A look at the day ahead in markets from Sujata Rao
Indexes based on the views of purchasing managers, essentially the folks who buy products for companies, give a comprehensive indication of the state of an economy. So, with recession worries swirling, advance readings for June, due Thursday across the developed world, have taken on particular significance.
a very good (i.e good quality) baaaadd sign:
-
(Bbrg) JPMorgan Lays Off Hundreds in Home Lending After Rate Surge
* Hundreds more to be reassigned as demand for home loans cools
* Biggest US bank cites ‘cyclical changes’ in mortgage market
Mtl JP 15:41:34 GMT - 06/22/2022
powell says
-
* Powell says Fed ‘can’t fail’ on its task to get inflation back down to 2% rate
* Powell says goal of a soft landing has been made ‘significantly more challenging’ in last few months
Mtl JP 14:49:55 GMT - 06/22/2022
USDCHF .9594
dlr not soo tuff afterall ?
Mtl JP 14:47:32 GMT - 06/22/2022
or if "risk" players bag some long profits
before lunch
Mtl JP 14:46:25 GMT - 06/22/2022
EURO 1.0594
-
letsee if 1.06 holds Res
Mtl JP 14:34:50 GMT - 06/22/2022
11:37 -- jay u r 2 humble
Mtl JP 14:04:54 GMT - 06/22/2022
it's a game. game of pain tolerance
-
"I do think, at some point, this is going to be a bit of a waiting game," he added. "What the Russians can sustain and what Europe is going to be prepared to sustain." - biden
and ... d u stab on some long "risk" ?
got to be fast around 10 o'clock
react not rationalize
Mtl JP 13:50:59 GMT - 06/22/2022
a deluge of fed mushroom feeders today
-
powell, barkin, harker ...
blablabla clowns on titanic all's well we got them tools
EURO 1.0560
Res 1.0564 and 1.0568; N of 1.06 player tease ECB
Sup 1.05; 1.0470
GVI Forex11:37:45 GMT - 06/22/2022
US yields off sharply
GVI Forex09:15:57 GMT - 06/22/2022
A look at the day ahead in markets from Sujata Rao.
Rail strikes, the biggest in three decades, are thinning out office districts across Britain this week. Other professional groups, from barristers to postmen, also plan to hit the barricades in coming weeks to demand more pay read more .
DLRx 104.50; 10-YR 3.237%, "risk": looking pukey
feeeeelings, threats, pressings, independence
-
Reuters - Fed's Barkin backs 50 or 75 bps rate hike in July
"I am pretty comfortable with what Jay (Powell) said. ...He gave a range that feels pretty reasonable," Barkin
June 21, 2022 (Bloomberg) -- The US central bank should raise interest rates as fast as it can without causing undue harm to financial markets or the economy, said Barkin
Reuters - Fed to lift rates by 75 basis points in July, 50 bps in September - Reuters poll
The Federal Reserve will deliver another 75-basis-point interest rate hike in July, followed by a half-percentage-point rise in September, and won't scale back to quarter-percentage-point moves until November at the earliest, according to economists polled by Reuters. .../
Fortune - ‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini predicts a U.S. recession by the end of 2022—and long-term high inflation
Roubini said stagflation, a combination of high inflation and low economic growth, is also likely.
NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy tilt has prompted some of Wall Street's biggest banks to ramp up forecasts for a U.S. recession, threatening more downside for an already bruised stock market.
The S&P 500 index is already down about 21% this year .../.
Barron's - Inflation has become as much a political problem as an economic one.
Lawmakers will be pressing Powell on Wednesday, and again on Thursday when he faces the House Financial Services Committee, about inflation and the growing threat of a recession.
Mtl JP 22:00:28 GMT - 06/21/2022
more clowns joining the recession parade:
(Bloomberg) -- Delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading toward a recession.
larry sounds pissed:
-
Summers repeated his prior calls that the Fed’s task of tempering price gains is similar in scale to that of former Chair Paul Volcker, who had to engineer a deep recession and double-digit unemployment 40 years ago to get inflation under control.
“The US may need as severe monetary tightening as Paul Volcker pushed through in the late 1970s early 1980s,” Summers said.
He said the central bank should move away from providing communication to the public about the likely future course of monetary policy.
“The return to humility, the abandonment of forward guidance as a policy tool is entirely appropriate,” Summers said. “It is likely to be necessary to make much more difficult choices than yet contemplated between acceptance of slack and acceptance of sustained, above-target inflation.”
“In that way, I fear we are going to have both elements of secular stagnation and secular stagflation,” he said.
Mtl JP 10:28:47 GMT - 06/21/2022
poking the clowns
-
(Bloomberg) - Mon, June 20, 2022
Larry Summers Says US Needs 5% Jobless Rate for Five Years to Ease Inflation
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the US jobless rate would need to rise above 5% for a sustained period in order to curb inflation that’s running at the hottest pace in four decades.
“We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation -- in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment,” said Summers said in a speech in London Monday. “There are numbers that are remarkably discouraging relative to the Fed Reserve view.”
and WHY do we need to tame "inflation" ? because , experts with PhDs, tell us lowering inflation is a pre-condition to avoid recession.
Mtl JP 09:49:48 GMT - 06/21/2022
DLRx 103.75 - down some
"risk" uP some
GVI Forex09:36:00 GMT - 06/21/2022
A look at the day ahead in markets from Dhara Ranasinghe.
Last week's market turmoil that sparked the biggest weekly drop in world stocks since March 2020, has given way to a degree of calm. But don't bet on it lasting.
1.0522
as I have said many times, the EU is modern-day castle for european princes. ECB is nothing but political glue instrument designed to help prevent elements from leaving; only minor concern with things financial best practices.
here is lagarde aping draghi:
-
The European Central Bank is determined to nip “in the bud” any fragmentation in borrowing costs between eurozone countries, its president Christine Lagarde said on Monday, warning anyone doubting this was “making a big mistake”.
Lagarde said: “Fragmentation will be addressed if the risk of it arises; and it will be done so with the appropriate instruments, with the adequate flexibility; it will be effective; it will be proportionate; it will be within our mandate and anybody who doubts that determination will be making a big mistake.”
DLRx 104.23
-
Dollar puppy basically going no-where atm, maybe teeny bit flavour down.
when dlr hints / tilts down = "risk" slithers uP. usually.
but not much price violence on this holiday day.
With the lingering smell of unconditional and "all in" sulphur n fire verbal rockets by some FED officials qtn remains about the "transitionality" of such policymaker commitments in light that the FED gang does not think that its schizophrenique inflation fighting tactics will end-up in a soft landing.
On the other side is player perception and pricing of odds that the FED will lower inflation.
bullards yaks at 12:45; powell yaks on wednesday.
Mtl JP 10:33:35 GMT - 06/20/2022
players are like Cheshire cat looking at christine's “anti-fragmentation” device
GVI Forex09:17:58 GMT - 06/20/2022
A look at the day ahead in markets from Dhara Ranasinghe.
On top of surging inflation, rising interest rates and growing global recession risks, markets in Europe are waking up on Monday to the prospect of heightened uncertainty in France -
Juneteenth (short for “June Nineteenth”) marks the day when federal troops arrived in Galveston, Texas in 1865 to take control of the state and ensure that all enslaved people be freed.
janet says
-
* “We’ve had high inflation so far this year, and that locks in higher inflation for the rest of the year,” because
* reasons behind stubborn inflation are “global, not local,” and that
* gasoline tax holiday is “worth considering”
-- bbrg
in other words peasants: eat cake. for the rest of 2022
(not a dietary regime I would recommend)
for those still interested what she sees and what not
janet "go big" yellen :
-
* The recession that many Americans fear is coming is not “at all imminent,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told ABC News on Sunday.
* Talk of a recession has accelerated this year as inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve takes aggressive steps to counter.
* On Wednesday, the Fed announced a 75 basis point interest rate hike, its largest since 1994
The recession that many Americans fear is coming is not “at all imminent,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday.
impressive: having the power to excite attention, awe, or admiration
generally speaking impressive has a positive tone. except "awe" which can be both + or -
-
from a creature of the swamp:
Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
What all this suggests to me is that the Fed may now be overreacting, with harsh tightening in the face of a not-so-severe underlying problem.
regulatory circles as well ... really, no chit sherlock ?
did someone rouse janet "financial stability concern" yellen from her saturday morning bed ?
-
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
Attracting attention in market circles this morning (and, I suspect, in regulatory circles as well):
$19,076; LoD $18,739
Hear ye ! Hear ye !
WSJ front page 06/18/2022:
-
The Crypto Party Is Over
The cryptocurrency industry was built on swagger, enthusiasm and optimism. All three are in short supply these days, as losses and layoffs mount.
The Crypto Firms That Bought Those Super Bowl Ads Aren’t So Super Anymore
The Week When Crypto Came Crashing Down
Mtl JP 13:43:51 GMT - 06/18/2022
Raytheon $88.88
hopes: strategy or tactic?
U.S. hopes arms surge will sap Putin’s will - wapo
"the administration is willing to countenance even a global recession and mounting hunger"
-
The United States and its allies are making preparations for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, officials said, as the Biden administration attempts to deny Russia victory by surging military aid to Kyiv while scrambling to ease the war’s destabilizing effects on world hunger and the global economy. /..
"Change Of Elites"
putin to finish where trump did not succeed at draining the swamp ?
-
'They're like our nerd warriors': How the Treasury Department is waging economic war on Russia - cnn
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/17/politics/nerd-warriors-treasury-department-sanctions-economic-war-russia/index.html
Reuters - Fed vows unconditional inflation war with 'whatever it takes' - according to bostic (also kashkari)
dc CB 00:26:38 GMT - 06/18/2022
Three weeks ago, we showed readers what happens when the infamous "Bullwhip effect" reversal takes place by presenting the unprecedented surge in the "Inventory to Sales" ratio for a broad range of US retailers covering the furniture, home furnishings and appliances, building materials and garden equipment, and a category known as “other general merchandise,” which includes Walmart and Target. Since then, this ratio has only gotten even more extended, and as shown below it is now at the highest level since the bursting of the dot com bubble!
“There are going to be discounts like you’ve never seen before,” says Mickey Chadha, a Moody’s Investors Service analyst who tracks the retail industry.
Deep discounts are expected on oversize couches, appliances and patio furniture that are more expensive for companies to store in their warehouses, analysts say.
yeh, Tractor Supply. Used to be US made stuff, now a lot is China Made.
However--- the other overstocked includes Best Buy(electronics) and Appliances.
"""Retailers' sales urgency translates into better deals on items like furniture, home decor, clothes, televisions, computers and kitchen appliances.
WalMart, Best Buy, Gap and Urban Outfitters are among those reportedly cutting prices, but discounts aren't confined to major chains. This week, a Fred's Appliances store in Missoula, Montana is asking just $1,799 for a package of four GE appliances—a refrigerator, range, dishwasher and microwave.
Today's widespread inventory problems started in 2021, as Bloomberg explains:
Big retailers rushed to build up inventories last year amid soaring consumer demand and transportation bottlenecks—going so far in some cases as to rent their own cargo ships. Now, they’re trying to figure out how to sell all their stuff.
starting an "Inflation Fighter" tally
bostic sees himself as Muscular Inflation Fighter (MIF):
-
(Reuters) - Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic on Friday said he supported the U.S. central bank's 0.75 percentage point interest-rate hike this week, adding that supply chain fixes have been slow in coming.
"That means that we're going to have to be more muscular in our policies," Bostic told American Public Media's "Marketplace" radio program, adding that he hopes supply chain logjams will ease up in the summer.
"We're attacking inflation and we're going to do all that we can to get it back down to a more normal level, which for us has got to be 2%. We'll do whatever it takes to make that happen,"
Mtl JP 22:34:41 GMT - 06/17/2022
CB 16:09 - out of date, out of fashion and out of season crap or ... not what the customer wants. walmart and target got crushed already a month ago: on crappy margins (earnings). fire the buyers. fire the management ?
In contrast with the type of crap these two peddle, have a look at Tractor Supply. TSCO sells stuff that helps (you) grow, process and preserve food.
Caribbean! Rafe... 17:06:26 GMT - 06/17/2022
Mtl JP 00:24 GMT 06/17/2022.
What about clothing...
dc CB 16:09:04 GMT - 06/17/2022
Life & WorkLife & Style
Stores Have Too Much Stuff. Here’s Where They’re Slashing Prices.
Retailers are getting ready to cut prices of goods that were popular during the pandemic. Expect ‘discounts like you’ve never seen before.’
Putin: Unipolar Order Has Ended, West Headed For "Change Of Elites" As Russia Emerges Stronger
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eu-backs-ukraines-european-dream-putin-says-sanctions-cost-bloc-400bn-warns-fertilizer
dc CB 15:49:07 GMT - 06/17/2022
Update(11:00am ET) Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed in further remarks given before the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that anti-Russian sanctions have only come back to hurt the people of the EU and the West broadly
according to a state-backed media translation:
The Russian president criticized the European Union over the decision to impose anti-Russia sanctions, calling it "crazy" and "not well thought out". Putin said that their goal was to crush the Russian economy in one go, but that they have failed to achieve this.
Instead, EU politicians delivered a serious blow to their own economies, prompting high inflation, the president stressed. He estimated the costs of the "sanctions fever" to be around $400 billion this year alone and noted that the measures will become a burden on regular people's shoulders.
swiss frank 15:23:01 GMT - 06/17/2022
Martin Armstrong saying Dow low was this week. Temp bounce now into Sep and then more downside. I think.
Mtl JP 15:16:25 GMT - 06/17/2022
Depends time ...
World Economic Forum
-
"This edition of the Chief Economists Outlook explores the key forces driving the global outlook, including inflation and wage developments, food security, global integration, and the impact of sanctions on Russia and sets out core policy trade-offs. It draws on the collective views and individual perspectives of a group of leading Chief Economists, through the Forum’s Chief Economists Survey and consultations with the Chief Economists Community."
Some plums:
96% of the economists expect high or very high inflation in the US
and
92% in Europe
25% expect high to very high inflation in China
DLRx 104.82 - uP some but still sub 105
-
riks off some
Mtl JP 14:32:13 GMT - 06/17/2022
"A man always has two reasons for doing anything: a good reason and the real reason." - J. P. Morgan
-
here is jeff cox reporting on, allegedly, jerome's reasons:
... Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing down inflation, saying Friday it’s essential for the global financial system. ...
Rumors that BNP Paribas is going to buy Dutch bank ABN AMRO.
Previous rumors were at €15 a share.
Mtl JP 07:59:21 GMT - 06/17/2022
biden's source of economic intelligence on recession
Mtl JP 02:46:49 GMT - 06/17/2022
unsigned AP filing:
-
* Biden said a recession is not inevitable and bristled at claims by Republican lawmakers that last year’s Covid-19 aid plan was fully to blame for inflation reaching a 40-year high.
* The president said he saw reason for optimism with the 3.6% unemployment rate and America’s relative strength in the world.
everyone knows. few understand.
the molecular structure makeup of mushroom feed
reports jeff cox:
-
* The big three inputs to the consumer price index, the most widely followed inflation measure, are food, energy and shelter.
* But when it comes to breaking down where CPI inflation really comes from, the answer is more complicated. “Services less energy services” is actually the biggest component for the index.
'Adding to the chaos is the fact that tomorrow's OpEx is a biggy: $3.4 trillion notional expiring (which as Goldman's Rocky Fishman notes is more like a December size and the eradication oif large put positions has the possibly of sparking a major inflection point).
As SpotGamma noted, the very tricky part here is that, until puts are closed, they are going to drive a lot of volatility. As it appears the macro community wanted to sell today after digesting Powell, then these OPEX positions will excite that selling until they expire, and a tag of 3600 is easily in the cards. In that scenario SpotGamma would still be looking for a rally on Tuesday of next week.
https://spotgamma.com/founders-note-for-2022-06-16-0621-edt/
dc CB about that new additiona extra billion for zelenski
-
The West’s unity over Ukraine could be starting to crack, just as Russia’s invasion gains ground according to someone on cnbc
just as reading that macron together w/ some other bigwigs frolicking in kiev presently
howz that old saying go: three birds one rock -- one "lost" zircon put an end or not to west's cracking unity ?
Mtl JP 10:33:06 GMT - 06/16/2022
20.5455
-
CB has , CB will
gaming CBs = game of relativity and timing
One thing is clear---- Covid-fear theater is dead. Live Presser, no masks, no social distancing.
swiss frank 18:49:20 GMT - 06/15/2022
Honestly Fed rate decisions don't matter that much. The market sets rates. THE important role of the Fed is balance sheet management.
With that, the course is set:
- No change in economic outlook. Not seeing the end of negative factors.
- Continued withdrawal of liquidity. Demand for usd not going to fall.
- Higher rates (even tho the Fed is just ratifying what the market is saying).
dc CB 18:43:45 GMT - 06/15/2022
OPEX now front and center.....humans not needed...it's all about the Numbers
PAR 18:22:19 GMT - 06/15/2022
Bad news for Bitcoin and Bitcoin banks.
Mtl JP 18:02:58 GMT - 06/15/2022
75bps
jerome playing with credibility
Mtl JP 17:43:31 GMT - 06/15/2022
EURO's double bottom 1.0349
at risk now
dc CB 17:26:18 GMT - 06/15/2022
(banzai biden)
Following President Biden's letter to many 'Big Oil' executives, threatening them, the American Petroleum Institute - which represents 'Big Oil' - sent a letter to the president offering some advice.
... $$$$ people familiar with the package$ $$$ ...
pocket money
dc CB 16:58:36 GMT - 06/15/2022
Biden doing his best to boost the GDP-----
"The White House is expected as soon as Wednesday to announce around $1 billion dollars worth of new weapons aid for Ukraine, including anti-ship rocket systems, artillery rockets, and rounds for howitzers, people familiar with the packages said," Reuters reports Wednesday morning.
dc CB 16:46:52 GMT - 06/15/2022
According to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP, growth in the second quarter of 2022 has been cut to just 0.0%, down from +0.9% on June 6, down from 1.3% on June 1, and down from 1.9% on May 27.
Biden's.....errrerrr..eerrrr. PUTIN'S Fault.
(stox to the Moon) lol
this is soooo un-american it aches
-
Reuters - Biden blasts oil refiners for record high gasoline prices, profits
Mtl JP 14:24:27 GMT - 06/15/2022
not the smartest tool in the shed
-
HSBC Fires London Trader as Crackdown on Client Messaging Widens
HSBC Holdings Plc fired a trader in London after scrutinizing the personal mobile phones of some staff, in a sign of increased pressure on banks to closely monitor business communications.
Mtl JP 14:19:39 GMT - 06/15/2022
still pigeons left
-
$21,600.10 Low $20,087.90
probably the resilient ones.
the kind that must not be let to breed
Mtl JP 13:27:03 GMT - 06/15/2022
ahead of 14:00 Fomc and 14:30 jerome
-
50: dovish
75: fully priced. i.e. no surprise
Mtl JP 13:21:47 GMT - 06/15/2022
frank 11:16 I think any yikyak reference by them to fighting inflation is an exercise of pretend. credibility is , imo, no.1 concern at this point.
lets see if they blow it or if I am right
GVI Forex12:34:22 GMT - 06/15/2022
Weaker than expected US retail sales just reported.
swiss frank 11:16:21 GMT - 06/15/2022
It kind of depends on how far they want to go and how far they see their reach.
One could argue they've already killed housing with refinancings dead, and sales falling off a cliff.
Equities they have instigated (whether by hiking or being to late to hike) a 30% (more or less) correction in valuation. Enough? Don't know.
Will going 100 then 100 then another 100 really have an impact on food and energy inflation ? I kind of don't think so.
Whats left? Ah Labor. Is killing wage increases (the offset to higher food and energy prices) really a good idea?
I'm simplifying a bit but something to think about....
PAR 11:01:13 GMT - 06/15/2022
Coordinated rate hike.
Both ECB and FED go 0.50%.
Draghi promises to reduce Italian déficit.
Mtl JP 10:57:19 GMT - 06/15/2022
today's killer would be
a one point hike
and then one more in july and one more after that
otherwise FED has no credibility
GVI Forex08:45:04 GMT - 06/15/2022
A look at the day ahead in markets from Sujata Rao
The bond selloff triggered by last week's May consumer inflation print got fresh legs on Tuesday when U.S. factory gate inflation or PPI was revealed to have increased by 10.8% last month; higher gasoline prices comprised 40% of the rise in goods costs.
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Big Bear, Big Bird, Big Bad
So, a bear market. A BIG bear market. And a BIG bear market in almost everything.
The S&P is -22.1% year-to-date (y-t-d). The Nasdaq worse, -30.1%. Equity carnage is widespread in the US and globally too. All those who had gone long risk again, having no idea what is actually happening in the real economy, are in tears.
..................................................................
In Japan, the BOJ’s 10-year JGB yield peg held, barely, due to huge official bond buying. JPY had crashed through 135 before recovering slightly as offshore selling in everything saw some Japanese capital repatriated. However, given Wednesday may see the Fed go 75bps and flag more, while the BOJ on Friday will only flag more bond buying, JPY is not going to stay at these levels for long. It’s going to get much, much worse.
The World Health Organization said Tuesday it will rename the monkeypox virus after concern that it could stoke racism and stigma.
The current name for the virus, which has infected over 1,600 people in 39 countries this year and was first reported in Africa, does not adhere to WHO guidelines that discourage the use of geographic regions or animals, Bloomberg reports.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/who-weighs-renaming-monkeypox-virus-to-minimize-stigma-racism#xj4y7vzkg
____________________________________________________
proves the point
dc CB 03:13:30 GMT - 06/15/2022
Mtl JP 15:46 GMT 06/14/2022 - My Profile
clowns. think dc CB has a fetish for clowns:
_______________________________________________
not a fetish---clowns abound and can cost you a great deal of your wealth.
They are given platforms to espouse their 'Advice'.
Both on sanctioned Media Platforms and here.
"sell the USD it's going to Crumble" 'Buy Bitcoin and Hold --- it's going to $100,000 This Year"
---- when the USD was in the Upper 80's. When Betcoin was around $50,000----this fall.
Coulrophobia (Fear of Clowns)
Coulrophobia brings on feelings of fear when you see clowns or see clown spouting 'expert opinion'.
It's a gut feeling that causes anxiety, a racing heart, nausea and profuse sweating. It's an evolutionary response to Danger...The Risk to your Wealth is great----even though you 'want to act on the Advice'
Mtl JP 16:20:23 GMT - 06/14/2022
neither the stock market nor the CPI are The Economy
-
pic is of a race card,
no winner just yet , only positions of loser, loserer, losest (I just made them up. pic is probably clearer)
Mtl JP 15:46:54 GMT - 06/14/2022
clowns. think dc CB has a fetish for clowns:
-
Fed set to get more aggressive as Powell changes mind after inflation facts change - Bob Pisani
Fed likely to boost interest rates by three-quarters of a point this week - Jeff Cox
srce: cnbc f-page
GVI Forex15:43:44 GMT - 06/14/2022
OS yields spiking higher...
Mtl JP 15:40:18 GMT - 06/14/2022
almost every time I read about some "challenge" or "difficult" or some other similar cry for sympathy for some Central Banker I think of the circa 3500 "employees" pumping out reports and papers (mostly for each other) and ... for what end ?
***
Nasdaq ytd off only some 30%
Mtl JP 15:23:18 GMT - 06/14/2022
EURO'S ANTICS
-
only N of 1.05 would nix trip to mid-may low
Mtl JP 15:14:54 GMT - 06/14/2022
EURO 1.0411ish
-
good bet is to ignore schnabel's "guidance"
bbrg let the cat out of the bag yesty
players more interested in angst between rates
bigger fish is FED's theatrics about pretending to fight inflation
The Game Ticket:
fed gang delivers and euro dives sub 1.04
GVI Forex14:46:26 GMT - 06/14/2022
Event risk:
European Central Bank's Isabel Schnabel, speaks later on about containing fragmentation risks
Mtl JP 14:24:08 GMT - 06/14/2022
DLRx 105.10
may's high being tested for the 4th time
all headlines suggest appetite for "risk" is low
sounds like a trade opp
Mtl JP 14:10:02 GMT - 06/14/2022
not fair
-
SEC’s Gensler Warns About Crypto Lenders Offering High Returns
(Bloomberg) -- Gary Gensler has a message for people pouring money into crypto on promises of high returns: beware.
Mtl JP 10:51:23 GMT - 06/14/2022
Central banks' challenge -- hiking interest rates to contain soaring inflation.
Soaring inflation: 8.6% CPI (generally accepted metric)
-
Who want to put some numbers on the CPI release table:
<>June 2022 Jul. 13, 2022
July 2022 Aug. 10, 2022
August 2022 Sep. 13, 2022
September 2022 Oct. 13, 2022
October 2022 Nov. 10, 2022
November 2022 Dec. 13, 2022
Mtl JP 10:19:17 GMT - 06/14/2022
for something that is "shockwaves"
-
VIX only at 33.70
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.VIX
Mtl JP 09:48:02 GMT - 06/14/2022
say no more ?
-
USDYEN 134.28 - calm and cool as a duck
floating on alleged "shockwaves" ... ?
how , why ... does it do it ?
BoJ does not appear to have gotten the message: tighten!
I say ... BoJ misbehaving needs to get punished: BoJ clubbed like a seal and its ccy shredded
GVI Forex08:44:14 GMT - 06/14/2022
A look at the day ahead in markets from Dhara Ranasinghe
Central banks' challenge -- hiking interest rates to contain soaring inflation without wrecking their economies -- has just got harder.
From stocks to crypto and emerging markets, risk assets are reeling from the likelihood of aggressive U.S. interest-rate increases that raise recession risks for the global econom
Depends time
-
Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman sees 50-50 odds of recession ahead - cnbc
50-50 means he does not know, no clue.
like weatherperson saying 50-50 odds of rain (or no rain)
do you take an umbrella ? useless info
Mtl JP 17:39:36 GMT - 06/13/2022
blast from the past
-
We’re gonna hike rates, like it’s 1994
https://www.moneycorp.com/en-gb/news-hub/daily-brief-20-04-2022/
Mtl JP 17:32:18 GMT - 06/13/2022
..."expectations are growing of a 75 basis-point move,"
-
for history buffs: only once did the FED gang do such a thing
in 1994
GVI Forex08:43:09 GMT - 06/13/2022
A half-point U.S. Fed interest rate rise was always a done deal for Wednesday, but with annual inflation rising at the fastest since 1981, expectations are growing of a 75 basis-point move, either this month, or at one of the bank’s upcoming meetings.
Smithfield Foods, Inc. announced it is shutting down a hog plant in California because of the exorbitant costs of doing business in the Golden State.
Smithfield Foods, Inc. – bought by China-based pork juggernaut the WH Group in 2013 – made the announcement in a press release Friday, stating it is halting “all harvest and processing operations” at its Vernon, California, facility early next year. Compared to plants in other states, utility cost in California “is 3.5 times higher per head to produce pork,” the Wall Street Journal reported a company spokesman as saying.
“It’s increasingly challenging to operate efficiently there,” Smithfield spokesman Jim Monroe told the publication. “We’re striving to keep costs down and keep food affordable.”
I do not know IF Larry signed his "banned" from twitter / youtube ticket, IF he has don't care attitude or IF his spanking was vetted
BUT
I wonder that if I super-impose Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius Friday note that "Softer company-level hiring expectations and slower GDP growth in the second half of the year point to slower payroll growth in coming months," onto to the Federal Reserve Board's spawners of so-called FRB-US economic model and peddlers of homogeneous forecasts that some accountability and rolling of (probably less known) heads is in the air.
ps / I am not holding my breath
Mtl JP 14:54:53 GMT - 06/12/2022
Larry is killing me (figuratively)
key words: failure, mistakes, wrong, delusional, ridiculous,
-
“Those mistakes mean that they don’t fundamentally have credibility.”
---
In a Depends segment:
Summers urged the Fed to investigate why officials’ forecasts were “so dramatically” and repeatedly wrong. He faulted the central bank for having a homogeneity in its forecasts, and criticized its main mathematical model.
The Fed’s so-called FRB-US economic model “is not really fit for purpose in terms of inflation,”
fyi
Thurs 8:30AM DXY traded just below 102.20
currently
trading just below 104.20
blow out any accounts around here?????
just askin'
cheers
gwe
Mtl JP 18:33:04 GMT - 06/10/2022
ya ya ya ... combat ... that sounds dramatic and heavy, only for "experts"
-
Bloomberg
Fed Task Gets Tougher, Putting 75-Basis-Point Hike Back in View
Financial Times
Policymakers struggle to contain surging inflation -Darren Dodd
Bloomberg
Hot Inflation and Flagging Sentiment Up the Ante for Fed, Biden
are the peasants supposed to be empathetic and feel sympathy for the financial overlords ?
GVI Forex18:14:55 GMT - 06/10/2022
WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer prices accelerated in May as gasoline prices hit a record high and the cost of food soared, leading to the largest annual increase in nearly 40-1/2 years, suggesting that the Federal Reserve could continue with its 50 basis points interest rate hikes through September to combat inflation.
now it is raining:
-
01:30 ‘Catastrophically bad’ inflation report is boosting chances of a 75-basis-point interest-rate hike next week
01:22 Jefferies economists also call for 75 basis point Fed rate hike next week
- MarketWatch
Mtl JP 17:38:27 GMT - 06/10/2022
gee looks like I ... am being beaten to it:
-
Reuters
Bets rise on bigger Fed rate hikes as inflation sears
MarketWatch
Economists at Barclays now expect Fed to surprise markets with 75-basis-point hike next week
Mtl JP 17:29:51 GMT - 06/10/2022
the effect of the little surprise in today's data print
-
now it ll be incumbent upon the FED to pre-feed the market with a 75bps hike ahead of next meeting so that it can price it in and then sell 105+
side note: (according to theory) higher dlr should make crude oil come down in price some
dc CB 17:12:47 GMT - 06/10/2022
Next week US Mkts.
Vix Options for June Exp Wed---note Last Trade is Tuesday.
FOMC.
QUAD WITCHING ----(end of first half) OPEX
abel ... Abel , I did not ask about Election year.
I was inquiring if you, the bull, thought are going to live another day to trade (the gap would close around 31250, fwiw)
Jkt Abel 16:34:25 GMT - 06/10/2022
Yeah definitely JP. Election year cannot go negative.
Mtl JP 16:25:15 GMT - 06/10/2022
almost like market intelligence:
-
Markets expect the Fed will now be more willing to risk recession to fight hot inflation - reports Patti Domm
Hopes for a Fed ‘pause’ are dashed as this CPI reading wipes out the peak inflation story - quipped Bob Pisani
Mtl JP 16:17:24 GMT - 06/10/2022
US_30 31498-ish
-
abel ... how r u enjoying the "blast", u going to be around next week ...
rich by buying dips ?
jkt abel 07:34:48 GMT - 06/10/2022
today's US30 index manipulation:
push down to 32k or 31.8k and then blast north again to above 32.6k towards the close?
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Are you
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.