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GVI 20:41:51 GMT - 08/17/2022  
Spin on Fed minutes

Fed Plans More Rate Hikes. Then It Sees a Potential Pause.



dc CB  19:21:38 GMT - 08/17/2022  
 
Game Over

CDC Announces Overhaul After Botching Pandemic

Director Rochelle Walensky began telling CDC’s staff Wednesday that the changes are aimed at replacing the agency’s insular, academic culture with one that’s quicker to respond to emergencies. That will mean more rapidly turning research into health recommendations, working better with other parts of government and improving how the CDC communicates with the public. -Bloomberg
_________________________________________________
Expired: Trust the science

Wired: Trust the restructuring https://t.co/JL4G0JQOel
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 17, 2022


Mtl JP  17:20:52 GMT - 08/17/2022  
are you ready
-
top of the hour FED's minutes

to make or lose
maahney


PAR 12:49:58 GMT - 08/17/2022  
A strong economy and dovish FED. What more do we want?


Mtl JP  12:42:03 GMT - 08/17/2022  
so now the FED gang knows how to best finetune the words of their minutes to "guide" players in their expectation of the FED's determinedly fighting inflation


Mtl JP  11:29:53 GMT - 08/17/2022  
 
tradeables
-
08:30nyt - US retail sales

headline hints have been suggesting consumers are spending
(reasons do not matter; matters only that they are spending)

IF ret sales come in "HOT" it is exactly kind of music the FED gang wants to rational-justify hiking int rate.

In that case trading theory says:
- int rate uP = risk down


Mtl JP  03:09:24 GMT - 08/17/2022  
USDCAD 1.2848
-
CBC 08/16/2022 - Canadian parliamentarians planning fall visit to Taiwan
Members of Parliament's standing committee on international trade are planning a trip to Taiwan as early as October, says the group's chair Liberal MP Judy Sgro.


Mtl JP  21:57:17 GMT - 08/16/2022  
end of crypto original purpose
-
Reuters - Federal Reserve issues guidance for banks considering crypto activities
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday issued additional guidance for banks considering activities involving cryptocurrencies, emphasizing that firms must notify the Fed beforehand and make sure whatever they do is legally permitted.

POOF ! crypto


Mtl JP  20:45:46 GMT - 08/16/2022  
 
greek to you. just common sense to me.

ya believe history will repeat ?


dc CB  20:23:47 GMT - 08/16/2022  
dc CB 21:10 GMT 08/15/2022
US 'consumer' earnings reports next two days---Before Mkt Open.
Tues: Home Depot, Walmart.
Wed: Lowes, Target.
______________________________________________

It was setting up to be a quiet day, with futures drifting lower from their 4,300+ highs hit on Monday, when this morning Walmart's blowout results (at least relatively to sharply lower expectations) and guidance hike sent the stock of the retailer soaring...... lifting all heavily-shorted consumer discretionary stocks

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-meme-meltup-sparks-marketwide-squeeze-until-hartnett-says-sell


dc CB  20:18:12 GMT - 08/16/2022  

ES---mini futures--- high 4327.5 at 2PM----sold off hard for the next half hour

chart



dc CB  20:11:43 GMT - 08/16/2022  
Nomura Warns Of "Lumpy Gamma" Set To Expire This Friday

...the reality of the Equities price-action is not even about “past peak inflation” and this “cutting of the left-tail”...

Instead, Equities continues to be about “mechanical” flows in the market, particularly:

The magnitude of Options Dealer $Gamma which is stifling Vol, with big “gravity” at the 4300 strike being the largest on the board ($5.33B

More 'it's Greek to me'



dc CB  20:07:23 GMT - 08/16/2022  
BofA's Michael Hartnett, the most accurate strategist on Wall Street who one month ago called the meltup, has a simple message: fade SPX >4328... (ZH)

ES---mini futures--- high 4327.5 at 2PM----sold off hard for the next half hour

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-no-longer-apocalyptic-wall-streets-most-accurate-strategist-says-start-shorting-sp-now


Mtl JP  17:24:48 GMT - 08/16/2022  
DJIA 34200-ish; 10-yr 2.83
IF jerome "could be appropriate" was intended to scare players it appears to be suffering marketing dilemma
-
something is wrong either with FED's communication n guidance
OR
something is wrong with players' cognition of FED's communication n guidance

think the FED gang is last-minute massaging the minutes (?)



Mtl JP  15:18:02 GMT - 08/16/2022  
I m from the gov't and I am here to help / save you
-
“The Biden-Harris Administration will continue to stand up for borrowers who’ve been cheated by their colleges, while working to strengthen oversight and enforcement to protect today’s students from similar deception and abuse,” To date, the Biden-Harris Administration has approved the cancellation of nearly $32 billion in student loans for 1.6 million borrowers. .../..

curious mind would like to know:
what about the fraud perpetrators at ITT Tech ?

Biden administration cancels $3.9 billion in student debt for 208,000 borrowers defrauded by ITT Tech



Mtl JP  14:39:59 GMT - 08/16/2022  
EURO 1.019x

GVI Forex 11:48 GMT October 25, 2021
The forex market is on a never ending quest to run stops.


ya... quest lol


Mtl JP  14:27:30 GMT - 08/16/2022  
usd slips

OR euro rallies
is there a difference ?


GVI Forex 14:18:02 GMT - 08/16/2022  
Yields up

FX not paying attention as usd slips

jpy the underperformer

Stocks undecided

August trading


Mtl JP  13:53:54 GMT - 08/16/2022  
EURO 1.0165
-
up around Res price point
I am biased. Biased down.

puppy would need to race uP N of 1.0200/20+ to change mood


Mtl JP  13:30:59 GMT - 08/16/2022  
 
trade call anyone ?

NZDUSD .6326
RBNZ this evening
-
50bps expected n priced


Mtl JP  13:24:43 GMT - 08/16/2022  
 
us "risk" looking somewhat weak(er) atm while DLR has a bit of upside flavor to it

opportunistically scalping day for me


Mtl JP  12:53:08 GMT - 08/16/2022  
no guarantee but today should be a nothingburger type trading day
ahead of tom's fed's minutes.

as players voluntarily set themselves for thrall to the FED gang and see if they parse odds of another jerome 75bps hike that "could be appropriate"
something that , lest players forget, should be "incoming data driven"


Mtl JP  12:01:17 GMT - 08/16/2022  
US 10-yr US 10-YR 2.806% +0.015
-
Bond types still not "getting it"


Mtl JP  11:39:36 GMT - 08/16/2022  
 
DLRx, Euro, "risk"
-
price lines in the sand
resting, breathing, waiting for ...
a catalyst


GVI 09:37:41 GMT - 08/16/2022  
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

While global stocks are still hovering near multi-month highs, despite a batch of bad economic data from China, worries about a sharp slowdown in growth are keeping them rangebound.

Morning Bid: Growth pangs linger



Mtl JP  02:17:06 GMT - 08/16/2022  
EURO 1.0166
-
it is now possible "they" are going to try to scare shorts from 1.0200/15-ish


dc CB  21:10:35 GMT - 08/15/2022  
US 'consumer' earnings reports next two days---Before Mkt Open.
Tues: Home Depot, Walmart.
Wed: Lowes, Target.


dc CB  19:43:07 GMT - 08/15/2022  
Time to visit the Oracle at Delphi---to take this trade or not.

Nomura Warns This Week's OpEx Is "Real": Massive Amount Of Delta Could Spark "De-Risking Flow"

Greek speak



dc CB  19:25:08 GMT - 08/15/2022  
fyi----OPEX week.

next week will start pre-positioning for the 'next' sell off---Sept brings post vacation depression stage in this bi-polar mkt/press.

Polyticks crawling out of the waining summer grasses ready to suck some blood.


dc CB  18:36:17 GMT - 08/15/2022  
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla Tests Positive For COVID-19

“I would like to let you know that I have tested positive for COVID19...”
Bourla 60, says he has received four doses of his company’s COVID-19 vaccine.
The CEO is isolating and has begun taking a course of Paxlovid, Pfizer’s COVID-19 pill.


Mtl JP  18:16:18 GMT - 08/15/2022  
EURO 1.0157
-
while under 1.02 puppy has down-ward momentum
looking for test-trgting 1.01-ish


Mtl JP  09:31:30 GMT - 08/15/2022  
EURO 1.0188
-
thank you growth and recession (river Rhine) and energy supply (greta, vlad & co.,) drivers in EU's outlook


Mtl JP  09:19:39 GMT - 08/15/2022  
may ...
oh the drama ! the tension !
-
Fed Minutes May Reveal Inclinations on Size of Next Rate Hike
(Bloomberg) August 14, 2022 -- An account of the debate at the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, set to be published after two weeks of whiplash on Wall Street, will probably offer clues as to what would push the central bank to go big with tightening yet again in September.


Mtl JP  08:51:39 GMT - 08/15/2022  
EURO 1.0208
-
the current known unknown is if 1.02 will - or not - hold S


GVI 07:46:02 GMT - 08/15/2022  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Anshuman Daga

Just as investors were starting to get more confident about a soft landing for the world's largest economy, with strong jobs growth and cooling inflation, China is playing spoilsport.

Morning Bid: Fasten your seat belts



Mtl JP  20:38:32 GMT - 08/12/2022  
NIKKEI225 28735; FTSE1007524; DAX30 13873.5, CAC40 6604.5
-
An Invitation To Play The Future Tense Verb Conjugation Game

after

* S&P 500 Rallies, Capping Fourth Straight Week of Gains
* Dow jumps 400 points as S&P 500, Nasdaq clinch longest winning streak since November
* S&P 500 ends 1.7% higher; Nasdaq Composite jumps 2.1%
* Dow finishes with gain of over 420 points, or 1.3%
* Stocks end sharply higher as S&P 500 books 4th straight weekly gain
* Treasury yields end higher for second straight week after U.S. consumer-sentiment data

the above Friday end-of-week headline hints

What will be some headlines from Asia and Europe on Monday morning heading into NY session:


Mtl JP  18:41:04 GMT - 08/12/2022  
dc CB perish the dream of europe learning: it does not yet hurt enough
besides ... there is a million mile + chasm between european princes and european peasants. the peasants do not know that. they think the princes have the peasants' best interest at heart.
-
In the land of my cousin and the petulant one: "Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist (S) does not rule out that Sweden will manufacture weapons for Ukraine".

On an earlier note from same def min: from aug 12th Sweden is sending 120 instructors to UK to combat- train ukrainian civilians.

Civilians. IF you were a military intelligence type what could you draw from that, ya think, about ukrainian state of tactical military affairs - shades of hitler sending 13-15yr old boys to the front as replacements for exhausted 'n dessimated army ?


dc CB  17:48:24 GMT - 08/12/2022  
 
... perhaps Europe will finally learn its lesson that listening to petulant Scandinavian teenagers for energy policy, while glorious for virtue signaling, is also as dumb as it gets. Then again, it is Europe... (ZH)


Mtl JP  16:44:26 GMT - 08/12/2022  
"it is worth it"
-
Winter diesel shock looms as tanks dry up ahead of sanctions

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Europe is heading into winter with seasonally low levels of diesel in storage tanks, with major implications for the continent's industries and drivers in the run-up to EU sanctions on Russian crude oil and refined product supplies.


Mtl JP  16:31:53 GMT - 08/12/2022  
 
DLRx 105.60
according to barkin's interpreter jeff cox

* Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Friday that more interest rate increases will be needed to tamp down inflation.

* Barkin said he wants to see inflation running around 2% “for a period of time.” The current level is far from that goal.

Markets are divided over whether the Fed will increase by three-quarters of a point in September or scale down to half a point, with traders tilting slightly toward the latter, according to CME Group data Friday morning.

Whichever is the case, Barkin said acting aggressively now is important. He said his constituents are deeply concerned about inflation and want action from the Fed.

“Consumers really dislike inflation, and one message that I get loud and clear as I wander around my district is, ‘we don’t like inflation,’” he said.

Fed’s Barkin says rate increases need to continue until inflation holds at 2%



dc CB  15:17:34 GMT - 08/12/2022  
 
Mtl JP 12:38 GMT
new orders for peasants
-
People who are exposed to the virus no longer need to...

And just like that, the hysteria was over.


Mtl JP  14:06:15 GMT - 08/12/2022  
EURO 1.0257
-
BELOW 1.0274-ish puppy loses upside momentum
S around 1.0215/10/00


Mtl JP  13:19:01 GMT - 08/12/2022  
EURO 1.0274
-
puppy frolicking around its 40-day

1.0360/70 now Res


Mtl JP  12:38:15 GMT - 08/12/2022  
new orders for peasants
-
People who are exposed to the virus no longer need to quarantine at home, regardless of their vaccination status, according to the new guidelines, but they should wear a mask for 10 days and get tested for the virus on day 5.

The new guidelines eliminate quarantines and put less emphasis on social distancing, routine surveillance testing and contact tracing.

C.D.C. Eases Covid Guidelines, Noting Virus Is ‘Here to Stay’ - NYT Aug. 11, 2022



Mtl JP  12:05:40 GMT - 08/12/2022  
 
DLRx 105.40
FED's primary goal vs market players betting
communication vs voluntary mis-understanding
hubris vs hubris vs quick learning
fight or not the fed
-
current priceaction suggests, to me , that players are now pricing an "I don't know" (50-50 odds) of 50 or 75 bps FED hike next.


Mtl JP  20:16:35 GMT - 08/11/2022  
Ten- and 30-year Treasury yields soared on Thursday after the latest signs of easing U.S. inflation buttressed a more optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, the spread between 2- and 10-year rates narrowed to minus 34.1 basis points, a less deeply inverted level than earlier this week.

Markets are pricing in a 59.5% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points to a range between 2.75% and 3% at its Sept. 20-21 meeting. The central bank is mostly expected to lift borrowing costs to at least a range of 3.5% to 3.75% by March, according to fed funds futures traders.

By Vivien Lou Chen and Jamie Chisholm



Mtl JP  19:12:08 GMT - 08/11/2022  
darn ... they "struggle"
maybe on "doubt" or suddenly getting evans, daly's or kashkarian's "religion"

"Nasdaq, S&P 500 turn negative, rally in stocks on Thursday loses steam"



Mtl JP  14:16:56 GMT - 08/11/2022  
 
DLRx 104.60
and under t-line Sup
-
without going into various futures valuations complications what this picture sums up to me is that earlier evans' inflation still “unacceptably high” and that more rate hikes would be needed is not being heeded by players.

which would indicated one or both of two possible choice how get the DLR to find a floor and potentially recover some:

1) more moRE forceful blabla from the FED gang
2) more moRE crap(ier) news from Europe

In the s/t meantime down direction in the dollar still market bias


Mtl JP  12:31:51 GMT - 08/11/2022  
 
10-Yr 2.7560
-
currently risk players laughing with the FED gang


GVI Forex 12:24:02 GMT - 08/11/2022  
Markets setting up for a softer PPI.


Mtl JP  11:47:48 GMT - 08/11/2022  
 
diplomacy: some have it. some don't

what's behind "bully"
- feels insignificant
-- feels unimportant and left out, lonely
--- has problem(s) at "home"
---- feels not smart, attractive or worthy enough
----- is jealous (of popularity of another)
------ bullies in group - wants sense of "security"
------- some bullies because of big ego
-------- some want to be center of attention (indispensable fantasy)
--------- sometimes bully is intolerant of difference (race, sexuality, disability or _ _ _ )
-
the chinese , when travelling around the world in the days vasco de gamma, would offer gestures of food and/or gold when landing on a new beach. the portugese would capture a native, cut off the head and plant it on a astick in the sand with demands to the natives to bring riches else Mtl JP

The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned African countries last week not to purchase anything from Russia besides grain and fertilizer, or else they could face sanctions. ... "We caution countries not to break those sanctions because then… they stand the chance of having actions taken against them," she added.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns countries subverting sanctions imposed on Russia that they'll face consequences for their actions. April 13, 2022

"You're either with us or against us in the fight against terror." - George W. Bush Nov 2001


"Thomas-Greenfield’s warning demonstrates the US approach of using force to get the results that it wants, which has been backfiring on Washington, and drawing countries closer to China and Russia."

US Threatens African Nations With Sanctions If They Buy Russian Products Other Than Grain - Dave DeCamp



GVI Forex 10:34:20 GMT - 08/11/2022  
Next key event is US PPI in about 2 hours, not as important as CPI but is forecast to be lower vs prior month


Mtl JP  18:55:18 GMT - 08/10/2022  
Kashkari says
-
* suggestion that central bank will cut interest-rates early next year 'is not realistic'

* July CPI data is 'first hint' that inflation is starting to move in right direction

* continues to believe that the U.S. central bank will need to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023 to fight inflation

* the Fed is "far, far away from declaring victory"

* ‘We Are Going To Get Inflation Down To 2%’
- - Recession Risk ‘Would Not Deter Me From Doing What's Needed’


dc CB  17:41:20 GMT - 08/10/2022  
dc CB 13:45 GMT 08/10/2022
There is a 10Y auction at 1pm EDT....so this CPI print is welcome news for Gammy Yellen
______________________________________________

today's sale of $35BN in paper came in at 2.755%, down from 2.94% in July and the 2nd consecutive decline; the yield also stopped through the 2.7610% When Issued by 0.6bps

Overall, this was a 2nd consecutive stellar 10Y auction which just like inflation, has seen yields top and are now sliding fast as the US economy is headed for a recession, an outcome which will send 10Y yields far lower from here even as the curve inverts to even more grotesque levels.

Tomorrow the 30Y auction

CPI Miss With One Of The Strongest 10Y Auctions In History



Mtl JP  17:09:37 GMT - 08/10/2022  
 
DLRx 104.84

potential development
break under S t-line


Mtl JP  16:11:25 GMT - 08/10/2022  
forewarned = fore-armed:
Under the government’s latest “reasonable worst-case scenario,”
-
Bloomberg Aug 9, 2022
UK Plans for Blackouts in January in Emergency Energy Plan
- Reasonable worst-case scenario envisages 4-day power shortfall
- Industry, households could face planned power outages


Mtl JP  15:54:21 GMT - 08/10/2022  
fresh from the optometrist
Evans says
-
* sees central bank raising benchmark interest rate to range of 3.25% to 3.5% by end of year, and then up to 3.75%-4% range in 2023


Israel MacroMicro  15:47:10 GMT - 08/10/2022  
Ahmed said:
_________________________________________
Israel MacroMicro 13:39 GMT August 9, 2022
mkt: Reply
opened long NQ @ 13040

for 18/30 hours from now

let's see
__________________________________________


Israel MacroMicro  15:29:51 GMT - 08/10/2022  

ALERT
Entry: Target: Stop:
NQ longs for 18/30 hours since 13040 and lower hold nice pips for living now, take action!

bye 👋


Mtl JP  15:29:48 GMT - 08/10/2022  
Evans says
-
* sees interest-rate hikes continuing for the rest of the year and into next year

* July CPI data ‘the first positive report’

* ‘I’m not looking for the economy to turn down in a significant fashion’


dc CB  14:51:27 GMT - 08/10/2022  
DOE
Crude +5.457mm (-400k exp)
Cushing +723k
Gasoline -4.978mm
Distillates +2.166mm

After the prior week's surprise build, analysts expected a small draw this week (while API reported another sizable build). However, analysts were seriously wrong with crude inventories rising by 5.457mm. Cushing stocks are also up for the 6th straight week.(ZH)


Mtl JP  13:46:34 GMT - 08/10/2022  
GBP 1.2197
-
puppy is a sell under 1.2250 and 1.22

**

headlines:
U.S. stocks open sharply higher after inflation report for July came in below forecast
S&P 500 opens 1.4% higher; Nasdaq Composite jumps 2.3%
Dow industrials up 455 points, or 1.4%

11:00 evans on economy and mon policy
14:00 kashkari on "inflation"


dc CB  13:45:22 GMT - 08/10/2022  
There is a 10Y auction at 1pm EDT....so this CPI print is welcome news for Gammy Yellen


dc CB  13:42:26 GMT - 08/10/2022  
Market wide the Viagra kicked in @ 8:30AM EDT----ZeroHedge tweeted --'who leaked'

The boners are starting to droop---Crude, Silver. At the cash open looking like the NazzyDak has shot its load.


PAR 13:24:33 GMT - 08/10/2022  
"Significant Material Cost Increases": Ford Hikes Prices Of EV Truck By Up To $7,000
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, AUG 10, 2022 - 02:20 PM

Ford Motor Company is the latest automaker to announce a price hike for its electric vehicle (EV) due to "significant material cost increases and other factors."

The Detroit automaker adjusted the MSRP on the F-150 Lightning for the first time since it was revealed in the spring of 2021. Since then, industrial metal prices for batteries, including nickel, manganese, cobalt, and lithium, have jumped, forcing the automaker to raise the new EV truck prices by up to $7,000, depending on the model.


Mtl JP  13:01:31 GMT - 08/10/2022  
 
happy gillmore
-
need to see "compelling evidence"


Mtl JP  11:58:09 GMT - 08/10/2022  
GBP 1.2120
-
R 1.2135-40
S 1.2060


Mtl JP  08:36:11 GMT - 08/10/2022  
update tuning the fiddle for
8:30 a.m. ET concert
-
CPI expectation +0.2% vs +1.3% in June
y/y 8.7% in July vs 9.1% in June
core y/y CPI expectation: 6.1% vs 5.9% for the 12 months that ended in June

core strips out volatile food and energy costs.


Mtl JP  08:20:05 GMT - 08/10/2022  
 
GBP 1.2083
..."75,000 people have pledged"...
current: 96,64x and +
-
“a tragedy for many, many people.”
The typical household is expected to spend the equivalent of £4,266 on energy each year from January.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said it would be up to his successor to make decisions on the matter.

YESSS ! "I am from the gov't and here to help"

‘A tragedy’: Britain’s cost-of-living crisis worsens as rents soar and energy bills top $5,000



Mtl JP  07:59:35 GMT - 08/10/2022  
tuning the fiddle for
8:30 a.m. ET concert
-
CPI expectation +0.2% vs +1.3% in June
y/y 8.7% in July vs 9.1% in June


Mtl JP  07:48:03 GMT - 08/10/2022  
2-yr 3.2699%; 10-yr 2.7992%; 30-yr 3.0098%
-
Reuters - Demand for FX derivatives jumps as central banks prep rate rises - CME Group

"conditions are ripe for larger-than-expected (rate) increases, which market participants are clearly preparing for." - CME Group senior economist Erik Norland


Mtl JP  07:39:31 GMT - 08/10/2022  
double Depends time schadenfreude
-
“When we were turning out big profits, I became somewhat delirious, and looking back at myself now, I am quite embarrassed and remorseful,” CEO Masayoshi Son at a press conference on Monday.

because “the market and the world is in confusion”


Mtl JP  07:28:31 GMT - 08/10/2022  
CRUDE 89.40
-
IF puppy does not hold S here
3 more down-bux come trgt radar


Mtl JP  06:59:22 GMT - 08/10/2022  
DLRx 106.17
on deck today
-
US CPI
Evans & Kashkari


dc CB  21:05:25 GMT - 08/09/2022  
API

Crude +2.156mm (-400k exp)

Cushing -627k

Gasoline +910k

Distillates 1.376mm


Mtl JP  18:49:38 GMT - 08/09/2022  
corr.: below60 40 and then 00


Mtl JP  18:33:36 GMT - 08/09/2022  
GBP 1.2068
-
circa 40K/yr pound schoolteacher screaming civil dis-obedience already ?
maybe because IMF does not consider her as one of the have-nots worthy of selective govvy subsidy instructions ?

technically
1.2065 should be S
below 60 and then 00

or maybe euro will sympathy-heave next instead of the pound


dc CB  18:06:49 GMT - 08/09/2022  
The internals were also solid with Indirects awarded 63.1% of the auction, the highest since February, and obviously well above the six-auction average of 58.5.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-low-dealers-stellar-stopping-through-3y-treasury-auction


Mtl JP  14:10:00 GMT - 08/09/2022  
GBP 1.2110
clueless & whimpi
-
earlier BoE's Ramsden - MSc Economics - "For me personally, I do think it's more likely than not that we will have to raise Bank Rate further. But I haven't reached a firm decision on that," via rtrs

tks sir david


Israel MacroMicro  13:39:40 GMT - 08/09/2022  
opened long NQ @ 13040

for 18/30 hours from now

let's see


Mtl JP  11:38:02 GMT - 08/09/2022  
GBP 1.21
UK GDP on Friday
-
players likely skeptical about Bailey BoE's inflation fighting rate-hiking virility - also betting on his wimpi-ness vs politicians

R 1.2125
S 1.2040, 1.2000 and lower


GVI Forex 06:50:54 GMT - 08/09/2022  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Alun John

The lull before U.S. inflation data affords a moment to reflect on a darkening geopolitical backdrop.

MORNING BID-Geopolitics lurks beneath markets' still waters



PAR 06:28:51 GMT - 08/09/2022  
Markets looking for a share buyback bonanza over the coming months as corporate America wants to avoid the new tax.

Corporate America is share buyback champion of the world.

When new chip factories need to be built corporate America turns to the US taxpayers.

When electric vehicles need to be sold corporate America turns to the US taxpayer.

When airlines are in trouble they turn to the US taxpayer.

What happened to free markets and the liberal economy? Dead and buried?








Mtl JP  18:20:04 GMT - 08/08/2022  
EURO 1.0190
-
slinking back under 1.02
Sup (and trgt): 1.0165-1.0155


Mtl JP  15:52:23 GMT - 08/08/2022  
a win is a win
A New York Fed survey showed
-
* A New York Fed survey showed that respondents in July expected inflation to run at a 6.2% pace over the next year and a 3.2% rate for the next three years.

* That marks a big drop-off from the respective 6.8% and 3.6% results from the June survey.

* Expectations for food increases fell at the fastest rate in survey history and the second-fastest for gasoline prices.

Consumers’ expectations of future inflation decreased significantly in win for the Federal Reserve - jeff cox



Mtl JP  13:42:58 GMT - 08/08/2022  
EURO 1.0204
-
currently puppy s in 1.0220 - 1.0184 range
would need to bust N of 1.0225 and hold for more UP


Mtl JP  11:16:39 GMT - 08/08/2022  
 
DLRx 106.18-ish
-
ahead of NY session
dollar taking slight breather after friday's rally


Mtl JP  10:51:29 GMT - 08/08/2022  
 
daly's "50bps absolutely"
amuzing
-
"risk" players
maybe the FEDs will have to wheel out 100bps+ theoreticians
IF they want to stop laughter on w/street


GVI Forex 08:53:38 GMT - 08/08/2022  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Anshuman Daga

Lingering worries about a big U.S. slowdown were blown away last Friday after July payrolls data smashed market expectations.

MORNING BID-Just an illusion



Mtl JP  22:40:17 GMT - 08/07/2022  
mary "$8,000/week salary" daly
half a percent
-
extract"
"MARGARET BRENNAN: So it would still be appropriate to raise rates in September by half a percent?

DALY: Absolutely. And we need to be data dependent. It could. We need to leave our minds open. We have two more inflation reports coming out, another jobs report. We continue to collect all the information from the context we talk to you to see how this is working its way through the economy. But you mentioned, you know, wage growth a little bit above 5% inflation. Last print at 9.1%. Americans are losing ground every day. So the focus has to be on bringing inflation down."

Aug. 7, 2022, on "Face the Nation."



Mtl JP  22:01:06 GMT - 08/07/2022  
biden is now healed and according to his doc O’Connor “He will safely return to public engagement and presidential travel”

Mohamed's "collateral damage" worry:
“What I'm most worried about ... is the collateral damage that's gonna be associated with inflation coming down because the Fed has been so late in responding,” El-Erian Aug 7th

Between the FED gang and Bond types appears to be biggly serious communication problem: bond guys are talking n pricing a pivot while the FED gang is still peddling its committed to fighting inflation mushroom feeding mixture propaganda

Asserts CNN's Julia Horowitz that
The market read the Federal Reserve all wrong
but for some reason , unlike jeff cox, neglected to give mention to Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (BS in advertising and journalism from the University of Kansas and a JD from the Washburn University School of Law)

* Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports the central bank’s recent 0.75 percentage point rate increases and believes they should continue until inflation is subdued.

* “My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” she added in a speech Saturday.

* "Markets are anticipating a third straight big increase when the central bank meets again in September.

"my view" ... my donkey
but as long as the FEDs will continue to attempt to prevail over bond types and try to re-align then by sending out corrective smoke signals we should see volatility.

Who will win ? For the FED to "win" they ll have to wheel out higher caliber than bowman.

Fed Governor Bowman sees ‘similarly sized’ rate hikes ahead after three-quarter point moves



dc CB  17:28:57 GMT - 08/07/2022  
On Friday afternoon, Tesla announced the following:

Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) announced today that the Board of Directors has approved and declared a three-for-one split of Tesla’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors. Each stockholder of record on August 17, 2022 will receive a dividend of two additional shares of common stock for each then-held share, to be distributed after close of trading on August 24, 2022. Trading will begin on a stock split-adjusted basis on August 25, 2022.

The last day to get in before the stock split will be August 17, 2022.



dc CB  15:09:09 GMT - 08/07/2022  
It is very simple: if you’d ask most citizens of whichever EU country if they are willing to risk being unable to feed and heat their children in order to support Ukraine and Zelensky, they would say NO. Hell no! But that is what they’re all being pushed towards.

This is not due to some inevitable market mechanism, it’s because the west decided to halt all Russian imports after the latter’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine. All western leaders found that reason enough to cut all, or nearly all, imports from Russia. Gas, oil, fertilizer, food. Essentials.

The WEF makes sure no western leader gets elected who is not a member of their club. There’s only one path to power these days.

“Leaders” like Trudeau and Rutte think they have this under control, that they can make the farmers do what their governments say they must, if need be with assistance from police or even the army.

But you cannot send cops and soldiers against your farmers, because 1) they make your food, 2) the people support them, 3) they have a centuries-old democratic right to be farmers, and 4) they don’t take no sh*t for an answer.

Winter of Anger



Mtl JP  10:15:34 GMT - 08/07/2022  
peasants will pay. more.
-
rewarding poor choices made by their gov'ts

05 Aug 2022 Moody’s downgraded the outlook for economies of
Italy, Czech Republic and Slovakia
to ‘negative’

Moody's Rating Action



Mtl JP  20:27:17 GMT - 08/05/2022  
 
what IF , especially over the week-end , there is a Crisis


Israel MacroMicro  20:26:40 GMT - 08/05/2022  
Cock/Biter


pass the test of being sober and my neighbor to consider letting you to walk his dog, better than sticking your tongue in old Roman arses. enjoy your weekend licker :)


dc CB  20:14:31 GMT - 08/05/2022  
mini/micro
---about about the Roman empire---

that was my reference. humans never change, only their names/places

Israel Launches "Pre-emptive" Airstrikes On Gaza, Vowing To Wipe Out Islamic Jihad....Border tensions soared after Monday's brutal arrest of Islamic Jihad commander...

Chinese Ambassador Called To White House After Overnight Sanctions: "We Do Not Want A Crisis"

______________leave you all with a tune.
gwe

The Envoy- live 1982



Israel MacroMicro  20:00:55 GMT - 08/05/2022  
Joey cannot afford the El-Erian medication, as it makes more money than god :)


GVI Forex 19:32:28 GMT - 08/05/2022  
if bond yields don’t lie then what does an inverted yield curve 2-10) at 40 bps tell us?

Recession???


dc CB  19:11:01 GMT - 08/05/2022  
what "medication" Mohamed is advising

obviously the stuff that Joey takes.


Israel MacroMicro  18:54:19 GMT - 08/05/2022  
frank, I can see your reasoning for bonds not being a liar. let us hope your holding of bonds is much lower than 40% of your assets.

what is your case about Karine Jean-Pierre, a liar or not?


PAR, about the Roman empire, I assume that you, Mr. Meisler and JP are raising memories from your youth during that era. you three went long way together :)

have a great weekend all


Mtl JP  18:51:44 GMT - 08/05/2022  
10-yr 2.834%
cognitive trap - apparently happens even to "experts"
-
lots and lots will have been said over the next short while
about advisor / consultant to the FED Mohamed's assertion that it ..."got itself into a cognitive trap"

the next trading theme will be ...
what "medication" Mohamed is advising to cure the affliction AND will the FEDs swallow AND act on it.


Mtl JP  17:16:44 GMT - 08/05/2022  
bonds do not lie
-
who does ?


swiss frank  16:45:49 GMT - 08/05/2022  
What if the Fed manages to thread the needle here? Meaning:
- Raise rates enough so all those old people leaving the work force will have some interest income/pensions.
- Reduce consumer inflation (food, energy, housing).
- Wage growth (which remember not too long ago they were trying to poke along) comes not too hot, not too cold, but just right.
- While labor market stays strong.
- Supply chain issues find a new balance.
- And markets get comfortable with growth outlooks and valuations.

Bonds don't lie.



Mtl JP  16:34:39 GMT - 08/05/2022  
politician mocking the FED banker
a good idea ?
-
Bloomberg
Biden Touts Jobs Report as White House Insists Economy Strong
President Joe Biden said the unemployment rate falling to pre-pandemic lows was “the result of my economic plan” as the White House sought credit for surging jobs gains that bolstered the president’s insistence the nation has not fallen into recession.

Reuters
Biden feels well, still tests positive for COVID-19 - doctor
U.S. President Joe Biden continues to feel "very well" while still testing positive for COVID-19, the White House physician said on Friday.
... and will continue to follow "strict isolation measures." - foxnews

Mohamed:
The #jobs report is good news for the #WhiteHouse, and will be seen as validating their policy approach.
A few blocks away at the #Fed, however, it’s neither. Instead, it’s consistent with lagging policy and a central bank that’s on the wrong side of ongoing analytical debates.


PAR  16:20:50 GMT - 08/05/2022  
Since the Roman Empire inflation is used to make the people poor and the rulers rich.


Mtl JP  15:37:21 GMT - 08/05/2022  
EURO 1.0155
going out on a limb
-
something suggests
euro is going to close inside +/- 45pips around 1.015
maybe


HK Kevin  15:28:45 GMT - 08/05/2022  
Stock market movers are very clever. Hold it back to higher level, allowing them to unload inventory stocks.


Mtl JP  14:43:59 GMT - 08/05/2022  
90°F in the shade
- 525K additional stuffed wallet$
-- wallmart sticking out x-mass krapp
it is a mad mad race for the heeled wallet
coz FED-willing , it is not going to last


PAR 13:51:59 GMT - 08/05/2022  
As in a Hollywood feel-good movie.

A happy ending to a good week for US stocks.


Mtl JP  13:23:18 GMT - 08/05/2022  
note that 0.0 is not the price line :-)


Mtl JP  13:21:57 GMT - 08/05/2022  
who wants to call euro's
LoD and closing price


Mtl JP  13:07:57 GMT - 08/05/2022  
more folks taking jobs = more money in consumer pockets = more want for thinggies = ... not what FED's Sacrifice Ratio is about

and bit of a setback to powell's "adjustment" in labour market dream

"We think it's necessary to have growth slow down. We actually think we need a period of growth below potential, in order to create some slack so that the supply side can catch up. We also think that there will be, in all likelihood, some softening in labor market conditions. And those are things that we expect...to get inflation back down on the path to 2 percent." Powell last week.

so ... interest rates to a little above 4% to ease demand


Mtl JP  12:54:31 GMT - 08/05/2022  
EURO 1.016x
-
1.01550 looks like S price line
BUT if it gives 1.13-1.1250 come on radar

clearly players have been snookered by "experts"


GVI Forex 08:48:08 GMT - 08/05/2022  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Alun John

U.S. payrolls data day is dawning shortly and set to tell us whether markets should be more worried about inflation or a recession.

MORNING BID-Paying particular heed to payrolls



dc CB  00:31:30 GMT - 08/05/2022  
Mtl JP 22:13 GMT 08/03
something propelled NatGas about $0.60 up
more in demand ?
______________________________________
another clue. 8PM EDT

US NatGas Rebounds As Major Texas LNG Terminal Set For Fast Reopening
"This is likely a little faster, and a little stronger [in terms of exports] than the natural-gas markets were expecting."

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/natural-gas-soars-major-us-lng-terminal-set-fast-reopening


dc CB  18:30:41 GMT - 08/04/2022  
Dan Diamond
Updated August 4, 2022 at 1:16 p.m. EDT

Biden officials plan to declare monkeypox a public health emergency
as soon as Thursday in an effort to galvanize awareness and unlock additional flexibility and funding to fight the virus’s spread.

The declaration would come from Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who is expected to discuss the plan at an afternoon briefing, said two officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment.

Wash Post



dc CB  18:19:51 GMT - 08/04/2022  
data that's driving the rout in oil prices is barely believable

Are Americans really driving less than summer 2020?

ForexLive



Mtl JP  13:51:21 GMT - 08/04/2022  
EURO 1.0194-ish
just ahead 10am fix
-
currently puppy in 1.02 - 1.0174 range


Mtl JP  13:02:21 GMT - 08/04/2022  
GBP 1.2115; LoD 1.20649
-
looks like friday's low = Sup price line

market's focus now on something else
maybe bonds 'n yields


Mtl JP  11:11:57 GMT - 08/04/2022  
IF deepah: 1.1925ish


Mtl JP  11:07:56 GMT - 08/04/2022  
trgt 1.2063 fr low,
maybe deepah


Mtl JP  11:05:00 GMT - 08/04/2022  
.50bps
-
GBP is a sell


Mtl JP  10:46:04 GMT - 08/04/2022  
some good bad news
-
UK inflation will soar to ‘astronomical’ levels over next year, thinktank warns - The Guardian Aug 3, 2022
The rise will force the Bank of England to hike interest rates higher and for longer than previously expected, says NIESR

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research also forecast a long recession that would last into next year and hit millions of the most vulnerable households, especially in the worst-off parts of the country.

NIESR said gas price rises and the escalating cost of food would send inflation to 11% before the end of the year while the retail prices index (RPI), which is used to set rail fares and student loans repayments, is expected to hit 17.7%.


Mtl JP  10:03:59 GMT - 08/04/2022  
GBP 1.2180
BoE in one hr
-
what beckons is an opportunity to make some moola off the BoE


GVI Forex 09:37:02 GMT - 08/04/2022  
A look at the day ahead in markets from Alun John

Will the Bank of England make history today by raising rates by 50 basis points? Probably.

Morning Bid: History and fifty club beckon BOE



Mtl JP  02:03:32 GMT - 08/04/2022  
odds r eur puppy ranges for a while after it crapped from 1.029ish something fierce and 1.01 , essentially, held Sup


FW CS  01:43:01 GMT - 08/04/2022  
Euro if it sees par again will not hold. Cb probably realize this too and are trying to stabilize eurusd


Mtl JP  01:33:16 GMT - 08/04/2022  
EURO 1.0172-ish
rallying some
-
Res 1.02-1.025-ish


dc CB  00:41:26 GMT - 08/04/2022  
Sep Nymex natural gas (NGU22) on Wednesday closed sharply higher by +0.560 (+7.27%). Nat-gas prices Wednesday recovered from a 1-1/2 week low and rallied sharply after a midday update to the Global Forecast System weather model showed hotter Midcontinent temperatures from August 8-12, which will boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to supply power for increased air conditioning usage.

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/9477539/nat-gas-soars-on-the-outlook-for-hot-us-temps


Mtl JP  23:52:13 GMT - 08/03/2022  
more good bad news
-
Gazprom said Wednesday that delivery of a turbine needed to keep gas flowing to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline was "impossible" due to sanctions on Moscow. - yahoo news

Germany to Gazprom: Your Turbine Is Ready, Let Us Deliver It - NYT
Olaf Scholz showed off a refurbished turbine for the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that Russia has said is the reason it can’t send more gas to Germany.

...“It is obvious that nothing, nothing at all, stands in the way of the further transport of this turbine and its installation in Russia. It can be transported and used at any time. There is no technical reason whatsoever for the reduction of gas supplies.” Mr. Scholz (and gas turbine expert now) told reporters

** miaw **


Mtl JP  22:13:36 GMT - 08/03/2022  
something propelled NatGas about $0.60 up
more in demand ?

larry spoketh earlier
- Inflation is a ‘consequence of the overheating of the economy’
- 'I don't think we're in a recession'

FED gang pushing on markets to perish the thought of 'jerome pivot' and claims of credibility with one and all currently eliciting howls and laughter
"more work to be done"


Mtl JP  18:34:04 GMT - 08/03/2022  
boyz n gulz
to test your sense of humor or perhaps tolerance for sarcasm below a link to zh's
-
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 - 01:17 PM
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who makes $422,900 per year - and scrambled out of dozens of investments last year shortly before the Fed finalized strict new limits on policymakers' portfolios - just had her 'Nancy Pelosi Ice Cream" moment, dropping a sidewalk-spattering turd from her ivory tower on the average struggling American.

"I Don't Feel The Pain Of Inflation Anymore" Says Wealthy SF Fed Chair From Ivory Tower



Mtl JP  17:17:06 GMT - 08/03/2022  
I would be remiss if I did not include that he claims that

..."we have the credibility with households, businesses and markets required to deliver that outcome over time and we will."

And with that, he’d welcome your questions and insights.



Mtl JP  17:10:01 GMT - 08/03/2022  
mushroom farmer parade
-
Barkin says
- "We are committed to returning inflation to our 2% target and have made clear we will do what it takes"

but ... (putting on my Depends) ... not immediately, not suddenly not predictably. coz global events and other gremlins may not co-operate BUT ... aping previous assertions by a colleague: the FED had tools to create inflation and has the tools to murder it.
and by gawd as witness, murder it "WE WILL !" (pounds fist on podium)

***
kashkari is next. at 14:30


Mtl JP  16:49:48 GMT - 08/03/2022  
 
GAP
now POOF! , good puppy
-
some of my best moola is when I nurse a beer on the deck


Mtl JP  15:40:54 GMT - 08/03/2022  
euro 1.0144
-
11:45 barkin's turn to yak
- about "inflation"

maybe euro s done heaving and s interested in closing the gap now next
around 65


Mtl JP  14:39:13 GMT - 08/03/2022  
of note may be that bullard re-paraded his views and wants on cnbc's squawkbox short while ago


Mtl JP  14:30:47 GMT - 08/03/2022  
14:25 - Jay r u suffering "Daly" ?

letssee if the parade of mushroom feeders changes players nonchalance about what they say about inflation fighting commitments


Mtl JP  14:27:52 GMT - 08/03/2022  
technically euro
S at 1.0115 and 1.01


GVI 14:25:39 GMT - 08/03/2022  
USD yields up, USD up, but stocks also up (??) after ISM services PMI


Mtl JP  14:23:02 GMT - 08/03/2022  
 
I am showing a GAP down
-
not gunning for it close atm but likely sell the puppy when gap closes


Mtl JP  14:12:32 GMT - 08/03/2022  
players piszing on earlier FED gang yakkers' opinions and wants about inflation and fighting tactics

more FED "inflation fighter" messaging heros on deck today starting with
harker at bottom of hour
barkin just before luch hour and...
kashkari fireside chats mid-aft


Mtl JP  14:01:55 GMT - 08/03/2022  
10am ... and euro gaps down


swiss frank  13:25:16 GMT - 08/03/2022  
Not only the smartest political woman. The smartest POLITICIAN.

That said the competition is pretty weak.


swiss frank  13:24:18 GMT - 08/03/2022  
Yep.


PAR 13:11:16 GMT - 08/03/2022  
Isabel Diaz Ayuso is the smartest political woman in Spain and most probably in Europe.

Let's hope Giorgia Meloni in Italy follows her example.



Mtl JP  13:10:42 GMT - 08/03/2022  
frank 13:01 that sounds like revolutionary anti-social radicalism and insubordination. in need of harsh re-education treatment


swiss frank  13:01:55 GMT - 08/03/2022  
BUT WAIT!

Not quite total commitment.

Isabel Ayuso, president of the Community of Madrid says NO! We will not shut down. This decree generates insecurity and scares off tourism and consumption. It causes darkness, poverty, sadness.

almost total commitment.....


swiss frank  12:58:49 GMT - 08/03/2022  
Spain totally committed to doing their part on the energy saving.
1. Shop windows and monuments must turn out lights by 10 pm.
2. Air con can not be set lower than 27 degrees (about 80 f)
3. Businesses must keep doors closed when AC is on.
4. Businesses urged to allow more working from home.
5. Men that do insist on working from the office given option of not wearing ties.

Total Commitment.


Mtl JP  12:53:48 GMT - 08/03/2022  
controversial. naturally.
too rational, too practical, not ideological enough
-
Controversial former German chancellor calls for activation of Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

“If you don’t want to use Nord Stream 2, you have to bear the consequences. And they will be huge in Germany, too,” he told Stern. “If things get really tight, there is this pipeline, and with both Nord Stream pipelines there would be no supply problem for German industry and German households.”

Gerhard Schröder confirms meeting with Putin again



Mtl JP  12:27:40 GMT - 08/03/2022  
must, solidarity
I have confidence in european princes(ses)
-
Borrell: "Europe is facing a perfect storm: energy prices are up, economic growth is down and winter is coming. The Kremlin is using energy as a political weapon. We must prepare ourselves for a possible gas cut-off, principally through savings, diversification and solidarity among us"

looks like EU peasants are about to get a taste of the harsher side of living under EU princes boot heel: draconian edicts, draconian rules and associated draconian fine and jail penalties.


PAR 12:10:00 GMT - 08/03/2022  
Federal Reserve officials effectively pushed back against a narrative in financial markets over the past week that policymakers are envisioning a pivot away from tightening amid evidence of a turn in the economy.

Four Fed district-bank presidents highlighted in remarks on Tuesday that there was no sign yet of inflation easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said “we are still resolute and completely united” in the objective of getting inflation down around the 2% inflation target.

Remarks from Daly, Cleveland’s Loretta Mester, and Chicago’s Charles Evans helped trigger a surge in Treasury yields Tuesday as traders reconsidered how much more the central bank will raise interest rates and whether it could move to cut them in early 2023.




Mtl JP  11:38:18 GMT - 08/03/2022  
BoE has only one way to "surprise!" players now


Mtl JP  11:35:03 GMT - 08/03/2022  
GBP 1.2200
-
BoE tomorrow.
- variously expected to hike by 20 or 50bps.

Previous 25bps hikes only embarrassed the BoE as "inflation fighter", done nothing reduce inflation and more importantly peasants' inflation perceptions.

Now inflation perception screamings about 15% inflation coming.
and nevermind political electoral comedy


Mtl JP  11:20:16 GMT - 08/03/2022  
EURO 1.0195, us 10-yr 2.741%
-
FED mushroom feeders came out in force yesty attempting to reverse player perception of a slowing FED. If players further fade optimism about ECB hikes, this puppy - theory says - goes DOwn



Belgrade Knez  11:03:13 GMT - 08/03/2022  
jkt abel 08:54 GMT 08/03/2022
abel,
and what were they supposed to do?
to shoot down the plane?
everyone knows China will not shoot down the plane, so Pelosi proceeded to Taiwan but still landed in complete darkness!
I am sure China will respond in some way, and I am sure US won't like it.


jkt abel  08:54:50 GMT - 08/03/2022  
China is just toothless tiger? Pelosi just pissed in front of their door and got away with it


Hk Dusty  02:17:18 GMT - 08/03/2022  
Lol ab! Zero percent chance of that happening. CCP rulers are much smarter than their dumb citizens that post on online forums…..



Mtl JP  08:47:38 GMT - 08/02/2022  
unless, potentially, pelosi is jake sullivan's causa belli of "pearl harbour moment" useful idiot in his attempt to change murrican peoples' too-positive view of china and to convince them that china is a global threat

the Q is, will china oblige jake.
my bet is: no (if I know chinese mind-set)


Mtl JP  08:00:29 GMT - 08/02/2022  
SnP 4100
-
ab 07:40 pelosi is a scratch-n-sniff on a page of political history

from Jay's
[Forex View] How to Trade in a Politically Driven Market
Political markets are generally difficult to trade as there is often a short shelf life before whatever crisis is dominating is diffused. This suggests going with the flow while the market is on high alert but be aware that the factors driving it can fade quickly.

Typical safe havens in times of risk-off and political stress are the dollar, jpy and chf. It is important to see whether any are correlating with moves in equity and/or bond markets.

So, the bottom line is that politically driven markets can be traded if in sync with what is driving the flows but can be a difficult experience if you overstay your welcome doing so or get caught by a surprise headline. The latter suggests you need to be light on your feet as the market will have a tendency to overreact to news.

fwiw


hk ab  07:40:46 GMT - 08/02/2022  
seems to me a massive risk OFF is brewing if NP dies tonight.........

which is not a ruled-out possibility.






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

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