered just a temporary transitional tool , like a bridge, until
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund raised its 2021 U.S. growth projection sharply to 7.0% due to a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and an assumption that much of President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and social spending plans will be enacted."
Mtl JP 20:27:34 GMT - 07/01/2021
"U.S. budget deficit will hit $3 trillion this year, CBO projects"
also a "$ucce$$"
Mtl JP 20:17:09 GMT - 07/01/2021
"S&P 500 books 35th record close of 2021 while the Dow marks fourth-highest finish in its history" - MarketWatch
some would call it "$ucce$$"
GVI Forex17:50:55 GMT - 07/01/2021
The CB party line
Pound Declines As BoE Bailey Dismisses Inflation Concerns
GVI Forex17:33:28 GMT - 07/01/2021
AUD/USD extends slide to fresh 2021 low
Mtl JP 17:14:46 GMT - 07/01/2021
appears good Res
famous last words
Mtl JP 11:36:59 GMT - 07/01/2021
inflation // transitory or
sufficiently high prices are self correcting
"Lumber prices dive more than 40% in June, biggest monthly drop on record" - cnbc
dc CB 18:03:51 GMT - 06/30/2021
the last one in June, the quarter and the half
Just shy of the One Trillion Dollar mark...Golly, there seem to be a ton-o-treasuries in the hands of "certified counterparties", along witha growing number of 'sainted ones/aka Cardinals in the Church of Ponzi.
lower yield should help usd dip some
but no guarantee
Mtl JP 16:47:56 GMT - 06/30/2021
betting the dip is mostly over; going long here
see if DLRx holds 92.50 Res
GVI Forex13:48:55 GMT - 06/30/2021
Weaker than expected Chi PMI . No Fx reaction.
Mtl JP 09:03:50 GMT - 06/30/2021
SnP at Sup here
old 80/20 Natural law at work ?
80% of time to build
20% of time to destroy
In Nature, bones are usually the last thing to "dis-appear"
Mtl JP 08:44:00 GMT - 06/30/2021
dlr uP and N of its 200-day
does not look like dlt uP motivated by return
maybe trying to price NFP miss vs exp'tion
FED's experts' outlook and reflation yapping on the line
Mtl JP 02:11:20 GMT - 06/30/2021
to h3ll with contract
(wsj) Supreme Court Declines to Lift National Eviction Moratorium
The high court rejected landlords' emergency request to suspend enforcement of the moratorium imposed by the CDC.
GVI Forex14:11:59 GMT - 06/29/2021
US bond yields are not reacting to stronger US consumer confidence. 10 year last 1.485%
GVI Forex12:06:42 GMT - 06/29/2021
Keep an eye on EURGBP — off its high has seen EURUSD extend its low while GBPUSD lags
Brent 73.98 says dlr's purchasing power is uP some
Mtl JP 08:40:47 GMT - 06/29/2021
and , according to Dow Jones, "China’s central bank to make monetary policy more targeted, flexible" to boot
how "more targeted" is "flexible" escapes my non-PhD cerebrum
Mtl JP 08:33:46 GMT - 06/29/2021
in the meantime
"World Bank raises China growth outlook to 8.5%"
Mtl JP 21:30:58 GMT - 06/28/2021
US 10-yr: 1.478%
at end of day about 17:30 NYT
Mtl JP 16:37:02 GMT - 06/28/2021
around time of the lack of faith survey
Mtl JP 16:29:34 GMT - 06/28/2021
oh oh-ooohh ...
there probably is no worse news for the FED peddlers and purveyors of bullsh!t
• CFOs at companies around the globe are worried about input costs and wage inflation, according to the Q2 CNBC Global CFO Council survey, and in the U.S., more financial officers say price hikes may be needed if the inflationary trends remain in place.
• North America-based CFOs express little confidence in the Fed to control inflation, but their view of the near-term future for stocks is more optimistic, with the majority expecting the Dow to reach 40,000 rather than sell off, and bond yields expected to rise moderately into the end of the year.
at noon nyt yaks barkin
about "inflation risk" that should be fun
Mtl JP 13:12:40 GMT - 06/28/2021
bouncing off 1.1900, does not mean it reacted to some weidmann hawkyak
so puppy is now prancing essentially in a 50-pip range.
In a longer than 5-60min time frame I am tilting towards the 1.1950 breakout side. eventually.
Mtl JP 11:29:39 GMT - 06/28/2021
more bullsh.t about 2 percent inflation target
“It’s very important for us to get back to our 2 percent inflation target but the goal is for that to be sustainable. And for that to be sustainable, we can’t have a boom and bust cycle in something like real estate.”—
Greg Robb asked Fed Chair Jerome Powell in April about the fact the central bank was buying mortgage-backed securities, which was helping to boost the housing market.
Private equity is even crazier then the stock markets.
Free money created unicorns as never seen before.
Mtl JP 14:38:43 GMT - 06/27/2021
apocalypse in UK ?
britts going to don goat or sheep costume and go grazing ?
U.K. Faces Food Shortages as Worker Scarcity Gets Worse
(Bloomberg) -- From abattoirs to restaurant kitchens, the U.K. food sector is facing a massive challenge this summer: there just aren’t enough workers.
The food industry, already facing labor shortages because of Brexit and the pandemic, is now being stretched to capacity as the country reopens. Meat processors are cutting production and a “catastrophic” dearth of drivers is disrupting food deliveries to supermarkets. Warehouses and farms are short of labor too, threatening to choke food supply flows, while local pubs and Michelin-starred restaurants are having to restrict service and boost wages for chefs and waiting staff. .../.
Mtl JP 11:16:22 GMT - 06/27/2021
Near-term global bond market correction likely-strategists: Reuters poll
BENGALURU (Reuters June 24 2021) - A significant global bond market correction is likely in the next three months as central bankers eye the exit door from pandemic emergency policy, according to a Reuters poll of strategists who also forecast modestly higher yields in a year. .../.
Haters Everywhere in Stock Market After S&P 500’s Big First Half
(Bloomberg June 25, 2021) -- People were already worried about equities six months ago. Now, after the S&P 500 Index defied everything from nosebleed valuations to inflation to post one of the best first halves ever, they’re downright paranoid.
Wall Street strategists, never ones to restrain their enthusiasm when it’s warranted, warn that the gains have played out. Short sellers are circling, with wagers against the largest equity exchange-traded fund rising to the highest level this year. Star investors like Michael Burry have warned of the “mother of all crashes” in meme stocks .../..
Mtl JP 15:37:31 GMT - 06/25/2021
"We should see a lot more labor supply in the fall," Kashkari
"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has received the public backing of a majority of colleagues for his view that the recent inflation surge will fade, even as some policy makers question that stance and see the need for interest-rate hikes next year.
Remarks by numerous officials since the U.S. central bank’s June 15-16 meeting show a debate over how long inflationary pressures will last. For now, the coalition around Powell’s position appears to have the upper hand." .../..
This week all US economic numbers were a little softer
than expected. I don't see a booming US economy.
I think more helicopter money will be needed.
It looks rather bad for the June unemployment figures contrary to Powell's predictions of a strong labor
Stock market moves higher on low rates forever.
Mtl JP 13:54:20 GMT - 06/25/2021
so far attempt at 1.1970 Res repulsed
DLRx 91.53 needs to rip down below 91.50
Mtl JP 13:02:49 GMT - 06/25/2021
If not when , maybe at least where
Wouldn’t it be great to know when financial crises are about to happen?
a lot of data to chew through but sometimes first look first assumption is the correct one. everyone expecting hyperinflation but the data is reasonable. bonds are not going to be seeing 1.50 today if anything they will had lower. i dont think they can retest 1.35 today but that should be the direction after the data. as for stocks, techs to do better than value again today. infrastructure has been higher since last night, but will it be better to travel than arrive given value is weak generally. a reason to sell maybe.
Mtl JP 12:38:26 GMT - 06/25/2021
12-month rate of change in PCE core advances to 3.4% from 3.1%
12-month rate of PCE index climbs to 3.9% from 3.4%
GVI Forex12:24:54 GMT - 06/25/2021
From the AT Forum
GVI Forex 11:50 GMT 06/25/2021 - My Profile
The main flow seems to be in EURGBP (up) after the BOE dented the GBP balloon yesterday.Watch your AT charts.
GVI Forex10:38:36 GMT - 06/25/2021
JP, The Amazing Trader (AT) will give a clue when an imbalance is building and signal when there is a directional risk = opportunity to trade .
Jay "Stay alert." sounds like a trade opp for gain instead
which side is most vulnerable ?
8:30 - PCE for May
-- UofM (cons sentiment)
--- plus a rainshower of FED's "truth" propaganda peddlers on deck
--- (notably NyFed's williams)
GVI Forex09:02:29 GMT - 06/25/2021
Is it a summer Friday or the chop this week that has turned it quiet. As I have said in the past and repeated recently,
Stay alert. Markets move when least expected. In other words, complacency can be a trader’s worst enemy.
Mtl JP 00:58:29 GMT - 06/25/2021
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday released the results of its annual bank stress tests, which showed that large banks continue to have strong capital levels and could continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession
18 years later and one our GV star traders words still resonates and describe the earlier price action. I have taken this one step further using AT
LA Mel 15:04 GMT February 26, 2003 Reply
euro seems bid in an offered market now....
Mtl JP 10:08:16 GMT - 06/24/2021
free profit opportunity suggestion:
"Gun Sales Are Coming Under Scrutiny. Smith & Wesson Stock Is Poised to Pop Higher." - Barron's
SWBI $28.76 (June 23)
Mtl JP 09:45:31 GMT - 06/24/2021
euro 1.1938 , basically limping atm
bit of a risk-on this morning
SnP all-time high 4,257.16
Mtl JP 20:30:03 GMT - 06/23/2021
there was a time he was revered
(Reuters) John McAfee found dead in prison after Spanish court allows extradition
Mtl JP 20:22:05 GMT - 06/23/2021
lagarde's yak - whatever it was - passed by the market like a ship at night
dc CB 17:45:30 GMT - 06/23/2021
today's Treasury auction of $61BN in 5 year paper, has come in quite weak in the aftermath of last week's hawkish FOMC pivot.
One day after we got a tailing, disappointing 2Y auction, we got a carbon-copy only this time at the 5Y tenor, when the US sold the latest batch of 5Y paper at a high yield of 0.904%, a sharp jump from last month's 0.788%, the highest 5Y auction yield in 16 months since the pre-covid Feb 2020 auction, and a 0.2bps tail to the When Issued 0.902%.
Accepted Counterparties: 73
813.573 Billion Dollars
... a pedestrian bridge across I-295 in Northeast Washington, DC has collapsed.
The bridge collapsed around 1230ET, leaving 6 injured - 4 of which were rushed to hospital while 2 were treated at the scene.
puppy now looking weak as players were nursed back from their enthusiastic delusional rally (by powell mester williams)
PMI in about an hour
bunch of "taper" erasers scheduled to yak some more
also lagarde at noon nyt
I am biased usd (down)
Mtl JP 11:31:41 GMT - 06/23/2021
"We can and must safeguard the financial system
-- yellen October 9, 2013"
so ... that is how they do it :
WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - The country's largest lenders are poised to start issuing as much as $130 billion in dividends and stock buybacks from next month after the U.S. Federal Reserve gives them what is expected to be a clean bill of health on Thursday, said analysts. .../..
Basically, both EUR and GBP are in buy mode after breaking ytd high.
Mtl JP 16:36:42 GMT - 06/22/2021
lets see if Nigel is trying to be funny
Mtl JP 16:26:30 GMT - 06/22/2021
Puppy looks hesitant bullish while above 1.1850 Supp.
To run uP it needs to pop N of and hold 1.1925
Mtl JP 16:18:24 GMT - 06/22/2021
Puppy looks as if it has seen its top (reached the 18th), currently panting and resting after last week's euphoric rally.
At top of hour Fed peddles off 2yr bonds.
Mtl JP 15:27:26 GMT - 06/21/2021
- first interest rate hike could come before tapering has ended but not what he wants now
- he doesn't think tapering will be on auto-pilot
- it is up to FOMC when to start tapering asset purchase, says it takes time to organize
- economy is booming and strong growth may last for several years
Mtl JP 15:14:17 GMT - 06/21/2021
The un-spoken awkwardness in market is lack of confidence in and quiet worry for the outlook for US economy as the Fed gang gingerly attempts to broach the tapering topic. Maybe that is why USDis off some this morning.
Outside the rainfall of various FED gang members yakking, chief mushroom farmer yaks tomorrow. (officially to politicians)
Bottom Line propaganda message:
tapering economic "support" remains a handle with care like early versions of nitroglycerin with plenty advance trumpeting.
USDx 91.865; 10-yr 1.426%
Mtl JP 14:25:37 GMT - 06/21/2021
DLRx 91.885 (down a bit)
Puppy mildly bullish.
S 1.1850; puppy popping N of 1.1925 and holding it should open 1.1950/75 in the short term
Mtl JP 14:11:45 GMT - 06/21/2021
lagarde yaks again at 10:15 - ~5 mins
Mtl JP 21:41:58 GMT - 06/20/2021
How long does liquidating market take to liquidate ?
Presumably started after wednesday's jerome act.
then bullard's act II clobbered the market puppies some more.
subsequent kashkari act IIb did little if nothing to market nega-sentiment sofat.
"euro will be back at 1,21 next week." - Tallinn viies 06 -17-2021
bit more out:
"The Fed has penciled in two rate hikes for 2023, but by the time they get around to hiking, they will instead be cutting." Mike Shedlock - from GVI Forex 10:40 linked piece
Mtl JP 07:02:23 GMT - 06/11/2021
futures are flat after new high and nevermind rising inflation
Mtl JP 07:26:12 GMT - 06/10/2021
London is betting that
1) CPI is coming in "hot" OR
2) pushing price lower ahead of a benign CPI to get in at better price
I am leaning to #2
dc CB 18:52:00 GMT - 06/09/2021
10Y Auction US Treas.
Today's high yield was 1.497% (almost 20bps below the 1.684% at the last auction), trading through the WI yield by a very significant 1bps
AND 15 mins later
502.904 Billion------------AKA Half-a-Trillion Dollars
Tallinn viies 13:45:08 GMT - 06/09/2021
pain trade would be if it will fall below 1,25% or 1,00%.
there is no reason why it should be between 1,50-2,00 % when front end struggles not to move below 0,00%.
The Treasury’s net issuance of bills has been negative in recent months, putting downward pressure on yields.
JP Morgan’s client survey points to deeper bets against Treasuries. The risk to yields is to the downside.
so keep buying the stuff! US indexes or whatever.
Mtl JP 13:41:08 GMT - 06/09/2021
when (and under what circumstance) was 1.5% yield seen last eh koko ?
Odds are tom's CPI print ("what would you like it to print") will be made to help stop if not reverse the perversity in yield.
Mtl JP 22:25:16 GMT - 06/08/2021
bing bang and ... POOF !
did you feel the earth move (besides some pork-related stocks) ?
• Infrastructure negotiations between the White House and a small group of Republican senators have collapsed.
• With no deal in sight, President Joe Biden spoke by phone Tuesday with senators who are part of a bipartisan group that has been quietly working on a backup infrastructure plan.
• In addition to bipartisan options, Biden also spoke to the top two Democrats on Tuesday, and gave them a green light to begin crafting an infrastructure bill that can pass without any Republican votes.
is this a hint:
Energy Secretary Granholm Says Hackers Could Shut Down the U.S. Power Grid - Barron's ?
Mtl JP 14:59:12 GMT - 06/07/2021
some might argue euro enthusiasm (HoD 91 sofar) is the fault of eurgbp
Mtl JP 14:47:18 GMT - 06/07/2021
this is where some sort of privileged knowledge about order line could come in handy
Mtl JP 14:45:16 GMT - 06/07/2021
sharks nibbling at stops
Mtl JP 14:32:48 GMT - 06/07/2021
near Res at 1.2185
Can the puppy be lamer than lame ?
still inside the 1.2150-1.2250 corridor.
st S at 1.2150/45, more likely at 1.21
To show some spunk it will need to breach and stay N of 1.22 at least
London Trader 13:32:39 GMT - 06/07/2021
Is anyone playing the short USD side or just the range?
NY JM 12:14:40 GMT - 06/07/2021
This feels like the calm before key events/data mid week onwards.
Mtl JP 12:03:58 GMT - 06/06/2021
ECB Isn’t About to Flinch at First Sign of a Recovery: Eco Week
(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank officials will debate whether to prolong their elevated pace of emergency bond-buying this week, a judgment that rests on how fragile they determine the economy’s recovery to be. ... A lively debate is likely though, in a possible precursor to the discussion the Federal Reserve will have the following week on whether to keep up its own stimulus or start paring it back. ../.
Bank of Russia holds a rate-setting meeting Friday
U.K.’s monthly GDP, industrial production and trade figures due Friday.
U.S. CPI on Thursday; April job openings and report on jobless claims
Fed are in blackout this upcoming week ahead of their next meeting on June 15-16.
Abel I wish me luck as I continue 2 b dlr-bear biased. Even IF puppy closes N of 90.05 it ll close uP on the week.
With NFP having come in yet again crappy (+559K vs +675K xpct'd) odds of FED gang yik-yak to quell their minimum $120bln QE and/or hiking yield are currently POOF! and off the table. (Mester says "We want to be deliberately patient here because this was a huge, huge shock to the economy," "Bottom line, I would like to see further progress than where we are right now." - on cnbc)
In aggregate I read that as dark clouds for this week's DLR flop-uPs.
Jkt Abel 16:50:18 GMT - 06/04/2021
Gold will close below 1900, top for today is in. Same with other usd cousins.
Jkt Abel 16:47:45 GMT - 06/04/2021
Well gold very much off the high and no sign of returning high. Usdx also holding key 90 level. Betting on usd to hold ground here.
Mtl JP 14:51:05 GMT - 06/04/2021
new (but old at the same time) from the admirer of chinese dictatorship:
“Now more than ever, world leaders need to come together to tackle the challenges of today and tomorrow. Canada will continue to work with our global partners to keep our people healthy, create jobs and opportunity, grow the middle class, fight climate change, and strengthen democratic values. Only together can we bring an end to this pandemic and build a future that works for everyone.”
I suggest that it is not a good idea to dismiss even slightly the evil intent of the globalists to corral, to control, to squeeze and, if necessary, to punish.
PAR14:21:48 GMT - 06/04/2021
G7 has become a little irrelevant in the current economic world.
Mtl JP 14:17:42 GMT - 06/04/2021
Note about elites, rulers, planners, schemers and assorted globalists:
LONDON, June 4 (Reuters) - Finance ministers from the G7 group of rich nations are meeting in London on Friday for two days of talks aimed at .../..
Then next week:
G7 Leaders' Summit in Carbis Bay, United Kingdom from June 11 to 13, 2021
(all of them travelling to shindig either by sailboat or hot-air balloon. sarc)
Mtl JP 10:09:21 GMT - 06/04/2021
first wh let it be know that sleepy joe "will raise cyberattacks with Putin"
now a cnbc headlines that
"Biden administration mulling cyber attacks against Russian hackers"
haha, just keep mulling joe
Jkt Abel 02:08:21 GMT - 06/04/2021
Gold rose, ab disappeared..gold down, kwun disappeared
Mtl JP 00:25:35 GMT - 06/04/2021
maybe it is the hot ADP as the wall-of-worry
that is making yield go uP
Mtl JP 00:19:37 GMT - 06/04/2021
there is something stocks don't like
nikkei is off, us snp continues to slide as well
Mtl JP 18:00:09 GMT - 06/03/2021
scared what vlad may have on him ?
"Biden will raise cyberattacks with Putin at meeting, White House says"
Mtl JP 17:55:03 GMT - 06/03/2021
US 10-yr 1.623
some are probably asking:
Is this the start of a fresh climb in US yields?
Mtl JP 16:05:15 GMT - 06/03/2021
10-yr giving only 1.619%
and does not look like it is in a hurry to give more
Mtl JP 15:05:55 GMT - 06/03/2021
Looking for a turn North.
Sub 1.2150 looks over-extended
Mtl JP 14:56:48 GMT - 06/03/2021
US 10-yr 1.622
DLR still inside range.
Rallies, sofar, have been clubbed.
IMHO, even if NFP comes in hotter than experts' opinion, DLR's rally risks a Jubb's rampage - nless.... yield blows North
Mtl JP 14:56:34 GMT - 06/03/2021
US 10-yr 1.622
DLR still inside range.
Rallies, sofar, have been clubbed.
IMHO, even if NFP comes in hotter than experts' opinion, DLR's rally risks a Jubb's rampage - nless.... yield blows North
Mtl JP 06:52:00 GMT - 06/03/2021
it is dump risk time in Ldn
haifa ac 06:13:11 GMT - 06/03/2021
"Lapid announces: I succeeded in forming a coalition"
Leberman (russian thug)////Zandberg (communist)////Michaeli (Leftist) ////Mansur Abas (Arab head of ISLAMIC party who vows to exterminate Israel) Bennet (supposedly rightist)////Lapid (The Mayor of the State of Tel-Aviv)
Like a bunch of monkeys trying to form an orchestra ("The Quartet" by Krylov).
The only glue that holds this group is HATRED towards Bibi (who world leaders regard as great as Churchill as far as leaders go)/ Now that the single glueing factor is gone--what is holding them together?! N A D A.
We shall see how long this fictional government holds.
Mtl JP 01:12:40 GMT - 06/03/2021
at first painfully slowly. then ... suddenly and definitely poooOOF!
onto garbage heap of history
Lapid announces: I succeeded in forming a coalition
Factories are making more money selling fewer products at higher prices and material shortages are just an excuse.
Problem is that the companies became too big have too much money and power and don't tolerate any competition.
Governments should stimulate competition and destroy monopolies, duopolies and any excessive power in whatever sector.
But that would lower prices, lower profit margins and crash the stock market.
For the real economy that would be a huge plus.
Mtl JP 17:24:34 GMT - 06/01/2021
remember the GAP
almost - if not as I type - POOF !
Mtl JP 16:46:42 GMT - 06/01/2021
PAR if "Products are too expensive" how is it that "factories are humming, with strong demand for products" while "labor is not adequately compensated" ? (assuming labor that actually holds a job)
PAR16:39:42 GMT - 06/01/2021
Labor vs Capital
In the past 67% labor 33% capital.
Nowadays 59% labor 41% capital.
Products are too expensive and labor is not adequately compensated.
So employees loose twice.
Profit marges are excessive as there is less and less competition.
Apple just increases its prices instead of selling more phones. So they need less labor to make those phones and make more money.
Mtl JP 15:54:35 GMT - 06/01/2021
on one hand: every "green" screams curb consumption, reuse and recycle
on the other: ..." factories are humming, with strong demand for products supporting activity that would be even stronger if the resources were available to expand production,”... but one is encouraged not to fear as "in time as millions of unemployed Americans are incentivized to fill a flood of job openings"
saves me typing
10:54 S&P 500 down 0.1%; Nasdaq Composite drops 0.4%
10:53 Dow industrials up 104 points, or 0.3%
10:53 Stocks erase opening gains; S&P 500, Nasdaq turn negative
10:49 U.S. manufacturers have tons of demand, ISM finds, but they’re handcuffed by labor and supply shortages
the solution to "tons of demand" is ....
raise prices. more. and if still "tons of demand" -> means prices still too low so raise prices. more. and moRE.
until demand balances supply
Mtl JP 15:01:30 GMT - 06/01/2021
Dog eat Dog
going after the gap
Mtl JP 14:16:24 GMT - 06/01/2021
... am enthusiastic... s/be am not enthusiastic
Mtl JP 14:15:00 GMT - 06/01/2021
as long as yield is tamped (say under ytd's high)
USD is in sell bias.
additionally, higher commodities means lower usd
which plays with commodity ccies
I am enthusiastic about the puppy, stuck as it is between 1.2150 and 1.2250 currently
Res 1.2250/1.23/2349 (or targets)
Mtl JP 16:02:50 GMT - 05/31/2021
• The May jobs report looms large for markets in the week ahead, with 674,000 jobs expected, after last month’s disappointing 266,000 payrolls.
• Stocks turned in a mixed performance in May, and according to Bespoke, June can be weak, with the Dow down on average 0.7% for the month over the last 20 years.
• The focus will largely be on the economy and the Fed in the coming week, after another hotter-than-expected inflation report was released Friday.
with UK and US closed, market is drifting.
later in the week potentially market dynamic will change on US employment and PMI releases
appears to be getting somewhat lame: not expecting much enthusiasm for the puppy in light of the steep plunge on Fr.
Sup 1.2180/75/50-ish; Res 1.2215 and around Jay's magical figure.
Mtl JP 07:53:59 GMT - 05/31/2021
ahead of holiday monday NY
"Asian markets fall after disappointing economic data from Japan, China"
"(Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe struggled for traction along with U.S. futures after signs China’s economic recovery may be leveling out and as investors continue to weigh global inflation risks.
Here are key events to watch this week:
U.S. markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.
U.K. markets will be closed for the Spring Bank holiday
Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision Tuesday
OPEC+ meets to review oil production levels Tuesday
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speak Wednesday
U.S. employment report for May on Friday"
Mtl JP 05:52:56 GMT - 05/31/2021
H&S in the making ?
is that what is next ?
Mtl JP 22:46:02 GMT - 05/30/2021
Reuters - Rapid appreciation of China's yuan not sustainable, says former PBOC official
BEIJING, May 30 (Reuters) - The rapid appreciation of China's yuan against the U.S. dollar may have overshot and will not be sustainable, a former central bank official said in an interview with state media Xinhua News on Sunday. .../.
Mtl JP 22:37:01 GMT - 05/29/2021
Is the low yield on the dlr a / the factor ?
Is sub 6.40 a trap ?
Seeking comments, postulations, trade ideas
Mtl JP 16:45:41 GMT - 05/28/2021
Perro Come Perro
Opinion: The Theory at the Heart of Modern Portfolios Is Leading Investors Astray
US stock markets boosted by a weaker US dollar and lower rates.
haifa ac 14:36:10 GMT - 05/28/2021
You forgot this:
After more than a year of social isolation during the pandemic, the sentiment may perfectly encapsulate the purported vibe of the coming months – a period in which people are swapping masks for a different kind of protection. Welcome to summer 2021: the summer of sex."
10-yr 1.622 (vs ytd 1.765 high)
Nikkei ... is on fire. FIRE !
Mtl JP 06:43:42 GMT - 05/28/2021
two same direction gaps
raise the Qtn: belief or fact ?
discounting economic re-opening: belief or fact ?
PAR06:40:50 GMT - 05/28/2021
Before and during a long US holiday weekend US stock markets always move higher.
A long-established Wall Street tradition.
Mtl JP 15:35:07 GMT - 05/27/2021
DLRx 90.05 - definitely undecided
euro 1.2187 - puppy definitely undecided as well bouncing inside 1.2210 / 1.2180
the buffalo herd needs a pistol crack
PAR12:39:31 GMT - 05/27/2021
World markets rise on strong economic data and on Biden's plan to spend, spend and spend trillions and trillions.
Typical pre-US holiday markets.
Mtl JP 09:21:06 GMT - 05/27/2021
DLR s up against l/t Res live.
Breach N opens 90.40
and euro should ploink correspondingly
near S (and trgt): 1.2150-ish
PAR07:34:38 GMT - 05/27/2021
Before and during a US holiday US markets almost always move higher.
PAR07:16:12 GMT - 05/27/2021
Looking forward to along weekend in the USA.
" The US remains in focus today with a $62 bln 7y auction, April durable goods orders and the weekly jobless claims. We doubt though whether they will be pivotal for trading. The overarching feeling over the past few days is one of doubt and not knowing where to go from here. In the run-up to the long US weekend (May 31, Memorial Day) we don’t expect to see large directional moves. Both US and German (10y) yields are near or have hit first support levels. These should hold as long as the big picture of the economic reopening remains intact. The dollar’s downside got a little more protection after yesterday’s price action. That said, we see no reason for a protracted USD revival either. EUR/USD touched 23.6% Fibonacci support (Nov 20 – Jan 21 upleg) near 1.217 this morning. Some sideways consolidation might be in the making. EUR/GBP continues a choppy upward sloping path."
Mtl JP 16:36:59 GMT - 05/26/2021
It is my premise that it is the DLR that sets the dancing tone
i.e dlr leads, euro follows
Mtl JP 16:32:44 GMT - 05/26/2021
coincident with DLRx 90
euro should find Sup around here
Mtl JP 16:18:25 GMT - 05/26/2021
above 90 puppy should find Res
Mtl JP 10:02:31 GMT - 05/26/2021
sitting on Sup line
the trend is still strong
for what I do not know
Mtl JP 07:52:19 GMT - 05/26/2021
Asian markets rise as inflation fears ease
Stocks edge higher in Tokyo, Hong Kong
..."Investors also have been encouraged by stronger U.S. corporate profits and consumer spending. That has kept the U.S. stock market near record highs and boosted optimism in global markets.
Data due out Thursday are expected to show the biggest global economy accelerated in the first three months of this year after expanding at an annual rate of 4.3% in 2020’s final quarter. Economists expect a huge rebound this year following the deepest slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s." .../.
Mtl JP 14:29:31 GMT - 05/25/2021
... ++ ...
..."FBI said the cybercriminals using the malicious software dubbed 'Conti' have targeted law enforcement, emergency medical services, dispatch centers, and municipalities." .../.
sell ... or .... buy
and the difference in argument for either is the reason
why markets exist
... “That inflation shock fear eased over the past week,”
Now, investors are watching the Fed to see how quickly it will respond to the inflation.
The point is that investors are now expecting interest rates across the board to rise sooner rather than later. Don’t be surprised to see significant stock-market volatility as the Fed story unfolds. ...
puppy not getting much love
I continue to prefer selling pops uP / rallies
Mtl JP 07:23:32 GMT - 05/24/2021
Hello ! Now POOF!
Mtl JP 23:55:12 GMT - 05/23/2021
... central bankers are already wondering ...
Global Rebound Euphoria Tests Central Bankers’ Nerves on Risk
Craig Stirling, Sun., May 23, 2021
Global Rebound Euphoria Tests Central Bankers’ Nerves on Risk
(Bloomberg) -- With the world barely through the worst of an unprecedented crisis, central bankers are already wondering if the next one is around the corner. .../..
From Washington to Frankfurt, what began months ago as a murmur of concern has morphed into a chorus as officials ask if a risk-taking binge across multiple asset markets might presage a destabilizing rout that could derail the global recovery.
Mtl JP 23:51:59 GMT - 05/23/2021
Home Office considers charging EU citizens to visit Britain
The new Electronic Travel Authorisation scheme would be based on the US model, which costs £9
Mtl JP 23:42:35 GMT - 05/23/2021
As I am still USD nega-biased ...
Macklem's Bank of Canada Warns Home Buyers Rates Will Eventually Rise
“Interest rates are unusually low, borrowers and lenders both have a role in ensuring that households can still afford to service their debt at higher rates. Counting on ever-higher house prices to build home equity that can be used to refinance mortgages in the future is a bad idea."
no sh.t sherlock. I can hardly wait for manifestation of "The central bank found there are signs of more speculative activity in some key markets that could post financial stability concerns." and "concerns associated with any repricing globally of risky assets with stretched valuations." Who likes exhuberant pricing ? And who likes lower prices (i.e repricing) ?
Mtl JP 16:00:37 GMT - 05/20/2021
puppy just floating abouve 89.66 3x Support
puppy 's proving sofar that there is little appetite for it
the yield would have to change
in the meantime I am keeping nega bias
prefer trading pops from short side
and stocks look like they ll be puking
Mtl JP 10:53:44 GMT - 05/19/2021
can someone disprove the 1-> 2-> 3 theory that the squid has the market by the ballz when it dumps GOLD ?
1) GOLD 1856 from 1874
2) just in time for DLRx 89.655 to hold S and
3) EURO 1.2240 hold Res
Mtl JP 06:15:22 GMT - 05/19/2021
a bit of history according to Bloomberg
Stocks in Asia declined with U.S. and European equity futures Wednesday as concern about faster inflation overshadowed the economic recovery from the pandemic. A dollar gauge traded near the lowest level this year.
dc CB 01:25:40 GMT - 05/19/2021
Pre 1990 Used Farm Tractors and Combines will double or triple in price.
Hoosier Ag Today reports, "The biggest factor impacting the ability of US farmers to produce the food we need has nothing to do with the weather, the markets, trade, regulations, or disease. The worldwide shortage of computer chips will impact all aspects of agriculture for the next two years and beyond... farm equipment manufacturers have halted shipments to dealers because they don't have the chips to put in the equipment... not only have combine, planter, tillage, and tractor sales been impacted, but even ATV supplies are limited. Parts, even non-electric parts, are also in short supply because the manufacturers of those parts use the chips in the manufacturing process. As farmers integrate technology into all aspects of the farming process, these highly sophisticated semiconductors have become the backbone of almost every farming operation."
Just like not everyone may agree with me that chinese communists are not to be trusted.
Mtl JP 22:28:18 GMT - 05/18/2021
so us stocks did a somersault puke into the close
in board diving score: a 7
lets see how asia trades
dc CB 15:39:04 GMT - 05/18/2021
July Lumber on CME Limit DN again----
dc CB 15:36:46 GMT - 05/18/2021
Quoth the Raven
This is what happens you pay ransom
*COLONIAL SHIPPERS SAY PIPELINE COMMUNICATION SYSTEM IS DOWN
10:27 AM · May 18, 2021
PAR15:00:54 GMT - 05/18/2021
Time to buy S&P before Europe closes.
Mtl JP 14:29:27 GMT - 05/18/2021
just like chinese communists
WEF Cancels Singapore Meeting as Pandemic Haunts Global Event - bbrg
just because they are out of spotlight , or especially because they are out of spotlight, are not to be trusted.
Mtl JP 14:15:08 GMT - 05/18/2021
Not a fan of USD bid so looking for when dlr buyers will tame their enthusism or dis-appear altogether.
Odds of N of 1.2225 low.
maybe my "famous last words"
PAR14:12:03 GMT - 05/18/2021
Just trying to limit the ECB losses on its multitrillion bond holdings.
Mtl JP 13:52:02 GMT - 05/18/2021
N of 1.22 thnaks to players dumping the dollar, just like the FED gang wants
s/t Res around 1.2242
monkey see monkey do:
ECB's Villeroy plays down inflation risks, says ECB ... - Reuters
“As of today, there is no risk of a durable return of inflation in the euro zone and therefore, it goes without saying, there is no doubt that the monetary policy of the ECB will remain very accommodative,” Villeroy
lets go VOLATILITY !
Mtl JP 06:22:39 GMT - 05/18/2021
ding ding ding ding
time for yet another executive decision
Mtl JP 06:18:30 GMT - 05/18/2021
it is time
for an executive decisions
Mtl JP 01:21:47 GMT - 05/18/2021
puppy probably looking to tag Res 1.2180
above that 1.2242
On downside Sup in the 1.2125/00 zone
dc CB 00:41:39 GMT - 05/18/2021
leftist politics v Greeny Deal dreams.
watch SQM --(NYSE)
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile SA (SQM), the world's largest producer of lithium.
do your own research
Mtl JP 23:29:29 GMT - 05/17/2021
jounalists are masters at sensationalizing
they get paid for bringing in eyeball clicks
and details ... what details
dc CB 23:00:13 GMT - 05/17/2021
Mtl JP 22:13 GMT 05/17/2021
Another case of not reading 'the daily racing form'.
Burry also shorting .......
Mtl JP 22:13:02 GMT - 05/17/2021
Firm led by famed investor reveals short position on Tesla
Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla
Ok so journalists get eyeballs.
"famed investor" lays his ballz on the line.
others, not so famed invetsors, are now scratching theirs contemplating do I follow or not.
Mtl JP 17:53:01 GMT - 05/17/2021
At first rapid read I read "pets" as "pips"
similar to "sharks" eating stops
Bald eagles are back. And they want to eat your pets. - MarketWatch
Mtl JP 17:02:42 GMT - 05/17/2021
why only 7% with all the trillion$ booster support
why not to the moon ?
Mtl JP 16:51:31 GMT - 05/17/2021
helter skelter hallucinations
(Reuters) Fed's Clarida: U.S. growth could hit 7% this year
"It looks like the economy if anything can pick up speed this year...We could have growth north of 6%, possibly 7%," Current labor and supply bottlenecks, he said, are likely to pass, and evidence that "it may take more time to reopen a $20 trillion economy than it did to shut it down."
Mtl JP 16:47:38 GMT - 05/17/2021
PAR 14:38 that could be valuable tactical information
PAR14:38:52 GMT - 05/17/2021
Guess stocks will move higher once Europe is closed. Typical algorithmic
Mtl JP 14:34:50 GMT - 05/17/2021
stocks, sofar at least, not exactly enthusisatic about clarida "providing expert perspectives on emerging financial market issues and their monetary policy implications."
Mtl JP 14:27:53 GMT - 05/17/2021
IF u r inclined to listen to clarida and his sidekick
sitting comfortably in their chairs bubbling about
"Fostering a Resilient Economy and Financial System: The Role of Central Banks"
revolt. disobedience. disrespect. discredit. central banks
follow. or anticipate.
Bond Vigilantes Swarm European Economies Where Inflation Is Hot
"(Bloomberg Sun., May 16, 2021) -- Bond markets are famous for pushing their agenda, and in east Europe right now, they’re pushing for rate increases, never mind what central banks have to say on the matter.
Yields on bonds of Hungary and Poland are rising faster than anywhere else in Europe. Hungary’s jumped 32 basis points last week, signaling traders are primed for rate liftoff as inflation roars back to life ahead of widespread economic re-openings this summer." ... .
Mtl JP 00:29:08 GMT - 05/17/2021
ya I am biased: this puppy is heading into the toilet
Mtl JP 21:52:10 GMT - 05/16/2021
Colonial Pipeline says ‘normal operations’ have resumed following hack
Mtl JP 17:51:28 GMT - 05/14/2021
after 10am on Friday
trading against Knez
euro 1.2134 -> unlikely puppy will go much lower from here
S at 1.2130
Belgrade Knez 14:22:59 GMT - 05/14/2021
Entry: 1.214x Target: south Stop: 1.215x
Friday high at 1.2152..... probably will test that level and few pips above until/if goes down again
Mtl JP 14:13:11 GMT - 05/14/2021
SellEURUSD Entry: 1.214x Target: south Stop: 1.215x
those who needed to trade into the 10am time point are now likely done
Mtl JP 13:55:55 GMT - 05/14/2021
sub 1.2120/00 Sup puppy looks hungry for that previously pointed out 1.204x low, at least
Mtl JP 13:50:19 GMT - 05/14/2021
and stocks ?
eye-catching: decisive players / robots filling pockets
Mtl JP 13:12:18 GMT - 05/14/2021
flood of FED mushroom feeders with same "not to worry" formulation appears to have gained control over player schizzo emotions.
I maintain my nega-bias on the USD, just more prudently.
1:0 for the FED
has bullish overtone above its 100-day
close above 1.21 would support the bullishitude
Res at 1.2150/80, S 1.21 and ~1.2080
Mtl JP 11:16:50 GMT - 05/14/2021
and stocks ?
what will they do OR have they done their thing already
GVI Forex11:12:28 GMT - 05/14/2021
US yields slippoinmg, dollar following
dc CB 17:47:51 GMT - 05/13/2021
''horse that won the Kentucky Derby and then Failed '''
dc CB 17:46:33 GMT - 05/13/2021
the Preakness runs this Sat.
The horse that one the Kentucky Derby and the Failed the post race drug test.....Will be running.
Got to keep the Triple Crown 'hope' alive. Def can't void the chance after the first race.
as janet's department peddles off 27 billion worth of 30-yr bonds at 13:00, waller yaks about economy at same time, follows bullard at 16:00 on essentially same topic but also on policy outlook as if one mushroom feeding were not nuff
puppy looks like it needs an electroshock wallowing as it is just above its 100-day.
Sup at 1.20, Res 1.21 & 1.2150
Mtl JP 08:42:04 GMT - 05/13/2021
one more moRE "fear"-based profit opp trading headline:
"Inflation fears grip markets as European stocks and U.S. equity futures slide" - authored by none other than Barbara Kollmeyer
this kind of reporting is symptomatic
Mtl JP 08:27:55 GMT - 05/13/2021
10-yr 1.694 (spiki uppi)
DLRx 90.65 (also spiki uppi)
what some jounalists term "worries", some players see and play profit opportunities. headlines:
What does inflation mean for the stock market? It’s supposed to be a positive —but investors are spooked now
Inflation is climbing, but it isn’t blasting past its 30-year range — yet
Asian markets follow Wall Street lower as inflation worries mount
Bitcoin bulls on social media reject Musk’s reasoning for halting crypto-based car sales
Government reminds anxious gas customers: ‘Do not fill plastic bags with gasoline’ (dummy asks: why not? smart one says: it may mean you never get laid. ever)
Mtl JP 23:17:47 GMT - 05/12/2021
I have two questions.
Is the "it" transitory: y/n
What is good way to trade it: ___
(such as betting on risk off/on or that yields are going to fly higher)
Mtl JP 15:42:03 GMT - 05/12/2021
about CPI clarida communicates that:
"the rise in inflation is largely due to transitory factors. He speaks at a National Association for Business Economics virtual event." (Source: Bloomberg)
"is not concerned a coming expected rise in prices will persist, he said the accelerating recovery is not shifting the Fed’s commitment to keeping low interest rates and a $120 billion pace of monthly bond purchases until the labor market is fixed.
“Notwithstanding the recent flow of encouraging macroeconomic data, the economy remains a long way from our goals,” Clarida said. “It is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved.” via Reuters
Mtl JP 15:09:19 GMT - 05/12/2021
puppy overshot 1.2070 by only ~5pips
no dlr buyers usd, only sellers
Mtl JP 14:28:59 GMT - 05/12/2021
odds are 1.2070 will hold S on next appraoch
Mtl JP 14:22:36 GMT - 05/12/2021
PAR 07:36 - it is better to consider CPI, GDP, unemployement, inflation etc etc as just words - vocabulary - in a specialized language used to communicate amongst specific groups of folks such as policy-makers, economists, financial elite, speculators and opportunistic traders, politicians or peasants. Same sentence is not necessarily aimed at all groups with same intention of understanding.
GVI Forex13:51:25 GMT - 05/12/2021
US 10 year 1.675%, +5.1 bp
Mtl JP 10:15:07 GMT - 05/12/2021
huh what is this about ?
PAR07:36:34 GMT - 05/12/2021
CPI calculations are more modern arts than economics.
Nothing scientific about it.
An NFP-like surprise may not be excluded
Mtl JP 02:02:59 GMT - 05/12/2021
on deck: CPI
economists expecting +3.5%
Fed's Harker says
- 3% inflation is the maximum he would like to see
- it is 'premature' to talk about tapering asset purchases
Mtl JP 17:59:15 GMT - 05/11/2021
from moderate to ... de or hyper / inflationary ?
CNBC’s Steve Liesman reports on commentary from the Federal Reserve’s Brainard on the economic outlook.
sounds like an investment hint
Climate change means water and sewer utilities will need billion of upgrades over the next decade, report says - MarketWatch
cement, cement and plistic pipes and conduits, construction equipement, engineering firms ...etc
Mtl JP 16:03:55 GMT - 05/11/2021
just look at then (JP 15:11) and now
u a good bottom picker viies. like the teamwork
Mtl JP 15:11:47 GMT - 05/11/2021
viies --- u a buyer around here ?
Mtl JP 15:07:38 GMT - 05/11/2021
puppy's just a pain-in-donkey with its +/- ~30pip range around 1.2150
it's the DLR leg that needs to jolt in my optique
I just can't trade on some vaccination reports from europe vs us
Mtl JP 14:49:05 GMT - 05/11/2021
about this morn's stocks
down -> extends decline -> off -> skid lower
currently things not serious just yet as the moves are not anywhere near Babson Break (defined as ~ -3% decline)
Mtl JP 14:34:03 GMT - 05/11/2021
all mushroom feeders are voters
except harker and kashkari
haifa ac 14:33:22 GMT - 05/11/2021
Spx just punctured last week low-- dark clouds are gathering.
aerial combat between good and evil
Mtl JP 14:30:59 GMT - 05/11/2021
my suspision is players are trading the famous wall of worry
probably trying to discount CPI's massive price moves-uP
williams about to yak at bottom of hour
follows brainyard at noon
and bosti, harker and cashncarry in the aft
in case players should be getting wrong ideas
haifa ac 14:29:09 GMT - 05/11/2021
Nasdaq' Nikkei' Dax made today lower monthly low. I wonder why Tallinn viies did not mention this yet,
Mtl JP 14:22:33 GMT - 05/11/2021
what do they know
players sellind dlr, bond and stocks ahead of tom's CPI ?
Mtl JP 13:59:54 GMT - 05/11/2021
GVI Forex 10:16 - thky - looks like I did not clear my cache.
that would make it mea culpa.
1.620% or so still likely tolerable by "authorities", probably till 1.9-ish
as FED gang continues happily purchasing "minimum $120 billion/month"
GVI Forex10:16:31 GMT - 05/11/2021
JP, check your source for US bond yields. US 10 year is 1.611%
Mtl JP 09:56:09 GMT - 05/11/2021
Stocks fall across Europe and Nasdaq futures tumble 1%, as inflation concerns and selloff sentiment spread
10-yr 1.573% atm
more FED "mass communicators" on deck today
Mtl JP 09:28:20 GMT - 05/11/2021
do you get the impression that the FED and players are like a he says she says couple having communication issue ?
but divorce is not an option
(except for the crypto crowd. maybe)
Mtl JP 09:13:50 GMT - 05/11/2021
The Society of American Business Editors and Writers (SABEW) is an association of business journalists. Its headquarters is at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University in Phoenix, Ariz
mass communication ... mushroom farming
evans could not have chosen better venue.
next, soon should be clarida
Mtl JP 09:04:57 GMT - 05/11/2021
what more does the market need to know ?
charles 'substantial progress' evans:
several months of 1 million jobs added
more wage growth
Fed's Evans says employment and inflation need to pick up before policy changes
Wall Street Journal
Fed's Evans Says It Is Too Soon to Talk About Fed Aid Pullback
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials would like to see higher inflation, more wage growth and several months of strong employment gains averaging 1 million jobs added before they would consider adjusting monetary policy, Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday.
“We just want to be sure that monetary policy doesn’t get in the way of a vibrant labor market,” Evans said during a virtual conversation organized by the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing. “I think accommodative monetary policy will continue to be appropriate ... We’ve got, you know, some room to overshoot inflation.”
(Bloomberg Sun., May 9, 2021) -- The U.S. labor market remains in a “deep hole” and needs aggressive support to speed its healing from the Covid-19 pandemic, said Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari.
“We are still somewhere between 8 and 10 million jobs below where we were before the pandemic,” Kashkari said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” .../..
Yellen: I believe we will reach full employment in 2022
CNBC 2 days ago
Yellen: Biden's plan could restore full employment by 2022
Feb. 8, 2021
Mtl JP 09:01:25 GMT - 05/10/2021
Bond Traders See a Path to 2% Yields Lurking in U.S. Jobs Miss
"(Bloomberg) -- The prospect of a rebound to 2% yields on the world’s benchmark bond is alive and well.
Treasury-market bears found a deeper message within Friday’s weak employment report that’s emboldened a view that inflationary pressures are on the rise, and could boost rates to levels not seen since 2019." .../..
Mtl JP 08:45:28 GMT - 05/10/2021
ahead of NY
10-yr 1.577 (52 WEEK RANGE 0.502 - 1.778)
Mtl JP 08:28:21 GMT - 05/10/2021
but we all knew / know it.
(Bloomberg) -- Global central banks are starting to wind down the trillion-dollar money printing machines set in motion to rescue their economies in 2020. Getting ahead of them is becoming this year’s biggest currency trade.
because ... "Colonial Pipeline said Sunday that it was still developing a plan for restarting the nation’s largest fuel pipeline -- a critical source of supply for the New York region -- and would only bring it back when “safe to do so, and in full compliance with the approval of all federal regulations.” Gasoline futures surged by as much as 4.2% in early electronic trading on Sunday"...
currently 1.2050 seems to have repulsive characteristic.
DLRx popping uP off 90.70 should help cap euro
Mtl JP 22:28:48 GMT - 05/06/2021
sitting just abouve its S at 90.82 prev day low
staying alert and staying short
Mtl JP 22:10:59 GMT - 05/06/2021
so the next thing that comes to mind is ...
will asia ape the late surge
only the brave will find out
Mtl JP 22:05:46 GMT - 05/06/2021
I ll be darned - a catalyst
or someone decided nuff of waiting I believe jerome
Mtl JP 17:54:14 GMT - 05/06/2021
is another puppy stuck in a twilight range (50 pips worth)
Mtl JP 17:46:20 GMT - 05/06/2021
anyone want to take a stab:
BARRON'S - Volkswagen Profit Jumps and EV Sales Double. Why the Stock Is Falling
why indeed ?
Mtl JP 17:14:55 GMT - 05/06/2021
looks like the 100day 's got a solid grip on the puppy atm doesn't it
Mtl JP 08:48:47 GMT - 05/06/2021
eat this greta:
Biden Leans Into Plans to Tax the Rich
“We’re not going to deprive any of these executives of their second or third home, travel privately by jet,” the president said
Mtl JP 08:27:05 GMT - 05/06/2021
10-yr 1.582 (vs 1.573 overnite)
DLR down -> euro uP ...
simple as uno dos
"Relations sour further between China and Australia as Beijing suspends economic dialogue"
Not the first time CCP having behavioral trouble
Mtl JP 23:32:55 GMT - 05/05/2021
The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:
Initial jobless claims, week ended May 1: 538,000 expected vs. 553,000 during the prior week
Continuing claims, week ended April 24: 3.620 million expected vs. 3.660 million during the prior week
Mtl JP 22:18:19 GMT - 05/05/2021
10-yr 1.608 (+0.014)
a nebulous day about the dollar but
91.50 holding Res so far after 3 days of ~91.45
still holding nega-bias on the dlr
dc CB 19:58:11 GMT - 05/05/2021
COVID vaccine business, which Pfizer said just yesterday will likely be a "durable revenue stream" as COVID vaccines likely become an annual dose like the flu vaccine.
Will be 'deliberately patient' regarding inflation
More progress needed in job market before forward guidance conditions met
Not too concerned that inflation will get out of hand
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
― Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Rosengren says higher inflation will be as temporary as last year’s toilet-paper shortage
Mtl JP 15:10:24 GMT - 05/05/2021
goodi-good, 91.50 holds Res
evans (policy likely on hold for some time), rosengren (currently yakking) and mester (yet to yak at top of the hour) on economy and policy
Israel MacroMicro 13:14:24 GMT - 05/05/2021
Vienna GD 06:22 GMT May 5, 2021
the beauty of trading is thanks to different definitions by participants to the term PROCESS
all see the same, not all capable to see and ride the roadmap of the journey to see
Mtl JP 10:13:29 GMT - 05/05/2021
Dubai tapped to host Germany’s canceled Oktoberfest, upsetting some traditionalists
Mtl JP 08:26:55 GMT - 05/05/2021
DLRx 91.38, HoD 91.415
doom doom , doom doom ...
powell FED gang's independence credibility is on the line
Mtl JP 08:26:51 GMT - 05/05/2021
DLRx 91.38, HoD 91.415
doom doom , doom doom ...
powell FED gang's independence credibility is on the line
hk ab 06:30:55 GMT - 05/05/2021
GD//JIMVHO, fears are often "unexpected".
hk ab 06:30:55 GMT - 05/05/2021
GD//JIMVHO, fears are often "unexpected".
Vienna GD 06:30:01 GMT - 05/05/2021
and BTW a few indices are already close or already have met the minimum of 5%. But (highly) likely there is more to come (for most indices and also for PMs).
Of course in an orderly way. As everything is under control. So nothing to see, nothing to fear. As after that everything again to da moon.
For a while.
Vienna GD 06:22:51 GMT - 05/05/2021
Israel MacroMicro 17:44 GMT 05/04/2021
"Blow off top" and "5-15%" correction "into June" - READs somewhat different than what might happen thereafter (where BTW I also expect higher ATH across several assets) - NOT?
Have a nice day.
Mtl JP 22:53:52 GMT - 05/04/2021
Jay ... now that yellen has gone "trump" on powell
IF powell is not pissed with yellen, he needs to publicly come out - probably multiple times and in various forms - and say that he is pissed with her contrary meddling to what he and his minions have been clearly saying about QE and interest rates steadfastedly and over and over.
NY JM 22:05:01 GMT - 05/04/2021
Yellen tempered her comments and voiced the Fed’s inflation is transitory party line.
Mtl JP 18:02:44 GMT - 05/04/2021
so yellen's interest spew cost gold to lose $15.80 (nearly 1%)
I suppose the next "message" will be what they chose to print in next few CPI (4% ??) -- and how housing reacts. housing is probably the risk lynch pin. and inflation expectations
Israel MacroMicro 17:52:56 GMT - 05/04/2021
there must be a reason and someone got well served by CME raising the maximum size of positions that "institutional" are allowed to hold.
PAR17:48:37 GMT - 05/04/2021
Agree. Don't spoil the holidays of the super rich.
They all want to come to the South of France.
What did you expect.
Israel MacroMicro 17:44:35 GMT - 05/04/2021
that's all gloom and doom gurus can do?!
week or two and we may see for real how "blow off top" process happens, noticeable higher ATH with all indices before end of October of this year.
from there, trade with helmet on :)
gl / gt
Mtl JP 14:15:17 GMT - 05/04/2021
10-yr down -0.04 to 1.563
sofar stocks(down) saying not good nuff
PAR12:43:13 GMT - 05/04/2021
Biden is and always has been a Pentagon man. He is a bellicose president and only listens to his generals.
Biden = Lord of Wars
Israel MacroMicro 12:16:38 GMT - 05/04/2021
Chinese air-force jets feeling very comfortable about being inside Taiwanese air-space. S/T spike down (of few minutes ago) in risk or developing RISK OFF theme for few sessions.
new week, new month.
I don't expect the pop uP in DLR to have legs (i.e. N of 91.50)
EURO 1.2071 is prancing above its 100day w/next Res at 1.21
Sup in the 1.2015 / 1.1990 zone
Mtl JP 03:46:29 GMT - 05/03/2021
Puppy is sitting right on l/t Sup
It is a relatively low risk price point to trade either side (hold or break S) as one will know if the bet is winner or loser soon enuff - bar whipsaws.
Jkt Abel 00:54:47 GMT - 05/03/2021
JP, do you see loonie at 1.18-1.20xxx as attractive enough for long play?
Mtl JP 00:46:52 GMT - 05/03/2021
heeerrre pigeons .... over heeerre ...
..."The Honest Company (HNST) is looking to raise as much as $439M in an IPO next week that could give co-founder Jessica Alba a stake valued at about $96M. Jessica Alba (Honest Company (HNST)) - doesn't plan to sell any of her shares. them in the offering, according to the filing. The Los Angeles-based company had a net loss of $14.5M on revenue of $301M in 2020, compared with a loss of $31M on revenue of $236M the previous year."... - seekingalpha
Mtl JP 18:05:52 GMT - 04/30/2021
euro needs to hold S 2018
else ... lights will go out
Mtl JP 15:36:11 GMT - 04/30/2021
10-yr 1.636, near its day's low
sometimes ... dlr and yield do not correlate
Mtl JP 15:01:06 GMT - 04/30/2021
Fib Sup & Trgt ... BINGO !
Belgrade Knez 09:39:43 GMT - 04/30/2021
absolutely, just sharing different levels so it might be useful
Mtl JP 09:35:10 GMT - 04/30/2021
Knez how we die is a function of the poison we chose *V^
Belgrade Knez 09:31:16 GMT - 04/30/2021
Mtl JP 08:38 GMT April 30, 2021
to calculate fib on daily eu I am using 1.23439 - 1.17041
hence fib support on my chart bit different.....
Mtl JP 08:38:34 GMT - 04/30/2021
ahead of last NY session of the month
10-yr 1.656% (ie. below its recent hight)
DLRx 90.74 - uP off its yesty 90.38 low)
Euro Sup / Trgt at 61% Fib - c chart
dc CB 20:15:11 GMT - 04/29/2021
'say no more, wink wink. say no more'
PAR17:33:17 GMT - 04/29/2021
Next month US rates to go negative?
dc CB 17:07:20 GMT - 04/29/2021
The Treasury just sold $40BN in 4-week bills at a price of 100.000% representing a rate of 0.00%.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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