on one slide in his presentation:
- "Since modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s, it appears that both the Fed and the ECB may be able to disinflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing,"
- The US central bank has developed over time respect for its ability to tame price increases ...
Mtl JP 23:52:33 GMT - 08/02/2022
did bullard review his powerpoint presentation ?
Fed’s Bullard says
- soft landing is feasible in the U.S.
- U.S. can conquer high inflation and avoid a recession
- points to expectations that inflation will fall in the ‘months and years ahead’
- noted that inflation expectations by investors and consumers reflect the view that high inflation won’t persist for a long time.
- “Markets presently expect inflation to come under control in the quarters and years ahead,”
Mtl JP 23:13:17 GMT - 08/02/2022
CB 22:35 I could accept that as reasonable probability argument.
The belligerence's timing appears to be Washington's.
Beyond the public blather emanating from pelosi and her wahs compatriots, if you refer to my 08:47 aug 2 I suspect that an attempt at 'leadership regime change' is in initiated stage. IF my suspicion is correct, then Xi is naturally pizzed off to the Nth degree.
Chinese Art of War talks about such things as timing, choice of terrain and other "art"ful tactics. I expect china not be in a hurry to do something rash coz beyond injured ego they dont need to. they can play the long game and extract their pound of flesh later, at a more effective time for them and more inconvenient for washington. I suspect the likes of sullivan and his crew be on "attention" radar.
It looks, smells and sounds as war for regime change.
Q why I do not worry about, just is.
Q is ... which regime(s) winner / loser over the mid/L term
dc CB 22:35:45 GMT - 08/02/2022
Update(1545ET): It's the middle of the night local time, but China has announced the foreign ministry has summoned US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns in order to "protest" Pelosi's landing in Taiwan, where she's due to meet with Tsai Ing-wen in the morning. This as PLA military drills surrounding the self-ruled island are reported to be ongoing, including 'live fire' exercises.
According to a readout in state-run Global Times, "China's Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng summoned US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns overnight to protest against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan island late Tuesday night, stressing that the nature of Pelosi's visit is extremely vicious and the consequence is very grave. The Chinese side will not sit idly by."
Further GT writes, "Noting that the US government should have restrained Pelosi's unscrupulous move and prevented her from going against the historical trend but instead indulged her and colluded with her, which exacerbates the tension in the Taiwan Straits and seriously damages China-US ties, Xie said the US must pay the price for its own mistake. China will take necessary and resolute countermeasures and we mean what we say."
This "pay the price" warning will likely only be revealed in full, in terms of the options Beijing has in store for both Washington and Taipei, in the coming days or even weeks after Pelosi departs tomorrow. (ZH)
It is not where stocks start the day that is important it is where the market closes that determines the margin calls.
US Stagflation. US Twin deficits. Wars cost money.
Who is going to pay the bill?
Mtl JP 17:49:07 GMT - 08/02/2022
SnP 4080 - 4142 - 4105
usually called good violence
did xi grab pelosi somehow OR
FEDs come out with a higher caliber trumpet ?
dc CB 17:04:27 GMT - 08/02/2022
Yesterday, in our private twitter account for subscribers, we said that "if we can avoid a Pelosi World War, the buying impulse from CTAs and buybacks will only intensify", a view which was echoed this morning by JPM which said that "If There Is No Immediate Chinese Reaction To Pelosi Landing, Markets Rip Higher."
Well, now that Pelosi has landed and there are no mushroom cloud-shaped explosions, the only explosion is in the market where spoos just hit 4,136 and about to take out the Monday highs of 4,147...
daly said she is puzzled that financial markets appear to expect the Fed would stop raising interest rates — and even start lowering them — if the economy titled toward recession
dc CB 16:57:02 GMT - 08/02/2022
Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com
In bonds there is truth: Apple’s Jumbo $5.5 bln corporate bond deal hints of a firmer market to come. A clear divide between US Recovery and European Slowdown is increasingly apparent – a weaker Euro will further add to European problems.
Of all the signs and portents that drive the machinations of markets, perhaps the most significant yesterday was Apple tapping the corporate bond market for a 4 tranche $5.5 bln raise of AAA Bonds. In bonds there is truth….
Sooo everybody loaded on gold yet? Pelosi pelosi pelosi
Mtl JP 15:41:42 GMT - 08/02/2022
sofar pelosi is mouthing off about "supporting Taiwan’s vibrant Democracy,” and that “Our discussions with Taiwan leadership reaffirm our support for our partner & promote our shared interests, including advancing a free & open Indo-Pacific region.”
trying to make good xi's screams that his army “will not sit idly by”
Mtl JP 15:14:43 GMT - 08/02/2022
admittedly daly did not pick the best time to try to influence players
but wait .. there are more yakkers on deck:
- mester at 13hrs
-- bullard at 18:45
Mtl JP 14:50:18 GMT - 08/02/2022
bonds uP, yield down , dlryen uP at 131,55
chinese ego : oi-yo-yoy
Mtl JP 14:31:51 GMT - 08/02/2022
china will be publicly humiliated IF
SnP to say 4150+ ; 10-yr N of 3%
Mtl JP 14:21:32 GMT - 08/02/2022
is china firing wet noodles ?
GVI Forex13:52:14 GMT - 08/02/2022
Fed’s Daly sounding hawkish and pushing back on market expectations
Mtl JP 13:49:21 GMT - 08/02/2022
two best recession predictors
according to the FED
3-month vs 10-yr and / or 2-yr vs 10-yr
inverted yield curve
Mtl JP 13:27:32 GMT - 08/02/2022
giving "risk" bit of a phillip
up from 4085 to now circa 4101
Mtl JP 13:20:50 GMT - 08/02/2022
chinese spitting sulphur and fire currently just that
some type in Global Times: “Pelosi gets her way, our warplanes may fire shells diagonally ahead of Pelosi's plane as a further warning,”
markets sofar dozzzz-ing
Mtl JP 11:06:02 GMT - 08/02/2022
trading (with) pelosi
@Newsquawk - 21h
"Now tell them I'm going to Taiwan, those puts will fly"
Mtl JP 10:49:16 GMT - 08/02/2022
threat from abroad
that would be jake sullivan's domain of agitprop
from NYT f/page:
U.S. Warns China Not to Turn Pelosi’s Expected Taiwan Trip Into a ‘Crisis’
else what ? glad you asked:
Peter Baker concludes quoting Senator Marco Rubio. “We may have deep domestic political differences but we will respond with unbreakable unity if threatened from abroad.”
SnP 4098, LoD 4088
4080 still Sup
breach South would open up 4040 and 4K
Mtl JP 07:34:10 GMT - 08/02/2022
suggest Tena or Depends
President Biden @POTUS 16h
United States government official
You’ve heard me say it before.
55 of the Fortune 500 have paid no federal income taxes in 2020 – even though they made $40 billion in profits.
The Inflation Reduction Act will end that.
Mtl JP 22:34:54 GMT - 08/01/2022
**** ATTENTION PEASANTS ****
climate change and attribution to humans
THEME: if there were no humans who "burn fossil fuels for heating, driving, cooking, medical care and more" ...
THEY ... will be ... coming ... after ... you
what say you: in or pass ?
Apple Is Selling Bonds to Buy Back Stock
Mtl JP 17:01:03 GMT - 08/01/2022
"they" r so paranoid about the clown goofing up "they" had him infected again (wink wink) to have a plausible line to feed to the peasants that goes something like
"Biden in isolation, feeling 'well,' but continues to test positive with rebound" - ABC News
Mtl JP 16:52:49 GMT - 08/01/2022
"Does Biden want"
is bit rich, naïve
this clown cant tie his shoelaces by himself
dc CB 16:21:15 GMT - 08/01/2022
PAR 13:36 GMT
Taiwan. Does Biden want to start another war?
Michael Every of Rabobank
The flailing US --where President Biden has Covid (again) and is in one technical definition of recession-- can't back down as it tries to rebuild its leading role in Asia: if Pelosi doesn’t go to Taiwan, China will have ‘proven’ that it is able to control access to it, a red line which it would from then on likely enforce.
"risk" types, atm, appear euphoric at the prospect
Mtl JP 13:44:31 GMT - 08/01/2022
chinese sense of humor
maybe let her land in taiwan
but not take off and leave
watch pompeo try to ride to her "rescue"
PAR13:36:24 GMT - 08/01/2022
Taiwan. Does Biden want to start another war?
Mtl JP 13:34:13 GMT - 08/01/2022
SnP tagging 4100 again
4080 on radar
Mtl JP 13:28:59 GMT - 08/01/2022
who, besides pelosi and the pilot & navigator, are on the plane w/her ?
PAR13:24:07 GMT - 08/01/2022
US Futures are down hard as Nancy goes to Taiwan to plague China.
Mtl JP 13:21:24 GMT - 08/01/2022
puppy s butting up against Res price line here
it could go up some more but unlikely on some sudden fundamental epiphany of things politico-economic
I am biased.
I am looking for Sell opportunities.
Mtl JP 13:08:53 GMT - 08/01/2022
IMF, kashkari, inflation priority no. 1
early asia gap cleared
4100 s/t Sup
likely trgt 4080 once S busts
Mtl JP 22:38:21 GMT - 07/31/2022
early "risk" likely reacting a bit to neil's re-iterating his earlier proclamations that “We’re going to do everything we can to avoid a recession, but we are committed to bringing inflation down, and we are going to do what we need to do. We are a long way away from achieving an economy that is back at 2% inflation. And that’s where we need to get to.” - on sunday's Face the Nation
i.e. another 75bps-ter in the scope
Mtl JP 20:56:39 GMT - 07/31/2022
still trading themes: recession, inflation
dutifully responding to IMF's order to make taming inflation first priority for policymakers
Kashkari says (NYT July29, 2022)
- officials are �a long way� from backing off inflation fight.
Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the Fed had more work to do in trying to control price increases.
- persistent higher core inflation might push me to believe a 75bps move would be required
and WSJ keeping on holding onto the "Sacrifice Ratio" bone:
Quite high, if underlying inflation and the ‘natural’ unemployment rate have risen, some economists say
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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