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Mtl JP  09:43:49 GMT - 05/12/2022  
Brent 106

Biden and Draghi met in the Oval Office on Tuesday
“general concept” of capping prices...
..."Draghi has floated the creation of a “cartel” of oil consumers, following a meeting with US president Joe Biden that included talks on revamping energy markets triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday in Washington, Draghi said he and Biden shared a “dissatisfaction” with the structure of global energy markets and had discussed the “general concept” of capping prices of both oil and gas." ...

apparently biden did NOT echo dragi however

Mtl JP  00:35:09 GMT - 05/12/2022  
CB / "go figure"
who more qualified at figuring than janet "go big" yellen:
"This is not harsh. This is the truth."

Treasury Secretary Yellen says reversing Roe v. Wade would have 'damaging effects on the economy'

Mtl JP  00:14:32 GMT - 05/12/2022  
Fed gang members full force out
feeding mushroom "food":
Fed Should Hike to 5% or Higher to Curb Inflation, Dudley Says
(Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley said the U.S. central bank should stop “sugarcoating” its message on how high interest rates need to go -- and how much pain that will cause -- to get inflation under control.

Fed Officials Dig In Against Critics, Unite Behind Powell Plan
(Bloomberg) -- Harshly criticized for being late in responding to surging inflation, Federal Reserve policy makers at one of their first in-person conferences of the Covid-19 era promised to unite behind Chair Jerome Powell’s strategy to tamp down prices.

Fed’s Bostic Backs ‘Moving More’ on Rates If Inflation Persists
(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he is open to raising interest rates to restrict economic growth if inflation, which accelerated more than forecast in April, persists at elevated levels.

Fed’s Bullard backs plan to hike rates by 50 basis points at each of next two meetings
MarketWatch (*..*)
(*..*) Qtn: has the FED ever in its history hike 2x in a row ? let alone 3x ?

Mtl JP  23:52:56 GMT - 05/11/2022  
maybe temporary typo:
US 10-YR 2.925 UNCH
US 20-YR 3.265 +0.003
US 30-YR 3.045 UNCH

srce: cnbc

Mtl JP  22:30:42 GMT - 05/11/2022  
CB 20:30 ya but consider the posi-uPside:

biden posts record $308 billion budget surplus in April
coz federal tax receipts surge (in high inflation environment)

Mtl JP  22:22:33 GMT - 05/11/2022  
CB 20:21 price is too low, too much demand.

dc CB  20:30:31 GMT - 05/11/2022  
well at least he dosen't tweet mean stuff. that's why we all voted for him.

Wed gallows Humor-

dc CB  20:21:49 GMT - 05/11/2022  
WASDE---USDA noon tomrow.

Major trucking fleets across the eastern half of the US are preparing for an "imminent" diesel shortage, according to logistics firm FreightWaves.

Founder and CEO of FreightWaves Craig Fuller said "3 very large fleets" are preparing for diesel pumps at fuel stations to run dry. Drivers of these fleets received notifications about fuel shortages that could materialize in the coming weeks across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions.

Major truckstop chains Loves and Pilot warning about imminent diesel shortages in the eastern half of the US
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🇺🇦 (@FreightAlley) May 11, 2022

Trucking Firms Prepare For "Imminent Diesel Shortage In Eastern Half Of US"

Israel MacroMicro  18:00:12 GMT - 05/11/2022  
long NQ @ 12010

Mtl JP  17:59:16 GMT - 05/11/2022  
It is not often that I see Greg Robb go out on a limb interpreting on behalf of the FED gang :
"A slew of Fed officials have spoken this week. Here are some of the major themes that have emerged with the next policy meeting only a little over a month away:

Dissecting recent Fed talk — Central bank set on two half-percentage-point moves for summer

Mtl JP  17:48:09 GMT - 05/11/2022  
USDYEN 1.2950
under 130.0x t-line Sup
could be ... the beginning of a reversal

thanks for the heads up mates

Mtl JP  17:34:13 GMT - 05/11/2022  
GBP 1.2268 LoD sofar
good nuff 4 me

tokyo ginko  17:02:44 GMT - 05/11/2022  
resumes downtrend to target 128.50 and break, no typo

Mtl JP  17:01:00 GMT - 05/11/2022  
ginko is 129 typo ?

tokyo ginko  16:56:09 GMT - 05/11/2022  
usdjpy resumes downside with test and break of 128.50

Mtl JP  16:41:16 GMT - 05/11/2022  
GBP 1.2300
something about 1.2260 says "key"

Mtl JP  15:57:19 GMT - 05/11/2022  
GBP 1.2320
puppy frolicking inside 1.23/1.24
I m biased down ; i.e trading it from the short side

Res 1.2340/50 & 1.24
Sup 1.2320ish, 1.23, 1.2290 below that 1.2260

players still missing epiphany about BoE's hikings
too rich imo but once they come to, GBP is going to unwind rapido

Mtl JP  14:03:56 GMT - 05/11/2022  
EURO 1.0558
bear bias inside 1.05 - 1.06 bracket

res 1.0575/85
sup 1.0520/00

Mtl JP  13:32:15 GMT - 05/11/2022  
updating the FED's mushroom farming file
"it" = money printing during the depths of the pandemic
“I actually don't think that the Fed overdid it,” Bostic (Harvard (BA)
Stanford (MA, PhD)) told Yahoo Finance in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in Amelia Island, Florida. (tuesday)

GVI Forex 12:52:55 GMT - 05/11/2022  
BTC sub-30K => the pain trade

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex 12:47:00 GMT - 05/11/2022  
0.3% m/m vs 0.,2% exp
8.3% y/y vs 8.1% exp
core 6.2% y/y vs 6.0% exp

PAR  11:45:49 GMT - 05/11/2022  
Nobody believes Lagarde anymore.

Mtl JP  10:47:53 GMT - 05/11/2022  
CME , fwiw, indicates practical 100% that FED raises in june

Mtl JP  10:17:52 GMT - 05/11/2022  
EURO 1.0560
christine trying FED gang's mushroom farming tactic
from looks of player reaction: needs more practice
ECB's Lagarde cements expectations for upcoming rate hike

(Reuters) -The European Central Bank is likely to end its bond-buying stimulus programme early in the third quarter of this year, followed by a rate hike that could come just "a few weeks" later, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday. .../

Mtl JP  10:05:12 GMT - 05/11/2022  
12:30 GMT - us CPI expt: 8.4% vs 8.5% prev
risk is shorts are covering
odds of market crash: lower
odds of market rally: up

Mtl JP  09:48:46 GMT - 05/11/2022  
in the middle
april 23 -> may 10th reviewing top domestic priority
* President Joe Biden said that cooling prices are his top domestic priority, even as Wall Street braces for another inflation report north of 8%.

* The president also said that the White House is in the middle of a review of tariffs imposed against China during former President Donald Trump’s tenure and could opt to drop them.

JP 13:29 GMT April 23, 2022
priceless shameless
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday said it was worth considering taking steps to lower U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods given the "desirable effects" such a move could have on lowering U.S. inflation, which has hit 40-year highs this year.

"We want to do everything that we can to lower inflation," Yellen told Bloomberg TV

Biden says White House could drop Trump China tariffs to lower consumer prices

Mtl JP  00:59:51 GMT - 05/11/2022  
Waller: Now is the time for rate hikes because economy 'can take it'

Mtl JP  00:38:42 GMT - 05/11/2022  
USDJPY 130.27
us 10yr 2.981%
still inside 130 - 131 range
looking for s/t trade idea(s)

Mtl JP  17:14:32 GMT - 05/10/2022  
GBP 1.2305
continue to trade from short side
res 1.2375
sup 1.23, 1.2260
below trgts 1.2075-ish

Mtl JP  16:53:28 GMT - 05/10/2022  
somebody is still granting credit
Total household debt increased by $266 billion in the first quarter of 2022, the New York Federal Reserve said Tuesday ... reaching $15.84 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve said in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit Tuesday. That’s an increase of $1.7 trillion from the end of 2019

Mtl JP  16:30:37 GMT - 05/10/2022  
I now consider clicking the CB 15:39 link to be
a mistake

SnP priceaction more interesting

PAR 16:16:11 GMT - 05/10/2022  
Biden has another plan. Again?

dc CB  15:45:54 GMT - 05/10/2022  
Tipping points are thresholds at which small changes can lead to dramatic shifts

Trading tips????
guess who else is all over CNBC today????

dc CB  15:39:01 GMT - 05/10/2022  
Watch Live: President Biden Explains (Again) Why

Mtl JP  15:18:46 GMT - 05/10/2022  
SnP 3966 plumbing near today's low, testing

Israel MacroMicro  15:14:31 GMT - 05/10/2022  
I joined viies with NQ @ 12180, for few days at least

Mtl JP  14:45:00 GMT - 05/10/2022  
50-50 hints for new trading ideas: tipping points
(at own risk: can ... or maybe not)
"The annual forecast uses the best prediction systems from international climate centers to produce practical information for policymakers."

Tipping points are thresholds at which small changes can lead to dramatic shifts in Earth’s entire life support system.

‘It’s a 50-50 call’: The Earth is close to crossing a key temperature threshold within 5 years

Israel MacroMicro  14:31:55 GMT - 05/10/2022  

that was the last one for today, I wonder how such would impact DAX

Israel MacroMicro  14:24:07 GMT - 05/10/2022  


Israel MacroMicro  14:05:56 GMT - 05/10/2022  




and more and more and more repeating all the quoted above

Mtl JP  13:59:11 GMT - 05/10/2022  
USDx 103.75
with williams and barkin yaks out of the way
same time as yellen peddles 3-yr paper
will yak waller and kashkari
and in their dust will yak
mester and bostic later

euro 1.0555
obviously, watson, puppy is in some kind of range waiting for who knows what
odds are that it ll break south before it breaks north

res 1.0590/00
sup 1.0535ish - 1.05

Israel MacroMicro  10:30:18 GMT - 05/10/2022  
key words and of value: 'sofar avoided'

JP, did you buy the Qindex narrative about $CVX to $255 and the best was to buy SPOT yesterday, as Qindex suggested, right?

anyway, always keep some cash aside so you can afford Botox injections in case the markets slap your face and you still insist on the younger looks :)

Mtl JP  10:23:10 GMT - 05/10/2022  
CB overlord magnanimity
for the record:
BoE's bailey been saying he won’t take a pay rise this year
and most of his staff only getting raises of 1.5%.

earlier "workers" at Banco Central do Brasil went on strike over pay
just as the chief bottlewasher Roberto Campos Neto went on a miami holiday

Mtl JP  10:12:10 GMT - 05/10/2022  
so crash from peek under 4K sofar avoided
GAP still alive

Mtl JP  09:42:16 GMT - 05/10/2022  
EURO 1.0562
the ECB cuts around 3,700 paychecks
lagarde is fighting inflation from becoming entrenched through upward wage spiral.

rumours and speculation are currently swirling around that lagard's ECB will hike key interest rate in july (to fight inflation and in the interest of price-stability)

Mtl JP  08:59:55 GMT - 05/10/2022  
for the record
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes the U.S. financial system is in working order, but that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s Covid-19 lockdowns are making some goods more expensive. - MAY 9 2022

Yellen says financial system working well despite ‘potential for continued volatility’

Mtl JP  08:53:54 GMT - 05/10/2022  
CB 00:19 dog "Traders"
in the crypto-world it appears that IF you have money to pay to push your trade ahead in the line of other "investor"s / "holders" who are trying to becone non-holders ...

* Bitcoin is off nearly 55% from its November peak, and 40% of holders are now underwater on their investments, according to new data from Glassnode.

* In the last month alone, 15.5% of all bitcoin wallets fell into an unrealized loss, as the world’s most popular cryptocurrency plunged to the $31,000 level, tracking tech stocks lower.

* Bitcoin’s close correlation to the Nasdaq challenges the argument that the cryptocurrency functions as an inflation hedge.

40% of bitcoin investors are now underwater, new data shows

dc CB  00:19:47 GMT - 05/10/2022  
20 something "Traders".

in 15 seconds.

dc CB  00:12:58 GMT - 05/10/2022  
This Week
· May 8
If Congress does not approve the White House’s request for an additional $22.5 billion in COVID emergency aid, Dr. Ashish Jha warns that U.S. is "going to run out of treatments, we’re going to run out of testing.”

Mtl JP  22:59:17 GMT - 05/09/2022  
... talking it back ...
how discombobulated is the indispensable nation's whole "leadership" ménage down from its "commander in chief" through cnn, nyt, nbc etc etc when one sees follow-up "intelligence" plums (10 days) like this:
Biden tells Congress to 'immediately' pass $40 billion Ukrainian aid bill
- cnn ,May 9, 2022
President Joe Biden called on Congress to "immediately" pass a nearly $40 billion Ukrainian aid bill, warning for the first time that existing aid will run out in "approximately ten days." "Get it to my desk in the next few days," Biden said in a statement. ... "We cannot afford delay in this vital war effort," Biden said in the statement. "Hence, I am prepared to accept that these two measures move separately, so that the Ukrainian aid bill can get to my desk right away."

Mtl JP  22:15:40 GMT - 05/09/2022  
yaa... it should have ....
"should" should not exist
from the infinite fountain of inspiration and well of knowledge
blast from the past:
Buyback Blackout Period Is Over, And 10 More Reasons Why Goldman Calls The End Of The Market Carnage

11 reasons

Mtl JP  18:34:07 GMT - 05/09/2022  
SnP plumbing new low now
lets see if it s just a bad day
and not a bad life (for some)

london red  18:29:18 GMT - 05/09/2022  
a lot of wall st money came in around 30k. gonna start to hurt if goes below there. gap to 20k poss

Mtl JP  18:28:47 GMT - 05/09/2022  
USDCAD 1.2996
puppy bulldozing thru some longish-term pricelevels -
lets see if this qualifies as renge breakout
tech res in the 1.3050 zone

Mtl JP  18:21:27 GMT - 05/09/2022  
BTC 31.3K gyrating around (-8% in last 24hrs) as it does
impresses me how the trading on margin crowd
lives through it

Mtl JP  18:04:26 GMT - 05/09/2022  
4K: veni, vidi, ... wham!

Mtl JP  17:55:04 GMT - 05/09/2022  
low so far 3997.50

Mtl JP  17:23:41 GMT - 05/09/2022  
not seeing much eager beavers gunning to close GAP on my feed

Mtl JP  17:00:14 GMT - 05/09/2022  
EURO 1.0577 (slightly off it high)
puppy huffin-n-puffing trying to breach 1.06 so looks like 90/00 r Res for now.
some could think ECB is lining up a hike bigger than 0.10

S 1.056-ish, 1.05, 1.0480/70

london red  16:50:17 GMT - 05/09/2022  
JP, they switched from bonds to apple on the rate scare. i bet that move has to reverse before market can bounce.

Mtl JP  16:38:01 GMT - 05/09/2022  
apple ... amazon ...

london red  16:21:57 GMT - 05/09/2022  
you got the first gap on snp filled, gazprom started pumping again after a few days delay, oil down and yields finally started to react to falling stocks. i think the last stands need to be taken down to put a floor in. that means apple has to fall and that money move back into bonds.

GVI Forex 15:58:41 GMT - 05/09/2022  
Searching through the news, this is all I have come up with to explain fx and equities coming off respective lows:

Ukraine President Zelensky aide Zhovkya reiterates readiness to meet Russian President Putin

london red  15:35:12 GMT - 05/09/2022  
weak bounce says they want more 3960 maybe.
fed speaks hawkish so that mkt prices in hawlish. that way actual fed funds dont need to go up as high. first day in a while yields lower as stocks lower

Mtl JP  15:26:38 GMT - 05/09/2022  
red 12:11 i do not trust / believe kashkari

their main concern is the integrity of the financial system
I put more belief in "We can and must safeguard the financial system" - yellen October 9, 2013 than in anything else (less in "can" than "must")

Mtl JP  15:21:08 GMT - 05/09/2022  
ha! confident about pain now
Kashkari confident inflation can come down, but not without some pain
- reports Jeff Cox

reference to pain reminds me of Band-Aid tactic
Natural law says that destruction takes a fraction of time something took to build

Luckily market destruction is, historically, also a fast process.
Looking at SnP500
From low of 2174 on 22 march 2020 to 4808 high Jan 04 2022 it took
21 months 13 days or 653 days

Pain-minimizing Band-Aid to market destruction is about that "rip": faster than able to react to get out
IF 4000 breaks not rocket science to estimate length of time scenarios to puke say 25% to 3,000
take 653 as base and apply 1,2,3 .. 5, 6 ..x % to estimate the ETA

london red  12:11:25 GMT - 05/09/2022  
feds kashkari says not focused on stock market, focused on inflation

Mtl JP  09:07:19 GMT - 05/09/2022  
DLRx N of 104 = hot

Mtl JP  08:49:04 GMT - 05/09/2022  
BTC $33,360.61, $33,170 L, $34,845.28 H

"Stock futures slip as Wall Street attempts to stabilize after rollercoaster week"
as smoothly as pulling a silk handkerchief out of breast pocket and drifting down

10-year Treasury yield hits 3.17% with inflation and economic growth in the spotlight

spotlight: (also time for putting on Depends)
"Biden will deliver remarks on inflation Tuesday, a White House official said, as his administration looks to further address one of the key economic concerns for voters heading into November's midterm elections.

"He'll detail his plan to fight inflation and lower costs for working families, and contrast his approach with Congressional Republicans' ultra-MAGA plan to raise taxes on 75 million American families and threaten to sunset programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid," the official said in an email" - cnn

Mtl JP  20:05:49 GMT - 05/08/2022  
BTC $34,600-ish
low over week-end: 33,376 (at coindesk)

at coindesk

Mtl JP  11:53:40 GMT - 05/08/2022  
dc CB - think u d be getting some tax back if days of no service (shutdown) ?
House Republicans are seeking to defund the Biden administration's controversial Disinformation Governance Board, and conservative members are eager to threaten a shutdown to do so if necessary.

Conservatives eye government shutdown to ax Biden DHS 'disinformation' board

dc CB  00:59:11 GMT - 05/08/2022  
Mtl JP 09:28 GMT 05/06/2022 - My Profile
"Never would have thought in a million years that would be it."
They are not even thinking about rising interest rates, rather:
"We must rise up to force accountability using a diversity of tactics."
ANNOUNCING: Walk-by Wednesday, May 11, 2022!
At the homes of the six extremist justices, three in Virginia and three in Maryland.
Ruth Sent Us

will be interesting to see how that goes.

Mtl JP  12:57:12 GMT - 05/07/2022  
why ... they defend ... why ?
the committee's decision and jerome's smudging bs on market's windshield:
Two of the Federal Reserve’s most hawkish policy makers defended the central bank on Friday against charges that it had fallen well behind the curve in fighting inflation.

* Waller, Bullard say Fed guidance has had substantial impact
* Barkin declines to take 75 basis-point hike off the table

Fed Officials Defend Policies, Say Forward Guidance Is Working

Mtl JP  00:31:36 GMT - 05/07/2022  
today's kashkari some mushroom feedings
Fed's Kashkari says supply chain progress key to avoiding recession
The Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates more aggressively and risk a recession if supply chain issues don't begin to ebb, .. and reiterated that policymakers are keenly watching how far rates will have to rise above the neutral level.

Reuters on
Fed's Kashkari: We may have to push long-term real rates into restrictive territory
The Federal Reserve may have to push long-term real rates into a contractionary stance in order to help bring inflation down, Kashkari said on Friday.

Seeking Alpha
Fed's Kashkari says 'we are close to neutral', while Powell assures opposite
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Friday that the neutral rate, or the rate of a stable economy, is close to being achieved, though ...

Wall Street Journal
Fed Must Deliver on Monetary-Policy Guidance, Kashkari Says
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Friday that it’s critical the central bank delivers on its rate-rise guidance and balance-sheet reduction plans, which have already caused longer term borrowing costs to rise.

Kashkari defends Fed's rate-setters, says they're on track to bring down inflation
The Minneapolis Fed president directly addressed critics of the central bank two days after the latest rate hike.

Fed’s Kashkari Signals Comfort With Some Cooling in Job Market
The Federal Reserve’s most dovish policy maker signaled he’s comfortable with some cooling in the U.S. labor market that could result from the central bank’s efforts to bring down high inflation.

Fed's Kashkari: We need supply chain issues to ebb to help us avoid recession
The Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates more aggressively and risk recession if supply chain issues don't begin to ebb on their own, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Friday.

Fed's Kashkari: Given long-term real rates influence demand for credit the most, Fed already near neutral
Kashkari: Fed is not behind the curve
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, argued on Friday that the US central bank is neither

International Financing Review
US FED - Fed’s Kashkari says policy might have to shift to constraint if supply chain mess doesn’t unwind swiftly

Mtl JP  23:36:31 GMT - 05/06/2022  
a peep from the garbage heap of history so now one quasi mushroom feeder:
Clarida Says Rates of at Least 3.5% Will Be Needed to Slow Inflation - todays wsj

...over the next year to at least 3.5% or to even higher...

I wonder IF it is just his opinion or IF he was goaded and guided to spout that.

for reference: ..."the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate"... May 04, 2022

clarida believes ... in restrictive territory

dc CB  19:36:22 GMT - 05/06/2022  

Monday is May 9----Holiday in Russia---celebrating the Winning of WWII--the Defeat of the Third Reich---aka the Nazis.

Caribbean! Rafe...  18:01:15 GMT - 05/06/2022  
Tanks overflowing... FI is great with better rates, from a few months ago way before the herds... anticipating massive stampedes into FI in coming months, hence hunkering down for rate wars to begin, but by the time herds reach then FILO... First in Look Out!.

dc CB  17:43:04 GMT - 05/06/2022  
don't forget about filling up these tanks.
planting is only beginning ---

harvesting wheat

Mtl JP  17:24:54 GMT - 05/06/2022  
10-yr giving up 3.105% now
rather lethargic sofar eurdlr and stocks response

dc CB  17:23:16 GMT - 05/06/2022  
Taking it back???

The Pentagon on Friday denied that it provided Ukrainian forces with intelligence that led to the sinking of the Russian Black Sea warship Moskva, which was struck reportedly by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles on April 14 and marked the most disastrous single Russian loss to date.

"We did not provide Ukraine with specific targeting information for the Moskva," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement, following the night prior NBC cited US officials who said that intelligence-sharing led to the missile cruiser's sinking.

He added: "We were not involved in the Ukrainians' decision to strike the ship or in the operation they carried out," and that, "We had no prior knowledge of Ukraine's intent to target the ship. The Ukrainians have their own intelligence capabilities to track and target Russian naval vessels, as they did in this case."

Mtl JP  16:58:16 GMT - 05/06/2022  
alternately time 's probably not far when it ll be more efficient to drink cases of beer and pee in the tank

Mtl JP  16:53:59 GMT - 05/06/2022  
diesel ... expect higher
my diesel was $1.99cad maybe a week ago, ten it went $2.099, yesty it went $2.499 (near the US border - in Mtl it's been seen N of $3)
rig takes approx 300gals or 1150L to fill. The rig goes about 13Km/3.8L (8 miles/gal). The fuel in the tank is worth more than the monthly on it.

Greta and her gang of followers are going delirious.

dc CB  16:31:04 GMT - 05/06/2022  
By Michael Every of Rabobank
' “Don't you love farce? My fault, I fear.
I thought that you'd want what I want... Sorry, my dear!
And where are the clowns? Send in the clowns
Don't bother, they're here.”

US officials keep boasting about they are helping kill Russian generals and sink Russian ships. This is dangerously clownish. Yes, everyone knows they are. No, you don’t rub Russia’s face in it in public, because it risks a backlash that will escalate tensions even more.

Yesterday also saw the US announce that it would begin to buy back 60m barrels of oil to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve – at higher prices than it sold from it at.

Elsewhere, the Supreme Court is hidden behind fences, like the White House recently; the FDA has strictly limited the use of the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine over links to heart problems; the New York Times is arguing apartheid South Africa had too much free speech, and implies Elon Musk might turn the US into apartheid South Africa too if he lets Twitter give free reign to people (to voice concerns over Covid vaccines’ links to heart problems ahead of the FDA?); and the FTC is floating an anti-trust case against Twitter now it has new ownership, even though no M&A was involved. The last thing the polarized US needs is a spike in energy and food prices and a collapse in 401Ks. Yet it will arguably have to have one of the two, and it might get both.

The Last Thing The Polarized US Needs

Mtl JP  15:49:30 GMT - 05/06/2022  
no less than 5 gang members
showing publicly their mugs today

probably of none to little market-moving consequence in light
of both time and topic

VIX continues to hang around 32.3 up+1.18 (+3.78%)
against 33.40 prev high

(relative high VIX readings are still interpreted to mean that players are bothered by what they perceive as uncertainty in and about the market)

Israel MacroMicro  15:18:46 GMT - 05/06/2022  
30yrs yields > 3.2%

mortgage did noticeable move during recent months too

home builders: there is money to make there, the "lucky" ones will pick the profitable side of trade right.

Mtl JP  14:17:53 GMT - 05/06/2022  
DLRx 103.45
euro 1.0585
- bias: neithe up nor down atm

puppy would probably need to breach N of 1.06 and hold it to turn things around for it.

Res 1.06, 1.064ish
Sup 1.055ish, 1.05, 1.047

Israel MacroMicro  10:58:30 GMT - 05/06/2022  
EUR/USD for the near term for the ones bullish with USD in this pair:

as yesterday delivered daily outside candle, STOP at yesterdays high is the ONLY reasonable approach for active traders. I do not see a point to risk more in case you are looking to remain with bullish USD bias for the coming few days. there is a point a successful trader must tell himself 'I am wrong with my price action bias and lose no more!'

have a great weekend

Mtl JP  10:12:56 GMT - 05/06/2022  
sufficiently high prices are self-correcting (theory)
needed: "sufficiently high" definition

Mtl JP  09:55:20 GMT - 05/06/2022  
VIX 32.83 (5:42 AM)
heading into NFP

Mtl JP  09:28:31 GMT - 05/06/2022  
"Never would have thought in a million years that would be it."
They are not even thinking about rising interest rates, rather:
"We must rise up to force accountability using a diversity of tactics."

ANNOUNCING: Walk-by Wednesday, May 11, 2022!

At the homes of the six extremist justices, three in Virginia and three in Maryland.

Ruth Sent Us

Israel MacroMicro  20:28:02 GMT - 05/05/2022  
not dear cheap whiskey addict with redneck mindset,

red neck + cheap whiskey == never get context right

how Japan investing in USA firms to raise NG output while spot price > $8 is in context of prices > 15yrs ago?

fertilizers trade end of 2021 reached this forum not by redneck addicted to cheap whiskey. get a life zero-hedge screamer.

dc CB  19:43:19 GMT - 05/05/2022  
dear capt'n obvious...
you probably were still in grade school, but I suggest you check a (US) natgas chart from the early 2000---up to the GFC crash in 2008. I owned a house in NY that was NatGas---so did most as the northern suburbs were older and established and the pipes were in the ground.

2005-2006 $15-16---wholesale.

Mtl JP  17:58:45 GMT - 05/05/2022  
no bids - que passa ?

Israel MacroMicro  17:37:42 GMT - 05/05/2022  
natty natty NG, when Japan invests to raise US output while price is > $8 ... natty natty can do nutty nutty the coming years.

think about it...

Israel MacroMicro  17:35:28 GMT - 05/05/2022  
frankly, when I knew that rosy shades was out it was a relief for me. he does not deserve to get victimized by illusive attacks :)

I think, from the other hand, that second bullish wave within a bear market will gather momentum soon.

do not get WFAKed by the markets :)

Mtl JP  17:11:53 GMT - 05/05/2022  
DLRx 103.82
chief mushroom feeder tried to tell players what he and "they" think "neutral" rate is. well .... what do u know: players are already pricing funds near / at the top of jerome's the "somewhere in-between" range.

So What does that mean ?
- that the odds of USD rampaging N are likely lower than they have been up to now. I am not shorting the USD (costs too much); still prefer selectively buying it but also am lowering my uPside speed expectations.

Israel MacroMicro  12:31:56 GMT - 05/05/2022  
for scalpers

long 1.2375 with 35 pips stop

good luck

Israel MacroMicro  12:25:10 GMT - 05/05/2022  
anyway, sub 1.23 if seen if where we add cable longs

good luck

Israel MacroMicro  11:31:52 GMT - 05/05/2022  

Entry: 1.2430 Target: 1.2830 Stop:
let us see if GutIcator® works :)

Mtl JP  10:01:58 GMT - 05/05/2022  
but watson ...

Mtl JP  09:58:23 GMT - 05/05/2022  
... stocks jumped ... (history)
but what will they do next ? asks the male trader
gaming jerome and his committee is a bit
like a guy on a date with a woman
He wonders IF he ll get lucky. The woman knows already.

guaranteed 100%

GVI Forex 08:52:03 GMT - 05/05/2022  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Saikat Chatterjee.

Market reaction after the U.S. Federal Reserve's 50 basis-point interest rate rise was a classic case of "buy the rumour and sell the fact". The dollar weakened, Treasury yields declined across the board and U.S. stocks jumped by almost 3%, its biggest rise in two years.

Morning Bid: The real balancing act

Israel MacroMicro  18:49:35 GMT - 05/04/2022  
Israel MacroMicro 16:18 GMT May 4, 2022
mkt: Reply
USD/CHF == overstretched

the money with selling USD is there / imo

sweet :)

Mtl JP  18:10:06 GMT - 05/04/2022  
according to jeff cox "the surge in prices has necessitated a dramatic rethink in monetary policy"

I used to think the world would be better off without CBanks
Now I am re-thinking that: who provides better comedy and laughing material for the money ?

Mtl JP  18:03:07 GMT - 05/04/2022  
half a point
makes for wet noodle trade

Mtl JP  17:56:18 GMT - 05/04/2022  
"The economy can take the rate increases that we're going to be making," Powell 2022 03 02


trading the FOMC as if
"Powder is scarce and must not be wasted. Do not fire until you see the whites of their eyes. Then aim low. Aim at their waistbands, aim at the handsome coats; pick off the officers."

Mtl JP  17:38:56 GMT - 05/04/2022  
fresh from her optometrist
yellen says ...
1 hour ago
Yellen: Fed will need to be skillful, lucky to lower inflation
United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Wednesday that the Fed would "need to be skillful and also lucky to" lower the inflation. During an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Yellen stressed that inflation "has been very high," however ...
1 hour ago
Yellen Sees Solid Growth, Possible ‘Soft Landing’ for U.S. Economy
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she expects solid growth in the coming year, with a possible “soft landing” for the economy as the Federal Reserve moves to bring down inflation. “I do believe we’re going to see solid growth ...

MarketWatch on
2 hours ago
Yellen says she sees 'solid growth' in year ahead but also risks to outlook
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday said she sees "solid growth" in the coming year but also risks to the economic outlook. Speaking to the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council meeting, Yellen said inflation is "too high" and that a potential ...

Forex Factory
2 hours ago
Yellen: Negative Q1 GDP not good underlying sign of economy

Wall Street Journal
3 hours ago
Janet Yellen Says U.S. Economy Remains Strong
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy remains strong despite the fact that it shrank in the first quarter of this year, adding that inflation is too high and needs to be reduced. She said the war in Ukraine could do economic damage in ...

Israel MacroMicro  16:18:28 GMT - 05/04/2022  
USD/CHF == overstretched

the money with selling USD is there / imo

Israel MacroMicro  16:14:54 GMT - 05/04/2022  
yak-yak express left the station:


Mtl JP  15:51:24 GMT - 05/04/2022  
atm in the very short-term it is as if players are expecting the FED to be more hawk than dove

Mtl JP  15:36:06 GMT - 05/04/2022  
favoring parasites
Education Department forgives student loans of more than 110,000 people in public service - cnbc

Mtl JP  14:04:09 GMT - 05/04/2022  
PAR hahaha the games people play: schnabel piszing on ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos pinpointed July as a possible moment for a lift-off in interest rates, though he had said it’s not “likely.”:
“It’s not enough to talk now -- we have to act,” she said in an interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt published Tuesday. “From today’s perspective, I think a rate hike in July is possible.” - Schnabel, 50-year old German, is considered one of the Executive Board’s most influential members as alleged by Carolynn Look via bbrg

ECB’s Schnabel Says Rate Hike to Tame Inflation May Come in July

Mtl JP  13:50:29 GMT - 05/04/2022  
EURO 1.0543 (as I type)
'tis the time when all is quiet before the post-FOMC decision and jerome's mushroom feeding

puppy's oscillating and wallowing inside ~50 pip range

I am biased down, i.e prefer trading from the short side
Res 1.0550, ~1.0575
Sup 1.05, 1.0472

Varna 12:35:25 GMT - 05/04/2022  
This could replace the war headlines only in US but that's not a surprise. US is so close minded country.

Varna 12:32:26 GMT - 05/04/2022  
The fight for every single vote is the same everywhere and it's at all cause.

Varna 12:30:45 GMT - 05/04/2022  
What a boring channel.

Varna 12:29:19 GMT - 05/04/2022  
This dwarf must be stopped at every cause.

dc CB  05:19:06 GMT - 05/04/2022  
Song for them's announcement

Then the take back not what you thot Presser

In Spite of Ourselves----- That Guy who runs the

dc CB  03:10:49 GMT - 05/04/2022  
Today's Racing Form>

.About six months until the midterm elections, a leaked Supreme Court draft opinion signals the potential for Roe v. Wade to be overturned after five decades. The news sparked speculation that if the highest court in the land rules to overturn abortion as a "sacred" right to women, it could spark political gyrations ahead of the elections in November, and politicians on the Left were quick to pounce.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research tweeted the question: "Will the Roe decision impact the midterms?"

Bianco points to political future odds on PredictIt have seen a "massive spike in volume" following the leak.

SCOTUS Leak Sparks Rise In Democrats' Odds Of Controlling Senate/House After Midterms

Mtl JP  23:33:23 GMT - 05/03/2022  
curse of the "boo-yah!" ?
Jim Cramer defends Jay Powell’s inflation policy ahead of Fed rate decision – ‘He’s winning’ - cnbc

dc CB  21:42:32 GMT - 05/03/2022  
CNN recognizes History....

May 9, known as "Victory Day" inside Russia, commemorates the country's defeat of the Nazis in 1945.

It is marked by a military parade in Moscow, and Russian leaders traditionally stand on the tomb of Vladimir Lenin in Red Square to observe it.
"May 9 is designed to show off to the home crowd, to intimidate the opposition and to please the dictator of the time," said James Nixey, director of the Russia-Eurasia Programme at Chatham House told CNN.

May 9 is a big day for Russia

dc CB  21:29:03 GMT - 05/03/2022  

Crude -3.479mm (-200k exp)

Cushing +978k

Gasoline -4.5mm (-300k exp) - biggest draw since Oct 2021

Distillates -4.457mm (-1.5mm exp)

dc CB  18:16:51 GMT - 05/03/2022  
putin's fault

Bloomberg reports Gulf Coast refiners exported 2.09 million barrels a day of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in April, the highest level since oil analytics firm Vortexa began tracking trade data in 2016.

The majority of the exports went to Latin America.
In April, there was even an instance where at least one tanker from the Gulf Coast, loaded up with SPR sweet crude, ended up in Europe.

Meanwhile, a major pipeline connecting Gulf Coast refiners to East Coast (PADD 1) has run well below capacity. In return, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel stockpiles are at decade lows amid robust demand, sending prices sky-high.

Severe supply crunches have sent East Coast distillates inventories (including diesel and heating oil) to the lowest level since 1996.
local prices near the MD-PA border 50m north of DC
Reg: $4.25/gal ---- Diesel: $5.77gal.

Waht's up with this---liar liar pants on fire.

Mtl JP  17:21:53 GMT - 05/03/2022  
... "egregiously wrong" ...
I guess that depends who has monopoly on "truth" at any given time
the headlines are currently mild
- sofar at least the size of the crowd is small
-- crowd not marching on to the building , waving torches and swinging ropes

and ... sofar ...
eurdlr laguishing in its narrow consolidation

Israel MacroMicro  16:38:46 GMT - 05/03/2022  
sex or school?

many young ladies with round belly will be the cause of that demonstration. you get a brother?

dc CB  16:36:56 GMT - 05/03/2022  
thank you captain Obvious.
But you miss the real irony of all these young people chanting---My Body, My Choice---outside of the Supreme Court today. They are all Vaxed because they Have to be to go to school, and they are forced to wear masks(which come and go for no reason), and are willing to Vax cards.

Israel MacroMicro  15:53:50 GMT - 05/03/2022  
it is a scam by the democrats to bring young voters for the mid term elections. you vote democrats and get freedom over your body. what else can make them to gain votes among the first time voters?

dc CB  15:43:32 GMT - 05/03/2022  
as seen
(manufacturing consent---Edward Bernays founding father of the theory of propaganda and public relations. )

the new meme

dc CB  15:35:22 GMT - 05/03/2022  
about a week ago I posted that the Ukraine/Russo was would be out of the headlines. You asked what I thought would replace it.
Well today we found out----Roe v Wade---
Never would have thought in a million years that would be it.

go figure

Mtl JP  14:12:52 GMT - 05/03/2022  
EURO 1.0556ish
no 100% guaranteed bs
bias: down
res 1.0570, 1.06
Sup below 1.05 at 1.0472

USD is mixed vs ccy partners as odds are most of current news is now discounted.

The theme of "peak inflation" momentum seems to be the speculative ingredient du jour.
IF jerome even just casts a shifting eye at "growth" and utters some poetry about peaking inflation
odds are DLR cracks to the downside.

Mtl JP  10:51:51 GMT - 05/03/2022  
jeff cox on the crew whose consistent record is one of consistent errors and misses:
* Markets expect the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to announce a half-percentage point increase in its benchmark interest rate.

* Fears are growing over how aggressive the central bank will have to be to tame inflation.

* “A recession at this stage is almost inevitable,” former Fed vice chair Roger Ferguson told CNBC.

Fears of a Fed mistake grow as this week’s anticipated interest rate hike looms

Mtl JP  09:40:45 GMT - 05/03/2022  
humble pie ?
the characters that parade around as CBankers and policymakers have no shame, they all scream is our work is not done we need to do more moRE !

better to think of them and treat them as useful idiot tool

Mtl JP  09:26:34 GMT - 05/03/2022  
Ball Divining 101
rip or bounce next

GVI Forex 09:08:58 GMT - 05/03/2022  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Sujata Rao.

First Sweden, now Australia. Two central banks that had said they saw no need for rate hikes until 2023 or 2024 have eaten humble pie in the space of a week.

Morning Bid: Humble pie on central bankers' menu

Mtl JP  22:44:05 GMT - 05/02/2022  
Gold 1863
one could think 10-yr around 3% and + is making Gold puke some in terms of the dlr

Mtl JP  22:38:37 GMT - 05/02/2022  
10-yr US 10-YR 2.977 UNCH
opinions are like donkeyholes: everyone has one
so below NOT to be taken for "advice" despite the name
as managing one's risk is personal matter:
Market has gone 'too far' at pricing in Fed rate hikes, says Mohamed El-Erian

Watch: Market has gone "too far" at pricing in Fed rate hikes, @elerianm

Mtl JP  18:00:26 GMT - 05/02/2022  
EURO 1.0493
tickity tik tik pickity pip pip
euro down some = dlr up some = stocks down some

that is how it should normally be

Mtl JP  15:50:00 GMT - 05/02/2022  
“There is only one cause of unhappiness: the false beliefs you have in your head, beliefs so widespread, so commonly held, that it never occurs to you to question them.” ― Anthony de Mello

bill has been a petty thief and liar as far back as I remember him from his days peddling DOS. Delusional and maybe beyond help

Bill Gates: ‘I’m grieving the same way Melinda is’

Mtl JP  15:19:23 GMT - 05/02/2022  
DLRx 103.60
according to jerome's last crystal ball guidance:
the economy can handle rate hikes
agree / not ?

Mtl JP  15:03:07 GMT - 05/02/2022  
GBP 1.2529, eurgbp 0.8495
Lineup peasants, elites have a new 'splenation for you:
Bank of England
Hot off the press! Bank of England economists
have got early copies of their new book, Can’t We Just Print More Money? The book, published on 19 May, uses everyday examples to explain how economics works. Pre-order here: (only RRP: £14.99)

how economics works

Mtl JP  14:29:38 GMT - 05/02/2022  
EURO 1.0530
what makes me leery is that probably most players see EURO's pricing prospects in very similar light, namely:
Bias: prefer selling pops (i.e bear stance)
Res 1.0570-ish, 1.06, 1,0650
Sup 1.05, 1.0470
and that even every critter living under a rock is eyeballing 1.0350-ish

Mtl JP  14:14:34 GMT - 05/02/2022  
DLRx 103.50
week of toilet overflow
Policy decisions:
RBA, Fed, BoE, BCBrazil, BCChile, Norges Bank
- NFP on Friday

re the FED: 50-pt priced in, jerome needs to let it be known that he and his gang are tilted to do more moRE and that they are eager to cull their balance sheet

Mtl JP  10:38:29 GMT - 05/02/2022  
georgieva, yellen and a bunch of other "experts" been yakking about lower (also global) GDP .
last week US GDP report printed negative.

US 2-YR 2.709 +0.009
US 5-YR 2.947 +0.035
US 10-YR 2.92 +0.035
US 30-YR 2.987 +0.041
sofar yield are holding uP

there probably needs to be created a new perception of
some change in some macro driver

Mtl JP  10:26:55 GMT - 05/02/2022  
DLRx 103.39
odds of 75bps ... poof! ?
looks like, once again, players are onto the FED
as they have priced in 50-pt hike

soooo ... for the FED to live up to its "aggressive fighter" of inflation reputation they have been advertising

GVI Forex 09:24:34 GMT - 05/02/2022  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Saikat Chatterjee.

Hopes raised by latest U.S. CPI numbers that surging inflation may finally be peaking appear to have finally halted a rout in bond markets, meaning even hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve's James Bullard have not caused a stir.

Morning Bid: Peak hawkishness?

hk AB   04:39:45 GMT - 05/02/2022  
Indian type "buy the rumour, sell the fact" works vely well.

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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