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hk ab  13:59:43 GMT - 04/29/2021  
when radio+TV+taxi-drivers tell u to go for stox, you know what to do.

The boat is too tilted and for too long.....


Mtl JP  16:04:22 GMT - 04/29/2021  
apparently
"12:00 The resurgent U.S. economy grew 6.4% in first quarter and even faster growth lies ahead" - MarketWatch


Mtl JP  16:32:29 GMT - 04/29/2021  
legalese , subpeona , (non / encrypted email
-
using email or textos ... that can

be subpoeaned



dc CB  17:07:20 GMT - 04/29/2021  
The Treasury just sold $40BN in 4-week bills at a price of 100.000% representing a rate of 0.00%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-sells-treasury-bills-0-first-time-covid-crash


PAR 17:33:17 GMT - 04/29/2021  
Next month US rates to go negative?


dc CB  20:15:11 GMT - 04/29/2021  
 
'say no more, wink wink. say no more'
Monty Python


Mtl JP  08:38:34 GMT - 04/30/2021  
 
ahead of last NY session of the month
-
10-yr 1.656% (ie. below its recent hight)
DLRx 90.74 - uP off its yesty 90.38 low)

Euro Sup / Trgt at 61% Fib - c chart


Belgrade Knez  09:31:16 GMT - 04/30/2021  
Mtl JP 08:38 GMT April 30, 2021

to calculate fib on daily eu I am using 1.23439 - 1.17041
hence fib support on my chart bit different.....



Mtl JP  09:35:10 GMT - 04/30/2021  
Knez how we die is a function of the poison we chose *V^


Belgrade Knez  09:39:43 GMT - 04/30/2021  
JP,
absolutely, just sharing different levels so it might be useful


Mtl JP  15:01:06 GMT - 04/30/2021  
 
EURO 1.2039
-
Fib Sup & Trgt ... BINGO !


Mtl JP  15:36:11 GMT - 04/30/2021  
10-yr 1.636, near its day's low
-
sometimes ... dlr and yield do not correlate


Mtl JP  18:05:52 GMT - 04/30/2021  
euro needs to hold S 2018
else ... lights will go out


Mtl JP  00:46:52 GMT - 05/03/2021  
heeerrre pigeons .... over heeerre ...
-
..."The Honest Company (HNST) is looking to raise as much as $439M in an IPO next week that could give co-founder Jessica Alba a stake valued at about $96M. Jessica Alba (Honest Company (HNST)) - doesn't plan to sell any of her shares. them in the offering, according to the filing. The Los Angeles-based company had a net loss of $14.5M on revenue of $301M in 2020, compared with a loss of $31M on revenue of $236M the previous year."... - seekingalpha


Jkt Abel  00:54:47 GMT - 05/03/2021  
JP, do you see loonie at 1.18-1.20xxx as attractive enough for long play?


Mtl JP  03:46:29 GMT - 05/03/2021  
 
USDCAD 1.23
steep trend
-
Puppy is sitting right on l/t Sup
It is a relatively low risk price point to trade either side (hold or break S) as one will know if the bet is winner or loser soon enuff - bar whipsaws.


Mtl JP  14:20:39 GMT - 05/03/2021  
10-yr 1.606
DLRx 90.90
-
new week, new month.
I don't expect the pop uP in DLR to have legs (i.e. N of 91.50)

EURO 1.2071 is prancing above its 100day w/next Res at 1.21
Sup in the 1.2015 / 1.1990 zone


GVI Forex 15:49:41 GMT - 05/03/2021  
As postedCorrekation
GVI Forex 15:30 GMT 05/03/2021 - My Profile
FX and US yields correlating

Yields just popped and files moved higher
on the AT Forum

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  16:05:40 GMT - 05/03/2021  
some headlines
no specific trade suggestion
-
10:38 The stock market is ‘inching toward euphoria’, warn analysts at BofA

10:34 Why giving felons a second chance is the key to economic prosperity for America - too bad madeof is poof, ya

10:29 ‘Crazy’ prices and rampant shortages frustrate U.S manufacturers, ISM shows probably not high nuff yet; only sufficiently high self-correct. sooo more ... higher
-- MarketWatch


Israel MacroMicro  16:46:47 GMT - 05/03/2021  
for the current week, all is depends on single simple level. USD/JPY 110.50


bye
Ahmed


Mtl JP  17:46:24 GMT - 05/03/2021  
oxymoron: one expert speculates
-
By Mark DeCambre:
Can Ethereum prices hit $5,000 in a week? That’s what one crypto expert speculates as Ether mints records

Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group



Israel MacroMicro  19:11:20 GMT - 05/03/2021  
USD/CAD: whenever EOD > 1.2310 it may mean 210/250 pips uP mover from there using fast lane.


Mtl JP  07:05:17 GMT - 05/04/2021  
EURO 1.2013
-
Smack on Sup atm
break would trgt 1.2012/00


Mtl JP  07:14:37 GMT - 05/04/2021  
EURO 1.2013 -> 1.2031


kl fs  07:21:40 GMT - 05/04/2021  
JP, where is the resistance for euro do you think today? 12040 can cap for lower?


Mtl JP  07:49:21 GMT - 05/04/2021  
EURO 1.2010/00 ...
bingo !

DLRx 91.33 high
I am nega biased on DLR, 91.50 Res



Mtl JP  07:52:50 GMT - 05/04/2021  
fs 07:21 I am using the 100day


Mtl JP  09:03:24 GMT - 05/04/2021  
EURO another try at 1.20

DLRx Res zone 91.36/91.40 ahead of my 91.50


Mtl JP  09:18:24 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Aaaach hhhh ....
Germany's Oktoberfest canceled again in 2021 due to coronavirus - DW

Is that optimism looking 6 months out ?


Mtl JP  09:48:57 GMT - 05/04/2021  
ahead on NY
10-yr 1.621%


Israel MacroMicro  12:16:38 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Chinese air-force jets feeling very comfortable about being inside Taiwanese air-space. S/T spike down (of few minutes ago) in risk or developing RISK OFF theme for few sessions.


PAR 12:43:13 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Israel

Biden is and always has been a Pentagon man. He is a bellicose president and only listens to his generals.

Biden = Lord of Wars


Mtl JP  14:15:17 GMT - 05/04/2021  
10-yr down -0.04 to 1.563
sofar stocks(down) saying not good nuff


Israel MacroMicro  17:44:35 GMT - 05/04/2021  
that's all gloom and doom gurus can do?!

week or two and we may see for real how "blow off top" process happens, noticeable higher ATH with all indices before end of October of this year.

from there, trade with helmet on :)

gl / gt



PAR 17:48:37 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Israël

Agree. Don't spoil the holidays of the super rich.
They all want to come to the South of France.

What did you expect.


Israel MacroMicro  17:52:56 GMT - 05/04/2021  
there must be a reason and someone got well served by CME raising the maximum size of positions that "institutional" are allowed to hold.

FWIW


Mtl JP  18:02:44 GMT - 05/04/2021  
so yellen's interest spew cost gold to lose $15.80 (nearly 1%)

I suppose the next "message" will be what they chose to print in next few CPI (4% ??) -- and how housing reacts. housing is probably the risk lynch pin. and inflation expectations


NY JM  22:05:01 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Yellen tempered her comments and voiced the Fed’s inflation is transitory party line.


Mtl JP  22:53:52 GMT - 05/04/2021  
Jay ... now that yellen has gone "trump" on powell
IF powell is not pissed with yellen, he needs to publicly come out - probably multiple times and in various forms - and say that he is pissed with her contrary meddling to what he and his minions have been clearly saying about QE and interest rates steadfastedly and over and over.


Vienna GD  06:22:51 GMT - 05/05/2021  
Israel MacroMicro 17:44 GMT 05/04/2021

"Blow off top" and "5-15%" correction "into June" - READs somewhat different than what might happen thereafter (where BTW I also expect higher ATH across several assets) - NOT?

Have a nice day.


Vienna GD  06:30:01 GMT - 05/05/2021  
and BTW a few indices are already close or already have met the minimum of 5%. But (highly) likely there is more to come (for most indices and also for PMs).

Of course in an orderly way. As everything is under control. So nothing to see, nothing to fear. As after that everything again to da moon.
For a while.


hk ab  06:30:55 GMT - 05/05/2021  
GD//JIMVHO, fears are often "unexpected".


hk ab  06:30:55 GMT - 05/05/2021  
GD//JIMVHO, fears are often "unexpected".


Mtl JP  08:26:51 GMT - 05/05/2021  
 
DLRx 91.38, HoD 91.415
doom doom , doom doom ...

powell FED gang's independence credibility is on the line


Mtl JP  08:26:55 GMT - 05/05/2021  
 
DLRx 91.38, HoD 91.415
doom doom , doom doom ...

powell FED gang's independence credibility is on the line


Mtl JP  10:13:29 GMT - 05/05/2021  
..... ****......
-
Dubai tapped to host Germany’s canceled Oktoberfest, upsetting some traditionalists

****.....****


Israel MacroMicro  13:14:24 GMT - 05/05/2021  
Vienna GD 06:22 GMT May 5, 2021

the beauty of trading is thanks to different definitions by participants to the term PROCESS

all see the same, not all capable to see and ride the roadmap of the journey to see


Mtl JP  15:10:24 GMT - 05/05/2021  
DLRx 91.23
-
goodi-good, 91.50 holds Res

evans (policy likely on hold for some time), rosengren (currently yakking) and mester (yet to yak at top of the hour) on economy and policy




Mtl JP  16:49:10 GMT - 05/05/2021  
DLRx 91.30
-
Rosengren says higher inflation will be as temporary as last year’s toilet-paper shortage


Mtl JP  16:52:34 GMT - 05/05/2021  

Ruling negates program that has helped millions of tenants who have fallen behind on rent during the coronavirus pandemic

Federal Judge Invalidates National Eviction Moratorium - wsj



Mtl JP  16:55:43 GMT - 05/05/2021  
Rosengren says it is 'premature to focus' on tapering


Mtl JP  17:01:45 GMT - 05/05/2021  
same old same old ....
bad managers: what would they be without fiat ?
-
WSJ - Treasury (that is janet's departement) Urges Congress to Raise Debt Ceiling This Summer

The federal government could run out of cash much sooner than in previous debt-limit episodes, officials say.


Mtl JP  17:12:17 GMT - 05/05/2021  
GBPUSD 1.3900
-
Bank of England Expected

to Send Tapering Signal



Mtl JP  17:23:18 GMT - 05/05/2021  
cohesion from the yakkers:

Mester:
Will be 'deliberately patient' regarding inflation

More progress needed in job market before forward guidance conditions met

Not too concerned that inflation will get out of hand

***
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
― Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds


dc CB  19:58:11 GMT - 05/05/2021  
COVID vaccine business, which Pfizer said just yesterday will likely be a "durable revenue stream" as COVID vaccines likely become an annual dose like the flu vaccine.

OOOPS
__________________________________

Stocks Tumble As White House Backs WTO Plan To Waive IP Protections For COVID Vaccines



Mtl JP  22:18:19 GMT - 05/05/2021  
DLRx. 91.22
10-yr 1.608 (+0.014)
-
a nebulous day about the dollar but
91.50 holding Res so far after 3 days of ~91.45
still holding nega-bias on the dlr


Mtl JP  23:32:55 GMT - 05/05/2021  
The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended May 1: 538,000 expected vs. 553,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended April 24: 3.620 million expected vs. 3.660 million during the prior week


Mtl JP  08:27:05 GMT - 05/06/2021  
10-yr 1.582 (vs 1.573 overnite)
USDx 91.09
-
DLR down -> euro uP ...
simple as uno dos


********
"Relations sour further between China and Australia as Beijing suspends economic dialogue"

Not the first time CCP having behavioral trouble


Mtl JP  08:48:47 GMT - 05/06/2021  
eat this greta:
-
Biden Leans Into Plans to Tax the Rich
“We’re not going to deprive any of these executives of their second or third home, travel privately by jet,” the president said
- NYT


Mtl JP  17:14:55 GMT - 05/06/2021  
EURO 1.2050
-
looks like the 100day 's got a solid grip on the puppy atm doesn't it


Mtl JP  17:46:20 GMT - 05/06/2021  
anyone want to take a stab:

BARRON'S - Volkswagen Profit Jumps and EV Sales Double. Why the Stock Is Falling

why indeed ?


Mtl JP  17:54:14 GMT - 05/06/2021  
GBPUSD 1.3890
-
is another puppy stuck in a twilight range (50 pips worth)


Mtl JP  22:05:46 GMT - 05/06/2021  
 
I ll be darned - a catalyst
or someone decided nuff of waiting I believe jerome


Mtl JP  22:10:59 GMT - 05/06/2021  
 
so the next thing that comes to mind is ...
will asia ape the late surge
only the brave will find out


Mtl JP  22:28:48 GMT - 05/06/2021  
 
DLRx 90.86
sitting just abouve its S at 90.82 prev day low
staying alert and staying short


Mtl JP  07:27:11 GMT - 05/07/2021  
EURO 1.2080-ish
-
currently 1.2050 seems to have repulsive characteristic.
DLRx popping uP off 90.70 should help cap euro


Mtl JP  10:13:31 GMT - 05/07/2021  
...musk's "lucky people"...
-
If you see a video after clicking the link, you are one of the 30 lucky people who will get to try the software for free.”

Musk’s new innovation is meant to give financial freedom to the common people



Mtl JP  14:40:50 GMT - 05/07/2021  
 
what was that nfp print again ?
-
looks like not many employers eager to pay $15+/hr


Mtl JP  14:55:05 GMT - 05/07/2021  
10-yr 1.547% (off 1.489 low)
-
EURO 1.2140
high for the day against 1.2150 Res already likely in

on the downside is that by now famous 100-day Sup
should be good trgt for the "smart" ones next

with that crappy nfp print vs expectations - i.e. a "surprise !" - for now the score is: jerome 1 : janet 0


Mtl JP  15:08:37 GMT - 05/07/2021  
USDCAD 1.2145
- decisive push under 1.2150 ---> see 75/85 nega-pips pronto


Mtl JP  15:17:47 GMT - 05/07/2021  
euro 1.2147
- sharks trying to take out s/l around 1.2150
-- courageous types re-loading short on the pop

lets c who laughs last


Mtl JP  15:23:06 GMT - 05/07/2021  
euro 1.2150
-
looking for tradecalls w/ballz


dc CB  18:14:20 GMT - 05/07/2021  
nobody goes to the track anymore

Tips-R-Us



Mtl JP  17:42:35 GMT - 05/08/2021  
some weekend reads
-
Bloomberg
Fed Warns of Peril for Asset Prices as Investors Gorge on Risk

Investors Prepare Taper Tantrum Plan as Fed Demurs On Timing

U.S. Consumer Borrowing Rose More Than Forecast in March

Traders Ramp Up Bets on a Hawkish Fed Surprise at Jackson Hole

Europe’s Banks Cash In on Lagarde’s Billion-Euro Loan Sweetener


Mtl JP  22:47:05 GMT - 05/09/2021  
GAP
why ?
-
because ... "Colonial Pipeline said Sunday that it was still developing a plan for restarting the nation’s largest fuel pipeline -- a critical source of supply for the New York region -- and would only bring it back when “safe to do so, and in full compliance with the approval of all federal regulations.” Gasoline futures surged by as much as 4.2% in early electronic trading on Sunday"...

all that is mising is ___ for $3 per


Mtl JP  08:28:21 GMT - 05/10/2021  
but we all knew / know it.
right ?
-
(Bloomberg) -- Global central banks are starting to wind down the trillion-dollar money printing machines set in motion to rescue their economies in 2020. Getting ahead of them is becoming this year’s biggest currency trade.

Global Race to Tapering Ignites Hunt for Next Currency Winners



Mtl JP  08:45:28 GMT - 05/10/2021  
 
ahead of NY
pulse:
-
10-yr 1.577 (52 WEEK RANGE 0.502 - 1.778)
DLRx 90.10


Mtl JP  09:01:25 GMT - 05/10/2021  
fwiw:

Bond Traders See a Path to 2% Yields Lurking in U.S. Jobs Miss

"(Bloomberg) -- The prospect of a rebound to 2% yields on the world’s benchmark bond is alive and well.

Treasury-market bears found a deeper message within Friday’s weak employment report that’s emboldened a view that inflationary pressures are on the rise, and could boost rates to levels not seen since 2019." .../..



Mtl JP  09:59:20 GMT - 05/10/2021  
(Bloomberg Sun., May 9, 2021) -- The U.S. labor market remains in a “deep hole” and needs aggressive support to speed its healing from the Covid-19 pandemic, said Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari.

“We are still somewhere between 8 and 10 million jobs below where we were before the pandemic,” Kashkari said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” .../..

Yellen: I believe we will reach full employment in 2022
CNBC 2 days ago

Yellen: Biden's plan could restore full employment by 2022
Feb. 8, 2021


GVI Forex 12:55:16 GMT - 05/10/2021  
As posted on the AT Forum

Monday
GVI Forex 12:24 GMT 05/10/2021 - My Profile
To state the obvious, it has so far been a EURGBP sell order driven day.

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  14:28:27 GMT - 05/10/2021  
DLRx 90.04
10-yr 1.565%
-
at 2pm NYT evans will be feeding the mushrooms
with something he calls "economic outlook"
-
EURO 1.2164
s/t S 1.2140/35 bit more out 1.21
Res 1.22


Mtl JP  09:04:57 GMT - 05/11/2021  
what more does the market need to know ?

charles 'substantial progress' evans:
several months of 1 million jobs added
more wage growth
higher inflation

CNBC
Fed's Evans says employment and inflation need to pick up before policy changes

Wall Street Journal
Fed's Evans Says It Is Too Soon to Talk About Fed Aid Pullback


(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials would like to see higher inflation, more wage growth and several months of strong employment gains averaging 1 million jobs added before they would consider adjusting monetary policy, Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday.

“We just want to be sure that monetary policy doesn’t get in the way of a vibrant labor market,” Evans said during a virtual conversation organized by the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing. “I think accommodative monetary policy will continue to be appropriate ... We’ve got, you know, some room to overshoot inflation.”

Fed's Evans: Accommodative monetary policy will continue to be appropriate



Mtl JP  09:13:50 GMT - 05/11/2021  
The Society of American Business Editors and Writers (SABEW) is an association of business journalists. Its headquarters is at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University in Phoenix, Ariz

mass communication ... mushroom farming

evans could not have chosen better venue.
next, soon should be clarida


Mtl JP  09:28:20 GMT - 05/11/2021  
do you get the impression that the FED and players are like a he says she says couple having communication issue ?

but divorce is not an option
(except for the crypto crowd. maybe)


Mtl JP  09:56:09 GMT - 05/11/2021  
sherlock says
-
Stocks fall across Europe and Nasdaq futures tumble 1%, as inflation concerns and selloff sentiment spread
- MarketWatch

10-yr 1.573% atm

more FED "mass communicators" on deck today


GVI Forex 10:16:31 GMT - 05/11/2021  
JP, check your source for US bond yields. US 10 year is 1.611%


Mtl JP  13:59:54 GMT - 05/11/2021  
GVI Forex 10:16 - thky - looks like I did not clear my cache.
that would make it mea culpa.
-
1.620% or so still likely tolerable by "authorities", probably till 1.9-ish
as FED gang continues happily purchasing "minimum $120 billion/month"


Mtl JP  14:22:33 GMT - 05/11/2021  
what do they know
-
players sellind dlr, bond and stocks ahead of tom's CPI ?


haifa ac  14:29:09 GMT - 05/11/2021  
Nasdaq' Nikkei' Dax made today lower monthly low. I wonder why Tallinn viies did not mention this yet,


Mtl JP  14:30:59 GMT - 05/11/2021  
my suspision is players are trading the famous wall of worry
probably trying to discount CPI's massive price moves-uP

williams about to yak at bottom of hour
follows brainyard at noon
and bosti, harker and cashncarry in the aft

in case players should be getting wrong ideas


haifa ac  14:33:22 GMT - 05/11/2021  
Spx just punctured last week low-- dark clouds are gathering.

aerial combat between good and evil


Mtl JP  14:34:03 GMT - 05/11/2021  
all mushroom feeders are voters
except harker and kashkari


Mtl JP  14:49:05 GMT - 05/11/2021  
communication evolution
about this morn's stocks
-
down -> extends decline -> off -> skid lower

currently things not serious just yet as the moves are not anywhere near Babson Break (defined as ~ -3% decline)


Mtl JP  15:07:38 GMT - 05/11/2021  
EURO 1.2159
-
puppy's just a pain-in-donkey with its +/- ~30pip range around 1.2150

it's the DLR leg that needs to jolt in my optique
I just can't trade on some vaccination reports from europe vs us


Mtl JP  15:11:47 GMT - 05/11/2021  
 
viies --- u a buyer around here ?


Mtl JP  16:03:55 GMT - 05/11/2021  
 
just look at then (JP 15:11) and now

u a good bottom picker viies. like the teamwork


Mtl JP  17:35:36 GMT - 05/11/2021  
sounds like an investment hint
-
Climate change means water and sewer utilities will need billion of upgrades over the next decade, report says - MarketWatch

cement, cement and plistic pipes and conduits, construction equipement, engineering firms ...etc


Mtl JP  17:59:15 GMT - 05/11/2021  
transitory
from moderate to ... de or hyper / inflationary ?
-
CNBC’s Steve Liesman reports on commentary from the Federal Reserve’s Brainard on the economic outlook.

Fed’s Brainard says there are reasons to believe the increase in inflation is transitory



Mtl JP  02:02:59 GMT - 05/12/2021  
on deck: CPI
10-yr 1.629%
-
economists expecting +3.5%
***
Fed's Harker says
- 3% inflation is the maximum he would like to see
- it is 'premature' to talk about tapering asset purchases


PAR 07:36:34 GMT - 05/12/2021  
CPI calculations are more modern arts than economics.

Nothing scientific about it.

An NFP-like surprise may not be excluded


Mtl JP  10:15:07 GMT - 05/12/2021  
 
huh what is this about ?


GVI Forex 13:51:25 GMT - 05/12/2021  
US 10 year 1.675%, +5.1 bp


Mtl JP  14:22:36 GMT - 05/12/2021  
PAR 07:36 - it is better to consider CPI, GDP, unemployement, inflation etc etc as just words - vocabulary - in a specialized language used to communicate amongst specific groups of folks such as policy-makers, economists, financial elite, speculators and opportunistic traders, politicians or peasants. Same sentence is not necessarily aimed at all groups with same intention of understanding.


Mtl JP  14:28:59 GMT - 05/12/2021  
EURO 1.2085ish
-
odds are 1.2070 will hold S on next appraoch


Mtl JP  15:09:19 GMT - 05/12/2021  
 
EURO 1.2080
-
puppy overshot 1.2070 by only ~5pips
no dlr buyers usd, only sellers


Mtl JP  15:42:03 GMT - 05/12/2021  
about CPI clarida communicates that:
-
"the rise in inflation is largely due to transitory factors. He speaks at a National Association for Business Economics virtual event." (Source: Bloomberg)

"is not concerned a coming expected rise in prices will persist, he said the accelerating recovery is not shifting the Fed’s commitment to keeping low interest rates and a $120 billion pace of monthly bond purchases until the labor market is fixed.

“Notwithstanding the recent flow of encouraging macroeconomic data, the economy remains a long way from our goals,” Clarida said. “It is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved.” via Reuters


Mtl JP  23:17:47 GMT - 05/12/2021  
I have two questions.
-
Is the "it" transitory: y/n

What is good way to trade it: ___

(such as betting on risk off/on or that yields are going to fly higher)

TIA!


Mtl JP  08:27:55 GMT - 05/13/2021  
 
10-yr 1.694 (spiki uppi)
DLRx 90.65 (also spiki uppi)
what some jounalists term "worries", some players see and play profit opportunities. headlines:
-
What does inflation mean for the stock market? It’s supposed to be a positive —but investors are spooked now

Inflation is climbing, but it isn’t blasting past its 30-year range — yet

Asian markets follow Wall Street lower as inflation worries mount
*****
Bitcoin bulls on social media reject Musk’s reasoning for halting crypto-based car sales

Government reminds anxious gas customers: ‘Do not fill plastic bags with gasoline’ (dummy asks: why not? smart one says: it may mean you never get laid. ever)


Mtl JP  08:42:04 GMT - 05/13/2021  
one more moRE "fear"-based profit opp trading headline:
-
"Inflation fears grip markets as European stocks and U.S. equity futures slide" - authored by none other than Barbara Kollmeyer

this kind of reporting is symptomatic


Mtl JP  15:35:31 GMT - 05/13/2021  
as janet's department peddles off 27 billion worth of 30-yr bonds at 13:00, waller yaks about economy at same time, follows bullard at 16:00 on essentially same topic but also on policy outlook as if one mushroom feeding were not nuff

**

EURUSD 1.2070
-
puppy looks like it needs an electroshock wallowing as it is just above its 100-day.
Sup at 1.20, Res 1.21 & 1.2150


dc CB  17:40:56 GMT - 05/13/2021  
 
When genius? fails

Genie



dc CB  17:46:33 GMT - 05/13/2021  
the Preakness runs this Sat.
The horse that one the Kentucky Derby and the Failed the post race drug test.....Will be running.

Got to keep the Triple Crown 'hope' alive. Def can't void the chance after the first race.

very similar to SToX


dc CB  17:47:51 GMT - 05/13/2021  
''horse that won the Kentucky Derby and then Failed '''


GVI Forex 11:12:28 GMT - 05/14/2021  
US yields slippoinmg, dollar following


Mtl JP  11:16:50 GMT - 05/14/2021  
and stocks ?
what will they do OR have they done their thing already


Mtl JP  13:12:18 GMT - 05/14/2021  
 
DLRx 90.38
-
flood of FED mushroom feeders with same "not to worry" formulation appears to have gained control over player schizzo emotions.
I maintain my nega-bias on the USD, just more prudently.
1:0 for the FED

***
EURO 1.213x
has bullish overtone above its 100-day
close above 1.21 would support the bullishitude
Res at 1.2150/80, S 1.21 and ~1.2080


Mtl JP  13:50:19 GMT - 05/14/2021  
 
and stocks ?
eye-catching: decisive players / robots filling pockets


Mtl JP  13:55:55 GMT - 05/14/2021  
USDCAD 1.208x
-
sub 1.2120/00 Sup puppy looks hungry for that previously pointed out 1.204x low, at least


Mtl JP  14:13:11 GMT - 05/14/2021  

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.214x Target: south Stop: 1.215x
10am
those who needed to trade into the 10am time point are now likely done


Belgrade Knez  14:22:59 GMT - 05/14/2021  
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.214x Target: south Stop: 1.215x
-------------------------------------------------
Friday high at 1.2152..... probably will test that level and few pips above until/if goes down again


Mtl JP  17:51:28 GMT - 05/14/2021  
after 10am on Friday
trading against Knez
-
euro 1.2134 -> unlikely puppy will go much lower from here
S at 1.2130

avagoodonemeout


Mtl JP  21:52:10 GMT - 05/16/2021  
Colonial Pipeline says ‘normal operations’ have resumed following hack


Mtl JP  00:29:08 GMT - 05/17/2021  
 
10-yr 1.634%
-
DLRx 90.355
ya I am biased: this puppy is heading into the toilet


Mtl JP  08:18:56 GMT - 05/17/2021  
revolt. disobedience. disrespect. discredit. central banks
follow. or anticipate.
-
Bond Vigilantes Swarm European Economies Where Inflation Is Hot

"(Bloomberg Sun., May 16, 2021) -- Bond markets are famous for pushing their agenda, and in east Europe right now, they’re pushing for rate increases, never mind what central banks have to say on the matter.

Yields on bonds of Hungary and Poland are rising faster than anywhere else in Europe. Hungary’s jumped 32 basis points last week, signaling traders are primed for rate liftoff as inflation roars back to life ahead of widespread economic re-openings this summer." ... .


Mtl JP  09:20:17 GMT - 05/17/2021  
..."bragging about the car driving unaided" ...
-
no more.
darwin rules

Tesla driver killed in crash posted videos of himself driving hands-free



Mtl JP  09:59:42 GMT - 05/17/2021  
 
duh ! asia no like covid vaccination prospects ?


Vienna GD  10:35:47 GMT - 05/17/2021  
Mtl JP 09:59 GMT 05/17/2021

JP - that, just like the recent BT rout - is just nothing else but a straight and really really rare once in a lifetime opportunity to get back into the supercycle sky wave!

And boy - eventually you even can meet a Tesla and Musk on the moon! Waoh I have no words left.


Mtl JP  14:21:27 GMT - 05/17/2021  
DLRx 90.25
-
no demand , just no demand for the old buck
just as Clarida and Bostic are about to start their
mushroom feeding at bottom of hour


Mtl JP  14:27:53 GMT - 05/17/2021  
IF u r inclined to listen to clarida and his sidekick
sitting comfortably in their chairs bubbling about

"Fostering a Resilient Economy and Financial System: The Role of Central Banks"

clarida and sideckick live



Mtl JP  14:34:50 GMT - 05/17/2021  
stocks, sofar at least, not exactly enthusisatic about clarida "providing expert perspectives on emerging financial market issues and their monetary policy implications."


PAR 14:38:52 GMT - 05/17/2021  
Guess stocks will move higher once Europe is closed. Typical algorithmic
scenario.


Mtl JP  16:47:38 GMT - 05/17/2021  
PAR 14:38 that could be valuable tactical information


Mtl JP  16:51:31 GMT - 05/17/2021  
helter skelter hallucinations
from clarida
-
(Reuters) Fed's Clarida: U.S. growth could hit 7% this year

"It looks like the economy if anything can pick up speed this year...We could have growth north of 6%, possibly 7%," Current labor and supply bottlenecks, he said, are likely to pass, and evidence that "it may take more time to reopen a $20 trillion economy than it did to shut it down."


Mtl JP  17:02:42 GMT - 05/17/2021  
why only 7% with all the trillion$ booster support
why not to the moon ?


Mtl JP  17:53:01 GMT - 05/17/2021  
At first rapid read I read "pets" as "pips"
similar to "sharks" eating stops
-
Bald eagles are back. And they want to eat your pets. - MarketWatch



Mtl JP  22:13:02 GMT - 05/17/2021  
"famed investor"
-
Reuters
Firm led by famed investor reveals short position on Tesla

CNBC
Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla

***
Ok so journalists get eyeballs.
"famed investor" lays his ballz on the line.

others, not so famed invetsors, are now scratching theirs contemplating do I follow or not.


dc CB  23:00:13 GMT - 05/17/2021  
 
Mtl JP 22:13 GMT 05/17/2021
"famed investor"

Another case of not reading 'the daily racing form'.
Burry also shorting .......


Mtl JP  23:29:29 GMT - 05/17/2021  
jounalists are masters at sensationalizing
they get paid for bringing in eyeball clicks
and details ... what details


dc CB  00:41:39 GMT - 05/18/2021  
leftist politics v Greeny Deal dreams.
watch SQM --(NYSE)

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile SA (SQM), the world's largest producer of lithium.
do your own research


Mtl JP  01:21:47 GMT - 05/18/2021  
EURO 1.216X
-
puppy probably looking to tag Res 1.2180
above that 1.2242

On downside Sup in the 1.2125/00 zone


Mtl JP  06:18:30 GMT - 05/18/2021  
 
DLRx 89.975
-
it is time


for an executive decisions


Mtl JP  06:22:39 GMT - 05/18/2021  
 
EURO 1.2180
-
ding ding ding ding

time for yet another executive decision


Mtl JP  13:52:02 GMT - 05/18/2021  
EURO 1.2215
-
N of 1.22 thnaks to players dumping the dollar, just like the FED gang wants

s/t Res around 1.2242

monkey see monkey do:
ECB's Villeroy plays down inflation risks, says ECB ... - Reuters
“As of today, there is no risk of a durable return of inflation in the euro zone and therefore, it goes without saying, there is no doubt that the monetary policy of the ECB will remain very accommodative,” Villeroy

lets go VOLATILITY !


PAR 14:12:03 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Just trying to limit the ECB losses on its multitrillion bond holdings.


Mtl JP  14:15:08 GMT - 05/18/2021  
USDCAD 1.2159
-
Not a fan of USD bid so looking for when dlr buyers will tame their enthusism or dis-appear altogether.

Odds of N of 1.2225 low.
maybe my "famous last words"


Mtl JP  14:29:27 GMT - 05/18/2021  
just like chinese communists
-
WEF Cancels Singapore Meeting as Pandemic Haunts Global Event - bbrg
-
just because they are out of spotlight , or especially because they are out of spotlight, are not to be trusted.


PAR 15:00:54 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Time to buy S&P before Europe closes.


dc CB  15:36:46 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Quoth the Raven
@QTRResearch
This is what happens you pay ransom

*COLONIAL SHIPPERS SAY PIPELINE COMMUNICATION SYSTEM IS DOWN
10:27 AM · May 18, 2021


dc CB  15:39:04 GMT - 05/18/2021  
July Lumber on CME Limit DN again----


Mtl JP  22:28:18 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Nikkei 28050
-
so us stocks did a somersault puke into the close
in board diving score: a 7
lets see how asia trades


Mtl JP  22:38:24 GMT - 05/18/2021  
Is it hacker-proof ?
-
Why China’s digital yuan is ‘largest threat to the West’ in past 30 or 40 years, according to Kyle Bass

Of course, not everyone agrees with Bass.

Just like not everyone may agree with me that chinese communists are not to be trusted.


dc CB  01:25:40 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Pre 1990 Used Farm Tractors and Combines will double or triple in price.
__________________________________________
Hoosier Ag Today reports, "The biggest factor impacting the ability of US farmers to produce the food we need has nothing to do with the weather, the markets, trade, regulations, or disease. The worldwide shortage of computer chips will impact all aspects of agriculture for the next two years and beyond... farm equipment manufacturers have halted shipments to dealers because they don't have the chips to put in the equipment... not only have combine, planter, tillage, and tractor sales been impacted, but even ATV supplies are limited. Parts, even non-electric parts, are also in short supply because the manufacturers of those parts use the chips in the manufacturing process. As farmers integrate technology into all aspects of the farming process, these highly sophisticated semiconductors have become the backbone of almost every farming operation."

https://hoosieragtoday.com/commentary-chip-shortage-forcing-farmers-to-plan-ahead/



Mtl JP  06:15:22 GMT - 05/19/2021  
 
a bit of history according to Bloomberg
-
Stocks in Asia declined with U.S. and European equity futures Wednesday as concern about faster inflation overshadowed the economic recovery from the pandemic. A dollar gauge traded near the lowest level this year.

DLRx 89.675


Mtl JP  10:53:44 GMT - 05/19/2021  
 
can someone disprove the 1-> 2-> 3 theory that the squid has the market by the ballz when it dumps GOLD ?
-
1) GOLD 1856 from 1874
2) just in time for DLRx 89.655 to hold S and
3) EURO 1.2240 hold Res

tia !


Mtl JP  12:03:49 GMT - 05/19/2021  
heading into NY

10-yr 1.655
and stocks look like they ll be puking


Mtl JP  12:15:52 GMT - 05/19/2021  
HUH ?!
“This is healthy, but I think we all wish this didn’t happen.”
some "senior trader at Wave Financial"

Bitcoin Chartists See Rout Worsening With $40,000 in Focus



Mtl JP  13:21:58 GMT - 05/19/2021  
some potential notables coming up
-
10:00 - Bullard (on Economic Outlook)
11:35 - Bostic

14:00 - minutes


Mtl JP  13:29:05 GMT - 05/19/2021  
EURO 1.2214
-
floating just above 1.22 Sup
qtn now is ... is its just taking a breather ahead of 1.23
below 1.22 1.2180/75 Sup


haifa ac  13:43:38 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Beware of Nasdaq monthly reversal. it can develop into something ugly


HK Kevin  14:10:17 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Show me US500 below 4050 for my debit put spread position to be in-the-money.


Mtl JP  15:12:18 GMT - 05/19/2021  
USDCAD 1.2108
-
puppy would need to plow N thru 1.2125/30 for more usd momentum
odds, imo, are against it.
I remain usd bear


HK Kevin  15:46:20 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Mtl JP 15:12 GMT, USD/CAD will retrace back to 1.2080 before resuming upward momentum.


PAR 19:37:25 GMT - 05/19/2021  
Nothing looks ugly about the markets.
It's screaming higher and higher. New records are coming.
Just buy any dip as Biden, Powell and Yellen will not allow a 5% correction. That would look ugly.


dc CB  21:13:10 GMT - 05/19/2021  
 
follow-up on previous- tip of the day .

New tip of the day---You figure out why this is Back.

Watch this Space



Mtl JP  10:03:12 GMT - 05/20/2021  
May 20: 4-, 8-week bills; 10-year TIPS reopening

"Inflation Angst Turns TIPS Into Must-Watch $1.6 Trillion Market" - bbrg


Mtl JP  16:00:37 GMT - 05/20/2021  
DLRx 89.76
-
puppy just floating abouve 89.66 3x Support

puppy 's proving sofar that there is little appetite for it
the yield would have to change
in the meantime I am keeping nega bias
prefer trading pops from short side


Mtl JP  22:57:13 GMT - 05/20/2021  
Biden orders federal climate-risk financial strategy, with implications for homeowners, pensions and government contracts

President directs agencies to analyze and mitigate the risk climate change poses to the financial system, and he’ll use the findings in the budget process - MarketWatch

-

Robinhood Plans to Give Access to IPOs to Everyone - Barron's

-

Macklem's Bank of Canada Warns Home Buyers Rates Will Eventually Rise

“Interest rates are unusually low, borrowers and lenders both have a role in ensuring that households can still afford to service their debt at higher rates. Counting on ever-higher house prices to build home equity that can be used to refinance mortgages in the future is a bad idea."

no sh.t sherlock. I can hardly wait for manifestation of "The central bank found there are signs of more speculative activity in some key markets that could post financial stability concerns." and "concerns associated with any repricing globally of risky assets with stretched valuations." Who likes exhuberant pricing ? And who likes lower prices (i.e repricing) ?


Mtl JP  22:59:40 GMT - 05/20/2021  
USDCAD 1.2060
-
Maclem's BoC next rate: June 9


Mtl JP  07:02:59 GMT - 05/21/2021  
 
DLRx 89.755
-
the crux price line


Mtl JP  09:33:57 GMT - 05/21/2021  
$1877
-
Gold Heads for Third Weekly Advance as Inflation, Fed in Focus

(Bloomberg) -- Gold headed for a third straight weekly gain as the dollar continued to trend down, with investors weighing signs of inflation and economic recovery. .../..


Mtl JP  13:51:48 GMT - 05/21/2021  
DLRx 89.85
-
range getting tighter and while S at 89.65 tested multiple times the fact that puppy trades under 90 and when it pops gets pushed back under suggets no enthusiasm for it.

DLRCAD - 1.2050
-
puppy likely slave overall to mood around the USD
close under 1.2050 should open low 1.20 trgt
Res 1.2080/1.21


Mtl JP  15:54:47 GMT - 05/21/2021  
12:15 - Kaplan (non-voter), Barkin & Bostic (voters) yak

13:30 - Daly yaks (voteress)


Mtl JP  23:42:35 GMT - 05/23/2021  
 
usdcad 1.2066
gap
-
As I am still USD nega-biased ...


Mtl JP  23:51:59 GMT - 05/23/2021  
.. ..
The Independent
Home Office considers charging EU citizens to visit Britain
The new Electronic Travel Authorisation scheme would be based on the US model, which costs £9


Mtl JP  23:55:12 GMT - 05/23/2021  
... central bankers are already wondering ...
-
Bloomberg
Global Rebound Euphoria Tests Central Bankers’ Nerves on Risk
Craig Stirling, Sun., May 23, 2021

Global Rebound Euphoria Tests Central Bankers’ Nerves on Risk
(Bloomberg) -- With the world barely through the worst of an unprecedented crisis, central bankers are already wondering if the next one is around the corner. .../..

From Washington to Frankfurt, what began months ago as a murmur of concern has morphed into a chorus as officials ask if a risk-taking binge across multiple asset markets might presage a destabilizing rout that could derail the global recovery.


Mtl JP  07:23:32 GMT - 05/24/2021  
 
USDCAD 1.2056
GAP
---
Hello ! Now POOF!


Mtl JP  14:07:21 GMT - 05/24/2021  
 
USDx 89.72
-
puppy not getting much love
I continue to prefer selling pops uP / rallies


Mtl JP  19:43:38 GMT - 05/24/2021  
10-yr 1.607
sell ... or .... buy
and the difference in argument for either is the reason
why markets exist
-
... “That inflation shock fear eased over the past week,”

Now, investors are watching the Fed to see how quickly it will respond to the inflation.

The point is that investors are now expecting interest rates across the board to rise sooner rather than later. Don’t be surprised to see significant stock-market volatility as the Fed story unfolds. ...

The Inflation Scare Is Over. The Fed One Is Just Getting Started.



Mtl JP  09:45:40 GMT - 05/25/2021  
10-yr 1.591%
DLRx 89.58
Gold ~1883 (basing)
BTC $37,921

German 10-yr -0.15%
UK 10-yr 0.81

nothing worthwhile on today's calendar


Mtl JP  09:57:47 GMT - 05/25/2021  
temporary deflation
-
Bloomberg May 25, 2021
Obese Pigs in China Are Fueling Relentless Slump in Pork Prices



Mtl JP  13:51:15 GMT - 05/25/2021  
suddenly stocks are not liking something


Mtl JP  13:54:13 GMT - 05/25/2021  
and it is not cost of money us 10 yr 1.583


Mtl JP  14:11:22 GMT - 05/25/2021  
GOLD 1893
flying...
-
folks dumpin' crypros ?


Mtl JP  14:29:31 GMT - 05/25/2021  
... ++ ...
-
..."FBI said the cybercriminals using the malicious software dubbed 'Conti' have targeted law enforcement, emergency medical services, dispatch centers, and municipalities." .../.

RTRS - FBI says Conti ransomware gang has hit 16 U.S. health and emergency networks



Mtl JP  07:52:19 GMT - 05/26/2021  
10-yr 1.572
-
AP
Asian markets rise as inflation fears ease
Stocks edge higher in Tokyo, Hong Kong

..."Investors also have been encouraged by stronger U.S. corporate profits and consumer spending. That has kept the U.S. stock market near record highs and boosted optimism in global markets.

Data due out Thursday are expected to show the biggest global economy accelerated in the first three months of this year after expanding at an annual rate of 4.3% in 2020’s final quarter. Economists expect a huge rebound this year following the deepest slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s." .../.


Mtl JP  10:02:31 GMT - 05/26/2021  
 
USDx 89.68
-
sitting on Sup line
the trend is still strong
waiting
for what I do not know
you ?

tia


Mtl JP  16:18:25 GMT - 05/26/2021  
DLRx 90.05
-
above 90 puppy should find Res


Mtl JP  16:32:44 GMT - 05/26/2021  
EURO 1.2200x
-
coincident with DLRx 90
euro should find Sup around here


Mtl JP  16:36:59 GMT - 05/26/2021  
It is my premise that it is the DLR that sets the dancing tone
i.e dlr leads, euro follows


PAR 07:16:12 GMT - 05/27/2021  
Looking forward to along weekend in the USA.

KBC Economics

" The US remains in focus today with a $62 bln 7y auction, April durable goods orders and the weekly jobless claims. We doubt though whether they will be pivotal for trading. The overarching feeling over the past few days is one of doubt and not knowing where to go from here. In the run-up to the long US weekend (May 31, Memorial Day) we don’t expect to see large directional moves. Both US and German (10y) yields are near or have hit first support levels. These should hold as long as the big picture of the economic reopening remains intact. The dollar’s downside got a little more protection after yesterday’s price action. That said, we see no reason for a protracted USD revival either. EUR/USD touched 23.6% Fibonacci support (Nov 20 – Jan 21 upleg) near 1.217 this morning. Some sideways consolidation might be in the making. EUR/GBP continues a choppy upward sloping path."


PAR 07:34:38 GMT - 05/27/2021  
Before and during a US holiday US markets almost always move higher.


Mtl JP  09:21:06 GMT - 05/27/2021  
 
10-yr 1.588
EURO 1.2188
DLRx 90.04
-
DLR s up against l/t Res live.
Breach N opens 90.40
and euro should ploink correspondingly
near S (and trgt): 1.2150-ish


PAR 12:39:31 GMT - 05/27/2021  
World markets rise on strong economic data and on Biden's plan to spend, spend and spend trillions and trillions.

Typical pre-US holiday markets.


Mtl JP  15:35:07 GMT - 05/27/2021  
DLRx 90.05 - definitely undecided
euro 1.2187 - puppy definitely undecided as well bouncing inside 1.2210 / 1.2180

the buffalo herd needs a pistol crack


PAR 06:40:50 GMT - 05/28/2021  
Before and during a long US holiday weekend US stock markets always move higher.

A long-established Wall Street tradition.


Mtl JP  06:43:42 GMT - 05/28/2021  
 
GAPS
two same direction gaps
raise the Qtn: belief or fact ?
-
discounting economic re-opening: belief or fact ?


Mtl JP  07:22:14 GMT - 05/28/2021  
10-yr 1.622 (vs ytd 1.765 high)
-
Nikkei ... is on fire. FIRE !


Mtl JP  09:04:38 GMT - 05/28/2021  
"stable prices" mandate
-
Treasury Secretary sees ‘high rates of inflation through end of the year’

Yellen’s high inflation forecast translates into a communication headache for the Fed
May 27, By Greg Robb



Mtl JP  14:21:01 GMT - 05/28/2021  
10-yr 1.597
-
post PCE - a sleeper report it turns out - nothing fundamentaly new in the deck.

Bottom Line: keeping sell-dollar-rallies.
this pig looks like it ll bleed some more

likely short day; players likely to focus on NFP next Fr


Mtl JP  14:30:40 GMT - 05/28/2021  
for reference
-
U.S. heads into holiday weekend with 51% of adults fully vaccinated and COVID cases down 35% from two weeks ago - MarketWatch


haifa ac  14:36:10 GMT - 05/28/2021  
You forgot this:
After more than a year of social isolation during the pandemic, the sentiment may perfectly encapsulate the purported vibe of the coming months – a period in which people are swapping masks for a different kind of protection. Welcome to summer 2021: the summer of sex."

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210525-are-we-heading-towards-a-summer-of-sex


PAR 15:36:46 GMT - 05/28/2021  
US stock markets boosted by a weaker US dollar and lower rates.


Mtl JP  16:45:41 GMT - 05/28/2021  
Perro Come Perro
-
Opinion: The Theory at the Heart of Modern Portfolios Is Leading Investors Astray

By Jon Lukomnik and James P. Hawley



Mtl JP  22:37:01 GMT - 05/29/2021  
 
10-yr 1.581
-
USDCNY 6.3590
Is the low yield on the dlr a / the factor ?
Is sub 6.40 a trap ?
Seeking comments, postulations, trade ideas

tks !


Mtl JP  22:46:02 GMT - 05/30/2021  
 
Reuters - Rapid appreciation of China's yuan not sustainable, says former PBOC official

BEIJING, May 30 (Reuters) - The rapid appreciation of China's yuan against the U.S. dollar may have overshot and will not be sustainable, a former central bank official said in an interview with state media Xinhua News on Sunday. .../.


Mtl JP  05:52:56 GMT - 05/31/2021  
 
EURO 1.2195-ish
-
H&S in the making ?
is that what is next ?
tia !


Mtl JP  07:53:59 GMT - 05/31/2021  
ahead of holiday monday NY
-
"Asian markets fall after disappointing economic data from Japan, China"

"(Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe struggled for traction along with U.S. futures after signs China’s economic recovery may be leveling out and as investors continue to weigh global inflation risks.

Here are key events to watch this week:

U.S. markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.
U.K. markets will be closed for the Spring Bank holiday
Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision Tuesday
OPEC+ meets to review oil production levels Tuesday
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speak Wednesday
U.S. employment report for May on Friday"


Mtl JP  14:15:06 GMT - 05/31/2021  
DLRx 89.96
-
with UK and US closed, market is drifting.

later in the week potentially market dynamic will change on US employment and PMI releases

EURO 1.2205
appears to be getting somewhat lame: not expecting much enthusiasm for the puppy in light of the steep plunge on Fr.

Sup 1.2180/75/50-ish; Res 1.2215 and around Jay's magical figure.


Mtl JP  16:02:50 GMT - 05/31/2021  
• The May jobs report looms large for markets in the week ahead, with 674,000 jobs expected, after last month’s disappointing 266,000 payrolls.

• Stocks turned in a mixed performance in May, and according to Bespoke, June can be weak, with the Dow down on average 0.7% for the month over the last 20 years.

• The focus will largely be on the economy and the Fed in the coming week, after another hotter-than-expected inflation report was released Friday.

A big jobs report looms in the week ahead, as markets enter the often-weak month of June
Patti Domm



Mtl JP  14:15:00 GMT - 06/01/2021  
10-yr 1.640%
DLRx 89.72
-
as long as yield is tamped (say under ytd's high)
USD is in sell bias.

additionally, higher commodities means lower usd
which plays with commodity ccies

EURO 1.2245
I am enthusiastic about the puppy, stuck as it is between 1.2150 and 1.2250 currently
Sup 1.22/2180-ish
Res 1.2250/1.23/2349 (or targets)


Mtl JP  14:16:24 GMT - 06/01/2021  
... am enthusiastic... s/be am not enthusiastic


Mtl JP  15:01:30 GMT - 06/01/2021  
 
Dog eat Dog
-
going after the gap


Mtl JP  15:07:57 GMT - 06/01/2021  
copy paste
saves me typing
-
10:54 S&P 500 down 0.1%; Nasdaq Composite drops 0.4%
10:53 Dow industrials up 104 points, or 0.3%
10:53 Stocks erase opening gains; S&P 500, Nasdaq turn negative
10:49 U.S. manufacturers have tons of demand, ISM finds, but they’re handcuffed by labor and supply shortages
- MarketWatch

the solution to "tons of demand" is ....
raise prices. more. and if still "tons of demand" -> means prices still too low so raise prices. more. and moRE.
until demand balances supply


Mtl JP  15:54:35 GMT - 06/01/2021  
YESS!
-
on one hand: every "green" screams curb consumption, reuse and recycle
on the other: ..." factories are humming, with strong demand for products supporting activity that would be even stronger if the resources were available to expand production,”... but one is encouraged not to fear as "in time as millions of unemployed Americans are incentivized to fill a flood of job openings"

incentivized, that is the ticket

U.S. stocks turn mostly lower as ISM reading underlines bottlenecks



PAR 16:39:42 GMT - 06/01/2021  
Labor vs Capital

In the past 67% labor 33% capital.

Nowadays 59% labor 41% capital.

Products are too expensive and labor is not adequately compensated.

So employees loose twice.

Profit marges are excessive as there is less and less competition.

Apple just increases its prices instead of selling more phones. So they need less labor to make those phones and make more money.


Mtl JP  16:46:42 GMT - 06/01/2021  
PAR if "Products are too expensive" how is it that "factories are humming, with strong demand for products" while "labor is not adequately compensated" ? (assuming labor that actually holds a job)
tia


Mtl JP  17:24:34 GMT - 06/01/2021  
 
remember the GAP
-
almost - if not as I type - POOF !


PAR  17:46:18 GMT - 06/01/2021  
Factories are making more money selling fewer products at higher prices and material shortages are just an excuse.

Problem is that the companies became too big have too much money and power and don't tolerate any competition.

Governments should stimulate competition and destroy monopolies, duopolies and any excessive power in whatever sector.

But that would lower prices, lower profit margins and crash the stock market.

For the real economy that would be a huge plus.


Mtl JP  22:46:17 GMT - 06/01/2021  
 
4193
-
lets see if ~4190 holds Sup


Mtl JP  00:52:41 GMT - 06/02/2021  
PAR 17:46 - gov'ts don't like and don't have competition.

and they won't self-eliminate voluntarily:
“We're shifting from risk to opportunity and, as I say, aligning value in the market with what we want in society,”

in other words old Marketing 101 "deliver that which the customer wants" mantra is out the window.

want to know who is who in "We're" ?



Mtl JP  00:56:20 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Qtn: in whose pocket is it better for the money to be in:

(Fortune) - A 21% global tax floor would mean $140 billion more for Europe and U.K., think tanks claim

corporations' OR governments' ?


haifa ac  07:48:04 GMT - 06/02/2021  
"London pikoo0201 06:31 GMT 06/02/2021 - My Profile
EURJPY"

It is amazing how much garbage the internet spews. Puke!


Mtl JP  09:56:21 GMT - 06/02/2021  
 
EURO 1.2180
-
patience and reward


Mtl JP  14:15:11 GMT - 06/02/2021  
DLRx 89.95
-
pops N of 90 are feeble. feeble as ...
what more do you need ?

****
all day FED mushroom feeders on deck
(they appear to have found a new meme - racism between their yakking about outlook for economy)

lat 14:00 NYT - beige book


PAR 14:19:06 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Dovish Fed minutes. What did you expect?


Mtl JP  14:41:50 GMT - 06/02/2021  
EURO 1.2199
-
it should be clear to most that puppy is prancing inside 1.2250 and 1.2150
with a tint of hint of trying to instill that its bull run is ...
huff n puffing

lagarde yak at some ceremony today but the bigger piece is ECB's meeting next week


HK Kevin  14:51:59 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Sell again AUD/USD at 0.7746 earlier with very very tight stop.


HK Kevin  15:17:19 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Stopped out at 0.7753.
HK Kevin 14:51 GMT 06/02/2021
Sell again AUD/USD at 0.7746 earlier with very very tight stop.


GVI Forex 16:17:03 GMT - 06/02/2021  
 
I do not like to critique trades after the fact but with that siad, I wish you guys would take me up on getting access to the Amazing Trader.
'
See 15-minute AUFUSD chart

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  22:35:10 GMT - 06/02/2021  
Stealers Wheel
Clowns to the left of me Jokers to the right Here I am Stuck in the middle ...
-
SEC’s efforts to rein in Elon Musk’s tweets have been largely toothless - MarketWatch

no chit sherlock, just entertaining to some and profitable to others


Mtl JP  01:12:40 GMT - 06/03/2021  
netanyahu
at first painfully slowly. then ... suddenly and definitely poooOOF!
onto garbage heap of history
-
Lapid announces: I succeeded in forming a coalition

Lapid Announces: I Have Succeeded in Forming a Government



haifa ac  06:13:11 GMT - 06/03/2021  
"Lapid announces: I succeeded in forming a coalition"

LOLOL
Leberman (russian thug)////Zandberg (communist)////Michaeli (Leftist) ////Mansur Abas (Arab head of ISLAMIC party who vows to exterminate Israel) Bennet (supposedly rightist)////Lapid (The Mayor of the State of Tel-Aviv)
Like a bunch of monkeys trying to form an orchestra ("The Quartet" by Krylov).
The only glue that holds this group is HATRED towards Bibi (who world leaders regard as great as Churchill as far as leaders go)/ Now that the single glueing factor is gone--what is holding them together?! N A D A.
We shall see how long this fictional government holds.


Mtl JP  06:52:00 GMT - 06/03/2021  
 
SnP 4201.5-ish
-
it is dump risk time in Ldn


Mtl JP  14:56:34 GMT - 06/03/2021  
US 10-yr 1.622
DLRx 90.43
-
Bottom Line
DLR still inside range.
Rallies, sofar, have been clubbed.

IMHO, even if NFP comes in hotter than experts' opinion, DLR's rally risks a Jubb's rampage - nless.... yield blows North


Mtl JP  14:56:48 GMT - 06/03/2021  
US 10-yr 1.622
DLRx 90.43
-
Bottom Line
DLR still inside range.
Rallies, sofar, have been clubbed.

IMHO, even if NFP comes in hotter than experts' opinion, DLR's rally risks a Jubb's rampage - nless.... yield blows North


Mtl JP  15:05:55 GMT - 06/03/2021  
euro 1.2135ish
-
Looking for a turn North.
Sub 1.2150 looks over-extended


Mtl JP  16:05:15 GMT - 06/03/2021  
10-yr giving only 1.619%
and does not look like it is in a hurry to give more


Mtl JP  17:55:03 GMT - 06/03/2021  
US 10-yr 1.623
-
some are probably asking:
Is this the start of a fresh climb in US yields?


Mtl JP  18:00:09 GMT - 06/03/2021  
scared what vlad may have on him ?
-
"Biden will raise cyberattacks with Putin at meeting, White House says"


Mtl JP  00:19:37 GMT - 06/04/2021  
10-yr 1.630
-
there is something stocks don't like
nikkei is off, us snp continues to slide as well


Mtl JP  00:25:35 GMT - 06/04/2021  
maybe it is the hot ADP as the wall-of-worry
that is making yield go uP


Jkt Abel  02:08:21 GMT - 06/04/2021  
Gold rose, ab disappeared..gold down, kwun disappeared


Mtl JP  10:09:21 GMT - 06/04/2021  
first wh let it be know that sleepy joe "will raise cyberattacks with Putin"

now a cnbc headlines that
"Biden administration mulling cyber attacks against Russian hackers"

haha, just keep mulling joe


Mtl JP  14:17:42 GMT - 06/04/2021  
Note about elites, rulers, planners, schemers and assorted globalists:
-
LONDON, June 4 (Reuters) - Finance ministers from the G7 group of rich nations are meeting in London on Friday for two days of talks aimed at .../..

Then next week:
G7 Leaders' Summit in Carbis Bay, United Kingdom from June 11 to 13, 2021

(all of them travelling to shindig either by sailboat or hot-air balloon. sarc)


PAR 14:21:48 GMT - 06/04/2021  
G7 has become a little irrelevant in the current economic world.


Mtl JP  14:45:19 GMT - 06/04/2021  
I suggest that it is not a good idea to dismiss even slightly the evil intent of the globalists to corral, to control, to squeeze and, if necessary, to punish.


Mtl JP  14:51:05 GMT - 06/04/2021  
new (but old at the same time) from the admirer of chinese dictatorship:

Quote
“Now more than ever, world leaders need to come together to tackle the challenges of today and tomorrow. Canada will continue to work with our global partners to keep our people healthy, create jobs and opportunity, grow the middle class, fight climate change, and strengthen democratic values. Only together can we bring an end to this pandemic and build a future that works for everyone.”

The Rt. Hon. Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada



Jkt Abel  16:47:45 GMT - 06/04/2021  
Well gold very much off the high and no sign of returning high. Usdx also holding key 90 level. Betting on usd to hold ground here.


Jkt Abel  16:50:18 GMT - 06/04/2021  
Gold will close below 1900, top for today is in. Same with other usd cousins.


Mtl JP  17:26:53 GMT - 06/04/2021  
DLRx 90.12
-
Abel I wish me luck as I continue 2 b dlr-bear biased. Even IF puppy closes N of 90.05 it ll close uP on the week.

With NFP having come in yet again crappy (+559K vs +675K xpct'd) odds of FED gang yik-yak to quell their minimum $120bln QE and/or hiking yield are currently POOF! and off the table. (Mester says "We want to be deliberately patient here because this was a huge, huge shock to the economy," "Bottom line, I would like to see further progress than where we are right now." - on cnbc)

In aggregate I read that as dark clouds for this week's DLR flop-uPs.


Mtl JP  17:35:12 GMT - 06/04/2021  
to borrow from a famous advertisement
"do you know what is your wallet"
-
FINRA and the SEC are going after brokers who don’t do enough to protect their customers

Americans face mounting risk of hackers taking over brokerage accounts, regulators say
June 4, 2021 By Chris Matthews



Mtl JP  18:10:37 GMT - 06/04/2021  

Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
 
SnP 4225.25
it is a dare, maybe a lure: usually asia apes US

ps - risk control is individual responsibility


Mtl JP  11:05:05 GMT - 06/06/2021  
the ties that bind
-
AMC Drama Is Exposing Risks in $11 Trillion World of Indexing - bloomberg

... "Once the rules have been drawn up in the land of indexing, once the play has been called in the huddle, you don't have that ...


Mtl JP  12:03:58 GMT - 06/06/2021  
Bloomberg
-
ECB Isn’t About to Flinch at First Sign of a Recovery: Eco Week
(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank officials will debate whether to prolong their elevated pace of emergency bond-buying this week, a judgment that rests on how fragile they determine the economy’s recovery to be. ... A lively debate is likely though, in a possible precursor to the discussion the Federal Reserve will have the following week on whether to keep up its own stimulus or start paring it back. ../.

***
Bank of Russia holds a rate-setting meeting Friday

U.K.’s monthly GDP, industrial production and trade figures due Friday.

U.S. CPI on Thursday; April job openings and report on jobless claims
Fed are in blackout this upcoming week ahead of their next meeting on June 15-16.

Bank of Canada rate decision Wednesday


NY JM  12:14:40 GMT - 06/07/2021  
This feels like the calm before key events/data mid week onwards.


London  Trader  13:32:39 GMT - 06/07/2021  
Is anyone playing the short USD side or just the range?


Mtl JP  14:32:48 GMT - 06/07/2021  
EURO 1.2181
near Res at 1.2185
-
Can the puppy be lamer than lame ?
still inside the 1.2150-1.2250 corridor.
st S at 1.2150/45, more likely at 1.21
To show some spunk it will need to breach and stay N of 1.22 at least


Mtl JP  14:45:16 GMT - 06/07/2021  
euro 1.2185/7
-
d-moment here
sharks nibbling at stops


Mtl JP  14:47:18 GMT - 06/07/2021  
this is where some sort of privileged knowledge about order line could come in handy


Mtl JP  14:59:12 GMT - 06/07/2021  
some might argue euro enthusiasm (HoD 91 sofar) is the fault of eurgbp


Mtl JP  15:22:55 GMT - 06/07/2021  
is this a hint:
-
Energy Secretary Granholm Says Hackers Could Shut Down the U.S. Power Grid - Barron's ?


Mtl JP  22:25:16 GMT - 06/08/2021  
bing bang and ... POOF !
did you feel the earth move (besides some pork-related stocks) ?
me neither:

• Infrastructure negotiations between the White House and a small group of Republican senators have collapsed.

• With no deal in sight, President Joe Biden spoke by phone Tuesday with senators who are part of a bipartisan group that has been quietly working on a backup infrastructure plan.

• In addition to bipartisan options, Biden also spoke to the top two Democrats on Tuesday, and gave them a green light to begin crafting an infrastructure bill that can pass without any Republican votes.

Biden seeks new coalition for infrastructure bill as talks with key GOP senators fall apart



Mtl JP  13:41:08 GMT - 06/09/2021  
10-yr 1.486%
DLRx 89.83
-
when (and under what circumstance) was 1.5% yield seen last eh koko ?

Odds are tom's CPI print ("what would you like it to print") will be made to help stop if not reverse the perversity in yield.


Tallinn viies  13:45:08 GMT - 06/09/2021  
pain trade would be if it will fall below 1,25% or 1,00%.
there is no reason why it should be between 1,50-2,00 % when front end struggles not to move below 0,00%.

The Treasury’s net issuance of bills has been negative in recent months, putting downward pressure on yields.

JP Morgan’s client survey points to deeper bets against Treasuries. The risk to yields is to the downside.

so keep buying the stuff! US indexes or whatever.


dc CB  18:52:00 GMT - 06/09/2021  
10Y Auction US Treas.
Today's high yield was 1.497% (almost 20bps below the 1.684% at the last auction), trading through the WI yield by a very significant 1bps

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/surge-foreign-demand-sparks-stellar-10y-treasury-auction-ahead-tomorrows-cpi

AND 15 mins later
RevRepo
Counterparties 59
502.904 Billion------------AKA Half-a-Trillion Dollars


Mtl JP  07:26:12 GMT - 06/10/2021  
 
London is betting that
1) CPI is coming in "hot" OR
2) pushing price lower ahead of a benign CPI to get in at better price

I am leaning to #2


Mtl JP  07:02:23 GMT - 06/11/2021  
SnP 4238
futures are flat after new high and nevermind rising inflation


Mtl JP  21:41:58 GMT - 06/20/2021  
Euro 1.18584

Liquidating Market
How long does liquidating market take to liquidate ?
-
Presumably started after wednesday's jerome act.
then bullard's act II clobbered the market puppies some more.

subsequent kashkari act IIb did little if nothing to market nega-sentiment sofat.

Some bets:
very s/t:
"euro will be back at 1,21 next week." - Tallinn viies 06 -17-2021

bit more out:
"The Fed has penciled in two rate hikes for 2023, but by the time they get around to hiking, they will instead be cutting." Mike Shedlock - from GVI Forex 10:40 linked piece


Mtl JP  14:11:45 GMT - 06/21/2021  
lagarde yaks again at 10:15 - ~5 mins


Mtl JP  14:25:37 GMT - 06/21/2021  
DLRx 91.885 (down a bit)
EURO 1.1913
-
Puppy mildly bullish.
S 1.1850; puppy popping N of 1.1925 and holding it should open 1.1950/75 in the short term


Mtl JP  15:14:17 GMT - 06/21/2021  
The un-spoken awkwardness in market is lack of confidence in and quiet worry for the outlook for US economy as the Fed gang gingerly attempts to broach the tapering topic. Maybe that is why USDis off some this morning.

Outside the rainfall of various FED gang members yakking, chief mushroom farmer yaks tomorrow. (officially to politicians)

Bottom Line propaganda message:
tapering economic "support" remains a handle with care like early versions of nitroglycerin with plenty advance trumpeting.

USDx 91.865; 10-yr 1.426%


Mtl JP  15:27:26 GMT - 06/21/2021  
bullard says

- first interest rate hike could come before tapering has ended but not what he wants now

- he doesn't think tapering will be on auto-pilot

- it is up to FOMC when to start tapering asset purchase, says it takes time to organize

- economy is booming and strong growth may last for several years

srce.: MarketWatch


Mtl JP  16:18:24 GMT - 06/22/2021  
DLRx 91.93
-
Puppy looks as if it has seen its top (reached the 18th), currently panting and resting after last week's euphoric rally.

**
At top of hour Fed peddles off 2yr bonds.


Mtl JP  16:26:30 GMT - 06/22/2021  
EURO 1.1915
-
Puppy looks hesitant bullish while above 1.1850 Supp.
To run uP it needs to pop N of and hold 1.1925
says watson


Mtl JP  16:36:42 GMT - 06/22/2021  
EURO 1.1927
-
lets see if Nigel is trying to be funny


HK Kevin  16:50:30 GMT - 06/22/2021  
Basically, both EUR and GBP are in buy mode after breaking ytd high.






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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