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Mtl JP  00:06:22 GMT - 08/03/2022  
bullard now widely quoted saying

- "US Recession Not Going To Happen"

on one slide in his presentation:
- "Since modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s, it appears that both the Fed and the ECB may be able to disinflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing,"

- The US central bank has developed over time respect for its ability to tame price increases ...

Mtl JP  23:52:33 GMT - 08/02/2022  
did bullard review his powerpoint presentation ?
sounds discombobulated:
Fed’s Bullard says
- soft landing is feasible in the U.S.
- U.S. can conquer high inflation and avoid a recession
- points to expectations that inflation will fall in the ‘months and years ahead’
- noted that inflation expectations by investors and consumers reflect the view that high inflation won’t persist for a long time.
- “Markets presently expect inflation to come under control in the quarters and years ahead,”

Mtl JP  23:13:17 GMT - 08/02/2022  
CB 22:35 I could accept that as reasonable probability argument.

The belligerence's timing appears to be Washington's.
Beyond the public blather emanating from pelosi and her wahs compatriots, if you refer to my 08:47 aug 2 I suspect that an attempt at 'leadership regime change' is in initiated stage. IF my suspicion is correct, then Xi is naturally pizzed off to the Nth degree.

Chinese Art of War talks about such things as timing, choice of terrain and other "art"ful tactics. I expect china not be in a hurry to do something rash coz beyond injured ego they dont need to. they can play the long game and extract their pound of flesh later, at a more effective time for them and more inconvenient for washington. I suspect the likes of sullivan and his crew be on "attention" radar.

It looks, smells and sounds as war for regime change.
Q why I do not worry about, just is.
Q is ... which regime(s) winner / loser over the mid/L term

dc CB  22:35:45 GMT - 08/02/2022  
Update(1545ET): It's the middle of the night local time, but China has announced the foreign ministry has summoned US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns in order to "protest" Pelosi's landing in Taiwan, where she's due to meet with Tsai Ing-wen in the morning. This as PLA military drills surrounding the self-ruled island are reported to be ongoing, including 'live fire' exercises.

According to a readout in state-run Global Times, "China's Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng summoned US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns overnight to protest against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan island late Tuesday night, stressing that the nature of Pelosi's visit is extremely vicious and the consequence is very grave. The Chinese side will not sit idly by."

Further GT writes, "Noting that the US government should have restrained Pelosi's unscrupulous move and prevented her from going against the historical trend but instead indulged her and colluded with her, which exacerbates the tension in the Taiwan Straits and seriously damages China-US ties, Xie said the US must pay the price for its own mistake. China will take necessary and resolute countermeasures and we mean what we say."

This "pay the price" warning will likely only be revealed in full, in terms of the options Beijing has in store for both Washington and Taipei, in the coming days or even weeks after Pelosi departs tomorrow. (ZH)

dc CB  22:34:13 GMT - 08/02/2022  
Crude +2.165mm (+467k exp)
Cushing +653k
Gasoline -204k
Distillates -351k

PAR  20:30:34 GMT - 08/02/2022  

August is a bad month for US stocks.

Already 2 down days. Easy money.

Mtl JP  17:58:41 GMT - 08/02/2022  
Who is going to pay the bill?
better Q is Who is going to collect the bill
and position on the receiving side of the money flow
Profit Juicing 101

dc CB  17:56:22 GMT - 08/02/2022  
Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester said she saw "no signs of a recession" offering no dovish pivot signal by noting that "we have to get inflation under control."

To really drive the point home, Mester concluded that she "hasn't seen anything suggesting inflation is leveling off."

It wasn't until Mester's words that stocks paid attention, puking back all the "well, China didn't invade" relief rally...

PAR  17:54:22 GMT - 08/02/2022  
It is not where stocks start the day that is important it is where the market closes that determines the margin calls.

US Stagflation. US Twin deficits. Wars cost money.
Who is going to pay the bill?


Mtl JP  17:49:07 GMT - 08/02/2022  
SnP 4080 - 4142 - 4105
usually called good violence
did xi grab pelosi somehow OR
FEDs come out with a higher caliber trumpet ?

dc CB  17:04:27 GMT - 08/02/2022  
Yesterday, in our private twitter account for subscribers, we said that "if we can avoid a Pelosi World War, the buying impulse from CTAs and buybacks will only intensify", a view which was echoed this morning by JPM which said that "If There Is No Immediate Chinese Reaction To Pelosi Landing, Markets Rip Higher."

Well, now that Pelosi has landed and there are no mushroom cloud-shaped explosions, the only explosion is in the market where spoos just hit 4,136 and about to take out the Monday highs of 4,147...

CTAs Flip Long, Unleash Buying Frenzy

Mtl JP  16:59:17 GMT - 08/02/2022  
daly said she is puzzled that financial markets appear to expect the Fed would stop raising interest rates — and even start lowering them — if the economy titled toward recession

dc CB  16:57:02 GMT - 08/02/2022  
Authored by Bill Blain via

In bonds there is truth: Apple’s Jumbo $5.5 bln corporate bond deal hints of a firmer market to come. A clear divide between US Recovery and European Slowdown is increasingly apparent – a weaker Euro will further add to European problems.

Of all the signs and portents that drive the machinations of markets, perhaps the most significant yesterday was Apple tapping the corporate bond market for a 4 tranche $5.5 bln raise of AAA Bonds. In bonds there is truth….

Apple's Bond Was A Critical Moment - Sell Euro, Buy Dollars!

Mtl JP  16:43:54 GMT - 08/02/2022  
SnP 4140 & rocking
1) Daly: The Fed is “nowhere near” being done in its fight against inflation
2) Evans: open to a rate increase of 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points in Sep

stox making daly and evans market jawboning "minor league" to put it politely

Mtl JP  16:21:05 GMT - 08/02/2022  
10 yr is up almost 20bp from the low today
and stocks holding uP
that ... is irrationally illogical
nevermind "erasing early losses tied to rising U.S.-China tensions"

Mtl JP  16:07:58 GMT - 08/02/2022  
DLRx 105.75
holding Sup 104.9ish price
seems resilient

Jkt Abel  15:48:52 GMT - 08/02/2022  
Sooo everybody loaded on gold yet? Pelosi pelosi pelosi

Mtl JP  15:41:42 GMT - 08/02/2022  
sofar pelosi is mouthing off about "supporting Taiwan’s vibrant Democracy,” and that “Our discussions with Taiwan leadership reaffirm our support for our partner & promote our shared interests, including advancing a free & open Indo-Pacific region.”

trying to make good xi's screams that his army “will not sit idly by”

Mtl JP  15:14:43 GMT - 08/02/2022  
admittedly daly did not pick the best time to try to influence players
but wait .. there are more yakkers on deck:
- mester at 13hrs
-- bullard at 18:45

Mtl JP  14:50:18 GMT - 08/02/2022  
bonds uP, yield down , dlryen uP at 131,55
chinese ego : oi-yo-yoy

Mtl JP  14:31:51 GMT - 08/02/2022  
china will be publicly humiliated IF
SnP to say 4150+ ; 10-yr N of 3%

Mtl JP  14:21:32 GMT - 08/02/2022  
is china firing wet noodles ?

GVI Forex 13:52:14 GMT - 08/02/2022  
Fed’s Daly sounding hawkish and pushing back on market expectations

Mtl JP  13:49:21 GMT - 08/02/2022  
two best recession predictors
according to the FED
3-month vs 10-yr and / or 2-yr vs 10-yr
inverted yield curve
10-yr 2.59%
3-month 2.494
2-yr 2.933

Mtl JP  13:27:32 GMT - 08/02/2022  
10-yr 2.59%
giving "risk" bit of a phillip
up from 4085 to now circa 4101

Mtl JP  13:20:50 GMT - 08/02/2022  
chinese spitting sulphur and fire currently just that
some type in Global Times: “Pelosi gets her way, our warplanes may fire shells diagonally ahead of Pelosi's plane as a further warning,”

markets sofar dozzzz-ing

Mtl JP  11:06:02 GMT - 08/02/2022  
trading (with) pelosi
@Newsquawk - 21h
"Now tell them I'm going to Taiwan, those puts will fly"

Mtl JP  10:49:16 GMT - 08/02/2022  
threat from abroad
that would be jake sullivan's domain of agitprop
from NYT f/page:
U.S. Warns China Not to Turn Pelosi’s Expected Taiwan Trip Into a ‘Crisis’

else what ? glad you asked:

Peter Baker concludes quoting Senator Marco Rubio. “We may have deep domestic political differences but we will respond with unbreakable unity if threatened from abroad.”

U.S. Warns China

GVI Forex 09:04:30 GMT - 08/02/2022  
look at the day ahead in markets from Anshuman Daga

Just as markets seemed to factor in a less hawkish Federal Reserve and relief for economies and businesses, politics is playing spoilsport.

Morning Bid: In pursuit of Pelosi's plane

Mtl JP  07:40:50 GMT - 08/02/2022  
SnP 4098, LoD 4088
4080 still Sup
breach South would open up 4040 and 4K

Mtl JP  07:34:10 GMT - 08/02/2022  
suggest Tena or Depends
President Biden @POTUS 16h

United States government official
You’ve heard me say it before.

55 of the Fortune 500 have paid no federal income taxes in 2020 – even though they made $40 billion in profits.

The Inflation Reduction Act will end that.

Mtl JP  22:34:54 GMT - 08/01/2022  
climate change and attribution to humans
THEME: if there were no humans who "burn fossil fuels for heating, driving, cooking, medical care and more" ...
THEY ... will be ... coming ... after ... you

Without human-caused climate change temperatures of 40°C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely
(co-authored by Dr Friederike Otto, Faculty of Natural Sciences, The Grantham Institute for Climate Change

and nevermind that "The wealthiest 1% of the world’s population were responsible for the emission of more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the poorer half of the world from 1990 to 2015,

OR that

"Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries." - The Lancet, 2015

Israel MacroMicro  22:24:58 GMT - 08/01/2022  

Mtl JP  21:57:27 GMT - 08/01/2022  
"they" have planned for joe, at 7:30pm eastern,
"to give a speech on Monday evening about a successful counterterrorism operation" - White House statement

Israel MacroMicro  21:41:58 GMT - 08/01/2022  
$XHB (ETF) traded on Arca exchange


Mtl JP  19:54:36 GMT - 08/01/2022  
by convention
"housing market represents about 15% to 18% of U.S. GDP"

Mtl JP  19:50:31 GMT - 08/01/2022  
DLRx 105.30, 10-yr 2.6060, crude 93.76

I think (?) market sees a recession
and plays as such.

makes for fun day at the "policymakers" office

Israel MacroMicro  18:35:45 GMT - 08/01/2022  
gets more interesting by the second, due to their success in Ukraine now Taiwan on their list to use right some British tax payers money to pay the trips:

Mtl JP  17:51:32 GMT - 08/01/2022  
what say you: in or pass ?
Apple Is Selling Bonds to Buy Back Stock

Mtl JP  17:01:03 GMT - 08/01/2022  
Isolate, Isolation,
"they" r so paranoid about the clown goofing up "they" had him infected again (wink wink) to have a plausible line to feed to the peasants that goes something like
"Biden in isolation, feeling 'well,' but continues to test positive with rebound" - ABC News

Mtl JP  16:52:49 GMT - 08/01/2022  
"Does Biden want"
is bit rich, naïve

this clown cant tie his shoelaces by himself

dc CB  16:21:15 GMT - 08/01/2022  
PAR 13:36 GMT
Taiwan. Does Biden want to start another war?
Michael Every of Rabobank

The flailing US --where President Biden has Covid (again) and is in one technical definition of recession-- can't back down as it tries to rebuild its leading role in Asia: if Pelosi doesn’t go to Taiwan, China will have ‘proven’ that it is able to control access to it, a red line which it would from then on likely enforce.

If Pelosi Now Chickens Out And Doesn't Go To Taiwan, China Will Have Proven It Controls Access To It

Mtl JP  15:33:26 GMT - 08/01/2022  
POOF !! eureka: suddenly "they" know what a woman is
"A new mother typically spends 1,800 hours expressing milk, or breastfeeding, during her baby’s first year"

‘We are putting women in impossible situations’: Returning to work while breastfeeding is a major challenge for new mothers. Lawmakers propose federal legislation to help

Mtl JP  13:58:53 GMT - 08/01/2022  
bond types, by way of yield curve, say: recession

"risk" types, atm, appear euphoric at the prospect

Mtl JP  13:44:31 GMT - 08/01/2022  
chinese sense of humor
maybe let her land in taiwan
but not take off and leave
watch pompeo try to ride to her "rescue"

PAR 13:36:24 GMT - 08/01/2022  
Taiwan. Does Biden want to start another war?

Mtl JP  13:34:13 GMT - 08/01/2022  
SnP tagging 4100 again

4080 on radar

Mtl JP  13:28:59 GMT - 08/01/2022  
who, besides pelosi and the pilot & navigator, are on the plane w/her ?

pompeo ?

PAR 13:24:07 GMT - 08/01/2022  
US Futures are down hard as Nancy goes to Taiwan to plague China.

Mtl JP  13:21:24 GMT - 08/01/2022  
EURO 1.0260
puppy s butting up against Res price line here
it could go up some more but unlikely on some sudden fundamental epiphany of things politico-economic

I am biased.
I am looking for Sell opportunities.
Patiently, opportunistically.

Mtl JP  13:08:53 GMT - 08/01/2022  
"risk" 4104
IMF, kashkari, inflation priority no. 1
early asia gap cleared
4100 s/t Sup
likely trgt 4080 once S busts

Mtl JP  22:38:21 GMT - 07/31/2022  
IMF ordered
kashkari obeys
early "risk" likely reacting a bit to neil's re-iterating his earlier proclamations that “We’re going to do everything we can to avoid a recession, but we are committed to bringing inflation down, and we are going to do what we need to do. We are a long way away from achieving an economy that is back at 2% inflation. And that’s where we need to get to.” - on sunday's Face the Nation

i.e. another 75bps-ter in the scope

Mtl JP  20:56:39 GMT - 07/31/2022  
still trading themes: recession, inflation
dutifully responding to IMF's order to make taming inflation first priority for policymakers
Kashkari says (NYT July29, 2022)
- officials are �a long way� from backing off inflation fight.
Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the Fed had more work to do in trying to control price increases.
and that
- persistent higher core inflation might push me to believe a 75bps move would be required

and WSJ keeping on holding onto the "Sacrifice Ratio" bone:
Quite high, if underlying inflation and the ‘natural’ unemployment rate have risen, some economists say

Lower Inflation Likely Requires Higher Unemployment; How High Is the Question

Mtl JP  13:39:05 GMT - 07/28/2022  
DLRx 106.40, "risk" R circa 4140
thematically players probably still gaming meek FED

Mtl JP  12:33:37 GMT - 07/28/2022  
0.9% contraction

Mtl JP  12:14:53 GMT - 07/28/2022  
redefining recession
at bottom of hour
8:30 Gross domestic product, first release (SAAR) Q2 0.3%
another feed has 0.5%

janet "not a recession" yellen holds press conf today
theme: the sky is not falling. the sky is the limit

Mtl JP  10:53:41 GMT - 07/28/2022  
profit$ in the greening hand-out line
Germany Approves $180 Billion Funding to Accelerate Energy Shift

Germany approved plans for the government’s special “climate and transformation fund” to invest 177.5 billion euros ($180 billion) over the next four years to help accelerate bla bla bla

India RBI Suggests Voluntary Green Finance Targets for Banks

India’s central bank has suggested financial institutions scale up green lending and voluntarily set up green finance targets to mitigate risks arising out of climate change. ...

Mtl JP  09:42:59 GMT - 07/28/2022  
abel 05:34 to some, 05:32, cooki contain no fortune
born blood type: sour

jkt abel  05:34:43 GMT - 07/28/2022  
MM, you didnt subscribe for free AT+prop firm deal?

Israel MacroMicro  05:32:46 GMT - 07/28/2022  
it will be difficult for USD/JPY to get under 134.50 before another (last one?) visit > 138.20. I can imagine such happening within 2-3 weeks from now.

all those AT subscribers must get wiped first from their "easy money always right" concept :)

Bangkok KC  04:35:51 GMT - 07/28/2022  
ab// I agree with you. I plan to hold short usd/jpy position until September. I am pretty sure my 127 final target will be reach earlier before Sept.

For GBP, it should reach 1.24 by the end of next week. If not, I will close all GBP trade.

hk ab  03:39:26 GMT - 07/28/2022  
KC, imvho, the usd retracement will be over after summer..........

but yen may continue the dip as it has September to help you.

Wonder tokyo boj has taken his profit or not yesterday.

Under 135 can discuss about 132.

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