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hk ab  05:29:50 GMT - 12/30/2021  
2 yrs has already gone wild, next 10.


Bangkok KC  08:14:11 GMT - 12/30/2021  
ab// Any views on gold?


PAR 08:15:46 GMT - 12/30/2021  
Stock buybacks offsetting Covid problem.

Stock buybacks are a powerful tool, especially during the last hour of trading.

Manipulating closing prices was sanctioned in the past by the Nyse. Now it has become a trading strategy.


hk ab  08:38:01 GMT - 12/30/2021  
KC, only comment on metals is XAG is more honest than XAU.


jkt abel  09:33:25 GMT - 12/30/2021  
gold still play 1786-88 up till 1818-20


Mtl JP  04:43:57 GMT - 12/31/2021  
sweet
-
Bloomberg
Exxon Reaps Windfall of Up to $1.9 Billion From Energy Rally
Joe Carroll, Thu., December 30, 2021


Mtl JP  14:31:27 GMT - 12/31/2021  
A somewhat empirical look at The Magazine Cover Indicator

Curtesy Brent Donnelly



Mtl JP  14:00:20 GMT - 01/01/2022  
 
What prediction markets suggest will happen in 2022

according to

The Economist



dc CB  20:17:37 GMT - 01/01/2022  
Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year is no exception. Poignant and delightfully acerbic when necessary, considering the troubling times. As with past years, he selected Peak Prosperity as the site where it is published in full. It is longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. This is Part 1.

David B. Collum
Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology – Cornell University

2021 pt 1



Mtl JP  12:38:06 GMT - 01/03/2022  
some potential betting trade opps this week
-
Brent $78.40
Jan 4th
OPEC Meeting
Betting $s is on what the cartel will do about supply in light of covid rampaging in economies around the world

Jan 5th
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Players would likely react to any waffling about the Fed sticking to 3 int rate hikes

Jan 7th
NFP (exp'd 379K vs 210K actual vs prev forcast of 546K)
Betting (usually thru eurdlr) will be about the size of the gap between expected and release numbers.


Mtl JP  13:35:04 GMT - 01/03/2022  
 
USDILS 3.09
-
Israel Has ‘Luxury’ of Waiting Before Hiking Rates: Decision Day
January 3, 2022, 12:00 AM EST

(Bloomberg) -- Robust economic growth and relatively low inflation will likely lead the Bank of Israel to hold borrowing costs on Monday and for months to come, opening up the prospect of a rates spread with the U.S. that could weaken the roaring shekel.

Analysts see Israel’s benchmark rate staying steady at 0.1% until late 2022 or early 2023, though inflation is heating up and the economy remains potentially threatened by the highly contagious omicron variant. All 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect borrowing costs to hold on Monday. .../.


Mtl JP  23:53:12 GMT - 01/03/2022  
 
ya .. I did not not see this rocket taking off
-
but I do see a GAP


Mtl JP  04:25:38 GMT - 01/04/2022  
 
kids ... asia is flying
-
c if NY apes


Mtl JP  14:09:38 GMT - 01/04/2022  
USDCAD 1.2727
odds r 4 chop-chop price dynamic

-

OPEC+ expected to stick to planned oil output hike as omicron Covid cases soar - CNBC

- OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, known collectively as OPEC+, were scheduled to hold a videoconference from 1 p.m. London time.

- OPEC+ has raised its output target each month since August by 400,00 barrels per day and the group is widely expected to stick to this policy for February.

- Energy analysts expect world oil markets to remain prone to geopolitics in 2022, with “saber-rattling” over the persistent Russia-Ukraine standoff and ongoing Iranian nuclear negotiations likely to be closely monitored by OPEC+


Israel MacroMicro  14:16:11 GMT - 01/04/2022  
it is an easy bet to assume that PAR will be shown wrong soon regarding VIX longs never making money.

bit more patience and get into VIX longs as shared some time ago. I can see that true money maker in the making.


Mtl JP  14:16:43 GMT - 01/04/2022  
jeff cox's whispers
-
-- The Federal Reserve in a little over two months is expected to enact its first rate increase in three years.

-- As officials prep for a return to more conventional monetary policy, Wall Street is watching closely.

-- The Fed is responding to inflation pressures that are running — by some measures — at the fastest rate in nearly 40 years.

"Current pricing in the fed funds futures market points to about a 60% likelihood of a hike in March, and a 61% probability that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will add two more by the end of 2022, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool."

Markets and the economy brace as the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike could come in two months



Mtl JP  14:23:55 GMT - 01/04/2022  
EURUSD 1.1285
-
puppy looks to languish some now
likely needs to break thru 70 to hunt low 1.12 and 1.1200
50dma = Res


Israel MacroMicro  14:33:24 GMT - 01/04/2022  
point is WHEN my dear JP and of course at which order between them

levels all people can scream... :)


Mtl JP  15:01:54 GMT - 01/04/2022  
cambridge definition "languish" :
to exist in an unpleasant or unwanted situation, often for a long time

deal with it


Israel MacroMicro  15:05:44 GMT - 01/04/2022  
Kalkilia definition of JP: HARTA

live with it / lol


Mtl JP  15:27:03 GMT - 01/04/2022  
on deck in one hour
-
kashkari
-- on economy


Mtl JP  23:58:24 GMT - 01/04/2022  
upcoming tradeable calendar risk events :
-
Jan 5th
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Players would likely react to any waffling about the Fed sticking to 3 int rate hikes

Jan 7th
NFP (exp'd 379K vs 210K actual vs prev forcast of 546K)
Betting (usually thru eurdlr) will be about the size of the gap between expected and release numbers.


Mtl JP  08:19:57 GMT - 01/05/2022  
Bloomberg
German Energy Giant Uniper Gets $11 Billion for Margin Calls

(Bloomberg) -- German energy giant Uniper SE was forced to borrow billions to pay down margin calls -- the collateral exchanges require to back up trades -- as European gas and electricity prices rallied.

...“Higher commodity prices lead to temporarily higher margining requirements,” Uniper said. “At the same time, higher commodity prices increase the value of Uniper’s underlying gas and power assets. Therefore, Uniper’s structural earnings prospects are not adversely impacted by higher prices.” .../.


GVI Forex 12:22:12 GMT - 01/05/2022  
EURUSD spikes up on hawkish comments from ECB’s Kasaks


Mtl JP  12:27:47 GMT - 01/05/2022  
some spike ...
all of barely 10-12 pips


GVI Forex 12:31:09 GMT - 01/05/2022  
Still a spike that ran stops above the HOD and shows you how thin liquidity is as a hawkish ECB is an outlier.


Mtl JP  12:44:09 GMT - 01/05/2022  
puppy sat around 1.1315-20 for longest time
it popped to 1.1326
imo it shows how lightweight Kazāks (Governor, Latvijas Banka) is to players


Mtl JP  13:01:18 GMT - 01/05/2022  
 
eyes forward
-
Treasury Yield Curve Steepens on Bet Fed Sticks to Hawkish Path
Michael MacKenzie, January 5, 2022, 7:29 a.m

(Bloomberg) -- The bond market has wasted little time pushing Treasury yields sharply higher in the early days of 2022, underscoring concern that elevated inflation will spur more aggressive monetary-policy tightening from the Federal Reserve. ...

***
"experts" :
"the present low level of Treasury yields means “it doesn’t take much to push them higher.” - David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management Inc.

“Even if economic growth is slowed by the Omicron variant, the Fed’s concerns about inflation should be enough to keep tightening on track,” “Yield curves have already responded by steepening, and we expect that to continue.” - Deborah Cunningham, chief investment officer of global liquidity markets at Federated Hermes

“While the Fed’s hawkish pivot at its December meeting provides a fundamental reason for higher Treasury yields, we believe increased corporate supply and rate lock hedging amid limited liquidity is driving this early-year surge,” - Prashant Newnaha, an Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities

“You only reduce inflationary pressure by slowing aggregate demand and that requires higher long-term rates,” JPMorgan’s Kelly

"But we don't think inflation dynamics will support continued hiking. We suspect the biggest driver of asset markets will be when inflation and Covid fears begin to ebb." - Steve Englander, head of global G-10 FX research at Standard Chartered


Belgrade Knez  13:01:43 GMT - 01/05/2022  
eurusd spike was small as comments was for the next year and only possibility ...... so nothing important at the moment
---------
* ECB'S KAZAKS SAYS EARLY 2023 RATE HIKE IS `POSSIBLE SCENARIO'
---------



Mtl JP  13:27:08 GMT - 01/05/2022  
union break till
-
1900 GMT
Fed's Dec meeting minutes


GVI Forex 13:29:28 GMT - 01/05/2022  
Big miss to the upside for ADP jobs (stronger payrolls) but does not often correlate with Friday’s NFP release.


Mtl JP  13:35:35 GMT - 01/05/2022  
Total U.S. Nonfarm Private Employment: 807,000

adpemploymentreport .pdf



Mtl JP  13:39:46 GMT - 01/05/2022  
consensus of experts (typically PhD'd economists) had expected 410,000


Mtl JP  14:08:39 GMT - 01/05/2022  
DLRx 95.97
USD/JPY 115.75
-
me looking for opportune time to long usd
and not just against yen


Belgrade Knez  14:22:16 GMT - 01/05/2022  
 
could this be scenario?



Mtl JP  14:29:47 GMT - 01/05/2022  
EURO 1.1335
-
Res: 1.1340, 50day 1.1364, 80



Mtl JP  15:03:54 GMT - 01/05/2022  
interesting (?)
Draganfly Inc. (DPRO)
NasdaqCM - NasdaqCM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
1.6800-0.0600 (-3.45%)
As of 09:59AM EST. Market open
-
Draganfly Unveils Latest Vital Intelligence Smart Vital Kiosk During CES

the Kiosk can screen, with voluntary consent, temperature, blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation (SpO2) in seconds. The system does not register any personal data of the individual being screened. ... and ... is able to screen, detect, assess, protect and provide continuous action against the potential threat of infectious diseases, including COVID-19.

Featuring a highly customizable camera configuration, the Kiosk can effectively meet the needs of specific events. Accessories such as QR and IR code readers can be incorporated to provide seamless integration with vaccine passports, security badges and other ticketing systems. ...


Mtl JP  17:29:34 GMT - 01/05/2022  
gundlach opines
-
‘The Fed is going to reverse again,’ DoubleLine’s Gundlach says, ‘and this might be the last time’

"DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: 'The yield curve is sending a bona fide recessionary signal’

transcript



Mtl JP  19:07:02 GMT - 01/05/2022  
fomc minutes
-
according to jeff cox

Federal Reserve releases minutes from its December meeting



Mtl JP  19:13:48 GMT - 01/05/2022  
EURO 1.1313
-
Sup 1.1270/80, 1.1250-ish below that 1.1220


Mtl JP  20:23:35 GMT - 01/05/2022  
 
DLRx 96.22
-
DX puppy still prancing around its month and half long 96 pricepoint
and although I am still biased uP, I am curbing my enthusiasm post-fomc mins now that the cat is out of the bag


Mtl JP  22:08:50 GMT - 01/05/2022  
"babson break" -3% or +
-
DJIA -1.07%
NASDAQ 100 -3.12%
S&P 500 -1.94%

lets see how asia digests


Mtl JP  23:31:06 GMT - 01/05/2022  
out of the gate nikkei gapping down


Mtl JP  00:47:31 GMT - 01/06/2022  
caramba !
who is to say the pup is not going to 20K or lower still?
-
CoinDesk
First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Falls Below $44K After Fed Minutes Release.


Israel  MacroMic4o  10:05:14 GMT - 01/06/2022  


PAR 10:20:35 GMT - 01/06/2022  
An ideal day for some share buybacks.

Although US 10-year rates at 1.75% start to reduce the actual value of US future earnings and make US bonds more attractive.


Mtl JP  16:38:08 GMT - 01/06/2022  
Daly s yakking
bullard yaks l8tr


Mtl JP  19:39:38 GMT - 01/06/2022  
 
EURO 1.1299
six weeks now flopping inside a narrowing range
-
almost everything I read about the puppy talks about trip to 1.11/1.10
wonder: why do most folks think that ?


Israel MacroMicro  14:11:32 GMT - 01/07/2022  
EUR/USD @ 1.1315

current weekly range 110 pips

normally, we would witness 135 pips range this week
if normally works this week, we have at least 25 pips to expend from here. so, pick your direction.


Mtl JP  14:16:10 GMT - 01/07/2022  
yields schmields
-
DLRx 96.10
still inside narrow range

at 10nyt non-voter daly yaks about monetary policy


Mtl JP  14:19:44 GMT - 01/07/2022  
EURO 1.1318
-
IF puppy breaks N of HoD
1.1345/50 come on attack radar


Israel MacroMicro  14:23:52 GMT - 01/07/2022  
stop above week's high and hold for few days fits to your weekly EUR/USD chart you so kindly shared.

look further (adjust parameters) at 1.1290, if seen.

personally, opened short @ 1.1322

a plan ?


Mtl JP  14:30:47 GMT - 01/07/2022  
US 10-YR 1.746%, +0.013
and eurdlr 1.1325

looks like someone is being cantankerous


Israel MacroMicro  15:11:45 GMT - 01/07/2022  
Mtl JP 14:19 GMT January 7, 2022

WFAK class accuracy with professor level language


Mtl JP  15:21:02 GMT - 01/07/2022  
EURDLR 1.1345
-
Bingo !


Israel MacroMicro  15:21:40 GMT - 01/07/2022  
nice call/trade JP !!!


Mtl JP  15:41:28 GMT - 01/07/2022  
eurdlr 1.124x
time to dump some as
risk and sl well defined


Mtl JP  15:42:21 GMT - 01/07/2022  
1.124x = typo; s/b 1.134x


Mtl JP  16:04:39 GMT - 01/07/2022  
eurdlr 1.1349
-
shorts and wedgies
go well together today


Israel MacroMicro  16:11:05 GMT - 01/07/2022  
beautiful JP

you and KNEZ seems to be true chess minded FX traders :)


Israel MacroMicro  16:15:42 GMT - 01/07/2022  
the little wider picture...

US Dollar Credit Supply: Lower corporate supply expected in 2022
We forecast lower supply in 2022. We expect corporate supply to amount to US$650bn this year, down from the US$720bn penciled in last year. Similarly, we expect Reverse Yankee supply to fall slightly this year. We forecast €55bn for 2022


Executive summary
Expect corporate supply at US$650bn in 2022, lower than the past couple years

Corporate supply totalled US$720bn in 2021, down of course on the substantial US$1.2tr in 2020, but still sizeable compared to previous years. December was a rather active month for primary markets, with supply pencilling in at US$45bn for the month. This is up considerably on the US$10bn-US$15bn norm for December.

We expect a drop in corporate supply in 2022. We are forecasting USD corporate supply to amount to just US$650bn. Similarly, we forecast US corporate supply (in $ and €) to be lower in 2022 at US$630bn, down from the US$685bn seen last year. The drop is based, similar to European issuance pressures, on the back of factors such as pandemic-related funding needs continuing to subside and high levels of cash on the balance sheet outweighing potential rises in capital expenditure or M&A related issuance.

Reverse Yankee supply totaled €59bn in 2021, down marginally from the €68bn supplied in 2020. This is also on the lower side of the average over the past number of years. We forecast a small drop again in Reverse Yankee supply in 2022, in line with expecting lower supply in general. Historically, Reverse Yankee supply generally accounts for 10% of US corporate supply, which should amount to US$63bn (€55bn). Furthermore, Reverse Yankee supply is on average 19% of Euro corporate supply, which we have forecasted at €290bn. Therefore, we forecast Reverse Yankee supply to hit €55bn in 2022.

Largest financial supply on record, totaling US$563bn in 2021

Last year saw the largest financial supply on record after amounting to a considerable US$563bn. This is up on last year’s record-breaking US$518bn. December penciled in a decent US$20bn in supply, down marginally from the US$28bn seen in 2020. Although this is still a sizeable amount, and above the US$5bn average of previous years.

Timothy Rahill
Credit Strategist


Mtl JP  16:36:57 GMT - 01/07/2022  
MaMi 16:11 I don't trade to make some wife happi


Israel MacroMicro  16:42:00 GMT - 01/07/2022  
JP - MaMi your lucky ex-wife

POTUS Biden doing the yakking show now, the guy is literally saying: 'duck you Wallstreet"



Mtl JP  18:29:01 GMT - 01/07/2022  
EURO 1.1360
shorts squealing, almost deafening (ref "deliverance")
-
N of 50day ... odds r gunning for 1.1386

***

JP 19:39
almost everything I read about the puppy talks about trip to 1.11/1.10
wonder: why do most folks think that ?



Mtl JP  20:21:03 GMT - 01/07/2022  
covid and children hospitalizations
because of covid or with covid
-
CDC's "increadibly hard working" dr walensky

replies (at and on 10:55 min) presser



Mtl JP  20:38:33 GMT - 01/07/2022  
 
DLRx 95.74
what could be called "somewhat softer"
-
raises the Qtn whether players are lowering march fed rate hiking expectations or just gaming for better price

tia for views


Mtl JP  12:47:13 GMT - 01/10/2022  
 
heading into NY
DLRx 95.98
-
still wallowing inside range


Mtl JP  13:16:59 GMT - 01/10/2022  
permission granted
-
"Goldman predicts the Fed will hike rates four times this year, more than previously expected" - cnbc


Mtl JP  14:45:10 GMT - 01/10/2022  
EURO 1.13/1.1290
-
Bias: not uP, not down (s/t)
Friday's climb above 50-day now nega-poofed
BUT neither is the puppy showing eagerness to run towards 1.11/1.10 yet
i.e still looking for a catalyst


Mtl JP  15:10:47 GMT - 01/10/2022  
potential catalysts
-
10-yr N of 1.80: not yet
Fed tightening risk: not yet in an energetic pricing
Wed CPI data print (tks red): 7% + expectation has some potential to awaken players
Wed Beige Book: mild potential
powell and v/chair brainard later this week - probably mild

under current dynamics I am keep robot to BoD usd
side note // interesting pig: usdyen around 115


Mtl JP  16:17:41 GMT - 01/10/2022  
headline
-
"Almost every Federal Reserve meeting in 2022 could be potentially `at play’ for a potential rate hike, Deutsche Bank says"

"could be potentially"
what a f*kp of a non-burger


PAR 18:22:21 GMT - 01/10/2022  
Nice day to do some share buybacks into the NY close. A happy end to a cold Monday.


Mtl JP  19:52:16 GMT - 01/10/2022  
another headline pumping 4 or + raises
-
"Expect more than 4 rate increases in 2022, and a lot of market volatility, says JPMorgan’s Dimon: ‘If we’re lucky’ the Fed can engineer a “soft landing.”

so now , with the PhD'ed "experts" in charge, things hang on being lucky ?!

Why am I getting the feeling that the FED gang won't raise more than - maybe - 3x ?


dc CB  21:32:15 GMT - 01/10/2022  
Less than a week after the outgoing Fed vice-chair was publicly exposed for some suspicious trades surrounding the March 2020 market rout (and recovery), Richard Clarida has pulled the rip-cord on his golden parachute and left The Eccles Building.

The central bank announced on Monday that Clarida, whose four-year term was set to expire at the end of the month, would be departing his position on Friday.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20220110a.htm

Fed Vice Chair Clarida Abandons Ship Two Weeks Early
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-vice-chair-clarida-abandons-ship-two-weeks-early


Mtl JP  22:45:39 GMT - 01/10/2022  
pledge ... not a promise nor oath
note: central bankers are typically and almost always reacting. Typically to un-intended (nobody saw it coming) consequences of their past doings (not to say meddlings)
-
Fed chairman testifies on Tuesday to Senate panel

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to tell Congress Tuesday that the U.S. central bank will take steps to make sure higher inflation seen over the past year will not be allowed to develop deep roots in the economy.

“We will use our tools to support the economy and a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched,” Powell will say, according to a copy of his prepared remarks to the Senate Banking Committee released Monday. .../..

Powell pledges to prevent inflation from developing deep roots Jan. 10, 2022 at 5:14 p.m. By Greg Robb



Mtl JP  22:56:57 GMT - 01/10/2022  
have no fear, powell and brainard are and will be here
still
-
January 11, 2022

Nomination hearing
Chair Jerome H. Powell

Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.

"Four years ago, when I sat before this Committee, few could have predicted the great challenges that would soon become ours to meet."



Mtl JP  05:49:12 GMT - 01/11/2022  
according to the peddler of purity
-
"Frequently people let themselves be influenced by the ideology of the moment, often bolstered by baseless information or poorly documented facts,"

"It is appropriate that institutions such as the World Trade Organisation and the World Intellectual Property Organisation adapt their legal instruments lest monopolistic rules constitute further obstacles to production and to an organised and consistent access to healthcare on a global level,"

COVID-19 vaccination is a 'moral obligation', Pope Francis insists



Mtl JP  06:19:04 GMT - 01/11/2022  
feel the earth ... move ... under my feet
-
A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that management of the coronavirus pandemic, once an issue that strongly favored President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats, is beginning to recede in the minds of Americans.

Just 37% of Americans name the virus as one of their top five priorities for the government to work on in 2022, compared with 53% who said it was a leading priority at the same time a year ago. The economy outpaced the pandemic in the open-ended question, with 68% of respondents mentioning it in some way as a top 2022 concern. A similar percentage said the same last year, but mentions of inflation are much higher now: 14% this year, compared with less than 1% last year.

Inflation up, virus down as priorities in US: AP-NORC poll



Israel MacroMicro  12:44:07 GMT - 01/11/2022  

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
2022 opened @ 1.1370

with all the rate hike mania as steroids for USD talk, now trading @ 1.1340

strange?




Mtl JP  13:21:16 GMT - 01/11/2022  
heading into NY
-
US 2 Yr 0.923%
DLRx 95.89
risk: neutral


Mtl JP  13:30:26 GMT - 01/11/2022  
according to Jesse Pound & Vicky McKeever - CNBC
-
U.S. Treasury yields fell early on Tuesday, as investors waited to see if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would offer further details on policy in his Senate nomination hearing later in the morning.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note moved 2 basis points lower to 1.76% at 7:15 a.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell by 3 basis points to 2.076%.

Treasury yields fall as investors await clues on Fed policy



Mtl JP  14:40:04 GMT - 01/11/2022  
"Goldman predicts the euro area will outgrow the U.S. economy over the next two years" - on cnbc


Mtl JP  15:33:06 GMT - 01/11/2022  
EURO 1.1335-ish
-
50day still Res ahead of 50 and 86


Mtl JP  15:45:39 GMT - 01/11/2022  
euro 50day
-
veni, vidi ... holding sofar


Israel MacroMicro  16:00:28 GMT - 01/11/2022  
JP (Jerome Powell) says clearly: I am clueless, we are clueless, but be assured that all will be fine.



Israel MacroMicro  16:01:45 GMT - 01/11/2022  
"no hike in March rally" in the making


PAR 16:07:49 GMT - 01/11/2022  
Problem is that interest hikes make government borrowing more expensive and the USA needs to borrow gigantic amounts of money despite a booming economy.

Interest rates are too low and US taxes are too low compared to all the government spending preparing to go to war with China and Russia.


GVI Forex 16:32:39 GMT - 01/11/2022  
Spin on Powell hearing is that he was not as hawkish as expected.

Just an excuse to explain market movements as there were no surprises as Fed path seems to be priced in


Israel MacroMicro  16:37:36 GMT - 01/11/2022  
everything is triple A great in lala land aka USA


PAR 16:47:09 GMT - 01/11/2022  
Another happy ending to a cold day in NY.


PAR 17:04:36 GMT - 01/11/2022  
Lack of competition seems to be killing the capitalistic economic system.

Too much consolidation leads to too much lobbying leads to higher prices.


PAR 18:39:36 GMT - 01/11/2022  
US stock could hit record highs this week.


PAR 19:18:40 GMT - 01/11/2022  
Maybe, maybe one US rate hike this summer?


Mtl JP  19:58:26 GMT - 01/11/2022  
DLRx 95.60
-
maybe wed's CPI and th's PPI will elicit a move from market
out of its ranges


Mtl JP  20:08:25 GMT - 01/11/2022  
today again I have acknowledge FED gang's improved savvy in its communication tactics : keeping markets basically calm , no upsets


Mtl JP  21:41:18 GMT - 01/11/2022  
about tom's CPI
-
... "Currently, the U.S. annual inflation rate hovers at 6.8%, measured by the Consumer Price Index. In a year from now, consumers predict it will be closer to 6%, according to the December New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations published Monday. .. . ..

What’s more, a fresh reading on CPI inflation is due on Wednesday. Few economists are on board with the Fed’s forecast that the rate of inflation will ease to 2.6% in 2022. Economists expect annual inflation to rise above 7%." ...

Will inflation continue at the same pace? Like economists, consumers are far more pessimistic than the Fed - By Elisabeth Buchwald



Israel MacroMicro  21:56:52 GMT - 01/11/2022  
Mtl JP 19:58 GMT January 11, 2022

last minute always losing EURO buyers are expected as loud buyers in high gear within 1.1430/80 cluster probably already this week.



Mtl JP  23:54:16 GMT - 01/11/2022  
some opinions
-
Powell says economy can withstand Fed tightening, Omicron - Reuters

Jeffrey Gundlach Sees ‘Recessionary Pressure’ Building With Inflation - Bloomberg

RBC’s McKay Calls for ‘Rapid Action’ on Rates to Tame Inflation - Bloomberg

..."Markets are pricing in at least five Bank of Canada rate hikes this year, beginning as early as Jan. 26, when policy makers will unveil their first rate decision of 2022." ...


dc CB  00:39:26 GMT - 01/12/2022  
Truth or Dare: O' Canada.--(but Canadians are such nice people)

Quebec Set to Impose Tax on Unvaccinated Residents

Nationally, Justin Trudeau's government has been able to impose some of the most restrictive vaccine requirements of any country in the world.

Though those national measures have been criticized for their draconian effects, a provincial Canadian government is set to go even further in its efforts to punish the unvaccinated.

Quebec Premier François Legault revealed that his province plans to impose a tax on its unvaccinated residents. Though the premier's office did not disclose the cost of the tax, it announced the initiative at a press conference scheduled to introduce Dr. Luc Boileau at the province's interim health director who will be tasked with imposing the financial penalty. This measure is the first to be implemented in Canada.


dc CB  00:40:18 GMT - 01/12/2022  
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-01-11/quebec-set-impose-tax-unvaccinated-residents


macao win10  04:59:15 GMT - 01/12/2022  
For the good sake of public health. Thumb up!


GVI Forex 14:57:33 GMT - 01/12/2022  
Good calls on usd direction. CPI proved to be hot as expected but a non-event.

For those looking gif an explanation, read my blog article Why Markets Move or contact me for the video.


Mtl JP  16:52:27 GMT - 01/12/2022  
Fed's Mester backs shrinking balance sheet 'as fast as we can' provided it doesn't cause market disruption - MarketWatch


Mtl JP  16:56:56 GMT - 01/12/2022  
still ahead
-
13:00 - kashkari econ outlook
14:00 - FED's beige book


Mtl JP  17:08:03 GMT - 01/12/2022  
 
DLRx 95
-
on t-line sup


dc CB  17:42:17 GMT - 01/12/2022  
Image of the Day!

Wednesday: Overnight prices sold off 5¢ after the GFS trended 6-7 HDDs warmer by being not as cold Jan 19-23. However, prices spiked violently as the new overnight EC model trended 10 HDDs colder for Jan 19-26. As a result of the overnight GFS trending warmer and the EC colder, the EC is now notably colder than the GFS for Jan 20-26, while forecasting the coldest temperatures and strongest demand so far this winter season.
___________________________________________________
profit opportunities----long and short----whichever way the wind blows, in the coming few weeks.

winter wonderland ---conflicting predictions



Israel MacroMicro  20:21:23 GMT - 01/12/2022  
Mtl JP 17:08 GMT January 12, 2022

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal


Mtl JP  21:15:03 GMT - 01/12/2022  
US stocks end slightly higher
time to handicap asia
-
Fed’s Beige book sees
- that economy grew at 'modest' pace in December
- ‘solid growth’ in prices charged to customers
- that labor shortages and wages added to cost pressures


Mtl JP  22:13:15 GMT - 01/12/2022  
warning: reach for your Depends
-
Fed Governor Lael Brainard says inflation is too high - cnbc
Yla Mui reports on 'Closing Bell' that Fed Governor Lael Brainard says inflation is too high and that the priority is to protect gains and support a full recovery.


Mtl JP  22:18:10 GMT - 01/12/2022  
for posterity
-
Starting in '22, we will see U.S. inflation go down, says IMF's Georgieva
srce: cnbc 1/12/2022


Mtl JP  22:55:42 GMT - 01/12/2022  
Gallup Survey JANUARY 12, 2022
-
A reduced majority of Americans give high marks to military leaders' ethics
Ethics of judges, clergy, grade-school teachers, TV reporters also at new lows
Nurses are top-rated profession for 20th straight year

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup's annual rating of the honesty and ethics of various professions finds five of the 22 occupations rated this year at new lows in public esteem. While the majority of Americans continue to believe military officers have high ethics (61%), the score is down 10 percentage points since it was last measured, in 2017. TV reporters' ethics rating has fallen nine points to 14% over the same period, and judges' has declined five points to 38%.

While down several points since 2020, the perceived ethics of clergy (36%) and grade-school teachers (64%) are just a point or two below their previous all-time lows. .../..

Military Brass, Judges Among Professions at New Image Lows



macao win10  00:25:45 GMT - 01/13/2022  
Illusion? Due to higher base in 2021


Mtl JP  08:18:34 GMT - 01/13/2022  
diaper change ?
-
A perfect storm in the Democratic Party is making a once-unfathomable scenario plausible: a political comeback for Hillary Clinton in 2024.

Several circumstances—President Biden’s low approval rating, doubts over his capacity to run for re-election at 82, Vice President Kamala Harris’s unpopularity, and the absence of another strong Democrat to lead the ticket in 2024—have created a leadership vacuum in the party, which Mrs. Clinton viably could fill.

Hillary Clinton’s 2024 Election Comeback - wsj



Belgrade Knez  08:28:26 GMT - 01/13/2022  
Clinton vs Trump again!?


dc CB  16:21:37 GMT - 01/13/2022  
Mtl JP 08:18 GMT 01/13/2022 - My Profile
diaper change ?
A perfect storm in the Democratic Party is making a once-unfathomable scenario plausible

Better Diapers free for every American---that's the ticket.

The Masks for All Act, which has 15 co-sponsors in the Senate including Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey of Massachusetts, would ensure that all individuals—from college students to medical professionals to the unhoused—would receive a free package of three N95 respirator masks.


Mtl JP  16:40:47 GMT - 01/13/2022  
grettAAaaaa-aargh !
-
Brainard says Fed won’t ban bank lending to oil and gas sector or gun manufacturers - MarketWatch


Jkt Abel  17:15:47 GMT - 01/13/2022  
Clearly buy gold dips above 1810-1812


Jkt Abel  17:29:24 GMT - 01/13/2022  
Need to stay above 1820 this month then all good for bullish year for gold


dc CB  17:34:23 GMT - 01/13/2022  
The Dow finally joined Small Caps, S&P, and Nasdaq in the red as the European close appears to have triggered a mass-panic puke in all the US majors...

Looking for a catalyst - good luck ZH


dc CB  17:42:02 GMT - 01/13/2022  
Hey PAR ---meet Ms PPT

Lorie Logan on Monetary Policy Operations, the Fed’s New Standing Repo Facility, and the Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet
A closer look at the plumbing and structure of U.S. monetary policy.

---Lorie Logan is an executive vice president in the Markets Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In that role, she’s the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA), for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and she is also the head of the market operations, monitoring, and analysis. Lorie joins Macro Musings to talk about the operations side of monetary policy and her work at the New York Fed.

the current 'Simon Potter"



Mtl JP  17:48:52 GMT - 01/13/2022  
verbs & past tense
-
CB 17:34 - arrrRRrrgh !!
duh ... I can't believe that that is your best

possibility for redemption:
13:00 gamma is peddling 22bn of 30Yr paper
how will it fair: __ __ __


dc CB  17:59:14 GMT - 01/13/2022  
link

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-all-just-puked-red


Mtl JP  18:00:18 GMT - 01/13/2022  
using up my Depends stuff
-
12:39 Treasury yields hold steady after Brainard says combating inflation is Fed’s most important task for foreseeable future

12:37 Richmond Fed’s Barkin said interest-rate hikes to depend how quickly inflation slows
-- MarketWatch

the above a follow-up to hawk mester and semi-hawk bullard who both yesterday "guided" that it is likely that a tightening grab of inflation's balls in order to tame it is coming


Mtl JP  19:54:46 GMT - 01/13/2022  
3M Co. 180.95 +1.53 (+0.85%)
3M 'committed' to making N95 masks available for everyone
just as
Supreme Court Halts
- Biden's Vaccine Requirement for Businesses and
- blocks vaccine-or-test rule for businesses


dc CB  20:11:18 GMT - 01/13/2022  
ever wear an N95 mask for an extended period of time while working---like installing insulation or sanding drywall? Kinda limits the amt of air as well as particles. Just a great idea for kids to have to wear these masks in school all day. 'Gee little jonny/janey seems dull and listless these days since the N95 school mandate...Ya think he/she is getting enough Oxygen????? Ya think?.



london red  20:12:18 GMT - 01/13/2022  
$hit about to get real folks. blood on streets tomorrow. esp for those on cathys ark.


dc CB  20:13:29 GMT - 01/13/2022  
Bond-land:

Despite Modest Tail, 30Y Auction Is Solid With Strong Foreign Demand
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-modest-tail-30y-auction-solid-strong-foreign-demand

Nomura Fears "Fatigued" Bond Bears Face Imminent Squeeze As The Fed Is "Generally Priced-In"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-fears-fatigued-bond-bears-face-imminent-squeeze-fed-generally-priced


dc CB  20:20:02 GMT - 01/13/2022  
Mtl JP 19:54

there are still some editorial cartoonists around.

guess who appointed her



lakewood jjlkwd  20:53:22 GMT - 01/13/2022  
nasdaq futures setting up for lowest close since oct 26...


PAR 08:27:17 GMT - 01/14/2022  
Hey dc CB

Interesting article - THE WOMEN OF THE PPT.

Basically the PPT is running a 24/7 kind of financial NATO operation to prevent markets to become disorderly and to make sure the markets behave like the USA wants the markets to behave.

Logan: In terms of my day-to-day, I think my kids, who've had just a really unique and front row seat as we've been working remotely during the pandemic, describe it best. They say my day starts very early and is jam-packed with meetings. And I think that's pretty accurate. My day does begin early. Often starting on an international call before 7:00 AM, but some staff come in even earlier around 4:00 to begin monitoring overseas markets. And then we all come together each morning at 9:05 to discuss our operations and how we're interpreting markets.


Mtl JP  08:43:10 GMT - 01/14/2022  
red 20:12 - variously credited to baron rothschild or sheldon adelson
-
“Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”


Mtl JP  08:52:48 GMT - 01/14/2022  
macron's polls up ?
as PAR likes to ask "who else" knows/knew:
-
Francois de Beaupuy
Fri., January 14, 2022, 3:35 a.m.

(Bloomberg) -- Electricite de France SA plunged by a record as much as 25% as the French government confirmed plans to force it to sell more power at a steep discount to protect households from surging wholesale electricity prices. .../


Mtl JP  09:03:49 GMT - 01/14/2022  
moving goal posts ; making gretta happi
-
Reuters January 13, 2022
No issue with EU airport slot rule, no sign of ghost flights, EU says

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Europe's use it or lose it airport slot rule has not created issues for airlines during the COVID-19 pandemic nor is there any evidence of carriers operating ghost flights because of the rule, a senior European Commission official said on Thursday.

"From our perspective, it is an unnecessary fuss. We actually have no evidence from any airline including Lufthansa on any amount of empty flights being operated," the official told reporters. .../

poof ! case closed. next


Mtl JP  09:19:45 GMT - 01/14/2022  
greed the beautiful. or not
-
Reuters January 12, 2022
Corporate bosses "pay lip service" to integrity standards - EY survey

LONDON (Reuters) - Corporate leaders are prepared to pay lip service to integrity standards, overlook internal vetting processes and rationalise unethical behaviour in a battle for survival as the COVID-19 pandemic enters its third year, a global EY report says.

In a warning to corporate legal and compliance departments, EY said 18% of board members told the survey they would mislead auditors or regulators to improve their pay or bonuses, up from 14% in a 2020 report.

In addition, 17% would ignore unethical behaviour by third parties and 15% would falsify financial records. .../


Mtl JP  09:29:12 GMT - 01/14/2022  
 
skid arrested
-
raises Q: what do they know ?


PAR 09:42:19 GMT - 01/14/2022  
At € 10 EDF was a real value stock according to some French financial commentators. Yesterday I was looking at the shares. Luckily just looking.

13 seems to be my lucky number.


PAR 12:52:09 GMT - 01/14/2022  
dc CB 17:42 GMT 01/13/2022


Hi dc. What is Lorie Logan thinking this morning?


Mtl JP  14:39:28 GMT - 01/14/2022  
EURO 1.1338
-
Res 1.1482 and 100-day
Sup 1.1450/35/00


Mtl JP  14:40:45 GMT - 01/14/2022  
duh 1.1338 s/be => 1.1438


Mtl JP  17:58:22 GMT - 01/15/2022  
wisdom plum from stanley reed in NYT
-
Oil Producers Aren’t Keeping Up With Demand, Causing Prices to Stay High

OPEC Plus, the United States and others have been slow to ramp up output, lagging production goals. .../


Mtl JP  18:11:40 GMT - 01/15/2022  
lael according to jeanna smialek at NYT
-
"the central bank is focused on getting price gains back down"

- predicts that the Fed will engineer a soft economic landing.
Ms. Brainard, nominated to be the Federal Reserve’s vice chair, expects workers will come back as the economy chugs along, she told a Senate committee.



macao win10  12:54:33 GMT - 01/16/2022  
Rising commodity price is beneficial to many parties. Oil price may shoot over $200 by 2024


Mtl JP  16:59:58 GMT - 01/16/2022  
how's the market collective pricing odds of FED's hiking
-
FedWatch Tool
"Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool"

CME FedWatch Tool



Israel MacroMicro  17:55:09 GMT - 01/16/2022  
good summary of the bigger picture within the ECB

Source: Financial Times



Mtl JP  01:09:09 GMT - 01/17/2022  
poof ! coronavirus
-
January 16, 2022 LONDON (AP) — Anti-poverty organization Oxfam called Monday for governments to impose a one-time 99% tax on the world's billionaires and use the money to fund expanded production of vaccines for the poor — part of an effort to combat global inequality widened by the coronavirus pandemic. .../


Israel MacroMicro  03:24:36 GMT - 01/17/2022  
Mtl JP 01:09 GMT January 17, 2022

now you really have realistic reasons for sleepless nights, they are really after you.


Mtl JP  07:40:45 GMT - 01/17/2022  
$42,866
Interesting ...
-
Opinion By Lawrence Lewitinn
CoinDesk Insights
.."the cost of borrowing to buy crypto on leverage has fallen to the point where it’s slightly negative. That implies that demand for money to make leveraged bets has taken a hit." ...

The wind seems to be out of crypto’s sails for now.

Derivatives Data Shows Softening Crypto Enthusiasm



Israel MacroMicro  18:31:57 GMT - 01/17/2022  


Entry: Target: Stop:
the link is to PDF file published earlier today

JP on video reading it, gonna get billions of views on YouTube 😁

OXFAM inequality kills - full report



dc CB  20:27:04 GMT - 01/17/2022  
OPEX week---again from the Greeks.
Submitted by SpotGamma, access to a full list of stocks with estimated impact is available at the end of this note**

125 Billion Reasons For A Volatility Spike After Friday's "Deep" Options Expiration



GVI Forex 08:14:08 GMT - 01/18/2022  
Risk off

Us yields up, stocks down


GVI Forex 11:12:56 GMT - 01/18/2022  
1.1385 exposed but held overnight test

EURUSD
GVI Forex 13:58 GMT 01/17/2022 - My Profile
1.1385 was last week’s AT breakout level so the key level on the downside that needs to hold to keep a bid .

The Amazing Trader



GVI Forex 13:18:05 GMT - 01/18/2022  
It took some work until 1.1384 was firmly broken so back into its old range while below it.


Amman wfakhoury  13:25:03 GMT - 01/18/2022  
GVI Forex 13:18 GMT 01/18/2022 - My Profile
It took some work until 1.1384 was firmly broken so back into its old range while below it.
____________________________________________________
Ref my active signal ..11363 and others below it will be reached.


GVI Forex 15:04:43 GMT - 01/18/2022  
Next AT target EURUSD 1.1354 (watch 1.1350 as well)


Israel MacroMicro  15:33:30 GMT - 01/18/2022  
1.1384 is the key level for short term from here, 1.1380/1.1410 houses now sellers for short term.


lakewood jjlkwd  15:38:56 GMT - 01/18/2022  
low/high for the week in euro is usually set on monday. this holiday shortened week (i)will go with tuesday . will see results end of week.
--------------------------
from technical point of view closing below the breakout level of 1.1385 would look bearish.


Mtl JP  15:41:23 GMT - 01/18/2022  
Inflation - what it is; how it happens; who is behind it
warning: have Depends ready
-
'How'd You Get It So Wrong?': John Kennedy wants to know

tries to explain (.vid)

Lael Brainard, nominee to be Vice Chairman Designate on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System



Israel MacroMicro  15:51:20 GMT - 01/18/2022  
1.1348 long for 15/20 pips is my trade now


Mtl JP  15:57:19 GMT - 01/18/2022  
"risk" down about -1.51%
-
bond vigilantes still rather tame


Mtl JP  16:09:11 GMT - 01/18/2022  
 
GS $350-ish
BTFD; consider the gap
-
Goldman Sachs stock tumbling $30.51 toward a record price decline
- MarketWatch


Mtl JP  16:56:05 GMT - 01/18/2022  
ahhh ... sympathy
-
BTC $41,742.49 -1.15%


lakewood jjlkwd  17:06:41 GMT - 01/18/2022  
3 month ranges have ramifications and breakouts have the upper hand until proven to be fake. todays action has yet to prove anything,only provide a lower risk entry to go with the break.


Amman wfakhoury  17:18:16 GMT - 01/18/2022  
GVI Forex 13:18 GMT 01/18/2022 - My Profile
It took some work until 1.1384 was firmly broken so back into its old range while below it.
------------------------------------------------------
all reached


Amman wfakhoury  17:24:17 GMT - 01/18/2022  
Amman wfakhoury 13:25 GMT 01/18/2022
GVI Forex 13:18 GMT 01/18/2022 - My Profile
It took some work until 1.1384 was firmly broken so back into its old range while below it.
____________________________________________________
Ref my active signal ..11363 and others below it will be reached.


GVI Forex 18:08:34 GMT - 01/18/2022  
 
I call this an AT roadmap. See chart

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  18:20:30 GMT - 01/18/2022  
..."the bond market’s view that the Federal Reserve may deliver a greater-than-expected 50 basis point rate hike in March. ... .. Evidence of those more aggressive expectations could be seen in fed funds futures, which were pricing in a more-than-100% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in March as of early Tuesday, strategists said. That implies some chance of a greater-than-expected 50-basis-point increase, they said — a size that the Fed last delivered in May 2000." .../.

Investors return from three-day break to a market bracing for more aggressive start to Federal Reserve’s rate-hike campaign reports Vivien Lou Chen



Mtl JP  19:07:51 GMT - 01/18/2022  
oh oh ... worry or new opps at the IMF ?
or a tip:
-
Financial Times
Poorest countries face $11bn surge in debt repayments
World Bank warns of risk of ‘disorderly defaults’ as pandemic-era relief scheme expires.


Mtl JP  05:40:54 GMT - 01/19/2022  
 
asia "risk" aping NY
US 10-yr 1.877% +0.009 vs 1.89% High
-
earlier trivia :
"Due to technical difficulties, today’s Treasury outright purchase operation - scheduled for 10:10 AM in the 4.5 to 7 year sector for up to $6.025 billion - is being rescheduled."



Mtl JP  05:44:49 GMT - 01/19/2022  
 
DAX 15661
euro 1.1331
-
german sitting on S priceline
feel free to chose side


GVI Forex 11:05:22 GMT - 01/19/2022  
 
This is why we call AT amazing. See this post and the chart posted with it (low yesterday was 1.1314).

mkt
GVI Forex 18:08 GMT 01/18/2022 - My Profile
I call this an AT roadmap. See chart


GVI Forex 13:40:29 GMT - 01/19/2022  
US housing data misses to upside


GVI Forex 15:17:05 GMT - 01/19/2022  
EURUSD is back into its old range (last 1.1347)

USD is a touch softer elsewhere but EURUSD struggling at 1.1350-54 (former AT support). AT beta (follows the logic of our high-low reversal strategy) is short at 1.1351, stop above HOD, 3;1 risk/reward.

Modest risk on but tentative as stocks giving back gains.

Quiet FF reflects the broader market.

Feel free to add your comments.


GVI Forex 15:46:02 GMT - 01/19/2022  
3:1 reached. Ask me for access details..

The Amazing Trader



uk 17:39:05 GMT - 01/19/2022  
Glad it's behaving again


GVI Forex 20:46:47 GMT - 01/20/2022  
Let’s keep it simple.

Stocks took a u turn (down) => dollar followed (up)


dc CB  22:39:58 GMT - 01/20/2022  
 
as a reminder ----those holding SPX Options are no longer able to exit.
Where these Options end up----in the money, out of the money-aka worthless, is now in the hands of Futures overnight and where the Futures can force the Cash Open to be.
The Settlement is Based on the Opening Range-----Gaps will be good for some, bad for others.

Who holds the Option and Who SOLD the Option to the Holder.


Israel MacroMicro  23:27:14 GMT - 01/20/2022  
the timing of the pullback suggests some strong move up to save some dealers. another leg down directly is great with me but it may cause serious chaos among some dealers, very volatile overnight Friday ahead for US equities.

imo


PAR 09:56:02 GMT - 01/21/2022  
dc CB

Guess S&P futures opening at 4500 will make everybody happy.

Another happy end to a difficult week.


Mtl JP  11:26:11 GMT - 01/21/2022  
like a "good company (wo)man"
some squeaking from "the $7.2 million fee speaker who has not revealed her speaking fees for 2018"
-
-- Treasury Secretary Yellen defended the Biden administration’s economic achievements and said that she hopes to see inflation closer to 2% by the end of 2022.

-- “I think it has to be viewed as a remarkable success that the unemployment has fallen the most in a year in American history,” Yellen said.

-- Yellen reiterated President Joe Biden’s comments agreeing with the Fed’s expected plan to “recalibrate” monetary policy with inflation at 7%.

Yellen defends Biden’s economic record, says she sees path to slower inflation



Mtl JP  11:35:34 GMT - 01/21/2022  
what an excuse of a PhD:
-
“I expect inflation throughout much of the year – 12-month changes – to remain above 2%,” she said. “But if we’re successful in controlling the pandemic, I expect inflation to diminish over the course of the year and hopefully revert to normal levels by the end of the year around 2%.” yellen JAN 20 2022


Mtl JP  14:51:49 GMT - 01/21/2022  
BTC/USDT 38,608.65 -9.77%
-
yesterday my dealer sent thi e-mail:
"Big news for NFT fans as Coinbase will soon begin accepting Mastercard in their NFT marketplace.

This means no more using wallets, and no more buying tokens to purchase NFTs.

How will this move the price of Coinbase when the market opens today?

How will you respond to this news?"


Mtl JP  15:40:41 GMT - 01/21/2022  
Probing mind wants to know: Are dominos falling?
-
"Mozilla stops accepting cryptocurrency, Wikipedia may be next"


Mtl JP  16:43:16 GMT - 01/21/2022  
player sentiment
FOMC next week figures
-
10yr back under 1.8; gains on week now poof!
Odds are low that the FEDs will do a one-eighty on their tightening theme that they have cultivated of late.

risk should remain wobbly and selectively trading usd (relative yields theme) should yield posi-pips


Mtl JP  17:02:28 GMT - 01/21/2022  
from the sherlocks of history at barron's:
-
"Cryptocurrency markets were in turmoil on Friday as Russia eyed a ban on Bitcoin while a sell-off in U.S. equities continued to roil the crypto space."

don't you like verbs in past tense ?

Crypto Is in Turmoil as Russia Eyes a Ban on Bitcoin



dc CB  17:53:59 GMT - 01/21/2022  
NYC Mayor Adams Set To Take His First Paycheck In Bitcoin And Ethereum

..hasn't been shy about his willingness to make the Big Apple the crypto capital of the U.S. Now, he's putting his money where his mouth is...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nyc-mayor-adams-set-take-his-first-paycheck-bitcoin-and-ethereum


dc CB  22:13:59 GMT - 01/21/2022  
Two farmers selling a pig back and forth for $5 more each time. One slaughters it. The other says, "We were getting rich off that pig."

h/t Dave Collum


dc CB  01:16:29 GMT - 01/22/2022  
PAR, JP, that MiroMiniMe Guy.


Repeat this day after day as you drink that cup-a...coffee

cheers y'all

turn to wake-up to: Money



Mtl JP  13:06:37 GMT - 01/22/2022  
... frustrated ?
-
... "My advice to everyone out there who's frustrated, sad, angry, pissed off.. have a margarita" ...

Psaki advises



Mtl JP  14:57:52 GMT - 01/22/2022  
little comfort, one question
wind of panic on w/s: simple correction or prolonged depression?
-
a breeze of panic blew on Wall Street this week and after Nasdaq's priceaction - down more than 15% from mid-nov record - of this last week headlines are alleging players are wondering if the market will stop at a correction or if we - collectively in the wide economy - are approaching a (prolonged ?) depression.
Pundits are co-mingling digressionary risk for the economy with risk to Biden's administration.

The S&P 500 - a broader market representation - is down 8.3% ytd.

Netflix had -21.79% spectacular crap on Friday. From approx november $700 high puppy is at around $400. That much for peasants having their gizzards (401 savings plans) stuffed by wallstreet peddlers. So far it appears the w/s wizzards are pinning the blame on sleepi joe.

Headlines appear to rationalize that it is the prospect of interest rate hikes by the Fed - allegedly interested in curbing inflation - that is shaking Wall Street. And so now pundits are punditing about how much of a correction to turn into a “bear market” and are generally arguing that the US economy is still expected to grow vigorously in 2022 as it recovers (yellen's theme) from the impact of the pandemic just as "expert" forecasters are cutting down their projections. (4.2% from 4.6%) And so the "blame" is being pinned on the FED and the expected duration of inflation.

As the good economist pundits that they are there is always that "on the other hand" obligatory missive by the kabuki optimists: the correction, if not too prolonged (whatever that is), is healthy in overvalued market (who had known, eh?). And suddenly the P/E ratio as key indicator of stock valuation is being trotted out and made out to make sense of the market (currently at 21.2x for S&P 500). And this good-old metric is now illustrating musings about this and that correction on the time-line ... and how quickly and massively what level of correction gets corrected itself.


Mtl JP  23:12:59 GMT - 01/22/2022  
pundits a-buzz
-
BTC/USDT (alleged “digital gold”) 34,850.09
24H High 36,803.43
24H Low 34,038.83

It appears that "Bitcoin’s decline from its peak has wiped out more than $600 billion in market value, and over $1 trillion has been lost from the aggregate crypto market."

and here come the gov't types (just not soon nuff) lead by ...
(Bloomberg) White House Is Set to Put Itself at Center of U.S. Crypto Policy
Biden administration said to aim for February executive order
Directive would call for reports from federal agencies

The Biden administration is preparing to release an initial government-wide strategy for digital assets as soon as next month and task federal agencies with assessing the risks and opportunities that they pose, according to people familiar with the matter. .../.

I wonder ... is $1 trillion wipe-off somehow "tightening".


Mtl JP  15:19:03 GMT - 01/23/2022  
GBP 1.3555 / EUR/GBP 8368
Hear ye, hear ye! peasants

In her first speech as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Catherine L. Mann (PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) talks about why inflation rates have been high in recent months. She also looks at how long this period is likely to last and what monetary policy can do about it.
-
"What monetary policy needs to do now is to temper the 2022 expectations for wage and price increases to prevent them from being embedded in the decision-making of firms and consumers."

"- a teaser. (for the non-peasants ?) In addition to the external forces of demand and supply that have loomed large in the evolution of UK inflation in 2021, going forward there is another important external factor relevant for UK economic performance. Policy actions by other central banks have cross-border ramifications which will be important for the Committee to consider."

On returning inflation back to target
Speech given by Catherine L. Mann, External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England



macao win10  15:54:01 GMT - 01/23/2022  
Bitcoin: Without multiple deep throat (50-60%) corrections to wipe out weak bulls, the 4 year target of 1.2 million may not come true...


Mtl JP  17:33:23 GMT - 01/24/2022  
Panic-like , wtfk is that ?
-
Panic-like selling emerges Monday as stock market tumbles and Dow skids over 1,000 points - By Mark DeCambre


Mtl JP  19:53:26 GMT - 01/24/2022  
should be priced-in already, if not, soon:
-
WSJ - Inflation Poses Risks of Faster, Less Predictable Fed Rate Increases
The Fed is entering an unfamiliar environment at the start of 2022. For the first time in decades, officials are prep.../ blablabla

Bloomberg - Sorry, Stock Traders, the Fed Won’t Have Your Back
Sanguine credit markets and a nudge from President Biden to deal with inflation will keep the central bank on track to .../..blablabla


dc CB  21:12:54 GMT - 01/24/2022  
Zero Hedge headline to warm PAR's heart:

PPT Rescues S&P From Worst-Ever Start To A Year

At its lows today, the S&P 500 had never - ever since 1920 - started a year as badly as 2022...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ppt-rescues-sp-worst-ever-start-year-rate-hike-odds-tumble


dc CB  21:37:53 GMT - 01/24/2022  
 
heard during cocktails this evening at the Eccles Building.
Double martinis all round.

Toots and the Maytals



PAR 08:07:58 GMT - 01/25/2022  
dc

Looking at yesterday's markets I guess what drove the massive short squeeze were share buybacks by the big tech companies aided by the PPT.

For months now the SEC is saying that share buybacks should be reported the next day. But nobody is doing anything about it so we just have to guess. If share buybacks were reported immediately that would make the markets much more transparent.


Mtl JP  11:15:29 GMT - 01/25/2022  
what is the choice betting flavor du jour :
GOLD: 1838 (slightly down)
Brent: 86.42 (slightly uP from it very recent low)
EURCHF 1.0379 (the swiss is down)

Is it the FED or odds of "Russia-Ukraine situation deteriorating"

"Certainly no, I do not think there is anything new that can increase the feeling of fear about an immediate attack, no. And about the threat that could represent the presence of Russian troops in Belarus and the threat not to Ukraine, but to Lithuania, neither." borrel from 11:05 link


Mtl JP  14:47:52 GMT - 01/25/2022  
BTC/USDT 36,719.36 +9.10%
24H High 37,454.19
24H Low 33,101.68
----
time for schadenfreude
if u r so inclined:

Bloomberg - Retail Traders Bailed on the Market Right Before Stocks Rebounded
Wondering what the force was that turned an orderly decline into a full-blown rout this morning? Mom and pop bailing.


Mtl JP  15:08:34 GMT - 01/25/2022  
INFLATION
remember that , besides insulting the reporter's mother, biden said that inflation is a "great asset"


Mtl JP  16:05:51 GMT - 01/25/2022  
EURO 1.1275
-
Close under 1.1290 would bode for 1.1250/25
Res 1.1290, 1.1300/35


Mtl JP  16:36:37 GMT - 01/25/2022  
kabuki curtesy cnbc
-
CNBC Fed Survey forecasts more aggressive Fed, but better economic growth

IMF cuts 2022 global growth forecast as U.S., China recovery wanes


Mtl JP  16:43:01 GMT - 01/25/2022  
like a country fireman ...
saving the basement:
-
- SEC chairman Gary Gensler said Monday that agency staff are considering tougher cybersecurity rules for an array of financial actors, like advisors, brokerage firms and publicly traded companies.

- Economic loss from cyber hacks extends into the billions and perhaps trillions of dollars.

- Investors are at risk of losing savings and personally identifiable information to criminals, Gensler said.

"I am from the gov't and I am here to help save you"

SEC chair eyes tougher cyber rules to protect investors against hackers



Mtl JP  17:58:19 GMT - 01/25/2022  
USD/CAD 1.2629
game on
-
BoC rate tom
letsee how long usdcad hold up its bid


dc CB  18:28:45 GMT - 01/25/2022  
By Mike Every of Rabobank

“Welcome to Fed Club. The first rule of Fed Club is: you do not talk about Fed Club. The second rule of Fed Club is: you DO NOT talk about Fed Club! Third rule of Fed Club: if someone yells “stop!”, goes limp, or taps out, the Fed is over.”

"Fed Club Was The Beginning. Now It’s Moved Out Of The Basement, It's Called Project Mayhem"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-club-was-beginning-now-its-moved-out-basement-its-called-project-mayhem


dc CB  18:32:17 GMT - 01/25/2022  
The Cult of Schwab

'That's all folks'



dc CB  18:40:15 GMT - 01/25/2022  
Another day, and another stellar Treasury auction.

After yesterday's blockbuster 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $55 billion in 5Y paper in what can again only be described as a stellar sale.

But like yesterday, it was the internals that were most notable, with Indirect, i.e., foreign, demand surging from an already elevated 65.7% in December to 68.72%, the highest since Sept 2017.

ZeroHedge link



dc CB  18:44:32 GMT - 01/25/2022  
PS
the 7 year auction goes off Thurs----post FOMC


Mtl JP  18:52:16 GMT - 01/25/2022  
gaming the FED
-
according to ex-governor Quarles who resigned last month:
Fed will raise its policy interest rate above the inflation rate ‘sooner rather than later,’


Mtl JP  23:41:30 GMT - 01/25/2022  
gaming the FED part II
-
VIX N of 30 at 31.15 (rather high to some)
DLRx smack on its 50-day
EURO 1.1302

Bottom Line
At single decision point I ll be looking for opportunities to buy USD on potential dips.
I am still biased usd bull


Mtl JP  23:47:54 GMT - 01/25/2022  
nikkei 27175
with wishi-washi us stocks close
I do not expect anything more than wait-n-see from asia


Israel MacroMicro  02:13:55 GMT - 01/26/2022  
Chinese Santa rally, why not?


Mtl JP  10:57:07 GMT - 01/26/2022  
to help de-confuse gaming the FED
curtesy Greg Robb
-
4 things to watch when the Fed meets Wednesday

How Jerome Powell may try to calm the market’s frazzled nerves



Mtl JP  11:08:41 GMT - 01/26/2022  
wet noodle headline
-
Biden to meet Wednesday with CEOs of GM, HP, other companies as he tries again to push Build Back Better Act

"The president will meet with CEOs who support passing Build Back Better to discuss the ways his Build Back Better agenda will make the U.S. economy more competitive, increase worker productivity and workforce participation, lower inflation over the long-term, and strengthen business growth,"

the White House official said



Mtl JP  11:11:35 GMT - 01/26/2022  
VIX on the move
-
28.59 down-2.57 (-8.25%)


Mtl JP  14:52:24 GMT - 01/26/2022  
USDCAD 1.2570
top of the hour
-
BoC rate decision

Me thinkings:
1.2500 on radar, maybe lower



Mtl JP  15:02:09 GMT - 01/26/2022  
surprise !
-
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, removes exceptional forward guidance

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ %, with the Bank Rate at ½ % and the deposit rate at ¼ %.


Mtl JP  15:07:53 GMT - 01/26/2022  
BoC leader yaks at top of the hour
-
FOMC at 2pm
powell yaks at 2:30pm


Mtl JP  15:15:11 GMT - 01/26/2022  
EURO 1.1286
-
Bear bias
So far approaches to 1.13 and + have met sellers
1.1270 s/t Support
Puppy will need to break S of 1.1250 for trip to 1.12
Res 1.13, 1.1350-ish


GVI Forex 15:20:01 GMT - 01/26/2022  
No change from the BOC

Suggests some CBS may be waiting for the Fed to hike first.


Mtl JP  15:34:58 GMT - 01/26/2022  
Jay do you expect FED will hike today ?

My spy says NO.


Mtl JP  15:38:58 GMT - 01/26/2022  
The Fed “is likely to strike a more dovish tone relative to extreme investor expectations, which could trigger an equity rebound,” wrote strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas

Stock-market selloff is so overdone, the bar is low for a positive Fed surprise, say JPMorgan analysts



GVI Forex 16:07:11 GMT - 01/26/2022  
BoC press conference starting.. hawkish opening comments

Fed- no hike but should signal one in March


Israel MacroMicro  16:51:13 GMT - 01/26/2022  
judging from the price action, I think the nuke from the FED will come in regards of the balance sheet shrinking. size and speed to cause the shock waves. the coming weeks. imo


Mtl JP  17:25:03 GMT - 01/26/2022  
gather around kids
story time and
likely FOMC and jerome yak preview
-
"As the pandemic fades, conditions will normalize, and inflation will come down."

Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement - Tiff Macklem



Mtl JP  17:39:36 GMT - 01/26/2022  
"inflation is an asset" - biden
-
WTI 87.75


Mtl JP  17:42:14 GMT - 01/26/2022  
actually biden said "That's a great asset, more inflation,"


Mtl JP  18:35:59 GMT - 01/26/2022  
Bloomberg - "Stocks Trading on Fumes Probably Aren’t Keeping the Fed Awake
Don’t count on the Federal Reserve to ride to the stock market’s rescue so quickly this time."


Israel MacroMicro  18:38:45 GMT - 01/26/2022  
in short, the clueless FED to show "the hawkish dove, in dovish hawkish reality"


Mtl JP  18:42:59 GMT - 01/26/2022  
according to Ruskin
-
list of 11 arguments “that bulls and bear can use to counterpunch each other.”

Equity market won’t be a ‘one-way street’ as hiking cycle gets under way: Deutsche Bank’s Ruskin



Mtl JP  19:03:21 GMT - 01/26/2022  
the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent


Mtl JP  19:34:53 GMT - 01/26/2022  
hehe
"will soon be appropriate’ to lift interest rates" ...

thanks jerome u funny one


GVI Forex 19:46:13 GMT - 01/26/2022  
FX following bond yields (firmer) as Powell speaks.


dc CB  20:35:39 GMT - 01/26/2022  
TSLA reports after the Close today.
just about the only stock holding up Cathie Woods ARKK ponzi ETF


Mtl JP  08:33:06 GMT - 01/27/2022  
 
EURO 1.1198
I like the obvious trades
-
but kids ... prey tell which way is the puppy going next ?


Belgrade Knez  08:36:12 GMT - 01/27/2022  
 
maybe this


Mtl JP  16:30:47 GMT - 01/27/2022  
Bangkok KC re Kepp selling USD against all major
-
what tolerance for pain ?


Mtl JP  16:41:10 GMT - 01/27/2022  
 
USDx 97.11
-
consider odds of puppy heading to 100 and +


Israel MacroMicro  16:50:21 GMT - 01/27/2022  
14180 good area to load longs with NQ for 14400+ this week and 14750+ next week from here.

now @ 14330


Bangkok KC  17:21:21 GMT - 01/27/2022  
Mtl JP//
what tolerance for pain ?

Around 100 pips stop loss for Euro, GBP and AUD


PAR 17:23:30 GMT - 01/27/2022  
Stock markets setup for a black Friday crash?


Mtl JP  17:47:30 GMT - 01/27/2022  
USDCAD 1.2727
-
my tealeaf reading says puppy is near or at rich level
fwiw


PAR  18:24:48 GMT - 01/27/2022  
DOW 20000?


dc CB  19:32:06 GMT - 01/27/2022  
Solid, Stopping Through 7Y Auction Boosted By Surge In Direct Demand

After two stellar auctions, including a blockbuster 2Y and a record-beating 5Y earlier this week, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week's coupon issuance when it sold $53BN in 7 year paper in yet another strong auction.

Overall, a solid if hardly remarkable auction, and the weakest of this week's three coupon sales, although considering how strong the 2Y and 5Y sales were, this is hardly a criticism

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/solid-stopping-through-7y-auction-boosted-surge-direct-demand


dc CB  19:34:59 GMT - 01/27/2022  
"Markets have been wearing beer goggles for the longest time...they just assume the Fed's going to bail them out."

former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who has developed a reputation for his blunt talk about ZIRP and its consequences, joined CNBC's "Squawk Box" for an interview.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-fisher-market-must-take-beer-goggles-because-powells-not-coming-rescue


dc CB  19:39:11 GMT - 01/27/2022  
Jan 22 Baseline Dry Powder. ----1.5trillion
Today's count
Treasury 1,583.895 BLN -----(1.5 TRILLION)

Reverse Repo Operations
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/data-hub



dc CB  21:27:36 GMT - 01/27/2022  
February U.S. natural gas futures violently surged Thursday in what appears to be a delivery squeeze into expiration.

Bloomberg's Javier Blas had some early insight that something was amiss...

Something is happening in the US natural gas market
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) January 27, 2022

Around 1400 ET, natgas contracts for February jumped as much as 72% in minutes, the most significant increase ever since the contract launched in 1990, according to Bloomberg, citing a spokesperson for CME Group.

US NatGas Futures Explode Higher Into Chaotic Expiration



dc CB  21:34:14 GMT - 01/27/2022  
 
Windows abound


Mtl JP  08:00:13 GMT - 01/28/2022  
PAR 18:24 - DOW 20000?
-
no, it is at 34k.
maybe something wrong with your internet connection


HK Kevin  16:02:20 GMT - 01/31/2022  
Great trade, MM.
Israel MacroMicro 16:50 GMT January 27, 2022
mkt: Reply
14180 good area to load longs with NQ for 14400+ this week and 14750+ next week from here.


Mtl JP  18:03:40 GMT - 01/31/2022  
yik
-
Fed’s George calls for sharp reduction in size of bank’s $8.9 trillion balance sheet
“With inflation running at close to a 40-year high, considerable momentum in demand growth, and abundant signs and reports of labor market tightness, the current very accommodative stance of monetary policy is out of sync with the economic outlook,” voter George

yak
Fed’s Daly backs ‘gradual’ pace of rate hikes
Central bank must not ‘overreact’ and slow the economy too sharply, San Francisco Fed president says
“We are not behind the curve. We’re not trying to combat some vicious wage-price spiral,”. “you have to be data dependent but you also have to be gradual and not disruptive,” Daly said. “I do see rate increases in our future as early as March, if the data cooperate,”


macao win12  02:04:24 GMT - 02/01/2022  
S&P 500 PE ration now stands at 25. Nothing will stop it shooting to 50.


Mtl JP  14:47:51 GMT - 02/01/2022  
EURO 1.1260, 1.1278 HoD
-
still sub 50-day, still Res


Mtl JP  15:13:44 GMT - 02/01/2022  
EURO 1.1260
-
s/term S: 1.1250/25


GVI Forex 16:56:19 GMT - 02/01/2022  
Setting up for divergent BOE snd ECB meetings on Thursday.


Mtl JP  17:29:25 GMT - 02/01/2022  
Forex 16:56 // Jay ... how about a trap ?

see my 15:19 GMT January 23
last para teaser


Mtl JP  17:53:23 GMT - 02/01/2022  
GBPUSD 1.3506
-
note that puppy has yet to test, let alone, break N of its 100-day
to encourage your enthusiasm.
to confirm it it will have to run N of 1.36


dc CB  22:16:13 GMT - 02/01/2022  
But the kicker for investors was that Alphabet approved a 20-for-one stock split,

It appears that GOOGL is going after the reddit crowd: this is how CFO Porat explained the stock split: "The reason for the split is it makes our shares more accessible. We thought it made sense to do; the timing is to increase the number of authorized shares."

In kneejerk reaction, GOOGL stock is surging some 7% after hours,


Israel MacroMicro  22:19:01 GMT - 02/01/2022  
when Srulik have expectations that a trade will generate nice gains he sums up by saying 'Ben Porat Yosef' - her name is Porat, right?



Mtl JP  18:37:25 GMT - 02/02/2022  
 
NatGas $5.50
-
"the russian is coming"


dc CB  23:10:44 GMT - 02/02/2022  
EIA Storage Report Expected to Post Massive Draw Over -275 Bcf Thursday

Arctic Blast Next Few Days, Milder Early Next Week, But Cold Returns Feb 13-16

Arctic Front w/Snow & Ice Dropping Down Plains Into Texas



dc CB  23:11:41 GMT - 02/02/2022  
link

Image Of the Day Feb 2

https://natgasweather.com/


Mtl JP  10:27:13 GMT - 02/03/2022  
EURO 1.1279
-
Jay at what price-point will you say "1.1280 area" has not held and have gone short ?


GVI Forex 10:35:06 GMT - 02/03/2022  
1.1280 was yesterday’s level.


Mtl JP  10:40:28 GMT - 02/03/2022  
on deck today
-
07:45 ECB Interest Rate & Statement

08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 264K vs 260K

08:30 ECB Press Conference

09:15 BoE Gov Bailey Speech


Mtl JP  10:45:09 GMT - 02/03/2022  
 
so has 1.1280 "expired" as a deciding price point
if so what is the new one and its half-life ?

tia


GVI Forex 10:58:42 GMT - 02/03/2022  
Markets are dynamic as are AT lines, which means opportunities are always opening up.

Currently,, 1.1266 appears on multiple time frames as a key level.


dc CB  22:30:05 GMT - 02/03/2022  
Amazin' Amazon after the close.

(let's milk the goat herd---now that they are corralled in the Covid/LockUSDown field) LMAO

ZH---" Amazon said it will increase the price of a Prime membership in the U.S. from $12.99 to $14.99, with the annual membership rising from $119 to $139.

more---link

AMZN Explodes 18% Higher On Solid Earnings, AWS Beat, Prime Price Increase



Mtl JP  08:19:14 GMT - 02/04/2022  
EURO 1.1450
for posterity:
-
(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 bps each in September and December after policymakers finally acknowledged mounting inflation risks at a policy review on Thursday.



Mtl JP  09:50:57 GMT - 02/04/2022  
gaming NFP
-
08:30 NFP -192K vs 199 K

tia for playing set-up ideas


Mtl JP  10:14:42 GMT - 02/04/2022  
another NFP expectation version
-
• Alongside unemployment rate figures and average hourly wages data, the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

• Economists expect that 150,000 jobs will have been added in January.

• The Federal Reserve indicated last month that it could soon raise interest rates for the first time in more than three years.

Treasury yields edge higher in the run-up to key jobs report



Mtl JP  15:59:19 GMT - 02/04/2022  
EURO 1.144-ish
-
puppy's prancing and its close around its 100-day is my guiding beacon


Mtl JP  18:48:23 GMT - 02/04/2022  
 
NatGas 4.6-ish
-
u pic:
warmer weather on horizon
putin being magnanimous



dc CB  03:52:41 GMT - 02/05/2022  
Mtl JP 18:48 GMT
u pic:
warmer weather on horizon
putin being magnanimous
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Natty peaked Wed on the idea of a huge draw coming with Thurs report--
expected -275 on Thurs the Draw came in at -268.

Also the Big Freeze down into Texas and the bettors loaded up recalling what happened last Feb when the wells froze, the windmills froze, pipes froze.

The trick w/CME Henry Hub Nat gas contracts is sell the frenzy....When you are using the Full Contract---which will ding your accnt $1000per cent if you get on The Wrong Side.
So between the Wed peak an today's drop----you do the math.

In the fall/winter I look at
https://natgasweather.com/

The other thing to consider is the Widow Maker trade....a spread between the front month and the Spring month---So-- Feb v April. The Front is now March.....The Feb expired last week----it spiked Huge in the last half hour as it went off the board.

The week's action as March went to the front month was classic Buy the rumor/sell the news.

One more thing---UNG is the exchange traded fund for NatGas Futures---it has a scheduled Roll---easy to find----when the Fund exits the Front Month and Enters the Month that will be the front.......so During a certain number of days there will be Fund/Futures activity each month..... You can Look this up---just get the information on UNG---

See Link Below

cheers

UNG Roll schedule for 2022



dc CB  04:01:47 GMT - 02/05/2022  
the Greek way.
from ZH today's mkt summation.

We leave you with one remark (from Nomura's Charlie McElligott) that all should reflect on as the equity market bounces...

"...there is an overhead "lid" on Equities, where the Fed is effectively shorting Calls / upside because anytime US Equities rally higher substantially higher, US FCI eases... and that’s exactly when we have to anticipate them to “up” their “hawkish” messaging."

Trade accordingly.



Mtl JP  10:26:04 GMT - 02/06/2022  
GBP 1.3527
eurgbp .8460
BoE rate: 0.5%
(players betting on seeing interest at 1.5% this year)

BoE's Andrew - £575,538 salaryman - Bailey on
"preventing inflation becoming entrenched",
"to prevent rising prices becoming "ingrained"
Listenup peasants:
-
"In the sense of saying, we do need to see a moderation of wage rises, now that's painful. I don't want to in any sense sugar that, it is painful. But we need to see that in order to get through this problem more quickly,"

Don't ask for a big pay rise, warns Bank of England boss



Mtl JP  10:43:20 GMT - 02/07/2022  
EURO 1.1422
trading market theme cool-aid
-
The next ‘pain trade’ could be on the horizon as investors crowd into bets pegged to Fed monetary policy
Feb. 4, Vivien Lou Chen
“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” ... “The consensus views in this market scare me,” ... “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade? ... “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” ... “The next pain trade could come if " .../..

WSJ Feb. 4, Jon Sindreu
Europe’s Hawkish Pivot Could Be More Bark Than Bite
European central banks are trying to shock consumers’ inflation expectations with aggressive rate increases, but what ultimately matters is that these economies are doing worse than the U.S.

ECB's Villeroy pushes back on rate hike bets
Reuters • 04/02/2022
FRANKFURT -European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau pushed back against market bets on an upcoming interest rate hike on Friday, saying one “shouldn’t rush to conclusions” about the timing of an ECB move.

ECB's Lagarde on Thursday:
“Inflation is likely to remain elevated for longer than previously expected, but to decline in the course of this year.”
“With the upside surprise we have seen first in December, second in January, I can tell you there was unanimous concern around the table of the Governing Council about inflation numbers,”


Mtl JP  15:10:25 GMT - 02/07/2022  
EURO 1.1438
-
10:45 - lagarde will yak


Mtl JP  16:09:01 GMT - 02/07/2022  
EURO 1.1436
-
lagarde making players zzzz
or she needs to up her yak


Mtl JP  17:59:34 GMT - 02/07/2022  
EURO 1.1421
-
players continue to zzz as lagarde basically does what players were told to expect , namely walk back her earlier hawk.

Bottom Line
puppy appears to have pulled in (lost?) its bull's balls

S around 1.1415-10-00
break below the figure ... and woosh to 1.1350-ish and the 50day
Res 1.1450/75/85 and the round number above that


Mtl JP  18:44:08 GMT - 02/07/2022  
the end ... is near
-
Bloomberg Economics
@economics
Zimbabwe’s central bank has ruled out a return to using the U.S. dollar as official currency because there’s not enough greenbacks in the country


Mtl JP  18:51:46 GMT - 02/07/2022  
GBP 1.3516
-
Bank of England
@bankofengland
As the UK's central bank we work to ensure low inflation, trust in banknotes and a stable financial system. Follow our
@BoE_PressOffice

Bank of England
@bankofengland
We’re coming to Southampton. Join our live #BoECitizensPanel on Tuesday 22 February at 6.30pm. We want to hear your views of the economy. It’s free to sign up: https://b-o-e.uk/34lIQYM
@BoECentralSouth


macao win11  04:16:08 GMT - 02/08/2022  
We will face high inflation in coming few years due to USD bear cycle. This year, expect oil price to revisit 115 (previous high in 2011). Later, not surprise to see nominal price of oil to hit 250-270


Mtl JP  07:00:08 GMT - 02/08/2022  
Goldman Commodity Veteran Says He’s Never Seen a Market Like It

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-07/goldman-commodity-veteran-says-he-s-never-seen-a-market-like-it


Every Picture Is Telling a Story of Markets Regime Change
A turning point is a process and while we’re in it, elevated volatility will create great opportunities for traders.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-07/what-a-turning-point-in-markets-regime-looks-like-for-bonds-stocks-households



Mtl JP  15:36:35 GMT - 02/08/2022  
most likely main event of the day:
3y bond peddle at 13:00


dc CB  21:04:45 GMT - 02/08/2022  
Here is how today's auction fared: the Treasury sold $50BN in 3Y notes at a high yield of 1.592%, which while 35.4 bps above last month's 1.241% and the highest since December 2019, also stopped through the When Issued 1.595% by 0.3bps, a solid topline result for a tenor that has not tailed since November.

The unremarkable Bid to Cover of 2.452 was in line with the six-auction average of 2.428 and below last month's 2.469.

However it was the internals that were most remarkable, with foreign buyers (or Indirects) immediately sticking out because with their 68.5% take down, they were tied for the highest ever (the only time in the past when Indirects took down an identical amount was in Nov 2009), and a clearly and sharp surge compared to recent auctions, certainly last month's 61.6%.

3Y Auction With Record Foreign Demand Shows Bonds Not Worried About "Six Or Seven" Hikes



Mtl JP  09:52:37 GMT - 02/09/2022  
we are all truckers now
macro trading theme
-
1) vaccine mandates:
how-ever awkwardly manifest efforts are to remove them

2) macro-sounds of eventual attempt to "return to normal"

what is "normal" ?
via sub-themes:
2a) boost the economy(ies)
2b) - fight (haha) stubborn inflation
2c) - tighter CBs (Fed, ECB)


Mtl JP  10:08:44 GMT - 02/09/2022  
DLRx 95.50
95.70/75 should be next
-
preserving strength
helped by 10yr which looks for 2%
as "Treasury yields retreat, but 10-year rate holds above 1.9%"
- cnbc


Mtl JP  10:31:54 GMT - 02/09/2022  
watson (playing scientist) to sherlock
-
• WHO official Maria Van Kerkhove said the omicron subvariant BA.2 is more transmissible than BA.1, currently the dominant version of omicron worldwide, and will likely become more common.

• Dr. Abdi Mahamud, the WHO’s Covid incident manager, said it’s unclear whether BA.2 can reinfect people who previously had BA.1.

• Van Kerkhove emphasized that there’s no indication of a difference in illness severity between BA.2 and BA.1, though she noted that research is ongoing.

WHO says new omicron BA.2 subvariant will rise globally, but it’s unclear if it can reinfect people



GVI Forex 13:57:37 GMT - 02/09/2022  
AT EURUSD resistance at 1.1450 so far untouched.

The Amazing Trader



Mtl JP  15:23:30 GMT - 02/09/2022  
EURUSD 1.1435
-
Bias : none
puppy's in a 1.14 - 1.1450 range
probably needs to unglue from its 100-day

Res 1.1450/85/1.1520-ish
S 1.14/1.1370/50 and 50-day


Mtl JP  16:53:23 GMT - 02/09/2022  
 
EURO 1.1437
-
looking for the next directional breakout call
1.11 OR 1.16 first ?

and accolade to the brave




Mtl JP  19:09:29 GMT - 02/09/2022  
"The Boston Federal Reserve on Wednesday named economist Susan Collins as its new president to fill a position that had been vacant since last fall.

Collins, 63, would be a voting member this year of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed board that sets U.S. interest rates. The central bank plans to raise rates as early as March to try to squelch the biggest increase in inflation in 40 years.

Collins, a provost at the University of Michigan, is a prominent economist and Jamaican-American who would become the first Black president of the Boston Fed. The only other Black president among the Fed’s 12 regional banks is Raphael Bostic at the Atlanta Fed.

Collins is familiar with the Boston region. She received her undergraduate degree in economics from Harvard and got her first teaching job there. She later obtained a doctorate in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Collins has written extensively about economic development, trade, labor markets and the economies of China and India.

The Boston Fed leadership role has been vacant since Eric Rosengren resigned in September after a controversy over stock trades. He said he was retiring early to deal with a medical condition."


dc CB  19:12:10 GMT - 02/09/2022  
Yeh nobody wants US dollars.
Listen to that CCP trader. LMAO
___________________________________________

.... all signs pointed to another stellar auction following yesterday's stellar 3Y auction,
And the auction did not disappoint, coming in at metrics that can only be described as absolutely blockbuster.

The high yield of 1.904% was above January's 1.7230% and was the highest since July 2019 (which was the last 2%+ auction), but more importantly it stopped through 2.2bps the When Issued 1.9260% as there was much more demand for the paper than the secondary market could accommodate.

Indirects, i.e., foreign central bank buyers, taking down a record 77.6% of the auction....
Dealers were left with just 7.4%, the lowest on record.

10Y Auction Sees Huge Buyside Interest, Record Foreign Demand



dc CB  19:23:30 GMT - 02/09/2022  
Mtl JP 09:52 GMT 02/09/2022 - My Profile
we are all truckers now
macro trading theme
__________________________________________-----
The Amazing Turning of the Worm.

Quoth the Raven sums it up: QTR Fringe Finance.

The Great Covid Pivot Of 2022: Natural Immunity And Other "Conspiracy Theories" Have Magically Become "Fact Checked" Mainstream Narrative.

"I started out 2022 by predicting that capitalism and common sense would catalyze a massive pivot in how the mainstream media reports on Covid.

I believed that the media would eventually start the process of pivoting from hysteria and that politicians, understanding full well that they can’t get re-elected during mid-terms this year on a platform of locking people in their homes, would follow.

All I can say one month into the year is holy sheitt, does it look like I was right.

Dr Leana Wen, columnist with The Washington Post and CNN medical analyst who has, in the past, gushed non-stop about following the government’s Covid guidance, has now completely changed her playbook for her appearances on CNN.

She Tweeted on Tuesday night:

“It can BOTH be true both that covid-19 causes illness and harm, and ALSO that its continued prioritization, to the exclusion of other issues, does, too.”

“It can BOTH be true that masks reduce respiratory infections and ALSO that they can have unintended harms”



The Great Covid Pivot of 2022



uk 19:45:19 GMT - 02/09/2022  
1.16


Mtl JP  23:29:04 GMT - 02/09/2022  
trading forex ... wrong biz to be in , relatively speaking ?
-
(AP) — Kurt Zouma was fined two weeks' salary - est'd range of $340,000 (£250,000) - by West Ham and lost his sponsorship deal with Adidas on Wednesday after he was filmed kicking and slapping a cat.


Mtl JP  00:13:53 GMT - 02/10/2022  
would 50pt hike classify as "surprise" ?
-
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal look for January CPI to show a 7.2% year-over-year rise after 7% December increase that was the hottest in nearly 40 years

Will hot inflation data kill the stock-market bounce? What investors want to see



Mtl JP  01:49:58 GMT - 02/10/2022  
US CPI
-
Tickets to see the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams face off currently range from just under $4,000 to as much as $55,000 on Ticketmaster


Mtl JP  15:10:53 GMT - 02/10/2022  
 
EURO 1.1435
-
looks like players are mocking the CPI
FED gang may have to come out with larger artillery
lest they loose grip on "expectations"


Mtl JP  18:29:42 GMT - 02/10/2022  
 
EURO 1.1470
HsS tactics
-
those who play HnS know.
equally interesting is what does the erasure of initial CPI reaction say now about the state of market's mindset and attitude, eh ?


Mtl JP  19:19:14 GMT - 02/10/2022  
 
NatGas 3.98
-
puppy is betting on milder weather, not on re-opening and hungrier economy. as transitionary greening champion or not


dc CB  22:06:10 GMT - 02/10/2022  
the Draw was -222.

Thursday: For today’s EIA weekly storage report, survey averages favor a draw of -221 to -223 Bcf, considerably larger than the 5-year average of -150 Bcf. It was colder than normal over much of the interior US, aided by a frigid Arctic blast diving down the Plains into Texas late last week, while warm vs normal over the West and East Coasts. We expect a draw of -226-227 Bcf, which if close would increase deficits to near -210 Bcf.

UNG nattygas futures ETF---roll begins today. March to April contracts

fund roll dates



Mtl JP  07:16:05 GMT - 02/11/2022  
EURO 1.1378
US2Y: 1.618%
wonder if bullard is loosing players' "respect"
-
Fed’s Bullard Backs Supersized Hike, Seeks Full Point by July 1
‘Inflationary shock’ needs big response, he says in interview
St. Louis Fed chief defers to Powell on size of March increase


Mtl JP  15:00:02 GMT - 02/11/2022  
EURO 1.1392
-
Bias - between niaaahhh and down
Res 1.1420/50
Sup 1.1370/50 and 50-day


GVI Forex 15:01:55 GMT - 02/11/2022  
Softer U of M consumer sentiment, One year inflation expectation 5%, up 0.1%


Mtl JP  15:16:49 GMT - 02/11/2022  
 
if u wanna c what confusion looks like


dc CB  16:55:49 GMT - 02/11/2022  
Are ya feeling lucky???
Want to Hold Stox over the weekend???
See the closing numbers for the answer.
_______________________________________________

NBC
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-warns-americans-leave-ukraine-russia-troops-world-war-rcna15781

"American citizens should leave now," Biden said while discussing the Russian troop build-up threatening Ukraine in a new NBC News interview.

"It's not like we're dealing with a terrorist organization. We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly."


dc CB  17:00:15 GMT - 02/11/2022  
Government in the Sunshine Meeting Notice

Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures

It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, February 14, 2022, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C.. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting.

Meeting Date: Monday, February 14, 2022

Closed Board Meeting on February 14, 2022



Mtl JP  17:04:19 GMT - 02/11/2022  
CB - hurry to stock up on beans, bullets and bandages ?


dc CB  17:30:49 GMT - 02/11/2022  
JP
you tell me? you guys gonna go Full Australian, or will sanity prevail.


Mtl JP  18:48:12 GMT - 02/11/2022  
my guess is justin - admirer of chinese dictatorship - is close to snapping. but in light of his character he ll likely be wanting to make sure that any potential chitt does not stick to him


Mtl JP  18:52:51 GMT - 02/11/2022  
at thy risk
-
Bloomberg.com
Goldman Sachs Now Predicts Fed to Hike Seven Times in 2022
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates seven times this year to ... blah blah blah


dc CB  20:34:02 GMT - 02/11/2022  
update(2:51pmET): The White House is now telling Americans in Ukraine to get out of the country "immediately" - giving a 24 to 48 hour time frame to make a safe exit. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan urged all US citizens in Ukraine "to depart immediately." The number of Americans in the country is often estimated in the tens of thousands - likely somewhere around 30,000 - including dual citizens.

U.S. ORDERS ADDITIONAL 3,000 TROOPS TO POLAND

"We want to be crystal clear on this point. Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible and in any event, in the next 24 to 48 hours," Sullivan said. "We obviously cannot predict the future. We don't know exactly what is going to happen, but the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough." If they stay, Americans "are assuming risk with no guarantee that there will be any other opportunity to leave and no prospect of a US Military evacuation in the event of a Russian invasion," he added.

“It is the time to leave now,” he said. “We are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it.” Sullivan also in the afternoon press briefing said it's US intelligence's belief that Putin could launch an invasion by the end of the Olympics...

"We continue to see signs of Russian escalation including now forces arriving at the border. As we've said before, we're in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it. I will not comment on the details of our intelligence information but I do want to be clear, it could begin during the Olympics, despite a lot of speculation that it will only happen after the Olympics."

Warns Invasion "Could Begin During Olympics"



dc CB  20:42:50 GMT - 02/11/2022  
Earlier today we observed that amid speculation of an intermeeting, or emergency rate hike, all eyes were on today's final POMO schedule release from the Fed due at 3PM to see whether there would be any notable changes to the Fed's QE plans, or whether the Fed would even end QE prematurely today.

Well, a few minutes after 3PM ET, the Fed effectively killed any speculation for an early rate hike when it published what will be its final (for now) POMO schedule, which sees $20 billion in Treasury bonds purchased across 8 operations over the next month, with the final purchase of $4 billion taking place on March 9, in line with expectations, and one week before the March 16 FOMC meeting when the Fed will hike 50bps... and just one day before the February CPI print is released and the ECB's next decision.

Final POMO Schedule



dc CB  21:12:27 GMT - 02/11/2022  
update(4:05pmET):
once again Moscow is "calling bullsheit". Late at night Friday local time, the Kremlin responded to the latest headline panic-fest in the aftermath of the White House afternoon briefing, calling the new 'predictions' yet more US "disinformation".. according to the news wires:

RUSSIA SAYS BY SPREADING DISINFORMATION ABOUT PLANNED RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE WESTERN COUNTRIES WANT TO DISTRACT ATTENTION FROM THEIR OWN AGGRESSIVE ACTIONS

Russia Blasts White House's Fresh Friday Ukraine Panic Porn As "Distraction & Disinformation"



Mtl JP  22:50:28 GMT - 02/11/2022  
CB 20:34 is sullivan a certified cretin or a failed clown ?

U.S. Warns of Risk That Russia Attacks Ukraine Next Week
11 Feb 2022 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. believes Russia could take offensive military action or attempt to spark a conflict inside Ukraine as early as next week, before the Winter Olympics in Beijing wrap up, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan

more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/u-s-warns-of-risk-that-russia-moves-against-ukraine-next-week


macao win11  10:07:23 GMT - 02/12/2022  
Dictatorship, democracy, etc is just a name of the people management system. At the end, only the extent of economy development and number of smiling citizens count...


Mtl JP  13:51:46 GMT - 02/12/2022  
not sure why but
apparently still to come:
-
Biden will phone Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday evening Moscow time, the Kremlin said Friday

it is about 17hrs in moscow atm


Mtl JP  17:05:16 GMT - 02/12/2022  
oh the DRAMA
-
CNN on MSN.com
35 minutes ago
Biden and Putin holding phone call as tension builds over Russian threat to Ukraine
The conversation began at 11:04 a.m. ET, according to a White House official.

CTV News
30 minutes ago
Putin, Biden begin high-stakes phone call on Ukraine crisis

USA TODAY on MSN.com
8 minutes ago
High-stakes Biden-Putin call underway amid fear of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Here's what we know.

Apparently to try to avoid "the worst" whatever that is. One thing that is obvious is that biden is painted in a corner.



Mtl JP  21:38:09 GMT - 02/12/2022  
how screwed is biden ?
bloomberg reports:
-
February 12, 2022, 7:30 PM
Biden-Putin Call Is Inconclusive Even as Ukraine Tensions Jump
- U.S. warns offensive against Ukraine could begin next week
- Russia has repeatedly denied it plans to attack Ukraine

The leaders of the U.S. and Russia held an hour-long call on Saturday that made little apparent headway, with President Joe Biden warning again of “severe costs” for any invasion of Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin accusing America of failing to provide him with the security assurances he needs to back down.

While the Kremlin characterized the talks as businesslike and balanced, briefings by both sides afterward indicated that Biden and Putin stuck to their familiar talking points, proving few clues as to where things go from here. .../..


Mtl JP  14:17:15 GMT - 02/13/2022  
betting
-
27 - 21 on Bengals


dc CB  18:26:22 GMT - 02/13/2022  
The last unmanageable man.
He refused to smile.

People Management System



dc CB  19:28:47 GMT - 02/13/2022  
re: betting ---in general.
______________________

Content originally sourced from iBankCoin

BY The_Real_Fly

If you're doing nothing and ignoring this news flow and buying SNAP on the dips -- you're a fu(k)ing idiot.

How Are You Positioned?



dc CB  19:51:25 GMT - 02/13/2022  
Mtl JP 22:50 GMT 02/11/2022 - My Profile
CB 20:34 is sullivan a certified cretin or a failed clown ?
____________________________________________-
(Jake Sullivan)

Special Counsel John Durham revealed in a court filing that the Hillary Clinton campaign plotted to infiltrate the Trump campaign along with White House computer servers in order to fabricate allegations of Russian collusion.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Jake Sullivan intentionally sabotaged relations with Russia by pushing a false flag story that his own team fabricated. Now he is National Security Advisor, tasked with advising the president on dealing with Russia. How is that even possible? Where is the media? https://t.co/y5KpjbH2vb
— Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) February 13, 2022

Among the reason the media might want to cover the developments in John Durham's criminal probe of the fraudulent Alfa Bank story and the crimes committed to spread it: the Clinton 2016 official at the heart of it is now Biden's National Security Advisor in charge of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/OpBk4AdDcL
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 13, 2022



dc CB  20:30:10 GMT - 02/13/2022  
macao win11 10:07 GMT 02/12/2022
Dictatorship, democracy, etc is just a name of the people management system. At the end, only the extent of economy development and number of smiling citizens count...
__________________________________---

funny thing about a pile of skulls....you can almost imagine that they are all smiling

Salutary lessons for management



Mtl JP  21:05:41 GMT - 02/13/2022  
Feb 13 Bloomberg headlines

Irish Central Bank Chief Says June Rate Hike ‘Unrealistic’

It’s “unrealistic” that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates in June, Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf told the Financial Times in an interview.

The Carry Trade Is Faltering, Just as It Began to Deliver Gains

Manchin Prods Fed to Tackle Inflation, Citing Economy Risk
Senator Joe Manchin said the Federal Reserve needs to “stop pussyfooting around” and “tackle inflation head-on,” renewing his call for the central bank to act against the fastest pace of price increases since the early 1980s.

Fed Rate-Increase Path to Be Data-Dependent, Measured, Daly Says


dc CB  22:28:32 GMT - 02/13/2022  
update(5:10pmET): During their Sunday phone call Ukraine's President Zelensky asked Biden to visit Kiev in person amid continuing White House claims that a Russian invasion is set to happen "any day" now.

Saying that major Ukrainian cities are "under safe protection," Zelensky suggested that a visit of the US president in person would stop the spread of panic and prevent escalation. "I am convinced that your visit to Kyiv in the coming days... would be a powerful signal and help stabilize the situation," Zelensky was quoted as saying in the call.

"We will stop any escalation. The Ukrainian capital, Kiev, other cities in our country - Kharkov and Lvov, Dnepr and Odessa - are under safe protection," Zelensky told the US president.

Invites Biden To Visit Ukraine In "Coming Days" In Pushback Against 'Imminent' Invasion Fears



Israel  MacroMicro  08:43:06 GMT - 02/14/2022  

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD 1.1305/1.1310

if 1.13-1.15 is not wrong, then now it is long

Simplicity


Israel  MacroMicro  08:49:21 GMT - 02/14/2022  
in case your choice is to trust a "Makhlouf", you will not onion for tears as the sadness from trusting a "Makhlouf" to bring ocean of tears.

note this one


GVI Forex 11:45:37 GMT - 02/14/2022  
GVI Forex 10:58 GMT February 3, 2022
mkt: Reply
Markets are dynamic as are AT lines, which means opportunities are always opening up.

Currently,, 1.1266 appears on multiple time frames as a key level.

The Amazing Trader



GVI Forex 11:58:48 GMT - 02/14/2022  
From my blog article,

Looking ahead, the jury is out whether currencies such as the EURUSD can move out of current ranges (e.g. 1.13—1.15 with the next key AT level looming below at 1.1266).


GVI Forex 11:59:22 GMT - 02/14/2022  
From my blog article,

Looking ahead, the jury is out whether currencies such as the EURUSD can move out of current ranges (e.g. 1.13—1.15 with the next key AT level looming below at 1.1266).


GVI Forex 11:59:43 GMT - 02/14/2022  
From my blog article, Trading in the Forex Twilight Zone

Looking ahead, the jury is out whether currencies such as the EURUSD can move out of current ranges (e.g. 1.13—1.15 with the next key AT level looming below at 1.1266).


GVI Forex 12:53:54 GMT - 02/14/2022  
Equities popped, up, FX followed following these comments

Russia Foreign Miniter Lavrov tells Putin responses to Russian security proposals from the EU and NATO have not been satisfactory. Russia will try to get responses from all WU countries: US has put forward concrete proposals on reducing military risks.

Source

Newsquawk.com



Israel  MacroMicro  13:07:12 GMT - 02/14/2022  
observation

all trading instruments (== markets) moving in very measured manner.
which means, you panic - you lose!

whatever is your plan, if you trust it than follow it.

if you are generous for real, share it in advance or at least in real time.

else, AT (Ahmed Trading) 2.0 / LOL


Israel  MacroMicro  13:09:45 GMT - 02/14/2022  
if you are interested in AT 2.0 trial, contact Jay for details

where is WFAK?


GVI Forex 13:21:53 GMT - 02/14/2022  
 
Let's keep[ it sim-le - look at the following 2 charts

GBPUSD


GVI Forex 13:22:29 GMT - 02/14/2022  
 
EURUSD

The Amazing Trader



GVI Forex 13:45:33 GMT - 02/14/2022  
Bullard (hawk) reiterates hawkish remarks.


Israel  MacroMicro  14:06:09 GMT - 02/14/2022  
Jay, better you don't spend time listening to the WFAKS of Central Banking. their master plan lays within the differential of the rates among them and no where else.

they are well harmonized and to expect a serious weakness with USD the coming years is the right theme. of course, it has nothing to do with the death of USD or other panic themes. Just a regular cycle.

find the deep and blip to build your position. that covers all in my opinion.


Mtl JP  15:35:16 GMT - 02/14/2022  
EURO 1.1302
-
Bearish
Res 50-day, 50, 70
Sup 1.13, 1.1275/00


Mtl JP  16:00:35 GMT - 02/14/2022  
dont you love clear communication ?
-
Repeats call for 100 basis point move by July 1. Other Fed officials more dovish

Fed’s Bullard says his call for front-loaded rate hikes is not a ‘threat’ to economy, stock market - Feb. 14, 2022 at 10:23 a.m. By Greg Robb



Mtl JP  16:31:14 GMT - 02/14/2022  
usdcad 1.2735
-
justin "admirer of chinese dictatorship" trudeau's plans

Act grants cabinet ability to take 'special temporary measures that may not be appropriate in normal times'

The act grants cabinet the ability to "take special temporary measures that may not be appropriate in normal times" to cope with an emergency and the resulting fallout during an "urgent and critical situation."

Trudeau plans on invoking the Emergencies Act in response to protests: sources



dc CB  17:28:48 GMT - 02/14/2022  
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Monday blamed mysterious “imported” forces for the protests against her vaccine mandates that dominate the national capital.

Ardern pointed at Canadian flags and Donald Trump images on the streets of Wellington as evidence for her conspiracy claim.

“It feels like an imported protest to me,”

“I’ve seen Trump flags on the forecourt, I’ve seen Canadian flags on the forecourt,” she told national broadcaster TVNZ, referring to images of former U.S. President Donald Trump allegedly carried by some demonstrators.

Ardern labels anti-vaccine mandate protests 'imported'



Mtl JP  18:39:52 GMT - 02/14/2022  
what are the odds of arden loosing in october ?


GVI Forex 19:06:17 GMT - 02/14/2022  
Risk off on this

Ukraine President Zelensky says Ukraine “has been informed” that Wednesday February 16 “will be the day of the attack”, according to comments attributed to Zelensky accompanying a Facebook update to the nation according to CNN’s Scouto.

Newsquawk.com



dc CB  20:04:04 GMT - 02/14/2022  
Update (1435ET): As one veteran trader exclaimed over MSG: "You cannot make this fu^ing sheit up!!!"

US markets reversed their earlier violent moves after comments from Ukrainian leader Zelenskiy about an attack on Wednesday were actually irony (remember he was a comedian) and not reality...

Idiot algos crash stonks because they literally don't have a humor filter https://t.co/Vwr0LWrSHI
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 14, 2022


PRIOR TO THIS:
CBS News has learned that some Russian units have left their assembly areas and begun to move into attack positions, according to a U.S. official. Some long-range artillery and rocket launchers have also been moved into firing positions. https://t.co/MMwjYE87lj
— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 14, 2022

(ZeroHedge: Of course, there is no actual evidence of any of this... )


dc CB  21:50:52 GMT - 02/14/2022  
where goes the Markit

The Super Bowl Omen---

Chart of the Day



Israel  MacroMicro  22:41:44 GMT - 02/14/2022  
GVI Forex 19:06 GMT February 14, 2022 - My Profile
mkt: Reply
Risk off on this

Ukraine President Zelensky says Ukraine “has been informed” that Wednesday February 16 “will be the day of the attack”, according to comments attributed to Zelensky accompanying a Facebook update to the nation according to CNN’s Scouto.

______________________________________________

LOL


Israel  MacroMicro  22:49:32 GMT - 02/14/2022  
*** Zelensky's office is saying his reference to February 16 as the day of Russian attack was said with irony. ***

you would corrected the post immediately, if someone took your post seriously, he traded "news" that were based on a joke.


NY JM  23:30:07 GMT - 02/14/2022  
So EURUSD dropped 30 pips on a FB post. Says a lot about the current news driven market.


dc CB  01:03:03 GMT - 02/15/2022  
Mtl JP 16:31 GMT 02/14/2022 - My Profile
usdcad 1.273
justin "admirer of chinese dictatorship" trudeau's plans
_____________________________________________________
maybe not---maybe his motivation -----
Truth Or Dare---Truth or Lie---easily researched if you care to...or is that too much of a bother.

"An interesting question that must be asked & also in light of the current news that Trudeu’s family foundation owns 40% of Acuitas Therapeutics which is a lipid nanoparticle technology company with patent royalties from $PFE & $MRNA. Very suspicious & curious indeed.


Mtl JP  14:57:43 GMT - 02/15/2022  
EURO 1.1330
-
Bias : bearish
Res 1350/70
Sup 1.1300/1.1280/50


dc CB  15:27:13 GMT - 02/15/2022  
The Greeks----

Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns, "virtuous" second-order Greeks look set to take-over and further accelerate the spot rally / vol compression into expiration.

On the Index Options side, the Gamma run-off this week is going to be substantial (SPX -35%, QQQ -41%, IWM -53%), with the majority of it in downside Puts—which could accelerate “trade up” into expiration

"So unless we see a serious pushback from US officials to deny the headlines that Putin is pulling back, the market - at least into OpEx - has significant potential from positioning, greeks, and macro-hedges to melt-up."

OP EX



Mtl JP  16:05:36 GMT - 02/15/2022  
looking at NY's "risk" priceaction
looks like folks still have scads of money to buy


dc CB  18:00:43 GMT - 02/15/2022  
 
Mtl JP 16:05 GMT 02/15/2022 - My Profile
looking at NY's "risk" priceaction
___________________________________________
back to the betting games.....the Greeks---for the action going into friday


Mtl JP  18:23:10 GMT - 02/15/2022  
Xi's communists
- added new "support" to their economy
- warned traders against speculating and hoarding

With prospects of physical war diluted (for now at least) odds are of players turning their trading targetting radar to CB relative policies and currently pricing in relatively aggressive FED.



dc CB  19:19:39 GMT - 02/15/2022  
An article criticizing Chinese leader Xi Jinping was allowed to go viral in mainland China, which analysts say reflects the intense struggle among different factions within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its effect on Xi’s authority.

At present, it’s difficult for him to continue his rule. The year 2022 will be his biggest turning point,” the author wrote. “Even if he miraculously secures another term, he will face more difficulties and complete failure before 2027.”

The author lists three factors that could cause the collapse of Xi’s rule, alongside a predicted worsening of the political situation. The essay indicates that achievements claimed by Xi are fabricated, the political foundation of his authority has been destroyed, and “the entire CCP bureaucracy” is opposed to Xi and his handful of supporters.

Anti-Xi Article Reveals CCP Infighting



dc CB  22:06:56 GMT - 02/15/2022  
it appears Omicron is over...
(chart)
Source: Bloomberg

Cases are back to pre-Omicron levels and deaths are rolling over... and Putin is retreating?! Time for a beer!

Chart of the Day



Mtl JP  09:26:06 GMT - 02/16/2022  
EURO 1.1379 (HoD 1.1395)
-
lets see if puppy settles in a range capped by 1.14


GVI Forex 14:05:54 GMT - 02/16/2022  
Stronger US retail sales + Blinken comments downplaying Russian troop pullback seeing some risk off


Mtl JP  14:40:18 GMT - 02/16/2022  
into a three-day week-end
who wants to be short the dlr ?

anyone care what is the minutes coming out at 2pm NYT ?


PAR 15:34:09 GMT - 02/16/2022  
Biden and Blinken stay aggressive and bellicose. Two angry old men.


uk 18:19:08 GMT - 02/16/2022  
hurting my Gold sells


Mtl JP  18:35:00 GMT - 02/16/2022  
usdcad 1,2682
BoC's Lane yakking


Mtl JP  18:45:11 GMT - 02/16/2022  
funny cnbc:
"Dow falls nearly 300 points as investors assess geopolitical risk"

of course kashkari's earlier peddling FED can walk on water has nothing to do w/it


Mtl JP  02:15:24 GMT - 02/17/2022  
when things go bad in US, the ptb often turns to outside conflict to distract murrikan peasants.
judging from the statement below, things continue to go to h3ll in handbasket in the US:

Bloomberg
"The U.S. contradicted Kremlin statements that it pulled back some of the 150,000 Russian troops and heavy arms placed around Ukraine. NATO and an independent analyst group reportedly said Vladimir Putin may actually be increasing forces there, as western allies warn he could attack his neighbor at any time. “There’s what Russia says and what Russia does, and we haven’t seen any pullback of its forces,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday." ...


dc CB  03:36:26 GMT - 02/17/2022  
Just-in-time is a test for democracy in North America.
How far is a bridge-too-far.

In 'murica there are too many guns and the people are not so 'nice' about having their banks accounts 'frozen'

After all this is pivotal Election Year for those in power
How far can the general population be pushed---before the reaction goes ....warrents Emergency Powers.....as the Covid stuff/excuse clamp-down-wise is Over---

Trade Safe.


Mtl JP  09:31:23 GMT - 02/17/2022  
U.S. says ...
-
No Russian troops were withdrawn from the border with Ukraine, a senior Biden administration official told reporters Wednesday night

Russia adds 7,000 troops to Ukraine border, despite claims it would withdraw some forces, U.S. says



PAR 09:59:50 GMT - 02/17/2022  
For more than a week now European TV channels are showing Russian tanks firing, Russian missiles being shot around, Russian soldiers running in the snow.

I am wondering when and where all those well-montaged movies were shot?


Mtl JP  10:59:07 GMT - 02/17/2022  
10-yr 2.014% -0.031 at 5:57 est

end of the world ! end of the world !!
someone turn off the lights:
-
Stocks Are Falling. Investors Continue to Weigh Russia and the Fed.
- Barron's


Mtl JP  11:40:45 GMT - 02/17/2022  
EURO 1.1363
-
puppy still inside 1.14 - 1.12 range
seems to demand time and patience

even eurchf rather quiet and calm


GVI Forex 14:00:13 GMT - 02/17/2022  
From a trading perspective, think one day ahead and ask yourself who is going to take on risk ahead of a 3-day US weekend with Russia-Ukraine uncertainty looming..


Mtl JP  16:49:10 GMT - 02/18/2022  
EURO 1.1333
-
Bias : down
Res 1.1350/75/1.14
Sup1.13, 1.1280


Mtl JP  18:09:16 GMT - 02/18/2022  
vladimir to play with some live toys on the week-end
-
"Vladimir Putin will personally oversee exercises of Russia’s strategic deterrence forces, including ballistic and cruise missile launches meant to simulate a nuclear attack.

The annual strategic Grom drills will take place on Saturday “under the supervision of Russian Armed Forces Supreme Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin”, Russia’s defence ministry has said in a statement. “Ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched in its course.” ...
- guardian


Israel  MacroMicro  18:16:33 GMT - 02/18/2022  
JP

ping here if Justin freezes your account and you cannot buy bread anymore, madame Freeland will personally deliver you cakes.


Mtl JP  20:42:54 GMT - 02/18/2022  
Fed's Brainard says
- planned policy moves can bring inflation down while sustaining recovery
-- a series of rate hikes are appropriate


Varna Momchil  14:33:38 GMT - 02/20/2022  
Absolutely nonsense talks.


Varna Momchil  14:37:25 GMT - 02/20/2022  
Thanks for the idea.


Mtl JP  16:42:10 GMT - 02/20/2022  
some thematic elements:
-
ukraine serving attention deflecting fog from
biden’s domestic agenda and poopoolarity in the toilet

bullard
said the Fed should consider a half-point rate hike in one of its upcoming meetings, twice its normal increase.

and was promptly dissed:

williams:
The Federal Reserve should start raising interest rates next month

brainard:
said that she expected the Fed would, at its next meeting in March, “initiate a series of rate increases.”

evans:
fed needs to adjust its low-interest rate policies, which he called “wrong-footed.”


Mtl JP  09:52:51 GMT - 02/22/2022  
EURO 1.1325-ish
..."the texts of the sanctions were being prepared"...

The Financial Times
8 minutes ago
West prepares Russia sanctions after Putin orders troops into Ukraine
Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat ... The EU high representative said the texts of the sanctions were being prepared on Tuesday morning and would be agreed upon by member states later in the afternoon. “I’m sure there will be a unanimous decision ...


Mtl JP  14:46:40 GMT - 02/22/2022  
EURO 1.1339
-
Bias - neither uP nor DOwn
Res 1.14
Sup 1.13

Snipping time, short/term


Mtl JP  15:10:15 GMT - 02/22/2022  
VIX 29.12
-
elevated. somewhat


Mtl JP  15:42:01 GMT - 02/22/2022  
15:30nyt - bostic yaks
-
increasingly looking like players now pricing a qtr pnt march hike


Mtl JP  16:09:31 GMT - 02/22/2022  
soooo .... what is the "solution" ?
-
- About 6% of men at age 35 are unemployed, according to RAND Corp. By that age, 64% of the jobless had been arrested as adults and 46% had been convicted.

- A criminal record can create an additional barrier to employment that’s unrelated to job skill, if an employer conducts a background check.

"64% of unemployed men in their 30s have criminal records, a barrier to landing a job" - cnbc



Mtl JP  18:26:54 GMT - 02/22/2022  
EURO 1.1330
-
sleeping like a dusty dog on a hot summer day or ...
maybe waiting for those promised sanctions by EU, Canada and US

VIX 30.35
10-yr 1.923 (down teeni bit)


Mtl JP  01:49:23 GMT - 02/23/2022  
oh the dilemma !
-
* The outcome of Russia’s incursion into two breakaway regions of Ukraine is uncertain, but it has already caused commodities prices to shoot higher.

* Economists say it’s the price of oil that matters most because crude prices can drive up inflation and slow down the global economy.

* What happens to oil could also determine whether the Fed continues a brisk pace of hiking after it raises interest rates in March or ultimately slows the pace due to growth concerns.

----
ya don't say sherlock ! vlad has got that much power ?

biden warn his fellow murrikan citizens that gas prices could rise as the US sanctions Russia, saying 'defending freedom will have costs'
ya dont say, and is the murrican people enthusiastically willing ?

I noticed that biden "pledged his administration was using "every tool at our disposal" to limit the effect of sanctions on domestic gas prices" according to CNN.

I also noticed that biden, when he got to the end of the words scrolling in front of him, turned on his heels and walked away without taking questions.

Russia’s Ukraine incursion could complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 22 2022 by Patti Domm



Mtl JP  10:46:54 GMT - 02/23/2022  
Munger called surging prices the biggest threat second only to a nuclear war - feb 16th on cnbc

extrapolating munger's logic, the way to poof surging prices worry would be to _



(bend over and kiss own a.ss when you see a cloud and a flash)



GVI Forex 15:08:16 GMT - 02/23/2022  
Put about 15 minutes ago

US officials warn of a full scale Ukraine invasion within next 48 hours.


Mtl JP  15:14:46 GMT - 02/23/2022  
which would be better play:
long Gold (1907) or
long brent (95.32)

OR ...is the "us officials warn"ing all priced in ?


Mtl JP  15:26:49 GMT - 02/23/2022  
fwiw - "Fed funds futures traders continued to pull back on Wednesday from pricing in an aggressive start to the Fed's next rate-hike cycle.The market-implied chances of a 50 basis point rate hike in March dropped to 33% on Wednesday from 41% the prior day, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate increase went up to 67% versus 59% previously, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "


Mtl JP  15:51:38 GMT - 02/23/2022  
15:08 - jay since your post brent s uP circa 2 bux and stocks a-tilting


Mtl JP  16:00:23 GMT - 02/23/2022  
also eurchf is tilting some
maybe players are lending some cred to your 15:08
or just looking to make a play, some play ... any play


GVI Forex 16:07:13 GMT - 02/23/2022  
JPM expects oil prices to avg $110 in the second quarter.


Mtl JP  16:12:34 GMT - 02/23/2022  
low this about 77, current 93
avarage 110 = +/- ____ .... 140 - 80 ?


Toronto Abb  17:45:07 GMT - 02/23/2022  
Mtp you think eurchf is going up..?


Toronto Abb  17:47:06 GMT - 02/23/2022  
...MTL JP


Mtl JP  17:53:46 GMT - 02/23/2022  
I am only eur seller
in these times


uk 19:03:38 GMT - 02/23/2022  
No


Mtl JP  00:04:31 GMT - 02/24/2022  
gee ... is this lights out for soldmanyfuks ?

Bloomberg.com
-
Goldman Sachs Wants Its Bonuses Back as Punishment for Jumping Ship
The Wall Street bank is going to great lengths to head off departures with measures like seizing vested pay.


Mtl JP  09:48:53 GMT - 02/24/2022  
 
USDRUB 83.83
-
good volatility. but the spread ...


Mtl JP  10:24:30 GMT - 02/24/2022  
boris' hope
in other words: "have some cookies and good luck"
-
"The Prime Minister said he hoped Ukraine could resist and that Ukraine and its people were in the thoughts of everyone in the United Kingdom during this dark time."

PM call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 24 February 2022



Mtl JP  11:16:53 GMT - 02/24/2022  
trading theme:
after "darkness" : light
euro low: 1.1125-ish (Sup)
-
* World leaders strongly condemned Russia’s act of aggression as President Vladimir Putin ordered an attack on Ukraine early Thursday local time.

* U.S. President Joe Biden: “The world will hold Russia accountable.”

* Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: “An attack on the world order.”

‘Dark day for Europe’: World leaders condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine PUBLISHED THU, FEB 24 20224:37 AM ESTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO CNBC.com staff



GVI Forex 12:03:00 GMT - 02/24/2022  
Conditions are such that CBS are likely in to smooth, not reverse the market.


Mtl JP  15:03:49 GMT - 02/24/2022  
headline
-
"Traders now see 91% chance of only 25 basis point rate hike from Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch Tool"


Mtl JP  17:33:55 GMT - 02/24/2022  
headlines
and the Q is which has more "attention power" from players:
-
Biden to speak at 1:30 Eastern p.m. on Russian invasion of Ukraine

Mester says still appropriate to hike rates in March, while Ukraine conflict will be a factor in pace of future moves

so chose your poison wisely


Mtl JP  18:16:26 GMT - 02/24/2022  
we also have a new euro range if 1.1107 holds


Mtl JP  18:25:02 GMT - 02/24/2022  
with not transitory inflation (i.e a FED and Yellen errors in expert judgement) at 5% + and now all sorts of materials and energies costs running even more inflationary now, odds are increasing that

1) all western "democratic" gov'ts will have budgetary and peasant unhapiness issues

2) players currently high-odds-pricing only qtr point fed hike will be off their pricing in 3 weeks


Mtl JP  18:39:48 GMT - 02/24/2022  
aping Jay's earlier how to trade geopol risk:
"Geopolitical shocks to the stock market tend to be fleeting, BMO says" on cnbc


Mtl JP  18:46:29 GMT - 02/24/2022  
what player sentiment does euro uP about 70pips off its low reflect?


Mtl JP  18:53:07 GMT - 02/24/2022  
euro 1.1191
-
hunting stops !
odds are puppy chomps up to 1.1255-ish


Mtl JP  19:03:26 GMT - 02/24/2022  
next: vlad's turn ?
-
Here are the sanctions he announced:

- Limit Russia's ability to do business in dollars, euros, pounds and yen to be part of the global economy.

- Stop the ability to finance and grow the Russian military.

- Impair their ability to compete in high-tech 21st century economy.

- US sanctioned Russian banks that together hold around $1 trillion in assets.

He added, "we're also blocking four more major banks. That means every asset they have in America will be frozen."

Biden announces sanctions as Russia invades Ukraine - cnn



Mtl JP  19:20:02 GMT - 02/24/2022  
huh ?
-
"Biden says no plans to suspend Russia from SWIFT" - MarketWatch


Mtl JP  19:38:07 GMT - 02/24/2022  
 
DLRx 97.08
-
HnS building
and so w/it a trade opp

I am biased
sofar am unlikely to hold dlr short into the week-en


uk 20:07:06 GMT - 02/24/2022  
mistake


Mtl JP  09:32:28 GMT - 02/25/2022  
SWIFT
-
how secure, how resilient how responsive ?

what is the backup: fax, pigeons ?



Israel MacroMicro  09:33:34 GMT - 02/25/2022  
Rothschild, Safra and their camels?


london red  09:37:14 GMT - 02/25/2022  
JP, us and uk pushing for swift, germans against. all about price of o&g. its bad policy over last ten years. things will change now but dont know if its enough to get germans on board with swift right now.


Mtl JP  09:40:48 GMT - 02/25/2022  
can SWIFT be brought down ?
for everyone ?


london red  09:45:46 GMT - 02/25/2022  
JP, just a question of locking out russia. but there has to be agreement. then they can only to other unsecure methods or bitcoin!


Israel MacroMicro  09:48:55 GMT - 02/25/2022  
after what happened in Canada, why not?

the showcase of Canada 2022 made many that still bother to try thinking to rethink 'holy sh!t, is democracy is about multinationals getting their supply of raw materials across borders?'

well fine educated red can add his perspective how great it is to agree with the one controlling the "money" supply. so Pump_and_Pomp became financial culture.


Mtl JP  10:26:23 GMT - 02/25/2022  
SWIFT
central banks must ensure they are resilient
-
"Due to the systemic importance of real-time gross settlement systems (RTGS), central banks must ensure they are resilient enough to withstand a variety of threats to their security and integrity. These include natural disasters, data corruption, loss of essential services, unavailability of staff and, of course, cyber-crime."

A robust, efficient and low cost RTGS third-site recovery solution



Mtl JP  10:39:22 GMT - 02/25/2022  
heading into NY and last day before the week-end
-
DLRx 97.16
euro 1.1172
eurchf 1.034 (sleeping)
gold 1908 (a failure)
brent 95.40 (a failure)
us "risk" 4258.50 - looking wish-washi atm

and so I am asking:
do I dare short the dlr here


Mtl JP  11:51:32 GMT - 02/25/2022  
odds of FED gang hiking 50bps
-
currently less than 6%


GVI Forex 12:55:40 GMT - 02/25/2022  
Pop in risk on

Conciliatory comments from Russia indicating having talks with Ukraine.


GVI Forex 15:05:08 GMT - 02/25/2022  
Quiet here is a market that haas moved to the sidelines.


Mtl JP  15:09:06 GMT - 02/25/2022  
conciliatory talks with zelenski ?

I doubt zelenski has the authority to "concilliate" nato's pullback from what - now 10 new members - since when russia agreed to leave east germany... ie. "all those European democracies whose political stability, military contributions, and commitment to NATO solidarity would be assets to the Alliance" (brookings)


Mtl JP  15:18:42 GMT - 02/25/2022  
according to Willem H. Buiter (an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University):
-
"To safeguard its credibility, the Fed must take decisive action. Another drawn-out sequence of 25-bps hikes will not do the job."

Opinion: To stop inflation, the Fed should go big, starting with a 100 basis-point hike in March



PAR  15:21:33 GMT - 02/25/2022  
Unseen amount of US stock buybacks.


Mtl JP  15:21:54 GMT - 02/25/2022  
with three weeks players have still time to adjust their FED rate hiking play


Mtl JP  17:20:37 GMT - 02/25/2022  
Nasdaq uP 1.3%
Dow up 2%
S&P 500 up 1.9%

for some reason


Mtl JP  18:25:35 GMT - 02/25/2022  
theory
n roubini:
"Putin’s war promises to crush the global economy with inflation and much slower growth"

meets anecdote:
headline
"Dow surges nearly 800 points and aims for best day in over a year as Nasdaq, S&P 500 erase weekly losses as angst over Russia-Ukraine clash gives way to buying"


Mtl JP  18:33:08 GMT - 02/25/2022  
1:18 ‘This might be the last time you see me alive’: Zelensky reportedly concedes in call with EU leaders that he’s in peril
01:18 Biden spoke with Zelensky Friday morning, White House says
- MarketWatch


Mtl JP  18:38:52 GMT - 02/25/2022  
sounds like zelensky is sarcastic and bitter


Mtl JP  19:04:46 GMT - 02/25/2022  
 
priceless (uncredited) picture of EU fin mins prend consternation
about peasants and about "values of liberty.”

“All these measures are going to be expensive, also for us,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said Thursday. “But peace also has a price.”

he sounds like justin when he talks about carbon-based fuels' "pollution"

EU finance chiefs grapple with economic fallout from attack



Mtl JP  19:40:56 GMT - 02/25/2022  
Jay your Forex 15:16 post is spoken like an old wily FX fox
check:

"U.S. stock gains accelerate on Friday as angst over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gives way to buying"

"Gold ends lower, marks first weekly decline since January on Russia-Ukraine developments"


Mtl JP  19:45:56 GMT - 02/25/2022  
here is jeff cox with his nickel:

* Economists expect the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger higher global inflation but probably not a recession.

* The importance of the two nations as agriculture exporters and producers of elements key to semiconductor manufacturing will exact an economic toll.

* Broadly, though, Russia’s total economic output is a little smaller than New York state’s, while Ukraine’s GDP is about the size of Nebraska’s.

* Markets still largely expect the Fed to begin raising interest rates in March and continue doing so through 2022 and into 2023.

Inflation will go higher, but Ukraine conflict likely won’t halt economic growth in the U.S.



Mtl JP  10:55:59 GMT - 02/26/2022  
 
week-end trade techs
-
buy - sell - stayaway ?

FB



Mtl JP  11:11:25 GMT - 02/26/2022  
gathering "guidance"
-
With the stock market’s snapback, the focus shifts to Powell testimony and jobs report - Patti Domm/cnbc

Cramer’s week ahead: Inflation takes center stage with retail earnings, Powell testimony - cnbc

Central bank governor says policy makers need to respond forcefully to ‘alarmingly high’ inflation - wsj

Fed’s Christopher Waller Lays Out Case for Half-Point March Rate Increase



Mtl JP  14:59:03 GMT - 02/28/2022  
current pricing theme: "old world" values:
-
Gold 1913
Wheat 900
Brent 97.50-ish

i.e higher


Israel MacroMicro  15:03:59 GMT - 02/28/2022  
Dennis "the (very) elderly" Gartman claims oil had its top.


Mtl JP  15:25:58 GMT - 02/28/2022  
USDCAD 1.2682
-
Bias - somewhat bearish
needs to pop back uP and N of 1.27
else puppy risks breaking out of bottom of current range (on the daily)


NY JM  15:31:30 GMT - 02/28/2022  
A 50bp Fed rate hike is being priced out. 26bp is now expected. Still 2 + weeks to go before the GOMC>


Mtl JP  15:44:54 GMT - 02/28/2022  
EURO 1.1213
-
feels like there is an itch to fill the gap to 1.1250-75ish


Mtl JP  18:40:36 GMT - 02/28/2022  
 
EURO 1.1212
-
my toy still shows a gap.
is that officially correct ?
tia for confirmation


GVI Forex 19:12:15 GMT - 02/28/2022  
Stocks reacting to reports of increased Russian attacks.FX trying to follow


Mtl JP  20:35:42 GMT - 02/28/2022  
kind of a niaaah sort of reaction
sofar


GVI Forex 20:48:38 GMT - 02/28/2022  
more of a yawn reaction.


Mtl JP  21:34:44 GMT - 02/28/2022  
 
Jay let me remind you of your own :
GVI Forex 15:16 GMT February 25, 2022
[Forex View] How to Trade in a Politically Driven Market
---
Bottom Line:
initial reaction more oft than not short-lived
see pic


Mtl JP  22:30:18 GMT - 02/28/2022  
 
JM 15:31 what is your trade plan for th puppy once it ding-dings
the closing of the gap ?


Mtl JP  22:59:21 GMT - 02/28/2022  
keywords: "after", "The videoconference meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council will be a closed session"

upcoming from janet - the benevolent protector of the financial system - yellen:
-
Bloomberg
U.S. Financial-Stability Panel to Discuss Markets Evolution Post Sanctions, Christopher Condon - Feb 28, 2022, 4:20 p.m

A panel of top U.S. financial regulators, led by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, will hold a meeting on Monday to discuss international market developments after allied nations imposed severe financial sanctions on Russia.


Mtl JP  06:12:29 GMT - 03/01/2022  
Brent 99.42
-
sofar looks like $100 barrel not a problem
to economies


Belgrade Knez  07:56:31 GMT - 03/01/2022  
Mtl JP 06:12 GMT March 1, 2022
Brent 99.42
-
sofar looks like $100 barrel not a problem
to economies
-----------------------------------------
June 2008 oil was aprox $147 .... still $50 more to go to take out that high


macao win11  08:31:34 GMT - 03/01/2022  
In term of purchasing power, year 2008 $147 = year 2022 $240

Crude oil $300 in present commodity bull run?


Mtl JP  09:08:16 GMT - 03/01/2022  
depending on the speed of achieving and then staying and potential for further enhacing power of $300 barrel price could spell the (preferably perma) POOF! of both the euro and the EU


Mtl JP  09:44:34 GMT - 03/01/2022  
DLRx 96.77
-
uP some. maybe on report by bbrg:

Biden State of the Union to Cast Climate Bill as Anti-Inflation
- He’ll call for tax credits, climate spending in Tuesday speech
- President to say plan will save average family $500 a year

at 9pm ET tonite



Mtl JP  10:36:56 GMT - 03/01/2022  
"risk" off
Gold uP
DLRx uP
eurdlr DOwn


GVI Forex 10:55:14 GMT - 03/01/2022  
US 2 year 1,337%
Powell testifies tomrroiw

mkt
NY JM 15:31 GMT 02/28/2022 - My Profile
A 50bp Fed rate hike is being priced out. 26bp is now expected. Still 2 + weeks to go before the GOMC>


macao win11  12:05:53 GMT - 03/01/2022  
Market likes to swing one extreme (minus $37) to another extreme ($250-300)?
Big names shout for 11 rate hikes by end of 2023. Do they bet heavily on downside of dollar?


NY JM  12:15:51 GMT - 03/01/2022  
German yields continue to fall (more negative) as well.


Mtl JP  12:20:42 GMT - 03/01/2022  
 
fwiw
a hint
at sentiment in europe
via eurchf


Mtl JP  12:25:46 GMT - 03/01/2022  
before sleepi joe at 9pm:
-
8:30 - Canada 4th Q GDP
9:45 - US Man PMI
10am ISM Manuf

OPEC+ meets via videoconference


Mtl JP  12:36:47 GMT - 03/01/2022  
EURO 1.1169
-
heading into NY, puppy is a bit choppy but
energy vectors suggest pressure towards 1.11 Sup


Mtl JP  12:52:45 GMT - 03/01/2022  
Last - 7:41 AM EST
VIX 30.15; up+1.5331 (+5.36%)

somewhat elevated
would chirp some


Mtl JP  13:08:22 GMT - 03/01/2022  
WTI 101
-
food for powell & gang


Mtl JP  14:19:13 GMT - 03/01/2022  
channeling old french pomp tradition
here is Bruno Le Maire, ministre de l'Economie:

Guerre en Ukraine : "Nous allons provoquer l'effondrement de l'économie russe"

Il a notamment promis de "livrer une guerre économique et financière totale à la Russie"



Mtl JP  14:39:58 GMT - 03/01/2022  
EURO 1.1145
-
there appears little to no appetite to buy the puppy
Res 1.12
Sup 1.11


PAR 15:12:06 GMT - 03/01/2022  
What Bruno Le Maire is doing is exploding the French public debt leading to Weimar-style inflation. Christine Lagarde is his major assistance in creating hyperinflation.

French debt restructuring is not far away.


Mtl JP  15:26:36 GMT - 03/01/2022  
my s/term theory, with its flaws
about euro
-
once the kiev thinggie gets how-ever done,
odds are players will turn attention to inflation in EU
and start spec-pricing what ECB might do about it, ceteris paribus.

so theory says euro likely to continue heave some more
unless somehow ECB comes swinging with anti-inflation rhetoric


Mtl JP  16:17:40 GMT - 03/01/2022  
EURO 1.1125
-
puppy still travelling south some
maybe to test 1.1106 prev low
and 1.11 Sup


Mtl JP  16:46:29 GMT - 03/01/2022  
EURO 1.1104
-
some arguing about 1.11 likely


Mtl JP  17:58:34 GMT - 03/01/2022  
EURO 1.1115
-
1.11 veni vidi
LoD 1.10895 and ...
sellers poof! and stop pushing further down
still.. Q remains: who wants to be short the dlr
watch yields I guess


Mtl JP  18:37:00 GMT - 03/01/2022  
almost as if jeff cox issuing orders to jerome
but pray tell jeff: who wants calm markets ??
no money in calm markets
-
* Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addresses separate House and Senate panels this week as part of biannual hearings on monetary policy.

* Fears over the Russian invasion of Ukraine have coincided with markets quietly dialing down their expectations for Fed action.

* Powell will have to convince Congress the Fed is doing more to combat inflation at a time when the markets think it will be doing less.

* “The balancing act is going to be difficult,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

With inflation and Ukraine, Powell must thread a needle on Capitol Hill this week to calm markets 15 MIN AGO, Jeff Cox via cnbc



Mtl JP  18:45:56 GMT - 03/01/2022  
us 10-yr 1.687% down-0.152


PAR 19:44:47 GMT - 03/01/2022  
PPT getting ready for last hour stock market boost.
Rates down, stocks up. Double intervention?


Mtl JP  21:04:13 GMT - 03/01/2022  
maybe I have a wrong impression
but it seems as If zelensky is not biden's top priority concern and commitment:
-
Biden spoke with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky for a half-hour on Tuesday
March 1, 2022 3:21 pm

Ukrainian president after Biden phone call: ‘The American leadership on anti-Russian sanctions and defense assistance to Ukraine was discussed. We must stop the aggressor as soon as possible. Thank you for your support!’

President Biden spoke Tuesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for more than 30 minutes, the White House said.

Details on the phone call are expected to be released later in the day.

On Twitter, Zelensky said he had just spoken to Biden: “The American leadership on anti-Russian sanctions and defense assistance to Ukraine was discussed. We must stop the aggressor as soon as possible. Thank you for your support!”

‘Nobody will forgive. Nobody will forget,’ says Ukraine President Zelensky. ‘This attack on Kharkiv is a war crime.’

The White House said the pair discussed the U.S.’s “sustained help for Ukraine, including ongoing deliveries of security assistance, economic support and humanitarian aid.”

The two leaders “discussed how the United States, along with Allies and partners, is working to hold Russia accountable, including by imposing sanctions that are already having an impact on the Russian economy,” the White House said.
----
----
here is how cnn's Matthew Chance reports it:

Zelensky urges Biden to send strong message on Russia and says: 'I'm not iconic. Ukraine is iconic'



Mtl JP  21:10:37 GMT - 03/01/2022  
summary on yields
-
What are yields doing?

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.727% declined 12.8 basis points to 1.708% from 1.836% at 3 p.m. Eastern on Monday. That’s the lowest since Jan. 13. The rate is down 27.6 basis points over the last two trading days, its largest two-day decline since March 23, 2020, based on 3 p.m. levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The 2-year Treasury yield fell 12.3 basis points to 1.303% versus 1.426% on Monday afternoon. It’s down 28.1 basis points this week for the largest two-day decline since Oct. 2, 2008.

The rate on the 30-year Treasury bond declined 7.5 basis points to 2.104% from 2.179% on Monday. That’s down 19 basis points over the last two trading days, the largest two-day decline since Nov. 26 of last year.

via marketwatch



Mtl JP  21:39:44 GMT - 03/01/2022  
PAR 19:44 - not today. maybe not an optimal time for a return to throw money at the market: The S&P 500 skidded into a correction to close out Tuesday

Stocks Slide, Oil Tops $100—and What Else Is Happening in the Stock Market Today



Mtl JP  00:03:34 GMT - 03/02/2022  
NIKKEI 26410
-
directional ideas for puppy's takeoff ?


Mtl JP  02:19:57 GMT - 03/02/2022  
apparently biden
- Condemns Putin, and
- Promises to Fight Rising Prices and
- rally the world to stand up for democracy


Mtl JP  02:44:24 GMT - 03/02/2022  
brent 110.85
and flying

it has been said , by a wise old man on the form, that sufficiently high prices are self correcting


Mtl JP  03:07:13 GMT - 03/02/2022  
 
players pricing 5% probability of no hike
NO HIKE sherlock ???

means players are starting to price some badshitnews


dc CB  05:21:33 GMT - 03/02/2022  
""means players are starting to price some badshitnews""

They as you call them 'players' have never seen anything like this in their lifetimes---average 30-35 years.

They were not even in high school when --- The Genius that Failed----failed....

Helmed by some all-in-for-sure-Nobel Prize Winners guiding--the godlike Bond Trader from The Godlike Salmon Bros BOND Trading Firm---LongTermCapitalMangement...

Almost SANK the entire Boat.

Monitoring 'the players'----a fools game


dc CB  05:25:32 GMT - 03/02/2022  
Almost SANK the entire Boat.

Betting the WRONG SIDE of RUSSIAN BONDS----with Derrey-IV-A-Tives with Levrage.

Lerverage ----isn't he the Russian ambassador??


dc CB  08:03:07 GMT - 03/02/2022  
Dear Captain Obvious---plural--the local Group--doing those---OOOO sheit, I meant the END Of THE EURo....etc....Macao (oooo Ididn't really mean that!! I mean't the OPPOSITE)

while you're Navel Grazing and watching "da players"

GRAINS--(Particularly WHEAT-----think UKRAINE---Think Breadbasket of Europe)

Hello AMAZING TRADER dude---Now (past) was the time to Exhibit your SAGE Wiley Advice.


Good Luck----


dc CB  08:07:50 GMT - 03/02/2022  
US CBOE Wheat Locked Limit UP

Expanded Limits today 75Cents----after yest 50 cents..............the Shorts HELL on Steriods.

1Cent Equals $50/contract. Sorry Navel Gazers---waitin' on a FED MOUTH

GV---like that Niel Young song----Helpless helpless helpess.....


dc CB  08:49:11 GMT - 03/02/2022  
 
"
Hello AMAZING TRADER dude---Now (past) was the time to Exhibit your SAGE Wiley Advice.
"

The last few who thot they had a successful CLUE----but they proceeded from the idea that Markits WERE NOT Rigged.

So much for them--though they still have their Legacy writ wild in the History of Finance....

Don't you Dare pick on our Forebears --who foolishly based their investing/trading precepts on Honest Assessments....

What Fools.

Fortunately today you only lose your Shirt---no one sticks a gun to your head and SEZ ---pay---where's MY Money.

like they do in cartoons.

You wouldn't do that to a dog....esp one of the family



GVI Forex 10:36:49 GMT - 03/02/2022  
Posted yesterday

NY JM 12:15 GMT March 1, 2022
mkt: Reply
German yields continue to fall (more negative) as well.


Mtl JP  12:11:10 GMT - 03/02/2022  
WTI 109
Brent 110.99
-
(cnbc) "An influential energy alliance known as OPEC+ will meet on Wednesday to determine the next phase of production policy. ... . ...

OPEC and non-OPEC partners are slated to convene at 12:30 p.m. London time. Energy analysts broadly expect the producer alliance to stick to its plan of raising its crude output quota by 400,000 barrels per day for April."


Caribbean! Rafe...  16:56:10 GMT - 03/02/2022  
dc CB 08:49 GMT 03/02/2022

Whatever about selling those poupon stained pants...


Caribbean! Rafe...  17:35:32 GMT - 03/02/2022  
dc CB 08:49 GMT 03/02/2022

hu bleu yew? Oumuamua!

.... Whatever they did about selling those Poupon stained pants...


dc CB  04:46:50 GMT - 03/03/2022  
May Chicago Wheat hit Limit Up again tonight ---that 75 cents.
Didn't stick ----backed off now up 74 and 1/4 cents.


Mtl JP  12:41:38 GMT - 03/03/2022  
**
what is your horse of choice to trade today ?


Mtl JP  12:55:33 GMT - 03/03/2022  
feeling safe ?
-
according to WSJ
Blinken To Visit Poland, Baltics, Moldova In Support Of Ukraine
US top diplomat Antony Blinken will travel in the coming days to Belgium, Poland, the Baltic states and Moldova to reaffirm Washington’s support for Ukraine, the State Department announced Wednesday.

from March 3 to March 8


Hk Ab  13:05:58 GMT - 03/03/2022  
How such a strong support without Biden himself?


Mtl JP  14:10:44 GMT - 03/03/2022  
EUro 1.1080/85
-
bias: down
res 1.1135
sup 1.1070/60

and keeping eye on US 10-YR 1.868%


Mtl JP  14:40:57 GMT - 03/03/2022  
 
ahead of jerome take 2
-
US 10-YR 1.877% +0.012
after initial bout of enthusiasm stocks now not liking it


Mtl JP  14:43:45 GMT - 03/03/2022  
on deck
-
top of hour: powell
at noon: barkin on economy
six pm: williams on same topic


Mtl JP  14:48:00 GMT - 03/03/2022  
here is what jeff cox wants players to take away from powell:
-
"He expects the Fed to raise its benchmark borrowing rate a quarter-percentage point at the March policy meeting, but added that he will consider potentially larger increases if inflation remains hot."

Watch Federal Reserve Chair Powell speak live on policy before Senate committee



Mtl JP  15:09:30 GMT - 03/03/2022  
more moRE MORE
what is the total to date ?
not nuff:
-
"White House asks Congress for additional $32.5 billion to support Ukraine, fight Covid" - cnbc


Mtl JP  15:34:44 GMT - 03/03/2022  
 
players interpreting jerome


Mtl JP  15:40:12 GMT - 03/03/2022  
 
moving afst now
d-moment


Mtl JP  15:48:34 GMT - 03/03/2022  
 
theoretical trgt now


london red  16:08:13 GMT - 03/03/2022  
11048 an extension of highs c 115 and 1169x


london red  16:09:14 GMT - 03/03/2022  
correction 11071 is extension. while below this down. presnt 11048


Israel MacroMicro  16:21:50 GMT - 03/03/2022  
FED'S POWELL: WE WANT TO PUT BALANCE-SHEET SHRINKING ON THE BACK BURNER.


==================================================

chickened


Israel MacroMicro  16:26:40 GMT - 03/03/2022  
does OIL turn into the new Putin ?!

FED'S POWELL: WHAT COUNTS FOR INFLATION IS HOW LONG THE RISE IN OIL PRICES LASTS.


Israel MacroMicro  16:27:51 GMT - 03/03/2022  
followed by the punchline:

FED'S POWELL: AS A RULE OF THUMB, A $10 INCREASE IN OIL EQUALS AROUND TWO-TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT INCREASE IN INFLATION.


Mtl JP  22:26:30 GMT - 03/03/2022  
can't find anything barkin yakked
see what , if anything, williams shares
at top of hour

something tells me post-jerome not much
not much to contradict the well of deep knowledge and
fountain of infinite inspiration


Mtl JP  00:20:17 GMT - 03/04/2022  
back to 1.1036
as something just hit the sell eurdlr button


Mtl JP  00:31:20 GMT - 03/04/2022  
ditto eurchf


GVI Forex 00:34:36 GMT - 03/04/2022  
Europe's largest nuclear power plant on fire after Russian attack, says local mayor (Rtrs headline)


Mtl JP  00:52:54 GMT - 03/04/2022  
lets see how this works out:
"Reuters could not immediately verify the information."


Mtl JP  00:57:41 GMT - 03/04/2022  
 
maybe all the way to test 1.0650



Mtl JP  01:06:02 GMT - 03/04/2022  
1.1025 LoD 1.1011
so the Q is .. is this a spook story
and someone juicing the market


dc CB  02:36:54 GMT - 03/04/2022  
Aww Fu(K

Wheat LIMIT UP again.

What shud O Trade Today----or Shuda Traded 3 or is of 4 or 5 or 6 Days ago--

GVI---AT Losers


dc CB  05:09:37 GMT - 03/04/2022  
dc CB 02:36 GMT 03/04/2022
Aww Fu(K

Wheat LIMIT UP again.

What shud I've Traded Today----or Shuda Traded 3 or is of 4 or 5 or 6 Days ago--
________________________________

George Soros only needed One Trade to become a legend and a 'world whatever'.

LMAO

keep on looking for that 'handicapper' at the Race Track for that 'million dollar' sure bet horse......at GVI --- home of the Amazing Trader---system at only $$$$(?) per Month for the next Sure Bet winning horse.


every day .....LOL


Mtl JP  06:06:47 GMT - 03/04/2022  
EURO 1.1025 (high since "says local mayor" 1.1039)

rtrs, AP, wsj, cnn, bbrg ... not yet feeling stupid ?

IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency
@iaeaorg
#Ukraine tells IAEA that fire at site of #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has not affected “essential” equipment, plant personnel taking mitigatory actions.


Israel MacroMicro  06:40:50 GMT - 03/04/2022  
dc CB 05:09 GMT 03/04/2022

stop being rude, Mr. Jay knows some, but not everything. as most of us. he is just about making a living. no point attacking him for things he cannot see.


Mtl JP  06:50:39 GMT - 03/04/2022  
nothing beats keeping mind sharp as little stress
such as "monitoring updates"
-
US 10-YR 1.794% -0.05

Stock futures slide as investors monitor updates surrounding Ukraine nuclear power plant

UK to call for emergency UN Security Council meeting after Russia attacks Ukrainian nuclear power plant

Ukrainian officials say nuclear power plant secure after Russian attack

srce: cnbc


Israel MacroMicro  07:47:18 GMT - 03/04/2022  
EUR/USD sub 1.10 print is unavoidable

for today the critical zone is 1.0960 as under it "strange" things may start happening


100% sure, PPT is not dead and no central bank has plans to kill PPT now

have a great weekend


Mtl JP  12:11:02 GMT - 03/04/2022  
EURO 1.0980
-
sub 1.10 but I dare say not in reaction to
unsubstantiated bullchitt made up by some - who might that be - propagandist.

"first victim of war: truth"


Mtl JP  12:15:19 GMT - 03/04/2022  
 
US 10-YR 1.772% -0.072
-
and in NY "risk" is looking to open down
it is unusual as stocks typically like lower cost of money
but , obviously, not always


Mtl JP  12:25:38 GMT - 03/04/2022  
one keyword missing
spot which one:
-
"We are witnessing the remaking of the world order in front of our eyes — and this will impact global supply chains in unforeseen ways.

We are about to experience the most dramatic and unpredictable supply chain map we’ve experienced since World War II."

The second Cold War is here — and supply chains will be the front lines
FreightWaves Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves March 2, 2022



Mtl JP  12:56:20 GMT - 03/04/2022  
 
EURO 1.0950
-
and 350 miles left to go
how easy / hard will they be
who knows, seems soooo obvious


Israel MacroMicro  12:57:20 GMT - 03/04/2022  
capitulation or a bounce ?

EUR/USD


Mtl JP  13:04:10 GMT - 03/04/2022  
DLRx 98.50
-
exponentially enthusiastic
girls know: what goes uP ...


Israel MacroMicro  13:12:37 GMT - 03/04/2022  
EUR/USD 1.0903 will not print today

Ahmed


Mtl JP  13:23:27 GMT - 03/04/2022  
coming up at bottom of hour
-
NFP "experts" forecast -413k vs 467k last print


Mtl JP  13:36:22 GMT - 03/04/2022  
NFP 678K
for the record


Mtl JP  13:40:43 GMT - 03/04/2022  
and ... wages were flat
-
ie peasants r like hamsters in wheel
maybe ... just maybe economic reality and attitude towards taking a job a-changing


Minneapolis DRS2  13:43:30 GMT - 03/04/2022  
So much for 0903...


Mtl JP  13:43:33 GMT - 03/04/2022  
 
"1.0903 will not print today"
-
POOF!
liar


Israel MacroMicro  13:44:36 GMT - 03/04/2022  
I am so sorry that 1.0903 printed today


Israel MacroMicro  13:47:31 GMT - 03/04/2022  
JP

I take the liar in humor , punch another one and you will get punch back / lol


Minneapolis DRS2  13:49:00 GMT - 03/04/2022  
There's nothing to be sorry about...it is what it is. There are both fundamental and technical (chart-reading) reasons why EUR/USD is selling hard. There's a lot of violence going on in Europe, providing a reason to sell EUR and/or buy USD. Also, it would not be unreasonable to look at the charts posted earlier and think that the market is headed for 1.06.


Israel MacroMicro  13:49:13 GMT - 03/04/2022  
lol

come on DRS2 ... LOD will not get far from 1.0903 , right?


Israel MacroMicro  13:50:06 GMT - 03/04/2022  
tell me when that 1.06 DRS2, tell me when, then we talk R/R :)


Israel MacroMicro  13:53:58 GMT - 03/04/2022  
since March 2020 EUR/USD did not have such wide daily range in %


Israel MacroMicro  13:56:57 GMT - 03/04/2022  
in general, market turns volatile enough to start looking for a bottom the coming days / imo


Minneapolis DRS2  13:59:49 GMT - 03/04/2022  
The fact is that today there has been nothing but selling in EUR/USD. Therefore the retail trader is best served by selling rather than buying.

This is real apparent for AT users...there are nothing but blue ladder lines on all timeframes. You can't get a bigger trading call than that.

As for the target price? Who cares? (I question if the algos do.) "Sell baby sell" (at least for today), and keep on selling until your stops are broken.


Israel MacroMicro  14:01:18 GMT - 03/04/2022  
did you just called the LOD DRS2 ???

lol


Israel MacroMicro  14:02:11 GMT - 03/04/2022  
after that sub 1.09, I know only one button, the BUY button

BYE


Minneapolis DRS2  14:03:00 GMT - 03/04/2022  
The LOD is only an issue relative to your timeframe and risk management...


Mtl JP  14:20:35 GMT - 03/04/2022  
US 10-YR 1.756% -0.088
-
earlier low: 1.70, overnite high 1.85

re EURO 1.0925
bias: bear
but technically oversold (see my earlier comment about what girls know)
Res 1.10 and 1.1050 +/- few pips
close around 1.10 would likely be needed to tame the waterfall




Mtl JP  14:30:22 GMT - 03/04/2022  
re that fire reported earlier
-
european stock took a bigger grubbing than NA stocks
what more do u need to know relative vulnerability ?


Mtl JP  14:39:51 GMT - 03/04/2022  
this should go over well
-
Beijing will pay if it helps Russia evade sanctions, US State Department official warns
‘China, if it were to seek to evade the sanctions, or somehow dividing the sanctions, they would be vulnerable,’ says Derek Chollet

Derek Chollet is a senior adviser in the US Department of State



london red  15:17:41 GMT - 03/04/2022  
JP, re fallout of that particular ukrainian reactor, think fukushima not chernobyl. and forget the tidal wave part, cos there aint no sea there.


Mtl JP  16:30:13 GMT - 03/04/2022  
abel 16:18 do you think NATO is lying ?

Russian forces seize Ukrainian nuclear power plant; NATO says it is not seeking war with Moscow



jkt abel  16:33:58 GMT - 03/04/2022  
JP, NATO is a joke, losing credibility fast, so as Biden
NATO=No Action Talk Only


jkt abel  16:36:32 GMT - 03/04/2022  
JP, gold which first 1940 or 1975?


Mtl JP  16:41:17 GMT - 03/04/2022  
I d hate to mis-estimate nato's benevolence and magnanimity


Mtl JP  16:42:29 GMT - 03/04/2022  
after all they have the german firmly under their heel
sofar at least


jkt abel  16:47:32 GMT - 03/04/2022  
all good only on surface for NATO, the ground is shaky for the members


jkt abel  16:48:25 GMT - 03/04/2022  
you only have to follow gold making new highs


jkt abel  16:53:16 GMT - 03/04/2022  
you blink you lose 1975 next tonight still


bali sja  16:54:57 GMT - 03/04/2022  
let's see if we can close above 1950 today first, cheriooss


jkt abel  17:24:34 GMT - 03/04/2022  
buy 1960 for 1975


Mtl JP  17:26:30 GMT - 03/04/2022  
jeff cox reporting on evans' position
-
-- Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned Friday that small businesses could take a particularly hard hit from surging inflation.

-- He repeated his position that current Fed policy on interest rates is “wrong-footed” and will need to adapt.

Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans cautions on inflation’s hit to small businesses



Mtl JP  18:16:33 GMT - 03/04/2022  
WTI 112.44
-
as Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil was down by three to 519 this week

chastised as dirty and social outcasts why should fossil fuel cos deploy risk capital when their ROI is currently going gangbusters


dc CB  18:50:43 GMT - 03/04/2022  
Food Crisis Imminent: Hungary Bans All Grains Exports Effective Immediately

(Update 1:25pm ET) - Those who have it, are no longer giving it away, and those that don't will soon find themselves in the middle of an epic food crisis.

Just hours after we reported that Russia effectively banned exports of fertilizers, moments ago Hungary - one of Europe's most grain rich nations - has circled the wagons and realizing which way the wind is blowing, just announced that it will banning all grain exports effective immediately, in a statement .

Expect wheat prices, already at record highs, to promptly double from here in the next few weeks as the world realizes the extent of the global food crisis that is coming.

Earlier

This morning we listed some of the countries that are dangerously (and almost exclusively) reliant on Russia and Ukraine for their wheat imports, highlighting Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and others...

... which are facing an "Arab Spring" style food crisis (and potential uprising) in the coming weeks unless the Ukraine conflict is resolved.

And unfortunately, we can now confidently predict that the coming food crisis will strike every country that is using food fertilizer - which is all - because moments ago, Russian Interfax reported that as part of Moscow's countersanctions, Russia has recommended fertilizer makers to halt exports, a move which will sent not only fertilizer prices orbitally higher, but all food prices will soon follow.

*RUSSIA RECOMMENDS FERTILIZER MAKERS TO HALT EXPORTS: IFX
*RUSSIAN MINISTRY CITES LOGISTICS ISSUES ON FERTILIZERS: IFX

Worse still, natural gas is required in the manufacturing process for most nitrogen/fertilizer products and so the recent surge in European NatGas prices to record highs will only exacerbate the cost of fertilizer from any halt from Russia...

Stuff we eat



Mtl JP  18:58:29 GMT - 03/04/2022  
what ... no cake to feed 'em


dc CB  19:03:43 GMT - 03/04/2022  
 
this is what a Locked Limit chart looks like-----No getting In---No getting Out.

This is what Lumber could have done---Lumber has a average daily volume in the low thousands. I warned of this when that "hot shot"
trader MiniMicro was telling people here to get into Lumber futures.

Clueless about real risk of ruin....another 20 something


london red  19:22:05 GMT - 03/04/2022  
agco. you know it makes sense. agro-tech the new data.


Mtl JP  19:52:41 GMT - 03/04/2022  
 
canada too has a few fert producers
-
let your fingers do the walking


Mtl JP  20:14:38 GMT - 03/04/2022  
 
fertilizer giants
according to bbrg


Mtl JP  20:40:47 GMT - 03/04/2022  
"truth" tellers bbc, now cbc
POOF! from russia

odds are, inside next few days, documenting war images will get cruder, raw-er as tiktok twitter etc gain in prominence


Mtl JP  22:03:42 GMT - 03/04/2022  
EURO 1.0931
eurchf 1.0026
euro 1.09 price line holds
maybe because , technically, it is so oversold
-
Under current "fundamental" conditions
there appears little propensity to be short dollar
as "shock" things geo-political/military could again catalyze
huge opening gap (hello 1.08xx) over the week-end

Puppy will likely need to close N of 1.10 + to suggest a minimum hint of relief rally / turn.


dc CB  20:47:49 GMT - 03/05/2022  
 
remember the 'Arab Spring' was blamed on the high cost of wheat----by the same necons in the US 'O' regime when Egypt revolted and Libya was destroyed.

another page in the playbook----The Book of Color Revolutions.
Page 32, subsection 4..00, rev 2022.


Mtl JP  16:43:31 GMT - 03/06/2022  
"If a person is important,people will line up to visit him even if he lives in a remote mountain village..If a person is not important,nobody will visit him even if he lives in the centre of a busy town"..(Chinese proveb).."
- shanghai bc, Nov 2006
---------------------------
"reporting" versions on Israeli Bennett's 3hr + saturday (imagine that: on sabbath) meeting with Russia’s Putin in Moscow

according to cnn:
"with the blessing of US administration"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israels-prime-minister-speaks-out-after-three-hour-putin-meeting/vi-AAUGqcd

according to jpost:
"Bennett informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in advance of the meeting with Putin, and called him before departing Moscow. Bennett also spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, according to Ynet. ... . Bennett coordinated his trip to Moscow in advance with the US, France and Germany"
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-700416

according to haaretz:
"The Biden administration was informed of the meeting in advance and supported it, Israeli officials said"




Mtl JP  09:15:48 GMT - 03/07/2022  
shocking conclusion. or not
according to Julia Horowitz, CNN Business
-
"In times of crisis, there's no currency investors and policymakers would rather hold. The dollar accounted for 60% of global reserves in 2021."

Gold, circa 2,000 new high vs the dlr new low, says something else.

DLRx, dont forget, is just fiat vs fiat

War in Ukraine has sparked a scramble for dollars



Mtl JP  15:51:03 GMT - 03/07/2022  
 
eurchf 1.0072
-
SnB had nuff of the stretch of the gap ?


Mtl JP  16:05:51 GMT - 03/07/2022  
EURO 1.0875
-
bearish
Res 1.09, 50, 1.10
Sup 1.08, 1.0725/00
-- IF below that : reassess


Mtl JP  16:12:37 GMT - 03/07/2022  
not by sailboat (or zoom)
-
justin trudeau
- in europe serially meeting with "other world leaders"; he will also have an audience with the Queen

- kamala harris travels to Poland and Romania March 9-11 to meet with their leaders
--- to discuss continuing security, economic and humanitarian support for Ukraine and how the U.S. can help support Ukrainian refugees fleeing to neighboring countries.
“Her visit will demonstrate the strength and unity of the NATO Alliance and U.S. support for NATO’s eastern flank allies in the face of Russian aggression,” according to harris’ spokeswoman Singh


dc CB  23:35:05 GMT - 03/07/2022  
 
Mtl JP 16:12 GMT 03/07/2022 - My Profile
not by sailboat (or zoom)
-
justin trudeau
- in europe serially meeting with "other world leaders"; he will also have an audience with the Queen
_____________________________________________________

WmBanzai7-----just-for-you. Cheers.
----Go Wheat---another Lock Limit Day----85cents--



Mtl JP  00:02:14 GMT - 03/08/2022  
Heading into Asia
nikkei225 24620
dlryen 115.36

lets see how asians will react to NY:
sherlock: "Stocks Fell Sharply. The Dow Plunged Nearly 800 Points."
-
The Dow Jones Industrial Average just closed in correction territory with a loss Monday of nearly 800 points. That means investors are getting more nervous about the economic outlook, but history says things gets better from here.

The Dow is now in a correction, technically defined as a drop of 10% below a recent high. At Monday’s closing level of 32,817—2.4% below the closing level on Friday—the index is 10.8% below its early January record high of 36,799.

The Nasdaq Composite index, rich with technology shares, tumbled 3.6% on Monday. The index closed near its worst levels of the day.

Since closing on Nov. 19 at 16,057.44, the Nasdaq Composite has now fallen 20.1%, crossing the 20% threshold that traditionally defines a bear market.


dc CB  01:10:33 GMT - 03/08/2022  
Time to Exit the Wheat trade....hope all are fat and happy---wallet-wise.



dc CB  03:59:01 GMT - 03/08/2022  
justin trudeau

Wait wait---always consider New evidence---else you are doomed.

Is Just-in-Time smarter than the average bear??? what IF??


Canada Says Its Oil Could Replace U.S. Imports Of Russian Crude
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 07, 2022, 11:00 AM CST

Justin learned jujitsu????



dc CB  17:39:19 GMT - 03/08/2022  
Chicago Soft Winter Wheat----LIMIT DN 130cents

dc CB 01:10 GMT 03/08/2022
Time to Exit the Wheat trade....hope all are fat and happy---wallet-wise.


dc CB  17:43:33 GMT - 03/08/2022  
 
wild week Wheat


Mtl JP  01:36:57 GMT - 03/13/2022  
"If a person is important,people will line up to visit him even if he lives in a remote mountain village..If a person is not important,nobody will visit him even if he lives in the centre of a busy town"..(Chinese proveb).."
- shanghai bc, Nov 2006
---------------------------
FIRST:
Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis - wsj.com
3 days ago - The White House unsuccessfully tried to arrange calls between President Biden and the de facto leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the U.S. was working to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices, said Middle East and U.S. officials.

NOW:
Boris Johnson May Visit Saudi Arabia for Talks on Oil, Sky Says
March 12, 2022, 1:21 PM EST
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson may travel to Saudi Arabia next week for talks on oil, Sky News reported without saying where it got the information

Makes me not only wonder about saudi apparent lack of sympathy (enthusiastic help) and solidarity with the "west" s oil pickle to the point of sending biden hat-in-hand to venezuela and now, potentially, humiliating boris but about dynamics in the grander scheme of things


Mtl JP  09:59:24 GMT - 03/17/2022  
"If a person is important,people will line up to visit him even if he lives in a remote mountain village..If a person is not important,nobody will visit him even if he lives in the centre of a busy town"..(Chinese proveb).."
- shanghai bc, Nov 2006
--
first they plinked off biden
then boris went crawling hat-in-hand

now
"Blinken is planning to visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel and the West Bank territory later in March"
- Axios


Mtl JP  10:07:38 GMT - 03/17/2022  
 
do you believe / trust patti domm
"The 2-year Treasury yield ... most reflects Fed policy"
-
US2Y: 1.916% at 6:01 AM EDT (off 2% high)


Mtl JP  10:13:47 GMT - 03/17/2022  
comedy continues
-
"Nickel falls 8% to hit limit down in chaotic trade on London metal exchange" - cnbc


Mtl JP  10:32:10 GMT - 03/17/2022  
 
"risk" heading into NY session
-
muted or what
which side should I choose,
to preferably add posi$$ to account


Israel MacroMicro  11:24:46 GMT - 03/17/2022  
cable now @ 1.3195

I wonder within how many minutes WFAK will appear and will make a statement that 1.3165 is 100% confirmed ?

add sells if rise as it will return to 1.3195

good trades :)


Israel MacroMicro  11:40:19 GMT - 03/17/2022  
JAPAN'S PM KISHIDA: I EXPRESSED HIGH EXPECTATIONS TO SAUDI ARABIA'S CROWN PRINCE, FOR ITS LEADERSHIP IN STABILISING THE CRUDE OIL MARKET.


Israel MacroMicro  12:02:30 GMT - 03/17/2022  
well done WFAK, the only one !!!


Mtl JP  14:08:34 GMT - 03/17/2022  
 
SnP 4361
-
I am writting it off to Nigel JUBB


Mtl JP  14:16:07 GMT - 03/17/2022  
peeps in cnbc:
-
"S&P 500 rises in volatile trading, as Wall Street tries to build on monster 2-day rally"

tks !


Mtl JP  14:22:16 GMT - 03/17/2022  
EURO 1.1079
-
frollicking with 1.1070 earlier high
still below the 50 and 100day

maybe a stop hunt to 1.1120ish attempt


Israel MacroMicro  14:23:47 GMT - 03/17/2022  
EUR/USD > 1.1080 == safe scalping short with patience :)


Israel MacroMicro  14:26:42 GMT - 03/17/2022  
1.1045/50 a very high certainty print for the rest of this week

the safe side of the moon :)


Mtl JP  17:11:58 GMT - 03/17/2022  
gee ...
-
Why Russian people need tech companies to stay, not withdraw: It’s terrifying ‘how dark that place could become' - Lauren Feiner on cnbc

alternately, lets see
How terrifying ‘how dark the US could become’

Some Qs:
traffic lights, railways, elevators, public water, electricity, telecommunications, institutional (banking, hospitals etc) ... only partially/sporadically working or FULL STOP.
are you prepared ? How ?
nevermind


Minneapolis DRS2  17:38:10 GMT - 03/17/2022  
Mtl JP 17:11 GMT 03/17/2022

Have you spoken to any home builders lately?

Any carpenters perhaps?

Go onto any site where homes are being built, and you will see that the homes of today are not built like the homes of decades ago. At one time, everything was site-built from scratch using dimensional lumber, plywood, etc. Nowadays everything is built using prefabricated modules...roofs, staircases, floors, that kind of stuff.

The older fellows still have the base carpentry skills for designing and putting together those components. The younger fellows? Not so much.

The whole of western society is like that, and not just in home building. A lot of people are clueless.


Mtl JP  17:49:30 GMT - 03/17/2022  
homebuilders around here , in general,
- sign contracts for "no less than x, but final max price yet undeteremined and no fixed delivery date"
- have resorted to purchasing certain machines to build some structural components on site for as delivery needed

in ref to "inflation": trades have signed higher hourly rates. Once the contract is signed, that is it. There is only one way for builders to get out of those: go titsup. BUT the trades rates are not going down.
Concept of "transitory" is just a delusion.


Mtl JP  17:56:06 GMT - 03/17/2022  
and the official 5.7% inflation rate here is a general public joke

the "attitude" shapers should probably be bit more careful with their propaganda if they are concerned with anchored expectations and their own credibility


Israel MacroMicro  10:46:17 GMT - 03/18/2022  
keyword: PATIENCE

guess what, EUR/USD sub 1.1045 is back here still this week :)


Israel MacroMicro  11:58:19 GMT - 03/18/2022  
UKRAINE

Biden expects Xi to help him with water to take down the fire.

Xi may surprise with arriving loaded with cheap oil he got during recent weeks as strategic decision to see if the world is ready for a new boss/elite ...

interesting times ahead


Israel MacroMicro  11:59:01 GMT - 03/18/2022  
that means, VOLATILITY is to stay the coming times (days/weeks)

imo


Mtl JP  12:18:29 GMT - 03/18/2022  
according to wapo:
-
What to expect from Biden’s first call with China’s Xi on Ukraine

apparently the crowd behind biden thinks that XI is worried about his chances vis-a-vis taiwan, surprised by 1) how he has allegedly been kept out of vlad's intentions and 2) "west"s cohesive stance against vlad's russia, couched as "Beijing had agreed to the meeting, initiated by the White House, out of consideration for bilateral relations and the desire to “urge the United States to take the right stance.”

What to expect from Biden’s first call with China’s Xi on Ukraine



Israel MacroMicro  12:28:02 GMT - 03/18/2022  
on one side of the line, a president who got elected after making public rallies supported by people using their car horns to show support.

on the other side of the line, a president chosen to apply multi century strategy.

in the middle the line... a line that will get broken or mutual interests really exist?

that's how I see China and USA 2022


Mtl JP  13:14:32 GMT - 03/18/2022  
EURO 1.1009, DXY 98.56
-
Player seems - to me - to be "on the defensive"
- sanctions on vlad, so far at least, do not appear to be bringing about suggested result (so like a mule: more moRE, again again)
- DLR is on the uP (from 97.75) - in safe haven role atm
- euro , if refering to 1.08 = in a bid, IF ref vs 1.11 to keep bid mood would need to close above it.

bunch of mushroom feeders on deck today, next week it ll rain a real deluge of mushroom farmers including the fearless leader and fountain of inspiration jerome himself


Mtl JP  13:22:46 GMT - 03/18/2022  
EURO 1.1005
-
after a fruit-fly's half-life attempt at 1.11+, sub 1.1050 puppy now testing 1.10

choose your side carefully
it is said that it is the brave that reap rewards and glory


Mtl JP  13:33:07 GMT - 03/18/2022  
to me a sign of End of the World (as we have know it until now) is near is
pics of "Sir Rod Stewart has documented how he filled several potholes in his area due to the fact he can’t drive his Ferrari."



Israel MacroMicro  13:33:47 GMT - 03/18/2022  
1.1070 gonna be the true test area for the rest of today / imo


Mtl JP  14:07:29 GMT - 03/18/2022  
Joint Statement of Heads of International Financial Institutions with Programs in Ukraine and Neighboring Countries - imf.org

We, the heads of the EBRD, EIB, CEB, IMF, and WBG, met today to discuss impacts on the global economy of the ongoing war in Ukraine anaad our respective and collective response to this crisis. We are horrified and deeply concerned about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing crisis. .../..

Joint Statement



Israel MacroMicro  14:13:40 GMT - 03/18/2022  
CHINA’S PRESIDENT XI: CONFLICTS AND CONFRONTATIONS ARE NOT USEFUL TO ANYONE. - CCTV.

------------------------------------------------------------

also can read:

CHINA’S PRESIDENT XI: CONFLICTS AND CONFRONTATIONS ARE NOT USEFUL TO ANYONE else. - CCTV.

LOL


Mtl JP  14:25:48 GMT - 03/18/2022  
euro uP, usd DOwn some, stocks uP
into the week-end as vlad now using cruise missiles

not adding up in my math


macao win11  14:50:18 GMT - 03/18/2022  
Guess the incident almost comes to an end.


Mtl JP  15:57:01 GMT - 03/18/2022  
EURO 1.1045
-
clearly players are not committed to one theme
yingyang 1.1050 - 1.1004 - 1.1045
just arguing

kashkari yaks at top of hour
barkin and bowman follow later


Israel MacroMicro  16:09:45 GMT - 03/18/2022  
that 1.1070 I mentioned, take it as give and take few for today. as important MA cross just happened in near term (narrow) time resolutions.

called it a week, have a great weekend :)


Israel MacroMicro  16:26:10 GMT - 03/18/2022  
that 1.1070.... claimed to be the target when market was @ 1.1005... point is, with $$$ equal to 50% of the RISK there, options made x10++ than the "classic trade", luckily and as fluke, realized and acted right in advance when expected VOLATILITY being name of the game.

check the thread, if you did not follow :)

gone, for real :)

lol


Israel MacroMicro  16:40:00 GMT - 03/18/2022  
Mtl JP

I am at least 20 years younger than you, and I call you a ROOKIE when it comes to trading.

why?! because you are a brown tongue addicted to your bookie mentality and you called me a liar. where your calls in real market conditions? I assume at the same place that your panties are 99% of time are BROWN while you trade!

the GV market commentator in hindsight. LOL says the "liar"

you are a ROOKIE Mtl JP when it comes to trading !!!


Israel MacroMicro  16:42:52 GMT - 03/18/2022  
Mtl JP

you are a ROOKIE and fertilizers are my witness !!!


Mtl JP  17:46:15 GMT - 03/18/2022  
 
SnP 4428
stocks appear to like it
-
Two senior Federal Reserve officials on Friday argued the central bank needs to weigh more aggressive increases in U.S. interest rates to contain the biggest outbreak in inflation in 40 years.

Fed Gov. Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should consider one or more half-point increases in a key U.S. interest rate that influences the borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. ...more

Two top Fed officials urge more aggressive interest-rates hikes to stifle inflation



Mtl JP  17:48:07 GMT - 03/18/2022  
or not paying heed to the bullard / waller double barrel


Mtl JP  19:54:29 GMT - 03/18/2022  
us 10-yr 2.144%
us 2-yr 1.949%
-
so far as it should be


Mtl JP  05:19:32 GMT - 03/21/2022  
they estimate
-
* Tight supply continued to worry markets, sparking a call by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday for “emergency measures” to reduce oil usage.

“We estimate that the full implementation of these measures in advanced economies alone can cut oil demand by 2.7 million barrels a day within the next four months, relative to current levels,” the IEA said Friday.

Oil prices jump again on Russia-Ukraine fears, as IEA calls for cut in energy usage



dc CB  05:33:29 GMT - 03/21/2022  
spun another way>>>>>>>
Remember Austerity----for the profligate Greeks...and the rest of those peasant Europeans.....back in the day....That was just a test to see how far it could go before they got..........what's that color that's not purple...a color that starts with a V...yeh
___________________________________
How far can ....before...we get what.....is longed for-----an excuse

Elites Suggest Price Controls, Dystopian Travel Restrictions To 'Manage' Soaring Energy Costs



macao win11  11:16:45 GMT - 03/21/2022  
Crude oil: another dips to $88-89 to finish consolidation?


Israel MacroMicro  11:21:38 GMT - 03/21/2022  
let's finish with the upside as we enter April and nearing May?

$80/$85 is the minimum for the down leg, but remember to use patience.



Mtl JP  13:43:53 GMT - 03/21/2022  
10-yr yield uP and SnP uP = one is wrong


Mtl JP  17:17:48 GMT - 03/21/2022  
alleyooya sherlock
-
Powell says inflation is too high


Mtl JP  17:22:07 GMT - 03/21/2022  
EURO 1.1017
-
PUPPY WILL NEED TO CLOSE SUB 1.10
tame and reverse some of the energy that pushed it to 1.11-ish


Mtl JP  17:29:15 GMT - 03/21/2022  
actually I am a bit surprised that they sent out the chief mushroom feeder
rather than a few more lower grade ones to soften up the players first


Mtl JP  17:36:10 GMT - 03/21/2022  
powell says
-
"Powell says 'story' that inflation would peak in first quarter has 'fallen apart'"

I am cutting jerome some slack here with this reminder from his side-kick:
"Yellen says inflation is ‘likely’ to be 'very uncomfortably high' for another year"


Mtl JP  17:46:13 GMT - 03/21/2022  
oh go home already and crack a cold one
today u have screwed up; regroup there ll be another day
-
"Powell says Fed is not looking at raising its inflation target from 2%"


Mtl JP  21:57:17 GMT - 03/21/2022  
 
10-yr 2.297
here is none other than jeff cox himself pandering, but doing no service, to jerome:
-
Powell says ‘inflation is much too high’ and the Fed will take ‘necessary steps’ to address - Jeff Cox

* Fed Chairman Jerome Powell vowed tough action on inflation, which he said jeopardizes the recovery.

* Powell said the Fed will continue to hike rates until inflation comes under control, and could get even more aggressive than last week’s increase, which was the first in more than three years.

* He noted those rate rises could go from the traditional 25 basis point moves to more aggressive 50 basis point increases if necessary.

and then players laughed out loud (see pic)


Mtl JP  03:54:41 GMT - 03/22/2022  
(AP) US expands travel bans on Chinese officials for persecution

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration on Monday expanded existing U.S. travel bans against Chinese officials whom it accuses of repressing ethnic and religious minorities. ... . ... "The United States rejects efforts by (Chinese) officials to harass, intimidate, surveil, and abduct members of ethnic and religious minority groups, including those who seek safety abroad, and U.S. citizens, who speak out on behalf of these vulnerable populations," Blinken said. "We are committed to defending human rights around the world and will continue to use all diplomatic and economic measures to promote accountability." .../..

BY MATTHEW LEE• ASSOCIATED PRESS • MARCH 21, 2022



Mtl JP  04:35:03 GMT - 03/22/2022  
TIT FOR TAT : retaliation in kind
-
all that is missing for blinken's tit is a tat from xi
plus interest


Mtl JP  16:01:21 GMT - 03/22/2022  
 
DLRx 98.50-ish
-
theory of relative CB interest voraciousness
suggests the red zone in pic is at risk
odds r but no eta
may need ballz, backbone, wallet


Belgrade Knez  16:12:41 GMT - 03/22/2022  
looks like perfect H&S on usdx 15min time frame .... 98.53 seems to be decision level


Mtl JP  17:15:44 GMT - 03/22/2022  
on deck
-
14:00nyt - daly at brookings (that is yellen's old parking and insanely shameless fee-generating spot)

then at
17:00nyt mester yaks (on economic outlook)


Mtl JP  17:20:20 GMT - 03/22/2022  
for perspective a reminder:
-
cnbc 2022 03 10
1 week ago - "Treasury Secretary Yellen said that Americans are likely to see another year of "very uncomfortably high" inflation - now put on your Depends - due to Russia's war in Ukraine."

but ... wtfk is ""very uncomfortably high" inflation" ??



Mtl JP  17:30:33 GMT - 03/22/2022  
who wants to "position-trade" ?
-
"I expect inflation to remain above 2%, but to diminish over the course of the year" - yellen, january 20, 2022

she also said something about households being in good shape at that time


Mtl JP  18:26:15 GMT - 03/22/2022  
smart. smart as a bear
-
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has Covid, will miss Biden trip to Europe - cnbc


Mtl JP  18:29:41 GMT - 03/22/2022  
EURO 1.1023
-
biased down
res 1.1050-ish
sup 1.0950/25ish


Israel MacroMicro  18:32:21 GMT - 03/22/2022  
FED'S DALY: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH

FED'S DALY: YIELD ON 10-YEAR TREASURY IS LOW FOR UNDERSTANDABLE FACTORS, INCLUDING SAFE-HAVEN BUYING

FED'S DALY: MARKETS ALSO DON'T EXPECT RUNAWAY INFLATION


--------------------------------------------------

have a great evening, bye!


Mtl JP  22:37:09 GMT - 03/22/2022  
fresh from optometrist
here is mester about her vision
-
Tue, March 22, 2022

(Reuters) - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester on Tuesday said she would like to raise interest rates to about 2.5% by year end, with bigger rate hikes in the first half, and further tightening next year to bring down high inflation and keep it from getting entrenched.

"I find it appealing to front-load some of the needed increases earlier rather than later in the process because it puts policy in a better position to adjust if the economy evolves differently than expected," Mester said in remarks prepared for delivery at John Carroll University. "If by the middle of the year, inflation is not beginning to moderate, we could speed up our rate increases. But if inflation is moving down faster than expected, we could slow the pace of rate increases in the second half of the year compared to the first half."

sometimes I wonder if these characters are seeing a psychologists to check their hallucinations instead


Mtl JP  23:01:37 GMT - 03/22/2022  
mester is a voter I believe

Views on the Economy and Monetary Policy
03.22.22 Loretta J. Mester
Mellen Executive Speaker Series, John Carroll University, University Heights, OH, March 22, 2022, 5:00 p.m. ET

Views on the Economy and Monetary Policy



macao win11  01:20:21 GMT - 03/23/2022  
Why not remove import taxes?


Mtl JP  10:13:17 GMT - 03/23/2022  
 
"10-year Treasury yield falls slightly but holds above 2.37%" cnbc
players weighing/discounting FED gang's re-iterations of potentially more inflation-fighting aggression
-
yield uP - USD uP (eurdlr down) - "risk" sitting on top of S

worry, stress and opportunity time


Mtl JP  10:28:52 GMT - 03/23/2022  
anecdote
-
"Quebec budget 2022: $500 payment for 6.4 million Quebecers to offset inflation. The spike in the cost of living “is exceptional, so the compensation is exceptional,” Finance Minister Eric Girard said Tuesday." (hooray, hiphiphip) - quebec province govt
BANG ! - ie. govt inflows $3,2billion into the economy to 6,4 million Québécois (90+%), less than seven months before a scheduled Oct. 3 provincial election.

hahahaha! let me count the ways in which this is soooooooo wrong, but - maybe - politically astute


Mtl JP  10:37:19 GMT - 03/23/2022  
why is the gov'ts treasury deficit down 50% from last projections?

INFLATION, that is why. govt tax-rates on everything (2x4, plywood, gas, etc etc) in the economy stayed about the same BUT on a higher ticket their cash register is just raking it in. long live INFLATION ! kitching.

and that is how govt bamboozles peasants with their own sh!t.
brilliant


Mtl JP  14:03:09 GMT - 03/23/2022  
 
DLRx 98.85
euro 1.0965
-
FED gang slowly getting players to come to
the idea of aggressive inflation fight i.e to the idea of 50ptrs - maybe -coming up

imo still bit of propaganda work on players yet left to do, see pic


Mtl JP  14:13:42 GMT - 03/23/2022  
still on deck
-
11:45 - daly yaks
15:00 - bullard (on econ outlook)
21:05 - bullard (on econ outlook) again
nyt


Israel MacroMicro  14:19:06 GMT - 03/23/2022  
______________________________________
15:00 - bullard (on econ outlook)

21:05 - bullard (on econ outlook) again
______________________________________

as the year is 2022, it would be zero surprise that the same person will say opposite opinions about the same issue within 6hrs !

:)


Mtl JP  14:21:48 GMT - 03/23/2022  
 
"risk" rascals feeling friski
playful ahead of FED mushroom farmers


Israel MacroMicro  14:25:15 GMT - 03/23/2022  
ES 4535/55 area and wise politician may say something that buyers will halt their operations, still today? overnight? tomorrow?


Mtl JP  14:40:13 GMT - 03/23/2022  
EURO 1.0983ish
-
ambivalently unbiased atm
but IF I have to chose: down while sub 1.10
Sup 1.0960 (obvious to everyone), 50 and 25 below that


Mtl JP  15:39:41 GMT - 03/23/2022  
some names
on "owning" vs "control"
-
"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will talk to Sens. Angus King, I-Maine; John Cornyn, R-Texas; Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn.; and Maggie Hassan, D-N.H. later this week to discuss the move, sources familiar with the meeting told the outlet." .../..

Senators, Yellen to Discuss Freezing Russia's Gold Assets



Mtl JP  16:16:20 GMT - 03/23/2022  
Daly says
-
‘everything on table’ in May, including 50 basis point hike and shrinking balance sheet


Mtl JP  16:33:04 GMT - 03/23/2022  
EURO 1.1003
-
odds of puppy going after 1.1050-ish post daly ?


Mtl JP  17:09:23 GMT - 03/23/2022  
 
darn
-
FED gangs screamings aggressive hikes a-coming
just not getting much traction


Mtl JP  17:20:46 GMT - 03/23/2022  
FED screamings mostly priced in


Mtl JP  17:26:08 GMT - 03/23/2022  
US10Y: 2.339%, down-0.038
-
tame and lame.
missing a zero (before the decimal)


Mtl JP  17:47:02 GMT - 03/23/2022  
 
ok ok I take credit for this one however tiny
can hold your applause


Mtl JP  17:49:40 GMT - 03/23/2022  
still missing a zero:
-
"10-year Treasury yield touches new multiyear high above 2.41%"


Mtl JP  02:08:07 GMT - 03/24/2022  
Gold 1941
maybe zelensky's army is just about POOF!ed ( (why?) does murrika really care about ukraine?)

or maybe, and more probably,

the bidenpuppet instrument-pulling democrats are so desperate about prospects of not just not remaining in power but about their own survival that they ll make "war to save zelensky's ukraine democracy" to prevent an election:

* Three pressing threats loom large over the summit, requiring the alliance to figure out its response and whether military intervention would be needed.

* That includes mistaken fire on an allied nation, cyber attacks on a NATO member state and the possibility of chemical or biological warfare within Ukraine.

* NATO leaders are also expected to announce more humanitarian aid to Ukraine, particularly the embattled port city of Mariupol, a fresh round of sanctions and new pressure on Moscow’s energy sector.

Biden brings more troops and sanctions to NATO amid rising fears of Russian chemical warfare



Mtl JP  02:16:30 GMT - 03/24/2022  
POOF ! goes
-
Madelaine "half a million dead children worth it" Albright 84
onto garbage heap of history


PGH TB  07:16:16 GMT - 03/24/2022  
What does any of this have to do with buying or selling currencies to make profit? You guys yak yak yak for what? To hear yourselves talk?


Mtl JP  10:21:38 GMT - 03/24/2022  
PGH TB 07:16 - maybe start making contingency plans for managing trades IF events take turn towards taking out satellites, undersea cables and /or main infrastructures and your computer / cell phone go dark (ie "widespread and severe consequences")

care to share your ideas ?
tia


Minneapolis DRS2  10:52:12 GMT - 03/24/2022  
Mtl JP 10:21 GMT 03/24/2022

I would think that if enough infrastructure is taken out, then we won't be managing any trades. (Stuff will just go bidless, prices will be nonsensical or more likely nonexistent, and liquidity will be limited to what the local broker has on hand...almost nothing.)

The modern trading world requires ongoing electronic access between counterparties to remain functional.


GVI Forex 11:52:15 GMT - 03/24/2022  
The brief air pocket down in eurusd was in a headline that US and NATO are preparing for the risk of a Russian nuclear incident.

Subsequent bounce so far capped at 1.10


GVI Forex 15:45:42 GMT - 03/24/2022  
Equities getting al ift and fx reacting but less so to

Ukraine President Zelinsky's chief of staff says there was progress in the h Russia and expressed "careful optimism" accorrding to Axios

Newsquawk.com



Mtl JP  23:25:04 GMT - 03/24/2022  
all that is missing is GS calling for nobel economico/political peace prize to putin:
-
RBC Capital markets and Goldman Sachs giving hints how to get the FED off the blame-hook for causing recession:

"It is not unfathomable for prices to rocket to $200 a barrel by summer, spur a recession and end the year closer to $50 a barrel ($200 call options have been bid). To be clear, this is not our base case, but such a scenario does not sound implausible today," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Tran" .../.

"Oil prices surging to $200 a barrel could send the economy into recession: Goldman Sachs"

"Oil prices surging to $200 a barrel could send the economy into recession: Goldman Sachs"



dc CB  00:48:56 GMT - 03/25/2022  
'watch the 5vs'

next ?



Mtl JP  10:01:55 GMT - 03/25/2022  
DLRx 98.67
looks like the FED with its screamings of "front-loading" with potential 50pt hikes (by a full percentage point by July) to "combat inflation" is a joke to players
-
Gasoline prices are hitting $6 in some parts of the country and summer driving season isn’t here yet - Patti Domm, cnbc
"Drivers watching gas prices rise and fall at their local stations are seeing first hand the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the highly volatile global oil market."

Bloomberg
Biden Says to Expect ‘Real’ Food Shortages Due to Ukraine War
President Joe Biden said that the world will experience food shortages as a result of .../ (anything and anybody but me)


GVI Forex 13:28:18 GMT - 03/25/2022  
US yields spiking higher =>


Mtl JP  14:03:58 GMT - 03/25/2022  
EURO 1.1015-ish
-
flailing around 1.10, 1.11 a bridge too far
below 1.10 on the week = more down

Res 1.1050/70
Sp 1.10/1.0960-ish, 50 & 25


Mtl JP  14:24:52 GMT - 03/25/2022  
10-yr 2.453%
2-yr 2.251%
-
still missing that zero

3-month at 0.533%


Mtl JP  14:48:37 GMT - 03/25/2022  
 
making players giggle:
-
"Fed's Williams says impact of Ukraine war, COVID-19 highly uncertain"

one more mushroom feeder at
11:30 barkin -- on "containing inflation"




Mtl JP  15:05:30 GMT - 03/25/2022  
paroles
-
BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany’s economy ministry wants to halve the country’s dependence on Russian oil by the summer and have no Russian hard coal imports by the autumn, Der Spiegel magazine said on Friday

and off russian natgas in two years


PAR 15:20:13 GMT - 03/25/2022  
KBC

• Europe’s aspiration to cut reliance on Russian fossil energy by two-thirds end 2022 and almost completely by 2024 became a little bit more concrete today. The continent announced an agreement with the US under which Europe will receive at least 15 billion cubic meters of additional LNG supplies. That amount may go up to 50bn by 2025, when new projects are scheduled to come online, until at least 2030. For now, the extra 15bn would only replace Russian LNG flows though while the country also ships about 150bn cubic meters of gas to Europe every year. The decision is thus politically symbolic more than something else. Yet, oil and gas prices do decline. Brent eases 2% to $117/b, Dutch gas futures lose 6% to €106/MWh. European stock markets are in slightly better shape today. They erased opening losses to trade about 0.8% higher. US stocks trade 0.6% higher with the Nasdaq underperforming (flat) after US/core bond yields suddenly spiked higher. Press agency Interfax reported the Russian “forces will focus on the main thing – the complete liberation of Donbas”. Markets took it as a hint Russia may be backing away from taking over other pieces of Ukraine. Such de-escalation of the conflict may ultimately result in a less cloudy economic outlook, allowing central banks to move ahead with normalization without looking back. US money markets all but price in 200 bps additional tightening by year-end. This would align with two 50 bps hikes in May and June, followed by four regular 25 bps hikes at each of the remaining policy meeting. US yields add 9 to 14 bps in a bear flattener. The report also sharpened ECB expectations, though less intense. European swap yields add 4-5 bps across the curve. A first full hike is priced in for September with a second one discounted for December.


Belgrade Knez  15:43:00 GMT - 03/25/2022  
Europe spends 500 billion cubic meters per year and US total production of LNG per year is 80 billion cubic meters!
Even if US gives ALL their production to Europe it's only 16% of what Europe needs.
So I really don't understand how does US gas can help Europe?


Belgrade Knez  15:50:38 GMT - 03/25/2022  
Also American gas is more expensive and production is not environmentally friendly!
I wonder how the Green Party, which is part of the government in Germany, will approve it!?
Looks like they are ready to f.ck up enviroment just to get rid of Russian gas.


Israel MacroMicro  15:51:48 GMT - 03/25/2022  
Knez

who needs MATH when you have AT available @ $149.95 per month. stop bothering people with facts, STOP !!!

have a great w/e too :)


london red  15:55:04 GMT - 03/25/2022  
knez us lng is about 8 times cheaper. also yearly gas usage is around 400bcn. russia provides about 40/45% of that. the rest norway, qatar (together 20-25%) as the biggest providers. domestic is about 10%. its question of doing it in stages. norway can increase a bit as can the states. but bigger increases will take time but they will happen. not overnight but the wheels have started to move, even if slowly.


Belgrade Knez  16:01:29 GMT - 03/25/2022  
london red
everywhere I read and heard from experts on TV is that US gas is more expensive and production not enviromentally friendly.
I understand it will take time to replace it, but by the time they do, this war will be well over and then Europe going to realize that is still cheaper and better to use Russiaqn gas, so they will never really get rid of Russian gas, just maybe instead of 45% importing from Russia take it down to 25%. Also, Balkan and middle Europe is much more convenient to use Russian gas as all pipes are already build and connected.


Israel MacroMicro  16:07:09 GMT - 03/25/2022  
Belgrade Knez 16:01 GMT March 25, 2022

recycle the pipes, recycle ♻ !!!

when was the last time politicians moved on time and made humanity to avoid a problem and not to suffer from a bigger problem?


london red  16:32:48 GMT - 03/25/2022  
knez, its a gamechanger, they will not go back to how things were. and no i dont care what everyone says, us lng is cheaper even after all of the ancillary and shipping costs. also us gas cleaner than russian. a win for the tree huggers.


Mtl JP  16:37:59 GMT - 03/25/2022  
this is painful
-
(Bloomberg) "A Powell-Backed Yield Curve Gives Fed Cover to Go Max Hawkish"
(earlier bullard has let it slip rate to 3% this yr)


Belgrade Knez  16:41:21 GMT - 03/25/2022  
london red
I can't argue about the cost as that is only what I heard and read, but I don't understand you saying that US liquid gas is cleaner than natural gas! It doesn't make any sense.


london red  16:55:02 GMT - 03/25/2022  
esg is unheard of in russia. take any emissions figures they provide and double them. in the states you have the tree huggers crawling all over o&g projects night and day ensuring greenhouse gas emissions kept to a minimum. also this gas will mean about 60% less emissions than by using russian based coal, which is still a big input in power production in the eu. but the problem is the biden administration stuck between a rock and a hrad place given their green credentials and not the need to stick it to the russians by weaning eu off ruskie gas.


Mtl JP  18:17:01 GMT - 03/25/2022  
can I see clearly already ?
more importantly: what about the market:
-
Reuters
Fed's Williams open to bigger rate hike if high inflation persists
(Reuters) -The U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates more aggressively to tackle high inflation, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday, becoming the latest policymaker to open the door to a bigger rate hike in May. Asked if he would support a half-percentage-point rise in the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate at a May 3-4 policy meeting, Williams said the central bank will be guided by economic data between now and then. "What the right decision is at any given movement will depend on the situation then, but the simple answer to your question is if it's appropriate to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a meeting, then I think we should do that," Williams told a conference organized by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and Bank for International Settlements.
2h ago

MarketWatch
Fed’s Williams open, in general, to 50 basis point rate hikes, but won’t discuss next meeting in May
New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that he could support a 50 basis point rate hike in theory if appropriate, but wouldn't talk about May meeting.
1h ago


Mtl JP  18:33:41 GMT - 03/25/2022  
U.S. Treasurys market plagued with illiquidity as government bonds head for worst week in years

headline by

Vivien Lou Chen



dc CB  19:25:05 GMT - 03/25/2022  
 
dc CB 00:48 GMT 03/25/2022
'watch the 5vs'

at the cash close:
5y -- 2.573
10y -- 2.492
30y -- 2.603

cheers


dc CB  20:00:48 GMT - 03/25/2022  
nat gas for Bitcoin mining.

The largest U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil is considering expanding its North Dakota bitcoin mining pilot program to further reduce the volume of natural gas it routinely burns off or flares into the atmosphere, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

People familiar with the matter told the news outlet that the oil giant has an agreement with Crusoe Energy Systems to redirect gas that would otherwise be wasted from an oil well pad to mobile bitcoin mines. The report said the pilot project launched in January 2021 in North Dakota’s Bakken and expanded in July; now, it consumes up to 18 million cubic feet of gas per month that Exxon couldn’t otherwise monetize.

Exxon is now considering similar pilot projects in Alaska, the Qua Iboe Terminal in Nigeria, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale field, Guyana and Germany, one of the people told Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-24/exxon-considers-taking-gas-to-bitcoin-pilot-to-four-countries


Mtl JP  09:56:35 GMT - 03/28/2022  
DLRx 99.13
-------------
Inspiration:
Biden job approval rating hits lowest point of presidency, most think U.S. headed in wrong direction - cnbc

Sentiment
- The yield on the 5-year Treasury note rose 5 basis points to 2.6309% at 5:05 a.m. ET, while the 30-year yield was down less than 1 basis point to 2.5956%.

- This is the first time the shorter-dated Treasury yield has risen above that of the longer-dated U.S. government bond since 2006.

5-year and 30-year Treasury yields invert for the first time since 2006, fueling recession fears



Mtl JP  14:12:41 GMT - 03/28/2022  
 
DLRx 99.310
puppy on the run uP as players appear to finally come around to the idea of FED's "guidance" re its seriousness about being aggressive with rates. (10yr HoD 2.557%)

I am thinking yields is the theme of the week (till friday's NFP)


Mtl JP  15:55:09 GMT - 03/29/2022  
 
US 10-YR: 2.416% -0.061
"Treasury yields decline with jobs data, Russia-Ukraine negotiations in focus"

Bloomberg (out earlier today)
Traders Irked by Fed Rake-Hike Wagers Are Already Eyeing Cuts
James Hirai, Tue, March 29, 2022


Mtl JP  15:58:27 GMT - 03/29/2022  
Bloomberg
Fed’s Harker Says He Is Looking For ‘Methodical’ Hikes This Year

good good ... “I’m also worried that inflation expectations could become unmoored,” - harker


Mtl JP  16:21:42 GMT - 03/29/2022  
 
EURGBP 0.8466
-
odds of a successful posi-pip sell here ?
tia


Mtl JP  18:39:52 GMT - 03/29/2022  
catch me IF you can
here is one dummy:
-
..."she was able to authorize equipment purchases without additional approvals as long as the orders were below $10,000"...

Former Yale administrator stole $40 million, pretending to buy computer equipment for the university. Instead, she bought a fleet of luxury cars, and three houses



dc CB  20:02:18 GMT - 03/29/2022  
As Quarter end approaches interesting what is getting dumped and what is getting bought.

Grains, soybeans, gold, silver, USD.

Stock, Bonds


dc CB  20:18:19 GMT - 03/29/2022  
It looks like the analytical geniuses over at the San Francisco Fed have finally figured out something that Larry Summers anticipated nearly a year ago: When you pump trillions of dollars of stimulus spending into the economy, it causes inflation to overheat to the highest level in a generation.

FED Finally Admits That COVID Stimulus Is Responsible For Hottest Inflation In A Generation



Mtl JP  23:10:56 GMT - 03/29/2022  
dc CB it is my bet that "they" fully get what causes "inflation"
BoC calls inflation "Inflation is a persistent rise in the average level of prices over time" (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/08/understanding-inflation/)

Here is our fearless leader of BoC (another mushroom farmer extra-ordinair) claiming that "Moving forward, Canadians can be confident that we will continue to act to deliver on our mandate.”

"Getting inflation back to target"



dc CB  23:56:04 GMT - 03/29/2022  
A reporter asked Cecilia Rouse, the chair of President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, about the White House's plan to deal with food shortages when it comes to wheat.

Rouse said, "well, first we are a net exporter of many food commodities, and farmers respond to price signals, and so with the price of food rising, they will be responding by making additional plantings and try to take advantage of increase pricing."

She added: "The market will work as the market will work."

Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse is asked how the White House is planning on dealing with food shortages. pic.twitter.com/MpJUghx63R

________________________________________
we'll see!

Thurs March 31---USDA announces Planting Intentions....
12:00 pm Grain Stocks NASS
12:00 pm Prospective Plantings NASS
https://www.usda.gov/media/agency-reports

Clip---



Mtl JP  09:29:59 GMT - 03/30/2022  
new potential profit opp
-
Germany warns of possible natural gas rationing amid dispute with Russia - cnbc

wanna drive a german vehicle - buy two: one to use the other for spare parts


Mtl JP  13:42:50 GMT - 03/30/2022  
 
DLRx 97.87
-
puppy on the down ...
why ... maybe flattening / inverting curve taming correcting FED's mistake of aggression


Mtl JP  13:51:40 GMT - 03/30/2022  
EURDLR 1.1154
-
RE-challenging overnite's 1.1160-65 Res,
50day above that, 85 and 00 above that


Mtl JP  14:10:36 GMT - 03/30/2022  
DLRCAD 1.2444
inflation, expectation and importance there-of
theory according to experts at BoC ("We are Canada's central bank. We work to preserve the value of money by keeping inflation low and stable.") :
The Importance of Inflation Expectations for Monetary Policy
-
Reuters March 30, 2022
Dollarama to sell products priced up to C$5 to shore up margins
Canada's Dollarama Inc said on Wednesday it would roll out additional price points up to C$5 this year, as the discount retailer, which typically sells everything from kitchen essentials to party supplies under C$4, looks to shield its margins from heightened inflation. .../..

de-anchoring inflation would normally make "authority" spring to action


Mtl JP  15:48:51 GMT - 03/30/2022  
DLRx 97.81
-
the next Q
get the A right and u ll get rich(er)


Mtl JP  15:49:45 GMT - 03/30/2022  
 
forgot the DLRx pic


Mtl JP  16:19:06 GMT - 03/30/2022  
Barkin says -
more businesses are having easy time passing their higher costs to consumers, and that
it remains to be seen how high the Federal Reserve will need to raise its benchmark policy interest rate to get inflation under control

By Greg Robb



Mtl JP  16:20:13 GMT - 03/30/2022  
george yaks next
at top of hour at Econ Club of NY


PAR  16:49:39 GMT - 03/30/2022  
Looks like US stocks will have another super strong close. Nothing but good news.


Mtl JP  17:59:07 GMT - 03/30/2022  
 
snp looking a bit tilty


Mtl JP  18:02:18 GMT - 03/30/2022  
"The $9 trillion balance sheet will need to decline significantly, Kansas City Fed president says"

George says -
The Federal Reserve must more swiftly away from its current monetary policy stance that is as easy as it has ever been at a time when inflation is well above the Fed’s target and labor markets are tight, said Kansas City Fed President Esther George, on Wednesday.

“Given the state of the economy, with inflation at a 40-year high and the unemployment rate near record lows, moving expeditiously to a neutral stance of policy is appropriate,” George

Fed’s George: Must move ‘expeditiously’ away from easy policy stance



Mtl JP  18:09:37 GMT - 03/30/2022  
oh how things have changed from the days of Harry Longbough aka The Sundance Kid:
-
"Crypto Thieves Strike as Currencies Move Into Mainstream

Regulation around cryptocurrencies was back in focus Wednesday after hackers stole around $600 million in one of the world’s biggest ever crypto heists.

The security breach comes as governments grapple with implementing new regulatory regimes for crypto" .../..

still want to deal with crypto ?


Mtl JP  18:32:13 GMT - 03/30/2022  
Is or should vlad be worried // how should/will he repay the gesture ?
are the puppies hack-able ?
-
* The U.S. included 100 killer drones called Switchblades in an arms package to Ukraine.

* Ukraine requested the equipment as it fights off a Russian invasion.

* President Joe Biden approved a massive defense aid package earlier this month.

U.S. sends 100 killer drones called Switchblades to Ukraine



GVI Forex 18:42:59 GMT - 03/30/2022  
Reminder: Tomorrow is month/quarter end.


Israel MacroMicro  18:53:40 GMT - 03/30/2022  


Israel MacroMicro  18:54:04 GMT - 03/30/2022  
GVI Forex 18:42 GMT March 30, 2022

based on?


dc CB  20:09:36 GMT - 03/30/2022  
thurs in the US

Fund re-balance---esp Pension funds who Must---in the charter--So they gotta Sell Stox and Buy Bonds.

Then at Noon NY time, the USDA releases Planting Intentions for the US and Quarterly Grain Stocks.


Mtl JP  22:09:58 GMT - 03/30/2022  
 
wanna take a flyer on what or who players consider
the biggest threat to markets ?
(hint: it is not vlad's nukes)

IF you have to scratch the itch:

CNBC survey of what investors believe the biggest threat to the markets now



Mtl JP  22:28:46 GMT - 03/30/2022  
what an embarrassing humiliation of the german
instead of giving NATO the once-and-for-all boot:
-
30/03/2022 -PRESS RELEASE -Energy

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action announces early warning level of the Emergency Plan for Gas – security of supply still ensured

© 2022 FEDERAL MINISTRY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND CLIMATE ACTION



Mtl JP  09:28:36 GMT - 03/31/2022  
DLRx 98,14
-
players seeing the FED as biggest threat
I think the cnbc survey was mis-worded when they used "threat" instead of "opportunity"


Israel MacroMicro  09:37:26 GMT - 03/31/2022  
coming Wednesday is FOMC minutes


Israel MacroMicro  09:38:52 GMT - 03/31/2022  
in rumors and headlines price action market FOMC yak-yak is a promise for volatility. FOMC minutes is epic of yak-yak.


Mtl JP  13:37:41 GMT - 03/31/2022  
 
SnP 4588
-
puko-discounting the future

DLRx at 98.30 (vs earlier 97.80) boosting the DLR
stocks do not like higher dollar


Mtl JP  13:45:19 GMT - 03/31/2022  
EURDLR 1.1089
-
bear and bear
i.e little to no bid after early overnite attempt higher (to the 50-day) and then london pulling the rug

current S around 1.1070/50, Res 1.1115/80



Mtl JP  17:30:06 GMT - 03/31/2022  
thinking ahead
euro 1.1089
-
puppy's recent run uP could be attributed to some players thinking the ECB
would ape the FED with some hawk quacking and whinings about inflation.

EU pumps out some CPI stuff tomorrow.
Odds are nil for april hike.
Odds are practically nil for a run of some number of hikes this year.

Bottom Line
some relative CB policy plays coming up.
theme keyword: unwind


Mtl JP  17:45:42 GMT - 03/31/2022  
about the survey of biggest market risk
similar to the FED gang with its hawk/dove theatrics:
-
The biggest risk to the market depends on who you ask: Morning Brief
here is

Brian Cheung·Reporter



dc CB  19:45:50 GMT - 03/31/2022  
dc CB 20:09 GMT 03/30/2022
thurs in the US
Fund re-balance---they gotta Sell Stox and Buy Bonds.

--- USDA releases Planting Intentions for the US and Quarterly Grain Stocks

Dec Corn--UP 27
Nov Soybeans - DN 49
July Wheat - DN 21

ready for April Fools day?


dc CB  20:05:40 GMT - 03/31/2022  
Q1 was unreal... Zero Hedge:

Global Bonds - worst drawdown ever
US Bonds - 3rd worst Q1 since the Civil Wa
US Yield Curve - greatest Q1 flattening ever
Commodities - best start to a year ever
Oil - best start to a year since 1999
Regular Gasoline (at-the-pump) - fastest rise ever to record highs
US Stocks - 3rd biggest short-squeeze rebound in March since Lehman after worst start to a year for stocks since 2009 (2nd worst in over 30 years)
Ruble - stronger against the dollar in March after ugly Jan/Feb


dc CB  06:10:57 GMT - 04/01/2022  
early futures

back to selling Bonds
Still selling grains/soybeans/soybean oil


Mtl JP  10:43:14 GMT - 04/01/2022  
 
"risk" on the uP
"Stock futures rise as investors assess start of new quarter, jobs report ahead"
-
.. "the Fed is expected to proceed with its interest rate hike in May" ..

The hot jobs market could mean big gains for March payrolls and wages - Patti Domm



GVI Forex 12:36:12 GMT - 04/01/2022  
Yield curve flirting with inversion 2 vs 10 post data


dc CB  13:34:59 GMT - 04/01/2022  
dc CB 19:45 GMT 03/31/2022
dc CB 20:09 GMT 03/30/2022
thurs in the US
Fund re-balance---they gotta Sell Stox and Buy Bonds.
____________________________________________

did anyone: Watch the 5y???
did anyone: sell Bonds into yesterday's forced rally?

5Y futures are currently 1 full point below yest Hi tick.....114'27
now 113'27


Mtl JP  13:36:20 GMT - 04/01/2022  
 
DLRx 98.65
odds r puppy s heading for 99.40 test ahead of 100
-
..."Average hourly earnings, a closely watched inflation metric, increased 0.4% on the month, in line with expectations. On a 12-month basis, pay increased nearly 5.6%, just above the estimate."...

"To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve is planning a series of interest rate hikes that further would slow growth.

Markets now are anticipating rate increases at each of the six remaining Fed meetings this year, likely starting with a half-percentage-point move in May and continuing to total 2.5 percentage points before 2022 comes to a close.

There was little in Friday’s report that would alter that outlook."
according to

Jeff Cox



dc CB  13:38:18 GMT - 04/01/2022  
*U.S. 3- AND 5-YEAR NOTE YIELDS RISE MORE THAN 10 BASIS POINTS


NY JM  13:44:55 GMT - 04/01/2022  
When you fall behind the curve you have to tighten more than otherwise would be the case. This is the box the Fed finds itself in.


Mtl JP  13:46:43 GMT - 04/01/2022  
EURO 1.1041-ish
"vessel of love"
-
Bias: wish-washi atm
S 1.1030/00/1.0990
Res 1.1075/00


Mtl JP  14:03:38 GMT - 04/01/2022  
JM .."fall behind the curve"
-
imagine: what would players be gaming IF they did not have the continuous stream of f..ckups by the approx 23,000 PhD'd collective that is

The Federal Reserve System



Mtl JP  14:16:56 GMT - 04/01/2022  
BoC CB f.ckup anxiety-causing anecdote
-
with housing prices flaming some folks are going thru up to 50 psychologists (who are as rare as pope's turd apparently) as they eyeball 2%-worth of difference between 5-yr variable and fixed mortgage


Mtl JP  14:22:59 GMT - 04/01/2022  
 

risk not liking jeff's report ?


Mtl JP  14:26:26 GMT - 04/01/2022  
 
PIC
-
how does a DLR-bid look


dc CB  14:44:29 GMT - 04/01/2022  
*U.S. 5- TO 30-YEAR CURVE INVERSION DEEPENS TO 8.8 BASIS POINTS


Mtl JP  15:05:26 GMT - 04/01/2022  
good reason for the FED turkeys to be running out to stockup (if not hoard) on aspirin as
-
FRANKFURT, March 30 (Reuters) - Germany's BASF BASFn.DE said on Wednesday it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch.

Ludwig Burger Reuters



Mtl JP  15:14:01 GMT - 04/01/2022  
below post in ref to CB 14:44


Mtl JP  15:31:36 GMT - 04/01/2022  
should - should or not exist ?
-
01-Apr-2022 // China has accused the United States of instigating the conflict in Ukraine, said Zhao Lijian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, at a press conference in Beijing on Friday. Also, he mentioned that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should have been disbanded as a product of the cold war.

MOFA: China urges NATO to reflect on its role in the Ukraine crisis



Mtl JP  16:06:38 GMT - 04/01/2022  
 
.. all of a sudden ..
the deer jumped on the road
-
“I don’t have any reason to appreciate why the most recent March SEP dot chart has become stale all of a sudden,” Evans

Fed’s Evans backs path of steady quarter-point rate hikes



Mtl JP  17:11:36 GMT - 04/01/2022  
putin putin putin
someone please help paul:
-
Will Putin Kill the Global Economy?

PAUL KRUGMAN Will Putin Kill the Global Economy?



Varna 19:20:12 GMT - 04/01/2022  
Kill the global economy? No way!


Varna 19:21:58 GMT - 04/01/2022  
And Chine is a bit right this time.


Varna 19:23:33 GMT - 04/01/2022  
Such a steady plans in not steady times at all... We`ll see.


Varna 19:24:46 GMT - 04/01/2022  
Look like an upward channel to me.


Varna 19:26:35 GMT - 04/01/2022  
Let's see in which direction it will break this consolidation.


Mtl JP  22:47:39 GMT - 04/01/2022  
probably for a substantial raise
hopefully she ll improve her level of comedy
-
April 1, 2022 New York (CNN Business) White House press secretary Jen Psaki plans on departing the Biden administration in the coming weeks and heading to MSNBC, two people familiar with the matter told CNN on Friday.

Press secretary Jen Psaki plans to depart White House for MSNBC in coming weeks



dc CB  00:36:11 GMT - 04/02/2022  
Press secretary Jen Psaki plans to depart White House for MSNBC in coming weeks

Jimi Hendrix Recorded His Debut Single "Hey Joe" 55 years ago.

Does Jen Psaki know who Jimi Hendrix is/was.

Jen sure got a career boost from---Hey Joe, where you goin' with that gun in your hand...

Archive



Mtl JP  12:55:26 GMT - 04/03/2022  
Let The Fun Begin
The Spanking:
-
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
How late is the #Fed? Very:
Having misunderstood the inflation dynamic, it eroded its credibility
Having missed a wide-open window last year to adjust policies when economic growth was on an upswing, it no longer has good policy options
It has lost control of its policy narrative
9:51 AM · Apr 2, 2022

Mohamed A. El-Erian



Mtl JP  15:01:01 GMT - 04/03/2022  
 
DLRx 98.52
some potentially tradable ideas but not that they are anything new
from same cnn author as in 20:23 link as she asks
-
Is the US dollar in danger?

Nicole Goodkind



GVI Forex 09:52:21 GMT - 04/04/2022  
EURUSD softer today - look at divergence US (up) vs German (lower) 2 year yields.


Mtl JP  14:35:41 GMT - 04/04/2022  
EURO 1.0982
-
as long as puppy frolics under 1.10
1.09 (and lower) is on radar


Mtl JP  13:43:59 GMT - 04/05/2022  
 
SnP 4975.50
-
just made the mistake of having a look at cnbc:
"Stocks dip as investors monitor recession odds, await clarity from Fed"


GVI Forex 13:44:02 GMT - 04/05/2022  
Check out a heat map and it will tell you where the flows are going. USD is caught in the middle.


Mtl JP  14:39:55 GMT - 04/05/2022  
EURO 1.0937
-
while under 1.10
puppy is looking down

Res 1.0990/00, 1.1050ish
Sup 1.0925/00 ahead of 1.08


Mtl JP  15:31:20 GMT - 04/05/2022  
 
DLRx 99.25
-
ying yanging (with) the FED


Mtl JP  09:59:18 GMT - 04/06/2022  
yoohoo ... overhere ... yoohooo
managers of market expectations de-anchorings
(horses out of the barn)
look here, yoohoo:
-
"An increasing number of Wall Street experts are now forecasting a possible economic downturn on the horizon, with alarms growing louder after the widely-observed yield curve inverted last week and indicated a looming recession."

Major Bank Is First To Forecast A Recession—More Could Follow -- Sergei Klebnikov, Forbes Staff



Mtl JP  10:36:11 GMT - 04/06/2022  
spook, spoocked and spookie
who is spooking who
here is jeff cox carrying water for the FED:
-
* Fed Governor Lael Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly spoke Tuesday, emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation through higher interest rates.

* “It is of paramount importance to get inflation down,” Brainard said.

* Raising rates “is what is necessary to ensure that again, [you] go to bed at night, you’re not worrying about whether prices will be higher, considerably higher tomorrow,” Daly added.

Key people from the Fed just spooked the markets — here’s what they said



Mtl JP  10:41:53 GMT - 04/06/2022  
US 10-YR 2.652%
-
still missing my famous zero (before the decimal)


Israel MacroMicro  11:07:26 GMT - 04/06/2022  
what if those selling now JPY to enjoy higher yields than years ago, going to use the bonds as collateral to long US equity indices?

such, would trigger sellers or we are still in the same old world?

the current price action suggests that US equity indices moving to upside to cause loads of pain to shorter time traders/investors, but this business is not about pain, right?

just wondering :)


Mtl JP  14:09:41 GMT - 04/06/2022  
EURO/usd 1.0910
-
The comedy of CB policy relativity continues with
"dove" brainard pivot to "he-hawk-yak" all the while no ECB
suit coming out swinging similarly with exception of lane spewing
that inflation will peak soon.

Bottom Line
odds of more moRE euro DOwn are sofar good
not so much of some econ fundamentals as much as dlr support via "policymaker" yak


Mtl JP  15:34:16 GMT - 04/06/2022  
for the record (out earlier):
-
Harker (voter) says
- Fed’s rate hikes, balance sheet unwind won’t be ‘so aggressive’ as to risk recession

Is the FED really so screwed ?
-
Bill Dudley
April 6, 2022, 10:00 AM UTC
It’s hard to know how much the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control. But one thing is certain: To be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.

(Bloomberg Opinion) If Stocks Don’t Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them. Tightening financial conditions will be key to getting inflation under control.



Mtl JP  16:02:05 GMT - 04/06/2022  
 
things must be bad at jerome-led FED as
dudley makes me think jerome is
a mushroom in need of a feeding ... in public !
-
"Investors should listen to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Dudley said, who has clearly stated that financial conditions must tighten. If this doesn’t happen on its own (which seems unlikely), the Fed will have to shock the market to achieve the desired reponse,” That would mean hiking rates much higher than market participants currently anticipate because the Fed, “one way or another, to get inflation under control…will need to push bond yields higher and stock prices lower.” - Dudley


Mtl JP  16:23:08 GMT - 04/06/2022  
yay / nay
-
who wants to dissect "Tightening financial conditions will be key to getting inflation under control" effectiveness ?


Mtl JP  16:41:51 GMT - 04/06/2022  
 
altho somewhat uP and
gently breaking out of recent range,
no rush atm
-
dlr puppy likely needs to dry up liquidity more moRE in order to fly higher and tilt if not outright make stocks puke


Mtl JP  17:07:40 GMT - 04/06/2022  
 
Agustín Carstens - General Manager, Bank for International Settlements
says:
-
"It seems clear that policy rates need to rise to levels that are more appropriate for the higherinflation environment. Most likely, this will require real interest rates to rise above neutral levels for a time in order to moderate demand." (p.13/14 pdf)

BIS speech - 05 April 2022
The return of inflation



PAR 17:33:18 GMT - 04/06/2022  
It would be helpful if the BIS economists called Christine Lagarde and explain her how higher interest rates can lower inflation.

Lagarde seems not to understand basic economic principles.
She seems to be serving dark forces. She wants to destroy Europe?


Mtl JP  17:49:28 GMT - 04/06/2022  
destroy Europe ?
-
viies 10:19 linked to medvedev's revealing vlad's plan.
would "an open Eurasia, from Lisbon to Vladivostok" be bad / good for the general good of peasants and their ruling elites ?


london red  18:44:51 GMT - 04/06/2022  
from what i see of russian organisation in ukraine, putin i suspect would have issues taking out a big mac meal from macdonalds nevermind a nato state.


dc CB  19:17:48 GMT - 04/06/2022  
WmBanzai 7

EU v Russia



Mtl JP  22:41:16 GMT - 04/06/2022  
c'mon greta ... throw a fit:
Steven Guilbeault is formely co-founder of nearly terrorist climate action group called Équiterre. This turkey has scaled, in the past Toronto's CN tower in protesting for "action towards the necessary ecological transition"
-
OTTAWA - Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault has approved a controversial new oil project off the coast of Newfoundland.
Equinor's Bay du Nord project is expected to produce around 300 million barrels of oil over its lifetime. .../..

Federal environment minister approves Bay du Nord oil project off Newfoundland



Mtl JP  23:20:05 GMT - 04/06/2022  
more mushroom food:
-
Reuters
Fed officials to take cleaver to balance sheet; 'many' back big rate hikes

Bloomberg
Fed Officials Weigh Pruning Balance Sheet by $95 Billion a Month

(Bloomberg) -- Stocks and long-dated Treasuries maintained losses after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed officials were laser focused on tamping down inflation.



Mtl JP  23:42:06 GMT - 04/06/2022  
even more food for mushrooms
about Russia's war on Ukraine yellen says:
-
New York Times
- "the aim is ‘maximum pain’ for Russia without hurting the U.S. economy."

CBS News
- ..."enormous economic repercussions in Ukraine and beyond,"

- that the United States would not be participating in Group of 20 meetings if Russia was present. “So President Biden’s made it clear, and I certainly agree with him, ...

.."Should not 'infer anything' from ruble's recovery"

some of yellen's blabla during a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee

In the meantime, in case janet missed it, Deutsche Bank revised down its forecast for global growth Tuesday, noting two shocks in recent months – the war in Ukraine and elevated inflation in the U.S. and Europe.

"We are now projecting a recession in the US and a growth recession in the euro area within the next two years,"


dc CB  00:17:03 GMT - 04/07/2022  
c'mon greta ... throw a fit:

Reality trumps childish fanatasy.

'How dare you!!!!'



Mtl JP  00:19:26 GMT - 04/07/2022  
 
EURO 1.0904
-
I am thinking 1.0926 and 1.0945 should be
overnite Res and opps to load short
with appropriate own risk paras, naturally


dc CB  00:28:40 GMT - 04/07/2022  
totally not mentioned here on GV
Russia placed a Bid----5000 Ruples per Gram of Gold.
The Putin Put-----dollar equiv---near $1900/oz.



Mtl JP  00:35:36 GMT - 04/07/2022  
dc CB Carla Mozée made me wet my Depends with her
"The stock market's fear gauge soars 17% as aggressive Fed forces investors to 'wake up to screeching hawks' "

funny how suddenly sly lael founds words yesty

compared to her nomination hearing



Mtl JP  00:37:22 GMT - 04/07/2022  
CB 00:28 are you selling yours to vlad ?


dc CB  00:46:45 GMT - 04/07/2022  
not selling
just saying that some of the clowns that inhabit this forum...are, well clowns.


HK Dusty121.94stoppedatlow  03:02:38 GMT - 04/07/2022  
CB- I am shocked to hear there are clowns on this forum! :). Thanks for your posts.


Mtl JP  04:19:25 GMT - 04/07/2022  
dc CB 00:46 exactly what splinter up your donkey r u whining about ?


dc CB  05:57:41 GMT - 04/07/2022  
Thank you very much.....don't mention it...It will cause me to blush.

Urban Dictionary: thou doth protest too much.
'The Lady Doth Protest Too Much' Shakespeare
methinks thou dost protest too much





dc CB  06:01:27 GMT - 04/07/2022  
PS
otherwise there might ensue a discussion of the proposition that I introduced---------The Putin Put on Gold

But then.........


dc CB  06:53:31 GMT - 04/07/2022  
Coulrophobia (Fear of Clowns)

Who is at risk for coulrophobia?

What is coulrophobia?



Mtl JP  13:35:26 GMT - 04/07/2022  
 
EURO 1.0935
-
testing Res or sharks chewing sls


Mtl JP  13:39:50 GMT - 04/07/2022  
 
DLRx 99.46
-
help(ing) "risk" somewhat


Israel MacroMicro  13:42:40 GMT - 04/07/2022  
the point about DXY for now is not about EUR/USD actually, it is mainly about where GBP JPY and CHF will be when DXY does the 100 kiss. EUR/USD is a strong BUY for medium/long term.


just my opinion


Israel MacroMicro  13:44:13 GMT - 04/07/2022  
that means, EUR/USD will not be volatile. the volatility will express itself with other members that make part of DXY, not EUR.

fwiw imo


Mtl JP  13:50:24 GMT - 04/07/2022  
spooks vs spookies
odds are:
-
* the would-be spookers' aggressive rhetoric is now priced in
(ie spook shot load, guy n gals know what happens after)

* the dollar is still BoD on relative spooks' stance


Mtl JP  14:00:35 GMT - 04/07/2022  
EURO 1.0912
-
unless ... players somehow smell that
ECB goes crazy nuts with its Interest Rate Decision next week


Mtl JP  14:04:26 GMT - 04/07/2022  
EURO s/t:
Res 1.0935-ish, 50 and 00
S 1.0880, 50 and 00


Mtl JP  14:09:11 GMT - 04/07/2022  
spook bullard to spookies earlier this morn:
-
Seeking Alpha
13 minutes ago
St. Louis Fed's Bullard says Fed is behind the curve, the question is by how much
The Federal Reserve clearly needs to raise its key interest rate to slow inflation, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said at a speech at the University of Missouri on Thursday

Investing.com
21 minutes ago
Fed's Bullard Says Rate Ceiling of 3.5% Assumes "Generous" Reading of Price Trends
The Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates further than the market is currently expecting in order to bring inflation down, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday. Bullard, who has been out in front of his colleagues at the Fed in assessing the seriousness of the inflation surge in recent months,


Mtl JP  17:38:26 GMT - 04/07/2022  
 
spooks not spooki nuff for spookees ?


Mtl JP  23:01:33 GMT - 04/07/2022  
 
spookees getting friskier
it they continue they ll be calling the spooks' bluff


Mtl JP  10:32:15 GMT - 04/08/2022  
..."in my country cpi numbers came out. near 15%. biggest cpi reading in 25-30 years. it is eating already consumers. central forced to cut gdp outlook from +3-4% to -1%"...
-
yesterday, canadian finmin presented her budget. in it she gloated about canadian econ growth GDP - i.e. the sum total of all goods and services. ieeha: 5.7% in February at last reading. which fills her departments coffers more n more the higher "inflation" reading. GLORY to the printers! economy is hot, lets spend!

Lesson to be drawn
- some politicians are like red 07:49 "like any russian leader putin does not care about his people": i.e. just better at f..king the peasants


Mtl JP  10:41:07 GMT - 04/08/2022  
DLRx 99.82 (HoD 99.965)
so far 100 print elusive
-
sofar rising n' higher dlr appears to be tempering "risk"s animal spirits somewhat


Mtl JP  13:35:47 GMT - 04/08/2022  
DLRx 100.14
BOOM !!
-
Puppy is as agressive as a horny sailor back from a yr around the world
and likely to continue its rise as it continues to discount the future , namely next week's CPI print currently expected to be higher than last print


Mtl JP  14:30:30 GMT - 04/08/2022  
EURO 1.0853
-
Bear
puppy is not showing much uP oomph

Res 1.0925/50
Sup 1.0840/00

Puppy would likely need to regain 1.11 to mitigate prospect of run to 1.06


Mtl JP  15:05:30 GMT - 04/08/2022  
 
spookies vs spooks
-
having fun


Mtl JP  17:30:43 GMT - 04/08/2022  
"appropriate forms of oversight"
poof! crypto anonymity
-
Yellen delivered remarks on digital assets policy, innovation, and regulation at American University’s Kogod School of Business Center for Innovation.

SECRETARY STATEMENTS & REMARKS
Remarks from Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on Digital Assets
April 7, 2022



Mtl JP  15:28:59 GMT - 04/09/2022  
EURO 1.0875
14 April
7:45 - ECB Interest Rate Decision
7:45 - ECB Monetary Policy Statement
-
Trying to scare the kids:
Economists Wonder If ECB Could Kick Off With Half-Point Hike
Carolynn Look and Greg Ritchie

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Economists at major financial institutions are wondering whether the European Central Bank could adopt a more aggressive stance toward record inflation by lifting borrowing costs in a single half-point move before the year is out.

ING Group’s Carsten Brzeski said a lengthier spell of elevated price growth could “scare the ECB so much” that it “hikes interest rates by 50 basis points in September,” according to a report to clients on Thursday.

Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank economists led by Mark Wall said “the ECB could hike in larger increments -- 50 basis points -- at one or more forecast meetings.” .../.


macao win11  02:02:36 GMT - 04/10/2022  
Big plan ahead
Short term bearish: accumulate more by shaking out weak longs
Medium/long term bullish: expect bitcoin to hit 400k by 2024


Mtl JP  11:33:49 GMT - 04/10/2022  
gradually, then suddenly.
wtf:
-
Central Bank of Sri Lanka raised by 700bps its lending rate to 14.5% on Friday.

"Inflation" wisdoms:
Pelosi:
- Putin’s fault
-- The fix: multi-trillion dollar deficit spending is “reducing the national debt” and “not adding to inflation.”

Biden:
- "greed"s fault
-- The fix: anti-competitive regulations and attack capitalism

Federal Reserve:
- "supply chain dysfunction"s fault
-- The fix: reduce inflation by slowing, but not stopping, growth.
--- The how: not until their key rate reaches about 2.4%


Mtl JP  22:36:14 GMT - 04/10/2022  
(WSJ) Recession Risk Is Rising, Economists Say
Forecasters raise probability of economic contraction in next 12 months to 28% as Fed tightens to beat back inflation (from earlier 18%)

BUT ... why worry
with galivanting horses of apocalypse around:
-
(WSJ) Alastair Gale, Apr. 9, 2022
China has accelerated an expansion of its nuclear arsenal because of a change in its assessment of the threat posed by the U.S., people with knowledge of the Chinese leadership’s thinking say, shedding new light on a buildup that is raising tension between the two countries.

China Is Accelerating Its Nuclear Buildup Over Rising Fears of U.S. Conflict



Mtl JP  23:42:15 GMT - 04/10/2022  
in continuation of my JP 11:33
here is jeff cox with his five cents:
-
* Federal Reserve policymakers are going to try to slow down the economy and subdue inflation.

* Higher rates make money costlier and borrowing less appealing.

* That, in turn, slows demand to catch up with supply, which has lagged badly throughout the pandemic.

*Fed officials also have talked tough on inflation, in an effort to dampen future expectations.

* Potential effects include lower wages, a halt or even a drop in home prices and a decline in stock market valuations.

Have fun reading:

Here’s how the Fed raising interest rates can help get inflation lower, and why it could fail
FRI, APR 8 2022



Mtl JP  10:17:05 GMT - 04/11/2022  
USDCAD 1.2575
-
macklem's BoC on deck this week
players expecting 1/2pt rate hike


GVI Forex 12:25:07 GMT - 04/11/2022  
Look at the JPY as usdjpy surges above 125.

I wrote this on March 24i in my blog article

So, continue to look for the market to probe the path of least resistance, which in this case has been the YEN, which is weighed down by rising energy prices and a central bank that is least likely to tighten monetary policy.


PAR 12:47:14 GMT - 04/11/2022  
USDJPY starts to look like currency manipulation.

Japanese have always been happy with a weak currency.

It boosts Toyota's exports.


Mtl JP  14:39:36 GMT - 04/11/2022  
on deck:
-
already flapped gums:
- Bostic, Bowman, Waller
-- 12:40 Evans on Economy and Monetary Policy

tomorrow:
- US Mar CPI print


Mtl JP  16:28:19 GMT - 04/11/2022  
EURO 1.0875
-
macron / lepen ying yang
establishment trying to help/save their internationalist candidate by painting marine as "extreme right" (xenophobe and similar)

theoretical odds should favour macron and euro to 1.10 unless marine scores a bulls-eye or macron screws up somehow during the sole TV debate on the 24th


Mtl JP  16:33:20 GMT - 04/11/2022  
EURO 1.0882
-
in the meantime...
lagarde's ECB will pollute the market with its policy on Th
should be a sleeping pill to players
but some (one) could be disappointed / frustrated


Mtl JP  18:15:06 GMT - 04/11/2022  
busy boy jeff cox
carrying water for the aggressively inflation fighting FED gang:
-
apr 11 // ... "Consumers now see inflation hitting 6.6% over the next year, according to the New York Fed’s survey in March, released Monday. That’s a 10% increase in the median expectation just over the past month and the highest level in a series that dates to 2013. ... The data comes a day before the release of the March consumer price index, which is expected to show prices rising at an 8.4% pace over the past 12 months," .../.

Consumer fears over inflation hit a record high in March, New York Fed survey shows



Mtl JP  18:28:07 GMT - 04/11/2022  
 
the somewhat inconvenient thing for the FED is that
so-far not all players are yet equally massively "scared" of
the FED' dark anti-inflation screamings

but .. they do appear persistent in their communication guidance propaganda


Mtl JP  18:36:22 GMT - 04/11/2022  
geezus! barely finished typing one post...
-
Fed’s Evans says:
- half-point rate hike in May could now be ‘highly likely’
according to gregg robb's english

link



dc CB  22:01:44 GMT - 04/11/2022  
US market---the rest of the week---3 more days to trade.
Tues--CPI
Wed--PPI
Thurs-----OPEX
Fri---Closed --Good Friday.


Mtl JP  22:41:43 GMT - 04/11/2022  
To borrow from Emo:
"I'm Optimistic About The Future Of Pessimism"
-
The point of maximum pessimism — a bullish signal — hasn’t been reached

Bullish investors are fearful but they’ll need more pain to give up on stocks. They’ll get it.
By Mark Hulbert



Mtl JP  06:22:21 GMT - 04/12/2022  
** PAY ATTENTION **
note the date : three weeks ago


cramer makes a bold call in tonight's Talk of the Tape



Mtl JP  06:48:37 GMT - 04/12/2022  
--- nearly ---
-
* OPEC and the EU met on Monday amid pressure on the EU to impose a ban on Russian oil.

* OPEC's Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said it would be "nearly impossible" to replace Russian oil.

* Barkindo said the highly volatile market is not based on fundamentals and is out of its control.

OPEC has told the EU it's 'nearly impossible' to replace Russian oil cut off by sanctions or boycotts



Mtl JP  09:11:51 GMT - 04/12/2022  
 
this angle measures 63.7°


Mtl JP  09:36:43 GMT - 04/12/2022  
one yr ago: Mtl JP 07:49 GMT March 18, 2021
10-yr 1.722%
-
colleague reminded me that "Once you unlock the inflation genie it is hard to put it back in the bottle"


zoom forward:
10-yr 2.82%

It is curious why the FED gang theater group would wheel out a "sensitive" mushroom feeder appearing to shed a tear over some "collateral damage".




Mtl JP  10:02:17 GMT - 04/12/2022  
 
cnbc headlines pre-feeding the mushrooms:
-
"March's runaway energy prices and higher food costs could mean hottest consumer inflation since 1981"

"White House says it expects inflation to be ‘extraordinarily elevated’ in new report"

and what do (will) the cynics do ?


london red  10:09:33 GMT - 04/12/2022  
JP, "better to travel than arrive"
rates have been moving up for months. march cpi might be peak inflation for the year given technicals and lower crude in april. 10 year yield at key 2.81% touching a 40 year trendline. i think they fade the spike. all data going forward will be worse than months before. rates have nowehere to go. notice how 2 year unable to make headway now.


Mtl JP  10:46:26 GMT - 04/12/2022  
as CB astutely observed earlier 4 day break coming up starting Fr

not a week to take on large position(s)


GVI Forex 13:20:20 GMT - 04/12/2022  
Putin puts the kabosh on talks with Ukraine - said they are at a dead end.,, EURUSD slips on this



Mtl JP  14:16:43 GMT - 04/12/2022  
EURO 1.0885
-
overnite and earlier this a.m puppy is exhibiting lack of energy to pump N of 1.19

Res 1.0886/1.09
S 1.0850 and 1.0840/35


Mtl JP  16:20:30 GMT - 04/12/2022  
 
EURO 1.0863
-
holding the 50 line
"risk" should turn up soon as well


GVI Forex 16:23:08 GMT - 04/12/2022  
Yields dip after (but not the usd)

Fed's Brainard (voter) says commodities price shock is driving topline inflation, most focused on core inflation for assessing path of monetary policy

Source:

Newsquawk.com



Mtl JP  16:41:42 GMT - 04/12/2022  
 
-- amazing! ability --

how suddenly eloquent (almost like the 57,000 vocabularied shakespear) AND not yet understood lael can be -- see pic

(vs her answering Qs during her nomination on jan 13th)


Mtl JP  16:44:13 GMT - 04/12/2022  
EURO 1.0836
-
testing S


Mtl JP  17:03:19 GMT - 04/12/2022  
earlier today's biden with his "Imagine had the tobacco industry been immune to prostitute to being sued – come on" makes more sense than lael


Mtl JP  17:50:22 GMT - 04/12/2022  
 
some, but not all, trade like "inflation" has peaked


Mtl JP  17:56:54 GMT - 04/12/2022  
 
techs maybe looking for a repeat
or ... having 2nd thoughts


Mtl JP  17:58:02 GMT - 04/12/2022  
ding ding
14000
ding ding


Mtl JP  10:37:32 GMT - 04/13/2022  
 
DLRx 100.425
has the puppy gone parabolic ?
-
you be the judge


jkt abel  10:45:38 GMT - 04/13/2022  
but our HK and macau friends called for usd imminent collapse!


Israel MacroMicro  10:49:54 GMT - 04/13/2022  
______________________________________________________
Israel MacroMicro 13:42 GMT April 7, 2022
mkt: Reply
the point about DXY for now is not about EUR/USD actually, it is mainly about where GBP JPY and CHF will be when DXY does the 100 kiss. EUR/USD is a strong BUY for medium/long term.


just my opinion
______________________________________________________

the a.m. is from the past, now at this present, in case EUR/USD fails to crack the 1.0760/1.0800 floor within short period of time, it is probably wise to sell the USD. cracking that floor brings sub 1.06 on the EUR/USD radar and DXY may have few % higher.

all in all, crack that floor and USD wins :)


GVI Forex 12:35:34 GMT - 04/13/2022  
Hotter than expected US PPI - little reaction


Mtl JP  17:47:25 GMT - 04/13/2022  
 
USDCAD 1.2569
-
sub 1.26 says players believe macklem will hike another 50 in june

puppy probably at S here


Mtl JP  22:47:48 GMT - 04/13/2022  
 
GBP 1.3117-ish
-
can u hear
... the low 1.302x short

..... squeal



Mtl JP  00:35:01 GMT - 04/14/2022  
"If a person is important,people will line up to visit him even if he lives in a remote mountain village..If a person is not important,nobody will visit him even if he lives in the centre of a busy town"..(Chinese proveb).." - shanghai bc, Nov 2006
-
things are not looking good in light of janet l. yellen making threats a la bush " u r with us or against us" rather than on merit:

..."let’s be clear, the unified coalition of sanctioning countries will not be indifferent to actions that undermine the sanctions we’ve put in place." ...

two things strike me about her speech:
- who wrote it for her and
-- why did she - a labour specialized economist - agreed to peddle it
"it" : the shrinking "unified coalition of sanctioning countries" ?

not even cnn's interpretation of yellen's yak is reassuring me about the strength of cohesion of "world’s attitude", much clarifying why ... why is the US vitaly interested in ukraine beyond her alleged "deeply concerned about the impact of Russia’s war on food prices and supply, particularly on poor populations" fluff. maybe it is "the future of our international order".

April 13, 2022 • 12:20pm ET Transcript: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the next steps for Russia sanctions and ‘friend-shoring’ supply chains By Atlantic Council



Mtl JP  01:51:36 GMT - 04/14/2022  
ego ? sour grapes yellen seems like she is on a vendetta
(recall she was not able to hide her pissed-off/iness when she was passed over)
laying it out thick:

..."So the Fed is, clearly, on a path to try to address that. It’s their job to bring inflation down. I won’t comment on the strategy that they’re going to use. That’s their independent choice of what they think is right.

But, you know, they have a dual mandate. They will try to maintain strong labor markets while bringing inflation down but—and it has been done in the past. It’s not an impossible combination. But it will require skill and also good luck, and I know that that’s what they will try to accomplish." ... srce transcript


GVI Forex 12:58:08 GMT - 04/14/2022  
US-German yields currently diverging favoring usd today


Mtl JP  13:44:21 GMT - 04/14/2022  
GBP 1.3065
-
Bias : miaaah

in light of 1.3150-ish top
S 1.3050-ish, 1.3000 and below that: yesty's low


Israel MacroMicro  13:55:57 GMT - 04/14/2022  
NQ: 14110 LONG (day trade)


Mtl JP  03:53:27 GMT - 04/17/2022  
The Economist
... the result of ... anything, anyone BUT ...
-
''Surging food and energy prices, the result of wartime disruption to commodity markets ... brought even erstwhile government supporters onto the streets in protest ... may not be the only country to run aground in the hazardous conditions prevailing in the global economy.'' .../.

nothing is hazardous as long as "erstwhile government supporters on the street" are not busting down the doors of policymakers' glass towers waving pitchforks and lit torches

The Economist
Sri Lanka’s default could be the first of many
Soaring commodity prices and higher interest rates imperil the finances of many poor countries



Mtl JP  12:59:15 GMT - 04/17/2022  
astute kristalina on
"growing risk" & "consequential moment for the international community"
-
..."These double crises—pandemic and war—and our ability to deal with them, are further complicated by another growing risk: fragmentation of the world economy into geopolitical blocs—with different trade and technology standards, payment systems, and reserve currencies." .../..

Facing Crisis Upon Crisis: How the World Can Respond
By Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director
Washington, DC
April 14, 2022



Mtl JP  22:24:52 GMT - 04/17/2022  
practical optimist on "price inflation"


Mtl JP  22:28:11 GMT - 04/17/2022  
 
practical optimist on "price inflation" (take II)


jkt abel  06:22:49 GMT - 04/18/2022  
buy euro under 1.08 this week?


jkt abel  06:29:04 GMT - 04/18/2022  
crude oil and gold keep rising, why not euro and cousins?


jkt abel  08:14:38 GMT - 04/18/2022  
looks like correction done for WTI, morning gap also closed, ready to go up up and away


kl fs  09:32:29 GMT - 04/18/2022  
today just feels like you can close eyes and just press buy gold


kl shawn  09:39:11 GMT - 04/18/2022  
buy WTI 104.70-50 stop 101 target 112-114, buy gold 1989-1991 minimum target 2000, stop below 1987 will do


kl fs  10:02:39 GMT - 04/18/2022  
come on Putin or Xi, just announce some more war mongering comments or actions so gold and oil can fly


Mtl JP  10:37:02 GMT - 04/18/2022  
 
has this price chart gone parabolic already ?


kl fs  10:38:53 GMT - 04/18/2022  
not hyperbolic yet...


Mtl JP  12:14:43 GMT - 04/18/2022  
EURO 1.080x
Is the polling bell tolling for a macron poof! ?
-
..."PARIS (AP April 18) — Paris prosecutors are studying a report by the European Union's fraud agency accusing French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and other members of her nationalist party of misusing public funds while serving in the European Parliament." .../

***
It's Not Who Votes That Counts, It's Who Counts The Votes! - Stalin
***


Mtl JP  12:27:50 GMT - 04/18/2022  
Timeline
Ahead of April 24 run-off election
LePen and Macron 1900 GMT Wednesday TV debate
-
Bullard, Evans and Daly slated to yak "economy" this week
Powell and Lagarde scheduled to co-yak on Th
then it is blackout ahead of
FED's alleged aggressive inflation fighting 50bps in May


kl shawn  12:37:12 GMT - 04/18/2022  
wonderful gold, lets go! 2000 minimum target


Mtl JP  13:45:35 GMT - 04/18/2022  
on deck
-
16:00nyt hawk bullard on economy
zzzz ?


Belgrade Knez  13:54:44 GMT - 04/18/2022  
Mtl JP 12:14 GMT April 18, 2022 - My Profile

..."PARIS (AP April 18) — Paris prosecutors are studying a report by the European Union's fraud agency accusing French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and other members of her nationalist party of misusing public funds while serving in the European Parliament." .../
--------------------------------------------------------
what a joke! ..... investing her now just before second presidential round ..... democracy at its peak! ..... LOL
if it happens here in Balkan, then everyone will say: big lack of democracy hence you are not ready to join European Union! ..... LOL


Belgrade Knez  13:56:51 GMT - 04/18/2022  
investing shoud read INVESTIGATING..... typo


Israel MacroMicro  14:00:02 GMT - 04/18/2022  
Belgrade Knez 13:56 GMT April 18, 2022

Twitter would get EDIT button before Global-View, even if Mr. Meisler established Global-View before Twitter entered the business.

next time, send an email to Mr. Meisler and he will correct the typo :)


Mtl JP  14:20:23 GMT - 04/18/2022  
"edit button"
-
99% self-policing forum = little need to edit

no trading-monkies jumping around throwing confetti celebrating hind-sight foresight having avoided wfakhoury 14:20 GMT April 13 "Incredible signal"


Belgrade Knez  14:31:07 GMT - 04/18/2022  
Israel MacroMicro 14:00 GMT April 18, 2022

Every time I make a typo, I was asking Jay to correct it and ever time he did it immediately! ....
today I thought still Easter holiday so maybe I just post another line to correct myself


Israel MacroMicro  14:53:15 GMT - 04/18/2022  
Mtl JP 14:20 GMT April 18, 2022

10? 15? 30? 45? 60? minutes limit to edit?

something? 15 minutes fair enough and better for earth, saving energy with all that pointless emails



Mtl JP  15:23:37 GMT - 04/18/2022  
earth does not need saving; its capable by all-itself


Mtl JP  15:29:20 GMT - 04/18/2022  
NatGas 7.86 - roaring

lots of europeans going to go smelly
forgoing hot showers
maybe "inflationary" for perfumes


Mtl JP  15:56:52 GMT - 04/18/2022  
Miaaw! !!
-
Survey finds cheating wives are

more likely to own a cat



Mtl JP  17:02:33 GMT - 04/18/2022  
NatGas busting N of 8
-
was it ever this high ?
my database does not show last time


Mtl JP  17:05:46 GMT - 04/18/2022  
 
NatGas
only at about 50% of 2005 high
-
I forgot to switch to monthly bar


Mtl JP  18:05:26 GMT - 04/18/2022  
 
looks like "risk" players r daring
hawk bullard in two hrs


Mtl JP  19:39:19 GMT - 04/18/2022  
 
stock now in full gaming bullard mode
pretending to be scared of the hawk


Mtl JP  20:09:59 GMT - 04/18/2022  
yellen caused by russia
to leave her den:
-
* Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with ministers from the globe’s industrial nations to address a growing food crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

* Yellen and her deputy, Wally Adeyemo, are set for a packed agenda with leaders of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Group of Seven and Group of 20.

* Yellen will also hold a closed-door meeting with the prime minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal

Treasury Secretary Yellen to meet with top finance ministers to address global food crisis



Mtl JP  20:23:57 GMT - 04/18/2022  
 
players' reaction to hawk bullard claim that
the gang has a good plan in place


Mtl JP  20:56:05 GMT - 04/18/2022  
today bullard makes me think he is not all there
throwing around kitchen sink:

has a lot of 'not base case' s
- reverse twist
-- cooling housing would reasonable
--- 75'er not on table but also not ruled out
---- min 3.5% fedrate by yr-end a must
----- IF the "good plan" does not produce: reach for "plan b" (plan b = faster balance sheet reduction)
------ IF ukrainian turns for the worse (whatever that means): could affect monetary policy


Mtl JP  21:04:40 GMT - 04/18/2022  
no chitt sherlock bullard:
-
inflation ... could get out of hand quickly (hahahahaha) IF "we" don't act quickly . fed credility being tested


dc CB  22:27:27 GMT - 04/18/2022  
Truth or Dare----it is no longer possible to tell.

By Graham Summers, MBA

If you’ve been wondering why stocks suddenly exploded higher last month… wonder no more!

We were told the Fed ended its Quantitative Easing (QE) on March 9th 2022. That’s a strange claim given that the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by $55 BILLION since that time. Heck, the Fed just bought ~$25 billion worth of Mortgage Backed-Securities (MBS) last week.

How odd… the Fed supposedly ended QE… but right as stocks began to break down, “someone” suddenly panic bought the markets forcing them higher… and then it turns out the Fed was actually expanding its balance sheet by $55 billion over the same time period.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-04-18/fed-lied-qe-didnt-end-protect-your-portfolio-inflation-now


GVI Forex 13:25:02 GMT - 04/19/2022  
yields up => usd follows but cautiously


Mtl JP  14:00:15 GMT - 04/19/2022  
 
Forex 13:25 so is "risk"
in perfect sense


Mtl JP  14:56:58 GMT - 04/19/2022  
EURO 1.079x
-
wed's tv debate in france is macron's to lose in light of his currently alleged margin over lepen. IF players will perceive macron gaining further should slightly support euro , maybe above 1.08

R 1.08
S 1.076, 1.075, 1.0700


Mtl JP  16:11:53 GMT - 04/19/2022  
IMF
- reduced global GDP from 4.5% to 3.5% for 2022
-- forecasts "inflation" at 12% for europe

a note:
leaving reality of relative disproportionate distances to travel in europe vs usa/canada, liter of gas in europe approx $3.50/4.00L vs my approx $1.85/L


PAR 16:44:09 GMT - 04/19/2022  
Guess Lagarde will say the IMF is always wrong.


Israel MacroMicro  20:59:49 GMT - 04/19/2022  
seems that only documentary about Global-View and Meisler's AT gonna save $NFLX




Mtl JP  23:06:03 GMT - 04/19/2022  
USDCAD 1.2609 - sofar quiete
-
The Canadian Press
Canada will send heavy artillery to Ukraine, Trudeau pledges
1 hour ago


Mtl JP  00:03:18 GMT - 04/20/2022  
good quality comedy piece
may - or not- cure some "sad" sacks
-
Central bank says it is possible, but many factors are out of its control; ‘they are strikingly behind’

Hot Economy, Rising Inflation: The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This
By Jon Hilsenrath and Nick Timiraos



Mtl JP  00:32:46 GMT - 04/20/2022  
 
yo sherlock!
-
U.S. 30 Year Treasury Yield - 8:27 PM EDT
3.016% up+0.026



Mtl JP  09:30:05 GMT - 04/20/2022  
EURO 1.0835 = players betting on frog TV debate macron "win"

***
earlier jeff cox reported on Bostic expressing caution about the pace of interest rate hikes

re "ECB still seems" (seems = optical illusion, speculation)
-- christine and jerome will co-appear and co-yak on Th
Theme: "just roll with 'em"


Mtl JP  09:39:17 GMT - 04/20/2022  
OR ...
looking at - maybe - someone dumping dlryen as 130 undesirable ?
"ploink"


GVI Forex 09:43:35 GMT - 04/20/2022  
EURUSD spikes higher on (note reaction to the news is more important than the news itself)

ECB's Kazak's says a rate hike is possible as soon as July this year, ending A{{ early in Q3 is possible and appropriate, zero is not a cap for the deposit rate.

Source:

Newsquawk.com



Mtl JP  09:47:18 GMT - 04/20/2022  
kazak trying to reverse eujro's pathetic uP momentum ?
lets see how long euro hold 1.08 support


Mtl JP  09:52:26 GMT - 04/20/2022  
lower dlr
-
lower usdyen - higher eurdlr = lower dlr = "risk" perks uP some


hk ab  10:03:54 GMT - 04/20/2022  

Mtl JP 09:39 GMT 04/20/2022

This happened in 2008 before Beijing Olympic, when I sold a chunk of dlr/jpy for my japanese trip.

But that was 2008 when dlr/jpy hit 120......

Then it collapsed.


Mtl JP  10:08:37 GMT - 04/20/2022  
 
news 48hrs before
ntlx reaction-puked on N/Am

says watson to sherlock


Mtl JP  10:19:50 GMT - 04/20/2022  
ab did it collapse because you sold first ?

someone suggested to me for JGB to blowup BoJ gang would need collective lobotomy


Mtl JP  10:21:55 GMT - 04/20/2022  
maybe dlryen will hold S around 1.2695


Mtl JP  14:26:12 GMT - 04/20/2022  
for the record
Canada statscan reported that by their calculations march inflation hit 6.7%, full percentage point above the level seen in February and higher than the 6.1% that "experts" had been forecasting

Bottom Line
BoC has more incentive to hike hiKE


Mtl JP  08:32:25 GMT - 04/21/2022  

Israel Adds Yuan to $206 Billion Reserves in ‘Philosophy’ Change
- Canadian, Australian, Japanese currencies also added to basket
- Bank of Israel is moving to reduce allocation for dollar, euro


Mtl JP  08:35:53 GMT - 04/21/2022  
newsworthy ?
-
Fed’s Daly says the economy can handle rate hikes, but a mild recession is possible - Jeff Cox


Mtl JP  09:09:18 GMT - 04/21/2022  
dlrcad 1.2472
"more to do"
-
The economists cite the pandemic, inflation and interest rate hikes among reasons why Canada is ripe for a downturn.

Canada is headed for a recession, economists say



Mtl JP  15:49:22 GMT - 04/21/2022  
EURO 1.0850
-
puppy just unable to hold 1.09, let alone challenge and romp N of 1.0950

sub 1.0850 opens up 1.0780/60


Mtl JP  16:31:10 GMT - 04/21/2022  
not too difficult
-
EURO 1.0833 from my 1.0850 post
good for the 5-7 pip hunt


Mtl JP  16:37:59 GMT - 04/21/2022  
On Deck
in 1/2 hr
-
jerome and christine to yak at some IMF panel
about "Global Economy"


Mtl JP  16:43:33 GMT - 04/21/2022  
GBP 1.3042
-
BoEs baily already yakking a few minutes and likely whining about uncertain economic environment and how it is making his monetary policy difficult


Mtl JP  16:49:56 GMT - 04/21/2022  
 
GBP, bailey, mann and the prospects of a june rate hike
-
I think players are giving these twins too much faith and credit
puppy is likely to do a "moskva"


Mtl JP  16:56:18 GMT - 04/21/2022  
some tried correcting me that, to me, it is

Dr Catherine L Mann, PhD



Mtl JP  18:00:38 GMT - 04/21/2022  
jerome says he thinks
therefor he is
-
... "half-point interest-rate increase “will be on the table” during the May policy meeting ... “So it is appropriate, in my view, to be moving a little more quickly,” .. “I also think there’s something in the idea of front-end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So that does — that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table.” ... blablabla

Fed’s Powell Puts Half-Point Rate Hike on the Table for May



Mtl JP  18:15:38 GMT - 04/21/2022  
so now the Q is:
-
is a 50ptr - if n when it actually comes rather than just paroles - too much ?



Mtl JP  18:17:56 GMT - 04/21/2022  
so far
- Gold 1944 (sleeping)
-- euro 1.0842 (sleeping)
--- 10-yr: 2.931% +0.095


Mtl JP  09:57:41 GMT - 04/22/2022  
 
EURO 1.0807 H&S
potential trgt


Mtl JP  14:22:22 GMT - 04/22/2022  
 
GBP 1.2870
-
bailey yaks at botton of hour
probably more whining about difficult environment and how difficult to make a rate decision for him


Mtl JP  14:25:58 GMT - 04/22/2022  
 
bigger bird's-eye GBP view
lets see how useful tool bailey can be


london red  15:43:10 GMT - 04/22/2022  
re cable then that swing high from june 2020 at 12813. id be surprised if they close the week below it on the first test. might get down as far as 12675 and bounce to close north of 129.


GVI Forex 16:24:11 GMT - 04/22/2022  
Commodity currencies weakening and risk off in stocks suggest pricing in a risk of recession from a Fed (and other CBs) behind the curve and having to front load rate hikes to combat inflation.


Mtl JP  16:37:53 GMT - 04/22/2022  
haha "experts". always something's or someone else's blame except...
"one thinks":
-
“So it is appropriate, in my view, to be moving a little more quickly,” “I also think there’s something in the idea of front-end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So that does — that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table.” jerome april 21

do they seriously think pre-announcing a 50-ptr is frontloading - by what math ?


Mtl JP  16:56:51 GMT - 04/22/2022  
GBP 1.2840
-
sub 1.2862-ish earlier S puppy now sitting at longer-term S (ref daily)
I am thinking players are re-evaluating their earlier enthusiasm for BoE's bobbsey twins to hike by upto 175bps by yr-end especial now in light of crappy econ data earlier today (not that it should have been surprising news)

1.28 on radar, lower maybe as more players get epiphany about BoE's "courage" to hike in an increasingly crappier economy


dc CB  00:47:00 GMT - 04/23/2022  
Gaps to watch.......Sunday nite.
So what;s the Open Interest---what's the average daily volume----shud I enter----the Margin will No Doubt go to ????? Used to be earlier this year about $800 per contract.
____________________________________________________

The world's biggest palm oil producer, Indonesia, is the latest country to embrace protectionist measures to mitigate domestic food shortages, according to Bloomberg.

President Joko Widodo on Friday announced the export ban of all cooking oil and palm oil products would begin on April 28.

Widodo said during a television broadcast that the measures aimed to ensure domestic markets had ample cooking oil supplies following a dramatic increase in prices.

"I will monitor and evaluate the implementation of this policy so availability of cooking oil in the domestic market becomes abundant and affordable," he said.

Following the news, traders are placing bullish bets that world supplies of cooking oil and palm oil products will tighten even more. U.S. soyoil futures jumped more than 3% to a record high of 84 cents per pound.


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/indonesia-bans-edible-oil-export-sparks-mayhem-global-food-crisis-ahead

SoyBean Oil



Mtl JP  11:42:40 GMT - 04/23/2022  
they cite "turbulance"
-
Better.com, wells fargo announcing more moRE .... layoffs

why not shift employee overhead to collections or repo dept instead
the brutes

***

as yellen and her g-20 allies and partners are dictating to separate fin policy and economic activity from russia israel, china and russia are, quietly, acquiescing and in the process birthing a disconnected monetary system in which
- US dollar is not the reserve currency,
- Gold is being offered as backup

and what Exxon and the likes are coerced into dumping, beijing is picking up for the proverbial dime on the dollar.

In the meantime janet "go big" yellen and her "independent" printing minion jerome are babbling about aggressively fighting "covid and russia"s fault "inflation" allegedly aiming to expertly tame inflation without titsing the economy into recession utopia.

feel the earth move
under your seat


Mtl JP  13:29:25 GMT - 04/23/2022  
priceless shameless
-
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday said it was worth considering taking steps to lower U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods given the "desirable effects" such a move could have on lowering U.S. inflation, which has hit 40-year highs this year.

"We want to do everything that we can to lower inflation," Yellen told Bloomberg TV


Mtl JP  16:17:00 GMT - 04/23/2022  
 
EURO 1.0795
-
optional trading opp
gaming french election


Mtl JP  10:58:31 GMT - 04/24/2022  
legitimate targets if true ?
zelensky, the white house spokesman,
-
"gave a defiant news conference in Kyiv on Saturday and revealed that the U.S. secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, and the defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, would visit Kyiv on Sunday." - according to nyt' s Andrew E. Kramer

and hand out more victoria cookies

***

Bloomberg Economics
@economics
·
German Minister Flags Stagflation Risk as Ukraine Strains Build
Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner highlighted the risk of stagflation as the country faces up to the economic perils posed by the conflict in Ukraine.
·
Zimbabwe’s central bank said it has “no reason or appetite to raid” foreign-exchange accounts and denied allegations of a bank run
.
Germany to Borrow Extra 40 Billion Euros to Cushion War Blow
Germany will increase borrowing plans by nearly 40 billion euros ($43 billion) this year to cushion the effect of the war in Ukraine, taking the total for net new debt to almost 140 billion euros,
·
Investor outflows from China reflect a deepening divergence in monetary policy between the world’s two biggest economies
·
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen entered an often heated debate in the European Union over how to readjust public finances following Covid, saying that more flexible fiscal rules are needed


Mtl JP  18:47:39 GMT - 04/24/2022  
EURO 1.0794
-
Macron 58,2% (back for 5 more yrs)
Le Pen 41,8% (poof!)


dc CB  00:48:23 GMT - 04/25/2022  
dc CB 00:47 GMT 04/23/2022
Gaps to watch.......Sunday nite.
The world's biggest palm oil producer, Indonesia, is the latest country to embrace protectionist measures to mitigate domestic food shortages, according to Bloomberg.
______________________________________________--

The Guardian reports that Tesco, with more than 4,000 retail stores, placed buying limits of three cooking oil bottles per customer. It follows Waitrose and Morrisons, other supermarket chains that set limits of just two per customer.

Supermarkets are also placing buying restrictions on olive and rapeseed oils. There was news Friday that the world's largest palm oil producer, Indonesia, announced an export ban of all cooking oil and palm oil products, which adds even more tightness to global cooking oil supplies.

UK's Largest Supermarket Begins Rationing Cooking Oil Amid Supply Disruption



dc CB  01:01:54 GMT - 04/25/2022  
soybean oil---Soybeans
canola --- rapeseed (Canadian crop)
sunflower oil---those big smiling sunflowers
palm oil.........
cottonseed oil

Read the label on many 'processed' food packages. Most contain a combination of the above.

olive oil---rarely used in processed foods. jarred tomato sauces...cheaper sauces have some of the Above---plus Sugar as one of the 4 top ingredients.


dc CB  02:04:10 GMT - 04/25/2022  
hoarding time.

3 litres



dc CB  02:07:08 GMT - 04/25/2022  
single source
dated pressing

Terra Delyssa Extra Virgin Olive Oil



GVI Forex 13:15:17 GMT - 04/25/2022  
Liquidating/run for cover merry-go-round day.

Oil, metals, fx


Mtl JP  13:59:11 GMT - 04/25/2022  
chicken and egg
-
"risk" down pushing DLR uP or
DLR Up pushing "risk" down


Mtl JP  23:01:29 GMT - 04/25/2022  
 
DLRx 101.74
savage. pure savage
-
price level often not soo significant as the speed at which price is changing


Mtl JP  23:21:37 GMT - 04/25/2022  
 
(not just) DLRx' rate of price change, when frolicking parabolically,
suggests prudence towards potential price pullbacks
which can be more dramatic than the runup


dc CB  01:27:12 GMT - 04/26/2022  
"The news of my death is greatly exaggerated." ― W.C. Fields

as noted when the Forum was filled with multiple Death of the USD posts.....

We(the US) sits on the hydrocarbon resources---just like the Ruskies---that actually power the world.

As seen in this year ---- the European princes are suicidal ---- making an Energy Enemy of Russia---their only Pipeline to those hydrocarbons.
Stupidly believing that the US can or even will save them shipping LNG over the ocean from LNG plants that have yet to be built.

WWII would have turned out different If Only---Winter hadn't come (the Napoleon Mistake), AND they had enough gas.

ps---imho --- the Russo-Ukraine(nee NATO) headlines will be over by mid May.


dc CB  02:45:52 GMT - 04/26/2022  
dc CB 00:48 GMT 04/25/2022
dc CB 00:47 GMT 04/23/2022
Gaps to watch.......Sunday nite.
The world's biggest palm oil producer, Indonesia, is the latest country to embrace protectionist measures to mitigate domestic food shortages, according to Bloomberg.
__________________________________________________-
Palm oil futures slid Monday after Indonesia's export ban on cooking oil last Friday will not be as strict as previously feared.

On Friday, Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, announced an export ban of all cooking oil and palm oil products beginning April 28. However, those who are in the know told Bloomberg that bulk and packaged RBD palm olein, a highly refined form of palm oil used in cooking and baking, will only be subjected to the ban.

People familiar with the matter said exports of crude palm oil and RBD palm oil will still be available for export. RBD olein accounts for nearly 40% of Indonesia's total palm oil exports.


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/indonesia-allows-some-palm-oil-exports-after-ban-sends-prices-rollercoaster


Mtl JP  02:56:15 GMT - 04/26/2022  
..."NATO) headlines will be over by mid May." ...
what will replace 'em u think ?


Mtl JP  07:01:03 GMT - 04/26/2022  
 
this ... would be china's yuan
-
going ploink in the toilet
to the tune of 3.6% and screaming
economy going the way of "moskva"



Mtl JP  09:59:23 GMT - 04/26/2022  
 
1.2715
-
what sort of future price meanderings do you foresee for this puppy ?


Mtl JP  10:55:04 GMT - 04/26/2022  
I am from the government. I am here to help / protect you:
-
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
@SECGov
April 25 - Today we announced updates to the list of unregistered entities that use misleading information to solicit primarily non-U.S. investors, adding 58 soliciting entities, 11 impersonators of genuine firms, and one bogus regulator.

You can search the entire PAUSE LIST here

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission @SECGov



GVI Forex 13:45:24 GMT - 04/26/2022  
Risk off start…


Mtl JP  14:04:10 GMT - 04/26/2022  
DXy frolicking with 102 + 10-yr circa 3% yield + yuan into toilet = us "risk" down

the Q :
how much more uP does the DLR have in the tank


Belgrade Knez  14:15:59 GMT - 04/26/2022  
USDX
Jan 2017 =103.80
Mar 2020 = 103.80

looking farward for third test of the level and EU to test 1.0635 (Mar 2020 low)


Mtl JP  14:44:20 GMT - 04/26/2022  
 
EURO 1.0650ish
odds are
-
1.0635 will hold S on first approach


Mtl JP  14:54:01 GMT - 04/26/2022  
 
this puppy is heading for 85 and + (86)
I am betting on BoE rate hike chicken


Mtl JP  16:59:57 GMT - 04/26/2022  
opinion is a like a donkeyhole: everyone has one
this one is a bit different coz its getting some sunlight.

ladys and gents !
chose your weapon; chose your side:
-
"We will get a major recession," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday. The problem ...

A major recession is coming, Deutsche Bank warns
By Matt Egan, CNN Business,
April 26, 2022



dc CB  17:45:32 GMT - 04/26/2022  
dc CB 02:45 GMT 04/26/2022
dc CB 00:48 GMT 04/25/2022
dc CB 00:47 GMT 04/23/2022
Gaps to watch.......Sunday nite.
The world's biggest palm oil producer, Indonesia, is the latest country to embrace protectionist measures to mitigate domestic food shortages, according to Bloomberg.

__________________________________________-
July Soybean Oil ---UP $2.40
Dec Soybean Oil --- UP $1.90

July Canola--- UP 31.70


dc CB  18:56:58 GMT - 04/26/2022  
Stellar Demand, Record Low Dealers In Blockbuster 2Y Auction

at a high yield of 2.585%, the auction stopped 1.1bps through the When Issued. That said, this was one of the highest 2Y auction yields going back to the financial crisis, and was just shy of prior cycle high of 2.88% hit in Oct 2018, just before the Fed was forced to end its tightening plans.

having seen yields collapse across the curve and especially the 10Y which was down 7bps at last check, the remarkably solid demand for 2Y paper is certainly suggesting that we may be approaching the "peak inflation" moment, and that 2.5% is roughly where the Fed will hike to before it is forced to start easing again.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stellar-demand-record-low-dealers-blockbuster-2y-auction


GVI Forex 20:14:59 GMT - 04/26/2022  
This was out earlier

A major recession is coming, Deutsche Bank warns


dc CB  20:58:01 GMT - 04/26/2022  
Mtl JP 02:56 GMT 04/26/2022 - My Profile
..."NATO) headlines will be over by mid May." ...
what will replace 'em u think ?

there are many candy-dates in the wings---esp those involving democrats.
The 'Press' aka the failing MSM, needs blood---they have shelves (rather gigs of data) that they have suppressed over the last dozen years.......................
here's a couple, that will fill a couple of months.

*the Hunter Biden saga
*the HRC campaign/Russians are coming, the Durham Grand Juries

See the later part of the French Revolution---when the Jacobins ran out of royals to feed the crowds gathered to watch the daily 'falling knife'.
They turned and fed their own into that marvelous machine.


Mtl JP  00:37:20 GMT - 04/27/2022  
 
EURO 1.0638
-
maybe playing with falling knife here but
I think further 250+ pip dive has low odds

ps / risk management is a personal thing


dc CB  00:43:51 GMT - 04/27/2022  
I'd wait until the other 2 Treas auctions go off this week before pulling that trigger.
the 5s and 7s


mkt
dc CB 18:56 GMT 04/26/2022
Stellar Demand, Record Low Dealers In Blockbuster 2Y Auction


Mtl JP  00:50:16 GMT - 04/27/2022  
WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Polish and Bulgarian officials said Tuesday that Moscow is cutting off natural gas deliveries to their countries due to their refusal to pay in Russian rubles .../.


dc CB  00:57:57 GMT - 04/27/2022  
sooo
gotta have them Greenbacks for those tankers of LNG and those Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC)----of yes of course we're drilling....just charging 'our guys' more and You Europeans....well....

After all ----the End of Capitalism is Near...so those in the Children's Crusade shout and moan....a bit of history, which is no longer taught, could have filled them in on how that worked out.



Mtl JP  09:18:51 GMT - 04/27/2022  
 
$7.00
see if the H&S works
-
Forewarned, forearmed
and "they" continue to whine:

Russia accused of ‘blackmail’ after halting gas supplies to two European countries



Mtl JP  13:49:39 GMT - 04/27/2022  
 
$7.27
HnS : progress so far
nb / nothing is 100% guaranteed
just odds


Mtl JP  15:11:00 GMT - 04/27/2022  
GBP 1.2511
co-heaving with euro
as pukefest racing is on
and players teasing the CB would-be inflation fighters


Mtl JP  18:39:25 GMT - 04/27/2022  
 
$7.30-ish
HnS: reportcard
-
HnS ideal trgt suggestion: circa $7.54
puppy H: 7.50

Bottom Line
HnS tactical use: not bad, there is worse


dc CB  19:33:46 GMT - 04/27/2022  
 
dc CB 17:45 GMT 04/26/2022
dc CB 02:45 GMT 04/26/2022
Gaps to watch.......Sunday nite

April 27, 2022
Indonesia Adds to Global Food Shock With Widened Palm Export Ban
Move sent market into a tailspin and may worsen food inflation
Policy will include crude palm oil, used cooking oil and more

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/indonesia-to-halt-crude-palm-oil-exports-in-expanded-ban

July Soybean Oil closed today UP $2.28


Mtl JP  23:06:50 GMT - 04/27/2022  
CB 19:33 / can u spell (hoarding, profiteering, gauging and greedy) mofos ?
-
Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports is unlikely to last more than a month as Jakarta has limited infrastructure to store the surplus oil and the country faces mounting pressure from buyers to resume shipments, industry officials said. ... . ... Indonesia is now holding around 5 million tonnes of palm oil stocks, and the country's storage capacity of around 6-7 million tonnes would be full by the end of next month, said a Singapore-based dealer with a global trading firm.

Reuters Indonesia's palm oil export ban seen short-lived on limited storage



dc CB  23:50:20 GMT - 04/27/2022  
JP
no but I can spell---trading opportunity.
You go figure it out.
STATSCAN next week reports Canadian Planting Intention-----can you spell Canola---aka Rapeseed.

trade em on the way up, trade em on the way down.....lol


dc CB  23:59:40 GMT - 04/27/2022  
45 mins intv with Doomberg.

Energy analyst Doomberg returns to the program to explain just how cornered Europe is in terms of energy. Currently, it is dependent on Russia for natural gas that can't be sufficiently replaced by alternate means for at least several years.

Europe will be forced to continue to remain vulnerable to its Russian supplier for the foreseeable future. Poor policy has led to this decision. Will Europe be able to chart a wiser course from here? It's unclear at this point, as several of the most promising options are still being ignored/decommissioned.

Europe Trapped As An Energy Vassal To Russia For Years To Come



Mtl JP  01:51:57 GMT - 04/28/2022  
Of Incongruencies
-
(NBCNews) "As Russia launched its invasion, the U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News. ... a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said, “We are regularly providing detailed, timely intelligence to the Ukrainians on the battlefield to help them defend their country against Russian aggression and will continue to do so.”


NYT - Fears are mounting that the war in Ukraine will spill across its borders.
WASHINGTON — For nine weeks, President Biden and the Western allies have emphasized the need to keep the war for Ukraine inside Ukraine.

Now, the fear in Washington and European capitals is that the conflict may soon escalate into a wider war — spreading to neighboring states, to cyberspace and to NATO countries suddenly facing a Russian cutoff of gas. Over the long term, such an expansion could evolve into a more direct conflict between Washington and Moscow reminiscent of the Cold War, as each seeks to sap the other’s power.

Ok - that may or not matter much
But here is a "ringer" that may matter much, directly to me (and maybe you)
from the NYT piece: ..."spreading to ... cyberspace"

forewarned = forearmed:
Reuters on MSN.com
French police to investigate vandalism behind internet outage
The Paris prosecutor's office said it has opened a probe into the causes of a major internet outage which affected France's telecommunications network on Wednesday following reports of coordinated acts of vandalism.

Internet outage, coordinated acts of vandalism she says ...
THE QUESTION:
How would I , you, be able to manage trades on the skewer ? Or call ubereats or 911 ...






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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