DLRx 104.4x and 10yr 2.983
POOF ! 105
Players probably contra-pricing jerome's alleged tuff talk on inflation
odds are jerome's gang will have to go full point(s) to regain credibility and respect from players
PAR 14:20:58 GMT - 06/30/2022
Margin calls and margin calls.
GVI10:50:28 GMT - 06/30/2022
Reminder, it is month/quarter-end. Typically usd buying is seen when stocks fall sharply during the month as fx hedges get adjusted to lower value of the portfolio. However, the quarter-end makes it more tricky but so far usd is in demand as risk-off dominates.
Key time of day for flows today is the 4 PM London fixing.
PAR09:48:28 GMT - 06/30/2022
Black Thursday in European stock markets as ECB seems only interested in buying Italian bonds.
GVI Forex08:57:02 GMT - 06/30/2022
A look at the day ahead in markets from Julien Ponthus.
Investors on recession watch learnt little they didn't already know from the world's top central bankers gathered at the European Central Bank's annual conference in Portugal.
EURCHF is acting as a good EUR sentiment indicator, currently below 1.00
dc CB 20:11:03 GMT - 06/29/2022
make it a very long weekend for the US MarkIts.
end of month end of quarter end of half.
dc CB 17:20:45 GMT - 06/29/2022
Listen to the linked interview----start time noted.
At the end he sez that they are 'in trials' using the mRNA tech to finally develop a sucessfull HIV Vax.
He's be tilting at this windmill his entire career...he's going to stick around for the celebration.
The intv is kind of scary---esp when he get's 'political' about ***misinformation---aka Lies***
Mtl JP 17:14:46 GMT - 06/29/2022
I do not know why he does not park himself on some nice beach, close to a fridge full of frosty livetions and sway to the sound of waves observing the passing scenery instead of gallivanting at some forum ... and write a book
dc CB 16:49:24 GMT - 06/29/2022
Mtl JP 16:54 GMT 06/28
more moRE lockdowns and profit-trading opportunities:
WHO adviser says G7 leaders must prioritize COVID-19 or face economic harm, unrest
DOE (net of the two weeks)
Cushing inventories are getting very close to operational-low-limits again...
Cushing storage tanks require a minimum level of oil to maintain normal operations, which traders estimate at ~20M barrels.
US Crude Production rose to its highest since April 2020...
* The US Federal Reserve is “just at the beginning” of raising interest rates to control inflation ... and
* wants to see the benchmark lending rate "a little bit above 4% next year." - bbrg
Mtl JP 11:06:15 GMT - 06/29/2022
Inflation & Fighters & Data & Guidance & Communication paroles
i.e. mushroom farming* feeding time
current various - ecb / fed - PhDs' chorus:
(I) "support rate hike" BUT only IF "data support it"
*mushroom farming: feed 'em chit and keep 'em in the dark
inasmuch as policy makers appear to want market players to believe and focus on that interest is THE inflation-taming appropriate tool
Vincent Cignarella suggests that it is "The Fed’s balance sheet as a percentage of GDP is what is driving today’s inflation -- not the nominal Fed Funds rate." but so far his suggestion does not appear to have traction in the market as a theme. you judge:
A look at the day ahead in markets from Julien Ponthus.
Much of the market rebound from the lows hit on June 17 was credited to data being arguably bad enough to encourage central banks to go easy on their aggressive policy tightening plans yet good enough to suggest a recession could be avoided.
FED gang Inflation fight Player sentiment
by quick non-scientific headlines count I am observing increased division amongst pundits about FED's staying power and commitment
SnP was circa 3925, -10% would bring it to somes' consensus bottom around 3500
Mtl JP 18:15:36 GMT - 06/28/2022
taking on risk needs to be accompanied by appropriate+ level of potential reward. finance 101 and 102. not PhD
dc CB 17:50:30 GMT - 06/28/2022
After one ugly 2Y auction and one catastrophic 5Y sale on Monday, today the week's truncated auction schedule saw the last coupon issuance for the week when the Treasury sold $40BN in 7Y paper. And while the auction was not as bad as the infamous Feb 21 "failed" 7Y auction but it sure was ugly.
That said, a few weeks of QT, a few more rate hikes and we won't be surprised if we have an actual failed belly-buster auction.
North Carolina’s largest hospital systems made billions of dollars in profits during the pandemic, while simultaneously taking $1.5 billion in taxpayer-funded COVID-19 relief funds, according to a report released Wednesday by the state treasurer’s office.
Remember at the beginning of this year when you could not turn on the TV or log on to the web without being bombarded by a non-stop wave of covid fear mongering?
Remember when you couldn't even ask questions about the validity of the claims made by Anthony Fauci, the CDC and others without getting booted from social media?
Where did all the hype go? It disappeared in a matter of weeks once the corporate media gave up on the narrative.
This abandonment of the precious covid program has been made evident in the latest G7 summit, which does not seem to have covid listed as a topic of discussion, and the pandemic has so far been completely overshadowed by other concerns. World leaders have clearly moved on and are not even wearing masks for show anymore (If the vaccines actually work, what do you need a mask for? If they don't work, then why take one?).
didn't christia say it was OK to be mad ? mad in general and mad at her too ?
more moRE lockdowns and profit-trading opportunities:
Dr. Bruce Aylward said failing to keep COVID-19 at the top of the agenda risks further economic harm and unleashing more civil unrest.
"The first thing the G7 has to say is, 'We have an opportunity to beat this pandemic, we need to turn the burners on now,'" Aylward said.
That includes funding investments in vaccines and treatments for COVID-19 and, when the updated vaccines are released later this year .../..
Mtl JP 14:01
going the way of the Kuroda Yen???
ECB's Laguarde following the Japan Plan....'turning Japanese'
The Vapors-1980 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGy9uomagO4)
(from the ECB's summer camp)
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank will activate one part of the bond-purchasing firepower it’s earmarked as "a first line of defense" against a possible debt-market crisis this coming Friday... which just "coincidentally" happens to be the day the ECB's QE ends!
“We have decided to apply this flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio as of 1 July,” Lagarde said Tuesday in a speech in Sintra, Portugal, where the ECB is holding its annual retreat.
DLRx 103.72; Euro 1.0586; Gold 1823; Brent 113
challenges perspectives leading voices
Journalists will likely serve up yakkings - "perspectives" - on the “Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world” of "Leading voices in the world of central banking"
traders - on the other hand - will assess and evaluate - via price-action - the clowns' comedy
Sherlock : "You will not apply my precept. How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"
"The Fed’s balance sheet as a percentage of GDP is what is driving today’s inflation -- not the nominal Fed Funds rate. This will emerge as a major risk to stocks and bonds if not managed soon."
Poor 2Y Auction Tails At Highest Yield Since 2007 As Foreign Buyers Flee
Terrible 5Y Auction Prices With Huge Tail As Foreign Demand Tumbles
Mtl JP 17:31:03 GMT - 06/27/2022
who is tyler quoting ? "Growth scare" back on...
Wall Street layoffs likely ahead as two-year hiring boom turns to bust
think larry's prescription warms the cockles of his heart at the promising start to Sacrifice Ratio
dc CB 16:57:17 GMT - 06/27/2022
The comments from survey respondents are perhaps most enlightening of the reality facing many businesses in America: foreign dependence, cost inflation, over-regulation, and Biden energy policies...
Everything we buy and sell comes and goes by truck, if we can get a truck at any price. Inflation will continue until the country is self-sufficient in oil and gas. The current political policy may not change until 2024. Therefore, inflation will be our consistent companion for a while, then stagflation!
We see the environment for the oil industry becoming even worse than the previous months. Biden is promoting a very caustic attitude toward the oil industry, which doesn’t help the country in any way.
"We’ll all be lucky to have a job with two more years of this disaster."
"You can’t ignore the economic fundamentals leading to a likely recession, and the administration [in Washington] is either stubborn or as paralyzed as a deer in headlights"
for the record
Dallas Fed Manuf -17.7 vs -3.1 expct'd
some call it meganegasurprise, others a disaster
larry probably has cheshire cat grin
Mtl JP 14:33:42 GMT - 06/27/2022
lagarde gives pre-dinner yak in 3hrs
Mtl JP 14:12:48 GMT - 06/27/2022
for the record:
pending home sales: uP 0.7% vs -3.7% expt'd
Mtl JP 13:56:03 GMT - 06/27/2022
at top of hour
us pending home sales. expectation is for -3.8%
pending meaning number of folks that are trying to get bank mortgage loan approval before making an offer
Mtl JP 13:47:14 GMT - 06/27/2022
party time !
schemers, deceivers and other seedy characters (includes journalists)
The ECB Forum on Central Banking is an annual event organised by the European Central Bank and is held in Sintra, Portugal.
It brings together central bank governors, academics, financial market representatives, journalists and others to exchange views on current policy issues and discuss the Forum’s key topic from a longer-term perspective.
puppy slinking South, ever so gently, quietly
with 10-yr under 3.5% (curr 3.202) dlr rally seems limited unless it pays more interest which, in itself, appears to have low market enthusiasm pricing odds atm
Mtl JP 08:24:03 GMT - 06/27/2022
clown trying to humour .. who exactly: why would vladimir sell Gold rather than dollar - a us govt treasury's promissory note ?
(WaPo) Biden: G-7 to ban Russian gold imports to pressure Putin on Ukraine
sofar it is only a plan. just like banning crude and natgas
GVI Forex07:23:17 GMT - 06/27/2022
A look at the day ahead in markets from Saikat Chatterjee.
Take it easy. That seems to be the message from global markets to policymakers at the start of a busy week.
in case you didn't pay attention.
Get too mad and WE (Justin-Time and me) will attach your bank account.
Mtl JP 22:49:06 GMT - 06/26/2022
any limit to how mad chrystia ?
Asked about the general unease many Canadians feel about the economy, Freeland (can finmin) struck a similar tone.
"I say it's OK to be mad," she said. "It's OK to be mad at me. I really understand that this is an incredibly challenging economic time. It's really, really hard for a lot of people."
dc CB 21:55:31 GMT - 06/26/2022
soo with the G7 annc'ng---forever Ukrainnning --- and Checks saying---yeh we Potlached all that Old Stuff from the 2000s
Buy the BIG Armament StoX.
The G7 Potlach.
What is a Potlatch?
Pacific Northwest Coastal Native Americans
in Olden Times for Kids----Somebody got the Note Card!!!!!
Big Event Potlatches
Vengeance Potlatches: There were even vengeance potlatches. If you wanted to knock a clan down a step or two, you might try to trick them into giving a potlatch to use up some of their wealth. People tried very hard not to lose their temper and be tricked into giving a costly potlatch to save face. So, if a clan had more wealth than yours, you tried to ignore their insults. Understanding and using the potlatch system for your own clans' advancement took great skill.
The competition to show how wealthy you were, no matter how untrue, nearly destroyed these early people.
Mtl JP 21:20:08 GMT - 06/26/2022
Shares of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. rallied again Friday, as better-than-expected earnings and a dividend hike followed a decision by the Supreme Court of the United States to strike down a New York gun-control provision.
The gun maker’s stock SWBI, +14.48% soared 14.5% to , after running up 9.6% on Thursday. The two-day climb of 25.5% came after the stock closed at a two-year low on Wednesday
Meanwhile, shares of fellow firearms company Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. RGR, +2.72% have bounced 71% in two days, after closing Wednesday at an 18-month low.
Mtl JP 21:00:31 GMT - 06/26/2022
CB 19:04 larry can vindictively "I told you so" bloviate coz his may 4th and 24th WaPo opinions ("predictions") came to.
currently larry prescribes:
- "there needs to be a lasting period of higher unemployment to contain inflation — a one-year spike to 10%, two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment."
- for the unemployed rolls to swell to roughly 16 million from just under 6 million in May
and so now the political hacks and policy-advising economic PhDs are amusing selves duking it over the Sacrifice Ratio.
translating to plebian: to bring down prices lower demand by increasing peasant un-employment (pain).
PAR 19:58:22 GMT - 06/26/2022
ECB raising interest rates to ZERO is a tax cut and a stimulative fiscal policy.
ECB should never ever have gone negative on interest rates.
dc CB 19:04:40 GMT - 06/26/2022
when Summers appears on all these shows is he ever introduced as one of people responsible for eliminating the rule that kept 'bankers' from gambling with their Depositors money. Eliminating the rule that was put in place after the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Or while at Harvard running the Harvard Endowment he pissed away a few billion with his bad investment decisions and almost broke the Harvard Endowment Fund.
Mtl JP 18:51:38 GMT - 06/26/2022
bargains and new profit opportunities r looming
cash. will be king again.
"I think a recession is almost inevitable, probably a 75%, 80% chance within the next two years, and there's certainly a real risk that it will come sooner," Summers said Sunday on Bloomberg's "Wall Street Week", contradicting Biden
Mtl JP 15:19:14 GMT - 06/26/2022
DLRx 103.88; SnP 3913
first there was kristalina starting the chorus
(Bloomberg) Stagflation Threat Needs Central Bank Action, BIS Warns
“The risk of stagflation looms over the global economy as the threat of a new inflation era coincides with a weaker outlook for growth and elevated financial vulnerabilities,” - BIS
“Our fear is that while the ECB cannot tame inflation with higher interest rates, you could trigger a recession,” - squealed in delight about christine's abilities Ernest Urtasun, a European Parliament lawmaker from Spain
Weanwhile all the "fight inflation else" remedy screaming from the PhDed "experts" is making peasant thankful :
"Inflation is eating into people’s confidence about their savings.
More than half (58%) of Americans reported they feel “very uncomfortable” or “somewhat uncomfortable” with the amount of emergency savings they have, according to a Bankrate survey released Thursday and conducted in early June, up 10 percentage points from last year." - MarketWatch
Mtl JP 19:11:51 GMT - 06/25/2022
Nearly half (46 per cent) of those surveyed by the Angus Reid Institute said they trust the central bank will adequately fulfil its mandate to ensure price stability, but a similar number (41 per cent) disagreed.
now peasants are laughing:
“Inflation is too high; it’s hurting Canadians,” Carolyn Rogers, the Bank of Canada’s senior deputy governor, said at an event in Toronto on June 22 . “It’s keeping us up at night and we will not rest easy until we get it back down to target … That’s why we’re raising interest rates and, as we say, we’re raising them quite aggressively.”
but they don't really know why, just that it is an uneasy laughter.
Mtl JP 18:30:39 GMT - 06/25/2022
PAR 13:21 BIDEN - If he cares about women and abortion ...
powell and gang did not see. yellen did not see. biden's "advisors" did not see. do you see a common theme ? keep on dreaming. see CB 18:02 for what "they" tell biden how and what to care about.
courtesy New York Times:
June 25, 2022 WASHINGTON — When President Biden met his Western allies in Europe three months ago, the world was rallying behind Ukraine, and NATO suddenly had a new sense of purpose — its old purpose, containing Russia. There was talk of “crippling sanctions.” President Vladimir V. Putin was in retreat, and talk of victory was in the air.
Mr. Biden returns to Europe on Saturday night at a moment when everything about the war is harder.
kristalina approves and applauds
US recession 'necessary price' to defeat inflation
"Of course, the responsibility to restore low and stable inflation rests with the Federal Reserve."
kristalina (and her gang) are counting on you jerome:
"we are confident the Fed will be effective in bringing inflation down, will remain data dependent and, as conditions change, will telegraph clearly where policy is likely to go. This is important not just for the U.S. but also for the global economy." - ya hear jerome, are you paying attention ?!
"You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before." - Rahm Emanuel, Democrats’ mentality
the world's most prosperous democratic nations
Japan, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, the European Union and Germany
uh uh ... just refreshed my marketwatch feed :
04:26 Fed’s Bullard says rapid rise in interest rates now is the best way to avoid recession later
04:19 Fed’s Daly sees another big hike in interest rates in the fight against inflation
dc CB 17:42 - think the (mostly) females will sober up and heed biden's suggestion OR "the beating will continue until morale improves" ?
Mtl JP 20:20:55 GMT - 06/24/2022
this looks very very bad on the "unconditional" inflation fighting FED
04:08 Main stock-market indexes book first winning week in June
04:07 Dow books a weekly gain of 5.4%; S&P 500 logs a weekly advance of 6.5%; Nasdaq Composite notches 7.5% return for the week
04:06 S&P 500 closes up 3.1% on Friday; Dow ends up 2.7%; Nasdaq Composite finishes 3.3% higher
04:06 U.S. stocks finish higher, snapping three weeks of losses
04:04 Dow ends session more than 800 points higher Friday as stock indexes snap weekly streak of losses
-- srce: MarketWatch
Mtl JP 18:50:19 GMT - 06/24/2022
Gap now POOF !
dc CB 17:57:56 GMT - 06/24/2022
US Auctions 2s,5s,7s next week.
dc CB 17:33:08 GMT - 06/24/2022
Earlier today we laid out two traders views, one bull and one bear, both of which agreed that the next leg in stocks will be higher, and laid out their reasons. Now a third potential catalyst for a major month-end rally has emerged: according to Goldman trading desk estimates, there is a net $30 billion of US equities to buy from US pensions given the moves in equities and bonds over the month and quarter.
puppy not showing vigor atm
at 3895.50 the gap would be POOF!
Mtl JP 14:16:56 GMT - 06/24/2022
"risk" players currently slaying the FED mushroom farmers and ...
are cashing in
I am guessing players are pricing that FED gang's blabbing is going to tilt the economy into recession which in turn will force the gang to give up its "unconditional" fight
Mtl JP 14:09:00 GMT - 06/24/2022
the FED gang has a definite credibility issue with players
official “unconditional” and what-ever it takes blather not showing traction sofar
Mtl JP 14:04:51 GMT - 06/24/2022
challenging yesty's range at the lower end
typically, but not always, a good leading indicator for trading euro or "risk"
Mtl JP 10:00:20 GMT - 06/24/2022
post-jerome's heroic but self-charitable admission that he's misjudged inflation BUT that NOW he IS the man to combat it ...
"risk" is uP
Mtl JP 07:54:35 GMT - 06/24/2022
"experts" are suggesting
El-Erian: 'Uncomfortably possible' the Fed will 'push us into recession'
-- The Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve a “soft landing” in its fight against inflation is looking increasingly less likely, a growing number of economists are suggesting.
Mtl JP 18:10:50 GMT - 06/23/2022
first: some real-estate peddling agents POOF!
Netflix lays off 300 more employees as revenue growth slows
higher interest + high thinggie prices + bit of overhead tossing will, in time, tame the high rate of job offers going begging
PAR 17:47:45 GMT - 06/23/2022
It was Biden's choice to appoint Powell.
He had plenty of options.
Mtl JP 16:49:42 GMT - 06/23/2022
red 13:51 - "guidance" from powell:
"The main thing is we can't fail on this. We really have to get inflation down to 2%," Powell told lawmakers. "We're going to want to see evidence that it really is coming down before we declare any kind of victory." .../
services rate of input price inflation was the softest for five months and eased notably from may. the rise in manufacturing input prices was the slowest since april 2021.
Mtl JP 13:33:01 GMT - 06/23/2022
powell yaks at top of hour. odds are he ll repeat what he said yesty:
- the the surprise is inflation's fault and not his and the 2500+ salary(wo)men inability to see it coming . hence , as he is likely to repeat "they" are in fix-it rather than pre-empt "inflation" and that peasants should have confidence both the FED gangs ability to understand and in the quality of the tool(s) they use in their combat on behalf of peasants.
I am in wait n see mode
probably needs to go N of stay N of 1.06 or puppy
runs risk of heaving .
I am not bothering with S and Rs atm,
maybe play the opportunistic scalp inside the current range
Mtl JP 10:57:09 GMT - 06/23/2022
“I think that the most recent inflation indicators, various kinds, suggest to us that we need to accelerate the pace at which we can get up to a level that is neutral,” - powell yesty
10-yr 3.117 (down some)
"risk" 3792.50 (uP some) - but testing prev high
jkt abel 09:34:44 GMT - 06/23/2022
yeah you are right ab, no SL posts now, just like wfakhoury...
to each his own, just sending signals as they appear
hk ab 09:23:16 GMT - 06/23/2022
Don't post SL.....
They just chased it.
Maybe you put it a range.
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Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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